Coastal Counties Research Articles

Socio-demographic disparities in the familiarity with coastal climate adaptation strategies: implications for coastal management and climate justice

AbstractPublic preferences for coastal climate adaptation strategies have been increasingly documented in the face of climate change and sea-level rise in coastal regions worldwide. However, empirical evidence of whether the public is familiar with these strategies remains unclear. In this study, we conducted an online survey among residents in three coastal counties in Southeast Florida, the United States to elicit households’ familiarity with different coastal climate adaptation strategies and examine the socio-demographic disparities. Using a multinomial logit model, we find that although most respondents are familiar with coastal climate adaptation strategies, socio-demographic disparities in the level of familiarity are evident. Specifically, Black respondents are significantly less likely to be familiar with coastal climate adaptation strategies when compared to their White counterparts. Moreover, having college degrees or more advanced degrees significantly increases the respondents’ probability of being very familiar with these strategies. Respondents’ risk perception and their awareness of current flood risk also significantly influence their familiarity with coastal climate adaptation strategies. Since adaptive planning often overlooks equitable access, and local support is essential for implementing climate adaptation strategies, our results can provide insightful policy implications for coastal management. A lack of familiarity with coastal climate adaptation strategies among marginalized and vulnerable populations can lead to insufficient support for these strategies aimed at mitigating climate risks, exacerbating the issue of climate justice.

Estimated incidence of symptomatic Lyme borreliosis cases in five southern coastal counties in Norway, 2022.

Lyme borreliosis (LB), the most common tick-borne disease in Europe, is endemic to southern coastal Norway. LB commonly presents as erythema migrans, which can disseminate, resulting in more severe disease such as Lyme neuroborreliosis or arthritis. In Norway, public health LB surveillance is conducted via mandatory reporting of laboratory-confirmed disseminated cases. From 2012 to 2022, Norway's surveillance-reported incidence of laboratory-confirmed disseminated LB increased by 78%. Although surveillance provides estimates of the incidence of disseminated LB, this study sought to estimate the incidence of symptomatic LB to better understand Norway's LB disease burden. Two studies were identified that, when combined, estimated an LB seroprevalence of 6.8% in the general adult population in southern Norway. Utilizing data from these seroprevalence studies, public health surveillance, and results from literature searches indicating that 37% of seroconverted LB cases are symptomatic and that the duration of LB antibody detection ranges from 10 to 20 years, we estimated that there were 315-630 symptomatic LB cases per 100,000 adult population in five southern coastal counties in Norway in 2022 and 24-48 cases of symptomatic LB for every public health surveillance-reported LB case in adults in these five counties in Norway.

Addressing Challenges to Ensuring Justice and Sustainability in Policy and Infrastructure for Texas Water Resources in the 21st Century

Environmental justice and sustainability have both become major concerns for water resource management, particularly with recent federal emphasis on environmental justice under the Biden administration in the United States. Texas, like many U.S. states, lags behind the federal government in this emphasis. While many localities have made progress in some respects—for example, some major Texas municipalities have included equity and sustainability metrics in their recent climate action plans—others have not. This has left a patchwork of persistent water management and availability issues that are exacerbated by extreme weather and worsening impacts of climate change. We provide a review of many of Texas’s water equity and sustainability challenges, both now and in a more extreme climate future. These include water access, affordability, contamination, flooding, drought, and aging infrastructure. For example, many Texas counties rank highest in the nation for flood risk, including coastal counties with high populations of disadvantaged communities and counties containing populations that live in persistent poverty in the Lower Rio Grande Valley. Additionally, approximately 44,000 Texans, or about 0.4% of the state population, lack access to complete plumbing facilities in their homes. The costs of water infrastructure leaks (estimated at about 51 gallons of water per day statewide) are shared across customers of all income levels, though they place a disproportionate burden on low-income customers. We then assess existing statewide and local policy and planning efforts and gaps in addressing these concerns in Texas. We focus particularly on the role of efforts to incorporate community voice—the ideas, concerns, needs, and expertise of impacted community members, dismantle causes of injustice, and improve equity in spending. If communities are not intentional with future development, new water infrastructure could continue to perpetuate existing harms. Thus, we provide a research agenda and recommendations for addressing some of the policy and planning gaps and persistent environmental justice issues. We aim to help water managers and policy makers identify and dismantle sources of inequity, particularly through including community voice.

