Community-based Prospective Cohort Study Research Articles

Ovarian aging: an ongoing prospective community-based cohort study in middle-aged Chinese women

Purpose: This study described the design and development of a cohort study established to investigate the ovarian aging process and its impact on women’s health.Methods: A community-based prospective cohort study of middle-aged Chinese women was initiated in 2005 and is ongoing. Sociodemographic characteristics, menstrual calendars, and medical histories were recorded at baseline and at annual follow-ups. Physical measures, blood sampling, bone status assessment, and body composition evaluation are likewise performed annually.Results: A total of 954 women with a median age of 47 years were enrolled. At baseline, 44.7% were reproductive, 25.4% were in menopause transition and 30.0% were postmenopausal. Among them, 37.0% were overweight, 16.9% were obese, and 17.7% had hypertension. Nearly half of all subjects have been followed up five or more times. The median duration of menopausal transition was 17.5 months. The median natural menopausal age ascertained by follow-up interviews was 52.0 years, which is significantly older than the median recalled age of 50.0 years.Conclusions: This is the first population-based prospective cohort study exploring the ovarian aging process in Chinese women. A large sample size and long follow-up duration were achieved. Detailed analysis of data obtained from this cohort will be provided in future reports.

Identical anthropometric characteristics of impaired fasting glucose combined with impaired glucose tolerance and newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes: anthropometric indicators to predict hyperglycaemia in a community-based prospective cohort study in southwest China

ObjectivesTo assess the anthropometric characteristics of normoglycaemic individuals who subsequently developed hyperglycaemia, and to evaluate the validity of these measures to predict prediabetes and diabetes.DesignA community-based prospective cohort study.ParticipantsIn total,...

Microscopic hematuria is a risk factor of incident chronic kidney disease in the Korean general population: a community-based prospective cohort study.

Although asymptomatic microscopic hematuria (MH) is a common finding in clinical practice, its long-term outcome remains unknown. This study evaluated the clinical implication of MH in the general population using a large-scale long-term longitudinal cohort database. This study included 8719 participants from the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study between 2001 and 2014. MH was defined as ≥5 red blood cells per high-power field in random urinalysis without evidence of pyuria. The primary study outcome measure was incident chronic kidney disease (CKD), defined as estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 ml min-1⋅1.73⋅m-2. During a median follow-up of 11.7 years, CKD occurred in 677 (7.8%) subjects. In Cox regression after adjustment for multiple confounders, subjects with MH had a significantly higher risk of incident CKD than those without [hazard ratio (HR) 1.45, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.12-1.87; P = 0.005]. Isolated MH without proteinuria was also a risk factor of incident CKD (HR 1.37, 95% CI 1.04-1.79; P = 0.023) and the risk was further increased in MH with concomitant proteinuria (HR 5.41, 95% CI 2.54-11.49; P < 0.001). In propensity score matching analysis after excluding subjects with proteinuria, multi-variable stratified Cox regression analysis revealed that subjects with isolated MH had a significantly higher risk of incident CKD than those without (HR 1.83, 95% CI 1.14-2.94; P = 0.012). The presence of MH is associated with an increased risk of incident CKD in the general population. Therefore, attentive follow-up is warranted in persons with MH for early detection of CKD.

The Effects of Combinations of Cognitive Impairment and Pre-frailty on Adverse Outcomes from a Prospective Community-Based Cohort Study of Older Chinese People.

