Community Earth System Model Version Research Articles

Tropical Precipitation Woes in the Community Earth System Model Version 2

AbstractThe newly developed paleo‐climate calibrated Community Earth System Model, version 2 (pCESM2) simulates a more realistic global temperature response to external forcing compared to the standard CESM2. Here we show that the code modifications in pCESM2 result in increased atmospheric convection and a northward shift of the Atlantic and eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zones. These changes are exacerbated under Last Glacial Maximum forcing, resulting in tropical precipitation changes that are inconsistent with both proxy data evidence and simulations with other contemporary models. Similar model‐data disagreements are also present in the standard CESM2. Thus, more work is needed to improve the simulated Last Glacial Maximum hydroclimate response in CESM2. We further suggest that well‐constrained paleo climates should be given a larger emphasis in model development more broadly, as these climates can help identify issues with model parameterizations under altered forcing and thus improve the fidelity of simulations of past, present, and future climates.

Antarctic Ice Sheet Freshwater Discharge Drives Substantial Southern Ocean Changes Over the 21st Century

AbstractMultidecadal satellite observations indicate that the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) is losing mass at an accelerating rate, which has the potential to impact many aspects of the climate system. While previous studies demonstrated the importance of AIS freshwater (FW) discharge for regional and global climate processes using climate model experiments, many have applied unrealistic FW forcings. Here, we explore potential Southern Ocean (SO) impacts of realistic AIS mass loss over the 21st century in the Community Earth System Model version 2 by applying observation‐based historical and ice sheet model‐based future AIS FW forcing. The added FW reduces wintertime deep convective area by 72% while retaining 83% more sea ice. Congruent with other studies, we find the increased FW discharge extensively impacts local and remote SO surface and subsurface temperature and stratification. These results demonstrate the necessity of accounting for AIS mass loss in global climate models for projecting future climate.

Impacts of coal use phase-out in China on the atmospheric environment: (1) emissions, surface concentrations and exceedance of air quality standards

Coal combustion is one of the main sources of greenhouse gases and various air pollutants. Gradually reducing the use of coal is an important strategy for controlling air pollution and achieving the goal of “carbon neutrality” in China. This study originally extracts the proportion of coal sources from emission inventories of key pollutants from different sectors and quantifies the emissions from coal sources in China during 2015. Additionally, it evaluates the peak potential impacts on the concentrations of key pollutants and overall air quality in China resulting from ceasing coal usage with the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). The results show that the emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitric oxide (NO) and black carbon (BC) from coal sources account for more than half of the total anthropogenic emissions in China. After the phase-out of coal use, the concentrations of SO2, nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon monoxide (CO) and 2.5-μm Particulate Matter (PM2.5) could markedly decrease by approximately 30∼50%, accounting for 50–80% of anthropogenic sources and even more than 80% in individual provinces. The exceedance of SO2, nitrogen dioxide (NO2), CO and PM2.5 under the air quality standard of China is also greatly reduced. Only the concentration and exceedance of ozone (O3) increase significantly in certain parts of China and in some seasons. Sensitivity analysis also shows that most air pollutants decrease linearly or nearly linearly with the increase of coal-ban proportion. Therefore, this study suggests that the strength of coal removal needs to be gradually enhanced. And the emissions from other kinds of fossil fuels should also be controlled during the process of ending coal use to reduce the pollution levels of CO, Volatile Organic Compounds (VOCs), O3 and organic aerosols. This research thoroughly assesses the ultimate limit of contributions of coal usage to the air pollution of China, which could serve as a valuable reference for future policy formulation.

A transient coupled general circulation model (CGCM) simulation of the past 3 million years

