Cohort Effects Research Articles

Secular trends in incidence and mortality of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma in China, 1990-2019, and predictions to 2030: Outlook for the future burden of disease.

The aim of this study was to analyze the trend of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma incidence and mortality in China from 1990 to 2019, along with assessing the effects of age, period, and cohort, as well as to predict future trends. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 we calculated the estimated annual percentage changes in the incidence and mortality of non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. Age-period-cohort analysis was used to assess the independent effects of these elements. Incidence and mortality until 2030 were predicted using a Bayesian age-period-cohort approach. During 1990-2019, there was a significant increase in the age-standardized incidence and mortality rate in non-Hodgkin's lymphoma. Strong effects of birth cohort and period on non-Hodgkin's lymphoma incidence and mortality were observed. In terms of prediction, future non-Hodgkin's lymphoma incidence and mortality in China will continue to increase, while the mortality rate will decrease; for women, both the rates are projected to rise, but they will remain lower than men. Currently, the non-Hodgkin's lymphoma burden is high in China, and it is expected to continue increasing in the future. Policymakers need to prioritize addressing the factors contributing to sex differences in disease burden, including variations in environmental exposures and lifestyles among men and women.

Global, regional, and national time trends in incidence for depressive disorders, from 1990 to 2019: an age-period-cohort analysis for the GBD 2019

BackgroundEven with advances in primary health care, depressive disorders remain a major global public health problem. We conducted an in-depth analysis of global, regional and national trends in depressive disorders incidence over the past 30 years.MethodsData on the incidence of depressive disorders were obtained by sex (female, male, and both), location (204 countries), age (5–84 years), year (1990–2019) from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019. Further, age-period-cohort modeling was used to estimate the net drift, local drift, age, period and cohort effects between 1990 and 2019.ResultsIn 2019, although the incidence of depressive disorders has increased by 59.3% to 290 million (95% UI: 256, 328), the age-standardized incidence rate has decreased by 2.35% to 3588.25 per 100,000 people (3152.71, 4060.42) compared to 1990. There was an emerging transition of incidences from the young and middle-aged population to the old population. From 1990 to 2019, the net drift of incidence rate ranged from −0.54% (−0.61%, −0.47%) in low-middle Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions to 0.52% (0.25%, 0.79%) in high SDI regions. Globally, the incidence rate of depressive disorders increases with age, period effects showing a decreasing risk and cohort effects beginning to decline after the 1960s.ConclusionsOur current findings reflect substantial health disparities and potential priority-setting of depressive disorders incidence in the three dimensions of age, period and cohort across SDI regions, countries. The scope of healthcare to improve the progression of depressive disorders events can be expanded to include males, females of all ages.

The increasing prevalence of cancer in the elderly: An investigation of epidemiological trends

AbstractCancer poses a significant health threat to the elderly, accounting for a substantial proportion of cancer patients aged 65 and above. As life expectancy continues to rise and the population ages, the incidence of cancer in the elderly is expected to increase further. Age is a major risk factor for the majority of common cancers, with the incidence and prevalence rising as individuals grow older. Factors such as chemoprevention and environmental carcinogen elimination may influence the process of carcinogenesis. Studies reveal that the incidence and mortality rates of various cancers in the elderly and extremely old individuals are on the rise worldwide, with most types peaking around the age of 75 to 90, followed by a sharp decline. Birth cohort and period effects also play a complex role in the connection between aging and cancer risk. Clinical trials often exclude older individuals, limiting our understanding of cancer treatments' effects on this particular age group. More research is needed to focus on the unique requirements of older adults with cancer.

