Anterior Vertebral Body Tethering (AVBT), a fusionless surgical technique based on growth modulation, aims to correct pediatric scoliosis over time. However, medium-term curvature changes of the non-instrumented distal lumbar curve remains difficult to predict. The objective was to biomechanically analyze the level below the LIV to evaluate whether adding-on or compensatory lumbar curve after AVBT can be predicted by intervertebral disc (ID) wedging and force asymmetry. 33 retrospective scoliotic cases instrumented with AVBT were used to computationally simulate their surgery and 2-year post-operative growth modulation using a finite element model. The cohort was divided into two subgroups according to the lumbar curvature evolution over 2years: (1) correction > 10° (C); (2) maintaining ± 10° (M). The lumbar Cobb angle and residual ID wedging angle under LIV were measured. Simulated pressures and moments at the superior endplate of LIV + 1 were post-processed. These parameters were correlated at 2years postoperatively. On average, the LIV + 1 simulated moment was 538Nmm for subgroup C, 155Nmm for subgroup M with lumbar Cobb angle > 20° and 34Nmm for angle < 20° whereas the ID angle was 1° for C and 0° for M. On average, a positive moment on the LIV + 1 superior growth plate led to correction of the lumbar curvature, whereas a null moment kept it stable, and a parallel immediate postoperative ID under LIV contributed to its correction or preservation. Nevertheless, the significant interindividual variability suggested that other parameters are involved in the distal non-instrumented curvature evolution. IV.
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