Abstract. Driven primarily by variations in the earth's axis wobble, tilt, and orbit eccentricity, our planet experienced massive glacial/interglacial reorganizations of climate and atmospheric CO2 concentrations during the Pleistocene (2.58 million years ago (Ma)–11.7 thousand years ago (ka)). Even after decades of research, the underlying climate response mechanisms to these astronomical forcings have not been fully understood. To further quantify the sensitivity of the earth system to orbital-scale forcings, we conducted an unprecedented quasi-continuous coupled general climate model simulation with the Community Earth System Model version 1.2 (CESM1.2, ∼3.75∘ horizontal resolution), which covers the climatic history of the past 3 million years (3 Myr). In addition to the astronomical insolation changes, CESM1.2 is forced by estimates of CO2 and ice-sheet topography which were obtained from a simulation previously conducted with the CLIMBER-2 earth system model of intermediate complexity. Our 3 Ma simulation consists of 42 transient interglacial/glacial simulation chunks, which were partly run in parallel to save computing time. The chunks were subsequently merged, accounting for spin-up and overlap effects to yield a quasi-continuous trajectory. The computer model data were compared against a plethora of paleo-proxy data and large-scale climate reconstructions. For the period from the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT, ∼1 Ma) to the late Pleistocene we find good agreement between simulated and reconstructed temperatures in terms of phase and amplitude (−5.7 ∘C temperature difference between Last Glacial Maximum and Holocene). For the earlier part (3–1 Ma), differences in orbital-scale variability occur between model simulation and the reconstructions, indicating potential biases in the applied CO2 forcing. Our model-proxy data comparison also extends to the westerlies, which show unexpectedly large variance on precessional timescales, and hydroclimate variables in major monsoon regions. Eccentricity-modulated precessional variability is also responsible for the simulated changes in the amplitude and flavors of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. We further identify two major modes of planetary energy transport, which played a crucial role in Pleistocene climate variability: the first obliquity and CO2-driven mode is linked to changes in the Equator-to-pole temperature gradient; the second mode regulates the interhemispheric heat imbalance in unison with the eccentricity-modulated precession cycle. During the MPT, a pronounced qualitative shift occurs in the second mode of planetary energy transport: the post-MPT eccentricity-paced variability synchronizes with the CO2 forced signal. This synchronized feature is coherent with changes in global atmospheric and ocean circulations, which might contribute to an intensification of glacial cycle feedbacks and amplitudes. Comparison of this paleo-simulation with greenhouse warming simulations reveals that for an RCP8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenario, the projected global mean surface temperature changes over the next 7 decades would be comparable to the late Pleistocene glacial-interglacial range; but the anthropogenic warming rate will exceed any previous ones by a factor of ∼100.

Investigating Future Arctic Sea Ice Loss and Near‐Surface Wind Speed Changes Related to Surface Roughness Using the Community Earth System Model

AbstractThe Arctic is undergoing a pronounced and rapid transformation in response to changing greenhouse gasses, including reduction in sea ice extent and thickness. There are also projected increases in near‐surface Arctic wind. This study addresses how the winds trends may be driven by changing surface roughness and/or stability in different Arctic regions and seasons, something that has not yet been thoroughly investigated. We analyze 50 experiments from the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) Large Ensemble and five experiments using CESM2 with an artificially decreased sea ice roughness to match that of the open ocean. We find that with a smoother surface there are higher mean wind speeds and slower mean ice speeds in the autumn, winter, and spring. The artificially reduced surface roughness also strongly impacts the wind speed trends in autumn and winter, and we find that atmospheric stability changes are also important contributors to driving wind trends in both experiments. In contrast to the clear impacts on winds, the sea ice mean state and trends are statistically indistinguishable, suggesting that near‐surface winds are not major drivers of Arctic sea ice loss. Two major results of this work are: (a) the near‐surface wind trends are driven by changes in both surface roughness and near‐surface atmospheric stability that are themselves changing from sea ice loss, and (b) the sea ice mean state and trends are driven by the overall warming trend due to increasing greenhouse gas emissions and not significantly impacted by coupled feedbacks with the surface winds.

Climate responses in China to domestic and foreign aerosol changes due to clean air actions during 2013–2019

In recent years, to improve air quality, significant efforts have been made to reduce regional aerosols including China, Europe and North America, which have potential impacts on climate. In this study, fast and slow climate responses in China to changes in domestic and foreign anthropogenic emissions of aerosols and precursors from 2013 to 2019 are investigated using the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1). Aerosol emissions changes, especially reductions in China, North America and Europe, during 2013–2019 resulted in surface air temperature increases across the Northern Hemisphere. Global aerosol changes induce a regional warming of 0.2 °C in China, equally contributed by domestic and foreign emissions changes. China’s domestic emission reductions lead to a regional average temperature rise of 0.1°C, primarily driven by rapid atmospheric adjustments over eastern China. Foreign aerosol changes, particularly reductions in North America and Europe, also contributed to a 0.1°C warming in China through slow oceanic processes. This warming in China induced by foreign aerosol changes is due to a teleconnection between the aerosol-induced anomalous regional warming in Eastern U.S.-North Atlantic Ocean-Europe and the downstream East Asian climate through anomalous wave trains propagation. The comparable influence of domestic and foreign aerosol changes on climate in China underscores the importance of international collaboration in climate mitigation endeavors.

