Competing Risks Methodology Research Articles

Risk of Gastric and Small Intestinal Cancer in Patients With Lynch Syndrome: Data From a Large, Community-Based US Population.

Risk of gastric and small intestinal cancer in Lynch syndrome (LS) remains poorly understood. We investigated the risk of gastric and small intestinal cancer in patients with LS in a large, community-based population. This retrospective cohort study included all patients diagnosed with LS between January 1, 1997, and December 31, 2020, at Kaiser Permanente Northern California. Cumulative incidence of gastric cancer and small intestinal cancer was calculated using competing risk methodology. Among 1,106 patients with LS with a median follow-up of 19.3 years (interquartile range [IQR] 9.4-24.0 years), 11 developed gastric cancer (8 MSH2 , 2 MLH1 and 1 PMS2 ) with a median diagnosis age of 56 years (IQR 42-63 years) and 11 developed small intestinal cancer (6 MSH2 , 3 MLH1 , 1 MSH6 and 1 PMS2 ) with a median diagnosis age of 57 years (IQR 50-66 years). Cumulative incidence by age 80 years was 7.26% (95% confidence internal [CI], 1.80-18.03%) for men and 3.43% (95% CI, 0.50-11.71%) for women for gastric cancer and 7.28% (95% CI, 3.19-13.63%) for men and 2.21% (95% CI, 0.23-9.19%) for women for small intestinal cancer. Pathogenic variant carriers of MSH2 and MLH1 had the highest risk of gastric and small intestinal cancer. History of Helicobacter pylori infection was associated with increased risk of gastric cancer (adjusted odds ratio 5.52; 95% CI, 1.72-17.75). Patients with LS, particularly MSH2 and MLH1 pathogenic variant carriers, had significantly increased lifetime risk of gastric and small intestinal cancer. Testing and treatment of H. pylori infection should be considered for all patients with LS.

Incidence and outcome of brain and/or leptomeningeal metastases in HER2-low metastatic breast cancer in the French ESME cohort

Breast cancer (BC) is the second most common cancer that metastasizes to the brain. Particularly up to half of patients with human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive (HER2+) metastatic breast cancer (mBC) may develop brain metastases over the course of the disease. Nevertheless, little is known about the prevalence and the outcome of brain and leptomeningeal metastases (BLMM) in HER2-low BC. We compared the cumulative incidence of BLMM and associated outcomes among patients with HER2-low, HER2-negative (HER2-) and HER2+ mBC. This cohort study was conducted from the Epidemiological Strategy and Medical Economics (ESME) mBC database and included patients treated for mBC between 2012 and 2020 across 18 French comprehensive cancer centers and with known HER2 and hormone receptor (HR) status. The cumulative incidence of BLMM after metastatic diagnosis was estimated using a competing risk methodology with death defined as a competing event. 19 585 patients were included with 6118 (31.2%), 9943 (50.8%) and 3524 (18.0%) being HER2-low, HER2- and HER2+ mBC, respectively. After a median follow-up of 48.6 months [95% confidence interval (CI) 47.7-49.3 months], BLMM were reported in 4727 patients: 1192 (25.2%) were diagnosed with BLMM at first metastatic diagnosis and 3535 (74.8%) after metastatic diagnosis. Multivariable analysis adjusted for age, histological grade, metastases-free interval and HR status showed that the risk of BLMM at metastatic diagnosis was similar in patients with HER2- compared to HER2-low mBC [odds ratio (OR) (95% CI) 1.00 (0.86-1.17)] and higher in those with HER2+ compared to HER2-low [OR (95% CI) 2.23 (1.87-2.66)]. Similar results were found after metastatic diagnosis; the risk of BLMM was similar in HER2- compared to HER2-low [subdistribution hazard ratio (sHR) (95% CI) 1.07 (0.98-1.16)] and higher in the HER2+ group [sHR (95% CI) 1.56 (1.41-1.73)]. The prevalence and evolution of BLMM in HER2-low mBC are similar to those in patients with HER2- tumors. In contrast to patients with HER2+ mBC, the prognosis of BLMM remains dismal in this population.

