Cold Phase Research Articles

Quantifying the Strength of the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole in Influencing the OND Rainfall Season in Tanzania

The current paper examines the strength of variability between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in influencing October to December (OND) rainfall over the bimodal rainfall regime of Tanzania. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF), correlation analysis, and composite analysis were used during the data analysis. The results show more rainfall distribution over the western part of the Lake Victoria basin and to the peripheral of the northern coast of the country, thus suggesting that, during the OND rainfall season, the onset starts in the western part of the Lake Victoria basin, then spreads to the rest of the areas under investigation as the season progresses. Furthermore, on the spatial scale, the findings revealed that there is a strong correlation between IOD and ENSO indices and OND rains in the northeastern highlands. Furthermore, a robust temporal correlation is revealed between the mean OND rains over the bimodal rainfall areas and IOD (r = 0.70) compared to ENSO (r = 0.62). The anomalous warming over the western Indian Ocean (positive IOD) has a faster response to OND rains over the bimodal rainfall regime of Tanzania compared to the remote influence induced by anomalous warming from the central equatorial Pacific Ocean (warm phase of ENSO). Meanwhile, dry years are associated with negative IOD and the cold phase of ENSO conditions. The findings offer valuable insights on strategies for mitigating the effects associated with extreme weather events and improving resilience in Tanzania.

Climate change, society, and pandemic disease in Roman Italy between 200 BCE and 600 CE.

Records of past societies confronted with natural climate change can illuminate social responses to environmental stress and environment-disease connections, especially when locally constrained high-temporal resolution paleoclimate reconstructions are available. We present a temperature and precipitation reconstruction for ~200 BCE to ~600 CE, from a southern Italian marine sedimentary archive-the first high-resolution (~3 years) climate record from the heartland of the Roman Empire, stretching from the so-called Roman Climate Optimum to the Late Antique Little Ice Age. We document phases of instability and cooling from ~100 CE onward but more notably after ~130 CE. Pronounced cold phases between ~160 to 180 CE, ~245 to 275 CE, and after ~530 CE associate with pandemic disease, suggesting that climate stress interacted with social and biological variables. The importance of environment-disease dynamics in past civilizations underscores the need to incorporate health in risk assessments of climate change.

Connection between El Niño Deep Convection and Precipitation in Northeast Brazil

The indices reflecting the warm or cold phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon are commonly based on sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in cleverly chosen sectors in the Tropical Pacific Ocean. These climate indices, used as predictors of remote climate oscillations, have been successful in most studies of the effects of ENSO forcings on drought anomalies or unexpected floods worldwide. However, there is one difficulty that bothers researchers: the diversity of these remote effects. One of the regions of the world that has attracted the attention of scholars of the remote effects of ENSO oscillations is Northeast Brazil. The main reason for this interest is the great vulnerability of this region to droughts due to the social and economic fragilities that have persisted there for more than two centuries. This study proposes the experimental use of essential atmospheric indices, such as convective instability, as indicators of the presence of cumulonimbus in the Tropical Pacific in response to El Niño episodes. It is well known that the remote effects of El Niño events occur due to cumulonimbus formation in the Tropical Pacific in response to the additional supply of heat and humidity in areas with warm surface waters. However, these tropical cumulus clusters respond not only to surface heating but also to other forces associated with atmospheric circulation. This study has shown that such cumulonimbi can form in areas that are slightly apart from the sectors with the greatest surface heating.

