Competing Risk Survival Analysis Research Articles

Assisted reproduction in Spain, outcome and socioeconomic determinants of access

Research questionWe analyzed two questions. First, the effectiveness of public Assisted Reproductive Technologies (ART) in Spain compared with private ones, measured by the time since initiating ART treatment until achieving pregnancy, accounting for age and socioeconomic factors. Second, socioeconomic determinants of access to ART, referring primarily to financial means derived by employment, income, and wealth.DesignWe applied statistical models on data extracted from the national Spanish Fertility Survey from 2018. The first topic was analyzed by competing risk survival analysis conducted on a sample of 667 women who initiate ART treatment since 2000. The second, by a Bivariate Probit model conducted on a sample of 672 women older than 41 years who required ART services.ResultsThe first analysis raised that throughout the treatment, patients treated exclusively in private clinics had on average a higher cumulative incidence of becoming pregnant compared with patients who approached public clinics. The second analysis raised that both higher household equivalent income and higher education increase the likelihood of accessing ART in a private clinic and decrease the tendency of accessing public clinics or failing to access any service. Moreover, being single decreases the likelihood of accessing public clinics or ART services in general.ConclusionsLong waiting periods could be the main reason for the lower incidence of getting pregnant in public healthcare, explaining why patients choose private over public care. We develop a broader discussion over the extent of Spanish public funding of ART, the unequal medical outcome, and potential options for optimization.

The Association between Sex and Risk of Alzheimer's Disease in Adults with Down Syndrome.

Background: Sex differences in the risk of Alzheimer’s Disease (AD) in adults with Down Syndrome (DS) have not been extensively investigated, and existing studies have found conflicting results. This study examined the effect of sex on the risk of AD in adults with DS, adjusted for covariates. Methods: Adults with DS were assessed longitudinally for the development of AD. Competing risk survival analyses were used to determine the effect of sex alone and after adjustment for APOE-ε4 status, ethnicity, and level of intellectual disability (ID). Results: Sex differences were significant only in adults over 60 years of age, where men with DS were 6.32 (95% CI: 2.11–18.96, p < 0.001) times more likely to develop AD compared with age-matched women with DS. Conclusions: There is an age-associated effect of sex on the risk of AD, with men over 60 years old having six times the risk of AD compared with age-matched women, independent of APOE-ε4 status, ethnicity, and level of ID.

Risk factors for in-hospital mortality in laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 patients in the Netherlands: A competing risk survival analysis.

To date, survival data on risk factors for COVID-19 mortality in western Europe is limited, and none of the published survival studies have used a competing risk approach. This study aims to identify risk factors for in-hospital mortality in COVID-19 patients in the Netherlands, considering recovery as a competing risk. In this observational multicenter cohort study we included adults with PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection that were admitted to one of five hospitals in the Netherlands (March to May 2020). We performed a competing risk survival analysis, presenting cause-specific hazard ratios (HRCS) for the effect of preselected factors on the absolute risk of death and recovery. 1,006 patients were included (63.9% male; median age 69 years, IQR: 58-77). Patients were hospitalized for a median duration of 6 days (IQR: 3-13); 243 (24.6%) of them died, 689 (69.9%) recovered, and 74 (7.4%) were censored. Patients with higher age (HRCS 1.10, 95% CI 1.08-1.12), immunocompromised state (HRCS 1.46, 95% CI 1.08-1.98), who used anticoagulants or antiplatelet medication (HRCS 1.38, 95% CI 1.01-1.88), with higher modified early warning score (MEWS) (HRCS 1.09, 95% CI 1.01-1.18), and higher blood LDH at time of admission (HRCS 6.68, 95% CI 1.95-22.8) had increased risk of death, whereas fever (HRCS 0.70, 95% CI 0.52-0.95) decreased risk of death. We found no increased mortality risk in male patients, high BMI or diabetes. Our competing risk survival analysis confirms specific risk factors for COVID-19 mortality in a the Netherlands, which can be used for prediction research, more intense in-hospital monitoring or prioritizing particular patients for new treatments or vaccination.

