Commodity Risk Research Articles

Commodity risk assessment of Betula pendula and Betula pubescens plants from the UK.

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as 'High risk plants, plant products and other objects'. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by plants of Betula pendula and B. pubescens imported from the United Kingdom (UK) taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by the UK. The commodities were grouped in the risk assessment as (a) bundles of 10-20 graftwood/budwood (up to 1-year-old), (b) bare root plants which include bundles of 25 or 50 seedlings or transplants (1-2 years-old), bundles of 5, 10 or 15 whips (1-2 years-old) and single bare root plants (1-7 years-old), (c) plants in pots which include bundles of 5 and 10 cell-grown plants (1-2 years-old) and rooted plants in pots (1-7 years-old), and (d) large specimen trees up to 15-years-old. All pests associated with the commodities were evaluated against specific criteria for their relevance for this opinion. Two EU quarantine pests i.e. Meloidogyne fallax and Phytophthora ramorum (non-EU isolates) and two protected zone quarantine pests i.e. Entoleuca mammata and Thaumetopoea processionea fulfilled all relevant criteria and were selected for further evaluation. For the selected pests, the risk mitigation measures described in the technical dossier from the UK were evaluated considering the possible limiting factors. For these pests an expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. In the assessment of risk, the age of the plants was considered, as larger trees are more likely to be infested mainly due to longer time grown in the field. In addition, larger canopies and root systems are more difficult to inspect, thereby making the detection of pests more challenging on large trees. The likelihood of pest freedom varies among the pests evaluated, with M. fallax being the pest most frequently expected on the imported plants. The Expert Knowledge Elicitation (EKE) indicated with 95% certainty that between 9735 and 10,000 per 10,000 large specimen trees will be free from M. fallax.

Commodity risk assessment of Petunia spp. and Calibrachoa spp. unrooted cuttings from Costa Rica.

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to evaluate the probability of entry of pests (likelihood of pest freedom at entry), including both regulated and non-regulated pests, associated with unrooted cuttings of the genera Petunia and Calibrachoa produced under physical isolation in Costa Rica. The relevance of any pest for this opinion was based on evidence collected according to specific criteria, following the methodology used for high-risk plants adapted for the specificity of this assessment. Twenty-two EU regulated pests (beet curly top virus, Bemisia tabaci, Chloridea virescens, Eotetranychus lewisi, Epitrix cucumeris, Epitrix tuberis, euphorbia mosaic virus, Helicoverpa zea, Liriomyza huidobrensis, Liriomyza sativae, Liriomyza trifolii, pepper golden mosaic virus, potato spindle tuber viroid, Ralstonia pseudosolanacearum, Ralstonia solanacearum, Spodoptera ornithogalli, squash leaf curl virus, Thrips palmi, tomato golden mosaic virus, tomato leaf curl Sinaloa virus, tomato spotted wilt virus, tomato yellow leaf curl virus) and one pest that is not regulated in the EU (Aleurodicus dispersus) fulfilled all relevant criteria and were selected for further evaluation. For these pests, the risk mitigation measures proposed in the technical dossier from Costa Rica were evaluated taking into account possible factors limiting their efficacies. Additionally, an expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. The estimated degree of pest freedom varies among the pests evaluated, with tomato spotted wilt virus being the pest most frequently expected on the imported cuttings. The expert knowledge elicitation indicated, with 95% certainty that between 9927 and 10,000 bags containing unrooted cuttings of Petunia spp. and Calibrachoa spp. per 10,000 would be free of tomato spotted wilt virus.

