Cold Weather Research Articles

Identifying, Tracking, and Evaluating Mechanisms of North American Cold Air Outbreaks (CAOs) Using a Feature Tracking Approach

Abstract North American Cold Air Outbreaks (CAOs) are large-scale temperature extremes that typically originate in the high latitudes and impact the midlatitudes in winter. As they transit southward, they can have significant socioeconomic consequences. CAOs from winter (DJF) 1979 to 2020 were identified in the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis dataset (ERA5) using an automated feature tracking approach (TempestExtremesV2.1). This allowed for the systematic identification of a large number of cases without using pre-determined, Eulerian regions. Another important advantage of this approach was the ability to compute a feature tracked thermodynamic energy budget in a non-fixed domain for every identified CAO event. As an example, the thermodynamic energy budget analysis was used to quantify important processes for the 18th–23rd January, 1985 CAO. The dominant mechanisms of cooling and warming as well as lysis locations (i.e. eastern or western) were then used to generalize detected CAO events into subcategories. The associated statistics, spatial footprints, and composites of 500-hPa height, sea level pressure, and temperature and winds at 850-hPa were analyzed for three subcategories that contained the majority of events. This analysis revealed that CAO events that form and dissipate through different mechanisms occur in different regions, have different intensities, and are associated with different large-scale circulation patterns. Finally, analysis of associated North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Pacific-North American Pattern (PNA) teleconnections revealed that the PNA is typically in a positive phase for eastern CAO events and negative phase for western events resulting primarily from horizontal advection, whereas the NAO did not have any significant relationship.

Bottom-up perspectives on “climate adaptation” from “vulnerable” coastal communities: a political ecology perspective from Taiwan

ABSTRACT The global climate crisis severely affects coastal communities worldwide. Not only do coastal communities have to cope with the effects of the climate crisis, such as sea-level rise, increased flooding, changing weather patterns, droughts and increased salinisation, they also have to cope with other non-climate related shocks and stresses. Many studies often focus on the “climate adaptation” processes of these “vulnerable” communities in linear and cause-and-effects ways. This study approaches the concept of climate adaptation and vulnerability from a political ecology perspective in the context of coastal Taiwan – a region heavily affected by climate change. Through in-depth interviews, this study argues that households have developed various strategies to adapt not only to environmental changes (e.g. increased cold spells and flooding) but also to top-down flood hazard mitigation planning and infrastructure, changing demographics, and encroaching solar panel companies (for the “greater good of the nation”). Furthermore, decisions made in the past have a direct impact today, such as land subsidence due to the massive shift towards aquaculture several decades ago. These factors showcase how adaptation and vulnerability are relational concepts being coshaped by both structural determinants, such as political economy and power relations, and micro-level factors, such as personal aspirations and people’s life courses.

GPS-telemetry reveals individual plasticity in the movements of Eurasian Curlews Numenius arquata during a cold spell

GPS-telemetry reveals individual plasticity in the movements of Eurasian Curlews Numenius arquata during a cold spell

A stretched polar vortex increased mid-latitude climate variability during the Last Glacial Maximum

Abstract. The Arctic stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) is a key driver of winter weather and has been found to modify winter climate variability and its predictability in Eurasia and North America on inter-annual and decadal timescales. However, to what extent this relationship plays a role in driving climate variability on glacial–interglacial timescales is still unknown. Here, by systematically analysing SPV changes in four sets of PMIP4 (Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project – Phase 4) simulations for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the pre-industrial (PI) period, we explore how the SPV changed during the glacial climate and how it influenced climate variability. Our results show that under LGM conditions, the SPV stretched towards the Laurentide ice sheet; this was accompanied by anomalous upward wave propagation and enhanced SPV variability, which increased the likelihood of cold-air outbreaks into the mid-latitudes. During the LGM, this stretched SPV pushed cold Arctic air further equatorwards, increasing winter climate variability over the more southern mid-latitudes. In particular, in winter, this strengthened cooling over the mid-latitudes extended beyond the coverage of the Laurentide ice sheet (unlike in summer). SPV-induced temperature variability also explains the inter-model spread as removing SPV variation from the model results reduces the inter-model spread by up to 5°C over mid-latitude Eurasia. These results highlight the critical role of the SPV in connecting the polar region and mid-latitudes on glacial–interglacial timescales. These connections are reminiscent of intra-seasonal stratosphere–troposphere coupling.

