Commercial Real Estate Investment Research Articles

Location density, systematic risk, and cap rates: Evidence from REITs

AbstractA property's location is often considered to be the ultimate determinant of its investment performance. But how exactly does a property's location influence its risk and return? We focus on the effects of location density on the risk and return of commercial real estate investments. We do this by studying the geographical characteristics of the property portfolios of U.S. equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). We show that REITs with property holdings in high‐density locations experience higher rental growth and carry higher systematic risk than their otherwise comparable peers in low‐density locations. Consistent with those higher rental growth rates, high‐density REITs also have lower implied cap rates. Our results suggest that location density is an important determinant of REIT performance outcomes, implying that geographical characteristics can drive investment risk and return across commercial real estate markets.

Real Estate Insights The human factor: the “unknown unknowns” in the real estate development process

PurposeVolatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity (VUCA) are terms the military have coined to describe the environment they often operate in. This paper examines how this decision-making framework can be used to better inform real estate investment and development. In celebration of this journal's 40th anniversary, we also explore how VUCA can be related to and expand on the teachings of Dr. James A. Graaskamp who published his seminal piece on the Fundamentals of Real Estate Development (1981) the same year. In that piece, he highlights the importance of paying attention to the human factor, the consumers of real estate.Design/methodology/approachThis is a thought piece on an alternative decision-making framework that can help capture the dynamic environment that commercial real estate investors and developers are currently working in. VUCA captures the difficulty of predicting the future in a world of accelerating, unpredictable change. This is particularly important in today's rapidly changing world caused not only by the current COVID-19 pandemic but also the exponential growth of the proptech industry as well as the increasing risks and opportunities associated with climate change that continues to impact the built environment.FindingsThis is not a traditional research project with empirical findings. We are presenting an alternative framework for thinking about making investment decisions in these current volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous times today and in the future. In addition, the importance of multidisciplinary training and the human factor are stressed.Research limitations/implicationsThere are no limitations to this research as it is the ideas of the authors. Implications are to help real estate investors, developers and educators better understand the environment that they are working in.Practical implicationsVUCA captures better the dynamic nature of real estate investments compared to traditional analysis. It helps one better analyze the risks and returns but also to acknowledge that there is a lot you cannot predict and there are many exogenous variables that can, at times, completely change the rules of the game. Flexibility and adaptability are essential tools for working in a VUCA environment. In addition, the human factor plays an increasingly important role and real estate investors and developers that clearly understand this and focus on the consumer will likely be more successful.Originality/valueWe believe that this is the first time that VUCA has been used in the real estate academic literature.

Performance of commercial and residential real estate investments in Ibadan property market, Nigeria

PurposeThis study examined the performance of commercial and residential real estate investments in the Ibadan property market to provide information for investment decisions.Design/methodology/approachThe study used a mixed research design (qualitative and quantitative). Data were obtained employing in-depth interviews with randomly selected sixteen estate surveyors and valuers practising in the Ibadan property market. Data for the study were analysed using the phenomenological thematic content analysis. Similarly, data on rental and capital values were translated to income, capital and holding period returns. The Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin (KPSS) and Philip–Perron (PP) models were used for unit root analysis. Ordinary least square (OLS) regression model was used to test for inflation-hedging characteristics, and the Granger causality tests were carried out to analyse the causal relationship between the variables.FindingsThe study revealed that the Ibadan property market is still immature. For the return components, the study found that the Ibadan property market provided mean holding period returns of 10.82%, 14.31 and 8.29% for office, shop and residential property types, respectively. The study also revealed that the selected property types are perverse hedges against inflation. Similarly, the study showed a unidirectional causal relationship between inflation and returns on the selected property types.Practical implicationsResults of this study revealed the peculiar nature of the Ibadan property market; findings from the survey can be used as a guide for investment decisions by foreign and domestic investors. Shrewd investors can take advantage of the high returns provided by the real estate assets in the Ibadan property market (by investing in the property market) to obtain high returns and expand their investment portfolio.Originality/valueThis study is the first to examine, in an eclectic and comparative context, the performance of commercial and residential properties in the Ibadan property market from the perspective of its market maturity level, returns profile, as well as its inflation-hedging characteristics. Findings from the study will equip both individual and institutional investors with valuable information for investment decisions.

