Many birds use carotenoids to colour their plumage yellow to red. Because birds cannot synthesise carotenoids, they need to obtain these pigments from food, although some species metabolise dietary carotenoids (which are often yellow) into derived carotenoids (often red). Here, we study the occurrence of yellow and red carotenoid-based plumage colours in the passerines, the largest bird radiation and quantify the effects of potential ecological and life-history drivers on their evolution. We scored the presence/absence of yellow and red carotenoid-based plumage in nearly 6,000 species and use Bayesian phylogenetic mixed models to assess the effects of carotenoid-availability in diet, primary productivity, body size, habitat and sexual selection. We also test the widespread assumption that red carotenoid-based colours are more likely to be the result of metabolization. Finally, we analyse the pattern of evolutionary transitions between yellow and red carotenoid-based plumage colours to determine whether, as predicted, the evolution of yellow carotenoid-based colours precedes red. We show that, as expected, both colours are more likely to evolve in smaller species and in species with carotenoid-rich diets. Yellow carotenoid-based plumage colours, but not red, are more prevalent in species that inhabit environments with higher primary productivity and closed vegetation. In general, females were more likely to have yellow and males more likely to have red carotenoid-based plumage colours, closely matching the effects of sexual selection. Our analyses also confirm that red carotenoid-based colours are more likely to be metabolised than yellow carotenoid-based colours. Evolutionary gains and losses of yellow and red carotenoid-based plumage colours indicate that red colours evolved more readily in species that already deposited yellow carotenoids, while the reverse was rarely the case. Our study provides evidence for a general, directional evolutionary trend from yellow to red carotenoid-based colours, which are more likely to be the result of metabolization. This may render them potentially better indicators of quality, and thus favoured by sexual selection.
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