Coastal Megacities Research Articles

Double exposure, infrastructure planning, and urban climate resilience in coastal megacities: A case study of Manila

Coastal megacities pose a particular challenge for climate change adaptation and resilience planning. These dense concentrations of population, economic activity, and consumption—the majority of which are in the Global South—are often extremely vulnerable to climate change impacts such as sea level rise and extreme weather. This paper unpacks these complexities through a case study of Metropolitan Manila, the capital of the Philippines, which represents an example of “double exposure” to climate change impacts and globalization. The city is experiencing tremendous population and economic growth, yet Manila is plagued by frequent natural disasters, congestion, inadequate infrastructure, poverty, and income inequality. The need for metro-wide planning and infrastructure transformations to address these problems is widely recognized, but governance challenges are a major barrier. Drawing on fieldwork, interviews, and other primary and secondary sources, I argue that climate change and globalization, in combination with Manila’s historical and physical context, critically shape metro-wide infrastructure planning. Focusing on electricity and green infrastructure, I find that the largely decentralized and privatized urban governance regime is perpetuating a fragmented and unequal city, which may undermine urban climate resilience. This study extends the double exposure framework to examine how global processes interact with contextual factors to critically shape urban infrastructure planning, and how the resulting system conforms to theorized characteristics of urban climate resilience. In doing so, I help to connect emerging literatures on double exposure, urban infrastructure planning, and urban climate resilience.

The impacts of carbon pricing on coastal megacities: A CGE analysis of Singapore

Pricing carbon is a widely used policy instrument for climate change mitigation. Quantitative analysis of carbon pricing are mainly conducted at the regional and national level, rarely at the city level due to data availability. As a representative of coastal megacities that are vulnerable to both climate change and climate policies, Singapore has announced to impose carbon tax on large direct emitters as a complementary mitigation option to technical measures. A city-level Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model is developed to simulate potential impacts of carbon pricing on the city, including paying border-carbon-adjustment (BCA) on exports or introducing a domestic carbon tax. Different sector coverages and carbon tax revenue recycling schemes are investigated for domestic carbon tax. The simulation results show that a domestic carbon tax is a more cost-effective option than paying BCA. Given an identical carbon price at S$10/t-CO2, GDP, total exports and household consumption would decline less and average abatement cost is much smaller in the carbon tax scenarios compared to the BCA scenario. In terms of absolute emissions reduction, a carbon tax that covers energy, manufacturing and land transport sectors would be preferred, making emissions around 2.7% lower than 2010 baseline level.

Seasonal variability in bacterial and fungal diversity and community composition of the near-surface atmosphere in coastal megacity

Bacteria and fungi are ubiquitous in the near-surface atmosphere where they may impact on the surrounding environment and human health, especially in coastal megacities. However, the diversity, composition, and seasonal variations of these airborne microbes remain limited. This study investigated the airborne microbes of the near-surface atmosphere in coastal megacity Qingdao over one year. It was found that the sample in summer displayed the highest bacterial and fungal diversity, while sample in winter exhibited the lowest bacterial and fungal diversity. Proteobacteria was the dominating bacteria, and Dothideomycetes was the most dominating fungi in the near-surface atmosphere, which took up 53–76 and 49–78% relative abundance, respectively. However, the bacterial diversity and community composition had significant seasonal variations. These data suggest that a complex set of environmental factors, including landscaping ratio, solar radiation temperature, and marine microorganisms, can affect the composition of airborne microbes in the near-surface atmosphere in coastal megacity. The analysis of the pathogenic microorganisms or opportunistic pathogenic microorganisms existed in the near-surface atmosphere revealed that the relative abundance of pathogenic microorganisms in autumn was the highest. The main pathogenic microorganisms or opportunistic pathogenic microorganisms were Acinetobacter baumannii (accounting for up to 9.93% relative abundance), Staphylococcus epidermidis (accounting for up to 11.26% relative abundance), Mycobacterium smegmatis (accounting for up to 3.68% relative abundance), Xanthomonas oryzae pv. oryzae (accounting for up to 5.36% relative abundance), which may be related to certain human or plant diseases in specific environments or at certain seasons. Therefore, the investigation of airborne microbial communities of near-surface atmosphere in coastal megacities is very important to both the understanding of airborne microbes and public health.