To examine how various combinations of cognitive impairment (overall performance and specific domains) and pre-frailty predict risks of adverse outcomes; and to determine whether cognitive frailty may be defined as the combination of cognitive impairment and the presence of pre-frailty. Community-based cohort study. Chinese men and women (n = 3,491) aged 65+ without dementia, Parkinson's disease and/or frailty at baseline. Frailty was characterized using the Cardiovascular Health Study criteria. Overall cognitive impairment was defined by a Cantonese Mini-Mental Status Examination (CMMSE) total score (<21/24/27, depending on participants' educational levels); delayed recall impairment by a CMMSE delayed recall score (<3); and language and praxis impairment by a CMMSE language and praxis score (<9). Adverse outcomes included poor quality of life, physical limitation, increased cumulative hospital stay, and mortality. Compared to those who were robust and cognitively intact at baseline, those who were robust but cognitively impaired were more likely to develop pre-frailty/frailty after 4 years (P < 0.01). Compared to participants who were robust and cognitively intact at baseline, those who were pre-frail and with overall cognitive impairment had lower grip strength (P < 0.05), lower gait speed (P < 0.01), poorer lower limb strength (P < 0.01), and poorer delayed recall at year 4 [OR, 1.6; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.2-2.3]. They were also associated with increased risks of poor quality of life (OR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.1-2.2) and incident physical limitation at year 4 (OR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.3-2.5), increased cumulative hospital stay at year 7 (OR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.1-2.1), and mortality over an average of 12 years (OR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.0-2.1) after adjustment for covariates. There was no significant difference in risks of adverse outcomes between participants who were pre-frail, with/without cognitive impairment at baseline. Similar results were obtained with delayed recall and language and praxis impairments. Robust and cognitively impaired participants had higher risks of becoming pre-frail/frail over 4 years compared with those with normal cognition. Cognitive impairment characterized by the CMMSE overall score or its individual domain score improved the predictive power of pre-frailty for poor quality of life, incident physical limitation, increased cumulative hospital stay, and mortality. Our findings support to the concept that cognitive frailty may be defined as the occurrence of both cognitive impairment and pre-frailty, not necessarily progressing to dementia.

Long-Term Cognitive Decline After Newly Diagnosed Heart Failure: Longitudinal Analysis in the CHS (Cardiovascular Health Study).

Heart failure (HF) is associated with cognitive impairment. However, we know little about the time course of cognitive change after HF diagnosis, the importance of comorbid atrial fibrillation, or the role of ejection fraction. We sought to determine the associations of incident HF with rates of cognitive decline and whether these differed by atrial fibrillation status or reduced versus preserved ejection fraction. Participants were 4864 men and women aged ≥65 years without a history of HF and free of clinical stroke in the CHS (Cardiovascular Health Study)-a community-based prospective cohort study in the United States, with cognition assessed annually from 1989/1990 through 1998/1999. We identified 496 participants with incident HF by review of hospital discharge summaries and Medicare claims data, with adjudication according to standard criteria. Global cognitive ability was measured by the Modified Mini-Mental State Examination. In adjusted models, 5-year decline in model-predicted mean Modified Mini-Mental State Examination score was 10.2 points (95% confidence interval, 8.6-11.8) after incident HF diagnosed at 80 years of age, compared with a mean 5-year decline of 5.8 points (95% confidence interval, 5.3-6.2) from 80 to 85 years of age without HF. The association was stronger at older ages than at younger ages, did not vary significantly in the presence versus absence of atrial fibrillation (P=0.084), and did not vary significantly by reduced versus preserved ejection fraction (P=0.734). Decline in global cognitive ability tends to be faster after HF diagnosis than without HF. Clinical and public health implications of this finding warrant further attention.

Study protocol: rationale and design of the community-based prospective cohort study of kidney function and diabetes in rural New Mexico, the COMPASS study

BackgroundRural areas in the state of New Mexico have been the “ground-zero” for the epidemic of diabetic Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) in the United States. However, there is limited research about risk factors of diabetic CKD in this area and scarce data regarding the performance of emerging markers of renal filtration and epigenetic biomarkers of renal function and diabetes in this area with its unique ethnic/racial population. We designed the COMPASS study as a community-based program in rural New Mexico aiming to screen for CKD and to discover CKD-related translational biomarkers.Methods/designThe study involves a prospective, longitudinal cohort design involving individuals living in rural New Mexico. Participants undergo a screening for kidney disease using markers of abnormal renal filtration (impaired glomerular filtration rate) or damage (albuminuria). Those found to have CKD on the basis of these tests or those at risk for CKD are enrolled in a prospective longitudinal cohort. We measure markers of renal function, insulin resistance and epigenetics (microRNAs) on patients. Individuals are invited to participate in interviews and focus groups in order to characterize their attitudes towards research and barriers or facilitators to participation in future research studies about kidney disease.DiscussionThis study will provide important data about the local epidemiology of kidney disease in a high-risk rural setting and the utility of emerging renal filtration markers (Beta 2 Microglobulin and Cystatin C), while generating data and methods for the analyses of microRNA biomarkers. The qualitative research subproject will identify factors associated with increased willingness to participate in future translational research projects. With its geographical focus, this study will address a critical disparity in kidney disease research, while generating novel epigenetic data that are relevant for future studies in the general population.

