Completed Fertility Research Articles

Racing Against the Biological Clock? Childbearing and Sterility Among Men and Women in Second Unions in France

In developed countries, rising rates of union disruption have induced an increase in the share of people experiencing several fertile partnerships during their fertile life-span. However, from the large-scale 1999 French Family Survey, in the 1939–1954 birth cohorts it appears that completed fertility of repartnered men is slightly higher than that of never-separated men while repartnered women have fertility levels similar to those who remain in a first intact partnership. Following this observation, this article aims to study whether people, and especially women, have enough time to have children in the context of second union before they become limited by the “biological clock”. Using a cure model, we find that once age-related sterility is controlled for, the decrease in risk of having children with age is not visible anymore up to age 40. This offers some evidence that people in their second partnership, especially women, are constrained in their childbearing by the decline in fecundity with age. Additionally, childless women seem to respond proactively to the decline in fecundity with age by accelerating childbearing.

Postponement and Recuperation in Cohort Fertility:<br>Austria, Germany and Switzerland in a European Context<br>

Across developed countries, cohorts of women born after World War II have seen a shift of childbearing towards later ages and a concomitant decline in fertility level. We study this shift using the notions of fertility postponement (fertility decline at younger ages) and subsequent recuperation (a compensatory fertility increase at higher reproductive ages). We apply order-specific data and extend and elaborate on two broad approaches to this process: 1) a basic benchmark model extensively used by Tomas Frejka and his colleagues and 2) a relational model proposed by Ron Lesthaeghe (2001). Our work focuses especially on three predominantly German-speaking countries, Austria, Germany and Switzerland, and compares them with selected European countries and the United States. We illustrate the usefulness of these two approaches for constructing projection scenarios of completed cohort fertility among women of reproductive age. Using three key indicators of the postponement transition – initial fertility level, absolute fertility decline at younger ages, and the relative degree of fertility “recuperation” at older ages – we demonstrate that each of these components is salient for explaining contemporary cross-country differences in cohort fertility. Recuperation is especially important, but is also clearly patterned by birth order: whereas all the countries analysed have experienced a vigorous recovery of delayed first births, pronounced differentials are observed with regard to the recuperation of second and particularly of third and later births. In line with the differentials observed, projected values of completed fertility in five European countries vary widely for the cohorts born in the early 1980s, ranging from 1.3 in the lowest scenario for Spain to over 1.8 in the highest scenario for the Czech Republic.

Conditional Grandmother Effects on Age at Marriage, Age at First Birth, and Completed Fertility of Daughters and Daughters-in-law in Historical Krummhörn

Based on historical data pertaining to the Krummhörn population (eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, Germany), we compared reproductive histories of mothers according to whether the maternal grandmother (MGM) or the paternal grandmother (PGM) or neither of them was resident in the parents' parish at the time of the mother's first birth. In contrast to effects of PGMs, we discovered conditional differences in the MGM's effects between landless people and wealthier, commercial farmers. Our data indicate that the presence of the MGM only lowers the woman's age at marriage (AAM) and her age at the birth of her first child (AFB) in the case of landless families. However, among commercial farmers, who can generally be characterized by a lower AAM and AFB, we found opposite tendencies for the MGM's effect leading to a relatively small delay in AAM and AFB. Moreover, we also analyzed differences in the completed fertility (i.e., children ever born: CEB). Results indicate that landless families in general do have fewer CEB compared with commercial farmers except for those families in which the MGM has been present. Emphasizing that the adaptiveness of investment decisions should depend on the interaction of genetic, lineage-specific (intrinsic) and ecologically imposed (extrinsic) constraints, we conclude that kin strategies consequently address different fitness components under different conditions.

Intergenerational fertility correlations in contemporary developing counties

To estimate the magnitude of intergenerational continuities in total and effective fertility among women in a group of 46 contemporary developing countries. Information collected from 93,000 women aged 45-49 for estimation of maternal mortality in the demographic and health surveys (DHS) program is analyzed using Pearson product moment intergenerational fertility correlations. A positive but usually small intergenerational correlation is found for both completed fertility (CFS, total number of children born) and effective fertility (EFS, number of children surviving to age of reproduction). Although the developing countries are mainly located in sub-Saharan Africa, a similar pattern appears to hold for the Asian and Latin American countries included. Women in the second generation with no education have a stronger relationship with their parents' fertility than women with some education. The relationship is also stronger in rural than in urban areas and in countries with lower levels of development. Intergenerational correlations of completed fertility in both generations are marginally stronger than for effective fertility largely because the number of a woman's total sibs is more strongly related to her subsequent childbearing than her number of adult sibs. Values of intergenerational correlations for these countries are similar to published values for a number of Western pretransitional populations, but well below values in contemporary developed societies.