Association analysis of dry heat or wet cold weather and the risk of urolithiasis hospitalization in a southern Chinese city

To analyze the relationship between hot or cold, and wet or dry interacting weather, and urolithiasis-related hospitalizations. Distributed lag nonlinear model for time series design was used to build exposure-response curves for the association of daily mean temperature and relative humidity with urolithiasis-related hospitalizations. Cut-off values were determined for temperature, humidity, and dichotomous categories to define heat-cold and wet-dry meteorological conditions. Based on a total of 38,184 urolithiasis-related hospitalizations from 2018 to 2019 in Ganzhou as a large prefecture-level city in southern China, dry-heat weather during the hot season (May to September) increased the risk of urolithiasis-related hospitalizations (relative risk [RR]: 1.17, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.02, 1.35), with the most pronounced effects in those aged 21–40 years and male. Wet-cold weather in the cold season (December to February) increased the risk of urolithiasis-related hospitalizations in the total population (RR: 1.58, 95% CI: 1.20, 2.07). The effect was significant in the 21–60 years old age and both genders groups. Both dry-heat weather in the hot season and wet-cold weather in the cold season could trigger urolithiasis.

Operation of a Compression Ignition Engine at Idling Load under Simulated Cold Weather Conditions

Operation of a Compression Ignition Engine at Idling Load under Simulated Cold Weather Conditions

Influence of Weather on Sickle Cell Disease Vaso‐Occlusive Episodes and Acute Chest Syndrome: A Nationwide Sample Analysis

ABSTRACTBackgroundThe clinical manifestations of sickle cell disease (SCD) result in significant morbidity and healthcare costs. The effect of weather as a risk factor for the development of vaso‐occlusive episodes (VOEs) has been previously studied, although with variable results. The aim of our retrospective, nationwide study was to determine the association between weather patterns and pediatric VOE and acute chest syndrome (ACS).ProcedureDemographic and clinical data were obtained between 2015 and 2022 from the Pediatric Health Information System and merged with weather data from the National Climatic Data Center.ResultsWe observed a higher incidence of VOE and ACS admissions during the colder months. Results also revealed a negative association between VOE admissions and average temperature, whereas a positive association was found for ACS admissions.ConclusionMedical providers should continue to counsel patients with SCD to take appropriate precautions during cold weather.

Responsiveness to cold snaps by turtle embryos depends on exposure timing and duration.

Characterizing how organisms respond to transient temperatures may further our understanding of their susceptibility to climate change. Past studies in the freshwater turtle, Trachemys scripta, have demonstrated that the timing and duration of heat waves can have major implications for the response of genes involved in gonadal development and the production of female hatchlings. Yet, no study has considered how the response of these genes to transient cold snap exposure may affect gonadal development and the production of males. We investigated how cold snap timing affects gonadal gene expression in T. scripta embryos and how the duration of an early cold snap influences the resulting hatchling sex ratios. Results show that responsiveness to cold changes rapidly across development, such that genes that responded when exposure began on incubation day 14 responded differently when exposure occurred just four or eight days later. Sex ratio data revealed that embryos experiencing an early cold snap also require a long exposure (>20 days) before most commit to testis development, suggesting that warm baseline temperatures may lower their sensitivity to later cold snap exposures. These results highlight how individual responses to incubation temperature can change rapidly across development in turtles and have important effects on sex ratios.

Association between ambient temperatures and cardiovascular disease: A time series analysis using emergency ambulance dispatches in Chongqing, China, 2019-2021.

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is one of the leading causes of death globally. Yet, further research is required into the relationship between CVD and extreme environmental temperatures. This study aims to explore the association between the incidence of CVD and extreme temperatures, and also to identify susceptible subgroups within the population. We collected cardiovascular emergency ambulance dispatch (CEAD) records from Chongqing Emergency Dispatch Center in the main urban areas of Chongqing from 2019 to 2021. Then, we used distributed lag nonlinear modeling (DLNM) with a quasi-Poisson distribution to evaluate the association between extreme temperatures and CEADs. Susceptibility subgroups were identified by stratified analysis according to gender, age and initial diagnosis. Finally, the attribution analysis was used to calculate the scores and counts of CEADs caused by low and high temperatures. Compared with the optimal temperature (23°C), the cumulative lagged risk of total CEADs was increased under extreme low-temperature conditions (CRR: 1.732, 95% CI: [1.157, 2.593]), with the lagged effect lasting for 8 days. Under extreme high-temperature conditions, it decreased (CRR: 0.752, 95% CI: [0.611, 0.926]) and a protective effect was observed. Compared to the group under 60, those over 60 were more sensitive to temperature changes, showing a higher risk of disease with cold exposure (RR: 1.087, 95% CI: [1.021, 1.157]). In addition, a reduction in risk of disease was observed just one day after heat exposure. There were also gender differences in the elderly group: males showed longer lagged effects after cold exposure, while females had higher dispatch risk in cold weather and less heat adaptation in hot weather than males. Ambient temperature is significantly associated with the risk of CVD, with elderly patients, especially females, being a high-risk subgroup. Governments need to formulate localized health policies that address regional climate patterns and population vulnerabilities. As one of the famous "Furnace Cities", Chongqing's measures for coping with hot environments can serve as a reference. Nonetheless, improving our understanding and preparation for cold weather is also crucial. Public warning systems should be improved, and local heating strategies for vulnerable groups should be developed to minimize the negative risk of extreme cold temperatures to the public.