Association Between Knee Pain, Impaired Function, and Development of Depressive Symptoms.

To examine the association between knee pain and function and depressive symptoms in older Japanese adults. Community-based prospective cohort study. Kurabuchi Town, Gumma Prefecture, Japan. Individuals aged 65 and older (N=573; n=260 men, n=313 women) without depressive symptoms participated in baseline examinations in 2005 and 2006; 95.6% participated in follow-up interviews (2007-08). Degree of knee pain and functional impairment was assessed at baseline using a self-administered questionnaire in Japanese based on an English version of the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index. The Geriatric Depression Scale was used to identify depressive symptoms in face-to-face home-visit interviews conducted 2years later, and the association between knee pain and functional impairment and depressive symptoms was assessed using logistic regression. During the 2-year follow-up, 11.9% of participants developed depressive symptoms, and pain and functional impairment were found to be associated with development of these symptoms. Pain at night while in bed (adjusted odds ratio (aOR)=2.6, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.4-4.9) and difficulty putting on socks (aOR=3.7, 95% CI: 1.8-7.5), getting into and out of a car (aOR=3.4, 95% CI=1.8-6.5), and taking off socks (aOR=3.1, 95% CI=1.5-6.5) were found to be most strongly associated with development of depressive symptoms. Examining elderly people's responses to questions about pain at night and difficulties performing daily activities may be an efficient way of identifying those at high risk of developing depressive symptoms.

Factors associated with carotid Intima media thickness and carotid plaque score in community-dwelling and non-diabetic individuals

BackgroundThe carotid intima media thickness (cIMT) and carotid plaque score (cPS) are respective markers of early and late stage subclinical atherosclerosis. Relationships between some laboratory parameters and subclinical atherosclerosis are not yet clear in community dwelling individuals and non-diabetic subjects, so we try to elucidate these relationships and find a model to predict early and late stage subclinical atherosclerosis.MethodsWe examined relationships of the cIMT and cPS with different laboratory and demographic data of 331 subjects from a community-based prospective cohort study, using univariate and multivariate analyses.ResultsIn regression models and after multiple adjustments, only systolic blood pressure (SBP), age, glycated hemoglobin (HBA1c), and waist circumference (WC) were determinants of the cIMT, and only age, SBP, HBA1c, and blood urea nitrogen (BUN) were determinants of a cPS of > 2 in all individuals. Only HBA1c lost its association with regard to predicting the cIMT in non-diabetic subjects.ConclusionsHBA1c at > 5.9% can determine early and late stage subclinical atherosclerosis in community dwelling individuals, but only late stage subclinical atherosclerosis in non-diabetic subjects.

Insulin Resistance is Associated with Cognitive Decline Among Older Koreans with Normal Baseline Cognitive Function: A Prospective Community-Based Cohort Study

We evaluated whether metabolic factors were associated with cognitive decline, compared to baseline cognitive function, among geriatric population. The present study evaluated data from an ongoing prospective community-based Korean cohort study. Among 1,387 participants who were >65 years old, 422 participants were evaluated using the Korean mini-mental status examination (K-MMSE) at the baseline and follow-up examinations. The mean age at the baseline was 69.3 ± 2.9 years, and 222 participants (52.6%) were men. The mean duration of education was 7.1 ± 3.6 years. During a mean follow-up of 5.9 ± 0.1 years, the K-MMSE score significantly decreased (−1.1 ± 2.7 scores), although no significant change was observed in the homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) value. Participants with more decreased percent changes in K-MMSE scores had a shorter duration of education (p = 0.001), older age (p = 0.022), higher baseline K-MMSE score (p < 0.001), and increased insulin resistance (∆HOMA-IR, p = 0.002). The correlation between the percent changes in K-MMSE and ∆HOMA-IR values remained significant after multivariable adjustment (B = −0.201, p = 0.002). During a 6-year follow-up of older Koreans with normal baseline cognitive function, increased insulin resistance was significantly correlated with decreased cognitive function.