Socioeconomic Status Is Associated with the Risk of Hepatic Encephalopathy after Transjugular Intrahepatic Portosystemic Shunt Creation

PurposeTo determine whether socioeconomic status (SES) is associated with hepatic encephalopathy (HE) risk after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) creation. Materials and MethodsThis single-institution retrospective study included 368 patients (mean age = 56.7 years; n = 229 males) from 5 states who underwent TIPS creation. SES was estimated using the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality SES index, a metric based on neighborhood housing, education, and income statistics. Episodes of new or worsening HE after TIPS creation, defined as hospitalization for HE or escalation in outpatient medical therapy, were identified from medical records. Multivariable ordinal regression, negative binomial regression, and competing risks survival analysis were used to identify factors associated with SES quartile, the number of episodes of new or worsening HE per unit time after TIPS creation, and mortality after TIPS creation, respectively. ResultsThere were 83, 113, 99, and 73 patients in the lowest, second, third, and highest SES quartiles, respectively. In multivariable regression, only older age (β = 0.04, confidence interval [CI] = 0.02–0.05; P < .001) and white, non-Hispanic ethnicity (β = 0.64, CI = 0.07–1.21; P = .03) were associated with higher SES quartile. In multivariable regression, lower SES quartile (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 0.80, CI = 0.68–0.94; P = .004), along with older age, male sex, higher model for end-stage liver disease score, nonalcoholic steatohepatitis, and proton pump inhibitor use were associated with higher rates of HE after TIPS creation. Ethnicity was not associated with the rate of HE after TIPS creation (IRR = 0.77, CI = 0.46–1.29; P = .28). In multivariable survival analysis, neither SES quartile nor ethnicity predicted mortality after creation of a TIPS. ConclusionLower SES is associated with higher rates of new or worsening HE after TIPS creation.

Comparison of Ellipsys Percutaneous and Proximal Forearm Gracz-Type Surgical Arteriovenous Fistulas

Percutaneous arteriovenous fistulas (AVF) are created by establishing a proximal forearm anastomosis and offer a safe and reliable vascular access. This study compares the Ellipsys percutaneous AVF with a proximal forearm Gracz-type surgical AVF, chosen for comparison as it is constructed at the same anatomical site. Retrospective study of prospectively collected clinical data. All vascular access procedures conducted during a 34-month period were reviewed. The study groups comprised 89 percutaneous AVFs and 69 surgical AVFs. Percutaneous or surgical AVF placement. AVF patency, function, and complications. Patency rates for each AVF group were evaluated by competing risk survival analysis using a cumulative incidence function. Association of primary, primary assisted, and secondary patency with the AVF groups was examined by Cox proportional hazard models. Technical success was 100% for both groups. Average procedure times were 14 minutes for percutaneous AVFs and 74 minutes for surgical AVFs (P< 0.001). Proximal radial artery (PRA) was used in all percutaneous AVF cases. Inflow for surgical AVFs included radial (30%), ulnar (12%), and brachial (58%) arteries. Outflow veins for both groups were the cephalic and/or basilic veins. Access flow volumes, times to maturation, and overall numbers of interventions per patient-year were not significantly different. Cumulative incidence of primary patency failure at 12 months was lower for surgical AVF (47% vs 64%, P= 0.1), but secondary patency failure was not different between groups (20% vs 12%, P= 0.3). PRA surgical AVFs had similar primary patency (65% vs 64%, P= 0.8) but higher secondary patency failure rates than percutaneous AVFs at 12 months (34% vs 12%, P= 0.04). Retrospective study with a relatively short follow-up period, and not all patients required hemodialysis at the end of study. Both percutaneous and surgical AVFs demonstrated high rates of technical success and secondary patency. Percutaneous AVFs required shorter procedure times. The rate of intervention was similar. When a distal radial artery AVF is not feasible, percutaneous AVF might offer an appropriate procedure for creating a safe and functional access, maintaining further proximal forearm surgical AVF creation options.

Therapeutic plasma-exchange improves systemic inflammation and survival in acute-on-chronic liver failure: A propensity-score matched study from AARC.

