Colombian Municipalities Research Articles

Adaptations in Vocational Guidance: Experience from the Colombian Amazon

As we move into late postmodernity, the instruments and processes proposed require research and development processes that allow them to remain in force within current technological mediations and trends. In this context, the instruments that facilitate vocational guidance processes are included. Therefore, this innovation experience arises as a response to the needs present in the Colombian context, based on two objectives: To reduce the number of items in the CHASIDE vocational orientation test, 2) To validate the resulting test. A longitudinal study with a quantitative approach was carried out, with a convenience sampling in three Colombian municipalities during 2019-2023. Quantitative statistical analysis techniques, data were analyzed including statistics of mean, variance, Pearson's correlation coefficient, hypothetical difference of means, degrees of freedom, t-statistic, P(t) and critical value of t (one tail and two tails), and others. Additionally, internal consistency was checked using Cronbach's Alpha. Managing to reduce the test from 98 items to 35 items, preserving its two dimensions (Aptitudes and Interests), with a simpler structure, which responds to a Multifactorial Profile (PM), its validation confirmed the new structure, that established 7 factors for the dimension of aptitudes, constituted by 27 items and 3 factors for the Interests dimension with 8 items. In conclusion, social changes are reflected in factor structures and their groupings within professions, leaving the unifactorial proposed by Holland in the RIASEC, to give way to interactions within aptitudes and interests. Aptitudes being more stable than interests over time.

Pooled lagged effect of runoff on leptospirosis cases in Colombia

Leptospirosis is a global zoonotic disease caused by spirochete bacteria of the genus Leptospira. The disease exhibits a notable incidence in tropical and developing countries, and in Colombia, environmental, economic, social, and cultural conditions favor disease transmission, directly impacting both mortality and morbidity rates. Our objective was to establish the pooled lagged effect of runoff on leptospirosis cases in Colombia. For our study, we included the top 20 Colombian municipalities with the highest number of leptospirosis cases. Monthly cases of leptospirosis, confirmed by laboratory tests and spanning from 2007 to 2022, were obtained from the National Public Health Surveillance System. Additionally, we collected monthly runoff and atmospheric and oceanic data from remote sensors. Multidimensional poverty index values for each municipality were sourced from the Terridata repository. We employed causal inference and distributed lag nonlinear models to estimate the lagged effect of runoff on leptospirosis cases. Municipality-specific estimates were combined through meta-analysis to derive a single estimate for all municipalities under study. The pooled results for the 20 municipalities suggest a lagged effect for the 0 to 2, and 0–3 months of runoff on leptospirosis when the runoff is < 120 g/m2. No effect was identified for longer lagged periods (0–1, 0 to 4, 0 to 5, and 0–6 months) or higher runoff values. Incorporation of the multidimensional poverty index into the meta-analysis of runoff contributed to the models for the lagged periods of 0–3, and 0–4 months.

The Impact of Climatological Factors on the Incidence of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis (CL) in Colombian Municipalities from 2017 to 2019.

Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a zoonotic disease caused by protozoa of the Leishmania genus, transmitted by vectors from the Phlebotominae subfamily. The interaction between the vector, reservoir, and parasite is susceptible to climate change. This study explores how temperature and rainfall influenced the incidence of CL in 15 Colombian municipalities between 2017 and 2019. Epidemiological data were obtained from Colombia's Instituto Nacional de Salud, while climatological data came from the Instituto de Hidrología, Meteorología y Estudios Ambientales. Using Spearman's rank correlation coefficient, we examined the relationships between monthly climatic variables and the cumulative incidence of CL, considering various lag times. The data were further analyzed using Locally Weighted Scatterplot Smoothing (LOWESS). Our findings reveal both significant positive and negative correlations, depending on locality and climate variables. LOWESS analysis indicates that while rainfall-related incidence remains stable, temperature impacts incidence in a parabolic trend. This study underscores the significant yet complex influence of climatic factors on CL incidence. The insights gained could aid public health efforts by improving predictive models and crafting targeted interventions to mitigate the disease's impact, particularly in regions vulnerable to climate variability.

Livestock and environmental characterization of Colombian municipalities: study of vesicular stomatitis.