Dynamic simulation of policy-driven green technology innovation networks: Digital empowerment and collaborative efficiency

To delve into the intricate dynamics of green innovation, it is imperative to establish a policy-driven green innovation network and optimize its multi-entity collaborative mechanism. Given the dynamic complexity of a technological innovation network composed of multiple entities, this paper examines the interactions among four subsystems based on system dynamics (SD) simulation: resource input, innovation performance, policy-driven, and digital empowerment subsystem. Furthermore, we analyze the combined effects of policy-driven initiatives and the role of digital platforms in facilitating innovation efficiency based on empirical evidence. The results indicate that: (1) Government can effectively promote green development by enforcing stronger environmental regulations, such as increasing carbon trading price, while enhancing the emission reduction efficiency of innovative products. (2) Increased per capita R&D investment, along with financial, tax, fiscal incentives for innovation investment, will increase the rate of innovation achievements. (3) Government should strengthen talent policy during anticipated increases in talent numbers and reduce the intensity of introductions during expected declines. (4) By implementing incentive policies to develop S&T platforms, government can broaden innovation network cooperation, promotes resource aggregation, and leverages multi-entity cohort effects.

Age, period, cohort effects in trends of depressive symptoms among middle-aged and older Chinese adults.

To investigate the effects of age, period, and cohort on the trends of depression; and to examine the influence of these three temporal effects on residential disparities in depression. Using data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) during 2011 to 2020, involving 77,703 respondents aged 45 years old and above. The measurement of depressive symptoms was the score of 10-question version of the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D 10). The hierarchical age-period-cohort cross-classified random effects models were conducted to examine trends in depressive symptoms related to age, period and cohort. CES-D scores increased with age and slightly decreased at older age. The cohort trends mostly increased except for a downward trend among those born in 1950s. As for the period effect, CES-D scores decreased gradually from 2011 to 2013 followed by a upward trend. Rural residents were associated with higher level of depression than those live in urban area. These residence gaps in depression enlarged before the age of 80, and then narrowed. The urban-rural disparities in CES-D scores gradually diminished across cohorts, while the corresponding period-based change in urban-rural gaps was not significant. When age, period, cohort factors are considered, the age effects on depression dominated, and the period and cohort variations were relatively small. The residence disparities in depression reduced with successive cohorts, more attention should be paid to the worsening depression condition of younger cohorts in urban areas.

The impact of heterogeneity on the analysis of platform trials with normally distributed outcomes

BackgroundA platform trial approach allows adding arms to on-going trials to speed up intervention discovery programs. A control arm remains open for recruitment in a platform trial while intervention arms may be added after the onset of the study and could be terminated early for efficacy and/or futility when early stopping is allowed. The topic of utilising non-concurrent control data in the analysis of platform trials has been explored and discussed extensively. A less familiar issue is the presence of heterogeneity, which may exist for example due to modification of enrolment criteria and recruitment strategy.MethodWe conduct a simulation study to explore the impact of heterogeneity on the analysis of a two-stage platform trial design. We consider heterogeneity in treatment effects and heteroscedasticity in outcome data across stages for a normally distributed endpoint. We examine the performance of some hypothesis testing procedures and modelling strategies. The use of non-concurrent control data is also considered accordingly. Alongside standard regression analysis, we examine the performance of a novel method that was known as the pairwise trials analysis. It is similar to a network meta-analysis approach but adjusts for treatment comparisons instead of individual studies using fixed effects.ResultsSeveral testing strategies with concurrent control data seem to control the type I error rate at the required level when there is heteroscedasticity in outcome data across stages and/or a random cohort effect. The main parameter of treatment effects in some analysis models correspond to overall treatment effects weighted by stage wise sample sizes; while others correspond to the effect observed within a single stage. The characteristics of the estimates are not affected significantly by the presence of a random cohort effect and/ or heteroscedasticity.ConclusionIn view of heterogeneity in treatment effect across stages, the specification of null hypotheses in platform trials may need to be more subtle. We suggest employing testing procedure of adaptive design as opposed to testing the statistics from regression models; comparing the estimates from the pairwise trials analysis method and the regression model with interaction terms may indicate if heterogeneity is negligible.

Demographic Trends in Liver Transplant Survivors After 3 Decades of Program Implementation: The Impact of Cohort and Period Effects on Life Expectancy.