Statistical bias correction for CESM-simulated PM2.5

Global climate models are good tools for simulating transnational and interregional transport of pollutants such as PM2.5, which is of growing interest and importance, for example in human health and socio-economic development studies. However, reliable estimates of PM2.5 are very challenging for such relatively coarse and simplified models, and even state of the art models fare poorly in matching satellite observations in many highly polluted, and some almost pristine environments. This work describes a novel bias correction method based on multiple linear regression (MLR) modelling. The target data we aim for is global satellite-based data and the PM2.5 precursors simulated by the Community Earth System Model Version 1.2.2. The statistical method greatly reduced the simulation biases of PM2.5 worldwide compared with satellite-derived PM2.5, especially in highly-polluted regions, such as northern China, the Indo-Gangetic plains, the Democratic Republic of Congo and northwestern Brazil. Root-mean-square differences (RMSD) between continental-averaged observations and simulations are reduced from 75% to 9%. The ensemble RMSD for 13 countries exemplified here is reduced from 116% to 3%. One virtue of the MLR method is that details of the classification of internal mixed modes of each aerosol and their spatial differences are not required. The MLR coefficients are designed to be highly aerosol- and country-dependent, so they provide new perspectives of relative importance of each aerosol to local PM2.5 and offer clues on observational and simulation biases. The bias-correction method is easily applied for air pollutants simulated by global climate models due to its low computational cost.

Separating internal and forced contributions to near term SST predictability in the CESM2-LE

An open question in the study of climate prediction is whether internal variability will continue to contribute to prediction skill in the coming decades, or whether predictable signals will be overwhelmed by rising temperatures driven by anthropogenic forcing. We design a neural network that is interpretable such that its predictions can be decomposed to examine the relative contributions of external forcing and internal variability to future regional sea surface temperature (SST) trend predictions in the near-term climate (2020–2050). We show that there is additional prediction skill to be garnered from internal variability in the Community Earth System Model version 2 Large Ensemble, even in a relatively high forcing future scenario. This predictability is especially apparent in the North Atlantic, North Pacific and Tropical Pacific Oceans as well as in the Southern Ocean. We further investigate how prediction skill covaries across the ocean and find three regions with distinct coherent prediction skill driven by internal variability. SST trend predictability is found to be associated with consistent patterns of decadal variability for the grid points within each region.

Isolating the effect of biomass burning aerosol emissions on 20th century hydroclimate in South America and Southeast Asia

Biomass burning is a significant source of aerosol emissions in some regions and has a considerable impact on regional climate. Earth system model simulations indicate that increased biomass burning aerosol emissions contributed to statistically significant decreases in tropical precipitation over the 20th century. In this study, we use the Community Earth System Model version 1 Large Ensemble (CESM1-LENS) experiment to evaluate the mechanisms by which biomass burning aerosol contributed to decreased tropical precipitation, with a focus on South America and Southeast Asia. We analyze the all-but-one forcing simulations in which biomass burning aerosol emissions are held constant while other forcings (e.g., greenhouse gas concentrations) vary throughout the 20th century. This allows us to isolate the influence of biomass burning aerosol on processes that contribute to decreasing precipitation, including cloud microphysics, the radiative effects of absorbing aerosol particles, and alterations in regional circulation. We also show that the 20th century reduction in precipitation identified in the CESM1-LENS historical and biomass burning experiments is consistent across Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models with interactive aerosol schemes and the CESM2 single-forcing experiment. Our results demonstrate that higher concentrations of biomass burning aerosol increases the quantity of cloud condensation nuclei and cloud droplets, limiting cloud droplet size and precipitation formation. Additionally, absorbing aerosols (e.g., black carbon) contribute to a warmer cloud layer, which promotes cloud evaporation, increases atmospheric stability, and alters regional circulation patterns. Corresponding convectively coupled circulation responses, particularly over the tropical Andes, contribute to further reducing the flow of moisture and moisture convergence over tropical land. These results elucidate the processes that affect the water cycle in regions prone to biomass burning and inform our understanding of how future changes in aerosol emissions may impact tropical precipitation over the 21st century.