Amid the surge in data volume generated across various fields of knowledge, there is an increasing necessity for advanced analytical methodologies to effectively process and utilize this information. Particularly in the field of animal health, this approach is pivotal for enhancing disease understanding, surveillance, and management. The main objective of the study was to conduct a comprehensive livestock and environmental characterization of Colombian municipalities and examine their relationship with the distribution of vesicular stomatitis (VS). Utilizing satellite imagery to delineate climatic and land use profiles, along with data from the Colombian Agricultural Institute (ICA) concerning animal populations and their movements, the research employed Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to explore the correlation between environmental and livestock-related variables. Additionally, municipalities were grouped through a Hierarchical Clustering process. The assessment of risk associated with VS was carried out using a Generalized Linear Model. This process resulted in the formation of four distinct clusters: three primarily characterized by climatic attributes and one predominantly defined by livestock characteristics. Cluster 1, identified as "Andino" due to its climatic and environmental features, exhibited the highest odds ratio for VS occurrence. The adopted methodology not only provides a deeper understanding of the local population and its context, but also offers valuable insights for enhancing disease surveillance and control programs.

Effects of Internal Forced Displacement on Crime: Evidence from Colombia

Internal forced displacement, a consequence of territorial control strategies by armed groups, has resulted in profound socioeconomic challenges for receiving areas. Approximately eight million people have been affected in Colombia, where internal conflict and criminal networks have prevailed for over five decades. This paper explores the relationship between internal forced migration and crime rates in Colombian municipalities from 2003 to 2016, focusing on spatial dynamics. The study utilizes a spatial panel model and considers five crime categories: homicides, kidnapping, personal injuries, automobile theft, and residential burglary. The results reveal significant associations between forced displacement and certain types of crime, highlighting the importance of spatial analysis in understanding the interaction between migration and crime. The findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and researchers, facilitating informed policy interventions and community initiatives to address the repercussions of internal migration on crime dynamics.

Transparência e seus drivers. Um estudo baseado na experiência colombiana (2012-2016)

Abstract The research aim is to analyze the drivers of transparency levels in Colombian municipalities from the perspective of citizens (agency theory) and local governments (legitimacy theory). We used the Panel Corrected Standard Errors (PCSE) and a system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator in a dataset of 1,101 Colombian municipalities for five years (2012-2016). Our results show that fiscal autonomy, education, gross domestic product per capita, population size, and political participation are positively associated with public information disclosure in Colombia. Through this research, we contribute to the transparency literature in subnational governments in developing countries by examining determinants related to “citizens’ monitoring abilities” and “pressures for legitimacy” in Colombia.

Avoiding a natural resource curse? The impact of administrative efficiency on Colombian municipalities’ fiscal effort

ABSTRACT The term ‘paradox of the plenty’ was coined to describe an often-found inverse relationship between royalty revenue and economic development. The main causal mechanism is thought to be a substitution effect whereby governments use royalty revenue to lower taxes instead of investing in activities that promote long-term economic growth. However, the occurrence of a ‘natural resource curse’ differs widely both for countries and subnational jurisdictions. Based on a dataset that traces 1,078 municipalities in Colombia from 2006 to 2017 and utilising a policy reform in 2012 that reduced royalty revenue for producer municipalities, we argue and find that municipal fiscal effort is higher when producer municipalities have more-efficient administrations. Our findings have important implications for the design of policy that allocates royalty revenue across subnational jurisdictions, in particular for developing countries where administrative efficiency tends to vary widely between local governments.

Impact of weather shocks on educational outcomes in the municipalities of Colombia

This study estimates the impact of weather shocks on educational outcomes in Colombian municipalities and explores the main transmission mechanisms. We employ a panel data set combining information on municipal weather shocks, educational results, and socioeconomic characteristics for 2010–2016. Linear regression models are estimated using fixed effects and robust standard errors at the municipal level, followed by mediation analyses. Results indicate that excess rainfall shocks increase school dropout and decrease coverage rates and academic performance while deficit rainfall shocks have the opposite effect on all outcomes. The main mechanisms explaining these results are income, as proxied by tax revenues, intergovernmental transfers, and agricultural income, and the infant mortality rate.

Goal achievement in municipal strategic planning: The role of executives' background and political context

AbstractStrategic planning has been increasingly used by local governments worldwide to boost performance. While this can be seen as a technical and political process, the relationship between managerial qualifications, political context and achievement of strategic goals in local governments has been scarcely studied. This study explores these relationships using data from 137 Colombian municipalities at the middle and end of the 2016–2019 mayoral term. Findings suggest that midterm strategic goal achievement is associated with mayoral experience, particularly in the national government where the tradition of strategic planning is better established, and this relationship increases with higher levels of municipal council support. Certain traits of the chief planning officer, appointed by the mayor, also correlate positively with midterm goal achievement. End‐term goal achievement is mainly associated with midterm paths. This research contributes to the performance management literature by highlighting the political‐managerial interplay in strategic goal achievement.