Artificial neural network-based temperature prediction of a lunar orbiter in thermal vacuum test: Data-driven reduced-order models

This study presents data-driven reduced-order models (ROMs) of a lunar orbiter based on principal component analysis (PCA) and artificial neural networks (ANNs) for a ground thermal vacuum test to simulate space thermal environments. We employed a radial basis function network (RBFN) and deep neural network (DNN) from among the various types of ANNs. PCA extracts features from high-dimensional data, such as thermal analysis data. It is utilized in machine learning algorithms as a preprocessing step before inputting the data into neural networks. This process improves the convergence speed and training performances compared to using neural networks alone. The coefficients of the extracted principal component modes were regressed using the RBFN and DNN. Twenty thermal design parameters comprising infrared emissivity, effective thermal conductivity, thermal contact conductance coefficients, and thermal conductance were used to train the ROMs. We conducted training and test of the proposed models during the cold and hot balance phases of the ground test. Consequently, the temperature map can be estimated in seconds for the new design parameters, and the model results are consistent with thermal analysis and measurement data.

Performance analysis of several EVs batteries thermal management systems under hot-arid climatic conditions of Morocco

The transition towards a 100 % renewable energy society has become imperative to mitigate the impacts of climate change and reduce CO2 emissions. To attain this objective, the use of electric vehicles (EVs) is crucial, particularly considering that the transportation sector is a major contributor to pollution and energy consumption. However, for optimal performance, EV batteries need to operate within a temperature range of 15 to 35 °C, which poses challenges in hot desert locations like Morocco. This paper aims to evaluate the effectiveness of three Thermal Management Systems (TMS): (i) aluminum minichannel, (ii) aluminum cold plate and (iii) phase change material under various climate conditions in Morocco. All three TMSs are commonly used and easily manufacturable for electric vehicle batteries, specifically in the hot-arid climate of Morocco. The assessment combines computational fluid dynamics (CFD) with on-site meteorological data collected from different climatic zones. The findings reveal that among the examined TMS options, the aluminum mini-channel system proves to be the most suitable for EVs operating in Moroccan climates. This system effectively maintains the battery temperature within the desired range, with maximum temperatures (Tmax) of 27.30 °C in Oujda, 27.34 °C in Errachidia, and 27.29 °C in Agadir. Furthermore, the aluminum mini-channel TMS exhibits the lowest pumping power requirement (3.89e-7 W) and introduces the least additional mass (13.63 %) compared to all the other examined TMS systems.

Analysis of Anomalies Due to the ENSO and Long-Term Changes in Extreme Precipitation Indices Using Data from Ground Stations

In this work, the influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Extreme Precipitation Indices (EPIs) was analyzed, and these ENSO-forced anomalies were compared with the long-term change in the EPIs. The annual time series of the EPIs were built from 880 precipitation stations that contained daily records between 1979 and 2022. These daily time series were filled, then the eleven (11) annual time series of the EPIs were built. To calculate ENSO-driven anomalies, the several phases of the phenomenon were considered (i.e., warm phase or El Niño years, cold phase or La Niña years, and normal or neutral years). For a particular EPI, the values calculated for the extreme phases of the ENSO were grouped, and these groups were compared with the group made up of the EPI values for the neutral years. To calculate the long-term change, two periods (1979–1996 and 2004–2021) were considered to group the EPI values. Maps showing the magnitude and significance of the assessed change/anomaly were constructed. The results allowed us to identify that the EPIs are generally “wetter” (i.e., higher extreme precipitation, longer wet periods, shorter dry periods, etc.) during La Niña hydrological years, while the opposite changes are observed during El Niño years. Furthermore, ENSO-induced anomalies are more important than the long-term changes.

Spatial Patterns of Vegetation Activity Related to ENSO in Northern South America