Assessing Impervious Surface Changes in Sustainable Coastal Land Use: A Case Study in Hong Kong

In Hong Kong, reclamation is the main method for developing new land use areas as most country parks and mountains are protected under a land policy that emphasizes conservation for their high ecological value. Therefore, the land use for urbanized area in Hong Kong is limited, which has become an issue of concern. Hong Kong’s population is increasing; however, the amount of available land use is insufficient to meet the demand. Developing a high density of buildings is one of the critical strategies of Hong Kong’s government. Highly dense development may result in an urban heat island as well as health problems. In this study, we present an assessment of urban impervious surface changes in coastal megacities like Hong Kong based on satellite images. Landsat satellite images are employed to analyze urban impervious surface changes from 1995 to 2015 in coastal urban areas of Hong Kong. The results show that the increase of impervious surface area is almost the same as the increase in land reclamation area. This suggests that Hong Kong’s land use policy, which underlines conservation for high ecological value and reclamation, may be able to maintain its sustainable development of coastal land use.

Evidence of massive river pollution in the tropical megacity Jakarta as indicated by faecal steroid occurrence and the seasonal flushing out into the coastal ecosystem

In the rapidly growing coastal megacities of developing and emerging countries, the implementation of new sewage treatment facilities is often not keeping pace with the enormous population growth, leading to a deterioration of the urban water resources. Only very few studies discuss faecal water contamination in these urban areas. Our study area Jakarta, the capital of Indonesia, is such a megacity. We investigated chemical markers of faecal contamination in water and sediments from the rivers and canals flowing through Jakarta. Moreover, also the spatial distribution of faecal markers in Jakarta Bay, the coastal ecosystem that receives all urban river discharges, was assessed. The concentrations of the faecal steroid coprostanol in river water ranged from 0.45 to 24.2 µg L−1, and in sediments from 0.3 to 400 µg g−1, reflecting the problem of inadequate sewage treatment capacities in the city. The steroid distribution in Jakarta Bay in May 2013 as compared to dry season data indicates a flushing out of particle-associated pollutants from the urban rivers far offshore during the precedent rainy season, where the city experienced a severe flood. This flushing out of particle-associated pollutants during times of heavy rainfall as observed in our study is a pollutant transport mechanism that is important for all tropical coastal systems. The associated impacts on sensitive coastal habitats might become more severe in the future, as a consequence of the expected climate change effects on monsoon variability.

Measuring the Unmeasurable: Comparative Assessment of Urban Vulnerability for Coastal Megacities — New York, London, Tokyo, Kolkata and Lagos

The following paper presents an approach to measure the vulnerability of urban megacities with a comparative approach across cities in the Global North and South. The assessment of city vulnerability is key in order to inform risk management and adaptation strategies that are needed to build resilience against extreme events, natural hazards or consequences of climate change. While the New Urban Agenda (UN Habitat 2016) underscores the necessity for inclusive, sustainable and resilient urban development, the findings of the vulnerability assessment in the five selected coastal megacities that were part of the TRUC project — Kolkata, Lagos, London, New York and Tokyo — show that next to resource deficiencies and poverty, issues of governance also need to be addressed if we really aim to increase the coping capacities of urban population to deal with extreme events and natural hazards. While this is a major challenge for the selected coastal megacities in the Global South, the analysis reveals that in terms of adaptive capacities also, megacities in the Global North, such as New York and London, face major challenges and rank nearly on a similar level as Kolkata. Even though such assessments provide only a first overview, it is evident that effective risk management approaches and positive transformative change that can include long-term as well as immediate risk management concerns will not only require improvements at the local level but also significant changes in sub-national and national context conditions. This is particularly true in terms of fighting corruption and increasing the reliability and trustworthiness of local and national institutions and their regulations.