Natural Resource Rents, Local Taxes, and Government Performance: Evidence from Colombia

Abstract I compare the impact of local tax revenue and royalties from the extraction of natural resources on governance in Colombian municipalities, leveraging plausibly exogenous variation from cadastral updates and fluctuations in the world price of oil. Higher tax revenue has a larger effect on local public goods in the areas of education, health, and water than a same-sized increase in oil royalties, despite earmarking of royalties for spending in these areas. Higher tax revenue also reduces the probability of a disciplinary prosecution against the municipal mayor, while the opposite is true for royalties, particularly for misbehavior related to public spending.

The Association of Blood Banks per City with Mortality Due to Traumatic Hemorrhagic Shock in Colombia: A Population-Based Analysis.

Hemorrhagic shock is the second leading cause of death for injured people and disproportionately affects low resource economies. The potential role of spatial allocation of blood banks and the unmet transfusion needs of patients are yet to be characterized. We aimed to estimate the effect of the number of blood banks in mortality due to traumatic hemorrhagic shock (THS) in Colombia. We performed a population-based cross-sectional study using secondary data from the Colombian Government: including annual reports from the Blood Bank Network, mortality, and population estimates for 2015-2016. International Classification of Disease 10th code T79.4 identified THS as the primary cause of death. A city-clustered multivariate negative binomial regression, weighted by violent deaths rate, was used to obtain incidence rate ratios (IRR) of death due to THS with 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). Of the 59,030 violent deaths in Colombia in 2015-2016, 36.76% were due to THS. Only 3.13% of Colombian municipalities had a blood bank. THS incidence decreased as the number of blood banks in a city increased, and the lowest incidence was observed at ten banks (IRR:0.18, 95%CI:0.15-0.22). Receiving medical care in a city with blood banks had a more substantial impact on THS (IRR:0.85; 95%CI:0.76-0.96). The number of blood banks per city was associated with lower incidence of THS deaths. These findings may highlight the inequitable distribution of blood systems and their association with preventable deaths. Further studies with more focused clinical and geographical data might clarify the geographic determinants of blood products' availability.

Environmental and socio-economic determinants of the occurrence of malaria clusters in Colombia

This study identifies the environmental and socio-economic determinants of clusters of high malaria incidence in Colombia during the period of 2008–2019. The malaria cases were obtained from the National System of Surveillance in Public Health, with 798,897 cases reported in the 986 Colombian municipalities evaluated during the study period. Spatial autocorrelation of incidence was examined with global and local indices. Clusters were identified in the Amazon, Pacific, and Uraba-Bajo Cauca-Alto Sinú regions. The factors associated with a municipality belonging to a high-incidence cluster were identified using a logistic regression model with mixed effects and showed a positive association for the variables (forest coverage and minimum multi-year average rainfall). An inverse relationship was observed for aqueduct coverage and the odds of belonging to a cluster. A 1% increase in forest coverage was associated with a 4.2% increase in the odds of belonging to a malaria cluster. The association with minimum multi-year average rainfall was positive (OR = 1.0011; 95% CI 1.0005−1.0027). A 1% increase in aqueduct coverage was associated with a 4.3% decrease in the odds of belonging to malaria cluster. The identification of malaria cluster determinants in Colombia could help guide surveillance and disease control policies.

Into the tropics: Temperature, mortality, and access to health care in Colombia

This paper analyzes the relationship between temperature, mortality, and adaptation opportunities in a tropical country. Such countries host almost 40% of the world’s population and face inherently different environmental, demographic, and socio-economic conditions than their counterparts in temperate areas. Using detailed data from all Colombian municipalities, I show that anomalously hot or cold days increase mortality even at narrow temperature ranges, which are characteristic of the tropics. An additional day with a mean temperature above 27 °C (80.6 ∘F) increases mortality rates by approximately 0.24 deaths per 100,000, equivalent to 0.7% of monthly death rates. Unlike temperate locations, I find that deaths attributed to infectious diseases and respiratory illnesses drive this relationship in the hot part of the distribution, mainly affecting children aged 0–9. These findings uncover new factors and populations at risk and imply that the average person who dies after a hot temperature shock loses approximately 30 years of life. I also provide evidence that access to health care and quality of services could mediate between temperature and mortality.

The impact of social violence on HIV risk for women in Colombia: A concurrent mixed methods study.