AbstractInterannual variability of vegetation activity (i.e., photosynthesis) is strongly correlated with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Globally, a reduction in carbon uptake by terrestrial ecosystems has been observed during the ENSO warm phase (El Niño) and the opposite during the cold phase (La Niña). However, this global perspective obscures the heterogeneous impacts of ENSO at regional scales. Particularly, ENSO has contrasting impacts on climate in northern South America (NSA) depending on the ENSO phase and geographical location, which in turn affect the activity of vegetation. Furthermore, changes of vegetation activity during multiple ENSO events are not well understood yet. In this study, we investigated the spatial and temporal differences in vegetation activity associated with ENSO variability and its three phases (El Niño, La Niña, Neutral) to identify hotspots of ENSO impacts in NSA, a region dominated by rainforest and savannas. To achieve this, we investigated time series of vegetation variables from 2001 to 2014 at moderate spatial resolution (0.0083°). Data were aggregated through dimensionality reduction analysis (i.e., Global Principal Component Analysis). The leading principal component served as a proxy of vegetation activity (VAC). We calculated the cross‐correlation between VAC and the multivariate ENSO index separately for each ENSO phase. Our results show that El Niño phase has a stronger impact on vegetation activity both in intensity and duration than La Niña phase. Moreover, seasonally dry ecoregions were more susceptible to El Niño impacts on vegetation activity. Understanding these differences is key for regional adaptation and differentiated management of ecosystems.

Implementation of Battery Thermal Management System for High-Performance Electromobility Application: A Hybrid Cold Plate and Phase Change Material Approach

Implementation of Battery Thermal Management System for High-Performance Electromobility Application: A Hybrid Cold Plate and Phase Change Material Approach

Single and Double Microencapsulation of Organic Thermochromic Material

With the increase in temperature, urban areas face issues like urban heat islands. The reduction of green vegetation across urban areas has led to a tremendous rise in temperature. Many studies suggest significant cities are currently experiencing this issue to a greater extent. Many researchers are working on building paints and dyes to reduce the heat intake of the building. Organic thermochromic materials are one such alternative for building dye and stain. The main issue with using organic thermochromic materials is that they quickly degrade under sunlight, which makes them less useful for building paint. To overcome this issue, many organic thermochromic black dye materials (OTCBDM) are encapsulated with inorganic materials such as metal oxide, which block sunlight and reduce the effect of degradation. Encapsulation is achieved via the emulsification method of metal oxide. This paper deals with the single and double microencapsulation methods with different surfactant concentrations, metal oxides, and combinations thereof. Various techniques were used such as Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), scanning electron microscopy (SEM) with energy‐dispersive X‐ray spectroscopy technique (EDS), and differential scanning calorimeter (DSC), UV‐Vis spectroscopy, thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), and CIE Lab space analysis to determine the materials’ encapsulation and chromatic nature. The FTIR spectra suggested the absorption peaks for the Ti─OH bond (at 814, 903, and 913 cm−1) and Si─OH group (at 1,084 and 1,178 cm−1) for the commercial dye encapsulated with TiO2 and SiO2. The Ti─O─Si bonds at 1,054 and 1,145 cm−1 showed for the double encapsulation of SiO2 and TiO2 either (i) doped or in (ii) layered structures. From the EDS analysis, we can clearly say that the presence of SiO2 and TiO2 indicates the encapsulation of the commercial thermochromic black dye material. The SEM micrographs of the TiO2 encapsulation of OTCBDM seem more promising and uniform core–shell structure formation with CTAB as a surfactant than the SDBS. Moreover, the SEM microstructure results of double encapsulation using both TiO2 and SiO2 suggested thicker coating of particles when compared with single encapsulated counterparts. The cold phase of layered double encapsulation of OTCBDM + SiO2/TiO2 shows a darker color than the doped combination as obtained from the CIE Lab results. This feature suggested that an efficient encapsulation and chromatic transition are achieved in a layered combination of double encapsulation than in a doped combination. The DSC spectra indicated the increase in enthalpy at the heat cycle from 94.147 J/g for the SiO2 microencapsulated OTCBDM sample compared to all other samples shows thermal energy storage behavior for outdoor building applications. The UV–Vis absorbance spectra show two distinct peaks at 470 and at 610 nm related to the OTCBDM. The single‐layer encapsulated organic thermochromic black dye material shows less absorbance compared to the plain organic thermochromic black dye material. The double encapsulated sample has the highest absorbance compared to all other samples suggesting the material having better retention of peaks at 470 and at 610 nm. The thermographic analysis (TGA) shows when compared to the plain and single encapsulated OTCBDM samples, the double encapsulated samples demonstrated higher thermal endurance characteristics due to thicker layer coatings of the shell over the core structure. The novelty of this work relies on the double encapsulation of OTCBDMs using SiO2 and TiO2 to improve the photodegradation behavior of the organic core dye particles, and we have demonstrated that the cationic surfactant CTAB outperforms than the SDBS in microencapsulation processes.

