Coastal Sea Level Changes Research Articles

Tide gauge records reveal improved processing of gravity recovery and climate experiment time-variable mass solutions over the coastal ocean

Monthly ocean bottom pressure solutions from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), derived using surface spherical cap mass concentration (MC) blocks and spherical harmonics (SH) basis functions, are compared to tide gauge (TG) monthly averaged sea level data over 2003–2015 to evaluate improved gravimetric data processing methods near the coast. MC solutions can explain ≳ 42 per cent of the monthly variance in TG time-series over broad shelf regions and in semi-enclosed marginal seas. MC solutions also generally explain ~ 5–32 per cent more TG data variance than SH estimates. Applying a coastline resolution improvement algorithm in the GRACE data processing leads to ~ 31 per cent more variance in TG records explained by the MC solution on average compared to not using this algorithm. Synthetic observations sampled from an ocean general circulation model exhibit similar patterns of correspondence between modelled TG and MC time-series and differences between MC and SH time-series in terms of their relationship with TG time-series, suggesting that observational results here are generally consistent with expectations from ocean dynamics. This work demonstrates the improved quality of recent MC solutions compared to earlier SH estimates over the coastal ocean, and suggests that the MC solutions could be a useful tool for understanding contemporary coastal sea level variability and change.

Western Boundary Sea Level: A Theory, Rule of Thumb, and Application to Climate Models

AbstractTo better understand coastal sea level variability and changes, a theory that predicts sea levels along a curved western boundary using interior ocean sea level information is proposed. The western boundary sea level at a particular latitude is expressed by the sum of contributions from interior sea levels propagating onto the western boundary by long Rossby waves between that latitude and a higher latitude, and from the western boundary sea level at the higher latitude. This theory is examined by using a linear, reduced gravity model. A comparison between the theory and the model shows good agreement. A simple scaling law (or rule of thumb) derived from the theory provides a measure of the higher-latitude sea level and ocean interior sea level contributions. The theory is then tested using data from 34 climate models in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for dynamic sea level changes between the end of the twentieth and twenty-first centuries. The theory captures the nearly uniform sea level rise from the Labrador Sea to New York City (NYC), with a reduction in the increase of sea level farther south toward the equator, qualitatively consistent with the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble, even though the theory underestimates the equatorward reduction rate. Along the South American east coast, the theory successfully reproduced the spatial pattern of the sea level change. The theory suggests a strong link between a sea level rise hot spot along the northeastern coast of North America and the sea level increase in the Labrador Sea, consistent with the result that rates of NYC sea level rise are highly correlated to those in the Labrador Sea in CMIP5 models.

Annual Sea Level Changes on the North American Northeast Coast: Influence of Local Winds and Barotropic Motions

Abstract Understanding the relationship between coastal sea level and the variable ocean circulation is crucial for interpreting tide gauge records and projecting sea level rise. In this study, annual sea level records (adjusted for the inverted barometer effect) from tide gauges along the North American northeast coast over 1980–2010 are compared to a set of data-assimilating ocean reanalysis products as well as a global barotropic model solution forced with wind stress and barometric pressure. Correspondence between models and data depends strongly on model and location. At sites north of Cape Hatteras, the barotropic model shows as much (if not more) skill than ocean reanalyses, explaining about 50% of the variance in the adjusted annual tide gauge sea level records. Additional numerical experiments show that annual sea level changes along this coast from the barotropic model are driven by local wind stress over the continental shelf and slope. This result is interpreted in the light of a simple dynamic framework, wherein bottom friction balances surface wind stress in the alongshore direction and geostrophy holds in the across-shore direction. Results highlight the importance of barotropic dynamics on coastal sea level changes on interannual and decadal time scales; they also have implications for diagnosing the uncertainties in current ocean reanalyses, using tide gauge records to infer past changes in ocean circulation, and identifying the physical mechanisms responsible for projected future regional sea level rise.