Risk Management Regime and Its Scope for Transition in Tokyo

Coastal megacities are highly vulnerable to climate change due to asset concentration and hazard exposure, but have potential for innovative risk management taking advantage of technological, economic and political capacities and cultural assets. Tokyo is the center of one of the world’s largest urban agglomerations and one of the most hazard prone global cities. Having experienced repeated extreme events and resultant devastation, Tokyo has deployed a strategy of high technology based risk management. In the face of climate risks that amplify ongoing threats from catastrophic earthquakes, it is unclear whether the current strategy and its attendant culture and administrative structures are an enabler or a barrier for climate change adaptation. Based on 24 expert interviews, this paper examines Tokyo’s readiness to transition from its current risk management orientation aimed at disaster prevention towards more resilient of transformative states. We find the current risk management regime has been moving towards resilience planning promoted by the national policy architecture and the leadership of the Tokyo Metropolitan Government by incorporating self-help and community-cooperation into a long-standing strategy of resistance. This strategy continues to be dominated by technological, rather than social policy and so misses an opportunity for a broader contribution to sustainable development. The current approach may work for the near future but is perhaps less well suited to long-term risk management which includes highly uncertain future climate risks and potential social change. Transition is impeded by structural bottlenecks in the city authority while strategic partnerships between different stakeholders can facilitate transition of public values. Realizing this flexibility will position Tokyo’s risk management regime to better play a role in longer-term sustainable development.

Editorial

Journal of Extreme EventsVol. 03, No. 03, 1602003 (2016) Special Issue on Transformation and Resilience on Urban CoastsNo AccessEditorialMark PellingMark PellingDepartment of Geography, King’s Centre for Integrated Research on Risk and Resilience, King’s College London, The Strand, London WC2R 2LS, UKhttps://doi.org/10.1142/S2345737616020036Cited by:0 Next AboutSectionsPDF/EPUB ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack CitationsRecommend to Library ShareShare onFacebookTwitterLinked InRedditEmail References Ajibade, I, Agboola J and Pelling M [2016] Sustainability transitions: Exploring risk management and the future of adaptation in Lagos. Journal of Extreme Events. Link, Google Scholar Carter, JG, Cavan G, Connelly A, Guy S, Handley J and Kazmierczak A [2015] Climate change and the city: Building capacity for urban adaptation. Progress in Planning, 95: 1–66. Crossref, Google Scholar Clancey, M [2017] The Politics of Genetically Modified Organisms in the United States and Europe. London: Palgrave. Crossref, Google Scholar Hulme, M [2009] Why we Disagree About Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Crossref, Google Scholar McPhearson, T, Parnell S, Simon D, Gaffney O, Elmqvist T, Bai X, Roberts D and Revi A [2016] Scientists must have a say in the future of cities. Nature, 538: 165–166. Crossref, Google Scholar Narayanan, P, Rajeev P, Welle T, Ramachandran R and Ramachandran P [2016] Assessment of urban adaptation in Kolkata. Journal of Extreme Events. Google Scholar Nishi, M, Pelling M, Yamamuro M, Solecki W and Kraines, S [2016] Risk management regime and its scope for transition in Tokyo. Journal of Extreme Events. Link, Google Scholar Pelling, M [2011] Adaptation to Climate Change: From Resilience to Transformation. London: Routledge. Google Scholar Pelling M, Abeling T and Garschagen M [2016] Emergence and transition in London’s climate change adaptation pathways. Journal of Extreme Events. Link, Google Scholar Rajeev, P, Narayanan P, Pelling M, Ramachandran R and Ramachandran P [2016] Climate change adaptation pathways in Kolkata. Journal of Extreme Events. Google Scholar Satterthwaite, D [2014] Guiding the goals: Empowering local actors. Sais Review of International Affairs, 34 (2): 51–61. Crossref, Google Scholar Solecki, WD, Link HD and Garschagen M [2016] Risk management and adaptation transition mechanisms and pathways in New York city. Journal of Extreme Events. Link, Google Scholar Solecki, W, Pelling M and Garschagen M [2017] Transitions between risk management regimes in cities. Ecology and Society. Crossref, Google Scholar Solecki, W, Seto KC, Balk D, Bigio A, Boone CG, Creutzig F, Fragkias M, Lwasa S, Marcotullio P, Romero-Lankao P and Zwickel T [2015] A conceptual framework for an urban areas typology to integrate climate change mitigation and adaptation. Urban Climate, 14: 116–137. Crossref, Google Scholar Welle, T and Birkmann J [2016a] Measuring the unmeasurable: Comparative assessment of urban vulnerability for coastal megacities: New York, London, Kolkata, Tokyo, Lagos. Journal of Extreme Events. Link, Google Scholar FiguresReferencesRelatedDetails Recommended Vol. 03, No. 03 Metrics History Published: 2 February 2017 PDF download