Demographic analyses may reveal current patterns of change in the outcomes of rapidly developing medical procedures because they incorporate the period perspective. We analyzed the changes in size, age structure, and hospitalizations in the population of liver transplantation (LT) survivors in our center during the last 30 y (n = 1114 patients) and generated projections, including life expectancy (LE), considering cohort and period effects. Life tables were used to project the complete LE (overall 1990-2020 experience), the cohort LE (according to the decade of surgery: 1990-2000, 2000-2010, and 2010-2020), and the period LE (current 2015-2020 experience). The population of LT recipients in follow-up continued to experience progressive growth and aging since 1990 (492 patients [41.9% >65 y] in 2020), and the magnitude of these phenomena may double in the next 30 y. However, the number of admissions and days of admission has been decreasing. The complete LE at LT was 12.4 y, whereas the period LE was 15.8 y. The cohort LE (limited to 10 y) was 5.3, 6.3, and 7.3 y for the 1990-2000, 2000-2010, and 2010-2020 cohorts, respectively. The target population of our medical care after LT is growing and aging. The prevalence of both of these phenomena is expected to increase in the coming years and is associated with a current improvement in LE. However, the hospitalization burden associated with LT survivors is declining. The period effect should be considered for generating up-to-date information on these current trends, which are crucial when designing health policies for LT survivors.

The Transformation of Traditional Peasants: An Age–Period–Cohort Analysis of the Modernity of Peasants in China

Using the data of Chinese General Social Survey from 2010 to 2018, this study measured the modernity of Chinese peasants from four dimensions: equality and autonomy, positive attitude, general confidence, and open-mindedness. Hierarchical age–period–cohort models were introduced to assess the effect of age, period, and cohort on modernity and to further explore the heterogeneities in the effect of education and off-farm work experience on modernity among various birth cohorts. Age effects consistently show significance, with the level of individual modernity decreasing as age increases. However, the rate of decline gradually slows down. Period effects are generally significant and contribute to the advancement of modernity. Cohort effects are significant in most cohorts. The modernity of peasants born between 1941 and 1960 show a consistent decline, reaching its lowest point in the cohort 1961–1970 and then increasing steadily among those born after 1970. Possible explanations were proposed from the perspective of changes in the land property system and household registration system in China. We also found that the positive effect of education is stronger for younger cohorts, whereas the positive effect of off-farm experience is stronger for older cohorts. This study enriches Inkeles’s research on individual modernization and reveals the transformation process of traditional peasants in developing countries.

Trends and Age-Period-Cohort Effect on Acute Hepatitis B Incidence - China, 2005-2021.

This study analyzed long-term trends in the incidence of acute hepatitis B (AHB) in China, focusing on age, period, and cohort effects on incidence. Data on AHB from 2005 to 2021 were extracted from the National Notifiable Disease Reporting System (NNDRS) of China for analysis. Incidences of AHB were calculated by gender and age group using population denominators from the 2000, 2010, and 2020 censuses. Joinpoint regression was employed to evaluate trends, and an age-period-cohort model was used to assess the age, period, and cohort effects. The annual average incidence of reported AHB in children aged 14 years and below in low, intermediate, and high endemic areas decreased from 1.65, 2.33, and 2.56 per 100,000 in 2005-2010 to 0.56, 0.58, and 0.48 per 100,000 in the 2016-2021 period. The 15-39-year age group in high endemic areas exhibited the most significant decline in incidence, dropping from 23.14 per 100,000 in 2005 to 4.59 per 100,000 in 2021 among males and from 10.62 per 100,000 to 3.21 per 100,000 among females. Age-period-cohort analysis indicated decreasing age, period, and cohort effects for reported AHB incidence in each endemic area, except for a slight upward trend in the 15-19-year age group and in the cohort born between 1951 and 1955. This study demonstrated a rapid decline in AHB incidence across various endemic areas since 2005. Children aged 14 years and below exhibited very low AHB incidences, while the incidence among individuals over 15 years was higher. To further reduce AHB incidence, hepatitis B vaccine (HepB) coverage should be enhanced among adolescents and adults.

