Cold Phase Of ENSO Research Articles

Climatic variability in the vicinity of Wallis, Futuna, and Samoa islands (13°–15° S, 180°–170° W)

Mean conditions, seasonal, and ENSO-related (El Niño Southern Oscillation) variability in the vicinity of Wallis, Futuna, and Samoa islands (13°–15° S, 180°–170° W) over the 1973–1995 period are analysed for wind pseudo-stress, satellite-derived and in situ precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity (SSS), sea level, and 0–450 m temperature and geostrophic current. The mean local conditions reflect the presence of the large scale features such as the western Pacific warm pool, the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), and the South Pacific anticyclonic gyre. The seasonal changes are closely related to the meridional migrations of the SPCZ, which passes twice a year over the region of study. During the warm phase of ENSO (El Niño), we generally observe saltier-than-average SSS (of the order of 0.4), consistent with a rainfall deficit (0.4 m yr −1), a hint of colder-than-average surface temperature is also identified in subsurface (0.3°C), a weak tendency for westward geostrophic current anomalies (2 cm s −1 at the surface), a sea level decrease (5–10 cm), together with easterly (5 m 2s −2) and well marked southerly (10 m 2s −2) wind pseudo-stress anomalies. Anomalies of similar magnitude, but of opposite sign, are detected during the cold phase of ENSO (La Niña). While these ENSO-related changes apply prior to the 1990s, they were not observed during the 1991–1994 period, which appears atypical.

Who is El Niño?

It is a curious story, about a phenomenon we first welcomed as a blessing but now view with dismay, if not horror [Philander, 1998]. We named it El Niño for the child Jesus, provided it with relatives—La Niña and ENSO—and are devoting innumerable studies to the description and idealization of this family. These scriptures provide such a broad spectrum of historical, cultural, and scientific perspectives that there is now confusion about the identity of El Niño. Trenberth [1997] summarizes the situation as follows.The atmospheric component tied to El Niño is termed the “Southern Oscillation.” Scientists often call the phenomenon where the atmosphere and ocean collaborate ENSO, short for El Niño‐Southern Oscillation. El Niño then corresponds to the warm phase of ENSO. The opposite “La Niña” (“the girl” in Spanish) phase consists of a basinwide cooling of the tropical Pacific and thus the cold phase of ENSO. However, for the public, the term for the whole phenomenon is “El Niño.”

Interannual Variability of Monthly Precipitation in Costa Rica

The varied monthly precipitation data of stations across Costa Rica are assigned to one of five regions, each of which displays a distinct precipitation regime. Peaks and troughs in each regional regime reflect the relative contribution and timing of the major precipitation-bearing winds flowing from the Pacific, the Caribbean, and continental North America. Lag cross-correlations with a Southern Oscillation index reveal different regional associations, and at differing times, with fluctuating atmosphere-ocean conditions in the tropical Pacific. Patterns of correlations are coherent within each region, but display interregional differences that are more marked than previously suggested. The Pacific coast experiences drought shortly before and during the onset of an ENSO event. The Caribbean coast receives increased summer precipitation but decreased winter rains during these episodes. The interior regions of the country display a mixed response to these events. In the years following a warm phase ENSO the signs change abruptly as the cold ENSO phase sets in, indicating a more complex sequence of environmental changes than a simple, single drought. This is most pronounced along the Caribbean coast, where the summer and winter seasonal rainfalls exhibit opposing associations to the same atmosphere-ocean conditions.

Climate predictability experiments with a general circulation model

The atmospheric response to the evolution of the global sea surface temperatures from 1979 to 1992 is studied using the Max-Planck-Institut 19 level atmospheric general circulation model, ECHAM3 at T 42 resolution. Five separate 14-year integrations are performed and results are presented for each individual realization and for the ensemble-averaged response. The results are compared to a 30-year control integration using a climate monthly mean state of the sea surface temperatures and to analysis data. It is found that the ECHAM3 model, by and large, does reproduce the observed response pattern to El Nino and La Niña. During the El Nino events, the subtropical jet streams in both hemispheres are intensified and displaced equatorward, and there is a tendency towards weak upper easterlies over the equator. The Southern Oscillation is a very stable feature of the integrations and is accurately reproduced in all experiments. The inter-annual variability at middle- and high-latitudes, on the other hand, is strongly dominated by chaotic dynamics, and the tropical SST forcing only modulates the atmospheric circulation. The potential predictability of the model is investigated for six different regions. Signal to noise ratio is large in most parts of the tropical belt, of medium strength in the western hemisphere and generally small over the European area. The ENSO signal is most pronounced during the boreal spring. A particularly strong signal in the precipitation field in the extratropics during spring can be found over the southern United States. Western Canada is normally warmer during the warm ENSO phase, while northern Europe is warmer than normal during the ENSO cold phase. The reason is advection of warm air due to a more intense Pacific low than normal during the warm ENSO phase and a more intense Icelandic low than normal during the cold ENSO phase, respectively.

Climate predictability experiments with a general circulation model

The atmospheric response to the evolution of the global sea surface temperatures from 1979 to 1992 is studied using the Max-Planck-Institut 19 level atmospheric general circulation model, ECHAM3 at T 42 resolution. Five separate 14-year integrations are performed and results are presented for each individual realization and for the ensemble-averaged response. The results are compared to a 30-year control integration using a climate monthly mean state of the sea surface temperatures and to analysis data. It is found that the ECHAM3 model, by and large, does reproduce the observed response pattern to El Nino and La Nina. During the El Nino events, the subtropical jet streams in both hemispheres are intensified and displaced equatorward, and there is a tendency towards weak upper easterlies over the equator. The Southern Oscillation is a very stable feature of the integrations and is accurately reproduced in all experiments. The inter-annual variability at middle- and high-latitudes, on the other hand, is strongly dominated by chaotic dynamics, and the tropical SST forcing only modulates the atmospheric circulation. The potential predictability of the model is investigated for six different regions. Signal to noise ratio is large in most parts of the tropical belt, of medium strength in the western hemisphere and generally small over the European area. The ENSO signal is most pronounced during the boreal spring. A particularly strong signal in the precipitation field in the extratropics during spring can be found over the southern United States. Western Canada is normally warmer during the warm ENSO phase, while northern Europe is warmer than normal during the ENSO cold phase. The reason is advection of warm air due to a more intense Pacific low than normal during the warm ENSO phase and a more intense Icelandic low than normal during the cold ENSO phase, respectively.