Commodity Risk Research Articles

Commodity risk assessment of Petunia spp. and Calibrachoa spp. unrooted cuttings from Kenya.

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to evaluate the probability of entry of pests (likelihood of pest freedom at entry), including both regulated and non-regulated pests, associated with unrooted cuttings of the genera Petunia and Calibrachoa produced under physical isolation in Kenya. The relevance of any pest for this opinion was based on evidence following defined criteria, based on the methodology used for High-Risk Plants adapted for the specificity of this assessment. Fourteen EU-regulated pests (Bemisia tabaci, cowpea mild mottle virus, Liriomyza huidobrensis, Liriomyza sativae, Liriomyza trifolii, potato leafroll virus, potato spindle tuber viroid, Ralstonia pseudosolanacearum, R. solanacearum, Scirtothrips dorsalis, tomato mild mottle virus, tomato spotted wilt virus, tomato yellow leaf curl virus and Xanthomonas vesicatoria) and six EU non-regulated pests (Aleurodicus dispersus, pepper veinal mottle virus, Nipaecoccus viridis, Phenacoccus solenopsis, Tetranychus neocaledonicus and tomato yellow ring virus) fulfilled all relevant criteria and were selected for further evaluation. For these pests, the risk mitigation measures proposed in the technical dossier from Kenya were evaluated, taking into account the possible limiting factors. Additionally, an expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom, taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. The estimated degree of pest freedom varies among the pests evaluated, with T. neocaledonicus being the pest most frequently expected on the imported cuttings. The Expert Knowledge Elicitation indicated, with 95% certainty, that between 9942 and 10,000 bags containing unrooted cuttings of Petunia spp. and Calibrachoa spp. per 10,000 would be free of T. neocaledonicus.

Pest categorisation of Crisicoccus seruratus.

Following the commodity risk assessments of Acer palmatum plants grafted on A. davidii from China, in which Crisicoccus matsumotoi (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae) was identified as a pest of possible concern, the European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to conduct a pest categorisation of C. matsumotoi for the territory of the European Union. Recent taxonomic revision of the genus Crisisoccus concluded that C. matsumotoi is a synonym of C. seruratus; therefore, the categorisation will use the current valid name C. seruratus. It is an insect pest native to Japan, feeding on species in 13 plant families. There are reports of its presence also in China and the Republic of Korea, but there is great uncertainty about the identity of the species for these records. Therefore, there is uncertainty about the species referred to as C. matsumotoi in the commodity risk assessments of A. palmatum. C. seruratus is a multivoltine species. It has three generations per year and overwinters as a nymph. The most important crops that may be affected by C. seruratus are figs (Ficus carica), grapes (Vitis spp.), nashi pears (Pyrus pyrifolia var. culta), persimmons (Diospyros kaki) and walnuts (Juglans regia). Plants for planting and fruits provide potential pathways for entry into the EU. Host availability and climate suitability suggest that the central, northern and some areas of southern EU countries would be suitable for the establishment of C. seruratus. The introduction of this mealybug would likely have an economic impact in the EU through yield reduction and fruit downgrading because of honeydew deposition and the consequent growth of sooty moulds. This insect is not listed in Annex II of Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2019/2072. Phytosanitary measures are available to reduce the likelihood of entry and spread of this species into the EU. C. seruratus satisfies the criteria that are within the remit of EFSA to assess for it to be regarded as a potential Union quarantine pest.

A deep learning‐based financial hedging approach for the effective management of commodity risks

AbstractThe development of deep learning technique has granted firms with new opportunities to substantially improve their risk management strategies for sustainable growth. This paper introduces a novel deep learning‐based financial hedging (DL‐HE) strategy to leverage the salient ability of deep learning in extracting nonlinear features from complex high dimensional data, thus boosting the management of inventory risks arising from erratic commodity prices. Using real‐world data, we find that the average annualized economic benefit of the proposed strategy is at least 1.21 million CNY for a typical aluminum firm carrying an average level of inventory in China, as compared with those of the traditional hedging strategies. Further analysis reveals that such an economic benefit can largely be explained by the efficacy of the proposed DL‐HE strategy in terms of significantly improving return while still effectively controlling risk. Moreover, the superior of this strategy remains robust when extending to copper and zinc.