Projections of winter polynyas and their biophysical impacts in the Ross Sea Antarctica

This study investigates winter polynyas in the southern Ross Sea, Antarctica where several polynyas are known to form. Coastal polynyas are areas of lower sea ice concentration and/or thickness along the coast that are otherwise surrounded by more extensive, thicker sea ice pack. Polynyas are also locations where organisms can exploit both the ice substrate and pelagic resources. Using a self organizing map algorithm, we identify polynya events in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 Large Ensemble (CESM2-LE). The neural network algorithm is able to identify polynya events without imposing an ice concentration or thickness threshold, as is often done when identifying polynyas. The CESM2-LE produces a wintertime polynya feature comparable in size and location to the Ross Sea polynya, and during polynya events there are large turbulent heat fluxes and export of sea ice from the Ross Sea. In the CESM2-LE polynya event frequency is projected to decrease sharply in the later twentyfirst century, leading to increasing sea ice concentrations and thicknesses in the region. The drivers of the polynya frequency decline are likely both large scale circulation changes and local atmosphere and ocean feedbacks. If declines in wintertime polynya frequency over the twentyfirst century do occur they may impact Antarctic Bottom Water formation and local net primary productivity. Thus, better understanding potential local and unexpected sea ice changes in the Ross Sea is important for both assessing climate system impacts and ecological impacts on the Ross Sea ecosystem, which is currently protected by an internationally recognized marine protected area.

Uncertainty in surface wind speed projections over the Iberian Peninsula: CMIP6 GCMs versus a WRF-RCM.

This study assessed the projected near-surface wind speed (SWS) changes and variability over the Iberian Peninsula for the 21st century. Here, we compared Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 global climate models (GCMs) with a higher spatial resolution regional climate model (RCM; ∼20km), known as WRF-CESM2, which was created by a dynamic downscaling of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Our analysis found that the GCMs tended to overestimate observed SWS for 1985-2014, while the higher spatial resolution of the WRF-CESM2 did not improve the accuracy and underestimated the SWS magnitude. GCMs project a decline of SWS under highshared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) greenhouse concentrations, such as SSP370 and SSP585, while an interdecadal oscillation appears in SSP126 and SSP245 for the end of the century. The WRF-CESM2 under SSP585 predicts the opposite increasing SWS. Our results suggest that 21st-century projections of SWS are uncertain even for regionalized products and should be taken with caution.

Assessing decadal variability of subseasonal forecasts of opportunity using explainable AI

Identifying predictable states of the climate system allows for enhanced prediction skill on the generally low-skill subseasonal timescale via forecasts with higher confidence and accuracy, known as forecasts of opportunity. This study takes a neural network approach to explore decadal variability of subseasonal predictability, particularly during forecasts of opportunity. Specifically, this work quantifies subseasonal prediction skill provided by the tropics within the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) Large Ensemble and assesses how this skill evolves on decadal timescales. Utilizing the networks’ confidence and explainable artificial intelligence, physically meaningful sources of predictability associated with periods of enhanced skill are identified. Using these networks, we find that tropically-driven subseasonal predictability varies on decadal timescales during forecasts of opportunity. Further, we investigate the drivers of the low frequency modulation of the tropical-extratropical teleconnection and discuss the implications. Analysis is extended to ECMWF Reanalysis v5 data, revealing that the relationships learned within the CESM2-Large Ensemble holds in modern reanalysis data. These results indicate that the neural networks are capable of identifying predictable decadal states of the climate system within CESM2 that are useful for making confident, accurate subseasonal precipitation predictions in the real world.

Climate Base State Influences on South Asian Monsoon Processes Derived From Analyses of E3SMv2 and CESM2

AbstractThe effects of differences in climate base state are related to processes associated with the present‐day South Asian monsoon simulations in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) and the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). Though tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean base state sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are over 1°C cooler in E3SMv2 compared to CESM2, and there is an overall reduction of Indian sector precipitation, the pattern of South Asian monsoon precipitation is similar in the two models. Monsoon‐ENSO teleconnections, dynamically linked by the large‐scale east‐west atmospheric circulation, are reduced in E3SMv2 compared to CESM2. In E3SMv2, this is related to cooler tropical SSTs and ENSO amplitude that is less than half that in CESM2. Comparison to a tropical Pacific pacemaker experiment shows, to a first order, that the base state SSTs and ENSO amplitude contribute roughly equally to lower amplitude monsoon‐ENSO teleconnections in E3SMv2.

