A numerical model is established to predict the beam quality factor M2 of fiber laser for the first time. The finite-difference beam propagation method (FD-BPM) is introduced to simulate the beam propagation of thulium-doped fiber lasers (TDFLs) with given design parameters. The output beam profile can be calculated for an active fiber with complex refractive index profiles and various bending radii. The beam quality factor M2 can be obtained by the calculated beam profile. The numerical simulation results agree with the reported experiment data with a deviation of less than 10%, which validates the accuracy of the model. This model provides a convenient and efficient approach for designing the high-beam-quality TDFLs with reduced experiment efforts.