Interpregnancy Interval After Pregnancy Loss and Risk of Repeat Miscarriage.

To assess whether interpregnancy interval length after a pregnancy loss is associated with risk of repeat miscarriage. This analysis includes pregnant women participating in the Right From the Start (2000-2012) community-based prospective cohort study whose most recent pregnancy before enrollment ended in miscarriage. Interpregnancy interval was defined as the time between a prior miscarriage and the last menstrual period of the study pregnancy. Miscarriage was defined as pregnancy loss before 20 weeks of gestation. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate crude and adjusted hazard ratios and 95% CIs for the association between different interpregnancy interval lengths and miscarriage in the study pregnancy. Adjusted models included maternal age, race, parity, body mass index, and education. Among the 514 study participants who reported miscarriage as their most recent pregnancy outcome, 15.7% had a repeat miscarriage in the study pregnancy (n=81). Median maternal age was 30 years (interquartile range 27-34) and 55.6% of participants had at least one previous livebirth (n=286). When compared with women with interpregnancy intervals of 6-18 months (n=136), women with intervals of less than 3 months (n=124) had the lowest risk of repeat miscarriage (7.3% compared with 22.1%; adjusted hazard ratio 0.33, 95% CI 0.16-0.71). Neither maternal race nor parity modified the association. Attempting to conceive immediately was not associated with increased risk of miscarriage in the next pregnancy. An interpregnancy interval after pregnancy loss of less than 3 months is associated with the lowest risk of subsequent miscarriage. This implies counseling women to delay conception to reduce risk of miscarriage may not be warranted.

High and low sodium intakes are associated with incident chronic kidney disease in patients with normal renal function and hypertension

The association between salt intake and renal outcome in subjects with preserved kidney function remains unclear. Here we evaluated the effect of sodium intake on the development of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in a prospective cohort of people with normal renal function. Data were obtained from the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study, a prospective community-based cohort study while sodium intake was estimated by a 24-hour dietary recall Food Frequency Questionnaire. A total of 3,106 individuals with and 4,871 patients without hypertension were analyzed with a primary end point of CKD development [a composite of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) under 60 mL/min/1.73 m2 and/or development of proteinuria during follow-up]. The median ages were 55 and 47 years, the proportions of males 50.9% and 46.3%, and the median eGFR 92 and 96 mL/min/1.73 m2 in individuals with and without hypertension, respectively. During a median follow-up of 123 months in individuals with hypertension and 140 months in those without hypertension, CKD developed in 27.8% and 16.5%, respectively. After adjusting for confounders, multiple Cox models indicated that the risk of CKD development was significantly higher in people with hypertension who consumed less than 2.08 g/day or over 4.03 g/day sodium than in those who consumed between 2.93-4.03 g/day sodium. However, there was no significant difference in the incident CKD risk among each quartile of people without hypertension. Thus, both high and low sodium intakes were associated with increased risk for CKD, but this relationship was only observed in people with hypertension.

The 23-year tracking of blood lipids from adolescence to adulthood in Korea: the Kangwha study

BackgroundSeveral studies have examined tracking pattern of blood lipids level during long follow-up periods in Western countries. However, there have been few such studies in Asian populations.MethodsThe Kangwha Study is a community-based prospective cohort study that started in 1986 on Kangwha Island, South Korea. A total of 432 participants (47% men) were enrolled in the study, during which serum total cholesterol, triglycerides, and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol levels were measured for each participant at least once during adolescence (12–16 years of age) and again at least once during adulthood (25–35 years of age). The tracking patterns of the blood lipid levels were determined using Spearman correlation coefficients and tracking coefficients from generalized estimating equations.ResultsThe Spearman correlation coefficients between lipid measurements ranged from 0.12 to 0.73 depending on the lipid profile and measurement time interval; all were significant (p < 0.05). The magnitude of the coefficients tended to decrease as the time interval increased. When adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, and blood pressure, the tracking coefficients were 0.58 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.54–0.63) for total cholesterol, 0.39 (95% CI: 0.31–0.48) for triglycerides, and 0.51 (95% CI: 0.47–0.56) for HDL cholesterol. In a subgroup analysis by sex, the tracking coefficients were higher for women than for men, except for HDL cholesterol.ConclusionsThe tracking patterns of blood lipids from adolescence to adulthood were notable. This study supports the importance of measuring lipids during adolescence for identifying high-risk individuals.