Assessing the vulnerability of pumping stations to trash blockage in coastal mega-cities of developing nations

Pumping stations are important flood mitigation infrastructure used in coastal cities to remove accumulating floodwater from low-lying areas, where drainage is naturally poor due to very low slope gradient. In coastal mega-cities situated in developing nations, these pumping stations are often vulnerable to trash blockage as a result of frequent dumping of solid waste in water bodies. Given that blocked pumps are common causes of drainage infrastructure failure, the inability to identify the most vulnerable pumping stations can lead to inefficient allocation of limited resources for preventative maintenance of the drainage system. This study proposes an approach for measuring and ranking the vulnerability of pumping stations to trash blockage. In this approach, a trash blockage vulnerability index (TBVI) is developed based on the concepts of exposure, sensitivity and resilience. Using a graph-based network analysis technique, the proposed TBVI is applied to assess and rank the vulnerability of pumping stations in one of the most representative coastal mega-cities − Jakarta, Indonesia. The results show that TBVI can point to the pumping stations that are most vulnerable to trash blockage. Such information are vital to decision makers when planning and prioritising infrastructure to be serviced or upgraded as part of flood preparedness in coastal cities.

Avoiding Decline: Fostering Resilience and Sustainability in Midsize Cities

Eighty-five percent of United States citizens live in urban areas. However, research surrounding the resilience and sustainability of complex urban systems focuses largely on coastal megacities (>1 million people). Midsize cities differ from their larger counterparts due to tight urban-rural feedbacks with their immediate natural environments that result from heavy reliance and close management of local ecosystem services. They also may be less path-dependent than larger cities due to shorter average connection length among system components, contributing to higher responsiveness among social, infrastructural, and ecological feedbacks. These distinct midsize city features call for a framework that organizes information and concepts concerning the sustainability of midsize cities specifically. We argue that an integrative approach is necessary to capture properties emergent from the complex interactions of the social, infrastructural, and ecological subsystems that comprise a city system. We suggest approaches to estimate the relative resilience of midsize cities, and include an example assessment to illustrate one such estimation approach. Resilience assessments of a midsize city can be used to examine why some cities end up on sustainable paths while others diverge to unsustainable paths, and which feedbacks may be partially responsible. They also provide insight into how city planners and decision makers can use information about the resilience of midsize cities undergoing growth or shrinkage relative to their larger and smaller counterparts, to transform them into long-term, sustainable social-ecological systems.

Groundwater contamination in coastal urban areas: Anthropogenic pressure and natural attenuation processes. Example of Recife (PE State, NE Brazil)

