Complex Security Research Articles

Boko Haram-Induced Forced Migration: Implications for Social and Economic Development in the Lake Chad Basin

In Africa, and notably the Lake Chad Basin (LCB), Boko Haram is a major threat to human security. The region, which spans 427,500 km2 and contains large ungoverned areas, is made up of Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad, and Niger. Boko Haram has been responsible for several attacks in Northeast Nigeria since 2003 and is also the leading cause of forced migration in the Lake Chad Basin. In northeastern Nigeria and other LCB countries, this insurgency has caused widespread migration and increased the humanitarian crisis, socio-economic, and environmental consequences. This research aims to examine the developmental challenges emerging from Boko Haram-induced forced displacement in the LCB. Empirical evidence suggests that the Lake Chad Basin countries’ governments have failed to contain this group's aggression. However, there are still gaps in the literature regarding how this insurgency has affected social and economic lives of displaced people in the region. The study utilized a case study design, documentary method of data collection, and content analysis as the analytical technique. The study applies the Human Security Theory and Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT) as the theoretical framework. Ultimately, the findings of this study revealed that forced migration severs social ties, leading to economic, social, and psychological impacts, including family separation and loss, with families often split up abruptly due to attacks and evacuation. In Addition, negative economic impacts disproportionately affect impoverished individuals, exacerbating chronic poverty and hindering their ability to escape poverty due to price volatility and wage declines. It was recommended that the governments of Lake Chad Basin countries should develop and implement policies that support the economic integration of refugees and displaced individuals, including measures to facilitate access to employment and promoting self-reliance and resilience. They should also foster initiatives that strengthen social ties and networks among displaced populations to facilitate integration into host communities and mitigate the negative impacts of social disconnection.

Implikacje wojny rosyjsko-ukraińskiej dla środowiska bezpieczeństwa Polski

The prevailing features of the environment of modern countries are uncertainty, chaos and a completely new quality of emerging changes. The contemporary international environment is complex and multidimensional, and the conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing since 2014 is a factor that significantly destabilizes it. When analyzing the situation in the region in the context of regional security complexes, issues related to Poland’s security should also be viewed through the prism of the situation in Ukraine, which is its direct neighbor. Russia’s attack on Ukraine destabilized the security environment in Europe and strengthened the concerns of those in power to ensure Poland’s security and mobilized the international community to take active action. The aim of this article is therefore to try to find an answer to the question: what is the state of Poland’s security environment? What implications does the war in Ukraine have for Poland’s security?In order to effectively solve the research problem, an attempt will be made to answer the following research questions: What is Poland’s security environment in terms of the changes that have occurred in the international arena as a result of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine? What consequences does the war in Ukraine have for the security of Poland? Is it possible to predict, albeit to a limited extent, scenarios for Poland’s security environment in the Ukrainian context? This article is an attempt to look at Poland’s security environment in the aspect of changes that have occurred in the international arena as a result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Breaking the Newtonian Fetish: Conceptualizing War Differently for a Changing World

Explaining what a military’s social paradigm concerning conflict and war is requires a theoretical approach to both frame the core constructs and offer feasible alternatives. This article introduces social paradigm theory for military application and how most modern, technologically advanced militaries sustain a Newtonian-styled worldview concerning warfare and what constitutes war. The Newtonian-styled war paradigm gained prominence during the last five centuries, yet is now becoming increasingly insufficient and possibly irrelevant. The integration of ever-increasingly sophisticated artificial intelligence into nearly all aspects of warfare will require new ways of thinking and how teams of humans and AI systems collaborate in complex security contexts immediately. The new combination of the space domain, cyberspace, those military forces associated with these new domains, and special operations activities are of increased focus for how and why conflict may change, particularly within an overarching traditional nuclear deterrence between state competitors. This requires a military paradigmatic shift, moving away from Newtonian constructs.