The Trend of Chronic Diseases Among Older Koreans, 2004-2020: Age-Period-Cohort Analysis.

This study aimed to examine age, period, and cohort effects contributing to the prevalence of diabetes and hypertension among older Koreans. Additionally, it sought to investigate how sociodemographic characteristics interact with period and cohort effects to influence the disease prevalence. Using the 2004-2020 data from the National Survey of Older Koreans, a nationally representative sample of older adults aged 65 or older, hierarchical age-period-cohort cross-classified random effects models (HAPC-CCREMs) were employed to estimate separate age, period, and cohort components of the recent trends in diabetes and hypertension. Sociodemographic characteristics were tested for their interactions with period and cohort effects. Significant period effects were observed, indicating a steady increase in the likelihood of being diagnosed with diabetes and hypertension over time. Age effects revealed a quadratic trend, with disease risks generally increasing with age, but the rate of increase diminishing at older ages. Cohort effects exhibited an inverted U-shaped pattern, with higher risks observed in the 1930s and early 1940s cohorts compared to earlier and later cohorts. Gender and educational attainment emerged as significant moderators. Women than men born in the early 1930s exhibited higher risks of diabetes and hypertension, whereas individuals with lower educational attainment showed a steadily increasing risk of hypertension over time. The results underscore the complex interplay of age, period, and cohort effects in shaping disease prevalence among older Koreans. Our findings highlight the importance of considering historical context and sociodemographic factors in understanding disease trends and designing targeted interventions to mitigate health disparities.

Generational differences in economic perceptions

Historical institutionalists have long argued that major events can shape long-term economic perceptions, but the identification of birth-cohort differences has been stymied by methodological difficulties, notably the APC problem. Taking advantage of unique Japanese data and tailored Bayesian modeling, we identify cohort effects in economic perceptions and show that they follow objective macroeconomic trends countercyclically. Cohorts whose formative ages (16–20) overlap with high GDP growth have more pessimistic views about the current and future economy, even in later years. We argue that a strong economy during one's youth raises baseline expectations and makes later, weaker growth appear disappointing. We further find partisan differences in cohort effects, particularly on prospective economic expectations, with greater pessimism among independents and supporters of opposition parties.

Expanding our understanding of long-term trends in alcohol abstention and consumption in England (2001-19) using two age-period-cohort approaches.

Alcohol consumption has decreased in England in recent decades, while alcohol-specific death rates have remained relatively stable. Age-period-cohort (APC) models offer the potential for understanding these paradoxical trends. This study aimed to use an APC model approach to measure long-term trends in alcohol abstention and consumption in England from 2001 to 2019. The study used grouped and proxy-variable APC models of repeat cross-sectional survey data, set in England (2001-19). Participants were residents in England aged 13 years or over who took part in the Health Survey for England. Outcome variables were alcohol abstention and consumption in units. We created nine age groups (13-15, 16-17, 18-24, 25-34, until 65-74 and 75+, reference 45-54 years), four periods (2001-04, 2005-09, 2010-14 to 2015-19, reference 2005-09) and 18 5-year birth cohorts (1915-19 to 2000-04, reference 1960-64). We proxied age effects (systolic and diastolic blood pressure), period effects (alcohol affordability, internet usage and household alcohol expenditure) and birth cohort effects (prevalence of smoking and prevalence of overweight). The odds of abstaining were considerably larger at young ages, 13-15 years [odds ratio (OR) = 5.38; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 4.50-6.43], were lowest during the first period, 2001-04 (OR = 0.83; 95% CI = 0.79-0.86) and had a U-shaped pattern by birth cohort. For units of alcohol, the incidence rate ratio (IRR) increased until age 18-24 years (IRR = 1.41, 95% CI = 1.34-1.48) and decreased afterwards, were highest during the first period, 2001-04 (IRR = 1.07; 95% CI = 1.05-1.08) and showed an inverted J-shape by birth cohort. Our proxy variable approach revealed that using blood pressure measures, alcohol affordability and prevalence of overweight as proxies resulted in APC effects that differed from our base-case model. However, internet usage, household expenditure on alcohol and smoking prevalence resulted in APC effects similar to our base-case model. The discrepancy between decreasing alcohol consumption and increasing alcohol-related deaths observed in England from 2001 to 2019 may, in part, be explained by the halt in abstention trends since 2010 and a slight consumption decline since 2001.