Evaluating the impact of enhanced horizontal resolution over the Antarctic domain using a variable-resolution Earth system model

Abstract. Earth system models are essential tools for understanding the impacts of a warming world, particularly on the contribution of polar ice sheets to sea level change. However, current models lack full coupling of the ice sheets to the ocean and are typically run at a coarse resolution (1∘ grid spacing or coarser). Coarse spatial resolution is particularly a problem over Antarctica, where sub-grid-scale orography is well-known to influence precipitation fields, and glacier models require high-resolution atmospheric inputs. This resolution limitation has been partially addressed by regional climate models (RCMs), which must be forced at their lateral and ocean surface boundaries by (usually coarser) global atmospheric datasets, However, RCMs fail to capture the two-way coupling between the regional domain and the global climate system. Conversely, running high-spatial-resolution models globally is computationally expensive and can produce vast amounts of data. Alternatively, variable-resolution grids can retain the benefits of high resolution over a specified domain without the computational costs of running at a high resolution globally. Here we evaluate a historical simulation of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) implementing the spectral element (SE) numerical dynamical core (VR-CESM2) with an enhanced-horizontal-resolution (0.25∘) grid over the Antarctic Ice Sheet and the surrounding Southern Ocean; the rest of the global domain is on the standard 1∘ grid. We compare it to 1∘ model runs of CESM2 using both the SE dynamical core and the standard finite-volume (FV) dynamical core, both with identical physics and forcing, including prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice concentrations from observations. Our evaluation reveals both improvements and degradations in VR-CESM2 performance relative to the 1∘ CESM2. Surface mass balance estimates are slightly higher but within 1 standard deviation of the ensemble mean, except for over the Antarctic Peninsula, which is impacted by better-resolved surface topography. Temperature and wind estimates are improved over both the near surface and aloft, although the overall correction of a cold bias (within the 1∘ CESM2 runs) has resulted in temperatures which are too high over the interior of the ice sheet. The major degradations include the enhancement of surface melt as well as excessive cloud liquid water over the ocean, with resultant impacts on the surface radiation budget. Despite these changes, VR-CESM2 is a valuable tool for the analysis of precipitation and surface mass balance and thus constraining estimates of sea level rise associated with the Antarctic Ice Sheet.

The CESM2 Single-Forcing Large Ensemble and Comparison to CESM1: Implications for Experimental Design

Abstract Single-forcing large ensembles are a relatively new tool for quantifying the contributions of different anthropogenic and natural forcings to the historical and future projected evolution of the climate system. This study introduces a new single-forcing large ensemble with the Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2), which can be used to separate the influences of greenhouse gases, anthropogenic aerosols, biomass burning aerosols, and all remaining forcings on the evolution of the Earth system from 1850 to 2050. Here, the forced responses of global near-surface temperature and associated drivers are examined in CESM2 and compared with those in a single-forcing large ensemble with CESM2’s predecessor, CESM1. The experimental design, the imposed forcing, and the model physics all differ between the CESM1 and CESM2 ensembles. In CESM1, an “all-but-one” approach was used whereby everything except the forcing of interest is time evolving, while in CESM2 an “only” approach is used, whereby only the forcing of interest is time evolving. This experimental design choice is shown to matter considerably for anthropogenic aerosol-forced change in CESM2, due to state dependence of cryospheric albedo feedbacks and nonlinearity in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) response to forcing. This impact of experimental design is, however, strongly dependent on the model physics and/or the imposed forcing, as the same sensitivity to experimental design is not found in CESM1, which appears to be an inherently less nonlinear model in both its AMOC behavior and cryospheric feedbacks.