Adaptive market efficiency and geopolitical risk in agricultural commodity markets

Adaptive market efficiency and geopolitical risk in agricultural commodity markets

Risk Management Practices among Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs): Basis for Risk Assessment Framework

Understanding the risk management practices used by MSMEs is crucial in order to ensure their long-term growth and survival. This study aims to determine the risk management practices among Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) in the City of San Jose Del Monte, Bulacan which would be the basis for the risk assessment framework. One hundred MSMEs owners’ respondents were considered for this study which utilized quantitative approach and descriptive research design. A survey questionnaire determined how MSMEs deal with different risk they face and what practices they need to implement and lessen the risk that might have an impact on the achievement of their strategic goals. This study employed the percentage, mean, and analysis of variance. Market risks such as equity price, interest rate, foreign exchange, and commodity risks has been perceived by the respondents as the most likely or has a significant likelihood of encountering this challenge. The assessment of risk management practices reflected a positive outlook, with respondents generally agreeing on the effective implementation of key practices like enterprise risk management, objective setting, internal environment, monitoring, event identification, and information communication.

Pest categorisation of Ceroplastes rubens.

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to conduct a pest categorisation of Ceroplastes rubens Maskell (Hemiptera: Coccidae), following the commodity risk assessments of Acer palmatum plants grafted on A. davidii and Pinus parviflora bonsai plants grafted on P. thunbergii from China, in which C. rubens was identified as a pest of possible concern to the European Union (EU). The pest, which is commonly known as the pink, red or ruby wax scale, originates in Africa and is highly polyphagous attacking plants from more than 193 genera in 84 families. It has been present in Germany since 2010 in a single tropical glasshouse. It is known to attack primarily tropical and subtropical plants, but also other host plants commonly found in the EU, such as Malus sylvestris, Prunus spp., Pyrus spp. and ornamentals. It is considered an important pest of Citrus spp. The pink wax scale reproduces mainly parthenogenetically, and it has one or two generations per year. Fecundity ranges from 5 to 1178 eggs. Crawlers settle usually on young twigs and later stages are sessile. All life stages of C. rubens egest honeydew on which sooty mould grows. Host availability and climate suitability suggest that parts of the EU would be suitable for establishment. Plants for planting and cut branches provide the main pathways for entry. Crawlers could spread over short distances naturally through wind, animals, humans or machinery. C. rubens could be dispersed more rapidly and over long distances via infested plants for planting for trade. The introduction of C. rubens into the EU could lead to outbreaks causing damage to orchards, amenity ornamental trees and shrubs. Phytosanitary measures are available to inhibit the entry and spread of this species. C. rubens satisfies the criteria that are within the remit of EFSA to assess for it to be regarded as a potential Union quarantine pest.

Pest categorisation of Coniella castaneicola.

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to conduct a pest categorisation of Coniella castaneicola (Ellis & Everh) Sutton, following commodity risk assessments of Acer campestre, A. palmatum, A. platanoides, A. pseudoplatanus, Quercus petraea and Q. robur plants from the UK, in which C. castaneicola was identified as a pest of possible concern to the EU. When first described, Coniella castaneicola was a clearly defined fungus of the family Schizoparmaceae, but due to lack of a curated type-derived DNA sequence, current identification based only on DNA sequence is uncertain and taxa previously reported to be this fungus based on molecular identification must be confirmed. The uncertainty on the reported identification of this species translates into uncertainty on all the sections of this categorisation. The fungus has been reported on several plant species associated with leaf spots, leaf blights and fruit rots, and as an endophyte in asymptomatic plants. The species is reported from North and South America, Africa, Asia, non-EU Europe and Oceania. Coniella castaneicola is not known to occur in the EU. However, there is a key uncertainty on its presence and geographical distribution worldwide and in the EU due to its endophytic nature, the lack of systematic surveys and possible misidentifications. Coniella castaneicola is not included in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2019/2072 and there are no interceptions in the EU. Plants for planting, fresh fruits and soil and other growing media associated with infected plant debris are the main pathways for its entry into the EU. Host availability and climate suitability in parts of the EU are favourable for the establishment and spread of the fungus. Based on the scarce information available, the introduction and spread of C. castaneicola in the EU is not expected to cause substantial impacts, with a key uncertainty. Phytosanitary measures are available to prevent its introduction and spread in the EU. Because of lack of documented impacts, Coniella castaneicola does not satisfy all the criteria that are within the remit of EFSA to assess for this species to be regarded as potential Union quarantine pest.