Gastric and duodenal cancer in individuals with Lynch syndrome: a nationwide cohort study

Lynch syndrome increases the risk of gastric cancer (GC) and duodenal cancer (DC), particularly in individuals with MLH1 and MSH2 pathogenic variants (PVs). To provide further insight into whether, and from what age, esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) surveillance may be beneficial, we evaluated the cumulative incidence and tumour characteristics of GC and DC in a large nationwide cohort of Dutch individuals with LS. For this retrospective nationwide cohort study, clinical data of individuals with LS registered at the Dutch Hereditary Cancer Registry were matched with pathology reports filed by the Dutch Pathology registry. All individuals registered between Jan 1, 1989 and Dec 31, 2021 with proven or putative PVs in one of the mismatch repair genes were included. Cumulative incidences of GC and DC were estimated for high-risk (MLH1, MSH2 and EpCAM) and low-risk (MSH6 and PMS2) PVs using competing risk methodology (Fine and Gray method) with death due to other causes as competing risk. Among 1002 individuals with high-risk and 765 individuals with low-risk PVs, 29GCs (1.6%) and 39 DCs (2.2%) were diagnosed. Cumulative incidence of GC and DC under the age of 50 was very low (≤1%) for all individuals. At age 70 and 75, cumulative incidence of GC was 3% [95% CI 1%-5%] and 5% [3%-8%] for high-risk PVs and 1% [0%-2%] and 1% [0%-2%] for low-risk PVs (p=0.006). For DC, cumulative incidence at age 70 and 75 was 5% [3%-7%] and 6% [3%-8%] in high-risk, 1% [0%-1%] and 2% [0%-4%] in low-risk PVs, respectively (p=0.01). Primary tumour resection was performed in 62% (18/29) of GCs and 77% (30/39) of DC cases. Early-stage GC, defined as TNM stage I, was found in 32% (9/28) of GCs. Early-stage DC, defined as TNM stage I-IIa, was found in 39% (14/36) of DCs. Individuals with MLH1, MSH2, and EpCAM PVs have an increased risk of developing GC and DC at the age of 70 years, but this risk is very low before the age of 50 years. The age of onset of surveillance, the yield of GC and DC during EGD surveillance, and its cost-effectiveness should be subject of future studies. None.

Outcomes After Hybrid Palliation for Infants With Critical Left Heart Obstruction

BackgroundHybrid palliation (bilateral pulmonary artery banding with or without ductal stenting) is an initial management strategy for infants with critical left heart obstruction and serves as palliation until subsequent operations are pursued. ObjectivesThis study sought to determine patient characteristics and factors associated with subsequent outcomes for infants who underwent hybrid palliation. MethodsFrom 2005 to 2019, 214 of 1,236 prospectively enrolled infants within the Congenital Heart Surgeons’ Society’s critical left heart obstruction cohort underwent hybrid palliation across 24 institutions. Multivariable hazard modeling with competing risk methodology was performed to determine risk and factors associated with outcomes of biventricular repair, Fontan procedure, transplantation, or death. ResultsPreoperative comorbidities (eg, prematurity, low birth weight, genetic syndrome) were identified in 70% of infants (150 of 214). Median follow-up was 7 years, ranging up to 17 years. Overall 12-year survival was 55%. At 5 years after hybrid palliation, 9% had biventricular repair, 36% had Fontan procedure, 12% had transplantation, 35% died without surgical endpoints, and 8% were alive without an endpoint. Factors associated with transplantation were absence of ductal stent, older age, absent interatrial communication, smaller aortic root size, larger tricuspid valve area z-score, and larger left ventricular volume. Factors associated with death were low birth weight, concomitant genetic syndrome, cardiopulmonary bypass use during hybrid palliation, moderate to severe tricuspid valve regurgitation, and smaller ascending aortic size. ConclusionsMortality remains high after hybrid palliation for infants with critical left heart obstruction. Nonetheless, hybrid palliation may facilitate biventricular repair for some infants and for others may serve as stabilization for intended functional univentricular palliation or primary transplantation.

Enhanced liver Fibrosis® test predicts liver-related outcomes in the general population

Background & AimsThe Enhanced Liver Fibrosis® (ELF) test exhibits good discriminative performance in detecting advanced liver fibrosis and in predicting liver-related outcomes in patients with specific liver diseases, but large population-based studies are missing. We analysed the predictive performance of the ELF test in a general population cohort. MethodsData were sourced from the Health 2000 study, a Finnish population-based health examination survey conducted in 2000–2001. Subjects with baseline liver disease were excluded. The ELF test was performed on blood samples collected at baseline. Data were linked with national healthcare registers for liver-related outcomes (hospitalisation, cancer, and death). ResultsThe cohort comprised 6,040 individuals (mean age 52.7. 45.6% men) with 67 liver-related outcomes during a median 13.1-year follow-up. ELF predicted liver outcomes (unadjusted hazards ratio 2.70, 95% CI 2.16–3.38). with 5- and 10-year AUCs of 0.81 (95% CI 0.71–0.91) and 0.71 (95% CI 0.63–0.79) by competing-risk methodology. The 10-year risks for liver outcomes increased from 0.5% at ELF <9.8 to 7.1% at ELF ≥11.3, being higher among men than women at any given ELF level. Among individuals with body mass index ≥30 kg/m2, diabetes, or alanine aminotransferase >40 U/L. Five-year AUCs for ELF were 0.85, 0.87, and 0.88, respectively. The predictive ability of the ELF test decreased with time: the 10-year AUCs were 0.78, 0.69, and 0.82, respectively. ConclusionsThe ELF test shows good discriminative performance in predicting liver-related outcomes in a large general population cohort and appears particularly useful for predicting 5-year outcomes in persons with risk factors. Impact and implicationsThe Enhanced Liver Fibrosis test exhibits good performance for predicting liver-related outcomes (hospitalisation, liver cancer, or liver-related death) in the general population, especially in those with risk factors.