Mapping Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substance Footprint from Cosmetics and Carpets across the Continental United States.

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) released from common consumer products, such as cosmetics and carpets, are nonpoint sources of environmental contamination. However, detailed information on PFAS mass and emission rates from these products is limited. Here, we propose a methodology to develop PFAS footprint from the manufacturing and supply chain data of cosmetics and carpets. Our analysis combines geospatial and statistical assessments to understand how the production and consumption of these products contribute to existing PFAS contamination hotspots in the Continental United States (CONUS). Statewide mass estimations revealed that North Carolina and New York contribute to the major PFAS mass released from cosmetics, while Georgia and California contribute to the major PFAS mass released from carpets. The average per capita PFAS footprint from carpets and cosmetics is about 103 mg/year. Upon disposal, over 60% of the mass eventually ends up in landfills. The accumulation of PFAS stocks in landfills, primarily from carpets and to some extent from cosmetics, highlights the critical need to cease the production and use of PFAS in consumer products. Coastal counties are particularly vulnerable due to higher population and therefore higher consumption of these PFAS-tainted consumer products. Additionally, counties with densely populated areas and with preexisting contamination sources would face increased vulnerability to PFAS contamination released from various consumer products.

Economic impacts at the county level of marine protected areas designation in China

Designating protected areas to balance environmental conservation and economic development is a widely debated issue. Evaluating the economic impacts of protected areas designation offers solutions to this challenge, and studying the economic impacts of China's marine protected areas (MPAs) holds particular significance due to their predominant location along the economically developed eastern coast of China. Treating MPAs designation as a quasi-natural experiment, it is analyzed using a multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) model based on the panel data of coastal counties during 2000–2021. The results consistently inform that China's MPAs designation has negative impacts on the economic development of coastal counties, and these negative economic impacts can accumulate over time. Mediator tests show that MPAs designation significantly hampers the improvement of the local industrial structure, which partially explains the negative economic impacts. This indicates that after the designation of MPAs in coastal counties, there is an opportunity cost in terms of economic development, highlighting the need for ecological compensation for the designation of MPAs in coastal counties. Additionally, the extent of the negative impacts varies depending on the location of the MPAs, with MPAs in the North Sea producing the biggest impacts and those in the South Sea the least. This suggests that priority should be given to the South Sea in selecting marine national parks to achieve a balance between economic and conservation objectives. The study effectively quantified the negative impact of MPAs on economic development within a novel context. The findings offer valuable insights for addressing the broader conflict between environmental protection and economic development.

Coccidioidomycosis seasonality in California: a longitudinal surveillance study of the climate determinants and spatiotemporal variability of seasonal dynamics, 2000–2021

Coccidioidomycosis, an emerging fungal disease in the western USA, exhibits seasonal patterns that are poorly understood, including periods of strong cyclicity, aseasonal intervals, and variation in seasonal timing that have been minimally characterized, and unexplained as to their causal factors. Coccidioidomycosis incidence has increased markedly in recent years, and our limited understanding of intra- and inter-annual seasonality has hindered the identification of important drivers of disease transmission, including climate conditions. In this study, we aim to characterize coccidioidomycosis seasonality in endemic regions of California and to estimate the relationship between drought conditions and coccidioidomycosis seasonal periodicity and timing. We analysed data on all reported incident cases of coccidioidomycosis in California from 2000 to 2021 to characterize seasonal patterns in incidence, and conducted wavelet analyses to assess the dominant periodicity, power, and timing of incidence for 17 counties with consistently high incidence rates. We assessed associations between seasonality parameters and measures of drought in California using a distributed lag nonlinear modelling framework. All counties exhibited annual cyclicity in incidence (i.e., a dominant wavelet periodicity of 12 months), but there was considerable heterogeneity in seasonal strength and timing across regions and years. On average, 12-month periodicity was most pronounced in the Southern San Joaquin Valley and Central Coast. Further, the annual seasonal cycles in the Southern San Joaquin Valley and the Southern Inland regions occurred earlier than those in coastal and northern counties, yet the timing of annual cycles became more aligned among counties by the end of the study period. Drought conditions were associated with a strong attenuation of the annual seasonal cycle, and seasonal peaks became more pronounced in the 1-2 years after a drought ended. We conclude that drought conditions do not increase the risk of coccidioidomycosis onset uniformly across the year, but instead promote increased risk concentrated within a specific calendar period (September to December). The findings have important implications for public health preparedness, and for how future shifts in seasonal climate patterns and extreme events may impact spatial and temporal coccidioidomycosis risk. National Institutes of Health.