In a context of increasing land use pressure (over-exploitation, surface-water contamination) and repeated droughts, identifying the processes affecting groundwater quality in coastal megacities of the tropical and arid countries will condition their long-term social and environmental sustainability. The present study focuses on the Brazilian Recife Metropolitan Region (RMR), which is a highly urbanized area (3,743,854 inhabitants in 2010) on the Atlantic coast located next to an estuarial zone and overlying a multi-layered sedimentary system featured by a variable sediment texture and organic content. It investigates the contamination and redox status patterns conditioning potential attenuation within the shallow aquifers that constitute the interface between the city and the strategic deeper semi-confined aquifers. These latter are increasingly exploited, leading to high drawdown in potenciometric levels of 20–30m and up to 70m in some high well density places, and potentially connected to the surface through leakage. From a multi-tracer approach (major ions, major gases, δ11B, δ18O-SO4, δ34S-SO4) carried out during two field campaigns in September 2012 and March 2013 (sampling of 19 wells and 3 surface waters), it has been possible to assess the contamination sources and the redox processes. The increasing trend for mineralization from inland to coastal and estuarial wells (from 119 to around 10,000μS/cm) is at first attributed to water-rock interactions combined with natural and human-induced potentiometric gradients. Secondly, along with this trend, one finds an environmental pressure gradient related to sewage and/or surface-channel network impacts (typically depleted δ11B within the range of 10–15‰) that are purveyors of chloride, nitrate, ammonium and sulfate. Nitrate, ammonium and sulfate (ranging from 0 to 1.70mmol/L, from 0 to 0,65mmol/L, from 0.03 to 3.91mmol/L respectively are also potentially produced or consumed through various redox processes (pyrite oxidation, denitrification, dissimilatory nitrate reduction to ammonium) within the system, as is apparent within a patchwork of biogeochemical reactors. Furthermore, intensive pumping in the coastal area with its high well density punctually leads to temporary well salinization ([Cl] reaching temporarily 79mmol/L). Our results, summarized as a conceptual scheme based on environmental conditions, is a suitable basis for implementing sustainable management in coastal sedimentary hydrosystems influenced by highly urbanized conditions.

Spatio-topological network analysis of hydrological infrastructure as a decision support tool for flood mitigation in coastal mega-cities

Hydrological infrastructure components such as pumps, floodgates, and flood gauges are invaluable assets for mitigating flooding, which threatens millions of lives and damages property worth billions of dollars in coastal mega-cities around the world. By improving the understanding of how these hydrological infrastructure components are both spatially and topologically connected through waterways (rivers, canals, streams, etc.) within coastal mega-cities, more precise decisions can be made regarding the most appropriate hydrological infrastructure components required to mitigate flooding during emergency conditions. This paper explores the use of graph theory to create a spatio-topological model of a real world hydrological infrastructure network for one of the most representative coastal mega-cities—Jakarta, Indonesia. The network is modeled as a directed multigraph, with hydrological infrastructure represented as network nodes and waterways as edges. The article demonstrates how the network model can be used as a real-time decision support tool for responding to flooding events by alerting decision makers to the occurrence of rising water levels in any given area and, suggesting the most appropriate infrastructure components to engage in order to prevent a given area from flooding.

Social vulnerability to floods in two coastal megacities: New York City and Mumbai

In this paper we assess differential exposure to flooding in two coastal megacities, New York and Mumbai, both of which suffered major flood-related disasters in the past decade. Specifically, we examine whether the most exposed populations are also the most socially vulnerable. First, we developed Social Vulnerability Indices (SoVIs) for each city with census data. We then overlaid the SoVI scores onto flood extent maps for Hurricane Sandy (New York, October 2012) and the Mumbai flash floods (July 2005), as well as for the evacuation zones for New York, to examine patterns of differential exposure. Our results suggest a degree of differential exposure in New York, especially in the highest flood risk areas, and provide fairly clear evidence for differential exposure in Mumbai. However, differences in the input resolution and confidence in the datasets for Mumbai make the results more uncertain. The paper concludes with a discussion of the policy implications and the data needs for urban spatial vulnerability assessments.

Modelling the anthropogenic impacts on fluvial flood risks in a coastal mega-city: A scenario-based case study in Shanghai, China

This paper describes a novel approach to the evaluation of anthropogenic impacts on flood risks in coastal mega-cities by incorporating three anthropogenic variables (land subsidence, urbanization and flood defence) within a scenario-based framework where numerical modelling was undertaken to quantify the risks. The evolving risks at four time points (1979, 1990, 2000 and 2009) were assessed for the Huangpu River floodplain where the city of Shanghai is located. A 2D hydrodynamic model (FloodMap-Inertial) was used to estimate the flood risks associated with each scenario. Flood events with various return periods (10-, 100- and 1000-year) were designed based on a one in 50 year flood event that occurred in Shanghai on August 1997.Results demonstrate the individual as well as the combined impacts of the three anthropogenic factors on the changing fluvial flood risks in the Huangpu River basin over the last three decades during the city's transitional economy (1979–2009). Land subsidence and urbanization were found to lead to proportionate but non-linear impact on flood risks due to their complex spatial and temporal interaction. The impacts and their sensitivity are the function of the rate and spatial distribution of each evolving factor. While the pattern of response to individual anthropogenic variables is largely expected, the combined impacts demonstrate greater spatial and temporal variation. Flood defences offer considerable benefits in reducing the total inundated areas in the Huangpu River basin over the periods considered, for all magnitude floods. This, to a large extent, alleviates the adverse impacts arising from land subsidence and urbanization.

