Complex Adaptive Systems Research Articles

Regarding the criminological study of suicidal behavior determinants among law enforcement bodies employees

The article carries out a criminological study of the determinants of suicidal behavior among police officers. The authors note that in recent years there has been a rapid increase in the number of suicides and suicide attempts, including ones among law enforcement officers. It was determined that criminology as a complex science allows to study suicide not only from a legal point of view, but also from the point of view of other sciences, such as sociology and psychology. There is still a debate among legal scholars whether to refer the problem of suicide to the problems of criminological research. According to scientists, the main reason for insufficient attention of criminologists is that suicide is not a criminal offense in most countries of the world.
 It is determined that suicide has become common among employees of internal affairs bodies aged 25 to 40. Given that law enforcement is a critical and extreme type of activity, suicides among law enforcement officers have specific determinants. Law enforcement officers are a category of persons who need special attention in view of the possibility of developing suicidal behavior, since the availability of weapons provides an opportunity to choose the most lethal methods of suicide. The authors agree with the opinion of the researchers that the greatest impact on a law enforcement officer is not so much household and family problems as the psychological burden associated with the service activity. In other words, socio-psychological maladjustment is the main determinant of suicidal behavior among law enforcement officers. Suicidal behavior is often associated with a psychological crisis that can occur under the influence of threats of various kinds. A person in such a crisis state decides that suicide is the only way to solve problems.
 It has been proven that suicidal behavior among law enforcement officers is caused by a number of determinants that individually and collectively have a negative impact on the policeman's personality, as a result of which his social and psychological well­being is destroyed, the protective functions of body and psyche are depleted, and mental disorders and mental illnesses may occur.

Bilingualism-induced language change: what can change, when, and why?

Abstract Contact between languages has become increasingly recognized as a major source of historical change, as linguistic properties are introduced from one language into another. Yet contact does not necessarily lead to such changes. In fact, arguably most of the properties that contrast between two languages in contact at a given place and time do not change. This paper argues that historical and contact linguistics should now look more systematically at different kinds of bilingualism rather than contact per se and should incorporate recent sociolinguistic and psycholinguistic findings from this literature, since these can help us understand both when change occurs and when it does not. In this context we build on the general model of bilingualism, CASP (short for “complex adaptive system principles”), proposed by Filipović and Hawkins and explore its predictions for whether and when changes will occur in one or the other language of a bilingual. In the event that the relevant speech community comprises monolinguals in addition to bilinguals, these changes may then spread to the wider community when social and demographic circumstances favor this. The paper gives illustrative data supporting CASP’s predictions for change in both language usage and grammar among bilinguals.

A maturity model to guide inter-organisational crisis management and response exercises

This paper proposes a six-step maturity ladder for inter-organizational collaborative capability in crisis management and response operations. The paper argues that collaborative crisis management and response can be seen as a case of complex adaptive systems, where awareness of the organizational context of crisis response, technical interoperability, and individual relations are drivers that enable rapid and successful mobilization of crisis response. The maturity ladder provides a link between the capabilities necessary for collaboration possessed by individual crisis response entities and the overall system maturity in terms of collaborative crisis management capability. It can inter alia be used as a basis for a discussion when inter-organizational exercises are appropriate and when focus must remain on the development of the capabilities of individual crisis response entities.

The use of cognitive load theory to assist in the teaching of electrocardiogram interpretation within paramedical science education.

Paramedics are expected to record electrocardiograms (ECGs) as part of their clinical assessment; however, it is an extremely difficult skill to learn and understand as it has a high intrinsic cognitive load which can also be challenging to teach effectively. This article will explore the use of cognitive load theory to assist in the teaching of ECG interpretation within the context of paramedical education. Cognitive load theory can be useful to aid teaching within complex medical and health science domains including clinical skills teaching. The application of cognitive load theory to the teaching of ECG interpretation can be useful as it allows for the development of understanding, building schemata linking information currently being learned to knowledge already gained within the long-term memory, which can maximise germane load by the appropriate selection of intrinsic load, minimising extraneous load therefore not overloading the working memory.