Plasma-exchange (PE) has improved survival in acute liver failure by ameliorating systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS). We evaluated PE and compared it to Fractional Plasma Separation and Adsorption (FPSA) and standard medical treatment (SMT) in a large multinational cohort of ACLF patients. Data were prospectively collected from the AARC database and analysed. Matching by propensity risk score (PRS) was performed. Competing risk survival analysis was done to identify deaths because of multiorgan failure (MOF). In a subset of 10 patients, we also evaluated the mechanistic basis of response to PE. ACLF patients (n=1866, mean age 44.3±12.3 yrs, 93% males, 65% alcoholics) received either artificial liver support (ALS) (n=162); [PE (n=131), FPSA (n=31)] or were continued on standard medical therapy (SMT) (n=1704). In the PRS-matched cohort (n=208, [ALS-119; PE-94, FPSA-25)], SMT-89). ALS therapies were associated with a significantly higher resolution of SIRS (Odd's ratio 9.23,3.42-24.8), lower and delayed development of MOF (Hazard ratio 7.1, 4.5-11.1), and lower liver-failure-related deaths as compared to FPSA and SMT (P<.05). PE cleared inflammatory cytokines, damage-associated molecular patterns, and endotoxin in all patients. Responders improved monocyte phagocytic function and mitochondrial respiration and increased the anti-inflammatory cytokine interleukin-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1RA) compared to non-responders. PE was associated with lesser adverse effects as compared to FPSA. PE improves systemic inflammation and lowers the development of MOF in patients with ACLF. Plasma-exchange provides significant survival benefit over FPSA and could be a preferred modality of liver support for ACLF patients.

Effect of race and ethnicity on influenza vaccine uptake among older US Medicare beneficiaries: a record-linkage cohort study

Seasonal influenza vaccine (SIV) uptake among US adults aged 65 years or older remains suboptimal and stagnant. Further, there is growing concern around racial and ethnic disparities in uptake. We aimed to assess racial and ethnic disparities in overall SIV and in high-dose vaccine (HDV) uptake among Medicare beneficiaries during the 2015-16 influenza season and sought to identify possible mediators for observed disparities. We did a historical record-linkage cohort study using Medicare (a US national health insurance programme) databases, which included all older adults (≥65 years) enrolled in Medicare during the study period (July 1, 2015, to June 30, 2016). We excluded beneficiaries of Medicare Part C (managed care offered by private companies), and residents of long-term care facilities. The primary outcome was SIV receipt during the study period, classified into receipt of HDV and standard-dose vaccines (SDVs, representing all other SIVs). SIV uptake probabilities were estimated using competing-risk survival analysis methods. Mediation analyses were done to investigate potential mediators of the association between race and ethnicity and uptake. During the study period, of 26·5 million beneficiaries in the study cohort, 47·4% received a SIV, 52·7% of whom received HDV. Compared with white beneficiaries (49·4%), Hispanic (29·1%), Black (32·6%), and Asian (47·6%) beneficiaries were less likely to be vaccinated and, when vaccinated, were less likely to receive HDV (37·8% for Hispanic people, 41·1% for Black people, and 40·3% for Asian people, compared with 53·8% of white people who received HDV). Among those vaccinated, after accounting for region, income, chronic conditions, and health-care use, minority groups were 26-32% less likely to receive HDV, relative to white people (odds ratio [OR] 0·68 [95% CI 0·68-0·69] for Black people; OR 0·71 [0·71-0·72] for Asian people; and OR 0·74 [0·73-0·74] for Hispanic people). Substantial racial and ethnic disparities in SIV uptake among Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 years or older are evident. New legislative, fiscal, and educational strategies are urgently needed to address these inequities. Sanofi Pasteur.

Mortality risk associated with combinations of loneliness and social isolation. Findings from The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA).

BackgroundSocial distancing and similar measures in response to the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic have greatly increased loneliness and social isolation among older adults. Understanding the association between loneliness and mortality is therefore critically important. We examined whether combinations of loneliness and social isolation, using a metric named social asymmetry, was associated with increased mortality risk.MethodsThe sample was derived from participants in The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing, a nationally representative sample of community-dwelling older adults aged ≥50. Survey data were linked to official death registration records. Cox proportional hazards regressions and competing risk survival analyses were used to examine the association between social asymmetry and all-cause and cause-specific mortality.ResultsOf four social asymmetry groups, concordant low lonely (low loneliness, low isolation) included 35.5% of participants; 26.4% were concordant high lonely (high loneliness, high isolation); 19.2% were discordant robust (low loneliness, high isolation) and 18.9% discordant susceptible (high loneliness, low isolation). The concordant high lonely (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.43, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.09–1.87) and discordant robust (HR = 1.37, 95% CI: 1.04–1.81) groups had an increased mortality risk compared to those in the concordant low lonely group. The concordant high lonely group had an increased risk of mortality due to diseases of the circulatory system (sub-distribution hazard ratio = 1.52, 95% CI: 1.03–2.25).ConclusionWe found that social asymmetry predicted mortality over a 7-year follow-up period. Our results confirm that a mismatch between subjective loneliness and objective social isolation, as well as the combination of loneliness and social isolation, were associated with an increased all-cause mortality risk.