Applying competing risks analysis to recurrences of primary breast cancer.

in time-to-event analysis, competing risks are observed when a subject is at risk of multiple types of events. A competing risk is an event that prevents the event of interest from happening or modifies its chance to occur. the purposes of this article are to provide an overview of competing risks analysis and to illustrate its application to the follow-up of breast cancer patients in order to estimate the risk of disease recurrence. cohort study. population-based random sample of patients with stage I-III primary female breast cancer diagnosed in 2000-2013, aged 15 years or older, resident in the Forlì health care district (northern Italy), treated surgically and with available information regarding disease laterality. subhazard ratio, hazard ratio and cumulative incidence function for loco-regional recurrences and distant metastasis during 10 years of follow-up. breast cancer recurrences were evaluated taking into account death from any cause and occurrence of a second primary breast cancer as competing risks. Recent developments in competing risks methodology were used. The results obtained were compared with those from the Cox regression model, in which the competing risks were not accounted for. estimating the risk of recurrence without accounting for the competing risks resulted in a divergence of the hazard/subhazard functions. Competing risks analysis is preferable when the statistical assumption of independence of end-points may be violated.

Wound complications in metastatic spine tumor patients with and without preoperative radiation.

Wound complications are a common adverse event following metastatic spine tumor surgery. Some patients with spinal metastases may first undergo radiation but eventually require spinal surgery because of either cord compression or instability. The authors compared wound complication rates in patients who had undergone surgery for metastatic disease and received preoperative radiation treatments, postoperative radiation, or no radiation. Records from patients treated at the University of California, San Francisco, for metastatic spine disease between 2005 and 2017 were retrospectively reviewed. Baseline characteristics were collected, including preoperative Karnofsky Performance Status (KPS), Spine Instability Neoplastic Score, total radiation dose, indication for surgery, diabetes status, time between radiation and surgery, use of perioperative chemotherapy or steroids, estimated blood loss, extent of fusion, and preoperative albumin level. Wound complication was defined as poor healing, dehiscence, or infection per the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines, within 6 months of surgery. One-way ANOVA was used to compare means across groups. Cumulative incidence analysis with competing risk methodology was used to adjust for risk of death during follow-up. Statistical analysis was performed using R software. Two hundred five patients with adequate medical records were identified. Seventy patients had received preoperative radiation, 74 had received postoperative radiation within 6 months after surgery, and 61 had received no radiation at the surgical site. Wound complication rates were similar across the 3 cohorts: 14.3% (n = 10) in the group with preoperative radiation, 10.8% (n = 8) in the group that received postoperative radiation, and 11.5% (n = 7) in the group with no radiation (p = 0.773). Competing risk analysis showed a higher cumulative incidence of wound complications for the preoperative cohort, though this difference was not significant (p = 0.46). Overall, 89 patients were treated with external beam radiation therapy (EBRT), whereas 55 received stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT). There was no significant difference in wound complications for patients treated with EBRT (11.2%, n = 10) versus SBRT (14.5%, n = 8; p = 0.825). KPS was the only factor correlated with wound complications on univariate analysis (p = 0.03). Wound complication rates did not differ across the 3 cohorts: patients treated with preoperative radiation, postoperative radiation within 6 months of surgery, or no radiation. The effect size was small for KPS and likely does not represent a clinically significant predictor of wound complications.

The Kidney Failure Risk Equation: Evaluation of Novel Input Variables including eGFR Estimated Using the CKD-EPI 2021 Equation in 59 Cohorts.