Northern Hemisphere control of deglacial vegetation changes in the Rufiji uplands (Tanzania)

Abstract. In tropical eastern Africa, vegetation distribution is largely controlled by regional hydrology, which has varied over the past 20 000 years. Therefore, accurate reconstructions of past vegetation and hydrological changes are crucial for a better understanding of climate variability in the tropical southeastern African region. We present high-resolution pollen records from a marine sediment core recovered offshore of the Rufiji River delta. Our data document significant shifts in pollen assemblages during the last deglaciation, identifying, through changes in both upland and lowland vegetation, specific responses of plant communities to atmospheric (precipitation) and coastal (coastal dynamics and sea-level changes) alterations. Specifically, arid conditions reflected by a maximum pollen representation of dry and open vegetation occurred during the Northern Hemisphere cold Heinrich event 1 (H1), suggesting that the expansion of drier upland vegetation was synchronous with cold Northern Hemisphere conditions. This arid period is followed by an interval in which forest and humid woodlands expanded, indicating a hydrologic shift towards more humid conditions. Droughts during H1 and the shift to humid conditions around 14.8 kyr BP in the uplands are consistent with latitudinal shifts of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) driven by high-latitude Northern Hemisphere climatic fluctuations. Additionally, our results show that the lowland vegetation, consisting of well-developed salt marshes and mangroves in a successional pattern typical for vegetation occurring in intertidal habitats, has responded mainly to local coastal dynamics related to marine inundation frequencies and soil salinity in the Rufiji Delta as well as to the local moisture availability. Lowland vegetation shows a substantial expansion of mangrove trees after ~ 14.8 kyr BP, suggesting an increased moisture availability and river runoff in the coastal area. The results of this study highlight the decoupled climatic and environmental processes to which the vegetation in the uplands and the Rufiji Delta has responded during the last deglaciation.

Coastal sea level changes, observed and projected during the 20th and 21st century

Timeseries of observed and projected sea level changes for the 20th and 21st century are analyzed at various coastal locations around the world that are vulnerable to climate change. Observed time series are from tide gauges and altimetry, as well as from reconstructions over the last 50 years. CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean model output of regional sea-level and associated uncertainty estimates are merged with scenario-independent contributions from GIA and dynamic ice to provide time series of coastal sea-level projections to the end of the 21st century. We focus on better quantifying the regional departure of coastal sea level rise from its global average, identify the reasons for the regional departure, and quantify the reasons for the uncertainty in these regional projections. Many of these coastal sea level projections are lower than the global mean change in sea level due to glacial isostatic adjustment, and gravitational changes from loss of land ice and terrestrially stored ground water. In most coastal regions, local deviations from the global mean vary up to ±20 cm which, depending on the location, differ substantially in their underlying causes.

Wind-Driven Coastal Sea Level Variability in the Northeast Pacific

Abstract The rate of coastal sea level change in the northeast Pacific (NEP) has decreased in recent decades. The relative contributions to the decreased rate from remote equatorial wind stress, local longshore wind stress, and local windstress curl are examined. Regressions of sea level onto wind stress time series and comparisons between NEP and Fremantle sea levels suggest that the decreased rate in the NEP is primarily due to oceanic adjustment to strengthened trade winds along the equatorial and coastal waveguides. When taking care to account for correlations between the various wind stress time series, the roles of longshore wind stress and local windstress curl are found to be of minor importance in comparison to equatorial forcing. The predictability of decadal sea level change rates along the NEP coastline is therefore largely determined by tropical variability. In addition, the importance of accounting for regional, wind-driven sea level variations when attempting to calculate accelerations in the long-term rate of sea level rise is demonstrated.