Fault Tree Analysis of Trade-Offs between Environmental Flows and Agricultural Water Productivity in the Lake Urmia Sub-Basin Using Agent-Based Modeling

The recent problems of Lake Urmia (LU) are caused by extensive and complex socio-ecological factors that require a comprehensive approach to consider the relationships between users and identify failure factors at the basin level. For this purpose, an agent-based simulation model of farmers’ social interactions and economic interests (ABM) with various support scenarios and random supervision and training by the government agent is developed to evaluate its impact on independent farmers’ decision-making in the form of a complex adaptive system. Finally, a fault tree analysis (FTA) is created in the Cara-FaultTree 4.1. software to identify scenarios that lead to the non-development technology in irrigation management (non-DTIM) in the LU sub-basin. The assessment of the impact of government supervision and training revealed that the main causes of non-DTIM in the LU basin are a lack of demands from farmers and low awareness among residents of the basin, with failure probabilities of 0.90 and 0.86, respectively. Ultimately, the failure probability of the main event (non-DTIM) was 0.50. The paths of proper training and farmers’ requirements for sustainable agricultural water supply should become more stringent. The results confirm that appropriate measures to strengthen government supervision and training, as well as raise farmers’ awareness of the importance of long-term sustainability of water resources, can lead to greater resilience in the DTIM.

Modeling post-Pleistocene megafauna extinctions as complex social-ecological systems

Abstract The role of human hunting behavior versus climate change in the mass extinction of megafauna during the Late Quaternary is much debated. To move beyond monocausal arguments, we treat human–megafauna–environment relationships as social–ecological systems from a complex adaptive systems perspective, to create an agent-based model that tests how human hunting may interact with environmental stress and animal life history to affect the probability of extinction. Using the extinction of Syncerus antiquus in South Africa at 12–10 ka as a loose inspirational case study, we parameterized a set of experiments to identify cross-feedbacks among environmental dynamics, prey life history, and human hunting pressure that affect extinction probability in a non-linear way. An important anthropogenic boundary condition emerges when hunting strategies interrupt prey animal breeding cycles. This effect is amplified in patchy, highly seasonal environments to increase the chances of extinction. This modeling approach to human behavior and biodiversity loss helps us understand how these types of cross-feedback effects and boundary conditions emerge as system components interact and change. We argue that this approach can help translate archaeological data and insight about past extinction for use in understanding and combating the current mass extinction crisis.

On the emergent “Quantum” theory in complex adaptive systems

We explore the concept of emergent quantum-like theory in complex adaptive systems, and examine in particular the concrete example of such an emergent (or “mock”) quantum theory in the Lotka–Volterra system. In general, we investigate the possibility of implementing the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics on classical systems, and what would be the conditions for using such an approach. We start from a standard description of a classical system via Hamilton–Jacobi (HJ) equation and reduce it to an effective Schrodinger-type equation, with a (mock) Planck constant ▪ , which is system-dependent. The condition for this is that the so-called quantum potential VQ, which is state-dependent, is canceled out by some additional term in the HJ equation. We consider this additional term to provide for the coupling of the classical system under consideration to the ‘environment’. We assume that a classical system could cancel out the VQ term (at least approximately) by fine tuning to the environment. This might provide a mechanism for establishing a stable, stationary states in (complex) adaptive systems, such as biological systems. In particular, we present a general argument as to why the non-equilibrium dynamics of a classical system could lead to a mock quantum description that ensures stability compatible with adaptability. In this context we emphasize the state dependent nature of the mock quantum dynamics and we also introduce the new concept of the mock quantum, state dependent, statistical field theory. We also discuss some universal features of the quantum-to-classical as well as the mock-quantum-to-classical transition found in the turbulent phase of the hydrodynamic formulation of our proposal. In this way we re-frame the concept of decoherence into the concept of ‘quantum turbulence’, i.e. that the transition between quantum and classical could be defined in analogy to the transition from laminar to turbulent flow in hydrodynamics.

Is society caught up in a Death Spiral? Modeling societal demise and its reversal.