The kidney failure risk equation (KFRE) uses age, sex, GFR, and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) to predict 2- and 5-year risk of kidney failure in populations with eGFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 . However, the CKD-EPI 2021 creatinine equation for eGFR is now recommended for use but has not been fully tested in the context of KFRE. In 59 cohorts comprising 312,424 patients with CKD, the authors assessed the predictive performance and calibration associated with the use of the CKD-EPI 2021 equation and whether additional variables and accounting for the competing risk of death improves the KFRE's performance. The KFRE generally performed well using the CKD-EPI 2021 eGFR in populations with eGFR <45 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 and was not improved by adding the 2-year prior eGFR slope and cardiovascular comorbidities. The kidney failure risk equation (KFRE) uses age, sex, GFR, and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR) to predict kidney failure risk in people with GFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 . Using 59 cohorts with 312,424 patients with CKD, we tested several modifications to the KFRE for their potential to improve the KFRE: using the CKD-EPI 2021 creatinine equation for eGFR, substituting 1-year average ACR for single-measure ACR and 1-year average eGFR in participants with high eGFR variability, and adding 2-year prior eGFR slope and cardiovascular comorbidities. We also assessed calibration of the KFRE in subgroups of eGFR and age before and after accounting for the competing risk of death. The KFRE remained accurate and well calibrated overall using the CKD-EPI 2021 eGFR equation. The other modifications did not improve KFRE performance. In subgroups of eGFR 45-59 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 and in older adults using the 5-year time horizon, the KFRE demonstrated systematic underprediction and overprediction, respectively. We developed and tested a new model with a spline term in eGFR and incorporating the competing risk of mortality, resulting in more accurate calibration in those specific subgroups but not overall. The original KFRE is generally accurate for eGFR <45 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 when using the CKD-EPI 2021 equation. Incorporating competing risk methodology and splines for eGFR may improve calibration in low-risk settings with longer time horizons. Including historical averages, eGFR slopes, or a competing risk design did not meaningfully alter KFRE performance in most circumstances.

Norwood operation versus comprehensive stage II after bilateral pulmonary artery banding palliation for infants with critical left heart obstruction

ObjectiveTo determine patient characteristics and outcomes after Norwood versus comprehensive stage II (COMPSII) for infants with critical left heart obstruction who had prior hybrid palliation (bilateral pulmonary artery banding ± ductal stent). MethodsFrom 23 Congenital Heart Surgeons' Society institutions (2005-2020), 138 infants underwent hybrid palliation followed by either Norwood (n = 73, 53%) or COMPSII (n = 65). Baseline characteristics were compared between Norwood and COMPSII groups. Parametric hazard model with competing risk methodology was used to determine risk and factors associated with outcomes of Fontan, transplantation, or death. ResultsInfants who underwent Norwood versus COMPSII had a higher prevalence of prematurity (26% vs 14%, P = .08), lower birth weight (median 2.8 vs 3.2 kg, P < .01) and less frequent ductal stenting (37% vs 99%; P < .01). Norwood was performed at a median age of 44 days and median weight of 3.5 kg, versus COMPSII at 162 days and 6.0 kg (both P < .01). Median follow-up was 6.5 years. At 5 years after Norwood and COMPSII, respectively; 50% versus 68% had Fontan (P = .16), 3% versus 5% had transplantation (P = .70), 40% versus 15% died (P = .10), and 7% versus 11% are alive without transition, respectively. For factors associated with either mortality or Fontan, only preoperative mechanical ventilation occurred more frequently in the Norwood group. ConclusionsHigher prevalence of prematurity, lower birth weight, and other patient-related characteristics in the Norwood versus COMPSII groups may influence differences in outcomes that were not statistically significant for this limited risk-adjusted cohort. The clinical decision regarding Norwood versus COMPSII after initial hybrid palliation remains challenging.

Skeletal-Related Events After Surgery With or Without Radiotherapy for Bone Metastases to Weight-Bearing Bones.

Introduction In patients with metastatic disease involving weight-bearing bones, postoperative radiotherapy (PORT) is commonly administered following surgical stabilization of an impending or confirmed pathologic fracture to reduce the risk of a seeded local recurrence. The goalwas to re-evaluate the beneficial effect of PORT in a modern cohort of patientsand determine any potential clinical predictors of skeletal-related events (SREs) which were defined as a pathologic fracture or the necessity for radiation or surgery to the affected bone. Methods Consecutive patients undergoing surgical stabilization of metastatic disease to weight-bearing bones of the extremities between 2012 and 2019 were reviewed. Patient, disease, and treatment factors were abstracted. The cumulative incidenceof SREs was determined using competing risks methodology; overall survival (OS) was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Results A total of 82 patients were identified, 74% of whom had undergone intramedullary nail fixation and 26% internal fixation or replacement. The femur was the most commonly involved bone (94%).A majority (78%) had an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status of 1-2. Bone-strengthening agents were given to 38% and PORT to 54%. The median PORT dose was 30 Gy in 10 fractions and the median percent coverage of surgical hardware was 100% (range, 25-100). SREs occurred in 10 of 82 patients. There were no differences between no RT and RT groups for the two-year cumulative incidence of SREs (8.2% vs 11.5%, p=0.59) or two-year cumulative incidence of local failure (10.8% vs4.6%, p=0.53). The only identified predictors of SREs were the use of bone-strengthening agents (hazard ratio [HR] 0.22, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.05-1.06, p=0.06) and malnutrition (HR 3.69, 95% CI 0.91-14.93, p=0.07). For patients treated with PORT, a biologically effective dose or percent coverage of surgical hardware was not associated with SREs. Conclusion In this series, the addition of PORT following surgery for metastatic disease involving weight-bearing bones does not significantly affect the rate of SREs. The use of bone-strengthening agents appears protective, and malnourished patients appear particularly at high risk for future SRE.