Commodity risk assessment of maple veneer sheets from Canada.

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to deliver a risk assessment on the likelihood of pest freedom from Union quarantine pests and pests subject to measures adopted pursuant to Article 30 of Regulation (EU) No 2016/2031 for the maple veneer sheets manufactured according to the process set out by Canada, with emphasis on the freedom from Davidsoniella virescens and Phytophthora ramorum (non-EU isolates). The assessment was conducted for veneer sheets of up to 0.7 mm and up to 6 mm thickness, taking into account the different phases in the veneer production in a systems approach. Some of those phases, taken alone, including the heat treatment of logs in a water bath, the cutting into thin veneer sheets and the final high heat drying of veneer sheets are expected to be effective against some of the pests, without uncertainties, making the system approach fully effective. The panel considers that no insects would survive cutting of logs into thin veneer sheets of 0.7 mm and that Xylella fastidiosa will not survive the temperatures in the water bath and final drying of veneers. The degree of pest freedom for the different groups of organisms is generally very high with slightly lower degree of pest freedom for veneer sheets of 6 mm thickness because of lower temperatures reached in the final drying of veneer sheets compared to thinner sheets. P. ramorum is not expected to survive the high heat drying of thin veneer sheets, but it may survive the lower temperatures inside thicker veneer sheets. The Expert Knowledge Elicitation (EKE) indicated, with 95% certainty, that between 9989 and 10,000 veneer sheets (thickness 6 mm) per 10,000 will be free from living P. ramorum. For D. virescens, the EKE indicated, with 95% certainty, that between 9984 and 10,000 veneer sheets (0.7 mm) per 10,000 and that between 9954 and 10,000 veneer sheets (6 mm) per 10,000 will be free from living inoculum. For other relevant groups of pests, the greatest likelihood of pest presence was observed for wood decay fungi. The EKE indicated, with 95% certainty, that between 9967 and 10,000 veneer sheets (0.7 mm) per 10,000 and that between 9911 and 10,000 veneer sheets (6 mm) per 10,000 will be free from living wood decay fungi.

Commodity risk assessment of Prunus avium plants from United Kingdom.

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as 'High risk plants, plant products and other objects'. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by plants of Prunus avium possibly grafted on rootstocks of either P. avium, P. canescens, P. cerasus, P. pseudocerasus or their hybrids imported from the UK, taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by the UK. All pests associated with the commodities were evaluated against specific criteria for their relevance for this opinion. Three quarantine pests Scirtothrips dorsalis, tobacco ringspot virus and tomato ringspot virus), one protected zone EU quarantine pest (Bemisia tabaci (European population), and three non- regulated pests (Colletotrichum aenigma, Eulecanium excrescens and Takahashia japonica) that fulfilled all relevant criteria were selected for further evaluation. The risk mitigation measures proposed in the technical Dossier from the UK were evaluated, taking into account the possible limiting factors. For these pests, expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom, taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. The degree of pest freedom varies among the pests evaluated, with Colletotrichum aenigma being the pest most frequently expected on the imported potted plants. The Expert Knowledge Elicitation indicated with 95% certainty that between 9971 and 10,000 plants per 10,000 would be free from the above-mentioned fungus.

Pest categorisation of Matsucoccus matsumurae.

The EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of Matsucoccus matsumurae (Hemiptera: Matsucoccidae), the Massonian pine bast scale, for the EU territory. This pest categorisation was initiated following the commodity risk assessment of artificially dwarfed plants from China consisting of Pinus parviflora (Japanese white pine) grafted on P. thunbergii (Japanese black pine) performed by EFSA, in which M. matsumurae was identified as a pest of possible concern. However, its identity is not firmly established due to uncertainty regarding its taxonomic relationship with Matsucoccus pini (Green), a species widespread in Europe. M. matsumurae occurs in western China and has been reported as a pest of P. massoniana (Chinese red pine) and P. thunbergii. These hosts occur in the EU as ornamental/amenity trees. Other scales in the Matsucoccus genus feed on a variety of Pinus species and the host range of M. matsumurae could be wider than is currently recorded. The scale has one or two generations per year. All stages occur on the branches and stems of hosts with developing nymphs and adult females feeding through the bark on host phloem vessels. Symptoms include the yellowing/browning of host needles, early needle drop, desiccation of shoots and bark necrosis. The most serious infestations occur in hosts that are 8-25 years old and there can be some host mortality. In principle, host plants for planting and plant products such as cut branches and wood with bark could provide entry pathways into the EU. However, prohibitions on the import of Pinus from non-European third countries regulate these pathways. In China, M. matsumurae occurs in regions with temperate humid conditions and hot summers. These conditions are also found in parts of southern EU. Were M. matsumurae to establish in the EU, it is conceivable that it could expand its host range; however, this remains uncertain. Some uncertainty exists over the magnitude of potential impacts. M. matsumurae satisfies the criteria that are within the remit of EFSA to assess for it to be regarded as a potential Union quarantine pest, assuming M. pini is not a synonym, which is a key uncertainty.

Commodity risk assessment of Prunus spinosa plants from United Kingdom.

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as 'High risk plants, plant products and other objects'. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by potted plants and bundles of bare-root plants or cell grown young plants or graftwood/budwood of Prunus spinosa imported from the United Kingdom, taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by the UK. All pests associated with the commodities were evaluated against specific criteria for their relevance for this opinion. One quarantine pest, Scirtothrips dorsalis, one protected zone quarantine pest Bemisia tabaci (European population) and one non-regulated pest, the scale Eulecanium excrescens, that fulfilled all relevant criteria were selected for further evaluation. The risk mitigation measures proposed in the technical Dossier from the UK were evaluated, taking into account the possible limiting factors. For these pests, expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom, taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. The degree of pest freedom varies among the pests evaluated, with E. excrescens being the pest most frequently expected on the imported potted plants. The Expert Knowledge Elicitation indicated with 95% certainty that between 9981 and 10,000 plants per 10,000 would be free from the above-mentioned scale.

Pest categorisation of Monema flavescens.

The EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of Monema flavescens (Lepidoptera, Limacodidae), following the commodity risk assessment of Acer palmatum plants grafted on A. davidii from China, in which M. flavescens was identified as a pest of possible concern to the European Union. This species can be identified by morphological taxonomic keys and by barcoding. The adults of the overwintering generation emerge from late June to late August. The eggs are laid in groups on the underside of the host-plant leaves, on which the larvae feed throughout their six to eight larval instars. Pupation occurs in ovoid cocoons at the junction between twigs and branches, or on the trunk. Overwintering occurs as fully grown larvae or prepupae in their cocoon. There are one or two generations per year. M. flavescens is polyphagous and feeds on broadleaves; it has been reported on 51 plant species belonging to 24 families. It mainly occurs in Asia (Bhutan, China, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Japan, Nepal, the Republic of Korea), Russia (Eastern Siberia) and Taiwan. It is also present in the USA (Massachusetts). The pest's flight capacities are unknown. The main pathway for entry and spread is plants for planting with cocoons attached. This is partially closed by prohibition of some hosts. In several EU member states climatic conditions are conducive for establishment and many host plants are widespread. Introduction of M. flavescens may result in defoliations influencing tree health and forest diversity. The caterpillars also have urticating spines affecting human health. Phytosanitary measures are available to reduce the likelihood of entry, establishment and spread, and there is a definite potential for classical biological control. Recognising that natural enemies prevent M. flavescens being regarded as a pest in Asia, there is uncertainty regarding the magnitude of potential impact in EU depending on the influence of natural enemies. All criteria assessed by EFSA for consideration as a potential quarantine pest are met.