The motherhood wage gap in the UK over the life cycle

This paper examines the impact of children on female wages in the UK using the National Child Development Study. The use of a longitudinal cohort study enables to estimate of the effect of children on wages for the same sample of women throughout their life-cycle until completed fertility. This study confirms some of the negative effects of motherhood on wages as found in the previous literature. The effect of a first child is on average 8.1 % at age 23, 22 % at age 33, 4.8 % at age 42 and 0 % at age 51. The effect of a second child is 16 % on average at age 33 only. Longitudinal nature of the data also allows the estimation of long run effects and the results indicate that the negative wage gap of motherhood persists even 30 years after first entering motherhood.

A Demographic Explanation for the Recent Rise in European Fertility

Between 1998 and 2008 European countries experienced the first continent-wide increase in the period total fertility rate (TFR) since the 1960s. After discussing period and cohort influences on fertility trends, we examine the role of tempo distortions of period fertility and different methods for removing them. We highlight the usefulness of a new indicator: the tempo- and parity-adjusted total fertility rate (TFRp*). This variant of the adjusted total fertility rate proposed by Bongaarts and Feeney also controls for the parity composition of the female population and provides more stable values than the indicators proposed in the past. Finally, we estimate levels and trends in tempo and parity distribution distortions in selected countries in Europe. Our analysis of period and cohort fertility indicators in the Czech Republic, Netherlands, Spain, and Sweden shows that the new adjusted measure gives a remarkable fit with the completed fertility of women in prime childbearing years in a given period, which suggests that it provides an accurate adjustment for tempo and parity composition distortions. Using an expanded dataset for ten countries, we demonstrate that adjusted fertility as measured by TFRp* remained nearly stable since the late 1990s. This finding implies that the recent upturns in the period TFR in Europe are largely explained by a decline in the pace of fertility postponement. Other tempo-adjusted fertility indicators have not indicated such a large role for the diminishing tempo effect in these TFR upturns. As countries proceed through their postponement transitions, tempo effects will decline further and eventually disappear, thus putting continued upward pressure on period fertility. However, such an upward trend may be obscured for a few years by the effects of economic recession.

The influence of employment uncertainty on childbearing in France: A tempo or quantum effect?

This paper investigates whether unemployment and insecure employment periods merely delay fertility or also impact on completed fertility in France. It analyses both the timing of first childbearing and the fertility reached at age 40. Different indica

Fertility Transition through Four Generations and Determinants of Third Birth in Manipur

A cross sectional as well as community based study was conducted taking 1296 currently married women through cluster sampling scheme in the rural areas of four valley districts of Manipur. The fertility of generation-4 that is 3.59 is transited from the generation-1 (4.78), generation-2 (4.83), and generation-3 (5.69). Utilizing multiple and logistic regression models, the determinants of completed fertility of the last generation-4 are detected to be age at marriage (P<0.01), son preference (P<0.05), contraceptives uses (P<0.05), Islam religion (P<0.01), educational level (P<0.01). The findings may be a baseline information in community fertility indices.

Do More-Schooled Women Have Fewer Children and Delay Childbearing? Evidence from a Sample of U.S. Twins

Using data on MZ (monozygotic, identical) female twins from the Minnesota Twin Registry, we estimate the causal effect of schooling on completed fertility, probability of being childless and age at first birth, using the within MZ twins methodology. We find strong cross-sectional associations between schooling and the fertility outcomes and some evidence that more schooling causes women to have fewer children and delay childbearing, though not to the extent that interpreting cross-sectional associations as causal would imply. Our conclusions are robust when taking account of (1) endogenous within-twin pair schooling differences due to reverse causality and (2) measurement error in schooling. We also investigate possible mechanisms and find that the effect of women’s schooling on completed fertility is not mediated through husband’s schooling but rather through age at first marriage.

Trading Off or Having it All? Completed Fertility and Mid-Career Earnings of Swedish Men and Women

Earnings in mid-career and children are two fundamental outcomes of the life-choices of men and women. Both require time and other resources and reflect the accumulated priorities of individuals and couples. We explore how these outcomes have changed for Swedish men and women born 1945-1962 by documenting changes in education, assortative mating patterns, completed fertility and mid-career earnings. We find an overall increasing inequality in career and family outcomes of men, reflecting a rise in the family-career complementarity. For women, the family-career trade-off has eased for non-professionals, and there appears to be a convergence in the life-choices of women across education groups. Despite these different developments for men and women, we find that within-family specialization, measured by the average spousal earnings contribution, is remarkably stable through the period.