Ethnic identity centrality across the adult lifespan: Aging, cohort, and period effects among majority and minority group members.

Ethnic identity is a major area of study across many disciplines including psychology, sociology, anthropology, and political science. Yet, little is known about changes in ethnic identity across the adult lifespan, and whether such changes are driven by normal aging processes (aging effects), unique societal influences linked with one's formative years (cohort effects), or social changes during a specific time frame (period effects). We address these key oversights by utilizing 13 annual waves of longitudinal panel data from a nationwide random sample of both ethnic majority (N = 49,660) and Indigenous ethnic minority (N = 8,325) group members in New Zealand to examine changes in ethnic identity centrality using cohort-sequential latent growth modeling. This approach helps to identify changes in mean levels of ethnic identity centrality over time and whether such changes are driven by aging, cohort, and/or period effects. Our data reveal that, among both ethnic majority and ethnic minority individuals, changes in ethnic identity centrality were informed by a combination of normative aging processes, societal circumstances that reflected the unique historical context in which people grew to maturity, and societal changes during the 13 annual assessments of our study. Collectively, these results demonstrate for the first time that ethnic identity centrality in adulthood is subject to lifelong changes. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Duration of surgical antibiotic prophylaxis and surgical site infection in orthopaedic surgery: A prospective cohort study.

The optimal duration for surgical antibiotic prophylaxis (SAP) for preventing surgical site infection (SSI) in orthopaedic surgeries remains poorly supported by high-level evidence. This study aimed to assess the association between SAP duration and the occurrence of SSI within one year postoperatively. This prospective cohort study was based on the database from Surgical Site Infection Surveillance and Improvement Project (SISIP) of a tertiary orthopaedic university hospital from October 2014 to December 2020. The main outcome was SSI, defined according to the CDC/NHSN criteria, determined by review of index hospitalization medical records, microbiology laboratory reports, and readmission records for SSI treatment within one-year after discharge. Adjusted Generalized additive models (GAMs) were performed to assess the relationships between SAP duration and SSI, determined the cut-off point of SAP duration, and estimate the relative contribution of each included variable, across the overall cohort and the three subgroups (open fracture, closed fracture, and non-traumatic group). Multivariable logistic regression models were used to estimate the association between prolonging SAP duration based on the cut-off point and SSI. There were 37,046 patients (55.1% male) included, with the overall SSI incidence of 2.35% (871/37,046). In adjusted GAMs, no statistically significant relationships were observed in overall cohort and open or closed group (P>0.05), but a nonlinear relationship was exhibited non-traumatic group (P=0.03); the cut-off point were 2.4 days for overall cohort and 3.6 days (open), 2.6 days (closed), 1.1 days (non-trauma) for three subgroups. In adjusted logistic regression, prolonging SAP duration did not demonstrate a statistically significant protective effect in overall cohort (aOR=0.868; 95% CI, 0.746-1.011) and three groups (open: aOR=0.867; 95% CI, 0.668-1.124; closed: aOR=0.925; 95% CI, 0.754-1.135; non-trauma: aOR=1.184; 95% CI, 0.832-1.683). The relative contribution ranks of SAP duration were 21st overall among 34 factors, 14th for open fractures, 28th for closed fractures, and 3rd for non-traumatic group among 33 factors. Prolonged postoperative SAP duration has no protective effect against SSI in orthopaedic surgery. Our findings support current guidelines against the practice of continuing SAP postoperatively.