The Incidence and Short-term Outcomes of Acute Respiratory Illness with Cough in Children from a Socioeconomically Disadvantaged Urban Community in Australia: A Community-Based Prospective Cohort Study.

Acute respiratory illnesses with cough (ARIwC) are predominant causes of morbidity in Australian Indigenous children; however, data on disease burden in urban communities are scarce. This study aimed to determine the incidence of ARIwC, the predictors of recurrent (≥4 episodes) ARIwC, and development of chronic cough following an ARIwC in urban, predominantly Indigenous, children aged <5 years from northern Brisbane, Australia. Prospective cohort study of children aged <5 years registered with a primary healthcare center. ARIwC episodes and outcomes were collected for 12 months. Recurrent ARIwC was defined as ≥4 episodes in 12 months. Chronic cough was defined as cough lasting >4 weeks. Children who developed chronic cough were reviewed by a pediatric pulmonologist. Incidence densities per child-month of observation were calculated and predictors of recurrent ARIwC and chronic cough were evaluated in logistic regression models. Between February 2013 and November 2015, 200 children were enrolled; median age of 18.1 months, range (0.7-59.7 months) and 90% identified as Indigenous. A total of 1,722 child-months of observation were analyzed (mean/child = 8.58, 95% CI 8.18-9.0). The incidence of ARIwC was 24.8/100 child-months at risk (95% CI 22.3-27.5). Twenty-one children (10.5%) experienced recurrent ARIwC. Chronic cough was identified in 70/272 (25.7%) episodes of ARIwC. Predictors of recurrent ARIwC were presence of eczema, mold in the house, parent/carer employment status, and having an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander mother/non-Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander father (compared to both parents being Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander). Predictors of chronic cough included being aged <12 months, eczema, childcare attendance, previous history of cough of >4 weeks duration, having an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander mother/non-Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander father (compared to both parents being Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander), and a low income. Of those with chronic cough reviewed by a pediatric pulmonologist, a significant underlying disorder was found in 14 children (obstructive sleep apnea = 1, bronchiectasis = 2, pneumonia = 2, asthma = 3, tracheomalacia = 6). This community of predominantly Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander and socially disadvantaged children bear a considerable burden of ARIwC. One in 10 children will experience more than three episodes over a 12-month period and 1 in five children will develop chronic cough post ARIwC, some with a serious underlying disorder. Further larger studies that include a broader population base are needed.

Loneliness, health and mortality.

Literature suggests an association between loneliness and mortality for both males and females. Yet, the linkage of loneliness to mortality is not thoroughly examined, and need to be replicated with a long follow-up time. This study assessed the association between loneliness and mortality, including associations to gender, in 1363 adult swedes. This community-based prospective cohort study from the Swedish Lundby Study included 1363 individuals of whom 296 individuals (21.7%) were identified as lonely with use of semi-structured interviews in 1997. The cohort was followed until 2011 and survival analyses were used to estimate the relative risk of death. Death occurred with an incidence rate of 2.63 per 100 person-years and 2.09 per 100 person-years for lonely and non-lonely individuals, respectively. In crude analysis, loneliness was associated with a significant increased mortality risk of 27% compared with non-lonely individuals [hazard ratio (HR) 1.27; 95% CI 1.01-1.60]. Unadjusted, lonely females had a significant increased risk (HR 1.76; 95% CI 1.31-2.34) and adjusted insignificant increased mortality risk of 27% (HR 1.27; 95% CI 0.92-1.74), compared with non-lonely females. Lonely males were found to have an adjusted significant decreased risk of mortality (HR 0.50; 95% CI 0.32-0.80), compared with non-lonely males. Findings suggest an association between loneliness and increased risk of mortality and that gender differences may exist, which have not been previously reported. If replicated, our results indicate that loneliness may have differential physical implications in some subgroups. Future studies are needed to further investigate the influence of gender on the relationship.