Atmospheric–Oceanic Processes over the Pacific Involved in the Effects of the Indian Summer Monsoon on ENSO

Abstract This study investigates the physical mechanisms responsible for the impacts of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) on the evolution of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with a focus on understanding the monsoon-induced Pacific air–sea interactive processes. An observational analysis displays that a weaker-than-normal ISM can strengthen an ongoing El Niño event and weaken a La Niña event, and conversely for a stronger-than-normal ISM. A 1000-yr output from the Community Earth System Model version 2 is capable of reproducing this observed feature and is therefore used to explore the responsible ocean–atmosphere interactive processes involved. Results show that a weak ISM can cause a cyclonic circulation over the western North Pacific via stimulating atmospheric cold Kelvin waves, and conversely for a strong ISM. The westerly (easterly) wind anomalies on the southern flank of the anomalous cyclone (anticyclone) generate eastward (westward) current anomalies in the mixed layer and thus induce anomalous warm (cold) zonal advection. Furthermore, the wind anomalies excite oceanic downwelling (upwelling) Kelvin waves, which deepen (shoal) the thermocline in the equatorial eastern Pacific and result in anomalous warm (cold) vertical advection. A quantitative mixed layer heat budget analysis demonstrates that the influence of the monsoon-induced Pacific wind anomalies on ENSO is mainly achieved by changing the zonal advective feedback and thermocline feedback. This result is confirmed by model sensitivity experiments in which additional monsoon heating or cooling anomalies are imposed over the Indian region during the developing summer of an ENSO event. Significance Statement While previous studies have reported that the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) could influence the evolution of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), this study is aimed at understanding the physical mechanisms for the Pacific air–sea interactive processes induced by the monsoon and their impact on ENSO. It is found that a weak and strong ISM can respectively induce an anomalous cyclonic and anticyclonic circulation over the western North Pacific. The wind anomalies on the southern flank of the anomalous circulation mainly change the zonal advective feedback and the thermocline feedback to affect ENSO development. This study provides a detailed physical explanation of how the ISM influences ENSO evolution.

The Idealized Aquaplanet Maritime Continent Barrier Effect on the MJO Predictability

Abstract Studies have indicated exaggerated Maritime Continent (MC) barrier effect in simulations of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), a dominant source of subseasonal predictability in the tropics. This issue has plagued the modeling and operational forecasting communities for decades, while the sensitivity of MC barrier on MJO predictability has not been addressed quantitatively. In this study, perfect-model ensemble forecasts are conducted with an aquaplanet configuration of the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) in which both basic state and tropical modes of variability are reasonably simulated with a warm pool–like SST distribution. When water-covered terrain mimicking MC landmasses is added to the warm pool–like SST framework, the eastward propagation of the MJO is disturbed by the prescribed MC aqua-mountain. The MJO predictability estimate with the perfect-model experiment is about 6 weeks but reduces to about 4 weeks when the MJO is impeded by the MC aqua-mountain. Given that the recent operational forecasts show an average of 3–4 weeks of MJO prediction skill, we can conclude that improving the MJO propagation crossing the MC could improve the MJO skill to 5–6 weeks, close to the potential predictability found in this study (6 weeks). Therefore, more effort toward understanding and improving the MJO propagation is needed to enhance the MJO and MJO-related forecasts to improve the subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction.

Rainbows and climate change: a tutorial on climate model diagnostics and parameterization

Abstract. Earth system models (ESMs) must represent processes below the grid scale of a model using representations (parameterizations) of physical and chemical processes. As a tutorial exercise to understand diagnostics and parameterization, this work presents a representation of rainbows for an ESM: the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). Using the “state” of the model, basic physical laws, and some assumptions, we generate a representation of this unique optical phenomenon as a diagnostic output. Rainbow occurrence and its possible changes are related to cloud occurrence and rain formation, which are critical uncertainties for climate change prediction. The work highlights issues which are typical of many diagnostic parameterizations such as assumptions, uncertain parameters, and the difficulty of evaluation against uncertain observations. Results agree qualitatively with limited available global “observations” of rainbows. Rainbows are seen in expected locations in the subtropics over the ocean where broken clouds and frequent precipitation occur. The diurnal peak is in the morning over ocean and in the evening over land. The representation of rainbows is found to be quantitatively sensitive to the assumed amount of cloudiness and the amount of stratiform rain. Rainbows are projected to have decreased, mostly in the Northern Hemisphere, due to aerosol pollution effects increasing cloud coverage since 1850. In the future, continued climate change is projected to decrease cloud cover, associated with a positive cloud feedback. As a result the rainbow diagnostic projects that rainbows will increase in the future, with the largest changes at midlatitudes. The diagnostic may be useful for assessing cloud parameterizations and is an exercise in how to build and test parameterizations of atmospheric phenomena.

