Commodity Price Shocks Research Articles

Macroeconomic effects of fiscal rules for a commodity-exporting economy: avoiding procyclical bias in Kazakhstan

ABSTRACT This paper investigates the macroeconomic consequences of an alternative fiscal rule in the context of commodity price shocks for a commodity-exporting country. We build a DSGE model to explain the business cycle in an oil-exporting economy, estimated using macroeconomic data from Kazakhstan. Our results demonstrate that when fiscal policy is procyclical in response to a transitory negative oil price shock, and if a majority of households are non-Ricardian, then a one standard deviation drop in oil prices causes an output decline of about 0.19%. In contrast, if the fiscal policy is countercyclical and conducted according to the structural balance fiscal rule, output increases by about 0.13% in response to the same shock. We also report that countercyclical fiscal policy is robustly effective when the monetary policy is characterized by its active inflation stabilization framework.

Accounting for real exchange rates in emerging economies: The role of commodity prices

A puzzling feature of international price data is that real exchange rates are much more volatile than macroeconomic fundamentals. This study empirically disaggregates international prices into their component parts to examine the key sources of high real exchange rate volatility with emphasis on Emerging Market Economies (EMEs). Using quarterly data over 1985–2015 for 28 countries, we document that 1) relative tradeable goods prices account for most of the observed volatility, 2) world commodity prices explain about 30% of real exchange rate fluctuations, and 3) commodity price shocks are associated with large and persistent real exchange rate appreciations in EMEs. Our results underscore the importance of commodity prices for the conduct of exchange-rate policy in EMEs.

DYNAMIC RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CAPITAL INFLOWS AND BANK LENDING: THE ROLE OF COMMODITY PRICE AND GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKET SHOCKS

This paper investigates the dynamic relationship between capital inflows and bank lending in Indonesia. We use a Structural Vector AutoRegression (SVAR) model that allows exogenous international commodity prices and global financial market fluctuations to influence capital inflows. We find that commodity price shocks are more important as compared to global financial shocks in explaining the variance of capital inflows in the long run. Furthermore, shocks from capital inflows lead to a change in bank lending allocation across economic sectors.

Commodity price shocks and the gender wage gap: Evidence from the Metal Mining Prices Super-Cycle in Chile

This paper analyzes the local impact of a natural resource shock on female and male wages as well as the gender wage gap. We contrast three hypotheses using the Dutch disease theory and gender-based segregation patterns in the labor market. Using household level data aggregated at a municipality-level from 2000 to 2015, we examine the case of Chile that was exposed to the Metal Mining Prices Super-Cycle between 2003 and 2011. We exploit the spatial heterogeneity in the exposure to the shock, and find a positive and significant impact on wages for both men and women. We also provide evidence of a significant reduction in the gender wage gap in municipalities more exposed to the commodity shock in comparison to municipalities with less exposure. In addition, we use spatial econometric specifications and find evidence suggesting the existence of spatial spillovers between neighboring municipalities.

Distressed Debt Management & Lessons Learnt Through Case Management: Banking Industry in Kenya