Alzheimer's Disease Sequencing Project discovery and replication criteria for cases and controls: Data from a community-based prospective cohort study with autopsy follow-up

IntroductionThe Alzheimer's Disease Sequencing Project (ADSP) used different criteria for assigning case and control status from the discovery and replication phases of the project. We considered data from a community-based prospective cohort study with autopsy follow-up where participants could be categorized as case, control, or neither by both definitions and compared the two sets of criteria. MethodsWe used data from the Adult Changes in Thought (ACT) study including Diagnostic and Statistical Manual–IV criteria for dementia status, McKhann et al. criteria for clinical Alzheimer's disease, and Braak and Consortium to Establish a Registry for AD findings on neurofibrillary tangles and neuritic plaques to categorize the 621 ACT participants of European ancestry who died and came to autopsy. We applied ADSP discovery and replication definitions to identify controls, cases, and people who were neither controls nor cases. ResultsThere was some agreement between the discovery and replication definitions. Major areas of discrepancy included the finding that only 40% of the discovery sample controls had sufficiently low levels of neurofibrillary tangles and neuritic plaques to be considered controls by the replication criteria and the finding that 16% of the replication phase cases were diagnosed with non-AD dementia during life and thus were excluded as cases for the discovery phase. ConclusionsThese findings should inform interpretation of genetic association findings from the ADSP. Differences in genetic association findings between the two phases of the study may reflect these different phenotype definitions from the discovery and replication phase of the ADSP.

Low Plasma Adiponectin Concentrations Predict Increases in Visceral Adiposity and Insulin Resistance.

Context:Plasma adiponectin concentration has been shown to be inversely associated with body mass index (BMI) and insulin resistance in cross-sectional research. However, it is unclear whether adiponectin predicts future body composition and insulin resistance.Objective:We aimed to investigate the potential relationship between adiponectin concentration and future regional body fat distribution and insulin resistance.Design and Setting:This was a community-based prospective cohort study with 5 years of follow-up.Participants:A total of 218 Japanese Americans without diabetes (79 men, 139 women, mean age 51.7 ± 10.1 years) were assessed at baseline and after 5 years of follow-up.Main Outcome Measures:Abdominal visceral and subcutaneous fat area and thigh subcutaneous fat area were measured by computed tomography (CT). Insulin resistance was evaluated by homeostasis model assessment 2 of insulin resistance (HOMA2-IR). Plasma total adiponectin was measured by radioimmunoassay.Results:Baseline adiponectin was inversely associated with abdominal visceral fat area (P = 0.037) and HOMA2-IR (P = 0.002) at 5 years in a multiple linear regression model after adjustment for baseline traits (including age, sex, BMI, abdominal visceral fat area, abdominal subcutaneous fat area, thigh subcutaneous fat area, HOMA2-IR) and weight change. However, no association was seen between baseline adiponectin concentration and BMI or other CT-measured regional fat depots at 5 years.Conclusions:Low plasma adiponectin concentration independently predicted future abdominal visceral fat accumulation and increased insulin resistance in Japanese Americans.

Importance of glomerular filtration rate change as surrogate endpoint for the future incidence of end-stage renal disease in general Japanese population: community-based cohort study

BackgroundBecause of the necessity for extended period and large costs until the event occurs, surrogate endpoints are indispensable for implementation of clinical studies to improve chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients’ prognosis.MethodsSubjects with serum creatinine level for a baseline period over 1–3 years were enrolled (n = 69,238) in this community-based prospective cohort study in Okinawa, Japan, and followed up for 15 years. The endpoint was end-stage renal disease (ESRD). The percent of estimated glomerular filtration rate (%eGFR) change was calculated on the basis of the baseline period.ResultsSubjects had a mean ± SD age, 55.59 ± 14.69 years; eGFR, 80.15 ± 21.15 ml/min/1.73 m2. Among the subjects recruited, 15.81% had a low eGFR (<60 ml/min/1.73 m2) and 36.1/100,000 person years developed ESRD. Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for baseline characteristics showed that the risk of ESRD tended to be high with high rates of decrease in %eGFR changes over 2 or 3 years in the high- and low-eGFR groups. The specificities and positive predictive values for ESRD based on a cutoff value of %eGFR change of less than −30% over 2 or 3 years were high in the high- and low-eGFR groups.Conclusions%eGFR change tends to be associated with the risk of ESRD. %eGFR change of less than −30% over 2 or 3 years can be a candidate surrogate endpoint for ESRD in the general Japanese population.