Portfolio optimization with mental accounts under uncertain random environment and butterfly optimization algorithm with adaptive strategies

In complex security markets, uncertainty and randomness may coexist. The investors hold different risk attitudes toward different investment objectives in reality. In order to reflect this phenomenon, this paper applies mental accounts to portfolio optimization in an uncertain random environment. Firstly, considering the influence of transaction costs and diversification degree, this paper establishes an uncertain random mean-absolute semi-deviation-entropy bi-objective optimization model. Then the bi-objective model is converted to two single-objective models through three steps. Secondly, the equivalent forms of the models are deduced when the return rates of random risky securities are assumed to be normal random variables and the return rates of uncertain risky securities are assumed to be linear and zigzag uncertain variables. Furthermore, we propose an improved butterfly optimization algorithm (IBOA) to solve the two single-objective models. Finally, numerical simulations are presented to analyze the practicability and effectiveness of the models with different mental accounts and the IBOA algorithm. The results indicate that the IBOA algorithm is effective and putting money into more mental accounts may gain higher returns.

Navigating the Transition Tightrope: Challenges Posed by African Union Mission in Somalia Transition on Kenya’s National Security

This study examined Kenya's national security threats resulting from the withdrawal of the Kenya Defence Forces (KDF) from the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM). This was in light of previous Peace Support Operation Transitions (PSO) in Iraq and Afghanistan, where regional instability resulted from troop withdrawals. Therefore, it analysed the impact of PSO experiences on national security, aiming to identify potential threats to the national security of Troop-Contributing Countries (TCC) resulting from PSO involvement. The study was a descriptive survey design, and it adopted a mixed-methods approach. The sample size for the study was 400 respondents and 49 key informants. The survey was informed by functionalist theory and strategic theory. Kenyan border counties are predisposed to the security effects of the KDF transition from AMISOM. The study's findings indicated a complex security landscape; that is, weak Somali security forces, insufficient funding for the transition, a short time frame, and the likelihood of a resurgent Al-Shabaab all present significant threats to Kenya's national security. These issues are exacerbated by increased border security problems, such as smuggling and unresolved territorial conflicts. However, the studies indicated that Kenya could mitigate these risks. Influencing the Security Transition Plan (STP) to prioritise strong border security measures can strengthen Kenya's defences. Strengthening the Jubaland buffer zone and helping Somalia's disarmament, demobilisation, and reintegration (DDR) initiatives can help weaken terrorist organisations. Furthermore, efforts in Kenya's border counties' socioeconomic development can reduce the attraction to extreme ideas. Implementing comprehensive border security measures provides an additional avenue for improving overall security. According to the analysis, AMISOM's transition represents a complicated security tightrope walk for Kenya. To counteract the problem, Kenya must address the highlighted dangers while capitalising on existing opportunities. Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) indicated an F statistic of 139.893 and a p value of 0.000<0.05, implying that the transition of the Kenyan contingent in the African Union mission in Somalia significantly predicts Kenya’s national security. The regression weights model showed that the transition of the Kenyan contingent in the African Union mission in Somalia had a negative and significant influence on Kenya’s national security (β = -0.368, P =.000<.05). Recommendations include actively shaping the STP, strengthening the Jubaland buffer zone, and stationing enough security personnel along the border. Promoting bilateral and multilateral engagement with Somalia is critical for resolving lingering concerns and maintaining regional stability. By taking these steps, Kenya can protect its national security throughout AMISOM's handover.

Next-Generation Protection: Leveraging Federated Learning and Blockchain for Intrusion Detection in Smart Vehicle Network