Deteriorating and troubled assets must be subjected to enhanced risk oversight and monitoring to ensure that appropriate action is taken in a timely manner, allowing a high level of obligor turnaround success and reduced risk of loss for the Lender/Financial Institution/Bank. It’s important for a Bank to harmonize Distressed Debt Management approach, called the Watch List (WL) Framework, and details the requirements to ensure timely adherence to regulatory requirements. The impairment requirements of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS 9) Financial Instruments, effective as of 1 January 2018, are based on an Excepted Credit Loss (ECL) model and replace the IAS 39 Financial Instruments; Recognition and Measurement incurred loss model. IFRS 9, recognizes impairment allowances on either a 12-month or lifetime ECL basis, dependent on whether there was a significant increase in credit risk (SICR) since initial recognition (being either asset origination date or ‘base date’, whichever is most recent). The measurement of ECL reflects both a probability-weighted outcome and the time value of money, using the best available forward-looking information. There should be relevant policies that would require to be read in conjunction with relevant manuals and Accounting Standards. It’s equally important to detail the monitoring objectives for consistent management of wholesale impairment and the provisions necessary to meet regulatory requirements. It is imperative that when dealing with Distressed Debt/Assets, that attention is given to the requirements detailed under Conduct Risk and that client confidentiality is maintained. Mostly, business failure is a result of financial and/or economic distress. A firm in financial distress experiences a shortfall in cash flow needed to meet its debt obligations. Its business model does not necessarily have fundamental problems and its products are often attractive. In contrast, firms in economic distress have unsustainable business models and will not be viable without asset restructuring. In practice, many distressed firms suffer from a combination of the two. Many factors contribute to the high number of business failures. Some common failures include and are not limited to the below. Poor operating performance and high financial leverage. A firm's poor operating performance may result from many factors, such as poorly executed acquisitions, competition, overcapacity, new channels of competition within an industry (e.g., retail), commodity price shocks (e.g., energy), and cyclical industries (e.g., airlines). High financial leverage exacerbates the effect of poor operating performance on the likelihood of corporate failure. Lack of technological innovation. Technological innovation creates negative shocks to businesses that do not innovate. The arrival of a new technology often threatens the survival of firms that possess related, yet less competitive, technologies. There needs for a business to strategically position itself in the market through digital transformation in its processes, product development and operations Liquidity and funding shock. In periods of weak credit supply, some businesses are unable to roll over maturing debt because of illiquidity in credit markets. Relatively high new business formation rates in certain periods. New business formation is usually based on optimism about the future. But new businesses fail with far greater frequency than do more seasoned entities, and the failure rate can be expected to increase in the years immediately following a surge in new business activity. Deregulation of key industries. Deregulation removes the protective cover of a regulated industry (e.g., airlines, financial services, HealthCare, energy) and fosters larger numbers of entering and exiting firms. Competition is far greater in a deregulated environment. Unexpected liabilities. Businesses may fail because off-balance sheet contingent liabilities suddenly become material on-balance sheet liabilities.

Commodity price shocks and the balance sheet effect in emerging economies

Commodity price shocks and the balance sheet effect in emerging economies

Foreign exchange intervention for commodity booms and busts

While the conventional policy prescription for dealing with commodity price shocks is the adoption of a flexible exchange rate regime, a view popularized by Friedman (1953), in practice many emerging economies decide to intervene in the foreign exchange market. In this paper, we evaluate the optimal exchange rate policy response to commodity price shocks in a small open economy model with learning-by-doing (LBD) externalities. We find that the optimal policy response to a commodity boom involves a large and sustained increase in the stock of foreign exchange reserves aimed at stabilizing the real exchange rate and tradable production. Moreover, the optimal policy resembles the actual dynamics of foreign exchange reserves observed in many emerging commodity-exporting economies during recent episodes of commodity booms. We also show that solely relying on monetary policy for dealing with commodity price shocks provides limited macroeconomic stabilization gains, as the policy rate is an ineffective instrument for addressing LBD externalities.

Time-Frequency connectedness between developing countries in the COVID-19 pandemic: The case of East Africa

<abstract><p>Models of crisis prediction continue to gain traction with the increased frequency of global crisis such as the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Moreover, the connectedness of financial markets appears to be of central importance in determining how shocks spill through asset market linkages. The study thus applies the time-frequency connectedness measures of Diebold & Yilmaz (2012) and Baruník & Křehlík (2018) to examine return and volatility connectedness dynamics in East African Community (EAC) member states. The study found a strong interdependence among the considered EAC markets as indicated by the high values of total return and volatility spillover indices. This high degree of interdependence is reflected in both static time and frequency domain return and volatility connectedness, especially at the longer term frequency bands, an indication that return and volatility shocks are persistent. This result lends further support to existing evidence on the suitability of the EAC regional economic integration, including the possible eventual establishment of a monetary union. In addition, the dynamic spillover analysis indicates that connectedness among these EAC markets is highly time-varying and appears to be amplified during global crisis events such as the European debt crisis, Kenyan elections, commodity price shocks and the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the results suggest that relative to periods of domestic turbulence, financial market connectedness in the EAC is more likely to get amplified during periods of external global shocks. The study also contributes to emergent literature on connectedness among financial markets during the COVID-19 pandemic. Importantly, the study finds that the COVID-19 pandemic had a significant effect on all the considered EAC markets although the magnitude and direction of impact varies across markets and countries. In addition, the study finds that Brent Crude oil prices are a significant source of return and volatility spillovers to EAC markets especially during crisis periods.</p></abstract>