Study on lean combustion of ammonia-hydrogen mixtures in a pre-chamber engine

Ammonia holds promise for achieving zero carbon emissions from internal combustion engines. The pre-chamber turbulent jet ignition, characterized by multipoint distributed ignition and rapid combustion, could be applied to ammonia combustion to extend combustion limits and stability. This study investigates the impacts of hydrogen energy fraction (Hfrac), equivalence ratio, and ignition timing on the combustion and emission characteristics of ammonia-hydrogen mixture at lean combustion conditions in a pre-chamber (PC) marine engine by CFD Simulation. In H2-fuel active PC mode, increasing the hydrogen content or achieving stoichiometric combustion within the PC will shorten the cold jet phase and accelerate the formation of a more intense hot jet. As the Hfrac and the equivalence ratio in the main-chamber increase, the combustion pressure, temperature, and heat release rate (HRR) rise, while the combustion duration shortens due to enhanced reactivity, potentially leading to end gas auto-ignition and knock due to lower auto-ignition energy of the mixture. NO primarily forms near the flame front, and both NO concentration and the generation area increase with an increase in hydrogen content and equivalence ratio. Fuel-NO is likely to be the dominant factor in NO generation with lean combustion conditions. N2O, as a product of NH3 low-temperature combustion, is mainly concentrated near the flame front. An increase in unburned NH3 emissions corresponds to an increase in N2O emissions. Delaying the ignition timing to reduce NOx emissions is primarily achieved by controlling NO emissions, even though there is a slight increase in N2O.

Interdecadal change of Tibetan Plateau vortices during the past 4 decades and its possible mechanism

The Tibetan Plateau vortices (TPVs) are mesoscale weather systems active at the near-surface of the Tibetan Plateau (TP), which are one of the major precipitation-producing systems over the TP and its surrounding areas. TPVs mainly occur in the warm season from May to September. In this paper, we investigated the interdecadal change of TPVs in the warm seasons of 1979–2020 with the six widely used reanalysis datasets. A significant change of the TPVs frequency appears around the mid-1990s, associated with less TPVs during 1979–1995 and more TPVs during 1996–2020, which is constant among the multiple reanalysis datasets. The abrupt change of TPVs is caused by a transition of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) from a cold phase to a warm phase in the mid-1990s. The shift of AMO leads to a silk-road pattern-like wave train and a spatially asymmetric change of tropospheric temperature. It modifies the intensity of the subtropical westerly jet and the TP heating, leading to the interdecadal change of TPV activities.

Optically stimulated luminescence dating of Paleolithic sites reveals population shifts in North China during the last glacial period

The Greater Khingan and Yanshan mountain ranges in northern China not only constitute a significant physical obstacle to the northward movement of monsoon circulation, but also represent a natural barrier for human migration and cultural interactions between in-migrating Paleolithic populations and those indigenous to East Asia during the Late Pleistocene. We dated two Paleolithic sites, Yangzhuangxishan and Taiziling, located in the southern piedmont of the Yanshan Mountains with artifacts typified by simple core and flake technology associated with foraging populations, to ∼39–29 ka and ∼ 52–47 ka respectively, using the optically stimulated luminescence dating method. Our results indicate that northern China as far south as the Yanshan Mountains was occupied mainly by autochthonous East Asian Paleolithic populations using a core and flake lithic technology, although during this period Initial Upper Paleolithic (IUP) modern humans and Mousterian populations dispersed into East Asia. By synthesizing and integrating the ages of Northeast Asian Paleolithic sequences during the last glacial period (ca. 70–10 ka), we analyzed spatio-temporal variations in Late Pleistocene human populations during relatively cold stadial events (MIS 4 & 2) and warmer interstadials (e.g., MIS 3), revealing an “ebb and flow” pattern for migrations of Western IUP/Mousterian populations and indigenous core and flake technology populations in East Asia corresponding to the advance and retreat of the East Asian monsoon regime. The subsequent extremely cold climate phase engendered a major population shift during the Last Glacial Maximum (ca. 26.5–19 ka) which drove the reduction of both these Paleolithic populations, but afterward facilitated the emergence and rapid dispersal of microlithic technologies in East Asia. The peoples associated with microlithic technologies achieved their maximum geographical extent after the Bølling-Allerød Late Glacial interstadial event (ca. 14.7–12.9 ka) and then gradually decreased, perhaps due to the development of agriculture after ∼13 ka with concomitant increasing settlement stability.