Developing Hazard Lines in Response to Coastal Flooding and Sea Level Change

Flooding is a current and future risk to the coastal zone. Currently, coastal planners use historical data to estimate the frequency and magnitude of flooding and develop planning tools such as hazard lines. However, in the face of climate variability and change, such flood risk estimation methods and the resultant planning tools are inadequate. This article outlines the steps, assumptions, key complexities and uncertainties associated with developing and applying hazard lines that incorporate sea level change projections. A case study, involving Lake Macquarie City Council in New South Wales, Australia, highlights the advantages and limitations of the hazard line approach at the local council level. The key findings are that hazard lines using global or state-wide sea level change benchmarks typically result in overgeneralised and inconsistent risk assessments and that new methods of flood risk estimation, flood planning and flood mitigation are required. Alternatives recommended include a move away from definitive sea level projections based on state or countrywide approximations towards the development of regionally specific adaptation plans that utilise flexible approaches, such as the identification of critical thresholds and triggers, to manage potential flood risk and enable decision-making under uncertainty.

Coastal sea level changes in Europe from GPS, tide gauge, satellite altimetry and GRACE, 1993–2011

Sea level changes are threatening the human living environments, particularly along the European Coasts with highly dense population. In this paper, coastal sea level changes in western and southern Europe are investigated for the period 1993–2011 using Global Positioning System (GPS), Tide Gauge (TG), Satellite Altimetry (SA), Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and geophysical models. The mean secular trend is 2.26±0.52mm/y from satellite altimetry, 2.43±0.61mm/y from TG+GPS and 1.99±0.67mm/y from GRACE mass plus steric components, which have a remarkably good agreement. For the seasonal variations, annual amplitudes of satellite altimetry and TG+GPS results are almost similar, while GRACE Mass+Steric results are a little smaller. The annual phases agree remarkably well for three independent techniques. The annual cycle is mainly driven by the steric contributions, while the annual phases of non-steric (mass component) sea level changes are almost a half year later than the steric sea level changes.

Coastal Environmental Studies: Importance, Problem and Prospect

Coastal Environmental Studies: Importance, Problem and Prospect

沿岸域の堆積システムと海水準変動

沿岸域の堆積システムと海水準変動

Monitoring coastal sea level using reflected GNSS signals

A continuous monitoring of coastal sea level changes is important for human society since it is predicted that up to 332 million people in coastal and low-lying areas will be directly affected by flooding from sea level rise by the end of the 21st century. The traditional way to observe sea level is using tide gauges that give measurements relative to the Earth’s crust. However, in order to improve the understanding of the sea level change processes it is necessary to separate the measurements into land surface height changes and sea surface height changes. These measurements should then be relative to a global reference frame. This can be done with satellite techniques, and thus a GNSS-based tide gauge is proposed. The GNSS-based tide gauge makes use of both GNSS signals that are directly received and GNSS signals that are reflected from the sea surface. An experimental installation at the Onsala Space Observatory (OSO) shows that the reflected GNSS signals have only about 3 dB less signal-to-noise-ratio than the directly received GNSS signals. Furthermore, a comparison of local sea level observations from the GNSS-based tide gauge with two stilling well gauges, located approximately 18 and 33 km away from OSO, gives a pairwise root-mean-square agreement on the order of 4 cm. This indicates that the GNSS-based tide gauge gives valuable results for sea level monitoring.

Coastal and global sea level change

Both coastal and global mean sea level rise by about 3.0 ± 0.5 mm/year from January 1993 to December 2004. Over shorter intervals the coastal sea level rises faster and over longer intervals slowly than the global mean, which trend is almost constant for each interval and is equal to 2.9 ± 0.5 mm/year in 1993–2008. The different trends are due to the higher interannual variability of coastal sea level, caused by the sea level regional variability, that is further averaged out when computing the global mean. Coastal sea level rise is well represented by a selected set of 267 stations of the Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level and by the corresponding co-located altimeter points. Its departure from coastal sea level computed from satellite altimetry in a 150 km distance from coast, dominated by a large rise in the Eastern Pacific, is due to the regional interannual variability. Regionally the trends of the coastal and open-ocean sea level variability are in good agreement and the main world basins have a positive averaged trend. The interannual variability is highly correlated with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (SO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) climatic indices over both the altimeter period and the interval 1950–2001. Being the signal of large scale a small number of stations with good spatial coverage is needed. The reconstruction of the interannual variability using the spatial pattern from altimetry and the temporal patterns from tide gauges correlated to NAO and SOI restitutes about 50% of the observed interannual variability over 1993–2001.