Abstract 10158: Initial Bilateral Pulmonary Artery Banding for Infants With Critical Left Heart Obstruction: A Multi-Institutional Analysis of Outcomes

Introduction: The hybrid procedure (bilateral PA bands [PAB] ± ductal stent) is a contemporary management option for infants with critical left heart obstruction. We sought to determine patient/procedural characteristics, subsequent outcomes and associated factors after PAB in a multi-institutional study. Methods: From 2005-2019, 214 of 1236 infants from 24 Congenital Heart Surgeons’ Society participating institutions underwent PAB. Median follow-up was 7 years. Parametric hazard modeling with competing risk methodology was performed to determine risk and associated factors for end-states of biventricular repair (BVR), Fontan, transplantation (Tx) or death without an end-state. Results: PAB was performed at a median age of 7 days &amp; median weight of 3.1 kg. Intention of PAB varied - institutional preference (21%), non-cardiac comorbidities (20%), BVR consideration (12%), etc. Ductal stent was placed in 69% of patients (74% same day as PAB) and atrial septal interventions occurred in 61% (24% same day as PAB). Preoperative comorbidities (e.g. prematurity, genetic syndromes, neurological diagnoses, etc.) were present in 70%. At 5 years, 9% had reached BVR, 36% Fontan and 12% Tx (21/26 Tx immediately after PAB), with 35% having died and 8% alive without an end-state (Figure). Significant factors associated with BVR were presence of VSD and ductal stent; with Tx: earlier era, underlying aortic atresia, older age and greater weight at PAB, and absence of ductal stent; with death: low birth weight, ≥ moderate tricuspid valve regurgitation before PAB, &amp; older age at PAB. Conclusions: Heterogeneity is prevalent in patient/procedural characteristics and subsequent procedures and outcomes after PAB, possibly influenced by institutional preference and different intended management pathways. There is important mortality and &lt;50% of patients achieve a Fontan or BVR. Preoperative factors influence the use of this approach and thus are an important influence on outcomes.

Disparities in Lung Transplant among Patients with Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis: An Analysis of the IPF-PRO Registry.

RationaleLung transplant offers the potential to extend life for patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF); yet, this therapeutic modality is only available to a small proportion of patients.ObjectivesTo identify clinical characteristics and social determinants of health that differentially associate with lung transplant compared with death in patients with IPF.MethodsWe evaluated data from the Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis Prospective Outcomes (IPF-PRO) Registry, a multicenter U.S. registry of patients with IPF that was diagnosed or confirmed at the enrolling center in the previous 6 months. Patients were enrolled between June 2014 and October 2018. Patients who were listed for lung transplant were not eligible to enroll in the registry, but patients could be listed for transplant after enrollment. We performed a multivariable time-to-event analysis incorporating competing risks methodology to examine differential associations between prespecified covariates and the risk of lung transplant versus death. Covariates included factors related to lung transplant eligibility, clinical characteristics of IPF, and social determinants of health. Covariates were modeled as time independent or time dependent as appropriate.ResultsAmong 955 patients with IPF, event rates of lung transplant and death were 7.4% and 16.3%, respectively, at 2 years. Covariates with the strongest differential association were age, median zip code income, and enrollment at a center with a lung transplant program. Lung transplant was less likely (hazard ratio [HR], 0.13 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.06–0.28] per 5-yr increase) and death more likely (HR, 1.41 [95% CI, 1.22–1.64] per 5-yr increase) among those older than 70 years of age. Higher median zip code income was associated with lung transplant (HR, 1.22 [95% CI, 1.13–1.31] per $10,000 increase) but not death (HR, 0.99 [95% CI, 0.94–1.04] per $10,000 increase). Enrollment at a center with a lung transplant program was associated with lung transplant (HR, 4.31 [95% CI, 1.76–10.54]) but not death (HR, 0.99 [95% CI, 0.69–1.43]). Oxygen use with activity was associated with both lung transplant and death, but more strongly with lung transplant. A higher number of comorbidities was associated with an increased likelihood of death but not lung transplant.ConclusionsFor patients in the Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis Prospective Outcomes Registry, median zip code income and access to a lung transplant center differentially impact the risk of lung transplant compared with death, regardless of disease severity measures or other transplant eligibility factors. Interventions are needed to mitigate inequalities in lung transplantation based on socioeconomic status.Clinical trial registered with www.clinicaltrials.gov (NCT01915511).