Modulation of the link between the Hadley circulation and the meridional structure of tropical SSTs by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

This paper investigates the effects of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) on the relationship between the Hadley circulation (HC) and the different meridional structures of the tropical sea surface temperature (SST). The response of the HC to SSTs shows inconsistent variations between the warm and cold phases of the AMO. The response of the HC to SSTs during the cold phase of the AMO is similar to that seen in the long-term and seasonal cycles. However, during the warm AMO phase, the magnitude of this response is significantly reduced. This significant difference in the response is caused mainly by the weakened response amplitude of the equatorially asymmetric HC and SST. The potential mechanisms associated with this suppression are also investigated, and they relate primarily to differences in the SST meridional anomalies within the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP). During the AMO warm phase, the profile of SST anomalies in the IPWP exhibits characteristics similar to an equatorially symmetric distribution, which weakens the equatorially asymmetric component of the tropical SST and then contributes to the suppression of the response ratio. However, the amplitudes of the insignificant negative SST anomalies in the northern and southern IPWP are similar during the cold AMO phase. This distribution of SST anomalies has a minimal impact on the variation of SST gradients. Therefore, the response ratio during the cold AMO phase is comparable to that observed in the long-term and seasonal cycles. Other atmospheric reanalysis data are used to further confirm these results.

Climate-related habitat variations of Humboldt squid in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean

An integrated habitat suitability index (HSI) model was developed in this study for Dosidicus gigas in the eastern equatorial waters of the Pacific Ocean to explore climate-related spatial and temporal variability in the habitat distribution pattern based on three crucial environmental variables: sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface salinity (SSS) and chlorophyll-a concentration (Chl-a). Results revealed that the HSI model could accurately predict potential habitats for D. gigas. The habitat suitability varied significantly by month, with highest suitability in April and lowest in March. Besides, from December to May, the longitudinal gravity center of the fishing grounds (LONG) and the HSI overall shifted eastward and the latitudinal gravity center shifted northward then southward. In comparison to the warm ENSO phases in 2019, the cold ENSO phases in 2018 produced increased suitable habitat from December to May, leading to a significantly higher CPUE. Prospective high-quality habitats in 2018 primarily occurred in the western regions, with the exception of December, which resulted in a more westward distribution of LONG from January to May. High-quality habitats moved northward from December to February and southward from March to May 2018, compared to minor latitudinal movement in 2019. It was inferred that annual variations in squid abundance and distribution were largely affected by the SST-related habitat pattern of D. gigas in the eastern equatorial waters. Our findings suggested that D. gigas habitats clearly varied by month and year and were greatly influenced by climate-induced environmental changes.