Commodity Price Shocks and Macroeconomic Dynamics

Commodity Price Shocks and Macroeconomic Dynamics

Global Commodity Markets, Chinese Demand for Maize, and Deforestation in Northern Myanmar

This paper makes a significant contribution to understanding the logic of deforestation in Northern Myanmar and connects global trends and regional political economy with local environmental changes. Methodologically, through a combination of remote sensing GIS analysis, for which we use a newly available Myanmar Forest Change dataset produced by TerraPulse and the Smithsonian Conservation Biology Institute, as well as on-the-ground field research observations and interviews with farmers, this paper examines how the expansion of maize plantations in the northern part of Myanmar has implications for deforestation in the region. It argues that a combination of global commodity price shock around 2011–2012 plus easy market access to China generated strong incentives for local farmers to increase the cultivation of maize. The paper contributes to how we understand the environmental impacts of Chinese demands for agricultural products in Southeast Asia.

The impact of the OPEC announcement on the oil companies' share prices

Purpose: This study aims at verifying the negative impact of the announcement made by OPEC to maintain oil production - on March 5, 2020 - on the oil companies´ share prices in the main countries of Latin America and the BRIC´s.Design/methodology/approach: Such objective is verified through an event whose final sample consists of 29 oil companies of Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Russia, India and China.Findings: H1- OPEC announcement negatively affects the share price of oil companies- is not confirmed. However, H2 – OPEC announcement differently affects the share price of oil companies in Latin America and other emerging countries that make up the BRIC - is confirmed.Research limitations/implications: The sample considers only oil companies operating in the oil and integrated gas segments, as well as oil and gas exploration and production.Practical implications: These results expand the understanding of the impact of oil commodity price shocks on the share prices of oil companies in emerging countries, during the Covid-19 pandemic.Originality/value: Verification of a positive shock impact on the supply or the reduction in the oil price on the return on shares of BRIC´s companies and among other Latin American countries, during Covid-19.

Income inequality and oil resources: Panel evidence from the United States

The resource curse is sometimes associated with poor resource-rich countries. However, using panel evidence from the United States, we find that the resource curse is also prevalent in a wealthy resource-rich country. This study investigates the impact of oil resources on income inequality, with a particular focus on distinguishing between the effects from oil abundance (i.e. production) versus oil dependency (i.e. consumption). We observe contrasting non-monotonic outcomes from oil abundance in comparison to oil dependency. For oil abundance, states with low oil production will have less inequality if they increase oil production, and states with high oil production will have increased income inequality if they increase production. The opposite holds true for oil dependency. The findings suggest several channels of concern. For example, oil-rich states are more vulnerable to rent-seeking behaviour as oil production and oil revenues increase, which can adversely affect the income distribution gap. On the other hand, oil-dependent states are more likely to be affected by commodity price shocks which can increase income inequality.

The Pass-Through of International Commodity Price Shocks to Producers’ Welfare: Evidence from Ethiopian Coffee Farmers

Abstract International commodity price shocks may have large impacts on producers in developing countries. In this paper, a unique household panel data from Ethiopia is utilized to show that a decrease in international coffee price has strong pass-through to the consumption of households that rely on coffee production as a main source of livelihood. It also results in decreases in on-farm labor supply (particularly male labor supply) and induces reallocation of labor towards non-coffee fields, but has negligible effect on off-farm labor supply. The decline in consumption has significant consequences on child malnutrition: children born in coffee-producing households during low coffee price periods have lower weight-for-age and weight-for-height z-scores than their peers born in non-coffee households.

Rebel Primary Commodity Markets, Price Shocks, and Supplier Victimization

AbstractRebel organizations often benefit from the sale of primary commodities. However, producing these commodities may require labor from noncombatants. Rebels provide security and payment to civilian suppliers, but their ability to do so depends on consistent profits. How, then, do price shocks to labor-intensive primary commodities undermine rebel–supplier relationships? I hypothesize that negative commodity price shocks lead cash-strapped rebels to ensure suppliers’ loyalty by substituting coercion for positive incentives. Conversely, states seek to limit rapid increases in rebels’ profit while avoiding the reputational costs of civilian victimization. Thus, victimization of rebel suppliers from groups such as pro-government paramilitaries is hypothesized to increase after positive commodity price shocks. I test these hypotheses with a new dataset covering 1999–2007 that combines monthly US STRIDE (System to Retrieve Information from Drug Evidence) data on cocaine price with municipal-level data from the Colombian Centro Nacional de Memoria Histórica about the FARC (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia) and paramilitary groups’ use of civilian victimization.