Has East Germany Overtaken West Germany? Recent Trends in Order‐Specific Fertility

Some 20 years after reunification, the contrast between East and West Germany offers a natural experiment for studying the degree of persistence of Communist-era family patterns, the effects of economic change, and fertility postponement. After reunification, period fertility rates plummeted in the former East Germany to record low levels. Since the mid-1990s, however, period fertility rates have been rising in East Germany, in contrast to the nearly constant rates seen in the West. By 2008, the TFR of East Germany had overtaken that of the West. We explore why fertility in East Germany is higher than in West Germany, despite unfavorable economic circumstances in the East. We address this and related questions by (a) presenting an account of the persisting East/West differences in attitudes toward and constraints on childbearing, (b) conducting an order-specific fertility analysis of recent fertility trends, and (c) projecting completed fertility for the recent East and west German cohorts. In addition to using the Human Fertility Database, perinatal statistics allow us to calculate a tempo-corrected TFR for East and West Germany.

Childbearing impeded education more than education impeded childbearing among Norwegian women

In most societies, women at age 39 with higher levels of education have fewer children. To understand this association, we investigated the effects of childbearing on educational attainment and the effects of education on fertility in the 1964 birth cohort of Norwegian women. Using detailed annual data from ages 17 to 39, we estimated the probabilities of an additional birth, a change in educational level, and enrollment in the coming year, conditional on fertility history, educational level, and enrollment history at the beginning of each year. A simple model reproduced a declining gradient of children ever born with increasing educational level at age 39. When a counterfactual simulation assumed no effects of childbearing on educational progression or enrollment (without changing the estimated effects of education on childbearing), the simulated number of children ever born decreased very little with increasing completed educational level, contrary to data. However, when another counterfactual simulation assumed no effects of current educational level and enrollment on childbearing (without changing the estimated effects of childbearing on education), the simulated number of children ever born decreased with increasing completed educational level nearly as much as the decrease in the data. In summary, in these Norwegian data, childbearing impeded education much more than education impeded childbearing. These results suggest that women with advanced degrees have lower completed fertility on the average principally because women who have one or more children early are more likely to leave or not enter long educational tracks and never attain a high educational level.

How High is Hispanic/Mexican Fertility in the United States? Immigration and Tempo Considerations

In this article, I demonstrate that the apparently much higher fertility of Hispanic/Mexican women in the United States is almost exclusively the product of period estimates obtained for immigrant women and that period measures of immigrant fertility suffer from three serious sources of bias that together significantly overstate fertility levels: difficulties in estimating the size of immigrant groups; the tendency for migration to occur at a particular stage in life; and, most importantly, the tendency for women to have a birth soon after migration. When these sources of bias are taken into consideration, the fertility of native Hispanic/Mexican women is very close to replacement level. In addition, the completed fertility of immigrant women in the United States is dramatically lower than the level obtained from period calculations. Findings are consistent with classical theories of immigrant assimilation but are a striking departure from the patterns found in previous studies and published statistics. The main implication is that without a significant change in immigration levels, current projections based on the premise of high Hispanic fertility are likely to considerably exaggerate Hispanic population growth, its impact on the ethno-racial profile of the country, and its potential to counteract population aging.

Father death and adult success among the Tsimane: implications for marriage and divorce

Human fathers are heavily involved in the rearing of children around the world. Early evolutionary explanations focused on the greater need of human children and mothers compared to other species and the consequent increased benefits available to investing fathers and pair-bonded husbands. Contrary to this hypothesis, research suggests that the impact of men's care on the survivorship and physical well-being of juvenile offspring is cross-culturally variable and often unsubstantial. Proper testing of the hypothesis, however, also requires exploring how well children raised with paternal investment fare as adults, compared to those raised in the absence of fathers. We explore this issue among the Tsimane, who exhibit high levels of paternal provisioning and very low divorce rates, by testing the impact of early father death on five measures of adult success: completed height, body mass index (BMI), age of first reproduction, completed fertility for age and number of surviving offspring for age. Of these five tests, a significant effect in the predicted direction was found only for body mass index of adult daughters. Therefore, there is no substantial evidence that Tsimane fathers have a large impact on the success of adult children. We explore alternative explanations for the high levels of paternal involvement and low divorce rates observed among the Tsimane, including the positive effects of men's investments on couple fertility and the constraints imposed by female preferences and the availability of alternative partners.