Pest categorisation of Garella musculana.

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to conduct a pest categorisation of Garella musculana (Erschov) (Lepidoptera: Nolidae), following a commodity risk assessment of Juglans regia plants for planting from Türkiye, in which G. musculana was identified as a pest of possible concern to the European Union (EU). Commonly known as the Asian walnut moth, this pest is native to Central Asia and develops on shoots, buds and fruits of Juglans species such as the English walnut, J. regia and the black walnut, J. nigra. Other reported host plants, such as Prunus dulcis and Populus spp., still require confirmation. The pest was first recorded in the EU (Bulgaria) in 2016 and was then reported in Romania in 2018 and Italy in 2021. This moth completes from one to four generations per year depending on environmental conditions (from valley to mountain forests and orchards up to an altitude of 2100 m). Eggs are laid in groups of 2-3 on young nuts or on buds of 1-year-old shoots. Neonate larvae usually enter the young nut through the peduncle. After fully exploiting one nut, the larva continues feeding in another one. Development takes 25-40 days. Larvae of the autumn generation do not enter the nuts, and so feed only in the pericarp. Larvae also often feed inside 1-year-old shoots or leaf axils. Larvae develop within the host but exit to pupate under loose bark or in deep cracks of bark. The pest overwinters at the larval or pupal stages. Plants for planting, cut branches and infested nuts provide pathways for entry. Climatic conditions and availability of host plants in southern and central EU MSs have allowed this species to establish and spread in Bulgaria, Romania and Italy. Adults can fly and the pest could spread naturally within the EU. Impact on Juglans spp. cultivated for fruit, timber and ornamental purposes is anticipated. Phytosanitary measures are available to reduce the likelihood of entry and further spread of G. musculana. This species meets the criteria that are within the remit of EFSA to assess for this species to be regarded as a potential Union quarantine pest.

Commodity risk assessment of Cornus alba and Cornus sanguinea plants from the UK.

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as 'high risk plants, plant products and other objects'. Taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by the applicant country, this Scientific Opinion covers the plant health risks posed by the following commodities: Cornus alba and Cornus sanguinea bare-root plants and rooted plants in pots up to 7 years old imported into the EU from the UK. A list of pests potentially associated with the commodities was compiled. The relevance of any pest was assessed based on evidence following defined criteria. Four EU quarantine pests (Meloidogyne fallax, Phytophthora ramorum (non-EU isolates), tobacco ringspot virus, and tomato ringspot virus) and one EU non-regulated pest (Discula destructiva), were selected for further evaluation. For the selected pests, the risk mitigation measures implemented in the technical dossier from the UK were evaluated taking into account the possible limiting factors. For these pests, an expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. The degree of pest freedom varies among the pests evaluated, with P. ramorum being the pest most frequently expected on the imported C. alba and C. sanguinea plants. The Expert Knowledge Elicitation indicated, with 95% certainty, that between 9823 and 10,000 bare-root C. alba and C. sanguinea plants per 10,000 will be free from P. ramorum.

Pest categorisation of Pyrrhoderma noxium.

Following the commodity risk assessment of bonsai plants (Pinus parviflora grafted on Pinus thunbergii) from China performed by EFSA, the EFSA Plant Health Panel performed a pest categorisation of Pyrrhoderma noxium, a clearly defined plant pathogenic basidiomycete fungus of the order Hymenochaetales and the family Hymenochaetaceae. The pathogen is considered as opportunistic and has been reported on a wide range of hosts, mainly broad-leaved and coniferous woody plants, causing root rots. In addition, the fungus was reported to live saprophytically on woody substrates and was isolated as an endophyte from a few plant species. This pest categorisation focuses on the hosts that are relevant for the EU (e.g. Citrus, Ficus, Pinus, Prunus, Pyrus, Quercus and Vitis vinifera). Pyrrhoderma noxium is present in Africa, Central and South America, Asia and Oceania. It has not been reported in the EU. Pyrrhoderma noxium is not included in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2019/2072. Plants for planting (excluding seeds), bark and wood of host plants as well as soil and other growing media associated with plant debris are the main pathways for the entry of the pathogen into the EU. Host availability and climate suitability factors occurring in parts of the EU are favourable for the establishment and spread of the pathogen. The introduction and spread of the pathogen into the EU are expected to have an economic and environmental impact in parts of the territory where hosts are present. Phytosanitary measures are available to prevent the introduction and spread of the pathogen into the EU. Pyrrhoderma noxium satisfies all the criteria that are within the remit of EFSA to assess for this species to be regarded as potential Union quarantine pest.