Gender, violence, and migration structurally impact health. The Venezuelan humanitarian crisis comprises the largest transnational migration in the history of the Americas. Colombia, a post-conflict country, is the primary recipient of Venezuelans. The Colombian context imposes high levels of violence on women across migration phases. There is little information on the relationship between violence and HIV risk in the region and how it impacts these groups. Evidence on how to approach the HIV response related to Venezuela's humanitarian crisis is lacking. Our study seeks to 1) understand how violence is associated with newly reported HIV/AIDS case rates for women in Colombian municipalities; and 2) describe how social violence impacts HIV risk, treatment, and prevention for Venezuelan migrant and refugee women undergoing transnational migration and resettlement in Colombia. We conducted a concurrent mixed-methods design. We used negative binomial models to explore associations between social violence proxied by Homicide Rates (HR) at the municipality level (n = 84). The also conducted 54 semi-structured interviews with Venezuelan migrant and refugee women and key informants in two Colombian cities to expand and describe contextual vulnerabilities to HIV risk, prevention and care related to violence. We found that newly reported HIV cases in women were 25% higher for every increase of 18 homicides per 100,000, after adjusting for covariates. Upon resettlement, participants cited armed actors' control, lack of government accountability, gender-based violence and stigmatization of HIV as sources of increased HIV risk for VMRW. These factors impose barriers to testing, treatment and care. Social violence in Colombian municipalities is associated with an increase in newly reported HIV/AIDS case rates in women. Violence hinders Venezuelan migrant and refugee women's access and engagement in available HIV prevention and treatment interventions.

Immigration and violent crime: Evidence from the Colombia-Venezuela Border

This paper investigates the link between violent crime and immigration using data from Colombian municipalities during the recent episode of immigration from Venezuela. The key finding is that, following the closing and then re-opening of the border in 2016, which precipitated a massive immigration wave, homicides in Colombia increased in areas close to key border crossings. Using information on the nationality of the victim, we find that this increase was driven by homicides involving Venezuelan victims, who were disproportionately victimized relative to their size of the population. Thus, in contrast to xenophobic fears that migrants might victimize natives, it was migrants, rather than natives, who faced risks associated with immigration. We then investigate possible mechanisms underlying this link between immigration and violent crime.

Impact of weekday and weekend mobility and public policies on COVID-19 incidence and deaths across 76 large municipalities in Colombia: statistical analysis and simulation

BackgroundDespite widespread restrictions on residents’ mobility to limit the COVID-19 pandemic, controlled impact evaluations on such restrictions are rare. While Colombia imposed a National Lockdown, exceptions and additions created variations across municipalities and over time. MethodsWe analyzed how weekend and weekday mobility affected COVID-19 cases and deaths. Using GRANDATA from the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) we examined movement in 76 Colombian municipalities, representing 60% of Colombia's population, from March 2, 2020 through October 31, 2020. We combined the mobility data with Colombia’s National Epidemiological Surveillance System (SIVIGILA) and other databases and simulated impacts on COVID-19 burden. ResultsDuring the study period, Colombians stayed at home more on weekends compared to weekdays. In highly dense municipalities, people moved less than in less dense municipalities. Overall, decreased movement was associated with significant reductions in COVID-19 cases and deaths two weeks later. If mobility had been reduced from the median to the threshold of the best quartile, we estimate that Colombia would have averted 17,145 cases and 1,209 deaths over 34.9 weeks, reductions of 1.63% and 3.91%, respectively. The effects of weekend mobility reductions (with 95% confidence intervals) were 6.40 (1.99–9.97) and 4.94 (1.33–19.72) times those of overall reductions for cases and deaths, respectively.ConclusionsWe believe this is the first evaluation of day-of-the week mobility on COVID-19. Weekend behavior was likely riskier than weekday behavior due to larger gatherings and less social distancing or protective measures. Reducing or shifting such activities outdoors would reduce COVID-19 cases and deaths.

Solid Waste Characterization and Management in a Highly Vulnerable Tropical City

Inadequate waste management can cause human health problems, economic losses, and environmental contamination. Colombian municipalities face the critical issues of very low levels of recycling for solid waste, increasing waste quantities, precarious conditions for waste pickers, a lack of investment in alternative strategies, increasing pollution, and landslides in landfills. Moreover, Colombia lacks an in-situ quantification of solid waste, as well as alternative strategies based on an analysis of the local contexts. This study provides an analysis of the current waste management and a characterization of the waste production in a highly vulnerable tropical city in Colombia, Puerto Carreño, the capital municipality in Vichada. Systematically following the collection routes, we determined that 61% of waste produced is potentially recyclable, and that the total solid waste per inhabitant (at 0.504 kg/capita/day) is 43% lower than that estimated by the private local waste collector. The great majority of solid waste is disposed of in El Merey landfill, which does not currently fulfill legal requirements. Given the current incentivization legislation, formal economic gains can be achieved, including an increase in employment, and the reduction of negative social and environmental impacts near the landfill, and it is estimated that its useful lifetime can be doubled (+30 years) within a circular economy framework. This study is an important contribution for local and national authorities to implement key waste-management recommendations, including the formalization of indigenous waste pickers, implementation of selective collection routes, agricultural exploitation of the organic waste, and adequate landfill management.

