Lens Of Complex Adaptive Systems Research Articles

A complex-systems view on military decision making

ABSTRACT Military decision-making institutions are sociotechnical systems. They feature interactions among people applying technologies to enact roles within mission-oriented collectives. As sociotechnical systems, military institutions can be examined through the lens of complex adaptive systems (CAS) theory. This discussion applies the CAS perspective to reveal implications of integrating newer artificial intelligence (AI) technologies into military decision-making institutions. I begin by arguing that military adoption of AI is well-incentivised by the current defence landscape. Given these incentives, it would be useful to try to understand the likely effects of AI integration into military decision-making. Direct examinations of the new affordances and risks of new AI models is a natural mode of analysis for this. I discuss some low-hanging fruit in this tradition. However, I also maintain that such examinations can miss systemic impacts of AI reliance in decision-making workflows. By taking a complex systems view of AI integration, it is possible to glean non-intuitive insights, including, for example, that common policy concerns like preventing human deskilling or requiring algorithmic transparency may be overblown or counterproductive.

Financial Engineering in Complex Dynamic Systems

This paper explores the dynamic nature of financial markets through the lens of complex adaptive systems (CAS) theory, aiming to provide a comprehensive understanding of how financial markets deviate from the Efficient Market Hypothesis in extreme events such as bubbles and crashes. Traditional economic models often struggle to capture the intricate dynamics of 'self-organizing' financial markets, particularly the interaction between supply and demand in the face of evolving risks. CAS theory offers a promising framework for modeling asset prices, emphasizing the interconnectedness and adaptability of various agents within the system. The literature review highlights the significance of CAS theory in understanding the collective adaptation that emerges from interactions among heterogeneous agents. Notably, researchers such as Holland (1995) and Axelrod (1997) have demonstrated how simple agent-level rules can lead to sophisticated, self-organizing behaviors at the system level, resulting in more efficient outcomes. This paper also discusses the pivotal role of financial engineering in enhancing the adaptive capacity of socioeconomic systems under extreme stress. In an increasingly unpredictable world characterized by natural disasters, economic crises, and other unforeseen events, risk management serves as a vital mechanism for volatility mitigation and financial protection. By spreading risk collectively through hedging strategies, financial engineering not only provides portfolio security but also contributes to the resilience of financial and economic systems. By merging insights from CAS theory and the role of financial engineering in increasing adaptive capacity, this paper contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of the risk dynamics in financial markets impacting economic activities. Financial engineering tools mitigate negative shocks and reduce the severity of recessionary cycles. An attempt is made to explain how collective adaptation can lead to more efficient risk management and pricing, ultimately helping policymakers, fund managers, and researchers navigate the complexities of modern financial markets and fortify socioeconomic systems against extreme stressors.

A time with e-Natureza (e-Nature): a model of nature-based health interventions as a complex adaptive system.

Discussions surrounding the positive impacts of nature on human health and strategies to enhance our connection with the natural world have been ongoing. However, a limited number of theoretical models are available to guide research and practice in this area. Therefore, there is a pressing need for a systematic framework that outlines clear steps for conducting research implementing nature-based interventions. In this study, we investigate the relationship between health and nature through the lens of Complex Adaptive Systems. This approach involves examining the dynamic interactions between multiple interconnected elements to understand the complex emergent behaviors that arise from such relationships. Our model is designed to support nature-based interventions, considering the essential interdependence between humans and nature. This perspective aims to improve both human health and biodiversity conservation in a mutually beneficial manner. The underlying interactions that drive nature-based health interventions are thoroughly explored, leading us to propose a novel intervention model named "A time with e-Natureza" (e-Nature). This model encompasses four types of experiences, drawing from scientific literature and insights from authors engaged in an interdisciplinary research group: (1) Aesthetic and emotional experience; (2) Multisensory integration experience; (3) Knowledge experience; and (4) Engagement experience. Each experience within the model targets affective, cognitive, and behavioral aspects, with a specific focus on fostering a deeper connection with nature. Distinct activities are incorporated within each experience to promote successful outcomes. The model is grounded in existing theories that address the human-nature relationship and is informed by Nursing theories that support health promotion interventions. By presenting this new model, our aim is to contribute to the effective implementation of nature-based interventions that not only enhance human well-being but also support the conservation of nature. This integrated approach recognizes the mutual benefits of human-nature interaction and offers valuable insights for future research and practical applications in the fields of nature and health.