MEASURING PERFORMANCE OF RISK-RETURN IN RESIDENTIAL AND COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE INVESTMENTS IN SOUTH-SOUTH, NIGERIA

The study measures the risk-return performance of residential and commercial real estate investments in South-South, Nigeria from 2009 to 2018. The study adopted the survey research design and purposive sampling technique was used to select estate surveying and valuation firms. Data was analysed using mean total returns, standard deviation and analysis of variance. The test of the first hypothesis indicates that residential real estate investment in Port Harcourt has the highest mean total return and performed better than Calabar and Uyo and implies that total returns of residential real estate investments are significantly different in the study area. For commercial property, Uyo outperformed that of Calabar and Port Harcourt in terms of return. The second hypothesis results indicate that location of property is a significant determinant of risk. The result shows that the mean risk in Port Harcourt for residential real estate investment is significantly different from the risk in Calabar and Uyo. This implies that there is significant difference between risks of residential properties in the study area. For commercial property investment risk, the result shows the risks of investment in offices are higher than shops. For location, Uyo commercial properties produced the highest risk.

Pension fund investment in commercial real estate: a qualitative analysis of decision-making and investment practices in Brazil

ABSTRACT Existing research has shown that pension funds have been adopting financialized real estate governance models and investment practices more concerned with the short-term risk–return performance of the portfolio. This study of the property portfolios of Brazil’s largest pension funds shows that financialization is a powerful force but does not fully explain pension fund commercial real estate investment and management practices which are strongly predicated upon three guiding principles: (1) an awareness of the constraints posed by pension liabilities; (2) a focus on asset-specific competences to increase returns; and (3) a prioritization of in-house investment management. These practices are, however, challenged by a recent Monetary Board decision to ban direct property investment by pension funds and place their resources at the disposal of the financial industry.

Three Decades of Global Institutional Investment in Commercial Real Estate

Alternative assets represent an increasing share of pension fund assets, and real estate is a cornerstone of that allocation. This article investigates the trends in pension fund real estate investments over the past 3 decades, both in private and in public real estate, focusing on the performance of the asset class for the ultimate asset owners. The development of pension fund allocations to real estate differs across regions, with allocations increasing in Canada, stationary in the US, and shrinking in Europe. Slightly more than 10% of the real estate exposure is through publicly listed vehicles. Within the real estate portfolio, the authors observe a continuing increase in the use of external fund managers. Investment costs are stationary, with pension funds in the US structurally paying more to their external private real estate managers than their peers in Canada and Europe. Costs relating to public real estate are more equal across regions. In terms of performance, the authors observe rather stable total returns for both private and listed real estate over the past 3 decades, contrasting volatile performance of private equity and infrastructure. Intermediated investment management for private real estate is costly, leading to disproportionately lower net returns. <b>Key Findings</b> ▪ Current pension fund allocation to real estate is 8.3%, on average, with a 90/10 split between private real estate and public real estate. ▪ Pension funds deploy a wide range of real estate allocation strategies, with intermediation growing in popularity over the past decades. ▪ Real estate has provided stable returns over the past decades, with gross returns similar to stocks, and net returns in between bonds and stocks.

Performance of Foreign Direct Investment in Commercial Real Estate in Nigeria from 2006-2017

Performance of FDI in commercial real estate in Nigeria when compared to international benchmark figures is yet to be established and documented in literature. The aim of the study was to appraise the performance of FDI in commercial real estate in Nigeria from 2006 to 2017 in a bid to empirically assist foreign direct investors’ decisions on investing in the Nigerian commercial real estate sector. The objectives were to; ascertain and compare returns from foreign direct investments in commercial real estate in Nigeria with international benchmark; and to examine how FDI tax responsibilities in Nigeria compare with the global benchmark rate. The study adopted ex post facto research design, and the unit of analysis was selected foreign controlled commercial real estate investments in Lagos and Abuja. The study adopted the Jones Lang LaSalle benchmark settings for commercial real estate performance indicator due to its empiricism from an international perspective where yield is 5.7%, capital growth is 7% and rental growth is 5.5%. Data were collected on rental values, capital values, tax responsibilities, and was analyzed using T-test. The study showed a yield of 4%, (t = 6.364; p &lt; 0.05) and a capital growth rate of 21%, (t = 1.592; p &gt; 0.05), while there was no negative variation in FDI tax responsibilities in Nigeria and international benchmark rate cap of 30% (t = .8666; p &gt; 0.05). The study recommended that property managers should practice tenant mix and flexible leases and spaces.