Predictors of death after receiving a modified Blalock-Taussig shunt in cyanotic heart children: A competing risk analysis.

ObjectiveTo determine risk factors affecting time-to-death ≤90 and >90 days in children who underwent a modified Blalock-Taussig shunt (MBTS).MethodsData from a retrospective cohort study were obtained from children aged 0–3 years who experienced MBTS between 2005 and 2016. Time-to-death (prior to Glenn/repair), time-to-alive up until December 2017 without repair, and time-to-progression to Glenn/repair following MBTS were presented using competing risks survival analysis. Demographic, surgical and anesthesia-related factors were recorded. Time-to-death ≤90 days and >90 days was analyzed using multivariate time-dependent Cox regression models to identify independent predictors and presented by adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI).ResultsOf 380 children, 119 died, 122 survived and 139 progressed to Glenn/repair. Time-to-death probability (95% CI) within 90 days was 0.18 (0.14–0.22). Predictors of time-to-death ≤90 days (n = 63) were low weight (<3 kg) (HR 7.6, 95% CI:2.8–20.4), preoperative ventilator support (HR 2.7, 95% CI:1.3–5.6), postoperative shunt thrombosis (HR 5.0, 95% CI:2.4–10.4), bleeding (HR 4.5, 95% CI:2.1–9.4) and renal failure (HR 4.1, 95% CI:1.5–10.9). Predictors of time-to-death >90 days (n = 56) were children diagnosed with pulmonary atresia with ventricular septal defect and single ventricle (compared to tetralogy of fallot) (HR 3.2, 95% CI:1.2–7.7 and HR 3.1, 95% CI:1.3–7.6, respectively), shunt size/weight ratio >1.1 vs <0.65 (HR 6.8, 95% CI:1.4–32.6) and longer duration of mechanical ventilator (HR 1.002, 95% CI:1.001–1.004). Shunt size/weight ratio ≥1.0 (vs <1.0) and ≥0.65 (vs <0.65) were predictors for overall time-to-death in neonates and toddlers, respectively (HR 13.1, 95% CI:2.8–61.4 and HR 7.8, 95% CI:1.7–34.8, respectively).ConclusionsPerioperative factors were associated with time-to-death ≤90 days, whereas particular cardiac defect, larger shunt size/weight ratio, and longer mechanical ventilation were associated with time-to-death >90 days after receiving MBTS. Larger shunt size/weight ratio should be reevaluated within 90 days to minimize the risk of shunt over flow.

Reducing revision rates following Pedicle Subtraction Osteotomy surgery: a single-center experience of trends over 7years in patients with Adult Spinal Deformity.

This is a single-center, retrospective study. To assess if implemented changes to clinical practice have reduced mechanical complications following pedicle subtraction osteotomy (PSO) surgery. Adult spinal deformity (ASD) is increasing in prevalence with concurrent increasing demands for surgical treatment. The most extensive technique, PSO, allows for major correction of rigid deformities. However, surgery-related complications have been reported in rates up to 77% and especially mechanical complications occur at unsatisfactory frequencies. We retrospectively included all patients undergoing PSO for ASD between 2010 and 2016. Changes to clinical practice were introduced continuously in the study period, including rigorous patient selection; inter-disciplinary conferences; implant-material; number of surgeons; surgeon experience; and perioperative standardized protocols for pain, neuromonitoring and blood-loss management. Postoperative complications were recorded in the 2-year follow-up period. Competing risk survival analysis was used to assess cumulative incidence of revision surgery due to mechanical complications. The Mann-Kendall test was used for analysis of trends. We included 185 patients undergoing PSO. The level of PSO changed over the study period (P < 0.01) with L3 being the most common level in 2010 compared to L4 in 2016. Both preoperative and surgical corrections of sagittal vertical axis were larger towards the end of the study period. The 2-year revision rate due to mechanical failure steadily declined over the study period from 52% in 2010 to 14% for patients treated in 2016, although without statistically significant trend (P = 0.072). In addition, rates of mechanical complications steadily declined over the study period and significant decreasing trends were observed in time trend analyses of overall complications, major complications and rod breakage. We observed decreased risks of revision surgery due to mechanical complications following PSO in patients with ASD over a 7-year period. We attribute these improvements to advancements in patient selection, surgical planning and techniques, surgeon experience and more standardized perioperative care. III.