Beware of cats in car engines during cold weather!

Beware of cats in car engines during cold weather!

Interactive effects of temperature, cadmium, and hypoxia on rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) liver mitochondrial bioenergetics

Fish in their natural environments possess elaborate mechanisms that regulate physiological function to mitigate the adverse effects of multiple environmental stressors such as temperature, metals, and hypoxia. We investigated how warm acclimation affects mitochondrial responses to Cd, hypoxia, and acute temperature shifts (heat shock and cold snap) in rainbow trout. We observed that state 3 respiration driven by complex I (CI) was resistant to the stressors while warm acclimation and Cd reduced complex I +II (CI + II) driven state 3 respiration. In contrast, state 4 (leak) respirations for both CI and CI + II were consistently stimulated by warm acclimation resulting in reduced mitochondrial coupling efficiency (respiratory control ratio [RCR]). Warm acclimation and Cd exacerbated their individual effect on leak respiration to further reduce the RCR. Moreover, the effect of warm acclimation on mitochondrial bioenergetics aligned with its inhibitory effect on activities of citrate synthase and both CI and CII. Unlike the Cd and warm acclimation combined exposure, hypoxia alone and in combination with warm acclimation and/or Cd abolished the stimulation of CI and CI + II powered leak respirations resulting in partial recovery of RCR. The response to acute temperature shifts indicated that while state 3 respiration returned to pre-acclimation level, the leak respiration did not. Overall, our findings suggest a complex in vivo interaction of multiple stressors on mitochondrial function that are not adequately predicted by their individual effects.

Bidirectional effect modifications of temperature and PM2.5 on myocardial infarction morbidity and mortality in Beijing, China from 2007 to 2021.

Ambient temperatures and PM2.5 can trigger myocardial infarction (MI), while little is known about the complex interplay between these two factors on MI, especially morbidity. To investigate bidirectional effect modifications of temperature and PM2.5 on MI morbidity and mortality. A time-stratified case-crossover study was conducted utilizing high-resolution data of temperature and PM2.5, along with 498,077 MI cases from the citywide registry in Beijing, China from 2007 to 2021. A conditional logistic regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine linear and categorical effect modifications of temperature and PM2.5 on MI morbidity and mortality. The PM2.5 effect on MI morbidity, modified by temperature, showed a progressive increase of odds ratio from 1.013 (95% CI: 1.001, 1.025) to 1.027 (95% CI: 1.012, 1.042) with rising temperatures. Stratified analysis revealed a greater PM2.5 effect in high temperature strata (1.049, 95 % CI: 1.029, 1.069) compared with low strata (1.007, 95 % CI: 0.993, 1.021) on MI morbidity (PZ test<0.001). The temperature effect on MI morbidity was also modified by PM2.5, with a gradual upward risk trend observed with increasing PM2.5 concentration. Specifically, the heat wave effect was greater at high PM2.5 concentration strata (1.097, 95 % CI: 1.042, 1.155) than at low strata (0.954, 95 % CI: 0.890, 1.023) (PZ test=0.002). The cold spell effect was greater at high PM2.5 concentration strata (1.181, 95 % CI: 1.117, 1.249) than at low strata (0.883, 95 % CI: 0.740, 1.053) (PZ test=0.002). A similar bidirectional effect modification of temperature and PM2.5 was also found in MI mortality. Temperature and PM2.5 bidirectionally modify their effect on MI morbidity and mortality. Elevated temperatures exacerbate PM2.5 effect, while increased concentrations of PM2.5 amplify temperature effect. The combined effect of temperatures and PM2.5 should be stressed, encompassing not only extreme conditions but also the entire range of exposures.

Analyzing trend and heatwaves of 15 Years of Sea Surface Temperature Variations along the Italian Adriatic Coast.