Ad Hoc Adaptations to Climate Change in Coastal Communities

Climate change disproportionately impacts coastal residents in the United States. Existing studies document institutional efforts to adapt to sea level rise through projects like seawalls, beach nourishment, and property acquisitions to protect communities from rising seas. Such studies capture institutional adaptations, but do not include ad hoc adaptations by homeowners impacted by climate change. How are homeowners adapting to climate hazards? This paper analyzes ethnographic and interview data from 100 households in two coastal counties in North Carolina, a state with one of the most climate vulnerable shorelines in the country. This analysis of homeowner response considers ad hoc adaptations along the North Carolina coast. Results show that homeowners recognize climate hazards and regularly adapt on their own within the context of institutionally maintained flood protection infrastructure and transportation access to the places where they live. Residents are aware of and attempt to access support for home adaptations when programs or funds are available to them after disasters and do so with varying levels of success, though the more pervasive adaptations to chronic stress are not supported by government programs or insurance mechanisms. Ad hoc adaptations may provide short-term protection from climate hazards but have questionable long-term efficacy as sea levels rise and storm strength and frequency increases. Leaving communities and households to adapt on their own as chronic climate hazards outpace institutional response exacerbates existing inequalities by relying on residents with different levels of resources and agency to adapt.

Removing development incentives in risky areas promotes climate adaptation

As natural disasters grow in frequency and intensity with climate change, limiting the populations and properties in harm’s way will be key to adaptation. This study evaluates one approach to discouraging development in risky areas—eliminating public incentives for development, such as infrastructure investments, disaster assistance and federal flood insurance. Using machine learning and matching techniques, we examine the Coastal Barrier Resources System (CBRS), a set of lands where these federal incentives have been removed. We find that the policy leads to lower development densities inside designated areas, increases development in neighbouring areas, reduces flood damages and alters local demographics. Our results suggest that the CBRS generates substantial savings for the federal government by reducing flood claims in the National Flood Insurance Program, while increasing the property tax base in coastal counties.

Estimating the loss-reduction effects of disaster preparedness and mitigation: An empirical study of US coastal states.

As extreme weather events like floods and storms continue to increase, it is crucial to examine the degree to which various disaster preparedness and mitigation investments can lower these risks. In this research, we empirically examine the effects of multiple federal disaster aid programs on reducing subsequent flood- and storm-related damages across US coastal states. Our analysis distinguishes aid programs and their funded projects targeting different emergency management functions, including preparedness, nonstructural and structural mitigation, emergency response and protective measures, and rehabilitation of public infrastructure. We construct panel data of more than 1800 US counties over the years 2000-2019 and estimate a fixed-effects model with time-varying county-level socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. We find that disaster aid generally helps mitigate property damages, although this loss-reduction effect varies by program. Among all aid programs, the Emergency Management Performance Grant results in the largest reduction of future flood damages. The Public Assistance grants supporting emergency work are also found to exert a strong effect on risk reduction. We also find that the impacts of disaster aid are higher in coastal counties. Our study is one of the first few examining the resilience implication of disaster aid in coastal counties, and our results underscore the importance of investing in capacity building, contingency planning, and consistency in maintenance.

