Impact of weather shocks on educational outcomes in the municipalities of Colombia

Abstract

This study estimates the impact of weather shocks on educational outcomes in Colombian municipalities and explores the main transmission mechanisms. We employ a panel data set combining information on municipal weather shocks, educational results, and socioeconomic characteristics for 2010–2016. Linear regression models are estimated using fixed effects and robust standard errors at the municipal level, followed by mediation analyses. Results indicate that excess rainfall shocks increase school dropout and decrease coverage rates and academic performance while deficit rainfall shocks have the opposite effect on all outcomes. The main mechanisms explaining these results are income, as proxied by tax revenues, intergovernmental transfers, and agricultural income, and the infant mortality rate.