Revisiting Biodiversity and Ecosystem Functioning through the Lens of Complex Adaptive Systems

Understanding the relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning (BEF) is essential to comprehend the impacts of biodiversity changes on ecosystem functioning. This knowledge helps to detect and anticipate significant trends in global biodiversity loss and the homogenization of biota worldwide to prevent them. Species act together with climate, resource availability, and disturbance regimes to modulate ecological processes defining ecosystems’ complexity and their dynamic adaptation to variability. In this article, we revisit the BEF paradigm by addressing current knowledge of how biodiversity connects to ecosystem functioning across scales in the context of complex adaptive systems (CAS). We focus on ecosystem processes that lead to the emergence of the BEF relationship, considering ecosystem functioning as a macroscopic emergent property. Specifically, this work integrates the knowledge of the processes that connect biodiversity to ecosystem functioning. It addresses how biodiversity supports ecosystem multifunctionality across scales, resulting in the persistence of CAS in a rapidly changing world. We present a framework for ecological management considering the BEF relationship within the scope of CAS. The CAS standpoint brings new insights into the BEF field and its relevance for future ecological conservation of the Earth’s life support.

The Impact of Periodic Formative Assessments on Learning Through the Lens of the Complex Adaptive System and Social Sustainability Principles.

Medical institutions in India have employed different periodic formative assessment (FA) methods with variable impact. The formative evaluation must incorporate feedback to improve learning. Formative assessment has helped inexperienced students apprehend their weaknesses, make choices, prepare for summative exams, and allow teachers to identify regions wherein students may also need aid. This study attempts to quantify the impact of the weekly, monthly, and semesterformative assessments and view it retrospectively through the lens of complex adaptive systems and social sustainability principles. We used a post-exam survey and statistical analysis to compare the students' performance between the timely periodic formative assessments in a competency-based curriculum. The cohort consisted of 2018 (semester), 2019 (weekly), and 2020 (monthly) first-year medical students. Cronbach alpha, spearman's correlation coefficient, descriptive statistics, and repeated measure analysis of variance were used to explore the reliability and relationship between formative assessment and summative scores of each cohort and find any significant difference. The authors also analyzed the accordance between the FA exam performance and students' perceptions, deduced broad themes, and discussed the appropriateness and feasibility of students' suggestions for changes. A significant correlation was found only between the weekly formative assessment and summative scores (r=0.74, p=0.01). Theanalysis of variance established significant differences betweenall summative scores of respective periodic formative assessments. The weekly formative assessment showed the highest mean summative examination scores. This study helped comprehend preclinical students' apprehension after the intervention of periodic formative assessments. The students found this intervention helpful in driving and detecting gaps in learning but preferred focused feedback, clinically oriented practices, and countered mental health issues. The continuous periodic formative assessment model had a valid educational impact but was not sustainable according to social sustainability principles. A complex adaptive framework can be utilized to make it sustainable.

Heat-as-a-Service (HaaS): a Complex Adaptive Systems perspective on servitization

Servitization increases uncertainty and complexity in manufacturing firms by introducing dynamic interdependencies within and between organisations. This study proposes the conceptual lens of Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) to frame manufacturers’ service delivery systems and a hybrid simulation approach to explore the dynamic interdependencies of their servitization journeys. The case of a boiler manufacturer transforming to a provider of Heat-as-a-Service (HaaS) is used to examine the dynamic interdependencies between the growth of a service business, digitalisation efforts and operational efficiency as well as the interaction between the emerging service- and existing product business. The findings indicate that the manufacturer will experience an initial ‘cost-shock’ which will significantly decline as service delivery optimises and diagnostic accuracy improves. The study contributes to the servitization literature by introducing CAS as a theoretical perspective and hybrid modelling as a practical approach to explore and reconcile the strategic and operational dimensions of servitization.

