The effect of salinity on seed germination/emergence in narrow-leaved ash (Fraxinus angustifolia) was studied both under field and laboratory conditions, in order to detect critical values to NaCl exposure. Research Highlights: Novel statistical methods in germination ecology has been applied (i) to determine the effects of chilling length and salinity (up to 150 mM NaCl) on Fraxinus angustifolia subsp. oxycarpa seed emergence, and (ii) to estimate threshold limits treating germination response to salinity as a biomarker. Background and Objectives: Salinity cut values at germination stage had relevant interest for conservation and restoration aims of Mediterranean floodplain forests in coastal areas subjected to salt spray exposure and/or saline water introgression. Results: Salinity linearly decreased germination/emergence both in the field and laboratory tests. Absence of germination was observed at 60 mM NaCl in the field (70–84 mM NaCl depending on interpolation model) and at 150 mM NaCl for 4-week (but not for 24-week) chilling. At 50 mM NaCl, germination percentage was 50% (or 80%) of control for 4-week (or 24-week) chilling. Critical values for salinity were estimated between freshwater and 50 (75) mM NaCl for 4-week (24-week) chilling by Bayesian analysis. After 7-week freshwater recovery, critical cut-off values included all tested salinity levels up to 150 mM NaCl, indicating a marked resumption of seedling emergence. Conclusions: Fraxinus angustifolia is able to germinate at low salinity and to tolerate temporarily moderate salinity conditions for about two months. Prolonged chilling widened salinity tolerance.