Cold Events Research Articles

Effects of surface moisture flux on the formation and evolution of cold fog over complex terrain with large‐eddy simulation

AbstractThis study examines the effect of surface moisture flux on fog formation, as it is an essential factor of water vapor distribution that supports fog formation. A one‐way nested large‐eddy simulation embedded in the mesoscale community Weather Research and Forecasting model is used to examine the effect of surface moisture flux on a cold fog event over the Heber Valley on January 16, 2015. Results indicate that large‐eddy simulation successfully reproduces the fog over the mountainous valley, with turbulent mixing of the fog aloft in the valley downward. However, the simulated fog is too dense and has higher humidity, a larger mean surface moisture flux, more extensive liquid water content, and longer duration relative to the observations. The sensitivity of fog simulations to surface moisture flux is then examined. Results indicate that reduction of surface moisture flux leads to fog with a shorter duration and a lower height extension than the original simulation, as the decrease in surface moisture flux impairs water vapor transport from the surface. Consequently, the lower humidity combined with the cold air helps the model reproduce a realistic thin fog close to the observations. The outcomes of this study illustrate that a minor change in moisture flux can have a significant impact on the formation and evolution of fog events over complex terrain, even during the winter when moisture flux is typically very weak.

Response of Shallow-Water Temperature and Significant Wave Height to Sequential Tropical Cyclones in the Northeast Beibu Gulf

Using shallow-water buoy observations, reanalysis data, and numerical models, this study analyzes the variations in sea temperature and significant wave height (SWH) caused by two sequential tropical cyclones (TCs) ‘Lionrock’ and ‘Kompasu’ in October 2021 in the northeast Beibu Gulf, South China Sea. The results show that the sea surface temperature (SST) cooling of the nearshore waters was larger than the offshore water in the basin of the gulf, with the cooling amplitude and rate decreasing and the cooling time lagging behind wind increasing from coast to offshore. The near-surface temperature at the buoy station had a maximum decrease of 2.8 °C after ‘Lionrock’, and the decrease increased slightly to 3 °C after the stronger wind of ‘Kompasu’. The total decrease of 4.6 °C indicates that the sequential TCs had a superimposed effect on the cooling of the Beibu Gulf. The heat budget analysis revealed that the sea surface heat loss and the Ekman pumping rate in the nearshore waters during ‘Kompasu’ (−535 W/m2 and 5.8 × 10−4 m/s, respectively) were significantly higher than that (−418 W/m2 and 4 × 10−4 m/s) during ‘Lionrock’. On the other hand, the SST cooling (−1.2 °C) during the second TC is smaller than (−1.6 °C) the first weaker TC in the gulf basin, probably due to the deepening of the mixed layer. During the observation period, the waves in the Beibu Gulf were predominantly wind-driven. The maximum SWHs reached 1.58 m and 2.3 m at the bouy station near shore during the two TCs, and the SWH variation was highly correlated to the wind variation with a correlation of 0.95. The SWH increases from the nearshore to offshore waters during the TCs. The SAWN and ARCIRC coupled model results suggest that wave variations in the Beibu Gulf are primarily influenced by water depth, bottom friction, and whitecapping. Two days after the TCs, sea surface cooling and high waves appeared again due to a cold air event.

Histology, fatty acid composition, antioxidant and glycolipid metabolism, and transcriptome analyses of the acute cold stress response in Phoxinus lagowskii

Water temperature is a crucial environmental factor that significantly affects the physiological and biochemical processes of fish. Due to the occurrence of cold events in aquaculture, it is imperative to investigate how fish respond to cold stress. This study aims to uncover the mechanisms responds to acute cold stress by conducting a comprehensive analysis of the histomorphology, glycolipid metabolic and antioxidant enzymes, fatty acid composition and transcriptome at three temperatures (16 °C, 10 °C and 4 °C) in Phoxinus lagowskii. Our results showed that cold stress not damaged muscle microstructure but caused autophagy (at 10 °C). In addition, serum glucose (Glu) and triglycerides (TG) increased during cold stress. The activities of reactive oxygen species (ROS), superoxide dismutase (SOD), catalase (CAT), fructose phosphokinase (PFK), hexokinase (HK), pyruvate kinase (PK), and malondialdehyde (MDA) content in muscle were measured and analyzed. During cold stress, superoxide dismutase and catalase activities increased, reactive oxygen species content decreased. No significant difference in Glutathione peroxidase (GPx) activity, malondialdehyde and total cholesterol (T-CHO) contents among groups. Phosphokinase and pyruvate kinase activities decreased, and HK activity increased during cold stress. Our study resulted in the identification of a total of 25,400 genes, with 2524 genes showing differential expression across different temperature treatments. Furthermore, KEGG pathway indicated that some pathways upregulated during light cold stress (at 10 °C, including autophagy, and AMP-activated protein kinase (AMPK) signaling pathway. Additionally, circadian rhythm is among the most enriched pathways in genes up-regulated during severe cold stress (at 4 °C). Our findings offer valuable insights into how cold-water fish respond to cold stress.