Specific causes of recurrence after surgery and mortality in patients with colorectal cancer: A competing risks survival analysis.

Background:In situation where there are more than one cause of occurring the outcome such as recurrence after surgery and death, the assumption of classical survival analyses are not satisfied. To cover this issue, this study aimed at utilizing competing risks survival analysis to assess the specific risk factors of local-distance recurrence and mortality in patients with colorectal cancer (CRC) undergoing surgery.Materials and Methods:In this retrospective cohort study, 254 patients with CRC undergoing resection surgery were studied. Data of the outcome from the available documents in the hospital were gathered. Furthermore, based on pathological report, the diagnosis of CRC was considered. We model the risk factors on the hazard of recurrence and death using competing risk survival in R3.6.1 software.Results:A total of 114 patients had local or distant recurrence (21 local recurrences, 72 distant recurrences, and 21 local and distant recurrence). Pathological stage (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] = 4.28 and 5.37 for stage 3 and 4, respectively), tumor site (AHR = 2.45), recurrence (AHR = 3.92) and age (AHR = 3.15 for age >70) was related to hazard of death. Also based on cause-specific hazard model, pathological stage (AHR = 7.62 for stage 4), age (AHR = 1.46 for age >70), T stage (AHR = 1.8 and 2.7 for T3 and T4, respectively), N stage (AHR = 2.59 for N2), and white blood cells (AHR = 1.95) increased the hazard of recurrence in patients with CRC.Conclusion:This study showed that older age, higher pathological, rectum tumor site and presence of recurrence were independent risk factors for mortality among CRC patients. Also age, higher T/N stage, higher pathological stage and higher values of WBC were significantly related to higher hazard of local/distance recurrence of patients with CRC.

Admission to long-stay residential care and mortality among people with and without dementia living at home but on the boundary of residential care: a competing risks survival analysis

Background Health policy in many countries is underpinned by a commitment to support dependent older people to remain in their own home for as long as possible and practicable. This study explores factors affecting both admission to long-stay residential care (LSRC) and mortality among people with and without dementia who are currently living at home with intensive formal care support. Methods This is a cross-sectional study based on administrative data collected on 429 dependent older people in Ireland, 269 of whom were people with dementia. A cause-specific hazard model was used to investigate the hazard of admission to LSRC, while accounting for mortality as a competing risk and vice versa. Results Admission to LSRC was higher for people with dementia relative to people without and for those receiving lower amounts of informal care. The hazard of mortality was significantly higher for older people aged 85+, whereas it was lower for individuals with a medium level of dependency relative to those with high levels of dependency. The hazard of mortality was also influenced by the amount of informal care provision. Conclusion People with dementia are more likely to be admitted to LSRC than people without. Care for people with dementia needs to be more specialised and personal, and intensity of provision should not be equated to the number of care hours on offer. Informal care provision may help to prevent admission to LSRC. Advanced age, physical dependency and informal care provision affect mortality, raising interesting issues in relation to resource allocation.

Drug-Related Deaths Among Young People Involved in The Criminal Justice System: A Whole-Population Multi-Sectoral Data Linkage Study

IntroductionDrug-related death is substantially higher in formerly incarcerated adults compared to the general population. Despite this, remarkably little is known about the epidemiology of drug-related death among justice-involved adolescents. A richer understanding of drug-related mortality in justice-involved young people is essential for the development of effective, evidence-based interventions for this vulnerable group.&#x0D; Objectives and ApproachIn a whole-population cohort of justice-involved young people in Queensland, Australia, we aimed to: 1) calculate the rate of drug-related death overall, and separately by intent and drug category; and 2) estimate the probability, and identify the predictors of, drug-related death. We probabilistically linked Youth Justice Queensland and National Death Index (NDI) records for every young person who came into contact with the youth justice system in Queensland between 1 January 1993 and 31 December 2014 (N=48,963). The NDI provided death data until 31 December 2017. Crude mortality rates (CMR) were calculatedoverall, separately by intent, and by prescribed versus illicit drug cause. Competing risk survival analysis will be conducted.&#x0D; ResultsOf the 48,963 individuals, 1452 (3%) died by 31 December 2017. Of these, 204 (14%) deaths were due to drugs, yielding a CMR of 31 (95%CI:27-36) per 100,000 person-years. Most drug-related deaths were recorded as intentional (CMR=28; 95%CI:24-33 per 100,000 person-years) and deaths from prescribed medications were more common than illicit drugs (CMR=17; 95%CI:14-20 and CMR=11; 95%CI:9-14 per 100,000 person-years, respectively).&#x0D; Conclusion / ImplicationsRates of drug-related deaths following contact with the youth justice system are disproportionately high and represent a major public health concern. Our findings highlight the importance of initiation of alcohol and other drug (AOD) treatment upon contact with the youth justice system and continuous engagement with community treatment after discharge from the youth justice system. Evidenced-base prevention strategies and efforts to improve the continuity of care are urgently needed.

