Enhanced liver Fibrosis® test predicts liver-related outcomes in the general population

Abstract

Background & AimsThe Enhanced Liver Fibrosis® (ELF) test exhibits good discriminative performance in detecting advanced liver fibrosis and in predicting liver-related outcomes in patients with specific liver diseases, but large population-based studies are missing. We analysed the predictive performance of the ELF test in a general population cohort. MethodsData were sourced from the Health 2000 study, a Finnish population-based health examination survey conducted in 2000–2001. Subjects with baseline liver disease were excluded. The ELF test was performed on blood samples collected at baseline. Data were linked with national healthcare registers for liver-related outcomes (hospitalisation, cancer, and death). ResultsThe cohort comprised 6,040 individuals (mean age 52.7. 45.6% men) with 67 liver-related outcomes during a median 13.1-year follow-up. ELF predicted liver outcomes (unadjusted hazards ratio 2.70, 95% CI 2.16–3.38). with 5- and 10-year AUCs of 0.81 (95% CI 0.71–0.91) and 0.71 (95% CI 0.63–0.79) by competing-risk methodology. The 10-year risks for liver outcomes increased from 0.5% at ELF <9.8 to 7.1% at ELF ≥11.3, being higher among men than women at any given ELF level. Among individuals with body mass index ≥30 kg/m2, diabetes, or alanine aminotransferase >40 U/L. Five-year AUCs for ELF were 0.85, 0.87, and 0.88, respectively. The predictive ability of the ELF test decreased with time: the 10-year AUCs were 0.78, 0.69, and 0.82, respectively. ConclusionsThe ELF test shows good discriminative performance in predicting liver-related outcomes in a large general population cohort and appears particularly useful for predicting 5-year outcomes in persons with risk factors. Impact and implicationsThe Enhanced Liver Fibrosis test exhibits good performance for predicting liver-related outcomes (hospitalisation, liver cancer, or liver-related death) in the general population, especially in those with risk factors.