Nomogram to predict contralateral breast cancer risk in breast cancer survivors: A SEER-based study.

The main purpose of this study was to build a prediction model for patients with contralateral breast cancer (CBC) using competing risks methodology. The aim is to help clinicians predict the probability of CBC in breast cancer (BC) survivors.We reviewed data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database of 434,065 patients with BC. Eligible patients were used to quantify the association between the development of CBC and multiple characteristics of BC patients using competing risk models. A nomogram was also created to facilitate clinical visualization and analysis. Finally, the stability of the model was verified using concordance index and calibration plots, and decision curve analysis was used to evaluate the clinical utility of the model by calculating the net benefit.Four hundred thirty-four thousand sixty-five patients were identified, of whom 6944 (1.6%) developed CBC in the 10 years follow-up. The 10-year cumulative risk of developing CBC was 2.69%. According to a multivariate competing risk model, older patients with invasive lobular carcinoma who had undergone unilateral BC surgery, and whose tumor was better differentiated, of smaller size and ER-negative/PR-positive, had a higher risk of CBC. The calibration plots illustrated an acceptable correlation between the prediction by nomogram and actual observation, as the calibration curve was closed to the 45° diagonal line. The concordance index for the nomogram was 0.65, which indicated it was well calibrated for individual risk of CBC. Decision curve analysis produced a wide range of risk thresholds under which the model we built would yield a net benefit.BC survivors remain at high risk of developing CBC. Patients with CBC have a worse clinical prognosis compared to those with unilateral BC. We built a predictive model for the risk of developing CBC based on a large data cohort to help clinicians identify patients at high risk, which can then help them plan individualized surveillance and treatment.

The implementation of CDK 4/6 inhibitors and its impact on treatment choices in HR+/HER2- advanced breast cancer patients: A study of the Dutch SONABRE Registry.

In August 2017, cyclin‐dependent kinase 4/6 (CDK4/6) inhibitors combined with endocrine therapy have been reimbursed in the Netherlands for patients with hormone receptor positive (HR+), HER2 negative (HER2−) advanced breast cancer (ABC). This study evaluates the implementation of CDK4/6 inhibitors and changes in treatment choices in the Netherlands. All patients diagnosed with HR+/HER2− ABC in 2009 to 2018 in seven hospitals were selected from the Southeast Netherlands Advanced Breast cancer (SONABRE) registry. The 2‐year cumulative use of CDK4/6 inhibitors since reimbursement date (August 2017) was assessed using competing‐risk methodology in two cohorts. The first cohort included patients with ABC diagnosis between August 2017 and December 2018. The second cohort included patients with ABC diagnosis between 2009 and August 2017, and still alive on August 1, 2017. In addition, treatment choices in the first three lines of therapy in calendar years 2009 to 2018 were evaluated for the total study population. Among patients diagnosed since August 2017 (n = 214), 50% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 43‐57) received CDK4/6 inhibitors within 2 years beyond diagnosis. Of eligible patients diagnosed before August 2017 (n = 417), 31% (95% CI = 27‐36) received CDK4/6 inhibitors within 2 years following reimbursement. Another 20% of both cohorts are still CDK4/6 inhibitor naïve and on first‐line therapy. The use of chemotherapy decreased in first two lines of therapy between 2009 and 2018 (first‐line: 29%‐13%; second‐line: 26%‐19%). The implementation rate of CDK4/6 inhibitors since reimbursement is currently 50% within 2 years beyond diagnosis and is expected to increase further. The implementation of targeted therapy decreased the use of chemotherapy as first‐line therapy.

LMD-21. Headache Improvement Predicts Survival after CSF diversion in Leptomeningeal Disease

BackgroundLeptomeningeal carcinomatosis (LMD) is a seeding of the leptomeninges by malignant cells. Clinical, treatment and patient-related factors have been described in patients with LMD. Current data are limited by small sample size, particularly in patients undergoing ventriculoperitoneal shunting (VPS) as part of the treatment regimen.ObjectiveThis study presents the largest cohort of LMD patients in the literature undergoing cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) diversion and seeks to identify prognostic factors related to survival.MethodsA retrospective review of patients diagnosed with LMD between 2010 and 2016 at a quaternary referral center was performed. Cox proportional hazards modeling was utilized to identify variables associated with improved overall survival from LMD diagnosis. Overall survival was depicted using Kaplan-Meier methodology. Competing risk methodology was used to identify variables associated with VPS, considering death as a competing event.ResultsOf the 314 patients identified, 112 underwent VPS placement. The median overall survival from LMD diagnosis was 3.9 months (95% CI: 3.2–4.4). The presence of headaches, increased opening pressure, and gait difficulty increased the likelihood of VPS placement (all p<0.05). VPS, older age, lower Karnofsky Performance Status (KPS), higher opening pressure and CSF nucleated cell count (NCC) increased the risk of death (all p<0.05). Patients reporting headache improvement after VPS had better survival (p<0.05).ConclusionsHeadache, increased opening pressure and gait instability were associated with higher rate of VPS placement and may portend more aggressive disease. Headache improvement following VPS is a favorable prognostic sign, suggesting survival advantage for patients with hydrocephalus undergoing VPS. Age, KPS, VPS, opening pressure, CSF NCC, concomitant visceral metastases and histology-specific molecular profile impact survival.