Smart Car's era ushers in new challenges, some of which are in the field of information security such as wise cyber-attack prevention. Traditional IDS systems would lose everything in such a dynamic environment with their centralized architectures, and this approach could create single points of failure and privacy issues. Along with interconnectedness, cyber security becomes an inevitable problem as smart vehicles are incorporated into a daily life. Traditional security mechanisms usually lack scalability and privacy, which brings about the need to develop alter-nate or innovative methods. This research demonstrates a mixed security system that combines both federated learning and blockchain technologies to improve intrusion detection in smart vehicular networks. We evaluated the effectiveness of this framework using four machine learn-ing models as respectively; Support Vector Machine (SVM), Decision Tree, Neural Network, and Random Forest. Empirical results show that SVM had the highest accuracy of both 93.88% in training and 91.84% in validation, which is higher than Decision Tree, Neural Network, and Random Forest models. These findings evidently demonstrate that the federated learning and blockchain are a strong solution for the plausible security of smart vehicle networks; with SVM being employed mostly in complex security scenarios. DOI: https://doi.org/10.52783/pst.353

Intricacies of French engagement in Sahel with peace prospects

The Sahel region faces an extreme human security crisis with complex security challenges rooted in historical, ethnic, and geopolitical ties. Decades of armed violence and unstable socio-political systems have led to deteriorating security conditions, with crisis hotspots diversifying across the region. The mobilization of destabilizing actors has necessitated external support, yet outcomes have proven inadequate. This research explores France's engagement in the region, transitioning with dynamic policy shifts towards a more “Sahelian solutions for Sahelian problems” oriented approach. However, externally led peacebuilding exercises have fallen short due to lack of coherence, worsening conditions in the region, leading to adverse effects like the emergence of a 'coup belt'. Thus, this study aims to identify sustainable peace alternatives by investigating key questions like: How has France's role in the Sahel transformed, particularly in response to policy shifts and troop withdrawals? Why does France remain a prominent security provider despite changes in its military posture? What are the limitations and outcomes of peacebuilding processes employed in the region by various actors? How effectively can peacebuilding discourses translate into tangible security improvements for the Sahelian people? Thus, this paper aims to demystify conflict dynamics in the region, analyzing France’s evolving role in the Sahel and evaluating collaborative efforts to address security threats and promote development, empowering local actors. Additionally, it explores peacebuilding theoretically to understand Sahel's ground realities. Through a review of past interventions, it highlights limitations in fostering positive peace, offering recommendations for coherent policies and collaboration in the Sahel. In this regard, the paper explores contemporary events through peace, security, and policy lenses.

Analysis of Damage Handling in The PT Petrokimia Gresik Factory Conveyor Safety System Using The Naive Bayes Method

In the industrial world, the speed of the production process plays a very important role in influencing industrial profits. One of the factors that determines production speed is the conveyor. PT. Petrokimia Gresik is one of the industries that uses conveyors, which pays great attention to accuracy and control of material speed. The function of the conveyor is to send raw materials from PT Petrokimia Gresik fertilizer to be processed. Three safety devices are installed on this tool, namely the low speed switch, outlying belt and cable pull switch. However, this complex security system makes it difficult for field technicians to handle conveyor problems. Problems that occur with conveyors, especially in the electrical and instrumentation parts, are sometimes difficult to find. Therefore, the author had the idea to conduct research related to conveyor problem solving analysis using the naive Bayes classification method. The results of the calculation between naive Bayes calculations and expert opinion show 100% agreement, which is an optimal result. It is hoped that these results can help field technicians in diagnosing and resolving problems when problems occur with conveyors.

State Control over the Threats of the Outbound Tourism Sector in Russia

The relevance of the study lies in the fact that currently the field of outbound tourism in Russia is facing a number of threats and problems that can negatively affect the activities of manufacturers of a tourist product. These threats may be related to changes in the political situation, escalation of conflicts in the international economic arena, economic crises, changes in sectoral national and foreign legislation, and other environmental factors. The research conducted by the author makes it possible to identify destructive elements of the external environment that can cause signifi cant threats to manufacturers of a tourist product, that is, for tour operators in the field of outbound tourism. In the article, the author considers the factors and conditions contributing to the emergence of threats to the activities of manufacturers of tourist products in the field of outbound tourism in Russia. Based on the application of the structural analysis method, destructive elements of the external environment of the outbound tourism sector have been identified, which can be regulated using state regulation tools. The author, based on the application of activity analysis, also identified contradictions in the functioning of the mechanism of state regulation in terms of ensuring comprehensive security and countering identified threats in the fi eld of outbound tourism in Russia. This allows us to identify the shortcomings of the existing system of state regulation in this area, suggest ways to improve it, as well as develop specific measures to prevent the threats to the complex security of all subjects of relations in the economic sphere of outbound tourism of the Russian Federation considered in the article. Thus, the study is relevant and necessary in order to help manufacturers of a tourist product and the mechanism of state administration of the Russian Federation in the field of outbound tourism in Russia to minimize risks and ensure the comprehensive safety of the tourism industry of the Russian Federation.