Evaluation of urban–rural difference in breast cancer mortality among Chinese women during 1987–2021: A hierarchical age-period-cohort analysis

BackgroundBreast cancer mortality varies in urban and rural areas in China. Studies have reported urban–rural difference across time period, however, the evaluation on urban–rural differences in age and birth cohort effects is limited. Our aim was to quantitatively assess urban–rural disparities in age, period and cohort effects in breast cancer mortality in China. MethodsWe collected age-specific breast cancer mortality rates for urban and rural females aged 20–84 years from 1987 to 2021. Hierarchical age-period-cohort (HAPC) models were used to evaluate the effect of area (urban, rural) on breast cancer mortality and investigate urban–rural differences in age, time period and birth cohort effects. ResultsWe found a significant area (urban, rural) effect on breast cancer mortality in that rural females had a lower mortality risk than urban females [−0.25 (95 % confidence interval (CI): −0.32, −0.17)]. Age trajectories of mortality based on the HAPC model showed nonlinear trends with adjustment for area variable. The urban–rural difference in age effect appeared to be divergent with age, and urban women had higher mortality risk in the senior age group. The urban–rural difference in birth cohort effect indicated a reversal around the birth cohort group of 1962–1966, after which rural females had a higher mortality risk than urban females. ConclusionThe area (urban, rural) could affect breast cancer mortality among women, and the effect of urban–rural difference varies with age and birth cohort. To promote the health of urban and rural females, the gap between urban and rural areas should be shorten.

Usher syndrome in the United Arab Emirates

ABSTRACT Purpose Usher syndrome, a common form of syndromic inherited retinal dystrophy in the Arabian Gulf, has not been molecularly defined in the United Arab Emirates. The current study addresses this gap in knowledge. Methods A retrospective case series of Emirati patients referred to the Ocular Genetics Clinic of Cleveland Clinic Abu Dhabi who (1) were clinically diagnosed with Usher syndrome and underwent genetic testing (whole exome sequencing, 2019 to 2023, inclusive) and (2) were identified to have biallelic pathogenic variants in Usher syndrome genes during the same time period. Results Ten probands (thirteen patients) were identified—seven probands (nine patients) with clinically diagnosed Usher syndrome and three additional probands (four patients) with biallelic homozygous USH2A variants. Among the seven probands initially diagnosed with Usher syndrome, six had different homozygous variants (three in MYO7A, one in ADGRV1, and one in CLRN1), one had dual diagnoses rather than Usher syndrome (i.e. separate cause for retinal dystrophy and deafness), and one had no identifiable genetic cause. Regarding the three additional probands identified with homozygous USH2A variants, all three had retinitis pigmentosa only rather than Usher syndrome and all three had different variants. Discussion Clinically diagnosed Usher syndrome was genetically heterogenous without evidence for founder effect in this Emirati cohort. MYO7A was the most common associated gene. Dual diagnosis rather than single cause can mimic Usher syndrome. Homozygous USH2A variants were not identified as a cause for Usher syndrome in this cohort but were a recurrent cause for retinitis pigmentosa without hearing impairment and without founder effect.

Trends of falls mortality among older adults in urban and rural China, 1987–2021

BackgroundFalls in older age pose a major public health concern, with unclear urban–rural patterns of falls mortality in China. This study examines the trends of late-life falls mortality in urban...

Longevity as a Responsibility: Constructing Healthy Aging by Enacting within Contexts over the Entire Lifespan.