Changes in chemical weathering regime of shelf sediments of the East China Sea controlled by sea-level and climatic changes since the last deglaciation

Chemical weathering of shelf sediments is important in driving the global elemental cycle and climate to maintain the earth’s habitability. However, the response mechanism between chemical weathering of shelf sediments and climate and sea-level changes is still unclear. This study focuses on core ECMZ located in the mud area of the East China Sea (ECS) inner shelf. The results indicate that the mechanisms controlling chemical weathering in the sediment of the ECS inner shelf differ at different timescales. On the orbital time scale, the Chemical Index of Alteration (CIA) indicates that the intensity of chemical weathering in sediments during the deglacial period was significantly higher than that during the Holocene. This was caused by shelf exposure during low sea-level periods when the sediments were fully exposed and the residence time in the weathering zone was long, leading the shelf sediments to undergo consistent and complete weathering under supply-limited conditions. In comparison, during cold events on the millennium-centennial time scale, such as Younger Dryas, 8.2 ka, and 4.2 ka, chemical weathering was weaker (lower CIA values) due to accelerated erosion as a result of lower temperatures and higher precipitation, which shortened the rocks’ residence in the weathering zone, resulting in the control of chemical weathering shifted from supply factors to kinetic ones, such as temperature and precipitation. Our findings suggest that on the orbital time scale, glacial shelf exposure could enhance chemical weathering, thereby reducing atmospheric CO2; on the millennium-centennial time scale, chemical weathering could rapidly respond to abrupt climate events.

Study of Cold Wave and Cold Stress in the Four Metropolitan Cities of India for the Period 1985–2020

Cold waves, cold nights and warm nights are major threats to human beings during winter due to climate change in different parts of India. The analysis of these has been studied for four major metropolitan cities (Chennai, Mumbai, Kolkata, and Delhi) of India during the period 1985–2020. The authors have used the 90th and 10th percentile threshold to identify the cold nights, warm nights and cold waves during the winter season. The degree of discomfort and cold stress category are identified using the Humidity Index (HD), and the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI). The results indicate that the cold night event in Mumbai is ~0.36% higher than both Kolkata and Chennai cities but it is ~0.42% higher than Delhi. The number of cold wave events in Delhi is 53.5% higher than in Kolkata during the period of the study. It is also observed from the study of UTCI that the possibility of slight cold stress in the Delhi region during cold nights is 59.36% more than in other metropolitan cities. The study indicates that in the winter season, the climate of Delhi is more dynamic but for Kolkata it is relatively less dynamic.

Evaluating the impact of historical climate and early human groups in the Araucaria Forest of eastern South America

It has been hypothesized that the Araucaria Forest in southern Brazil underwent expansions in the past, driven either by human groups or by climate fluctuations of the Holocene and Pleistocene. Fossil pollen records of the Paraná pine Araucaria angustifolia, a dominant tree in that forest, provide some insights into when those may have occurred. Still, the timing of those expansions has never been estimated. To infer past range shifts and shed light on their main drivers, we employed next‐generation DNA sequencing (ddRADseq), machine learning, and a comprehensive database of fossil pollen records into a study of historical demographic inference and paleo‐distribution modeling of the Paraná pine. We found that A. angustifolia comprises two populations expanding at different times: one in the Mantiqueira mountain chain, the other in the southern Brazilian plateau. The southern population began to expand during the Last Glacial Period ~ 70 kya, long before human arrival in South America. Still, genetic analyses support that humans later impacted this population, resulting in lower genetic diversity, higher inbreeding, and high levels of gene flow over large distances with a weak pattern of isolation‐by‐distance. It is possible this resulted from human influence on seed dispersal and germination on the southern Brazilian plateau. The Mantiqueira population, in contrast, expanded only recently (~ 3 kya). This timing coincides with Holocene climatic changes and human settlements established further south, although, to date, there is little archeological evidence of human impact in the Mantiqueira. In addition, multitemporal species distribution models built from a combination of present‐day and pollen records infer a range expansion of the Araucaria Forest during glacial times until the cold humid HS1 event (~ 16 kya), when the forest was most widespread, with no evidence of glacial refugia. The combination of genomic and spatial analyses suggests that both human and climatic controls played a role in the dynamics of the Araucaria Forest.