Pathways and approaches for scaling-up of community-based management of acute malnutrition programs through the lens of complex adaptive systems in South Sudan

BackgroundFunds for community-based management of acute malnutrition (CMAM) programs are short-term in nature. CMAM programs are implemented in countries with weak policies and health systems and are primarily funded by donors. Beyond operational expansion, their institutionalisation and alignment with governments’ priorities are poorly documented. The study aimed to identify pathway opportunities and approaches for horizontal and vertical scaling up of CMAM programs in South Sudan.MethodsThe study was conducted in South Sudan between August and September 2021 using an online qualitative survey with 31 respondents from policy and implementing organisations. The Reach, Effectiveness, Adoption, Implementation, and Maintenance (RE-AIM) framework guided the study’s design. It was self-administered through the Qualtrics platform. We used Qualitative Content Analysis supported by the Nvivo coding process. A deductive a priori template of codes approach was complemented by a data-driven inductive approach to develop the second level of interpretive understanding.ResultsFindings from the study demonstrate that the emphasis of CMAM programs was horizontal scaling up, characterised by geographic distribution and coverage as well as operational expansion. Main challenges have included unsustainable funding models, the inadequacy of existing infrastructure, high operational costs, cultural beliefs, and access-related barriers. Factor impacting access to CMAM programs have been geographical terrains, safety, and security concerns. Vertical scaling up, which emphasises institutional and ownership strengthening through a sound policy, regulatory, and fiscal environment, received relatively little attention. Nutrition supplies are not part of the government’s essential drug list and there is limited or no budgetary allocation for nutrition programs by the government in national budgets and fiscal strategies. Factors constraining vertical scalability have included weak government systems and capacity, a lack of advocacy and lobbying opportunities, and an apparent lack of exits strategies.ConclusionAddressing the scalability problems of CMAM programs in South Sudan demands a delicate balancing act that prioritises both horizontal and vertical scalability. Government and political leadership that harness multidisciplinary and multi-sectoral coordination are required. There is a need to increase policy commitment to malnutrition and associated budgetary allocation, emphasise local resource mobilisation, and ensure financial sustainability of integrating CMAM programs into the existing health and welfare system.

Achieving organizational resilience through complex adaptive systems approach: a conceptual framework

ObjetivoO ambiente de negócios global gera diferentes problemas que ameaçam a sobrevivência da organização. Como solução relevante, surge o conceito de resiliência organizacional que oferece uma filosofia holística. O conceito de resiliência oferece uma literatura multidisciplinar eclética e é valioso para estudos organizacionais que ajudam a produzir uma grande variedade de soluções, mas há falta de consenso para medir e aplicar resiliência a nível organizacional. Para colmatar esta lacuna, este trabalho oferece a Abordagem Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) como uma lente para organizações. O objetivo deste estudo é demonstrar que os Sistemas Adaptativos Complexos (CAS) fornecem um conjunto adequado de ferramentas para abordar o conceito de resiliência organizacional, uma vez que tem o potencial de oferecer orientações mais generalizadas.Design/metodologia/abordagemPara atingir este objetivo, esta investigação segue duas fases de revisão sistemática da literatura. Na primeira fase, o objetivo foi procurar em cinco anos (2015–2020) investigar as tendências atuais nos conceitos de resiliência organizacional. Na segunda fase, verifica-se estudos de resiliência organizacional que incluem a abordagem CAS para analisar os procedimentos de alinhamento de dois conceitos.ConclusõesA literatura mostra que o conceito de resiliência organizacional não está ligado a Sistemas Adaptativos Complexos (CAS). Os sistemas adaptativos complexos são mais resistentes através da adaptação e da aprendizagem, pois dependem de interações locais que moldam e co-evoluem juntamente com o seu ambiente dinâmico que ajuda a emergir como auto-organização num futuro imprevisível. Para alcançar a resiliência organizacional, a lente CAS propõe um quadro generalizável aplicável aos estudos organizacionais.OriginalidadeA originalidade do estudo consiste em propor a obtenção de resiliência organizacional através de Sistemas Adaptativos Complexos (CAS) e oferece um quadro conceptual para alcançar a resiliência organizacional.Palavras-chaveResiliência organizacional, Abordagem de sistemas adaptativos complexos (CAS), Revisão sistemática de literatura, Modelo conceptualTipo de manuscritoPapel conceitual

Contextual factors influencing complex intervention research processes in care homes: a systematic review and framework synthesis.

