Accurately predicting ozone concentration is crucial for human pollution prevention and health protection. In recent years, decomposition ensemble frameworks have been widely applied to ozone concentration forecasting. However, due to the inefficiencies of secondary decomposition and insufficient emphasis on interval predictions, developing a stable and efficient model for ozone concentration prediction remains a challenging task. Therefore, this study proposes a hybrid model based on an improved secondary decomposition algorithm (ISD) and adaptive kernel density estimation (AKDE). The original sequences are initially decomposed and reconstructed using Complex Empirical Mode Decomposition (CEEMD) and K-means clustering based on sample entropy. Subsequently, Optimal Variational Mode Decomposition (OVMD) is employed to address the strong fluctuations in high-frequency components, followed by establishing individual Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) prediction models for each component. The error correction model is then constructed by combining ISD and Gated circulation unit (GRU), culminating in uncertainty quantification using AKDE. Empirical analysis of the Beijing and Shanghai, China datasets shows that the average R2 of their multi-step forecasts are 0.9966 and 0.9938, respectively, which are significantly better than the baseline model.
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