Global oceans suffer extreme heatwaves intensifying since the early 21st century: A new comprehensive index

As a result of global warming, major ocean basins have witnessed an increase in the number of extreme warm events and a decrease in the number of extreme cold events, increasing the number of marine heatwave (MHW) events. Previous quantification of MHW events has been limited to simple single metrics, which can only recognize some characteristics from a particular aspect. Here, we propose a new marine Heat Wave Comprehensive Index (HWCI) by fusing multiple metrics to characterize the scalable cumulative intensity of MHWs, which exhibits excellent identification reliability and superiority to effectively monitor the evolutionary patterns of various levels of MHW events. We find that five levels of global MHW events have presented an obvious spatial expansion and temporal enhancement pattern since the early 21st century, with the obvious spatial contraction (32.98 %) of weak events followed by the expansion (19.82 %) of extreme events at the highest growth rate of 0.07, primarily in the mid–low-latitude oceans and the Arctic. The results demonstrate that extreme MHW events dominate global MHW evolution patterns and that the expansion and intensification of such episodes have major implications for the event distribution and level structure. The new indicator is promising for directly measuring and identifying MHWs, and contributes to a more comprehensive understanding of the evolution of MHWs in the context of global climate change.

Factors controlling long-term carbon sequestration in the paleo-Yellow River delta: Implications for future delta management

River deltas have contributed to the regulation of atmospheric CO2 concentrations throughout Earth's history, but the capacity and controlling factors for deltas to serve as permanent carbon sinks over the long term are unclear. To address this issue, we carried out a high-resolution assessment of carbon burial in a well-dated sediment core (BXZK13) from the paleo-Yellow River delta on the west coast of the Bohai Bay. We found that the sedimentary environments in core BXZK13 since the Late Pleistocene (∼84 k cal yr B.P.) were divided into seven depositional units. The apparent mass accumulation rate (AMAR) of total organic carbon (TOC) and total inorganic carbon (TIC) varied significantly between depositional units. The average rates were highest in delta front deposits (TOC: 135 g m−2 yr−1, TIC: 333 g m−2 yr−1). Notably, the rates of carbon accumulation were dominated by TIC. The differences in the characteristics of TIC in the borehole compare to those of carbonates in Yellow River sediments and the positive correlation between TIC and Fe suggested that authigenic carbonate contributed significantly to long-term carbon burial in the delta. The apparent sedimentation rate (ASR) dominated the variations of the carbon AMAR, and the high clay and Fe content in the sediment enhanced TOC preservation and authigenic carbonate precipitation. Low concentrations of TIC were associated with several cold events, and there was a positive correlation between the chemical index of alteration and TIC. The implication was that climate may have affected the dynamics of inorganic carbon burial by regulating authigenic carbonate precipitation. These results enable a more thorough understanding of the factors that control long-term carbon sequestration, which is critical for both management purposes as well as assessment of the role of deltas in past and future climate change.

Expansion of Toxic Algal Blooms in Coastal and Marine Areas in the Philippines and Malaysia: Is It Climate Change Related?