Just like an army of ants caught in an ant mill, individuals, groups and even whole societies are sometimes caught up in a Death Spiral, a vicious cycle of self-reinforcing dysfunctional behavior characterized by continuous flawed decision making, myopic single-minded focus on one (set of) solution(s), denial, distrust, micromanagement, dogmatic thinking and learned helplessness. We propose the term Death Spiral Effect to describe this difficult-to-break downward spiral of societal decline. Specifically, in the current theory-building review we aim to: (a) more clearly define and describe the Death Spiral Effect; (b) model the downward spiral of societal decline as well as an upward spiral; (c) describe how and why individuals, groups and even society at large might be caught up in a Death Spiral; and (d) offer a positive way forward in terms of evidence-based solutions to escape the Death Spiral Effect. Management theory hints on the occurrence of this phenomenon and offers turn-around leadership as solution. On a societal level strengthening of democracy may be important. Prior research indicates that historically, two key factors trigger this type of societal decline: rising inequalities creating an upper layer of elites and a lower layer of masses; and dwindling (access to) resources. Historical key markers of societal decline are a steep increase in inequalities, government overreach, over-integration (interdependencies in networks) and a rapidly decreasing trust in institutions and resulting collapse of legitimacy. Important issues that we aim to shed light on are the behavioral underpinnings of decline, as well as the question if and how societal decline can be reversed. We explore the extension of these theories from the company/organization level to the society level, and make use of insights from both micro-, meso-, and macro-level theories (e.g., Complex Adaptive Systems and collapsology, the study of the risks of collapse of industrial civilization) to explain this process of societal demise. Our review furthermore draws on theories such as Social Safety Theory, Conservation of Resources Theory, and management theories that describe the decline and fall of groups, companies and societies, as well as offer ways to reverse this trend.

Analysis of the Implementation of Science Learning based on Teachers' Technological Pedagogical and Content Knowledge (TPACK) Capabilities

Teachers play a crucial role in facilitating students' understanding and making science material more accessible. To achieve this, educators must possess the capability to use technology, select appropriate learning models, and possess sufficient knowledge of the material - collectively termed as Technological Pedagogical Content Knowledge (TPACK). Therefore, this research aimed to analyze the implementation of science learning based on the teacher's TPACK ability level. The qualitative descriptive research method was employed, involving three science teachers selected through convenience sampling and identified as Teacher A, Teacher B, and Teacher C. TPACK ability data was obtained using a TPACK measurement questionnaire developed by Shmidt et al., (2009) with a total of 54 statement items with three general dimensions. They are Technological Knowledge (TK), Pedagogical Knowledge (PK), and Content Knowledge (CK). The analysis involved observing each teacher during science lessons evaluating the alignment of planning and implementation through an observation sheet. The results of the analysis show that teachers with high TPACK abilities also have more complex science learning in terms of material, method, and technology selection. The results of this research can be used as a reference for teachers in designing and applying learning, especially in terms of integrating technology into science learning.

From theory to practice: The pragmatic value of applying systems thinking and complexity sciences in healthcare.

From theory to practice: The pragmatic value of applying systems thinking and complexity sciences in healthcare.

Applying complex adaptive systems research results to combat simulations of the generation-after-next

Combat has seen fundamental changes over the past century—with new domains of warfighting (e.g., cyber, space); the introduction of nuclear and precision weapons; ubiquitous, all source intelligence; mixes of national, coalition, and private forces operating; and numerous other examples. Over this same period, combat simulations, and the attendant training, experimentation, and analyses they support, have increased in scale, scope, and resolution. But with respect to their fundamental effectiveness, have they substantively moved beyond the foundation created by Lanchester in the early 20th century? Differential equations of mean field approximations have been complemented by discrete-event simulations at many scales; however, the underlying conceptual framework of force-on-force conflict and tightly constrained, potentially fragile, service-specific command and control remains. In this position paper, we argue that new conceptualizations, better aligned with the modern warfighting landscape, are needed across all applications of military modeling. We examine the potential role of complex adaptive systems in this endeavor.

Emergence and evolution of developmental resilience science over half a century.