Efficacy and Survival after Palliative Radiotherapy for Malignant Pulmonary Obstruction.

Introduction: The purpose of this study was to determine the efficacy of palliative radiotherapy (PRT) for patients with pulmonary obstruction from advanced malignancy and identify factors associated with lung re-expansion and survival. Materials and Methods: We reviewed all patients treated with PRT for malignant pulmonary obstruction (n = 108) at our institution between 2010 and 2018. Radiographic evidence of lung re-expansion was determined through review of follow-up CT or chest X-ray. Cumulative incidence of re-expansion and overall survival (OS) were estimated using competing risk methodology. Clinical characteristics were evaluated for association with re-expansion, OS, and early mortality. Treatment time to remaining life ratio (TT:RL) was evaluated as a novel metric for palliative treatment. Results: Eighty-one percent of patients had collapse of an entire lung lobe, 46% had Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status 3-4, and 64% were inpatient at consultation. Eighty-four patients had follow-up imaging available, and 25 (23%) of all patients had lung re-expansion at median time of 35 days. Rates of death without re-expansion were 38% and 65% at 30 and 90 days, respectively. Median OS was 56 days. Death within 30 days of PRT occurred in 38%. Inpatients and larger tumors trended toward lower rates of re-expansion. Notable factors associated with OS were re-expansion, nonlung histology, tumor size, and performance status. Median TT:RL was 0.11 and significantly higher for subgroups: ECOG 3-4 (0.19), inpatients (0.16), patients with larger tumors (0.14), those unfit for systemic therapy (0.17), and with 10-fraction PRT (0.14). Conclusion: One-fourth of patients experienced re-expansion after PRT for malignant pulmonary obstruction. Survival is poor and a significant proportion of remaining life may be spent on treatment. Careful consideration of these clinical factors is recommended when considering PRT fractionation.

Dose-escalated intensity-modulated radiotherapy in patients with locally advanced laryngeal and hypopharyngeal cancers: ART DECO, a phase III randomised controlled trial

BackgroundRadical (chemo)radiotherapy offers potentially curative treatment for patients with locally advanced laryngeal or hypopharyngeal cancer. We aimed to show that dose-escalated intensity-modulated radiotherapy (DE-IMRT) improved locoregional control. MethodsWe performed a phase III open-label randomised controlled trial in patients with laryngeal or hypopharyngeal cancer (AJCC III-IVa/b, TNM 7). Patients were randomised (1:1) to DE-IMRT or standard dose IMRT (ST-IMRT) using a minimisation algorithm, balancing for centre, tumour site, nodal status and chemotherapy use. DE-IMRT was 67.2 gray (Gy) in 28 fractions (f) to the primary tumour and 56Gy/28f to at-risk nodes; ST-IMRT was 65Gy/30f to primary tumour and 54Gy/30f to at-risk nodes. Suitable patients received 2 cycles of concomitant cisplatin and up to 3 cycles of platinum-based induction chemotherapy. The primary end-point was time to locoregional failure analysed by intention-to-treat analysis using competing risk methodology. FindingsBetween February 2011 and October 2015, 276 patients (138 ST-IMRT; 138 DE-IMRT) were randomised. A preplanned interim futility analysis met the criterion for early closure. After a median follow-up of 47.9 months (interquartile range 37.5–60.5), there were locoregional failures in 38 of 138 (27.5%) ST-IMRT patients and 42 of 138 (30.4%) DE-IMRT patients; an adjusted subhazard ratio of 1.16 (95% confidence interval: 0.74–1.83, p = 0.519) indicated no evidence of benefit with DE-IMRT. Acute grade 2 pharyngeal mucositis was reported more frequently with DE-IMRT than with ST-IMRT (42% vs. 32%). No differences in grade ≥3 acute or late toxicity rates were seen. ConclusionDE-IMRT did not improve locoregional control in patients with laryngeal or hypopharyngeal cancer.The trial is registered: ISRCTN01483375.