This paper provides a review of toxic algal blooms in the Philippine and Malaysian coastal and marine systems, considering relevant available knowledge, including climate change dimension/s in the assessment of their recorded recent expansion. The first record of human toxicity in the Philippines associated with HABs/toxic algal blooms specifically was during the bloom of Pyrodinium bahamense in the Sorsogon, Samar, and Leyte waters in 1983. Since then, the species has been identified to occur and cause blooms in about 44 sites/areas in the country. Recent government reports, i.e., 2021, 2022, and 2023, have also identified other paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP) causative organisms (Gymnodinium catenatum, Alexandrium spp.) in the country. New records indicate that the presence of PSP causative species has been reported almost year-round in the Philippines. In Malaysia, PSP caused by P. bahamense was initially confined in 1981 to the state of Sabah, Malaysia Borneo, but since then, blooms of this species have been reported almost annually at different scales across the coastal waters of Sabah. P. bahamense and other cyst-forming dinoflagellates could be transported naturally or through human activities. Other eco-physiological and environment factors from the field and the laboratory have been used to study the bloom dynamics and transport of PSP causative species in several areas in the Philippines and Malaysia. More recently, plastics and other marine litter have been considered potential vectors of invasion/transport or expansion of dinoflagellates with other microorganisms. ENSO events have been observed to be stronger since 1950 compared with those recorded from 1850 to 1950. The extreme phases of the ENSO phenomenon have a strong modulating effect based on seasonal rainfall in the Philippines, with extreme ENSO warm events (El Niño) often associated with drought and stresses on water resources and agriculture/aquaculture. In contrast, cold events (La Niña) often result in excessive rainfall. The La Nina Advisories from 2021 to 2023 (18 advisories) showed the persistence of this part of ENSO, particularly in regions with recurrent and new records of HABs/toxic algal blooms. More studies and monitoring of another type of toxic algal bloom, Ciguatera Fish Poisoning (CFP), are recommended in tropical countries such as the Philippines and Malaysia, which have extensive reef areas that harvest and culture marine fish for local and export purposes, as accelerating reports of this type of poisoning have apparently increased and causative organisms have been identified in several areas. There is an urgent need to enhance HAB/toxic algal bloom research and monitoring, particularly those related to climate change, which has apparently impacted these blooms/occurrences directly or indirectly. Local researchers and managers should be made aware of the knowledge and tools already available for their utilization and enhancement to meet local conditions and challenges for potential recurrence and expansion of HABs/toxic algal blooms. Regional and international HAB research and collaboration should be further advanced for the protection of public health and marine resources.

Characteristics of cold events in the eastern China: Perspective from five metropolitan regions

AbstractThis study investigates the characteristics of cold events affecting eastern China during November–March of 1979–2018 using station observations and the ERA5 reanalysis, focusing five major cities (Beijing, Zhengzhou, Wuhan, Shanghai and Guangzhou) for their high vulnerability and distinct local thermal conditions than the broader climate regimes. For each city, cold day (CD) (one or more continuous days where the temperature falls below the local 5th percentiles) and cold surge (CS) (a period of 1–3 days with a total temperature decrease exceeding 8°C) were both examined in aspects of occurrence frequency, circulation characteristics and health impacts. Results show that the northern cities are relatively more/less exposed to CD/CS than the southern cities. At all five cities, the two types of events rarely coincide and exhibit distinct multiple‐year variations, as CD and CS are, respectively, dominated by continental‐ and regional‐scale circulations. However, both types of events are associated with the interplay of the East Asia trough at 300 hPa and the Siberian high, Aleutian low and subtropical high at 850 hPa. Results also show that during CDs in these cities, the effective temperatures (ET), which take into account of the near‐surface wind speed and humidity, are often about 5°C lower than the actual temperatures. The ET decreases are larger than the actual temperature drops in most CSs, yet in specific scenarios (primarily in Beijing and Zhengzhou when the temperature drop is relatively small), the ET drop can be less pronounced, as the possible decrease of wind speed and/or humidity can partially mitigate the ET decrease caused by dropping temperatures. These underline the complexity of health impacts of cold events, which vary regionally due to differences in covariations of temperature, wind speed and relative humidity. There aspects are worthy of further investigation.

Characteristics and Mechanisms of Persistent Wet–Cold Events with Different Cold-air Paths in South China

Characteristics and Mechanisms of Persistent Wet–Cold Events with Different Cold-air Paths in South China

Comparative physiology and transcriptome response patterns in cold-tolerant and cold-sensitive varieties of Solanum melongena