Child‐Care Availability and Fertility in Norway

The child-care and fertility hypothesis has been in the literature for a long time and is straightforward: As child care becomes more available, affordable, and acceptable, the antinatalist effects of increased female educational attainment and work opportunities decrease. As an increasing number of countries express concern about low fertility, the child-care and fertility hypothesis takes on increased importance. Yet data and statistical limitations have heretofore limited empirical tests of the hypothesis. Using rich longitudinal data and appropriate statistical methodology, We show that increased availability of child care increases completed fertility. Moreover, this positive effect of child-care availability is found at every parity transition. We discuss the generalizability of these results to other settings and their broader importance for understanding variation and trends in low fertility.

The Correspondence Between Fertility Intentions and Behavior in the United States

Using data from the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, we describe the correspondence between intended family size and observed fertility for US men and women in the 1957–64 birth cohorts. Mean fertility intentions calculated from reports given in the mid‐20s modestly overstate completed fertility. But discrepancies between stated intent and actual fertility are common—the stated intent at age 24 (for both women and men) is more likely to miss than to match completed fertility. We focus on factors that predict which women and men will have fewer or more children than intended. Consistent with life‐course arguments, those unmarried, childless, or (for women) still in school at approximately age 24 were most likely to underachieve their intended parity (i.e., had fewer children than intended at age 24). We discuss how such discrepancies between intentions and behavior may cumulate to produce sizable cross‐group fertility differences.

Postponement and recuperation of Belgian fertility: how are they related to rising female educational attainment?

Fertility trends in Europe after 1970 are routinely referred to in terms of the postponement of fertility. The shortening of the effective reproductive lifespan and its association with post-materialist values have raised questions as to whether fertility can or will be recuperated. Decomposition of cohort fertility in Belgium by level of education shows that the postponement of fertility after 1970 is closely related to the expansion of education: compared with cohorts born in 1946-1950, 40 to 50 per cent of the difference in cumulated fertility at age 25 in the 1951-1975 birth cohorts is attributable to rising educational levels. Educational differentials also prove relevant with regard to the recuperation of fertility at older ages as the tempo and quantum of order-specific fertility have responded differently to variations in the economic and policy context, depending on the educational level considered. Differential fertility trends by level of education have thus attenuated the relationship between female educational attainment and completed fertility in recent cohorts.

Spousal separation, selectivity and contextual effects: exploring the relationship between international labour migration and fertility in post-Soviet Tajikistan

This paper contributes to the sparse literature on the impact of temporary migration on fertility in origin areas. It examines the case of male labour migration from post-Soviet Tajikistan, a significant and relatively recent phenomenon. Fertility and migration models are solved simultaneously to account for cross-process correlation. There is clear evidence for a short-term disruptive effect of spousal separation, but it is too early to assess the implications for completed fertility. While there is no evidence for unobserved selectivity at the couple level, there is a significant positive correlation between the migration and fertility processes at the community level.

Education Differences in Intended and Unintended Fertility.

Using a hazards framework and panel data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (1979-2004), we analyze the fertility patterns of a recent cohort of white and black women in the United States. We examine how completed fertility varies by women's education, differentiating between intended and unintended births. We find that the education gradient on fertility comes largely from unintended childbearing, and it is not explained by child-bearing desires or opportunity costs, the two most common explanations in previous research. Less-educated women want no more children than the more educated, so this factor explains none of their higher completed fertility. Less-educated women have lower wages, but wages have little of the negative effect on fertility predicted by economic theories of opportunity cost. We propose three other potential mechanisms linking low education and unintended childbearing, focusing on access to contraception and abortion, relational and economic uncertainty, and consistency in the behaviors necessary to avoid unintended pregnancies. Our work highlights the need to incorporate these mechanisms into future research.

EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN POPULATION GROUPS IN SOUTH AFRICA AND THE TIMING AND NUMBER OF BIRTHS

AbstractFrom 1981 to 2005, the total fertility rate in South Africa has been reduced from an estimated level of 4.6 to 2.8 children per woman. The relative differences in the total fertility rate between population groups, however, remain large. Our empirical analysis of the determinants of the timing of births shows that better‐educated women schedule birth later and have fewer children. The differences in education between population groups account for a substantive part (up to 40%) of the differences in completed fertility between the population groups. Our findings suggest that educational reforms aimed at equal access to education, which benefit African women most, may not only improve the quality of life of women but also, through their impact on fertility behaviour, yield long‐run benefits, as they will have fewer children and more resources to invest in the next generation.