Sources, impacts and trends of pharmaceuticals in the marine and coastal environment.

There has been a significant investment in research to define exposures and potential hazards of pharmaceuticals in freshwater and terrestrial ecosystems. A substantial number of integrated environmental risk assessments have been developed in Europe, North America and many other regions for these situations. In contrast, comparatively few empirical studies have been conducted for human and veterinary pharmaceuticals that are likely to enter coastal and marine ecosystems. This is a critical knowledge gap given the significant increase in coastal human populations around the globe and the growth of coastal megacities, together with the increasing importance of coastal aquaculture around the world. There is increasing evidence that pharmaceuticals are present and are impacting on marine and coastal environments. This paper reviews the sources, impacts and concentrations of pharmaceuticals in marine and coastal environments to identify knowledge gaps and suggests focused case studies as a priority for future research.

After Sandy: Rethinking Flood Risk Management in Asian Coastal Megacities

The tropical storm, and for a time hurricane, named Sandy arrived on the U.S. east coast on October 30, 2012, and delivered a 5.1-m storm surge, the highest since 1851, to the heart of the country’s financial hub in the Lower Manhattan area of New York City (NYC) (Fig. 1) [National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) 2012]. As a result, there were more than 40 fatalities across the city, and the storm-related death toll across the northeast United States reached 63. Sixty-nine deaths in the Caribbean region meant that the total number of casualties caused by the storm was 132 [British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) 2012; Fischetti 2012]. Public transport systems were submerged, the runways of two major airports (John F. Kennedy and Newark) were flooded and closed, and the New York Stock Exchange was shut down for 2 days. The forecasting firm Equcat estimated the likely total cost of damages to be more than $85 billion (Reuters 2012b). Reuters estimated damage of at least $18 billion in the area between downtown and Long Island alone (Reuters 2012a). To put this in context, the average annual losses from cyclones, storm surges, coastal floods, and winds in the United States are estimated to be in the region of just $10 billion per year. Although the magnitude of Sandy was less intense than Katrina in 2005, Sandy affected a larger area; the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA 2012) reported strong winds (greater than 65 km=h) for a distance of approximately 500 km during Hurricane Katrina, whereas Sandy prevailed for over 1,500 km at a similar intensity. This is possibly the main reason why Sandy generated sea surges over a larger coastal area than did Katrina, and affected more than 12 states on the east coast [China Central Television (CCTV) 2012]. Previous research (Webster et al. 2005) has indicated that the frequency and intensity of cyclones (i.e., hurricanes and typhoons) has increased in the past 50 years, and that the trend is expected to rise continuously this century because of climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2012) also reported that it is likely that there has been a poleward shift in the main Northern Hemisphere extratropical storm tracks, which means that the potential for intense storms that produce significant wind and extreme rainfall is slightly increased. The impact of Storm Sandy reflects the vulnerability of coastal megacities across the globe. This vulnerability exists because human settlement, including properties and infrastructure, is located mostly in low-lying flood-prone areas similar to those of New York City. The major financial hub of Wall Street, for example, is just a mile away from the harbor. An accepted definition of a megacity is a city with a population of 8 million or more (United Nations 2010). NYC has 8.2 million inhabitants, approximately 2 million of whom live on Long Island or smaller islands and in flood-prone areas. The city government realized that it would be impossible to relocate this number of people and associated assets outside of the hazard areas, and has therefore started to adapt flood-management strategies in preparation for climate change (NYC Government 2012). Adaptation practices such as assessment of surge risk, flood-risk mapping, prediction of risks from various climate scenarios, and enhanced emergency evacuation plans have been implemented since 2010 (Klima et al. 2011). The city’s storm warning system was activated some 41 h before Storm Sandy arrived, at which point city authorities announced the closure of the financial markets and advised residents to stock up on food and water. Recommendations to employ sandbags for flood