BackgroundClimate change has led to severe cold events, adversely impacting global crop production. Eggplant (Solanum melongena L.), a significant economic crop, is highly susceptible to cold damage, affecting both yield and quality. Unraveling the molecular mechanisms governing cold resistance, including the identification of key genes and comprehensive transcriptional regulatory pathways, is crucial for developing new varieties with enhanced tolerance.ResultsIn this study, we conducted a comparative analysis of leaf physiological indices and transcriptome sequencing results. The orthogonal partial least squares discriminant analysis (OPLS-DA) highlighted peroxidase (POD) activity and soluble protein as crucial physiological indicators for both varieties. RNA-seq data analysis revealed that a total of 7024 and 6209 differentially expressed genes (DEGs) were identified from variety “A” and variety “B”, respectively. Gene Ontology (GO) and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) pathway enrichment of DEGs demonstrated that the significant roles of starch and sucrose metabolism, glutathione metabolism, terpenoid synthesis, and energy metabolism (sucrose and starch metabolism) were the key pathways in eggplant. Weighted gene co-expression network analysis (WGCNA) shown that the enrichment of numerous cold-responsive genes, pathways, and soluble proteins in the MEgrep60 modules. Core hub genes identified in the co-expression network included POD, membrane transporter-related gene MDR1, abscisic acid-related genes, growth factor enrichment gene DELLA, core components of the biological clock PRR7, and five transcription factors. Among these, the core transcription factor MYB demonstrated co-expression with signal transduction, plant hormone, biosynthesis, and metabolism-related genes, suggesting a pivotal role in the cold response network.ConclusionThis study integrates physiological indicators and transcriptomics to unveil the molecular mechanisms responsible for the differences in cold tolerance between the eggplant cold-tolerant variety “A” and the cold-sensitive variety “B”. These mechanisms include modulation of reactive oxygen species (ROS), elevation in osmotic carbohydrate and free proline content, and the expression of terpenoid synthesis genes. This comprehensive understanding contributes valuable insights into the molecular underpinnings of cold stress tolerance, ultimately aiding in the improvement of crop cold tolerance.

The Sediments in the Beibu Gulf Reveal Dramatic Paleoenvironmental Changes and Climate Events over the Past ~20,000 Years

The geochemical characteristics of a 2.1 m BBW25 core, collected from the Beibu Gulf, have been investigated in terms of the major and trace elements, organic matter, and CaCO3 and AMS 14C dating by XRF, ICP-OES, ICP-MS, and more. We have found through previous research that there are issues with unclear delineation of sedimentary evolution environments and inexact responses between chemical weathering intensity and major paleoclimate events in the Beibu Gulf. The AMS 14C dating results indicate that the sedimentary age at the bottom was 19.24 ky b.p. CaCO3, δ13C, C/N, and Sr/Ba indexes show a sedimentary environment change from terrestrial to marine environments and a “jump” of ~4000 years in continent–ocean changes. The evolution of the sedimentary environment of Beibu Gulf was divided into three environments and five sub-environments. The changes in chemical weathering intensity indicators recorded by the CIX and the Fe/Al ratio respond well to the East Asian monsoon cycle, the meltwater events, and the alternation of cold and warm events. This study explains the chemical weathering intensity and sedimentary environment in the BBW25 core by geochemical characteristics and further reveals the paleoenvironmental characteristics and possible driving mechanisms over the past ~20,000 years.

Escaping Environmental Hazards? Human Mobility in Response to Air Pollution and Extreme Cold Events

Understanding the patterns of human mobility and how they relate to different environmental risks is key to developing effective adaptation strategies. To this end, this study applied large-scale mobile phone data to examine the differential mobility responses to and interaction between air pollution and extreme cold events and attempted to identify nonlinearities in the relationship between short-term movements and the two environmental hazards. The results revealed that extreme cold events had a strong influence on the mobility decisions of residents in the city of Chengdu, China. Residents were more likely to react to climate-related hazards in their daily mobility than air pollution, which is often characterized as a slow-onset, small-impact, and frequent concern. The findings from the estimation of an interaction term indicated an antagonistic effect; that is, the combined effect of air pollution and extreme cold events on short-term movements was significantly lower than expected from the sum of their individual effects. Using a piecewise regression approach, this study uncovered nonlinearities in mobility as a response to air pollution and cold events as the number of trips from hazardous places to less hazardous places increased more than proportional to the differentials in air quality and magnitude of cold events.