Being My Neighbours’ Keeper: Interrogating the Management of the Terrorism–Migration Nexus in West Africa Sub-Region

Cooperation among neighbouring countries is critical for managing security threats like terrorism and migration. Despite their proximity, states often struggle to cooperate for various reasons, including a lack of solidarity, which can harm regional peace and stability. This study uses qualitative research to examine West African nations’ cooperation in combating Islamist terrorism and aiding affected individuals across borders. Applying regional security complex theory and transnationalism, we assess how terrorism-driven migration impacts regional security, peace and development, highlighting cooperation challenges. This study redefines ‘neighbour’ in international relations, emphasising proactive international solidarity and shared responsibility to address insecurity.

The theory of the regional security complex — Case study, the riparian states of the Black Sea

Known in Antiquity as the Pontus Euxinus, the Black Sea has been the bridge between European and Eastern civilizations since ancient times. Possessing a multi-varied mosaic of cultures, the Black Sea area has facilitated over the centuries, both the development of commercial and political relations and the maintenance and production of conflicts, being like the Sword of Damocles. Located at the intersection of three security zones (Euro-Atlantic, Russian, and Eastern), the Black Sea is currently a vulnerable space in terms of security. Heir to Byzantine culture, most of the riparian states have a complicated internal and external policy, being caught between the idealism of the Western world and the realism of the Eastern European space. At the same time, the revisionism of the Russian Federation and Turkey in terms of foreign policy will also mean a change in the dynamics of the relations between the states bordering the Black Sea, which could result either in its return to the status of a Russian lake or in a division of the spheres of influence between the Russian Federation and Turkey. In this sense, in order to analyze the future security dynamics of the riparian states, we used the theory of the regional security complex, which we consider very appropriate in our study of the Black Sea region.

The future of Afghanistan under Taliban-led regime: challenges and likely scenarios

Since the takeover of the Afghan Taliban, there has been a lack of cohesion on the internal and external front and critical issues, including international recognition, the question of ethnicity, inclusive government, human rights, internal and external security, economy, and regional implication of the security and insecurity. Therefore, this paper aims to explore the likely challenges for the Taliban government in Afghanistan. Being the centre stage of the regional security complex and the diverse ethnic composition, Afghanistan remains an active ground for various fundamental ideologies. The Tehreek Taliban Pakistan (TTP) elements are freely roaming in Afghanistan, along with the news that the Islamic State of Khorasan (ISK) has regrouped itself in various parts of Afghanistan. The questions of terrorist groups are a major concern for the world and the neighbouring states of Afghanistan. Political legitimacy and international recognition are significant challenges for the Taliban regime. Similarly, economic problems and human rights violations are also critical challenges for the Taliban regime. Maintaining good relations with neighbouring states is crucial in ending the diplomatic isolation of the Taliban regime. All these are essential questions for the Taliban regime and the world, and this study has attempted to investigate and analyse possible solutions.