The distributional dimension of the resource curse: Commodity price shocks and income inequality

How does high dependence on natural resources affect income inequality? Surprisingly little is known about the impact of dependence on primary goods on income distribution. Building on insights from the resource curse literature, this paper studies the relationship between income shocks through changes in commodity prices and income inequality in a panel of 80 countries from 1990 to 2016. We analyze differentiated effects of commodity price shocks depending on the type of commodity (labor vs. capital-intensive). We also study differences across world regions and explore potential mechanisms by looking at different types of inequality (pay-driven vs. capital-rents-driven). Results show that commodity price shocks have an impact on income inequality. However, this impact depends on the type of commodity and inequality.

Analysis of External Debt Sustainability in Mongolia: an Estimated DSGE Approach

In this study, we assess the effects of the structural shocks on the external debt sustainability in Mongolia, based on an estimated small open economy (SOE) dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with the traded, the non-traded, and the mining sectors. The impulse response results show that the traded sector’s productivity shock, the commodity price shock, the mining output shock, and the foreign interest-rate shock have a decreasing effect on external debt accumulation in Mongolia, whereas the non-traded sector’s productivity shock, the household preference shock, and the government spending shock have an increasing effect on the same. Furthermore, we assess Mongolia’s external debt sustainability under the COVID−19 pandemic shock. Under our assumed pandemic scenario, Mongolia’s external debt will increase by 30% from its steady state over the next 10–28 quarters. Our recommended solution in this study is to develop the traded sector, instead of the mining sector, to maintain sustainability of the external debt and to decrease vulnerability of the economy.

Global liquidity and commodity market interactions: Macroeconomic effects on a commodity exporting emerging market

This paper examines the effects of commodity demand and supply shocks as well as international liquidity shocks on the small open economy of Brazil using an SVAR model. The paper highlights the importance of modelling both types of shocks in the commodity sector. Including only commodity prices overstates the effect of commodity price shocks on the output of Brazil. Commodity demand shocks are much larger than commodity supply shocks in the long run. Including commodity demand and international liquidity also reduces the impact of commodity price shocks on the interest rate made available to Brazil in international capital markets. There is little evidence of Dutch disease for Brazil. However, our results show that Brazil is vulnerable to external shocks.

Asymmetric Non-Commodity Output Responses to Commodity Price Shocks

Asymmetric Non-Commodity Output Responses to Commodity Price Shocks

Commodity Shocks and Exchange Rate Regimes: Implications for the Caribbean Commodity Exporters

Declining commodity prices during mid-2014-2016 posed significant challenges to commodity-exporting economies. The severe terms of trade shock associated with a sharp fall in world commodity prices have raised anew questions about the viability of pegged exchange rate regimes. More recently, the COVID-19 pandemic and the measures needed to contain its spread have been associated with a significant disruption in several economic sectors, in particular, travel, tourism, and hospitality industry, adding to the downward pressure on commodity prices, a sharp fall in foreign exchange earnings, and depressed economic activity in most commodity exporters. This paper reviews country experiences with different exchange rate regimes in coping with commodity price shocks and explores the role of flexible exchange rates as a shock absorber, analyzing the macroeconomic impact of adverse term-of-trade shocks under different regimes using event study and panel vector autoregression techniques. It also analyzes, conceptually and empirically, policy and technical considerations in making exchange rate regime choices and discusses the supporting policies that should accompany a given regime choice to make that choice sustainable. It offers lessons that could be helpful to the Caribbean commodity-exporters.

Housing and Commodity Investment Booms in a Small Open Economy

We add a housing sector to the Reserve Bank of Australia's small open‐economy model to explore the effect of commodity price shocks on housing investment. The model predicts that housing investment booms may follow commodity booms. Commodity booms have a persistent effect on housing services price inflation and they ‘crowd out’ housing investment. When the commodity boom ends, the combination of higher prices and falling interest rates induces a significant housing investment response. The model attributes a significant share of the recent increase in housing investment in Australia directly to falling commodity prices.