Climate, Variability, and Climate Sensitivity of “Middle Atmosphere” Chemistry Configurations of the Community Earth System Model Version 2, Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Version 6 (CESM2(WACCM6))

AbstractSimulating whole atmosphere dynamics, chemistry, and physics is computationally expensive. It can require high vertical resolution throughout the middle and upper atmosphere, as well as a comprehensive chemistry and aerosol scheme coupled to radiation physics. An unintentional outcome of the development of one of the most sophisticated and hence computationally expensive model configurations is that it often excludes a broad community of users with limited computational resources. Here, we analyze two configurations of the Community Earth System Model Version 2, Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model Version 6 (CESM2(WACCM6)) with simplified “middle atmosphere” chemistry at nominal 1 and 2° horizontal resolutions. Using observations, a reanalysis, and direct model comparisons, we find that these configurations generally reproduce the climate, variability, and climate sensitivity of the 1° nominal horizontal resolution configuration with comprehensive chemistry. While the background stratospheric aerosol optical depth is elevated in the middle atmosphere configurations as compared to the comprehensive chemistry configuration, it is comparable among all configurations during volcanic eruptions. For any purposes other than those needing an accurate representation of tropospheric organic chemistry and secondary organic aerosols, these simplified chemistry configurations deliver reliable simulations of the whole atmosphere that require 35% and 86% fewer computational resources at nominal 1 and 2° horizontal resolution, respectively.

How does tropospheric VOC chemistry affect climate? An investigation of preindustrial control simulations using the Community Earth System Model version 2

Abstract. Because of their computational expense, models with comprehensive tropospheric chemistry have typically been run with prescribed sea surface temperatures (SSTs), which greatly limits the model's ability to generate climate responses to atmospheric forcings. In the past few years, however, several fully coupled models with comprehensive tropospheric chemistry have been developed. For example, the Community Earth System Model version 2 with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model version 6 as its atmospheric component (CESM2-WACCM6) has implemented fully interactive tropospheric chemistry with 231 chemical species as well as a fully coupled ocean. Earlier versions of this model used a “SOAG scheme” that prescribes bulk emission of a single gas-phase precursor to secondary organic aerosols (SOAs). In contrast, CESM2-WACCM6 simulates the chemistry of a comprehensive range of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) responsible for tropospheric aerosol formation. Such a model offers an opportunity to examine the full climate effects of comprehensive tropospheric chemistry. To examine these effects, 211-year preindustrial control simulations were performed using the following two configurations: (1) the standard CESM2-WACCM6 configuration with interactive chemistry over the whole atmosphere (WACtl) and (2) a simplified CESM2-WACCM6 configuration using a SOAG scheme in the troposphere and interactive chemistry in the middle atmosphere (MACtl). The middle-atmospheric chemistry is the same in both configurations, and only the tropospheric chemistry differs. Differences between WACtl and MACtl were analyzed for various fields. Regional differences in annual mean surface temperature range from −4 to 4 K. In the zonal average, there is widespread tropospheric cooling in the extratropics. Longwave forcers are shown to be unlikely drivers of this cooling, and possible shortwave forcers are explored. Evidence is presented that the climate response is primarily due to increased sulfate aerosols in the extratropical stratosphere and cloud feedbacks. As found in earlier studies, enhanced internal mixing with SOAs in WACtl causes widespread reductions of black carbon (BC) and primary organic matter (POM), which are not directly influenced by VOC chemistry. These BC and POM reductions might further contribute to cooling in the Northern Hemisphere. The extratropical tropospheric cooling results in dynamical changes, such as equatorward shifts of the midlatitude jets, which in turn drive extratropical changes in clouds and precipitation. In the tropical upper troposphere, cloud-driven increases in shortwave heating appear to weaken and expand the Hadley circulation, which in turn drives changes in tropical and subtropical precipitation. Some of the climate responses are quantitatively large enough in some regions to motivate future investigations of VOC chemistry's possible influences on anthropogenic climate change.