Early Warning of Systemic Risk in Commodity Markets Based on Transfer Entropy Networks: Evidence from China.

This study aims to employ a causal network model based on transfer entropy for the early warning of systemic risk in commodity markets. We analyzed the dynamic causal relationships of prices for 25 commodities related to China (including futures and spot prices of energy, industrial metals, precious metals, and agricultural products), validating the effect of the causal network structure among commodity markets on systemic risk. Our research results identified commodities and categories playing significant roles, revealing that industry and precious metal markets possess stronger market information transmission capabilities, with price fluctuations impacting a broader range and with greater force on other commodity markets. Under the influence of different types of crisis events, such as economic crises and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the causal network structure among commodity markets exhibited distinct characteristics. The results of the effect of external shocks to the causal network structure of commodity markets on the entropy of systemic risk suggest that network structure indicators can warn of systemic risk. This article can assist investors and policymakers in managing systemic risk to avoid unexpected losses.

Commodity risk assessment of Sorbus aucuparia plants from the UK.

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as 'high risk plants, plant products and other objects'. Taking into account the available scientific information, including the technical information provided by the applicant country, this Scientific Opinion covers the plant health risks posed by the following commodities: Sorbus aucuparia bare-root plants and rooted plants in pots up to 7 years old and specimen trees in pots up to 15 years old imported into the EU from the UK. A list of pests potentially associated with the commodities was compiled. The relevance of any pest was assessed based on evidence following defined criteria. Three EU quarantine pests (Entoleuca mammata and Phytophthora ramorum (non-EU isolates), Erwinia amylovora), were selected for further evaluation. For two of the selected pests (E. mammata and P. ramorum), the risk mitigation measures implemented in the UK and specified in the technical dossier were evaluated taking into account the possible limiting factors. For these pests, an expert judgement is given on the likelihood of pest freedom taking into consideration the risk mitigation measures acting on the pest, including uncertainties associated with the assessment. The degree of pest freedom varies between the pests evaluated, with P. ramorum being the pest most frequently expected on the imported S. aucuparia plants. The Expert Knowledge Elicitation indicated, with 95% certainty, that between 9812 and 10,000 bare-root S. aucuparia plants per 10,000 will be free from P. ramorum.

Pest categorisation of Popillia quadriguttata.

The EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of Popillia quadriguttata (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae), following a commodity risk assessment of bonsai Pinus parviflora grafted onto P. thunbergii from China, in which P. quadriguttata was identified as a pest of possible concern for the territory of the European Union. This is a univoltine polyphagous pest that occurs in eastern Asia from Vietnam northwards through eastern China and Taiwan, South Korea and into Far East Russia. Hosts include species of fruit trees within the genera Malus and Prunus, trees of forestry and environmental importance such as Quercus and Ulmus, shrubs such as Wisteria, soft fruit such as Rubus, grasses, including amenity turf and field crops such as potatoes, maize and soybean. Adults feed on host leaves, tender stems, flower buds, flowers and fruits; larvae feed on host roots. In northern China P. quadriguttata is a major pest of soybean; in South Korea, P. quadriguttata is one of the most serious insect pests of golf course turf. P. quadriguttata could enter the EU on various pathways including infested soil and growing media accompanying host plants for planning. Biotic factors (host availability) and abiotic factors (climate suitability) suggest that large parts of the EU would be suitable for establishment. Local spread would be mainly via natural dispersal of adults. Long distance spread would be facilitated by the movement of eggs, larvae and pupae infesting soil especially with plants for planting; adults could spread on plants for planting without soil. Economic and or environmental impacts would be expected on a range of plants if P. quadriguttata were to establish in the EU. Phytosanitary measures are available to reduce the likelihood of its introduction. P. quadriguttata satisfies all of the criteria that are within the remit of EFSA to assess for it to be regarded as a potential Union quarantine pest.