This reflection on the history and future of developmental resilience science (DRS) highlights its co-emergence with developmental psychopathology (DP), as well as the roles of this journal and its founding editor, Dante Cicchetti, in the evolution of these intertwined domains of scholarship. A remarkable constellation of scholars at the University of Minnesota shaped the course of both conceptual frameworks and their dissemination. I describe fundamental assumptions common to DP and DRS frameworks that reflect their common roots and the pervasive influence of systems theory on developmental science. I describe four waves of DRS and key principles of DRS at the present time. In conclusion, I consider the possibility that a fifth wave of DRS is emerging with a focus on understanding patterns of multisystem, multilevel processes of resilience and their implications for interventions in the context of interacting, interdependent, and complex adaptive systems. I close this commentary with questions for future research and a hopeful outlook on the future of human resilience.

Simulation in New Zealand: what have you done for me lately? New Zealand Association for Simulation in Healthcare (NZASH) white paper.

Medical simulation has become an integral aspect of modern healthcare education and practice. It has evolved to become an essential aspect of teaching core concepts and skills, common and rare presentations, algorithms and protocols, communication, interpersonal and teamworking skills and testing new equipment and systems. Simulation-based learning (SBL) is useful for the novice to the senior clinician. Healthcare is a complex adaptive system built from very large numbers of mutually interacting subunits (e.g., different professions, departments, equipment). These subunits generate multiple repeated interactions that have the potential to result in rich, collective behaviour that feeds back into the organisation. There is a unique opportunity in New Zealand with the formation of Te Whatu Ora - Health New Zealand and Te Aka Whai Ora - Māori Health Authority and the reorganisation of the healthcare system. This viewpoint is a white paper for the integration of SBL into our healthcare system. We describe our concerns in the current system and list our current capabilities. The way SBL could be implemented in pre- and post-registration phases of practice are explored as well as the integration of communication and culture. Interprofessional education has been shown to improve outcomes and is best done with an interprofessional simulation curriculum. We describe ways that simulation is currently used in our system and describe other uses such as quality improvement, safety and systems engineering and integration. The aim of this viewpoint is to alert Te Whatu Ora and Te Aka Whai Ora of the existing infrastructure of the simulation community in New Zealand and encourage them to invest in its future.

How artificial intelligence cooperating with agent‐based modeling for urban studies: A systematic review

AbstractAs urbanization accelerates, cities become more complex, coming along with more complex urban issues. Agent‐based model (ABM) is a traditional method to simulate activities in a complex system, which has been widely applied in urban studies. However, due to its rigid initial settings, ABM has been criticized for its lack of intelligence, especially in dealing with modern urban issues. With the success of artificial intelligence (AI) and complexity science, it is generally agreed that ABM can be enhanced with AI agents, a promising technology that can bridge the gaps. For that, this article provides a systematic review, in which 10 subsections correspond to 10 different ways that AI can work with ABM in the methodological framework. The sections include that (1) ABM is Al; (2) ABM provides training data for Al; (3) Al provides data for ABM; (4) ABM is a submodule in the ensemble Al; (5) Al leads an optimization framework with ABM participation; (6) Al tunes ABM initialization parameters; (7) Al provides the environment for ABM; (8) Al aids in choosing the agent's attributes; (9) Al provides behaviors for agents in ABM; (10) Al helps to evaluate the performance of ABM. For each case, some typical works are examined for illustration. Finally, we discuss some of the current limitations and prospects for future development.

A complex-systems view on military decision making

ABSTRACT Military decision-making institutions are sociotechnical systems. They feature interactions among people applying technologies to enact roles within mission-oriented collectives. As sociotechnical systems, military institutions can be examined through the lens of complex adaptive systems (CAS) theory. This discussion applies the CAS perspective to reveal implications of integrating newer artificial intelligence (AI) technologies into military decision-making institutions. I begin by arguing that military adoption of AI is well-incentivised by the current defence landscape. Given these incentives, it would be useful to try to understand the likely effects of AI integration into military decision-making. Direct examinations of the new affordances and risks of new AI models is a natural mode of analysis for this. I discuss some low-hanging fruit in this tradition. However, I also maintain that such examinations can miss systemic impacts of AI reliance in decision-making workflows. By taking a complex systems view of AI integration, it is possible to glean non-intuitive insights, including, for example, that common policy concerns like preventing human deskilling or requiring algorithmic transparency may be overblown or counterproductive.