Can the Textual Tone in REIT Financial Statements Improve the Information Environment for Commercial Real Estate Investors? An Investigation

The SEC requires publicly traded REITs to discuss commercial real estate market conditions in their financial statements in order to provide REIT investors with decision-relevant information. We investigate whether the textual tone in REIT financial statements (10-K/10-Q) can be used to predict future commercial real estate returns. In our empirical investigation, we focus on forward-looking tone, i.e., tone that cannot be explained by a REIT’s past performance. We extract textual tone from quarterly REIT financial statements over the period from 2002 to 2017 by using both a generic finance dictionary and a new, REIT-specific dictionary. We then employ a regime-switching methodology to assess the informative value of forward-looking tone for commercial real estate returns in the next quarter. We find that in periods of poorly performing real estate markets the forward-looking tone in REIT financial statements predicts total returns in the next quarter. This effect is driven by capital returns and is most pronounced for apartment and retail. Our findings suggest that the tone in REIT financial statements can help improve the information environment for commercial real estate investors.

Added value of sites suitable for sustainable office development

Abstract Valuations of real estate are widely used for various purposes and it relied always upon the financial and other markets. Valuation methodology is based on the operation of the free market economy and the real estate properties. The issue of certified properties is relatively new in the field of real estate valuation and is not sufficiently explored. Certified buildings are preferred by major corporate tenants with international field of activity who often have ethical rules for sustainable development. Therefore, certified properties are attractive to international commercial real estate investors who have higher purchasing power and are willing to pay a higher purchase price. Sustainable property certification is an element affecting the market value of the property. The purpose of this presented research is to quantify the impact of property certification on the value of office properties in Prague and subsequently to determine the impact of sustainability certificates on the market value of the land by using basic valuation techniques. The outcome of the project could be used by real estate valuation experts as a guideline to consider the future project certification and its impact on the land market value.

Urban Regeneration and the Perceptions of Commercial Real Estate Market Participants: The Case of the Johannesburg Inner City

Many factors contribute to urban decay in inner city locations as real estate investments fall and industries disappear or move to more attractive locations. In South Africa, the attainment of democracy and the resultant ‘white flight’ in favour of decentralised locations precipitated urban decay. Commercial real estate has spill-over effects on foot-count and absorption rates on inner city real estate. It helps stimulate redevelopment of other property types such as apartments, which contribute to the overall economic revitalisation of the decayed inner city. This paper examines the challenges faced by real estate investors in regeneration projects in Johannesburg Inner City (JIC). The paper uses an exploratory qualitative research design, where interviews were conducted with commercial real estate participants in JIC. The paper identified five challenges faced by commercial real estate market participants regarding investments and operations: building acquisition, physical public infrastructure, homelessness, lack of financing, and crime. An understanding of these challenges faced by commercial real estate market participants is valuable for policy-makers trying to attract commercial real estate investments to the inner city. Successful regeneration projects will promote urban renewal and revitalise economic activities in the decaying regions. The identified challenges will illuminate municipal programs and policies needed for the development of inner cities.

Exploring investment paradigm in urban office space management: perspectives from coworking space investors in Nigeria

PurposeCoworking space had been a trajectory in the commercial space operation and management globally. Commercial coworking/tenancy space is confronted with an unexpected shift. This paper aims to examine the peculiarity and investment characteristics of flexible office space and the post-COVID implications on coworking office space practice and investment. This is with a view toward providing investors with an understanding of the dynamics underpinning flexible office space investment in the Nigerian emerging property market.Design/methodology/approachThis study adopted a qualitative research approach. Open-ended interview questions were used to solicit information from nine coworking space operators in the urban property market of Ibadan, Nigeria. The structured interview data were analyzed using Atlas.ti – a computer-aided qualitative data analysis software.FindingsThe findings show that the factors influencing demand for flexible office space in the study area include flexibility, affordability, cost-effectiveness, entrepreneurship motivations and opportunity for risk sharing. The results also revealed that coworkers are predominantly mobile individuals who require a workstation away from their homes or a traditional office setup. Management challenges include deficient infrastructure, low level of awareness, stealing and high cost of operations. The impact of COVID-19 includes a drop in patronage, rent refunds, changes in working pattern and job loss, restriction to online and remote operation, the extra cost of putting prevention measures in place, changes in tenancy contract and drops in return on investment.Practical implicationsThis study has implications for investors in commercial space occupation and leases in comparable developing economies.Originality/valueThe novelty of this paper lies in its relevance with the emergent behavioral changes, orchestrated from the novel COVID-19, which compels reevaluation of workplace practices and investment for economic improvement, especially as it relates to commercial real estate investment.