Occurrence and distribution of Papaya Mealybug (Paracoccus marginatus Williams and Granara de Willink) (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae) in the coastal area of Kenya

Papaya mealybug, Paracoccus marginatus Williams and Granara de Willink (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae) was first reported in Kenya in 2016. Kenya Plant Health Inspectorate Service (KEPHIS) together with other collaborators has since continuously carried out surveillance and management initiatives to contain the pest. In November and December 2020, a delimiting survey of the papaya mealybug (PMB) was conducted in six coastal counties. The survey was aimed at determining the incidence and intensity of infestations in the farms, host range in the region and to assess the farmers’ awareness on management options. Sixty-seven (67) farms were randomly sampled across the six counties. An open data kit (ODK) mobile tool generated questionnaires were administered to collect data on PMB incidence, infestation intensity and management practices applied and their effectiveness based on responses from farmers. Papaya mealybug was confirmed to occur in the six counties surveyed with incidences which ranged from 10- 100%. The intensity of infestation in the counties varied from very low to medium based on the applied scale and was higher on fruits compared to the leaves, stems and flowers. The survey further revealed that PMB infested citrus, sugarcane, okra and custard apple that were initially not reported as hosts. Majority (65%) of the farmers interviewed were aware about the occurrence of PMB on their crops and could positively identify and describe it. Some farmers had tried to manage the pest and the lowest incidence (3%) was recorded from fields where farmers combined chemical and cultural practices for management. In order to contain the impact and spread PMB, authorities and research institutions in Kenya may need to consider deploying classical biological control management which has successfully been deployed in other countries. Key words: Delimiting survey, incidence, infestation intensity, Kenya, papaya mealybug

Let 'Em Grow: Scalloping Best Practices

Recreational scalloping is a popular summertime activity that attracts participants from far and wide to Florida's Gulf Coast. Coastal counties that serve as vessel launch points rely on this fishery for economic viability, but the biology of the bay scallop and the environmental stressors this species endures have led to limited populations of bay scallops remaining along Florida's Gulf Coast . Therefore, it is essential to implement best practices for harvesting bay scallops so that future generations can enjoy this marine resource activity. This publication gives recreational scallopers tips on how to sort through scallops in the water so that scallops that are too small are returned immediately to the same spot where they were taken. Improving harvesting techniques can help sustain this valuable fishery.

Unleashing nature's defenders: Farmer-managed natural enemies field reservoirs (NEFRs) enhance management of the invasive papaya mealybug (Paracoccus marginatus) in coastal Kenya

The papaya mealybug (PMB), Paracoccus marginatus, infests a wide range of plant species, including economically important crops, like papaya, citrus, cassava, and avocado, leading to significant economic losses. The parasitoid, Acerophagous papayae has been shown to manage the pest and was introduced in three coastal counties of Kenya from 2021. Natural Enemies Field Reservoirs (NEFRs), a technology that serves as in-situ production of A.papayae, were established in farmers’ fields in the three counties to assess their effectiveness in controlling the papaya mealybug in Kenya. Three treatments were set up including a. ‘No prior A. papayae release + NEFR’, b. ‘Prior A. papayae release + NEFR’, and c. ‘Prior A. papayae release but no NEFR’ (control). PMB populations decreased by 49.12 % and 62.8 % in treatments a and b, respectively, but increased by 37.6 % in the control. On the other hand, the absolute count of A. papayae increased by 456 %, 190 % and 51.6 % in treatments a, b and c, the control, respectively. Consequently, the parasitism rates increased by 116.7 % and 17.8 % in treatments a, and b, respectively but declined by 10.3 % in the control. The most abundant predators out of ten recovered genera were Cryptolaemus montrouzieri (44.0 %), Tenuisvalvae notata (23.9 %) and Exochomus sp. (19.9 %). The highest abundance and diversity of predators was recorded in treatment b ‘Prior A. papayae release + NEFR’ and the least abundance and diversity in the control. This study sheds light in the critical role of NEFRs in the management of PMB and its underscored potential as an effective, low-cost, farmer managed technology is discussed.