Intermediate mass black hole feedback in dwarf galaxy simulations with a resolved ISM and accurate nuclear stellar dynamics

AbstractRecent observations have established that dwarf galaxies can host black holes of intermediate mass (IMBH, 100Mȯ < MIMBH ≲ 105 Mȯ). With modern numerical models, we can test the growth of IMBHs as well as their evolutionary impact on the host galaxy. Our novel subsolar-mass (0.8 solar mass) resolution simulations of dwarf galaxies (M* = 2 × 107 Mȯ) have a resolved three-phase interstellar medium and account for non-equilibrium heating, cooling, and chemistry processes. The stellar initial mass function is fully sampled between 0.08–150 Mȯ while massive stars can form HII regions and explode as resolved supernovae. The stellar dynamics around the IMBH is integrated accurately with a regularization scheme. We present a viscous accretion disk model for the IMBH with momentum, energy, and mass conserving wind feedback. We demonstrate how the IMBH can grow from accretion of the cold and warm gas phase and how the presence of the IMBH and its feedback impacts the gas phase structure.

A comparative study of the atmospheric water vapor in the Atacama and Namib Desert

The importance of water vapor in arid and hyperarid regions motivates a comparative study in the Atacama and Namib deserts, a natural laboratory to test the role of topography in present-day climate. Based on ERA5 reanalysis evaluated by satellite and ground-based instruments, we focus on the climatological water vapor seasonal cycle and interannual variability offshore the deserts, distinguishing between the free troposphere (FT) and the marine boundary layer (MBL) moisture. In the Namib, moisture variability is strongly controlled by air mass transport. For example, between austral fall and winter, an easterly continental warm and cloud-free air mass settles over the coast, reducing the MBL height to a few hundred meters and decreasing humidity. In summer, the easterly winds are also present, bringing moisture from the center of the continent to the FT of the Namib, along with clouds and rainfall. This feature is intensified during the cold phase of ENSO (La Niña). In contrast, the Andean Cordillera blocks any air mass exchange between the continent and the MBL in the Atacama, allowing the development of stable southerly winds along the coast that transport cold air over warmer waters due to the early westward turn of the Humboldt Current. This induces a strong coupling between SST and MBL moisture, which is enhanced by a permanent stratocumulus cloud cover. In addition, the FT remains drier than the Namib for most of the year due to the predominance of westerly dry air in the region. ENSO is not correlated with the MBL moisture offshore Atacama, and it is the local SST that plays a major role in modulating interannual moisture variability. Only in winter, ENSO seems to impact the FT by increasing the moisture transport from the mid-latitudes during the warm phase (El Niño). We hypothesize that the differences in moisture seasonality and its controlling mechanisms are strongly related to differences in topography and the resulting circulation patterns. Furthermore, similar moisture transport and variability may have been part of a Paleo-Atacama when its topography was similar to the present-day Namib Desert.

Changes in ENSO Modulation of the Distribution of Rapidly Intensifying Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific in Boreal Autumn

Abstract This work explores the modulation of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) on the relationship between the occurrence position of rapid intensification (RI) events of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the western North Pacific (WNP) in boreal autumn and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). From the warm to cold phase of the PDO, the occurrence position of WNP RI events experiences a significant westward shift of 5.5° in El Niño years and a significant northward shift of 4.5° in La Niña years. The strengthening of thermodynamic conditions west of 160°N plays a dominant role in the westward shift of RI events in El Niño years, and the northward shift in La Niña years is associated with the expansion of areas with warm sea surface temperature, high tropical cyclone heat potential and midlevel relative humidity, strengthening of relative vorticity north of 20°N, and weakening of dynamic conditions within 10°–20°N. During the PDO cold phase, the descending branch of the Walker circulation over the western Pacific is weak and shifts west of 140°E in El Niño years, whereas it is much stronger in La Niña years. In addition, the Hadley circulation over the WNP shows little change during El Niño, but the ascending branch around 10°N expands to 20°N during La Niña. These trends reflect the changing responses of the WNP environment to ENSO variation and are consistent with the changing distribution of WNP RI events. Moreover, during the PDO cold phases, SST over the north Indian Ocean is much warmer, and anomalous anticyclonic circulation occurs in the WNP in boreal spring (summer and autumn) during the developing phase of El Niño (La Niña) years, which may also contribute to strengthening the thermodynamic conditions over the WNP.