How will today’s workforce change the geographical footprint of tomorrow ’s workspace? The ‘Hub and Spoke’ model: Case studies

COVID-19 has forced companies to introduce remote working practices at a wholescale level, a trend that had slowly been increasing over the last decade. Both positives and negatives have emerged as we all wrestle with the implications of removing the office from our daily routine. For the majority of the workforce, the lack of a long commute has been a huge benefit to the employee from a cost and time perspective, but is that reason enough to envisage a radically altered office experience? As companies look at new workplace strategies that allow them to retain the best staff, we anticipate a period of test, measure, learn and adapt from the majority of progressive corporate real estate (CRE) teams. They have to balance the need to retain their corporate culture and identity, imbue a sense direction and a positive sense of collaboration while hybrid working experiments are carried out. One solution that many clients and contacts have referred to within their testing strategy is the dispersed portfolio model, or ‘Hub and Spoke’. The Instant Group and its partners in the project, Hickey &amp; Associates, explored the impact of a people-focused, agile disaggregated portfolio. The aim was to understand what benefits could exist to both the employee and employer by adopting such a strategy and what factors should be considered by a company looking to test such a model. The findings showed the types of location that appear highly suited to satellite offices, alongside the benefits from a cost perspective the employer could expect to see. Surprisingly, large time savings can also be achieved by employees on an annual basis; it is not uncommon for those used to commuting an hour and a half a day to save over 35 standard working days a year. While these outcomes are positive, difficulties do exist — not only from a business perspective in ensuring senior stakeholders are spread across the portfolio, but also from a purely real estate perspective. In many of the locations highlighted, supply of quality office stock is limited, and future developments are far less prevalent than in major cities. This suggests that while the methodology stacks up on paper, there will be practical challenges for businesses that are slower to react, unless we see a major change in commercial real estate investment and development.

Real Estate and Construction Sector Dynamics Over the Business Cycle

This paper explores the property prices and investment dynamics over the business cycle when there is competition between households and firms for real estate. We introduce a construction sector into an RBC framework, which uses land, capital and labour to produce both commercial and residential real estate. This market structure activates a real estate substitution channel, where an increase in demand for residential real estate also increases the cost of producing commercial structures, which crowds out commercial real estate investment. In general, we find that the residential/commercial land allocation acts as an anchor for the allocation of its real estate investment counterpart; however, there are notable separations, particularly following the financial crisis where there was a simultaneous fall in residential and commercial investment. Our results indicate that whilst residential real estate prices were predominately driven by increases in its demand in the buildup to the financial crisis, the fall in demand for commercial real estate played a significant role in generating price falls for both types of real estate in the aftermath. Furthermore, falls in the overall supply of real estate played an important role in reducing real estate investment which put upward pressure on prices throughout the past two decades.

International Real Estate Review

Financial globalization has enabled investors to allocate some of their portfolio assets to foreign countries and alternative assets. This environment has also created an increase in investment in international real estate especially in the emerging markets. In this study, we investigate whether foreign real estate investors outperform domestic investors after controlling for property specific characteristics. Using property level transaction data of Korea from 2003 to 2016, we also examine the characteristics of commercial real estate investment associated with the probability of an acquirer being a foreign investor versus a domestic investor. The binary and multinomial probability models are used to test our research hypothesis and the structural equation model is applied to find the determinants of the internal rate of return. The result reveals foreign investors perform better than domestic investors in a holding period analysis. Furthermore, the findings support that foreign direct and indirect real estate investments are statistically significant to the age of the building, corporate bond and exchange rates, growth domestic product growth, and the equity market movement in the domestic market.

The impact of Hurricanes on the value of commercial real estate

Commercial real estate investors prefer coastal, gateway, markets for liquidity, demand density, and durable returns. Yet, these areas are more vulnerable to the effects of climate change from more intense and frequent weather events such as hurricanes and typhoons as well as to gradual changes such as sea-level rise. Recognition is growing of the risks that these events pose to investment performance, but little is known about how this risk has impacted property values and returns when an event such as a hurricane occurs. This is the first study to analyze the impact on property values and returns from hurricanes causing the most significant damage by value over the past 30-plus years throughout the nation. Using individual property data from the National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries database, we find a significant impact on the value and rates of return, after accounting for any additional capital expenditures for repairs, for properties that are in areas impacted by a hurricane, relative to areas that were not impacted by a hurricane. These impacts vary by property type and can last for several years after the hurricane hit land in the area.