Dynamic Resilience to Climate Change Caused Natural Disasters in Coastal Megacities Quantification Framework

Objectives: The framework is designed to provide (i) for better understanding of factors contributing to urban resilience; and (ii) for comparison of climate change adaptation options. Methodology: Disasters occur at the intersection of hazards and vulnerabilities. As the climate changes, so do the patterns of climate hazards. Coastal megacities are faced with many challenges including (i) increased exposure to natural hazards such as hurricanes, typhoons, storm surges, sea-level rise and riverine flooding; (ii) pressures of increasing urbanization and population growth; and (iii) increased complexity of interacting subsystems. An original method for quantification of resilience is provided through spatial system dynamics simulation. The quantitative resilience framework combines economic, social, organizational, health and physical impacts of climate change caused natural disasters on coastal megacities. The developed measure defines resilience as a function of time and location in space. The framework is being implemented through the system dynamics model in an integrated computational environment. Conclusion: Data collection for the Coastal Megacity Resilience Simulator (CMRS) Research Article British Journal of Environment & Climate Change, 3(3): 378-401, 2013 379 model input and discussions with local decision makers are actively being pursued concurrent with the model development for the primary case study coastal city of Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. Future work includes developing policy driven adaptation scenarios, resilience model simulations, transfer of the resilience model to local community and capacity building.

Research Articles: Coastal Flood-Risk Management Practice in Tai O, a Town in Hong Kong

Coastal megadeltas in Asia have emerged rapidly; their megacities are particularly stressed by urbanization and rapid population growth. In the Pearl River Delta, towns in coastal megacities, such ...

Appraising sustainable flood risk management in the Pearl River Delta's coastal megacities: a case study of Hong Kong, China

The Pearl River Delta (PRD) region has experienced rapid economic and population growth in the last three decades. The delta includes coastal megacities, such as Hong Kong. These low-lying urbanised coastal regions in the PRD are vulnerable to flood risks from unpredictable climatic conditions. These can result in increasing storm surges, rising sea level and intensified rainstorms causing coastal and inland flooding, all of which impact the delta. This paper has taken the coastal megacity of Hong Kong as a case, focusing on two study sites: Shenzhen River and Tai O town, chosen for their peculiar inland and coastal flood problems. A sustainable flood risk appraisal (SFRA) template was developed against which sustainable flood risk management (FRM) practices in these sites were benchmarked. Thirty-eight stakeholders were interviewed during this research in order to understand the current FRM practices, their barriers and their constraints. It was found that FRM in the case study currently focuses on hard engineering, while neglecting other important sustainability indicators. A SFRA practice that takes public participation, equity of flood preparedness and environmental friendly into account could be effective in achieving sustainable flood risk mitigation practices in Hong Kong and other coastal cities in the PRD.

TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE FLOOD RISK MANAGEMENT IN THE CHINESE COASTAL MEGACITIES. A CASE STUDY OF PRACTICE IN THE PEARL RIVER DELTA

ABSTRACTThis article analyses the current flood risk management practices in the Pearl River Delta (PRD), China. In the next four decades, 120 million people are expected to live in the region, which currently covers 11 major cities, and includes the coastal megacities formed by Hong Kong and Shenzhen. These populous low‐lying coastal cities experience emerging flood risk from (i) intense precipitation, (ii) storm surges, (iii) global sea level rise and (iv) rapid urbanization in the flood‐prone areas. These have major economic, social and ecological impacts and have made it imperative to adopt a sustainable flood risk management strategy to mitigate these risks. This research uses the case study in Tai O and Shenzhen River sites from Hong Kong and Shenzhen where in‐depth discussions were held with various stakeholders to overview and understand current constraints to realizing sustainable flood risk management (SFRM). The outcome shows the authorities have realized the importance of SFRM and climate change adaptation strategies. They seek further improvement in managing flood risk and preparing for unpredictable climatic regimes in both megacities, and by extension comparable urbanizing coastal cities in the PRD and East Asia. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.