Abnormal P-Wave Axis and Ischemic Stroke: The ARIC Study (Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities).

Abnormal P-wave axis (aPWA) has been linked to incident atrial fibrillation and mortality; however, the relationship between aPWA and stroke has not been reported. We hypothesized that aPWA is associated with ischemic stroke independent of atrial fibrillation and other stroke risk factors and tested our hypothesis in the ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities), a community-based prospective cohort study. We included 15 102 participants (aged 54.2±5.7 years; 55.2% women; 26.5% blacks) who attended the baseline examination (1987-1989) and without prevalent stroke. We defined aPWA as any value outside 0 to 75° using 12-lead ECGs obtained during study visits. Each case of incident ischemic stroke was classified in accordance with criteria from the National Survey of Stroke by a computer algorithm and adjudicated by physician review. Multivariable Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for the association of aPWA with stroke. During a mean follow-up of 20.2 years, there were 657 incident ischemic stroke cases. aPWA was independently associated with a 1.50-fold (95% confidence interval, 1.22-1.85) increased risk of ischemic stroke in the multivariable model that included atrial fibrillation. When subtyped, aPWA was associated with a 2.04-fold (95% confidence interval, 1.42-2.95) increased risk of cardioembolic stroke and a 1.32-fold (95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.71) increased risk of thrombotic stroke. aPWA is independently associated with ischemic stroke. This association seems to be stronger for cardioembolic strokes. Collectively, our findings suggest that alterations in atrial electric activation may predispose to cardiac thromboembolism independent of atrial fibrillation.

Hepatitis C viral load, genotype, and increased risk of developing end-stage renal disease: REVEAL-HCV study.

This study reveals that chronic HCV infection is associated with an increased risk of developing ESRD and suggests that elevated serum levels of HCV RNA (>167,000 IU/mL) and HCV genotype 1 are strong predictors of ESRD, indicating clinical implications for the management of chronic HCV. (Hepatology 2017;66:784-793).

High dietary phosphorus density is a risk factor for incident chronic kidney disease development in diabetic subjects: a community-based prospective cohort study

Background: High serum phosphorus concentrations are associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disease and progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD). However, the relation between dietary phosphorus intake and CKD development has not been well evaluated.Objective: In this study, we investigated the impact of dietary phosphorus density on the development of incident CKD in a cohort of subjects with normal renal function.Design: Data were retrieved from the Korean Genome and Epidemiology Study, a prospective community-based cohort study. The study cohort consisted of subjects aged 40-69 y, who were followed up biennially from 2001 to 2014. A total of 873 subjects with diabetes mellitus (DM) and 5846 subjects without DM (non-DM) were included in the final analysis. The primary endpoint was incident CKD, defined as a composite of estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL · min-1 · 1.73 m-2 and/or the development of proteinuria.Results: In the DM and non-DM groups, the mean ages of the participants were 55.6 ± 8.7 and 51.4 ± 8.6 y, the numbers of male subjects were 454 (52.0%) and 2784 (47.6%), and the mean estimated glomerular filtration rates were 91.6 ± 14.0 and 94.5 ± 14.0 mL · min-1 · 1.73 m-2, respectively. The mean values of dietary phosphorus density, defined as the ratio of a single-day dietary phosphorus amount to the total daily calorie intake, were 0.51 ± 0.08 mg/kcal in the DM group and 0.51 ± 0.07 mg/kcal in the non-DM group. During the follow-up, CKD newly developed in 283 (32.4%) and 792 subjects (13.5%) in the DM and non-DM groups, respectively. When the subjects were divided into quartiles according to the dietary phosphorus density in each group, the highest quartile was significantly associated with the development of incident CKD by multiple Cox proportional hazard analysis in the DM group (P = 0.02) but not in the non-DM group (P = 0.72).Conclusions: High dietary phosphorus density is associated with an increased risk of CKD development in DM patients with normal renal function. The causality in this association needs to be tested in a randomized controlled trial.