Water temperature is a vital parameter impactingthe growth and survival of aquatic life.Using satellite-derived infrared data, this studyanalysed the trend of sea surface temperature (SST)from 2008 to 2022of the Adriatic coastal watersofItalian regions. The "Mediterranean Sea High Resolution and Ultra High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature Analysis" product collected from theCopernicus Marine Serviceof European Copernicus programme was used, as a good compromise among spatial accuracy, temporal frequency and coverage. SST were derived in 176 locations, placed in the Adriatic Sea from the southern limit of the lagoon of Venice (Veneto) to Santa Maria di Leuca (LE), at a distance from the coast between 500 m and 5000 m (0.3 - 2.7 nautical miles). Time series analysis was applied to average value of daily SST calculated from the selected spatial locationsto identify the additive model components: trend, seasonality and random effects. The trend component was isolated and assessed using a linear regression modelto determine its significance and magnitude.A0.010 °C/year increase in SST was observed. Additionally, marine heatwaves and cold spells were consistently registered throughout the entire observation period, with a north-south gradient in intensity.

Physical Properties and Marshall Stability of High-Density Polyethylene and Rubber Crumb Modified Bitumen for Road Application

Standard bitumen used in road construction may not meet engineering requirements due to it becoming brittle in cold weather and softening in hot weather. This study investigates the mechanical and physical properties of bitumen modified with high-density polyethylene (HDPE) and rubber crumb for road applications. Bitumen sourced from Ilaje, Ondo State, Nigeria, underwent characterisation tests including penetration, softening point, ductility, and fire point. Waste HDPE and rubber crumb, collected from dumpsites in Zaria, Kaduna State, Nigeria, were sorted, washed, dried, and milled to a size of 600 microns. The waste plastic was then blended with the bitumen using an optimised mix design obtained from the design of experiment. Characterisation tests (Marshall stability, penetration, softening point, ductility, and fire point) were performed on the resulting waste plastic-modified bitumen. The test results showed that the stability of the road asphalt increases as the proportion of HDPE and rubber crumb used in the bitumen modification increases. The control group (100% bitumen) exhibited the lowest Marshall stability (19.81 kN, 13.12 kN, and 17.82 kN for samples A, B, and C, respectively). The stability of sample A increased by 62.2%, the stability of sample B increased by 75.6%, and that of sample C increased by 56.6%. Based on the research findings, modifying bitumen with waste materials offers several advantages for road construction, which are reducing material costs as waste plastics and tires are readily available, waste utilisation reduces environmental impact, and modified bitumen enhances road durability.

Comprehensive Study on Thermal Variability of 50/70 Bitumen: An Examination of Fatigue Testing Outcomes

The primary methodology for this research involves conducting a series of fatigue tests on 50/70 bitumen to assess its behaviour under varying thermal conditions. The tests will be carried out using a Dynamic Shear Rheometer (DSR), a widely used apparatus in bitumen testing. The DSR allows for measuring bitumen's rheological properties, such as viscosity and elasticity, under controlled temperature and stress conditions. The 50/70 bitumen samples will be carefully prepared according to standard testing procedures to ensure uniformity. The bitumen will be heated to a specified temperature for testing, and samples will be taken at different thermal conditions to simulate varying environmental scenarios. The bitumen samples will be placed in the DSR and subjected to cyclic loading to simulate the stresses experienced in real-world road conditions. The tests will be conducted at a range of temperatures, typically from low temperatures (to simulate cold weather) to high temperatures (to simulate hot weather). This will allow for the study of the temperature-dependent behaviour of bitumen. The DSR will measure the *complex shear modulus (G)**, which provides information on the stiffness of the material, and the phase angle (δ), which reflects the material’s ability to recover after deformation. These parameters are crucial for assessing the fatigue resistance of bitumen. The fatigue behaviour of the bitumen will be evaluated under repeated loading conditions. The dynamic shear rheometer will apply cyclical stress to the bitumen samples and measure the resulting strain. The number of cycles to failure, defined by a significant decrease in stiffness or an increase in phase angle, will be recorded. The focus will be on understanding how the fatigue resistance of the bitumen is affected by temperature fluctuations. By subjecting the bitumen to these varying conditions, it will be possible to determine at which. Temperatures the material exhibits optimal durability or fails prematurely.

„Nie będziemy lustrem zła”. Niezależna muzyczna scena Bydgoszczy 1982-1989

In the final decade of Communism Poland, independent bands fell victim to the dysfunctional mechanisms of the system, resulting in effective and multifaceted exclusion. Perhaps the most obvious manifestation of this phenomenon was the problem of recording and publishing music. This inability resulted in obscurity, cultural marginalization and ultimately, mainstream historical omission. In this essay on the independent music scene of Bydgoszcz in the years 1982-1989, I undertake this subject through the lens of the oeuvre of the cold wave band Variété and the punk bands Abaddon and Kompania Karna. Along with other incarnations of the Polish underground, bands from Bydgoszcz wrestled with the obstacles and absurdities of the communist reality. They struggled with the feelings of their impotence in the face of state-driven determinism in order to make a permanent mark on Polish musical history. Despite of this and thanks to their powerful, artistically and ideologically inspirational message, they became an integral part of this fascinating historical era.