BackgroundCare homes are complex settings to undertake intervention research. Barriers to research implementation processes can threaten studies’ validity, reducing the value to residents, staff, researchers and funders. We aimed to (i) identify and categorise contextual factors that may mediate outcomes of complex intervention studies in care homes and (ii) provide recommendations to minimise the risk of expensive research implementation failures.MethodsWe conducted a systematic review using a framework synthesis approach viewed through a complex adaptive systems lens. We searched: MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, ASSIA databases and grey literature. We sought process evaluations of care home complex interventions published in English. Narrative data were indexed under 28 context domains. We performed an inductive thematic analysis across the context domains.ResultsWe included 33 process evaluations conducted in high-income countries, published between 2005 and 2019. Framework synthesis identified barriers to implementation that were more common at the task and organisational level. Inductive thematic analysis identified (i) avoiding procedural drift and (ii) participatory action and learning as key priorities for research teams. Research team recommendations include advice for protocol design and care home engagement. Care home team recommendations focus on internal resources and team dynamics. Collaborative recommendations apply to care homes’ individual context and the importance of maintaining positive working relationships.DiscussionResearchers planning and undertaking research with care homes need a sensitive appreciation of the complex care home context. Study implementation is most effective where an intervention is co-produced, with agreed purpose and adequate resources to incorporate within existing routines and care practices.

Organizing Theories for Disasters into a Complex Adaptive System Framework

Increasingly urbanized populations and climate change have shifted the focus of decision makers from economic growth to the sustainability and resilience of urban infrastructure and communities, especially when communities face multiple hazards and need to recover from recurring disasters. Understanding human behavior and its interactions with built environments in disasters requires disciplinary crossover to explain its complexity, therefore we apply the lens of complex adaptive systems (CAS) to review disaster studies across disciplines. Disasters can be understood to consist of three interacting systems: (1) the physical system, consisting of geological, ecological, and human-built systems; (2) the social system, consisting of informal and formal human collective behavior; and (3) the individual actor system. Exploration of human behavior in these systems shows that CAS properties of heterogeneity, interacting subsystems, emergence, adaptation, and learning are integral, not just to cities, but to disaster studies and connecting them in the CAS framework provides us with a new lens to study disasters across disciplines. This paper explores the theories and models used in disaster studies, provides a framework to study and explain disasters, and discusses how complex adaptive systems can support theory building in disaster science for promoting more sustainable and resilient cities.

Social movements as complex adaptive systems: The antecedents and consequences of movement participation in the age of social media

ABSTRACT In this study, we focus on social movements as complex adaptive systems where citizens act as autonomous agents engaging in collective sensemaking of information gleaned via social media to generate emergent patterns of self-organization. Based on a systematic literature review, we propose a theoretical framework focusing on the antecedents and consequences of social movement participation as complex adaptive systems. We identified three major antecedents of social movement activity – social identity, political efficacy, and structural embeddedness – that are moderated by social media use and lead to movement participation. The consequences of social movement participation yield enduring effects on participating individuals through effects on their social identity, political efficacy, and structural embeddedness. This paper contributes to the existing literature by analyzing social movement activity through the lens of complex adaptive systems and proposing a new framework explaining the process of citizen self-organization in social movements. Social media use enables movement activity and is positioned as a key moderating factor in our framework.