Links of atmospheric circulation to cold days in simulations of EURO-CORDEX climate models for central Europe

Despite ongoing climate change and warming, extreme cold events still negatively affect human society. Since cold air incursions are related to specific circulation patterns, the main aims of this study are (1) to validate how well current EURO-CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs) reproduce these synoptic links and (2) to assess possible future changes in atmospheric circulation conducive to cold events. Using anomalies of daily minimum temperature, we define cold days (CDs) in central Europe and analyse their characteristics over the historical (1979−2020) and future (2070−2099) periods. We classify wintertime atmospheric circulation by applying a novel technique based on Sammon mapping to the state-of-the-art ERA5 reanalysis output. We discover that circulation types (CT) conducive to CDs are characterised by easterly advection and/or clear-sky anticyclonic conditions. While the RCM ensemble generally reproduces these synoptic links relatively well, we observe biases in the occurrence of CDs in individual simulations. These biases can be attributed to inadequately reproduced frequencies of CTs conducive to CDs (primarily propagating from driving data), as well as to deviations in the conduciveness within these CTs (primarily originating in the RCMs). Interestingly, two competing trends are identified for the end of the twenty-first century: (1) most RCMs project an increased frequency of CTs conducive to CDs, suggesting more frequent CDs, while (2) the same CTs are projected to warm faster compared to their counterparts, suggesting weaker CDs. The interplay between these opposing trends contributes to the overall uncertainty surrounding the recurrence and severity of future winter extremes in central Europe.

Comparison and evaluation of the performance of reanalysis datasets for compound extreme temperature and precipitation events in the Qilian Mountains

Due to potential powerful destruction, the compound extreme temperature and precipitation events have continuously captured the interest of scientists. However, the lack of in-situ datasets limits the knowledge of compound extreme events in the alpine mountains. We selected the Qilian Mountains and analyzed the change trends of four types of compound extreme weather events, and further evaluated the performances of five reanalysis datasets for compound extreme weather events based on the observed daily datasets from 33 meteorological stations from 1980 to 2020. The results showed that (1) The frequency of four compound extreme weather events from highest to lowest is cold-dry events, high temperature-dry events, cold-heavy precipitation events, and high temperature-heavy precipitation events. High temperature-heavy precipitation events and high temperature-dry events showed increasing trends, while cold-dry events and cold-heavy precipitation events showed decreasing trends. (2) All five reanalysis datasets underestimated temperature and overestimated precipitation. In terms of extreme temperature and extreme precipitation events, ERA5-Land performed best, followed by ERA5, Har v2 and Merra2, and JRA55 performed worst. (3) For the four types of compound weather events, the reanalysis datasets performed better for high-temperature or dry events than cold or heavy precipitation events in the Qilian Mountains. The reanalysis datasets performed best for compound high temperature-dry events and worst for compound extreme temperature-heavy precipitation events. According to the results, we recommend ERA5-Land and ERA5 for the research on the compound extreme events. The research results provide theoretical support for the study of compound extreme temperature-precipitation events in alpine regions with sparse in-situ datasets.

Different responses of surface air temperature over Eurasia in early and late winter to the autumn Kara–Laptev Sea ice

The Arctic climate is changing rapidly, along with intensified melting of sea ice, which has significant impacts on surface air temperature (SAT) in Eurasia. This study reveals that the subseasonal response of SAT to the autumn Kara–Laptev Sea ice (KLSIC) differs significantly between early and late winter. The response of SAT to KLSIC forms a warm Arctic–cold Eurasia pattern in early winter. Conversely, the negative anomaly response of SAT to KLSIC in late winter is only distributed in the band range of Eurasia, without significant positive SAT anomaly over the Arctic Ocean. After further examination of the separate physical mechanisms involved in early and late winter, it is found that a decrease in KLSIC in autumn can lead to a strengthened Ural high and Siberian high in the Arctic–Eurasia region, which is conducive to cold events in the mid-latitudes of Eurasia in early winter. For late winter, a westward shift in the response of atmospheric circulation to KLSIC leads to a negative anomaly feedback of North Sea surface temperature, which triggers the propagation of Rossby waves to the Sea of Japan through the wave activity flux. Meanwhile, the deep trough of East Asia is strengthened and extends to the southeast, guiding northern cold air to the western Pacific. Our results highlight that different subseasonal effects of sea ice should be considered in Eurasian climate prediction, rather than only consider the effects in winter mean.