Research on optimal power flow of AC/DC hybrid system for civil more electric aircraft

Modern civil more electric aircraft often use AC/DC systems instead of AC systems to reduce the weight of the power system. Compared with the AC/DC system of the land power grid, the aircraft power system needs to pursue economic operation mode under more complex security constraints. This paper establishes the optimal power flow model of the AC/DC hybrid system of more electric aircraft, which takes minimizing the active power loss of the line as the optimization objective, including the steady-state operation constraints and security constraints of the AC/DC system. The interior point method and prediction correction interior point method are used to solve the model. Then, based on the simplified steady-state model of the B787 power system, the model and algorithm are verified by experiments. The experimental results show that by optimizing the power flow distribution of the power system, the power utilization efficiency of the system has been significantly improved, and its stability and reliability can also be better guaranteed.

Assessing Economic Resilience in NATO Countries: A Comprehensive Defence Perspective

Economic resilience, considered in this paper as the ability to withstand and recover from economic shocks and disruptions, has become a linchpin of ensuring national security and stability. As demonstrated by conflicts such as the one in Ukraine, where economic sanctions were deployed to diminish an adversary’s capacity to sustain its war efforts, it has become evident that military power alone is insufficient in today’s complex security landscape. A comprehensive approach to defence must incorporate economic considerations, as the economic well-being of a nation is intrinsically linked to its overall security. The main research objectives of this paper are to investigate the concept of economic resilience, from the perspective of the concept of comprehensive defence and the ways it is interconnected with other resilience domains, through the development of an economic resilience index outlining the relative economic resilience of the 29 European countries that are NATO members and to propose a methodology for identifying the main factors that influence the economic resilience from a comprehensive defence point of view.

Evaluarea rezilienței economice în țările membre ale NATO din perspectiva conceptului de apărare comprehensivă

Economic resilience, considered in this paper as the ability to withstand and recover from economic shocks and disruptions, has become a linchpin of ensuring national security and stability. As demonstrated by conflicts such as the one in Ukraine, where economic sanctions were deployed to diminish an adversary’s capacity to sustain its war efforts, it has become evident that military power alone is insufficient in today’s complex security landscape. A comprehensive approach to defence must incorporate economic considerations, as the economic well-being of a nation is intrinsically linked to its overall security. The main research objectives of this paper are to investigate the concept of economic resilience, from the perspective of the concept of comprehensive defence and the ways it is interconnected with other resilience domains, through the development of an economic resilience index outlining the relative economic resilience of the 29 European countries that are NATO members and to propose a methodology for identifying the main factors that influence the economic resilience from a comprehensive defence point of view.

아프리카 사헬지역 테러양상 변화에 따른 재외국민 보호 발전방안 연구

The purpose of this study is to examine the factors behind the change in terrorism in the Sahel region of Africa since COVID-19. Since the outbreak of COVID-19, the Global Terrorism Index and the number of deaths due to terrorism have decreased globally. However, the Sahel region in Africa has seen a sharp increase in terrorist attacks and deaths. Over the past few years, the focus of international terrorist organizations has shifted from the Middle East, South Asia, and North Africa to the Sahel, which includes border areas that are relatively difficult for governments to control. The Sahel region has complex security challenges, which have been exacerbated by COVID-19 and are thought to have contributed to the rise in terrorism. Political instability, the decline of democracy, the rise of international terrorist organizations, and new means of attack, such as drones, are some of the factors that have contributed to the rise of terrorism in the Sahel since COVID-19. In order to respond to these threats, the report suggests ways to develop an expatriate protection response system, such as supplementing the expatriate protection crisis management manual, utilizing private security guard capabilities, and establishing anti-drone systems for missions and key facilities.

Regional Security Complex Analysis in Australia, United Kingdom, and United States (AUKUS) Viewpoint to the Rivalry between United States and China in Taiwan

AUKUS is a trilateral defense pact between Australia, United Kingdom, and United States formed in September 2021. Derived from the countries’ initials, AUKUS serves a security partnership to strengthen integrated deterrence. The pact focuses on enhancing nuclear-powered submarines and developing trilateral cooperation on emerging technology. This study’s discussion focuses on regional security complex analysis in AUKUS viewpoint to the rivalry between United States and China in Taiwan. The method used descriptive research with qualitative approach analysis. Tension between these two countries is seen as a manifestation of their respective national interests. The resolution of the regional security complex here can be observed through the strategies prepared to deter China and how AUKUS could achieve advantages regarding Taiwan's status

Dynamic Luminescence of Lead-Doped Calcium Zinc Germanate Clinopyroxene for Multimode Anticounterfeiting.