Commodity risk assessment of plants of 12 selected Prunus species from Moldova.

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as 'High-risk plants, plant products and other objects'. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by defoliated 1- or 2-year old bare root plants for planting (grafted or not) of 12 Prunus species (Prunus armeniaca, P. avium, P. canescens, P. cerasifera, P. cerasus, P. davidiana, P. domestica, P. dulcis, P. fontanesiana, P. persica, P. salicina, P. tomentosa) imported from Moldova, taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by the applicant country. The evaluation identified three EU-quarantine pests, Erwinia amylovora (protected zone quarantine pest), Xiphinema rivesi non-EU populations and Xanthomonas arboricola pv. pruni (protected zone quarantine pest), which were selected for further evaluation, based on defined criteria, including their presence in the applicant country. It should be noted that there is uncertainty regarding whether all relevant pests have been identified due to a limited number of scientific publications and pest surveys in Moldova. For the three selected pests, the risk mitigation measures proposed in the technical dossier from Moldova were evaluated taking into account the possible limiting factors. For these pests, an expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on it, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. The degree of pest freedom varies among the pests evaluated, with Erwinia amylovora being the pest most frequently expected on the imported plants. The Expert Knowledge Elicitation indicated, with 95% certainty, that between 9823 and 10,000 bundles (comprising 10-20 plants per bundle) out of 10,000 bundles would be free from E. amylovora.

Pest categorisation of Lepidosaphes malicola.

The EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of Lepidosaphes malicola (Hemiptera: Diaspididae), the Armenian mussel scale, for the territory of the European Union, following commodity risk assessments of Prunus persica and P. dulcis plants for planting from Türkiye, in which L. malicola was identified as a pest of possible concern. L. malicola is a polyphagous insect of temperate and arid areas, feeding on more than 60 plant species belonging to 26 families. Important crops significantly affected by L. malicola in parts of Asia include stone fruits (Prunus armeniaca, P. persica), pome fruits (Malus domestica, Pyrus communis), grapes (Vitis vinifera), pomegranate (Punica granatum), walnuts (Juglans regia) and ornamental plants (Berberis spp., Cornus spp., Jasminum spp., Ligustrum spp.). L. malicola has two generations annually. The overwintered eggs hatch from late May to early June. First-instar nymphs crawl on the host plant for a short period, then settle to feed. Nymphs reach maturity in late summer or early autumn. Plants for planting, fruits and cut flowers provide potential pathways for entry into the EU. Host availability and climate suitability suggest that southern, central and some parts of northern EU countries would be suitable for the establishment of L. malicola. Despite being a pest in Armenia, Iran and Tajikistan, there is no evidence of it being a pest in Türkiye. L. malicola was detected in Bulgaria and Greece over 30 years ago, but there have been no records since, and its status is uncertain. Its ability to cause an impact in the EU is also uncertain. It is not listed in Annex II of the Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2019/2072. Phytosanitary measures are available to reduce the likelihood of entry. Except for the criterion of having an economic or environmental impact, for which there is great uncertainty, L. malicola satisfies all other criteria that are within the remit of EFSA to assess for it to be regarded as a potential Union quarantine pest.

Pest categorisation of Dendrolimus punctatus.

The EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of Dendrolimus punctatus (Lepidoptera: Lasiocampidae), following a commodity risk assessment of bonsai Pinus parviflora grafted onto P. thunbergii from China, in which D. punctatus was identified as a pest of possible concern to the European Union (EU). D. punctatus, also known as the Masson pine caterpillar, is present in China, Taiwan, Vietnam, India and has recently spread to Japanese islands close to Taiwan. Larval feeding on the needles of Pinus elliottii, P. luchuensis, P. massoniana, P. merkusii and P. tabulaeformis causes important damage. D. punctatus larvae can also feed on P. armandii, P. echinata, P. latteri, P. parviflora, P. sylvestris var. mongolica, P. taeda, P. taiwanensis and P. thunbergii, but full development on these hosts is uncertain. The pest has three to five generations per year; winter is spent as larvae on branch tips, on tree trunks and in the soil. The females lay egg clusters on pine needles. Pupation occurs in cocoons attached to branches or needles. D. punctatus could enter the EU either as eggs, larvae or pupae in the foliage of plants for planting or cut branches, as larvae on wood with bark or as overwintering larvae in branches, crevices in the bark or in the litter of potted plants. However, Annex VI of 2019/2072 prohibits the introduction of D. punctatus hosts (Pinus spp.) from countries and areas where the pest occurs. There are climate zones where the pest occurs in Asia that also occur in the EU, though they are limited, which constitutes an uncertainty regarding establishment. The pest's main hosts are not grown in the EU. However, the fact that it attacks the North American Pinus echinata, P. elliottii and P. taeda in its Asian native area suggests a potential capacity to shift to pine species occurring in the EU territory. D. punctatus satisfies all the criteria that are within the remit of EFSA to assess for it to be regarded as a potential Union quarantine pest. Whether the Pinus commonly found in Europe could act as hosts is unknown but is fundamental, affecting the criteria of establishment and magnitude of impact.

CiteSpace-based Commodity Trading Risk Research Status and Trend Analysis

Commodities play a pivotal role in the global economy, and their dramatic price fluctuations can affect national security and global economic stability. This paper focus on the field of commodities, utilizing the Web of Science and CNKI databases. Based on the CiteSpace knowledge graph visualization analysis tool, it conducts a bibliometric analysis of the Chinese and English literature on commodity risk published from 2004 to 2023, aiming to reveal the keywords, emerging trends, major research institutions and their collaborative networks, trends in the issuance of articles, and major contributing countries, and authors. This analysis provides insights into the academic landscape of commodity risk and helps to identify future research directions.

Commodity risk assessment of Petunia spp. and Calibrachoa spp. unrooted cuttings from Guatemala.

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to evaluate the probability of entry of pests (likelihood of pest freedom at entry), including both, regulated and non-regulated pests, associated with unrooted cuttings of the genera Petunia and Calibrachoa produced under physical isolation in Guatemala. The relevance of any pest for this opinion was based on evidence following defined criteria, based on the methodology used for high-risk plants adapted for the specificity of this assessment. Nineteen EU regulated pests (Bemisia tabaci, pepper golden mosaic virus, pepper huasteco yellow vein virus, tomato severe leaf curl virus, tomato yellow leaf curl virus, tomato spotted wilt virus, Liriomyza huidobrensis, Liriomyza sativae, Liriomyza trifolii, Bactericera cockerelli, Eotetranichus lewisi, Epitrix subcrinita, Epitrix cucumeris, Helicoverpa zea, Chloridea virescens, Spodoptera ornithogalli, Ralstonia solanacearum, Ralstonia pseudosolanacearum, Xanthomonas vesicatoria) and one EU non-regulated (Phenacoccus solenopsis) pest fulfilled all relevant criteria and were selected for further evaluation. For these pests, the risk mitigation measures proposed in the technical dossier from Guatemala were evaluated taking into account the possible limiting factors, and an expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. The limited and partially conflicting information provided in the dossier contributes to the wide estimates of pest freedom. The estimated degree of pest freedom varies among the pests evaluated, with Ralstonia spp. (R. solanacearum and R. pseudosolanacearum) being the pest most frequently expected on the imported cuttings. The expert knowledge elicitation indicated, with 95% certainty, that between 9916 and 10,000 bags containing unrooted cuttings per 10,000 would be free of Ralstonia spp.

Commodity risk assessment of Corylus avellana plants from the UK.