The response of atmospheric blocking and East Asian cold extremes to future Arctic Sea ice loss

The effect of Arctic warming on cold extremes over middle latitude remains a controversial and unresolved issue, particularly considering potential enhanced Arctic amplification in future scenarios. Here we examine the possible responses of winter cold extremes to the projected sea ice loss under 2 °C global warming scenario in four models, based on the atmosphere-only experiments of the Polar Amplification Model Inter-comparison Project (PAMIP). We find agreement with the increased responses of extreme cold days over East Asia (EA), characterized by longer duration or stronger intensity of temperature drop during cold events. Accordingly, most models exhibit a weak response of the Ural blocking in the corresponding composite circulation fields, whereas the westward movement of an anomalous anticyclonic system from eastern Siberia before the maturing of the Ural blocking is notable in four models. We suggest that this westward shifting pattern may prolong the duration of Ural blocking or modulate the strength of the Northeast Asian cold vortex, resulting in longer or stronger cold anomalies in EA. Accordingly, increased blocking frequency with a more pronounced westward response of shipment signals is also found over eastern Siberia, where a reduced meridional potential vorticity gradient (PVy) exists. The background of weak PVy can enhance the atmospheric nonlinearity, resulting in the anticyclonic anomalies less prone to dispersion and presenting a westward characteristic. Our results highlight the impact of the nonlinear response of circulation to Arctic sea ice loss. In contrast to more concerned Ural blocking influence, it is suggested that the downstream impact of eastern Siberia blocking on cold extremes in EA may be more pronounced in an enhanced Arctic amplification climate.

Temperature forecasts for the continental United States: a deep learning approach using multidimensional features

Accurate weather forecasts are critical for saving lives, emergency services, and future developments. Climate models such as numerical weather prediction models have made significant advancements in weather forecasts, but these models are computationally expensive and can be subject to inaccurate representations of complex natural interconnections. Alternatively, data-driven machine learning methods have provided new dimensions in assisting weather forecasts. In this study, we used convolutional neural networks (CNN) to assess how geopotential height at different levels of the troposphere may affect the predictability of extreme surface temperature (t2m) via two cases. Specifically, we analyzed temperature forecasts over the continental United States at lead times from 1 day to 30 days by incorporating z100, z200, z500, z700, and z925 hPa levels as inputs to the CNN. In the first case, we applied the framework to predict summer temperatures of 2012, which contributed to one of the extreme heatwave events in the U.S. history. The results show that z500 leads to t2m forecasts with relatively less root mean squared errors (RMSE) than other geopotential heights at most of the lead time under consideration, while the inclusion of more atmospheric pressure levels improves t2m forecasts to a limited extent. At the same lead time, we also predicted the z500 patterns with different levels of geopotential height and temperature as the inputs. We found that the combination of z500, t2m, and t850 (temperature at 850 hPa) is associated with less RMSE for the z500 forecasts compared to other inputs. In contrast to the 2012 summer, our second case examined the wintertime temperature of 2014 when the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions experienced the coldest winter on record. We found that z200 contributes to better t2m predictions for up to 7-days lead times whereas z925 gives better results for z500 forecasts during this cold event. Collectively, the results suggest that for long-range temperature forecasts based on the CNN, including various levels of geopotential heights could be beneficial.

Rapid mangrove expansion triggered by low river discharge episode in Nanliu river estuary, Beibu Gulf of China

Mangrove forest is a critical primary producer, biological habitat, and carbon sink in the subtropical-tropical coast zone, and the natural variation of mangrove coverage deserves study for a better understanding of the dynamics of mangrove coastal evolution. In this study, multispectral Landsat images from 1985 to 2018 are used to reconstruct the change in the coverage of mangrove (dominant species is Aegiceras corniculatum) and salt marsh (dominant species is Cyperus malaccensis) in the Nanliu River estuary. Tidal flat elevation measuring and 210Pb dating is used to study the substrate elevation when mangroves first colonize salt marsh. Historical temperature records, river discharge records, and the time series N/P concentration in sediment are analyzed. It is found that the mangrove forests have expanded rapidly in salt marsh since the mid-1980s. The change in factors such as accommodation space, cold event frequency, and nutrient supply cannot explain the origin of mangrove expansion. A low river discharge episode lasting for 8 years since 1986 is considered to have triggered the mangrove expansion in this area, as previously established salt marsh plants died due to germination restriction caused by high salinity and mangroves colonized the salt marsh habitat during this period. This case proves again that estuarine wetlands are very sensitive to salinity variation.