Studying aging now requires going beyond the bio-psycho-social model and incorporating a broader multidisciplinary view capable of capturing the ultimate complexity of being human that is expressed as individuals age. Current demographic trends and the lengthening of life expectancies allow the observation of long-lived individuals in full health. These super-agers are no longer an exception. Indeed, individuals can have a good quality of life even over age 70 and living with chronic or neurodegenerative diseases. This change is driven in part by the cohort effect observed in people who are about to age today (e.g., better schooling, more advanced health conditions, and technologization) but more so by the gradual overcoming of ageist views. An aged person is no longer seen as a quitter but rather as one empowered to direct their own trajectory of potentially healthy longevity. According to this vision, this article proposes a situated lifespan perspective for the study of aging that integrates pedagogical models of developmental ecology with psychological theories of optimal experience to understand the individual motivational perspective on aging. At the same time, it does not disregard analyzing the daily and cultural contexts in which everyone situates and that guide aging trajectories. Nor does it forget that aging people are body-mind (embodied) organisms that, with contexts and through motivations, seize opportunities for action (affordances) to evolve in an optimal way during their lifespan. This theoretical reflection sheds new light on the aging process and on future trends in healthy longevity research.

Age-period-cohort analysis of epidemiological trends in pelvic fracture in China from 1992 to 2021 and forecasts for 2046.

This study explored the epidemiological trends in pelvic fracture (PF) in China from 1992 to 2021, analyze their relationships with age-period-cohort (APC) factors, and predict the trends of PF from 2022 to 2046. Incidence and years lived with disabilities (YLDs) of PF among sexes in China from 1992 to 2021 were obtained through the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. Trends in the incidence and YLDs were described, and a joinpoint regression model was used. The APC model was used to explore the effects of age, period, and cohort on the incidence and YLDs. Nordpred forecasted the incidence and YLDs in China from 2022 to 2046. In 2021, there were an estimated 0.63 million incidence cases and 0.33 million of YLDs, respectively. The number and age-standardized rate (ASR) of incidence and YLDs were both gradually increased. The average annual percent change (AAPC) in incidence and YLDs for men were 0.26% and -0.17%, respectively. For women, the AAPC values for incidence and YLDs were -0.03% and -0.57% (p < 0. 001), respectively. The relative risk (RR) of PF increases with age, with the lowest risk in those aged 10-14 years for incidence and aged 1-4 for YLDs and the highest risk in those aged >95 years for incidence and aged 90-94 years for YLDs. The period effect showed a totally increase in the risk across the general, male, and female populations. Cohort effects indicated a totally significant decline for both incidence and YLDs. The predicted incidence and YLDs of PF in China from 2022 to 2046 showed an initial rise, followed by a decline, with 2029 and 2034 being the turning point for incidence and YLDs, respectively. The characteristics of pelvic fracture incidence and YLDs in China are complex. Thus, primary prevention measures must be strengthened. Raising awareness about osteoporosis prevention, enhancing public health education, and promoting good dietary and hygiene habits are appropriate preventive measures for PF in China.

Age-specific incidence trends of 32 cancers in China, 1983 to 2032: Evidence from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents.

The long-term incidence trends of 32 cancers in China remained unclear. Cancer statistics for young population were often presented in aggregate, masking important heterogeneity. We aimed to assess the incidence trends of 32 cancers in China from 1983 to 2032, stratified by sex and age groups. Data on cancer incidence from 1983 to 2017 were extracted from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Volumes VI-XII. The age-period-cohort model was utilized to assess age and birth cohort effects on the temporal trends of 32 cancers in China, while the Bayesian age-period-cohort model was utilized to project future trends from 2018 to 2032. An increase in cohort effects is observed in some cancers such as thyroid and kidney cancers. Eight of the 12 obesity-related cancers may rise in the 0-14 age group, and nine in the 15-39 age group from 2013 to 2032. Liver and stomach cancers show an increasing trend among the younger population, contrasting with the observed declining trend in the middle-aged population. There has been a significant rise in the proportions of cervical cancer among females aged 40-64 (4.3%-19.1%), and prostate cancer among males aged 65+ (1.1%-11.8%) from 1983 to 2032. Cancer spectrum in China is shifting toward that in developed countries. Incidence rates of most cancers across different age groups may increase in recent cohorts. It is essential to insist effective preventive interventions, and promote healthier lifestyles, such as reducing obesity, especially among younger population.