New perspectives on supply chain resilience

New perspectives on supply chain resilience

Absorptive capacity and disaster immunity: the mediating role of information quality and change management capability

PurposeService organization supply chains provide a context that amplifies the complexity of interorganizational interdependencies and the need to build unique capabilities and innovative solutions, especially when confronted with man-made or natural disasters. Using the lens of complex adaptive systems (CAS), this study aims to investigate the role of absorptive capacity (AC), change management capability and information quality in improving a firm’s ability to cope with disasters – disaster immunity (DI). The study uniquely parses absorptive capacity into a three-variable, second-order construct (absorptive human resource management, absorptive complementary knowledge and absorptive infrastructure).Design/methodology/approachUsing data collected from 264 US service firms in a supply chain context, this paper evaluates the research model using the structural equation modeling approach.FindingsThe second-order, three-dimensional framework for AC has far superior psychometric properties as compared to the previous unidimensional conceptualizations. Results show that AC influences a firm’s DI through change management capability and information quality – two DI enhancing resources.Originality/valueThe paper builds on previous conceptual discussions of absorptive capacity as a multidimensional construct by operationalizing AC as a latent variable with three dimensions (above). Moreover, this paper shows that AC, change management capability, information quality and DI are interrelated parts of a CAS.

Understanding the concept of ‘demand’ in policing: a scoping review and resulting implications for demand management

ABSTRACT As literature around policing and society grows, there is increased use of, and focus upon the concept of police ‘demand’. The concept itself, however, is ill-defined and no consensus exists about how it should be measured. This paper addresses these issues by undertaking a scoping review of literature on the topic, and by exploring how demand has been conceptualised in both academic and practitioner communities. The review reveals that while key interdependencies between police demand and supply are widely discussed, they are often analysed in isolation. To add to the academic discussion of police demand, the paper introduces a comprehensive conceptualisation including the various forms police demand can take and the different manifestations of drivers for police demand. Subsequently, it outlines several approaches that might be levied to increase the effectiveness and efficiency of demand management approaches. These include the consideration of trade-offs that need to be considered. For example, there is a need to balance any resources allocated to deal with proactive demand reduction and that necessary for (reactive) response. Considering the dynamics of police demand and – by necessity – supply through the lens of complex adaptive systems we propose potential ways forward that capitalise on this framing.

The Complex Dynamic of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Spread

This study used the Complex Adaptive System approach to illustrate the global HIV/AIDS epidemic. Complex Adaptive System approach derived feature similarity that represented the heterogeneity of the HIV phenomenon. Rather than seeing HIV infection as a linear cause and effect model, it was understood through the lens of complex adaptive systems by recognizing the intricate interactions and relationships of different agent and components that shaped this phenomenon. Results show that HIV per capita is well controlled by the health care service in all countries except for countries with disproportionate responses of HIV/capital incidences. These countries with disproportionate responses have modifiable and non-modifiable factors that contributed to the complex dynamic of HIV spread. The migratory pattern of these countries is also a contributory factor to the spread of HIV. The rise and spread of HIV are therefore, multi-dimensional and not just a health care issue. Focusing on behavior change or therapy alone may not combat this epidemic. The approach needs to be multifaceted and interdisciplinary taking into consideration the context and the economic and social realities at multiple scales which may include: socio-economic, political, cultural, gender equality, migration or mobility patterns, spirituality, and environment, among others. To eradicate or minimize the spread of HIV, there should be a holistic approach to attacking this epidemic. Keywords : Complex Adaptive System, HIV/AIDS, socio-economic, political, cultural, gender equality

A more dynamic understanding of human behaviour for the Anthropocene

Human behaviour is of profound significance in shaping pathways towards sustainability. Yet, the approach to understanding human behaviour in many fields remains reliant on overly simplistic models. For a better understanding of the interface between human behaviour and sustainability, we take work in behavioural economics and cognitive psychology as a starting point, but argue for an expansion of this work by adopting a more dynamic and systemic understanding of human behaviour, that is, as part of complex adaptive systems. A complex adaptive systems approach allows us to capture behaviour as ‘enculturated’ and ‘enearthed’, co-evolving with socio–cultural and biophysical contexts. Connecting human behaviour and context through a complex adaptive systems lens is critical to inform environmental governance and management for sustainability, and ultimately to better understand the dynamics of the Anthropocene itself. To understand and address sustainability problems, a complex model of human behaviour is proposed, one that co-evolves with their context, as opposed to simpler models.