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as 'High risk plants, plant products and other objects'. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by plants of Corylus avellana imported from the United Kingdom (UK) as: (a) bundles of 1- to 2-year old whips or transplants, (b) bundles of 1- to 2-year old cell grown plants, (c) 1- to 7-year old bare root single plants and (d) up to 15-year old single plants in pots, taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by the UK. All pests associated with the commodity were evaluated against specific criteria for their relevance for this opinion. Two EU quarantine pests, Phytophthora ramorum (non-EU isolates) and Thaumetopoea processionea fulfilled all relevant criteria and were selected for further evaluation. For the selected pests, the risk mitigation measures implemented in the technical dossier from the UK were evaluated taking into account the possible limiting factors. For these pests an expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. In the assessment of risk, the age of the plants was considered, reasoning that older trees are more likely to be infested mainly due to longer exposure time and larger size. The degree of pest freedom varies among the pests evaluated, with P. ramorum being the pest most frequently expected on the imported plants. The expert knowledge elicitation indicated with 95% certainty that between 9939 and 10,000 of the single plants in pots up to 15-year old will be free from P. ramorum (non-EU isolates).

Pest categorisation of Pratylenchus loosi.

Following the EFSA commodity risk assessment of Malus domestica plants imported from Türkiye into the EU, the EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of Pratylenchus loosi (Nematoda: Pratylenchidae) for the EU. Pratylenchus loosi belongs to the order Rhabditida, subfamily Pratylenchidae. This nematode is not known to be present in the EU. The species is not included in the EU Commission Implementing Regulation 2019/2072. The pest occurs primarily in tropical, subtropical and warm temperate areas. It is widely distributed in Asian countries, with tea plants (Camellia sinensis) as the main host. The pest was reported from more than 60 plant species, but reports from hosts other than C. sinensis, e.g. citrus (Citrus spp.) and banana (Musa spp.), are associated with high uncertainty due to doubtful pest identification. Morphological and molecular methods are available for the identification of the pest. Pathways of entry are host plants for planting except seeds, as well as soil attached to plants for planting, machinery or footwear. Soil import to the EU is prohibited from third countries. The climatic preferences of P. loosi are compatible with the microclimatic conditions occurring in the areas of the EU where tea is grown outside. The impact of the nematode is primarily known for Asian countries, where it is a devastating pathogen on tea plants, but there is a key uncertainty on impacts on hosts other than tea. Considering the strong pathogenicity of the pest, its establishment in tea producing areas would have negative consequences for tea producers. Therefore, the Panel concludes that P. loosi satisfies all the criteria that are within the remit of EFSA to assess for it to be regarded as a potential Union quarantine pest.

Probabilistic and statistical methods in commodity risk management

Probabilistic and statistical methods in commodity risk management

Pest categorisation of Pestalotiopsis disseminata.

Following the commodity risk assessments of bonsai plants from China consisting of Pinus parviflora grafted on P. thunbergii performed by EFSA, the EFSA Plant Health Panel performed a pest categorisation of Pestalotiopsis disseminata, a clearly defined plant pathogenic fungus of the family Pestalotiopsidaceae. The pathogen has been reported on herbaceous, woody and ornamental plants causing symptoms such as leaf blight, shoot blight, seedling blight, pod canker, pre- and post-harvest fruit rot, and gummosis. Moreover, the fungus was reported as an endophyte on a wide range of asymptomatic hosts. The pathogen is present in Africa, North and South America, Asia, Europe and Oceania. It has been reported from the EU, with a restricted distribution (Portugal). There is a key uncertainty on the geographical distribution of P. disseminata in the EU and worldwide, because of the endophytic nature of the fungus, the lack of surveys and since the pathogen might have been misidentified based only on morphology and pathogenicity tests. The pathogen is not included in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2019/2072. This pest categorisation focuses on those hosts that are relevant for the EU and for which there is robust evidence that the pathogen was formally identified by a combination of morphology, pathogenicity and multilocus sequence analysis. Plants for planting, fresh fruits, bark and wood of host plants as well as soil and other plant growing media are the main pathways for the entry of the pathogen into the EU. Host availability and climate suitability factors occurring in parts of the EU are favourable for the establishment of the pathogen. Despite the low aggressiveness observed in most reported hosts, and the fact that P. disseminata may colonise plants as an endophyte, its introduction and spread in the EU may have an economic and environmental impact (with a key uncertainty) where susceptible hosts are grown. Phytosanitary measures are available to prevent the introduction and spread of the pathogen. The Panel cannot conclude on whether P. disseminata satisfies all the criteria that are within the remit of EFSA to assess for this species to be regarded as potential Union quarantine pest, because of the key uncertainties on the restricted distribution in the EU and the magnitude of the impact.