GRACE-based groundwater drought in the Indochina Peninsula during 1979–2020: Changing properties and possible teleconnection mechanisms

Groundwater is very important for human productivity and daily life, hydrological cycle regulation, and ecosystem stability. However, due to the complex mechanisms of groundwater drought, the spatial and temporal variations of groundwater drought and its driving mechanisms are still not fully understood, especially in Indochina Peninsula. In this work, we used a reconstructed long-term terrestrial water storage dataset from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) emission and a GRACE-based groundwater drought index to investigate the spatial and temporal characteristics of groundwater drought during 1979–2020 in the Indochina Peninsula. The possible teleconnection mechanisms between groundwater drought and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and El Niño Modoki (ENSO_M) were also investigated using cross wavelet transform method. The results show that groundwater drought worsens significantly during 1979–2020, and becomes much more frequent and intensified after 2000 in the southern Indochina Peninsula. Both univariate and bivariate (logic ‘or’ and ‘and’) return periods for duration, severity, and peak of groundwater drought are short in the southern Indochina Peninsula, and thus the risk of groundwater drought is high. The IOD, ENSO, and ENSO_M can reduce the intensity of groundwater drought to a certain extent during the warm phases, but only ENSO_M tends to significantly exacerbate the intensity of groundwater drought during the cold phases in the southern Indochina Peninsula. The variations in groundwater drought are dominated by ENSO_M, and are also coupled influenced by the IOD and ENSO in the southern Indochina Peninsula. The results provide valuable information for the sustainable ecological environment and socioeconomic development, especially development of groundwater drought early warning and prediction models in the Indochina Peninsula.

Caribbean salinity anomalies contributed to variable North Atlantic circulation and climate during the Common Era.

Paleoceanographic reconstructions show that the strength of North Atlantic currents decreased during the Little Ice Age. In contrast, the role of ocean circulation in climate regulation during earlier historical epochs of the Common Era (C.E.) remains unclear. Here, we reconstruct sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity in the Caribbean Basin for the past 1700 years using the isotopic and elemental composition of planktic foraminifera tests. Centennial-scale SST and salinity variations in the Caribbean co-occur with (hydro)climate changes in the Northern Hemisphere and are linked to a North Atlantic SST forcing. Cold phases around 600, 800, and 1400 to 1600 C.E. are characterized by Caribbean salinification and Gulf of Mexico freshening that implies reductions in the strength of North Atlantic surface circulation. We suggest that the associated changes in the meridional salt advection contributed to the historical climate variability of the C.E.

New Insights into Multiyear La Niña Dynamics from the Perspective of a Near-Annual Ocean Process

Abstract El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibits highly asymmetric temporal evolutions between its warm and cold phases. While El Niño events usually terminate rapidly after their mature phase and show an already established transition into the cold phase by the following summer, many La Niña events tend to persist throughout the second year and even reintensify in the ensuing winter. While many mechanisms were proposed, no consensus has been reached yet and the essential physical processes responsible for the multiyear behavior of La Niña remain to be illustrated. Here, we show that a unique ocean physical process operates during multiyear La Niña events. It is characterized by rapid double reversals of zonal ocean current anomalies in the equatorial Pacific and exhibits a fairly regular near-annual periodicity. Mixed-layer heat budget analyses reveal comparable contributions of the thermocline and zonal advective feedbacks to the SST anomaly growth in the first year of multiyear La Niña events; however, the zonal advective feedback plays a dominant role in the reintensification of La Niña events. Furthermore, the unique ocean process is identified to be closely associated with the preconditioning heat content state in the central to eastern equatorial Pacific before the first year of La Niña, which has been shown in previous studies to play an active role in setting the stage for the future reintensification of La Niña. Despite systematic underestimation, the above oceanic process can be broadly reproduced by state-of-the-art climate models, providing a potential additional source of predictability for the multiyear La Niña events.