Mobility behaviors shift disparity in flood exposure in U.S. population groups

The current characterization of flood exposure is largely based on residential location of populations; however, location of residence only partially captures the extent to which populations are exposed to flood hazards. An important, yet under-recognized aspect of flood exposure is associated with human mobility patterns and population visitation to places located in flood prone areas. In this study, we analyzed large-scale, high-resolution location-intelligence data collected from anonymous mobile phone users to characterize human mobility patterns and the resulting flood exposure in coastal counties of the United States. We developed the metric of mobility-based exposure based on dwell time in places located in the 100-year floodplain. The results of examining the extent of mobility-based flood exposure across demographic groups reveal significant disparities across race, income, and education level groups. The results show that Black and Asian, economically disadvantaged, and undereducated populations in US coastal cities are disproportionally exposed to flood due to their daily mobility activities, indicating a pattern contrary to that of residential flood exposure. The results suggest that mobility behaviors play an important role in extending flood exposure reach disproportionally among different socio-demographic groups. The results highlight that urban flood risk assessments should not only focus on the level of flood exposure to residences, but also should consider mobility-based exposure to better learn the disparities in flood exposure among social groups. Mobility-based flood exposure provides a new perspective regarding the extent to which floods could disrupt people's life activities and enable a better characterization of disparity in populations' exposure to flood hazards beyond their place of residence. The findings of this study have important implications for urban planners, flood managers, and city officials in terms of accounting for mobility-based flood exposure in flood risk management plans and actions.

Detection of pathogenic bacteria in ticks from Isiolo and Kwale counties of Kenya using metagenomics.

Ticks are arachnid ectoparasites that rank second only to mosquitoes in the transmission of human diseases including bacteria responsible for anaplasmosis, ehrlichiosis, spotted fevers, and Lyme disease among other febrile illnesses. Due to the paucity of data on bacteria transmitted by ticks in Kenya, this study undertook a bacterial metagenomic-based characterization of ticks collected from Isiolo, a semi-arid pastoralist County in Eastern Kenya, and Kwale, a coastal County with a monsoon climate in the southern Kenyan border with Tanzania. A total of 2,918 ticks belonging to 3 genera and 10 species were pooled and screened in this study. Tick identification was confirmed through the sequencing of the Cytochrome C Oxidase Subunit 1 (COI) gene. Bacterial 16S rRNA gene PCR amplicons obtained from the above samples were sequenced using the MinION (Oxford Nanopore Technologies) platform. The resulting reads were demultiplexed in Porechop, followed by trimming and filtering in Trimmomatic before clustering using Qiime2-VSearch. A SILVA database pretrained naïve Bayes classifier was used to classify the Operational Taxonomic Units (OTUs) taxonomically. The bacteria of clinical interest detected in pooled tick assays were as follows: Rickettsia spp. 59.43% of pools, Coxiella burnetii 37.88%, Proteus mirabilis 5.08%, Cutibacterium acnes 6.08%, and Corynebacterium ulcerans 2.43%. These bacteria are responsible for spotted fevers, query fever (Q-fever), urinary tract infections, skin and soft tissue infections, eye infections, and diphtheria-like infections in humans, respectively. P. mirabilis, C. acnes, and C. ulcerans were detected only in Isiolo. Additionally, COI sequences allowed for the identification of Rickettsia and Coxiella species to strain levels in some of the pools. Diversity analysis revealed that the tick genera had high levels of Alpha diversity but the differences between the microbiomes of the three tick genera studied were not significant. The detection of C. acnes, commonly associated with human skin flora suggests that the ticks may have contact with humans potentially exposing them to bacterial infections. The findings in this study highlight the need for further investigation into the viability of these bacteria and the competency of ticks to transmit them. Clinicians in these high-risk areas also need to be appraised for them to include Rickettsial diseases and Q-fever as part of their differential diagnosis.