A Propensity-Matched Cohort Study of Tocilizumab in Patients With Coronavirus Disease 2019.

Observational cohort study of patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019 between March 1, 2020, and April 24, 2020. A propensity-matched (1:1) analysis was used to compare patients who received tocilizumab to controls who did not. Competing risk survival analysis was used to determine the primary outcome of time to mortality, and adjusted log-linear and logistic regression for secondary outcomes. Three hospitals within the NYU Langone Health system in New York. Consecutive adult patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019. Tocilizumab 400-mg IV once in addition to standard of care or standard of care alone. Data from 3,580 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 positive qualifying hospitalized patients were included, of whom 497 (13.9%) were treated with tocilizumab. In the analysis of tocilizumab-treated patients and matched controls, fewer tocilizumab-treated patients died (145/497, 29.2%) than did controls (211/497, 42.4%). In the adjusted competing risk regression model, tocilizumab therapy was associated with improved survival relative to controls (hazard ratio = 0.24, 95% CI = 0.18-0.33, p < 0.001). Tocilizumab-treated patients and controls had similar adjusted time to discharge from hospital (hazard ratio = 0.96, 95% CI = 0.78-1.17, p = 0.67). However, they had longer adjusted ICU length of stay (rate ratio = 3.1, 95% CI = 2.5-3.7, p < 0.001) and a higher adjusted infection rate (odds ratio = 4.18, 95% CI = 2.72-6.52, p < 0.001) than controls. Tocilizumab therapy was associated with significantly improved survival in coronavirus disease 2019 patients. This survival benefit was associated with increased ICU length of stay and increased infection rate, even as more patients in the tocilizumab group were rescued from rapid death. A prospective, randomized, placebo-controlled trial is needed to confirm these findings.

Degree of Portal and Systemic Hemodynamic Alterations Predict Recurrent AKI and Chronic Kidney Disease in Patients With Cirrhosis.

The relevance of hemodynamic derangements on the incidence of recurrent acute kidney injury (AKI) and chronic kidney disease (CKD) in patients with cirrhosis is largely unknown. Consecutive patients with cirrhosis with a complete record of baseline hemodynamics were followed for identifying risk factors for the development of recurrent AKI and CKD by using negative binomial regression and competing risk analysis, respectively. Consecutive patients with cirrhosis (n = 2013, age 50.1 ± 11.8 years, 80% male, Child A:B:C percentage 13.7:52.9:33.4, and mean Child‐Turcotte‐Pugh score 8.6 ± 1.8) were enrolled, 893 (44.3%) of whom received beta‐blockers, with 44.2% responders. Prior AKI was noted in 12.4% at enrollment. At a median follow‐up of 379 (interquartile range: 68‐869) days, AKI developed at a rate of 0.37 episodes per person‐year, and 26% patients developed CKD. A lower mean number of AKI episodes (0.05 ± 0.25 vs. 0.42 ± 0.868; P < 0.001), CKD (subdistribution hazard ratio 0.74 [0.54‐1.02]), and mortality (hazard ratio 0.21 [0.06‐0.73]) were observed in beta‐blocker responders. Albuminuria was an independent risk factor for recurrent AKI, CKD, and mortality (P < 0.05). Lower systemic vascular resistance index predicted hemodynamic response (odds ratio 2.04 [1.29‐3.22]), cumulative AKI episodes (ratio of means 0.10 [0.08‐0.14]), and development of CKD (subdistribution hazard ratio 0.70 [0.58‐0.83]). Higher hepatic venous pressure gradient (≥17 mm Hg) predicted AKI episodes (ratio of means 1.76 [1.32‐2.35]) but not CKD. Conclusion: High portal pressure and severe vasodilatation predispose patients with cirrhosis to repeated AKI episodes and development of CKD. Response to beta‐blockers and therapies targeting the vasodilatory state could prevent frequent AKI and the risk of CKD development. Albuminuria could serve as an early marker of renal dysfunction in patients with cirrhosis.