Anticounterfeiting plays an essential role in authenticating genuine documents and combating forged products. To further advance the anticounterfeiting technology, there is a strong demand to design new functional materials with unique properties that will be appropriate for making multimode complex security labels. Recently, dynamic security labels have emerged as a new type of advanced anticounterfeiting method as they can hold a much higher security level than the traditional static ones. In this work, we report that calcium zinc germanate (CZGO) clinopyroxenes doped with lead ions have several interesting optical properties, such as dynamic fluorescence, long persistent luminescence, and photochromism. We find that the concentration of lead dopants can significantly impact the reaction kinetics as well as the crystallinity and luminescence properties of CZGO phosphors. By fully utilizing these unique properties, we have successfully fabricated several security labels with multilevel information encoding and dynamic optical performance. The combination of multimode and dynamic luminescence makes these labels extremely challenging to illegally duplicate. With further optimization, this lead-doped CZGO clinopyroxene can be well-integrated into modern anticounterfeiting techniques that will generate highly secure anticounterfeiting labels to combat fake products.

Digital Security in Human Security: A Case Study of the Bjorka Hacking Incident

The issue of human security in the digital era has garnered attention in line with technological advancements. The threats to individual privacy and security have become increasingly evident, particularly following the hacking incident by Bjorka in September 2022 in Indonesia. This research applies the concept of human security within the context of digital security, highlighting the inequalities in access and vulnerabilities in online privacy. The Bjorka case reflects the complexity of human security, encompassing freedom from fear, freedom from want, and the freedom to live in dignity concerning the fundamental rights of individuals in human security. The aim of this study is to understand the privacy breaches and data hacking conducted by Bjorka and its impact on the human security of Indonesian citizens, especially from the perspective of digital security. This case study research employs interviews with key respondents from diverse backgrounds, who may have been victims of Bjorka's hacking. The study finds that digital security is not only related to technical aspects but also involves disrupted human security issues, pertaining to basic human rights, access limitations, and the gender identity of individuals involved in the digital world.

Traditions of maghrebi-saheli statehood and islamic radicalism in Early XXI Century

The significance of this research topic is due to the relevance of the problems of modern state-building in the public and political life of North and West Africa. The purpose of the research project is to analyze the causes and consequences of the emergence of radical movements of political Islam in the Maghreb and Sahel at the junction of the XX and XXI centuries and their connection with the shortcomings of national statehood inherent in both African regions. At the same time, the author focuses on the incompleteness of the state-building process, the weakness of institutions and the low level of justification for drawing state borders as concrete examples of such shortcomings that affected the socio-political climate in the Islamized areas adjacent to the Sahara. Based on the materials of sources and the theoretical model of regional security complexes (RSC), the author identified contradictions and diversity in the ideological and value views of the North African ruling circles, analyzed the methodological and spiritual and political foundations of the deeply rooted relationship between criminal and Islamist groups on the example of the activities of Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) (аn organization included in the list of terrorist organizations in theRussian Federation is mentioned) and its leaders - Abd al-Malik Drukdel, Mukhtar Belmukhtar, etc. It is proved that “Islamist internationalism” in the Maghreb and Sahel of the 2000s began to take ethnocultural forms, which was caused by the ‘network’ and ‘umbrell’a nature of the AQIM (аn organization included in the list of terrorist organizations in theRussian Federation is mentioned) structure, in which there was no centralized administrative-territorial management scheme. In addition, the distinctive features of the security policy of modern Algeria are shown and the importance of studying interregional contradictions for characterizing the geopolitical and economic reasons for the strengthening of Islamic radicalism in Africa is revealed.