Pest categorisation of Diaprepes abbreviatus.

The EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of the citrus root weevil Diaprepes abbreviatus (L.) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) for the European Union (EU) following the commodity risk assessment of Ligustrum delavayanum topiary grafted on L. japonicum plants from the UK in which D.abbreviatus was identified as a relevant non-regulated EU pest which could potentially enter the EU. This species is native to the Caribbean and was introduced to the continental USA in 1964, to Gran Canaria (Spain) in 2014 and to Madeira Island (Portugal) in 2018. It is a polyphagous insect, associated with more than 270 species in 60 plant families. Female D. abbreviatus can lay up to 5,000 eggs in clusters within leaves folded and glued together. Neonate larvae drop off the leaves onto the ground and enter the soil, where they feed on roots for several months. The mature larvae pupate in the soil. After emergence, adults usually stay on the first host plant they encounter and can move long distances on nursery stock. D. abbreviatus is not a regulated pest in the EU. It could enter and spread within the EU via the import and movement of host plants for planting, cut flowers and soil. Some host plants for planting (e.g. Vitis spp., Citrus spp.), and soil are prohibited from entering the EU from countries where this weevil is known to occur. The import of other host plants for planting and cut flowers is subject to phytosanitary certificate and that of soil attached to machinery is regulated. Host availability and climate suitability suggest that the southernmost coastal areas of southern EU MSs would be suitable for establishment of D. abbreviatus. Temporary establishment in greenhouses in other EU territories would be possible. The introduction of D. abbreviatus would likely cause impacts. Measures to prevent entry, spread and impact are available. D. abbreviatus satisfies all the criteria that are within the remit of EFSA to assess for it to be regarded as a potential Union quarantine pest.

Pest categorisation of Lepidosaphes pineti, L. pini and L. piniphila.

The EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of Lepidosaphes pineti Borchsenius the pine oyster scale, Lepidosaphes pini (Maskell) the Oriental pine scale and Lepidosaphes piniphila Borchsenius (Hemiptera: Diaspididae) for the EU, following a commodity risk assessment of dwarfed Pinus parviflora grafted onto P. thunbergii from China in which the three Lepidosaphes species were identified as pests of possible concern to the EU. All three species are native to Asia. L. pineti is only known from China; L. piniphila occurs in China, Japan and Malaysia; and L. pini is present in China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and has been introduced to the USA. All three species feed primarily on Pinus spp., including several important forestry and ornamental trees, and L. pineti and L. pini have adapted to feed on North American species of pine. L. pineti also feeds on Torreya grandis; L. pini on Abies sp., Cunninghamia lanceolata, Cycas spp., Podocarpus spp., Taxus sp. and Torreya sp.; and L. piniphila on Podocarpus spp. and T. grandis. All developmental stages occur on the foliage. Host plants for planting and cut branches with foliage could provide pathways into the EU. However, prohibitions on the import of Pinus close the main pathway. Certain dwarfed Pinus spp. from Japan are provided with a derogation for entry into the EU. The main hosts (Pinus spp.) occur throughout the EU in climate zones that match those where the three Lepidosaphes species occur in Asia. If any of the three Lepidosaphes species were to enter the EU, conditions in most of the EU are conducive to establishment. Following establishment, impacts on pines by L. pineti and L. pini would be expected. There are no published reports of L. piniphila causing damage to pine. L. pineti and L. pini satisfy the criteria that are within the remit of EFSA to assess for them to be regarded as potential Union quarantine pests. L. piniphila does not satisfy the criteria, as there is no evidence that it is harmful; however, there is a key uncertainty regarding whether it is synonymous with a closely related species, L. pitysophila, which is recorded as a pest of pine in China.