Estimation of Wind Turbine Blade Icing Volume Based on Binocular Vision

Icing on wind turbine blades in cold and humid weather has become a detrimental factor limiting their efficient operation, and traditional methods for detecting blade icing have various limitations. Therefore, this paper proposes a non-contact ice volume estimation method based on binocular vision and improved image processing algorithms. The method employs a stereo matching algorithm that combines dynamic windows, multi-feature fusion, and reordering, integrating gradient, color, and other information to generate matching costs. It utilizes a cross-based support region for cost aggregation and generates the final disparity map through a Winner-Take-All (WTA) strategy and multi-step optimization. Subsequently, combining image processing techniques and three-dimensional reconstruction methods, the geometric shape of the ice is modeled, and its volume is estimated using numerical integration methods. Experimental results on volume estimation show that for ice blocks with regular shapes, the errors between the measured and actual volumes are 5.28%, 8.35%, and 4.85%, respectively; for simulated icing on wind turbine blades, the errors are 5.06%, 6.45%, and 9.54%, respectively. The results indicate that the volume measurement errors under various conditions are all within 10%, meeting the experimental accuracy requirements for measuring the volume of ice accumulation on wind turbine blades. This method provides an accurate and efficient solution for detecting blade icing without the need to modify the blades, making it suitable for wind turbines already in operation. However, in practical applications, it may be necessary to consider the impact of illumination and environmental changes on visual measurements.

Impact of Euroatlantic blockings on the occurrence of heat waves and cold spells in Poland

Impact of Euroatlantic blockings on the occurrence of heat waves and cold spells in Poland

A Critical Perspective on Photothermal De-Icing.

To tackle the formidable challenges posed by extreme cold weather events, significant advancements have been made in developing functional surfaces capable of efficiently removing accreted ice. Nevertheless, many of these surfaces still require external energy input, such as electrical power, which raises concerns regarding their alignment with global sustainability goals. Over the past decade, increasing attention has been directed toward photothermal surface designs that harness solar energy-a resource available on Earth in quantities exceeding the total reserves of coal and oil combined. By converting solar energy into heat, these designs enable the transformation of the interfacial solid-solid contact (ice-substrate) into a liquid-solid contact (water-substrate), significantly reducing interfacial adhesion and facilitating rapid ice removal. This critical perspective begins by emphasizing the advantages of photothermal design over traditional de-icing methods. It then delves into an in-depth analysis of three primary photothermal mechanisms, examining how these principles have expanded the scope of de-icing technologies and contributed to advancements in photothermal surface design. Finally, key fundamental and technical challenges are identified, offering strategic guidelines for future research aimed at enabling practical, real-world applications.

Investigating the December 2023 warm-to-cold weather whiplash in China using a novel flash-cold metric

Abstract In mid-December 2023, China experienced an unprecedented cold wave that marked a critical stage in a negative temperature-related weather whiplash event (WWE), which was characterized by a rapid shift from extreme warmth to extreme cold. The traditional metric—temperature variance—is insufficient to reflect the temporal evolution of this WWE. Therefore, we introduce a novel metric termed "flash-cold" to identify the sharp and significant decrease in surface air temperature. This new metric not only effectively captures recent WWEs trend in line with variance-based metric but also allows daily tracking of temperature shifts. Using the flash-cold metric, we delineate the evolution of the WWE case in China into four phases: first warm spell, first flash-cold, second warm spell, and second flash-cold (corresponding to the unprecedented cold wave). A recently proposed Lagrangian temperature budget analysis highlights the crucial role of high-latitude blocking circulation in both flash-cold phases through cold advection. The first flash-cold phase was triggered by backward cold air masses driven by upstream systems associated with Okhotsk blocking, while the second flash-cold phase developed when the trough downstream of Ural blocking moved eastward and rotated counterclockwise. In contrast, subtropical systems moderated the decreasing temperature during the first flash-cold through diabatic processes but had minimal impact on the second flash-cold, helping to explain why the second flash-cold was more intense. From a multiscale interaction perspective, the development of these blocking circulations was facilitated by a background of exceptionally weak meridional gradient of potential vorticity, the smallest recorded since 1979.&amp;#xD;