A population-based competing risk survival analysis of patients with salivary duct carcinoma.

BackgroundSalivary duct carcinoma (SDC) is a rare malignancy with high risk of local recurrence and distant metastases of the salivary gland. This study was designed to summarize the clinical and pathological features and to further evaluate them as potential prognostic factors for SDC in the salivary gland.MethodsClinical data of 266 patients diagnosed with SDC between 2004 and 2015 were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. The prognostic factors affecting overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) were determined by Kaplan-Meier analyses and Cox proportional hazards model. The nomogram was established to predict OS and CSS for SDC. The predictive accuracy of the nomograms was measured by concordance index (C-index).ResultsThe 3- and 5-year OS of SDC patients were 67.41% and 47.86%, while the 3- and 5-year CSS were 84.6% and 60.7%, respectively. The primary site, T stage and M stage were identified as independent prognostic factors for OS by the multivariate analysis, whereas N stage, M stage, the presence of multiple primary carcinomas and the treatment modalities were identified as independent prognostic factors for CSS. The C-index values of the prognostic nomogram based the risk factors affecting SDC OS and CSS were 0.703 (0.646–0.760) and 0.771 (0.691–0.851), respectively.ConclusionsSDC is an aggressive malignancy with a high proportion of advanced stage and lymph node metastases. Patients with increasing age, submandibular gland malignancy, advanced T stage, advanced N stage, advanced M stage, high lymph node ratio (LNR) and the presence of multiple primary carcinomas tend to have unfavorable outcomes. Radiotherapy or chemotherapy improve CSS remarkably. These factors will aid in effective therapeutic treatment modalities for SDC.

Site of metastatic recurrence impacts prognosis in patients with high-grade upper tract urothelial carcinoma

PurposeMetastatic recurrence occurs in over 25% of upper tract urothelial carcinoma patients treated with radical nephroureterectomy. While metastatic recurrence suggests poor prognosis, the impact of the specific site of recurrence on prognosis is not well documented. Materials and methodsWe retrospectively analyzed 188 patients who underwent radical nephroureterectomy for high-grade, node-negative upper tract urothelial carcinoma at our institution from 2003 to 2018 without receiving neoadjuvant or adjuvant chemotherapy. Competing-risks survival analysis was performed to evaluate the cumulative incidence and predictors of metastatic recurrence. The Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test were used to estimate and compare recurrence site-specific survival probabilities following metastatic recurrence. Cox regression analyses were performed to assess site-specific prognoses. ResultsOf the 188 patients, 47 (25%) developed metastatic recurrence over a median follow-up of 30 months (interquartile range: 10.5–58.5 months). The 1- and 2-year cumulative incidences of metastatic recurrence were 13.6% and 23.6%, respectively. On multivariable analysis, lymphovascular invasion was significantly predictive of metastatic recurrence (subhazard ratio: 2.6, P = 0.01). Of the 47 patients who developed recurrence, 38 (80.9%) died over a median follow-up of 10 months (interquartile range: 5–20 months). Metastatic recurrence was most common in the lungs (n= 13, 28%) and at multiple sites (n= 14, 30%). Median time to recurrence was shorter for recurrences at multiple sites (6.5 months) and those in the liver (13 months) and bone (18 months) compared to other sites. Patients who recurred in the liver (hazard ratio: 6.3, P = 0.007), bone (hazard ratio: 4.9, P = 0.02), and multiple sites (hazard ratio: 4.6, P = 0.01) had significantly worse prognosis compared to those who recurred in lymph nodes. Statistical significance persisted after adjusting for treatment with salvage therapy. ConclusionsA significant proportion of high-grade upper tract urothelial carcinoma patients recur systemically after radical nephroureterectomy. Lymphovascular invasion is a predictor of metastatic recurrence and may inform decisions regarding perioperative chemotherapy. Hepatic and osseous recurrences have relatively quicker onset and less favorable prognosis compared to other sites. These findings may benefit future efforts to develop recurrence site-specific treatment plans and highlight the necessity of subsequent endeavors to explore the genetic associations of recurrence in upper tract urothelial carcinoma.