Climatic events during the Late Pleistocene and Holocene in the Upper Parana River: Correlation with NE Argentina and South-Central Brazil

Most Quaternary studies in Brazil are restricted to the Atlantic Coast and are mainly based on coastal morphology and sea level changes, whereas research on inland areas is largely unexplored. The study area lies along the Parana River, state of Parana, Brazil, at 22° 43′S latitude and 53° 10′W longitude, where the river is as yet undammed. Paleoclimatological data were obtained from 10 vibro cores and 15 motor auger holes. Sedimentological and pollen analyses plus TL and 14C dating were used to establish the following evolutionary history of Late Pleistocene and Holocene climates: First drier episode ?40,000–8000 BP First wetter episode 8000–3500 BP Second drier episode 3500–1500 BP Second (present) wet episode 1500 BP–Present Full-size table Table options View in workspace Download as CSV Climatic intervals are in agreement with prior studies made in southern Brazil and in northeastern Argentina.

On the interpentadal variability of the North Atlantic Ocean: Model simulated changes in transport, meridional heat flux and coastal sea level between 1955–1959 and 1970–1974

Previous studies by Greatbatch et al. (1991) indicate significant changes in the North Atlantic thermohaline structure and circulation between the pentads 1955–1959 and 1970–1974, using data analyzed by Levitus (1989a,b,c) and a simple diagnostic model by Mellor et al. (1982). In this paper these changes are modeled using a three‐dimensional, free surface, coastal ocean model. Diagnostic and short‐term prognostic calculations are used to infer the dynamically adjusted fields corresponding to the observed hydrographic and wind stress climatology of each pentad. While the results agree with earlier studies indicating that the Gulf Stream was considerably weaker (by about 30 Sv) during the 1970s compared to the 1950s, they also indicate some changes in the poleward heat transport, although the statistical significance of these changes relative to sampling errors in the data is not clear. The change of wind pattern between the two pentads, associated with changes in sea surface temperature, resulted in changes in the Ekman contribution to the poleward heat flux transport. The modeled sea level along the North American coast shows a sea level rise of about 5–10 cm between 1955–1959 and 1970–1974; a comparison with observed sea level at 15 tide gage stations shows good agreement. Most of the coastal sea level change is attributed to changes in thermohaline ocean circulation and wind stress; thermal expansion seems to play a lesser role. The methodology tested here demonstrates an effective way to estimate climate changes in ocean circulation and sea level from observed hydrographic data and winds using ocean models to enhance and analyze the data.

Late Quaternary coastal instability and sea level changes: new evidences from Saurashtra Coast, Western India

Late Quaternary coastal instability and sea level changes: new evidences from Saurashtra Coast, Western India

Coastal Geomorphology and Sea Level Changes in the Southern Part of Sri Lanka

Coastal Geomorphology and Sea Level Changes in the Southern Part of Sri Lanka

Non-Tidal Variability in the Chesapeake Bay and Potomac River: Evidence for Non-Local Forcing

Abstract Non-tidal variability in the Chesapeake Bay and Potomac River, and its relation to atmospheric forcing, is examined from two-month sea level and bottom current measurements. The dominant sea level fluctuations in the Bay had a period of 20 days. and were the result of up-Bay propagation of coastal sea level fluctuations generated by the alongshore winds. Consequently, water was driven out of the Bay by the northward/up-Bay wind and driven into the Bay by the southward/down-Bay wind, through the coastal Ekman flux. There were also large sea level fluctuations at periods of 5 and 2.5 days. The 5-day fluctuations were driven by both the coastal sea level changes and the local lateral winds (Ekman effect). The 2.5-day fluctuations were seiche oscillations driven by the local longitudinal winds. In the Potomac River, the sea level fluctuations were induced non-locally by motions in the Bay; the associated volume fluxes appeared to have been confined to the upper layer. The near-bottom currents were ma...