A complex adaptive systems agenda for ecosystem research methodology

Ecosystems have recently emerged as a visible stream in organization and management research. The ecosystem concept promises a broader, systems view of organizational and technological phenomena beyond traditional firm, value chain or network boundaries. However, adopting an ecosystem approach presents a range of methodological challenges for researchers, including how to set boundaries for the ecosystems, as well as how to examine their structure and relationships, as well as to explain the inherent dynamics and co-evolution. Based upon on a complex adaptive systems lens, this study proposes a theoretically grounded but pragmatic approach to address these challenges. The proposed methodological framework facilitates exploration of the conceptual, structural and temporal dimensions of ecosystem research design. An illustrative example is also included to showcase the framework's applicability.

Taking a systems approach to explore the impacts and outcomes of a research and evaluation capacity building partnership: a protocol

IntroductionPartnership models that bring researchers, policymakers and service providers closer together are gaining traction as a strategy to improve public health practice. Yet, there is little evidence of how these...

Next Generation Data Infrastructures: Towards an Extendable Model of the Asset Management Data Infrastructure as Complex Adaptive System

Organizations are increasingly looking to adopt the Internet of Things (IoT) to collect the data required for data-driven decision-making. IoT might yield many benefits for asset management organizations engaged in infrastructure asset management, yet not all organizations are equipped to handle this data. IoT data is collected, stored, and analyzed within data infrastructures and there are many changes over time, resulting in the evolution of the data infrastructure and the need to view data infrastructures as complex adaptive systems (CAS). Such data infrastructures represent information about physical reality, in this case about the underlying physical infrastructure. Physical infrastructures are often described and analyzed in literature as CASs, but their underlying data infrastructures are not yet systematically analyzed, whereas they can also be viewed as CAS. Current asset management data models tend to view the system from a static perspective, posing constraints on the extensibility of the system, and making it difficult to adopt new data sources such as IoT. The objective of the research is therefore to develop an extensible model of asset management data infrastructures which helps organizations implement data infrastructures which are capable of evolution and aids the successful adoption of IoT. Systematic literature review and an IoT case study in the infrastructure management domain are used as research methods. By adopting a CAS lens in the design, the resulting data infrastructure is extendable to deal with evolution of asset management data infrastructures in the face of new technologies and new requirements and to steadily exhibit new forms of emergent behavior. This paper concludes that asset management data infrastructures are inherently multilevel, consisting of subsystems, links, and nodes, all of which are interdependent in several ways.

Interventions to reduce readmissions: can complex adaptive system theory explain the heterogeneity in effectiveness? A systematic review

BackgroundSuccessfully transitioning patients from hospital to home is a complex, often uncertain task. Despite significant efforts to improve the effectiveness of care transitions, they remain a challenge across health care systems. The lens of complex adaptive systems (CAS) provides a theoretical approach for studying care transition interventions, with potential implications for intervention effectiveness. The aim of this study is to examine whether care transition interventions that are congruent with the complexity of the processes and conditions they are trying to improve will have better outcomes.MethodsWe identified a convenience sample of high-quality care transition intervention studies included in a care transition synthesis report by Kansagara and colleagues. After excluding studies that did not meet our criteria, we scored each study based on (1) the presence or absence of 5 CAS characteristics (learning, interconnections, self-organization, co-evolution, and emergence), as well as system-level interdependencies (resources and processes) in the intervention design, and (2) scored study readmission-related outcomes for effectiveness.ResultsForty-four of the 154 reviewed articles met our inclusion criteria; these studies reported on 46 interventions. Nearly all the interventions involved a change in interconnections between people compared with care as usual (96% of interventions), and added resources (98%) and processes (98%). Most contained elements impacting learning (67%) and self-organization (69%). No intervention reflected either co-evolution or emergence. Almost 40% of interventions were rated as effective in terms of impact on hospital readmissions. Chi square testing for an association between outcomes and CAS characteristics was not significant for learning or self-organization, however interventions rated as effective were significantly more likely to have both of these characteristics (78%) than interventions rated as having no effect (32%, p = 0.005).ConclusionsInterventions with components that influenced learning and self-organization were associated with a significant improvement in hospital readmissions-related outcomes. Learning alone might be necessary but not be sufficient for improving transitions. However, building self-organization into the intervention might help people effectively respond to problems and adapt in uncertain situations to reduce the likelihood of readmission.