Assessing Bitcoin, gold and gold-backed cryptocurrencies as safe havens for energy and agricultural commodities: insights from COVID-19, Russia–Ukraine conflict and SVB collapse

PurposeThis paper aims to investigate the safe haven feature of Bitcoin, gold and two gold-backed cryptocurrencies (DGX and PAXG) against energy and agricultural commodities (crude oil, natural gas and wheat) during the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia–Ukraine conflict and the Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) collapse.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use the threshold GARCH (T-GARCH)-asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation (ADCC) model to evaluate the asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation between the return series and compare the diversifying, hedging and safe-haven ability of Bitcoin, gold and the two gold-backed cryptocurrencies (DGX and PAXG) against financial swings in the commodity market during the COVID-19 outbreak, the Russian–Ukrainian military conflict and SVB collapse. The authors also calculate the hedging ratios (HR) and hedging effectiveness index (HE). The authors finally use the wavelet coherence (WC) approach to check our results’ robustness and further investigate the impact of the three crises on the relationship between Bitcoin, gold gold-backed cryptocurrencies and commodities.FindingsThe results show that PAXG serves as a strong hedging instrument while gold, Bitcoin and DGX act as strong diversifiers during normal times. During crises, gold outperforms Bitcoin as a diversifier and a safe haven against commodities. Gold-backed cryptocurrencies also exhibit strong performance as diversifiers and safe havens. HR results indicate that Bitcoin and DGX are more cost-effective for commodities risk mitigation than gold and PAXG. In terms of hedging effectiveness, gold and PAXG emerge as the best hedging instruments for commodities, while DGX is considered the worst one. Bitcoin shows superior hedging against oil compared to wheat and gas risks. Moreover, the results of the WC approach confirm those of the T-GARCH-ADCC results in both the short and long run.Originality/valueThis paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the diversification ability of gold, Bitcoin and gold-backed cryptocurrencies during different crises (the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia–Ukraine conflict and the SVB collapse). By taking into consideration gold-backed cryptocurrencies, the authors expand the understanding of safe havens beyond conventional assets.

Pest categorisation of Diaphania indica.

The EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of Diaphania indica (Lepidoptera: Crambidae), the cucumber moth for the territory of the European Union (EU), following the commodity risk assessment of Jasminum polyanthum from Uganda, in which D. indica was identified as a pest of possible concern to the European Union. D. indica is native to South Asian countries and is now distributed in tropical and subtropical areas of the Americas, Africa, Asia and Oceania. In the EU, D. indica occurs in Madeira (Portugal). It is a polyphagous pest, feeding on 16 genera in 6 plant families, primarily on plants of the Cucurbitaceae family. Important cucurbit hosts in the EU include cucumber (Cucumis sativus), melon (Cucumis melo), pumpkin (Cucurbita moschata), summer squash (Cucurbita pepo) and watermelon (Citrullus lanatus). Plants for planting, fruits and cut flowers provide potential pathways for entry into the EU. Climatic conditions and availability of host plants in southern EU countries would most probably allow this species to successfully establish and spread. Establishment could also occur in greenhouses in the northern parts of the EU. Economic impact in cultivated hosts, especially cucurbit crops is anticipated if establishment occurs. This insect is not listed in Annex II of Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2019/2072. Phytosanitary measures are available to reduce the likelihood of entry and further spread. D. indica meets the criteria that are within the remit of EFSA to assess for this species to be regarded as a potential Union quarantine pest.

Commodity risk assessment of Tilia cordata and Tilia platyphyllos plants from the UK.

The European Commission requested the EFSA Panel on Plant Health to prepare and deliver risk assessments for commodities listed in Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2018/2019 as 'High risk plants, plant products and other objects'. This Scientific Opinion covers plant health risks posed by plants of Tilia cordata and T. platyphyllos imported from the United Kingdom (UK) as: (a) bundles of budwood/graftwood; (b) 1- to 2-year-old whips, seedlings or transplants; (c) bundles of 1- to 2-year-old cell grown plants; (d) 1- to 7-year-old bare root single plants; and (e) up to 25-year-old single plants in pots, taking into account the available scientific information provided by the UK. A list of pests potentially associated with the commodities was compiled. The relevance of any pest was assessed based on evidence following defined criteria. None of the pests on the list fulfilled all relevant criteria and therefore none were selected for further evaluation. As a result, risk mitigation measures proposed in the technical dossier from the UK were listed, but not further evaluated.