Suicide attempts and death among heroin-involved women seeking methadone treatment in Taiwan

BackgroundThe present study aims to profile the hazard fluctuation of suicide attempts and deaths among heroin-involved women seeking methadone maintenance treatment (MMT) and to investigate sociodemographic and clinical factors predicting the time to have suicidal behaviors. MethodsWe identified a retrospective cohort comprising 2780 women receiving methadone treatment in the period of 2012–2016. Healthcare records were obtained from Taiwan’s National Health Insurance Research Database, and suicide deaths were ascertained from the national death register. Competing risk survival analyses were used to estimate the risk of suicide attempts and deaths within one year and three years of MMT enrollment. ResultsA total of 1.2 % of MMT-treated women ever visited hospital for suicide attempt, and 0.5 % died by confirmed suicide. The risk of treated suicide attempt reached its peak at the end of the 8th month after methadone initiation, whereas the risk of confirmed suicide death was relatively stable during the first one and a half years. A history of treated depressive disorders appears to be the strongest risk predictor for treated suicide attempts (Adjusted Hazard Ratio [aHR] = 3.45; 95 % CI = 1.66–7.19) and confirmed suicide death (aHR = 3.47; 95 % CI = 1.20–10.0). Retaining in methadone treatment may significantly lower the hazard of probable suicide death by 52 %. ConclusionsWomen with heroin use disorders should receive careful attention for suicide risk at intake assessment and over the course of treatment and recovery. Preventive strategies should target unmet clinical and social needs and evaluate gender-specific barriers for treatment engagement.

Excess mortality due to pandrug-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii infections in hospitalized patients

Pandrug-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii (PDRAB) is increasingly being reported as a nosocomial pathogen worldwide, but determining its clinical impact is challenging. To assess the spectrum of excess mortality attributable to PDRAB infection in acute care settings. This four-year cohort study was conducted in a tertiary-care referral hospital in Greece to estimate excess in-hospital mortality due to PDRAB infection by comparing patients infected to those colonized with PDRAB by means of competing risks survival analysis. The study cohort comprised 91 patients (median age: 67 years; 77% men). For most patients, PDRAB was first isolated in the intensive care unit (ICU) (N= 51; 57%) or following ICU discharge (N= 26; 29%). Overall in-hospital mortality was 68% (95% confidence interval (CI): 57.5-77.5%). PDRAB-infected patients (N= 62; 68%) and PDRAB-colonized patients (N= 29; 32%) had similar baseline characteristics, but the absolute excess risk of 30-day mortality in infected patients compared to colonized patients was 34% (95% CI: 14-54%). Multivariable competing risks regression showed that PDRAB infection significantly increased the daily hazard of 30-day in-hospital death (cause-specific hazard ratio (csHR): 3.10; 95% CI: 1.33-7.21) while simultaneously decreasing the daily rate of discharge (csHR: 0.24; 95% CI: 0.08-0.74), thereby leading to longer hospitalization. Stronger effects were observed for bloodstream infections. New effective antimicrobials would be expected to prevent mortality in one of every three patients treated for PDRAB infection and reduce their length of hospitalization. However, available therapeutic options remain extremely limited and emphasis on preventing healthcare-associated transmission of PDRAB is ever more important.

Risk factors for leaving employment due to multiple sclerosis and changes in risk over the past decades: Using competing risk survival analysis

Background: No studies have assessed changes in employment survival in multiple sclerosis (MS) populations over recent decades, including the introduction of disease-modifying therapies (DMTs). Objectives: To evaluate factors associated with leaving employment due to MS; to assess whether the risk of leaving employment has changed over recent decades in Australia, stratified by MS phenotype. Methods: We included 1240 participants who were working before MS diagnosis. Information on employment status, reasons for leaving employment and year of leaving were collected. Data were analysed using competing risk survival analysis. Results: Males, progressive MS, lower education level and older age at diagnosis were associated with a higher sub-distribution hazard of leaving employment. Compared to the period before 2010, the sub-distribution hazard during 2010–2016 for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) was reduced by 43% (sub-distribution hazard ratio (sHR) 0.67, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.50 to 0.90), while no significant reduction was seen for primary-progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS) (sHR 1.25, 95% CI: 0.72 to 2.16) or secondary-progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) (sHR 1.37, 95% CI: 0.84 to 2.25). Conclusion: Males, people with progressive MS and those of lower education level were at higher risk of leaving employment. The differential changed risk of leaving employment between people with different MS phenotype after 2010 coincides with the increased usage of high-efficacy DMTs for RRMS.