Environmental justice implications of flood risk in the contiguous United States – a spatiotemporal assessment of flood exposure change from 2001 to 2019

ABSTRACT Flood hazard is one of America’s most frequent and expensive natural hazards and causes enormous economic losses in the United States every year. Flood hazards disproportionately affect marginalized and socioeconomically disadvantaged populations. This disproportionate flood exposure constitutes a form of environmental injustice. Few studies have undertaken a large-scale assessment of the long-term change of flood exposure. To fill this gap, this study utilized land use and flood zone data from 2001 to 2019 at a 5-year interval to analyze spatiotemporal changes in flood exposure in the Contiguous United States (CONUS). Two indices, the Deviational Exposure Index and Socioeconomic Disparity Index, were introduced to measure flood exposure and the socioeconomic disparities associated with flood exposure. At the national level, the overall flood exposure in the CONUS decreased in the past two decades, indicating increasing awareness of flood risk in the country. But the local variations of flood exposure and its changing trends vary among communities. In general, coastal and riverine counties show a general avoidance of developing urban areas in flood zones, while inland counties show an opposite tendency of urban development in floodplains. The results of this study reveal socioeconomic and demographic disparities between communities in and out of flood zones and evaluate environmental injustice among disadvantaged populations. The knowledge learned from this study can not only help address environmental justice issues but also benefit the decision-making of the federal government and local authorities in urban development and smart growth when faced with flood risk.

Challenges and opportunities for improving access to adolescent and youth sexual and reproductive health services and information in the coastal counties of Kenya: a qualitative study

BackgroundGlobally, adolescents and youth experience high unmet need for sexual and reproductive health (SRH) information and services. In Kenya, evidence shows that more than half of teenage pregnancies are unintended and that half of all new HIV infections occur in people ages 15-24-year-olds, with the majority of those being female. The coastal counties in Kenya record a relatively high adolescent pregnancy rate and higher rates of unmet need for contraception for all women of reproductive age compared to the national average. This study focused on gaining a deeper understanding of the existing challenges to and opportunities for accessing SRH information and services among adolescents and youth (AY) at the Kenyan coast.MethodsUsing qualitative methods, this study conducted thirty-six focus group discussions with adolescents, youth, and community health volunteers across all the six coastal counties in Kenya. The sample included adolescents aged 10–14 years in school (male and female), adolescents aged 15–19 years not in education (male and female), youths aged 20–24 years (mix of both male and female), and community health volunteers who were conveniently sampled. Thematic analysis was used to examine the data and report the study results.ResultsThe barriers to accessing AYSRH identified in the study are individual factors (feelings of shame, lack of information, and fear of being judged) parental factors, healthcare worker and health institution factors, teacher/educators factors, and broader contextual factors such as culture, religion, poverty, and illiteracy. Factors that facilitate access to AYSRH information and services included, supportive parenting and culture, AYSRH sessions in schools, peer support, supportive health institutions, gender inclusivity, and digital technology.ConclusionsAYSRH information and services at the Kenyan coast is strongly influenced by a range of individual, social, cultural, and economic factors. Improving access to AYSHR necessitates meaningful AY engagement, provision of youth-friendly services, use of digital technology as alternative pathways for sharing SRH information, strengthening parent-AY relationships, embracing peer-to-peer support, and the adoption of gender-inclusive approaches in AYSRH programming.

Rethinking landscape ecological risk assessment and its applicability: Counterintuitive findings from coastal areas