Association of Midgut Bacteria and Their Metabolic Pathways with Zika Infection and Insecticide Resistance in Colombian Aedes aegypti Populations.

Introduction: Aedes aegypti is the vector of several arboviruses such as dengue, Zika, and chikungunya. In 2015–16, Zika virus (ZIKV) had an outbreak in South America associated with prenatal microcephaly and Guillain-Barré syndrome. This mosquito’s viral transmission is influenced by microbiota abundance and diversity and its interactions with the vector. The conditions of cocirculation of these three arboviruses, failure in vector control due to insecticide resistance, limitations in dengue management during the COVID-19 pandemic, and lack of effective treatment or vaccines make it necessary to identify changes in mosquito midgut bacterial composition and predict its functions through the infection. Its study is fundamental because it generates knowledge for surveillance of transmission and the risk of outbreaks of these diseases at the local level. Methods: Midgut bacterial compositions of females of Colombian Ae. aegypti populations were analyzed using DADA2 Pipeline, and their functions were predicted with PICRUSt2 analysis. These analyses were done under the condition of natural ZIKV infection and resistance to lambda–cyhalothrin, alone and in combination. One-step RT-PCR determined the percentage of ZIKV-infected females. We also measured the susceptibility to the pyrethroid lambda–cyhalothrin and evaluated the presence of the V1016I mutation in the sodium channel gene. Results: We found high ZIKV infection rates in Ae. aegypti females from Colombian rural municipalities with deficient water supply, such as Honda with 63.6%. In the face of natural infection with an arbovirus such as Zika, the diversity between an infective and non-infective form was significantly different. Bacteria associated with a state of infection with ZIKV and lambda–cyhalothrin resistance were detected, such as the genus Bacteroides, which was related to functions of pathogenicity, antimicrobial resistance, and bioremediation of insecticides. We hypothesize that it is a vehicle for virus entry, as it is in human intestinal infections. On the other hand, Bello, the only mosquito population classified as susceptible to lambda–cyhalothrin, was associated with bacteria related to mucin degradation functions in the intestine, belonging to the Lachnospiraceae family, with the genus Dorea being increased in ZIKV-infected females. The Serratia genus presented significantly decreased functions related to phenazine production, potentially associated with infection control, and control mechanism functions for host defense and quorum sensing. Additionally, Pseudomonas was the genus principally associated with functions of the degradation of insecticides related to tryptophan metabolism, ABC transporters with a two-component system, efflux pumps, and alginate synthesis. Conclusions: Microbiota composition may be modulated by ZIKV infection and insecticide resistance in Ae. aegypti Colombian populations. The condition of resistance to lambda–cyhalothrin could be inducing a phenome of dysbiosis in field Ae. aegypti affecting the transmission of arboviruses.

The impact and externalities of natural disasters on local tax revenue in Colombia

ABSTRACT This paper studies the impact of natural disasters on tax revenue across Colombian municipalities. We follow a two-step approach to evaluate how a municipality’s tax revenue depends on natural disasters taking place both locally and in its trade partners. In the first step, we estimate a gravity model of bilateral trade and construct a matrix of estimated bilateral trade shares, allowing us to measure the strength of the economic relationships between municipalities. In the second step, our results reveal that natural disasters in the destination municipalities increase the tax revenue in the origin cities.

The impact of preemptive investment on natural disasters

This paper studies the impact of preemptive investment against natural disasters on the future occurrence of landslides and the losses associated with it. Based on a panel of 746 Colombian municipalities with medium and high risk of landslides and an instrumental variable approach, we find that preemptive public investment can reduce the number of landslides, the number of people who die, are injured, or missing after a landslide, as well as the number of people affected. However, we do not find it has any effect on the number of houses destroyed. The results reveal that local governments focus their preventive measures on saving the lives and the physical integrity of their citizens, but they pay less attention to the direct market losses of natural disasters. These results are relevant in the presence of imperfect private insurance markets and increased informal settlements.