Formal Proof of Proposition 3 in The WALE byIncome: Insights for Investors and Practitioners in Commercial Real Estate Investments and Valuations.

Formal Proof of Proposition 3 in The WALE byIncome: Insights for Investors and Practitioners in Commercial Real Estate Investments and Valuations.

Location Density, Systematic Risk, and Cap Rates: Evidence from REITs

A property's location is often considered to be the ultimate determinant of its investment performance. But how exactly does a property's location influence its risk and return? We focus on the effects of location density on the risk and return of commercial real estate investments. We do this by studying the geographical characteristics of the property portfolios of U.S. equity REITs. We show that REITs with property holdings in high-density locations experience higher rental growth and carry higher systematic risk than their otherwise comparable peers in low-density locations. Consistent with higher rental growth rates, high-density REITs also have lower implied cap rates. Our results suggest that location density is an important determinant of REIT performance outcomes, implying that geographical characteristics can drive investment risk and return across commercial real estate markets.

A multicriteria approach for rating investments in commercial real estate

AbstractThe commercial real estate (CRE) sector concerns a diverse set of actors that specialize in real estate activities, such as brokerage, valuation, construction, and asset management. CRE activity is a key indicator for the level of corporate growth and the economic development of a country. However, investments in CRE face a volatile global environment, which is characterized by deep uncertainties and cyclical behavior. In this context, decision support tools that facilitate the monitoring and assessment of CRE investments are of major importance for various stakeholders, including investors and policy makers. The objective of this study is to present a comprehensive approach for assessing CRE investments based on a multicriteria evaluation framework. The analysis is based on a sample of commercial assets taken from the portfolio of a real estate investment company in the United States. The proposed multicriteria approach considers a rich set of evaluation criteria, including macroeconomic indicators, information about the local CRE markets, as well as the characteristics of the assets under consideration. Using analytical methodologies from the family of ELECTRE outranking methods, the assets are ranked and rated according to their overall performance. Different scenarios are explored for the weightings of the appraisal criteria, thus enabling the analysis of the robustness of the results.

Real Estate Returns

This article compares and contrasts investments in residential, farmland, and commercial real estate. We also compare real estate investments to more traditional investments in stocks, bonds, commodities, and alternative assets. Price-change returns, rental returns, and total returns from 1991 through 2018 are the focus of the analysis. Including rent is important because rent makes up a significant part of the returns. We include empirically derived implicit net rent data from owner-occupied residences and owner-occupied farmland in the analysis. <b>TOPICS:</b>Real estate, performance measurement <b>Key Findings</b> • High Returns. All three real estate categories did well. But farm real estate had the highest average returns, and the average farm price did not dip during the 2008–2009 subprime mortgage crisis. • Riskiest. Commercial real estate was the riskiest category of real estate investment between 2003 and 2019. And it suffered the largest price dip during the subprime mortgage crisis. • Resolving Uncertainty. Because real estate is relatively illiquid, it is difficult to measure the year to year returns precisely. However, our overall returns from rent and price changes are more informative.

Characteristics and Role of the Malaysia Commercial Real Estate Market

The commercial real estate market in Malaysia is a high-performing and important emerging real estate market in the Asia-Pacific region and globally. It has the features and qualities usually found in a developed real estate market, as it is one of the few emerging real estate markets with an open and transparent status. This study highlights the investment performance characteristics and added-value role of Malaysian commercial real estate in a mixed-asset portfolio over the 10-year period of 2010-2019. The results indicate a distinction in the risk-adjusted performance of commercial real estate investment in Malaysia. In particular, direct real estate’s risk-adjusted performance significantly exceeded that of the commonly held asset classes such as bonds and stocks. However, the risk-adjusted performance of listed real estate was hampered by its high level of volatility. Further, direct real estate and, to a slightly lesser extent, listed real estate were able to potentially enhance a portfolio’s performance when deployed in a diversified investment portfolio. Overall, this study provides an empirical validation of the unique performance characteristics of commercial real estate in Malaysia, as investors seek to reconfigure their portfolios using assets with potential for greater investment returns in this current highly volatile investment environment.