AbstractLandscape ecological risk assessment (LERA) serves as a crucial tool for guiding effective environmental management. However, the conventional approach of LERA suffers from two notable drawbacks: the utilization of low‐resolution land‐use data (e.g., 30 × 30 m) and the application of arbitrary evaluation units (e.g., uniformly‐sized grids), both of which introduce uncertainty and inaccuracies into the assessment outcomes. Moreover, the extent to which the traditional LERA accurately reflects the true ecological risk level remains unexplored. To address these limitations, this study presents a modified LERA conducted in Xiapu, a coastal county in China, spanning the years 2013–2015. Fine‐grained land‐use data were employed to overcome the shortcomings of low‐resolution data. Additionally, spatial correlations between land‐use changes and ecological risk alterations were analyzed to unravel the mechanisms behind land‐use changes' impact on ecological risk, while also testing the accuracy of LERA results. Major findings can be summarized as follows: (1) Ecological risk changes in Xiapu during 2013–2015 were relatively minor, with high‐risk areas predominantly concentrated along the coast. (2) A total of 1137 ha of land in Xiapu County experienced changes, with construction land witnessing the most substantial increase. (3) Counterintuitive and unreasonable LERA outcomes were identified, particularly pertaining to illogical ecological risk changes arising from transformations between construction and non‐construction land. (4) Based on the counterintuitive findings, potential factors affecting the limitations and applicability of LERA were discussed. This study represents the first critical examination of the limitations of LERA, offering valuable insights to stimulate future researchers to rethink LERA and emphasize the importance of validating assessment outcomes during its application.

Oil Spill Sensitivity Analysis of the Coastal Waters of Taiwan Using an Integrated Modelling Approach

Pollution caused by marine oil spills can lead to persistent ecological disasters and severe social and economic damages. Numerical simulations are useful and essential tools for accurate decision making during emergencies and planning response actions. In this study, we applied the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) to determine current data, including seawater velocity, salinity, and temperature, and we obtained the fate and trajectory of spilled oil using OpenOil. Several probable oil slicks around Taiwan were simulated over time (12 months) and space (four spill locations in the marine area of each coastal city or county) using the model. The percentage risk under the effect of an oil spill is estimated. The risk zone of the coastal waters of Taiwan was identified based on the frequency of simulated oil slicks hitting the coast and sensitive resources. This information not only helps authorities guide the preparation of effective plans to minimise the impacts of oil spill incidents but could also be used to improve regulations related to shipping and vessel navigation in regional seas.

Climate migration amplifies demographic change and population aging.

The warnings of potential climate migration first appeared in the scientific literature in the late 1970s when increased recognition that disintegrating ice sheets could drive people to migrate from coastal cities. Since that time, scientists have modeled potential climate migration without integrating other population processes, potentially obscuring the demographic amplification of this migration. Climate migration could amplify demographic change-enhancing migration to destinations and suppressing migration to origins. Additionally, older populations are the least likely to migrate, and climate migration could accelerate population aging in origin areas. Here, we investigate climate migration under sea-level rise (SLR), a single climatic hazard, and examine both the potential demographic amplification effect and population aging by combining matrix population models, flood hazard models, and a migration model built on 40 y of environmental migration in the United States to project the US population distribution of US counties. We find that the demographic amplification of SLR for all feasible Representative Concentration Pathway-Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (RCP-SSP) scenarios in 2100 ranges between 8.6-28 M [5.7-53 M]-5.3 and 18 times the number of migrants (0.4-10 M). We also project significant aging of coastal areas as youthful populations migrate but older populations remain, accelerating population aging in origin areas. As the percentage of the population lost due to climate migration increases, the median age also increases-up to 10+ y older in some highly impacted coastal counties. Additionally, our population projection approach can be easily adapted to investigate additional or multiple climate hazards.

Securitisation and spaces of terrorism in Kenya’s National Police Service counterterrorism discourse

ABSTRACT The northeastern and coastal counties of Kenya are characterised by a high prevalence of terrorism and counterterrorism conducted by the Somalia-based Al-Shabaab terror group and the country’s National Police Service, respectively. The National Police Service (NPS) is Kenya’s principal counterterrorism state agency. This article examines how the National Police Service online counterterrorism discourse constructs these two regions as spaces of terrorism. The article adopts the securitisation theory and a critical discourse analysis perspective to analyse the National Police Service discourse as speech acts hence securitising moves, The speech acts discursively construct the two regions as spaces of terrorism hence threats to physical and human security. The construction enables to the National Police Service to legitimise and implement urgent repressive counterterrorism measures. The conditions that facilitate the discursive construction of threats and acceptance of the speech acts are the marginalisation of the inhabitants and terrorism in the regions. The conclusion offers ways of mitigating the adverse effects of the NPS counterterrorism discourse.