Addressing Wicked Problems (SDGs) Through Community Colleges: Leveraging Entrepreneurial Leadership for Economic Development Post-COVID

AbstractThis qualitative case study aims to explore community colleges’ role in addressing wicked problems of economic development post-COVID through entrepreneurial leadership. The key research question is, “How do entrepreneurial leaders describe the role of community colleges in addressing wicked problems of economic development post-COVID.” The study interviewed 28 entrepreneurial leaders regarding the role(s) of community colleges in addressing wicked problems of economic development. The study addresses a critical gap in the literature. Researchers have yet to explore the role of associate degree-granting institutions, namely community colleges. Notably, the over 1200 U.S. community colleges serve nearly 12 million or half of America’s students (American Association of Community Colleges, 2011). From a theoretical perspective, the study leverages complexity science, complex adaptive systems, and systemic innovation to address wicked problems of economic development. Future researchers can build on these theoretical insights for future studies across many disciplines.The results provide ten key roles community colleges can potentially take on as economic development partners, making them ideal institutions to serve as incubators of post-COVID recovery. They include revitalizing communities post-COVID, performing post-COVID business triage, modeling sustainability, creating jobs, championing entrepreneurship-led economic development, increasing tax revenue, pipelining talent, supporting talent retention, supporting main street businesses, and reducing entrepreneurial risks. Researchers recommend that policymakers and other funders allocate funding to help community colleges address wicked problems through systemic innovation labs (I-Labs). Interestingly, the roles identified appear to be moderated by proximity and trust.

Redefining leadership within the NHS’ complex adaptive system

The NHS is continuously evolving and with it, traditional notions of leadership and management must be reimagined and redefined. In order to be effective leaders, however, we must first gain a deeper understanding of the context in which we lead and recognise how to navigate the system's intricacies. This article explores the characteristics of Complex Adaptive Systems and how we can understand the patterns of these systems through our experiences leading in the NHS. It then analyses leadership approaches both past and present and considers how future leaders can be effective in tomorrow's NHS. Finally, this article identifies potential barriers and challenges that leaders must overcome as they adapt and tailor their leadership approach to meet the needs of a dynamic health service.

A realist synthesis of multicentre comparative audit implementation: exploring what works and in which healthcare contexts

BackgroundMulticentre comparative clinical audits have the potential to improve patient care, allow benchmarking and inform resource allocation. However, implementing effective and sustainable large-scale audit can be difficult within busy and...

What Complexity Science Predicts About the Potential of Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning to Improve Primary Care.

Primary care physicians are likely both excited and apprehensive at the prospects for artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML). Complexity science may provide insight into which AI/ML applications will most likely affect primary care in the future. AI/ML has successfully diagnosed some diseases from digital images, helped with administrative tasks such as writing notes in the electronic record by converting voice to text, and organized information from multiple sources within a health care system. AI/ML has less successfully recommended treatments for patients with complicated single diseases such as cancer; or improved diagnosing, patient shared decision making, and treating patients with multiple comorbidities and social determinant challenges. AI/ML has magnified disparities in health equity, and almost nothing is known of the effect of AI/ML on primary care physician-patient relationships. An intervention in Victoria, Australia showed promise where an AI/ML tool was used only as an adjunct to complex medical decision making. Putting these findings in a complex adaptive system framework, AI/ML tools will likely work when its tasks are limited in scope, have clean data that are mostly linear and deterministic, and fit well into existing workflows. AI/ML has rarely improved comprehensive care, especially in primary care settings, where data have a significant number of errors and inconsistencies. Primary care should be intimately involved in AI/ML development, and its tools carefully tested before implementation; and unlike electronic health records, not just assumed that AI/ML tools will improve primary care work life, quality, safety, and person-centered clinical decision making.

Sociocognitive and Argumentation Perspectives on Psychometric Modeling in Educational Assessment.

Rapid advances in psychology and technology open opportunities and present challenges beyond familiar forms of educational assessment and measurement. Viewing assessment through the perspectives of complex adaptive sociocognitive systems and argumentation helps us extend the concepts and methods of educational measurement to new forms of assessment, such as those involving interaction in simulation environments and automated evaluation of performances. I summarize key ideas for doing so and point to the roles of measurement models and their relation to sociocognitive systems and assessment arguments. A game-based learning assessment SimCityEDU: Pollution Challenge! is used to illustrate ideas.