Time-Related Risk of Pulmonary Conduit Re-replacement: A Congenital Heart Surgeons’ Society Study

BackgroundPatients receiving a right ventricle to pulmonary artery conduit (PC) in infancy will require successive procedures or replacements, each with variable longevity. We sought to identify factors associated with time-related risk of a subsequent surgical replacement (PC3) or transcatheter pulmonary valve insertion (TPVI) after a second surgically placed PC (PC2). MethodsFrom 2002 to 2016, 630 patients from 29 Congenital Heart Surgeons’ Society member institutions survived to discharge after initial valved PC insertion (PC1) at age ≤ 2 years. Of those, 355 underwent surgical replacement (PC2) of that initial conduit. Competing risk methodology and multiphase parametric hazard analyses were used to identify factors associated with time-related risk of PC3 or TPVI. ResultsOf 355 PC2 patients (median follow-up, 5.3 years), 65 underwent PC3 and 41 TPVI. Factors at PC2 associated with increased time-related risk of PC3 were smaller PC2 Z score (hazard ratio [HR] 1.6, P < .001), concomitant aortic valve intervention (HR 7.6, P = .009), aortic allograft (HR 2.2, P = .008), younger age (HR 1.4, P < .001), and larger Z score of PC1 (HR 1.2, P = .04). Factors at PC2 associated with increased time-related risk of TPVI were aortic allograft (HR: 3.3, P = .006), porcine unstented conduit (HR 4.7, P < .001), and older age (HR 2.3, P = .01). ConclusionsAortic allograft as PC2 was associated with increased time-related risk of both PC3 and TPVI. Surgeons may reduce risk of these subsequent procedures by not selecting an aortic homograft at PC2, and by oversizing the conduit when anatomically feasible.

Factors associated with mortality or transplantation versus Fontan completion after cavopulmonary shunt for patients with tricuspid atresia

ObjectiveTricuspid atresia with normally related great vessels (TA) is considered the optimal substrate for the Fontan pathway. The factors associated with death or transplantation after cavopulmonary shunt (CPS) are underappreciated. We aimed to determine factors associated with CPS–Fontan interstage death/transplantation versus transition to Fontan in TA. MethodsA total of 417 infants younger than 3 months of age with TA were enrolled (January 1999 to February 2020) from 40 institutions into the Congenital Heart Surgeons' Society TA cohort. Parametric competing risk methodology was used to determine factors associated with the competing end points of death/transplantation without Fontan completion, and transition to Fontan. ResultsCPS was performed in 382 patients with TA; of those, 5% died or underwent transplantation without transition to Fontan and 91% transitioned to Fontan by 5 years after CPS. Prenatal diagnosis (hazard ratio [HR], 0.74; P < .001) and pulmonary artery band (PAB) at CPS (HR, 0.50; P < .001) were negatively associated with Fontan completion. Preoperative moderate or greater mitral valve regurgitation (HR, 3.0; P < .001), concomitant mitral valve repair (HR, 11.0; P < .001), PAB at CPS (HR, 3.0; P < .001), postoperative superior vena cava interventions (HR, 9.0; P < .001), and CPS takedown (HR, 40.0; P < .001) were associated with death/transplantation. ConclusionsThe mortality rate after CPS in patients with TA is notable. Those with preoperative mitral valve regurgitation remain a high-risk group. PAB at the time of CPS being associated with both increased risk of death and decreased Fontan completion may represent a deleterious effect of antegrade pulmonary blood flow in the CPS circulation.

Predicting Potential Prevention Effects on Hospital Burden of Nosocomial Infections: A Multistate Modeling Approach

ObjectivesHospital-acquired infections (HAIs) place a substantial burden on health systems. Tools are required to quantify the change in this burden as a result of a preventive intervention. We aim to estimate how much a reduction in the rate of hospital-acquired infections translates into a change in hospital mortality and length of stay. MethodsUsing multistate modelling and competing risks methodology, we created a tool to estimate the reduction in burden after the introduction of a preventive effect on the infection rate. The tool requires as inputs the patients’ length of hospital stay, patients’ infection information (status, time), patients’ final outcome (discharged alive, dead), and a preventive effect. We demonstrated the methods on both simulated data and 3 published data sets from Germany, France, and Spain. ResultsA hypothetical prevention that cuts the infection rate in half would result in 21 lives and 2212 patient-days saved in French ventilator-associated pneumonia data, 61 lives and 3125 patient-days saved in Spanish nosocomial infection data, and 20 lives and 1585 patient-days saved in German nosocomial pneumonia data. ConclusionsOur tool provides a quick and easy means of acquiring an impression of the impact a preventive measure would have on the burden of an infection. The tool requires quantities routinely collected and computation can be done with a calculator. R code is provided for researchers to determine the burden in various settings with various effects. Furthermore, cost data can be used to get the financial benefit of the reduction in burden.