Pest categorisation of Mimela testaceipes.

The EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of Mimela testaceipes (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae), the striated chafer, for the EU, following a commodity risk assessment of dwarfed Pinus parviflora grafted onto P. thunbergii from China in which M. testaceipes was identified as a pest of possible concern to the EU. M. testaceipes occurs in Japan, northeast China, Far East Russia, South Korea and very likely North Korea. Adults are recognised pests feeding on and damaging the needles of Japanese cedar (Cryptomeria japonica), Japanese cypress (Chamaecyparis obtusa) and Japanese larch (Larix leptolepis) which are important forestry trees where the pest currently occurs. It has adapted to feed on the needles of Pinus species introduced into its native area, such as P. taeda, which is native to southeastern USA although M. testaceipes is not regarded as a significant pest of pines. Larvae are reported to cause root damage to grasses, as well as conifers. Eggs are usually laid in grassy soils by females that develop on conifer species. Larvae develop in the soil feeding on the roots of grasses or conifer hosts. Larvae overwinter in the soil and take 2 or 3 years to develop. In principle soil, host plants for planting and cut branches with foliage could provide pathways into the EU. However, prohibitions on the import of soil and hosts such as Chamaecyparis, Larix and Pinus regulate such pathways into the EU. Nevertheless, certain dwarfed Pinus spp. from Japan are provided with a derogation for entry into the EU. In addition, the host C. japonica is unregulated and could also provide a pathway. Hosts occur in the EU in climate zones that match those where M. testaceipes occurs in Asia. If M. testaceipes were to enter the EU, conditions in central and northern EU are conducive to establishment. Following establishment, impacts on Japanese cedar, Japanese cypress and Japanese larch would be expected; it is possible that M. testaceipes could adapt to feed on Pinus and Larix species growing in Europe. M. testaceipes satisfies the criteria that are within the remit of EFSA to assess for it to be regarded as a potential Union quarantine pest.

The commodity risk premium and neural networks

The paper uses linear and nonlinear predictive models to study the linkage between a set of 128 macroeconomic and financial predictors and the risk premium of commodity futures contracts. The linear models use shrinkage methods based on either naive averaging or principal components. The nonlinear models use feedforward deep neural networks (DNN) either as stand-alone or in conjunction with a long short-term memory network (LSTM). Out of the four specifications considered, the LSTM-DNN architecture best captures the risk premium, which underscores the need to estimate models that are both nonlinear and recurrent. The superior performance of the LSTM-DNN portfolio persists after accounting for transaction costs or illiquidity and is unrelated to previously-documented commodity risk factors.

Commodity risk assessment of Quercus petraea plants from the UK.

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as 'High-risk plants, plant products and other objects'. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by plants of Quercus petraea imported from the UK as: (a) bundles of 1- to 2-year-old whips and seedlings, (b) 1- to 7-year-old bare root plants for planting and (c) less than 1- to 15-year-old plants in pots, taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by the UK. All pests associated with the commodity were evaluated against specific criteria for their relevance for this opinion. Two EU quarantine pests, Cronartium quercuum and Phytophthora ramorum (non-EU isolates), two protected zone quarantine pests, Cryphonectria parasitica and Thaumetopoea processionea, and four pests not regulated in the EU, Coniella castaneicola, Meloidogyne mali, Phytophthora kernoviae and Trinophylum cribratum, fulfilled all relevant criteria and were selected for further evaluation. For the selected pests, the risk mitigation measures included in the technical dossier from the UK were evaluated taking into account the possible limiting factors. For these pests an expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. In the assessment of risk, the age of the plants was considered, reasoning that older trees are more likely to be infested mainly due to longer exposure time and larger size. The degree of pest freedom varies among the pests evaluated, with C. castaneicola being the pests most frequently expected on the imported plants. The Expert knowledge elicitation indicated with 95% certainty that between 9,711 and 10,000 per 10,000 less than 1- to 15-year-old plants in pots will be free from C.castaneicola.