Pest categorisation of Shirahoshizo flavonotatus.

The EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of Shirahoshizo patruelis (Voss, 1937) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae), following the commodity risk assessment of bonsai plants from China consisting of Pinus parviflora grafted on P. thunbergii, in which S. patruelis was identified as a pest of possible concern to the European Union (EU). This categorisation refers to S. flavonotatus, which is the pest's current valid scientific name. It is native to China and has never been recorded in the EU. It completes from 2 to 3 generations per year. Eggs are laid in cracks and crevices of trunks and branches with bark thickness of approximately 0.6-1.2 cm. The pest overwinters as an adult or as a mature larva under the bark. Plants for planting, wood with bark and wood products provide pathways for entry. Although the weevil has been reported to carry the nematode Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, it is not considered a vector. Climatic conditions and availability of host plants in some EU countries would allow S. flavonotatus to establish and spread. Impact on Pinus spp. is anticipated. Recognising that the weevil is reported to attack both weakened and healthy trees, there is uncertainty on the magnitude of impact. Its recorded capacity to attack non-Asian Pinus species also indicates its ability to adapt and expand the range of trees it can utilise as hosts, which could include European Pinus species. Phytosanitary measures are available to reduce the likelihood of entry and spread. S. flavonotatus meets the criteria that are within the remit of EFSA to assess for this species to be regarded as a potential Union quarantine pest.

Pest categorisation of Calepitrimerus baileyi.

The EFSA Panel on Plant Health performed a pest categorisation of Bailey's rust mite, Calepitrimerus baileyi Keifer (Acariformes: Eriophyidae), following the commodity risk assessment of Malus domestica plants from Türkiye performed by EFSA, in which C. baileyi was identified as a pest of possible concern to the European Union. This mite is not listed in Annex II of Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2019/2072. The eriophyid is known to occur in Africa, America, Asia, Europe (Greece and Serbia) and Oceania on Malus spp., which is the only confirmed host genus for C. baileyi. Plants for planting of Malus spp. are the main potential pathway for entry into the EU. However, plants for planting of the genus Malus Mill. are considered as high-risk plants (EU 2018/2019) and therefore prohibited from entering the EU unless granted a country-specific derogation. This is the case for the import of Malus spp. plants for planting from Serbia ((EU) 2020/1361 corrected by 2022/1309). Therefore, this derogation could provide a plausible entry pathway for C. baileyi into the EU. Climatic conditions and the ample availability of the host, Malus spp., in the EU are conducive for establishment, as proven by the occurrence of C. baileyi in Greece. However, the species is not reported as having an impact in Greece, despite reports of damage outside the EU. Measures to prevent further entry and spread of C. baileyi in the EU are available. C. baileyi satisfies all the criteria that are within the remit of EFSA to assess for it to be regarded as a potential Union quarantine pest. However, uncertainties about the distribution of C. baileyi within the EU and its impact on apples in the EU are considered key and affect the confidence of conclusions for this categorisation.

Commodity premia and risk management

AbstractWe examine the role of risk management in the context of commodity factor premia. Stopping losses in individual commodities effectively improves the average returns of long‐short commodity premia through persistent reduction in the frequency and severity of drawdowns. The magnitude of improvement is related to the quality of the signal, commodity return volatility, and autocorrelations, as well as transaction costs. The efficacy of a stop‐loss strategy can be enhanced by dynamically calibrating loss thresholds in accordance with realized volatility, and it performs best in high conviction weighting schemes. Overall, we highlight the pivotal role of risk management beyond volatility targeting and risk‐parity in harnessing commodity risk premia.