CO2 Reduction Policies Research Articles

Impact of aircraft lifetime change on lifecycle CO2 emissions and costs in Japan

Airline industry CO2 emissions have increased rapidly; air transportation released approximately 2.8% of global fuel-combustion-based CO2 emissions in 2019. Focusing on Japan, this study explored the introduction of new passenger aircraft as a CO2-reduction policy. To this end, the lifetime distribution function for passenger aircraft was specified. Lifecycle CO2 emissions and the associated costs between 1965 and 2019 were then estimated. The results showed that single-aisle aircraft followed a Rayleigh distribution with a mean of 13.42, while twin-aisle aircraft followed a normal distribution with a mean of 19.82. The reduction potential of lifecycle CO2 emissions is 28.2 Mt. over 55 years by extending the lifetime +11 years of single-aisle aircraft and shortening the lifetime −8 years of twin-aisle aircraft. If the average fuel intensity of aircraft inflow improves steadily, the shortened lifetime and introduction of more fuel-efficient aircraft contribute to a decrease in lifecycle CO2 emissions. However, the cost associated with the lifecycle CO2 emission reductions is USD 94.0 billion, and airlines need to pay USD 3.4 thousand to reduce CO2 emissions by one unit. In sum, the introduction of new aircraft was shown to be cost-ineffective as a CO2-reduction policy, and airlines need to switch to less costly alternatives.

Forecasting model of activities of the city-level for management of CO2 emissions applicable to various cities

CO2 reduction has become one of the most critical issues globally, and considering sustainable development, many countries are implementing and reviewing CO2 reduction policies. To examine the effect of the CO2 reduction policies, a forecasting model that considers the relationship between variables such as population, building area, industries, vehicle use, and the environment is required. Moreover, this model should also be applicable to various cities to support effective policymaking. In this study, we develop a model that can predict CO2 emissions from the relationship between the variables using System Dynamics, a method to model cities to represent one system composed of various variables. To expand the applicability of the model to various cities in Japan, the proposed model assigns statistical data as input data that can be obtained in any city and standardizes the system structure and variables of the model. In this study, we selected three cities, namely Fukuoka, Kashiwa, and Kumano, which had different populations and industrial characteristics. The calculation accuracy error of CO2 emissions for the three cities was found to be less than 6%. In addition, through the parameter study, it was confirmed that the proposed model can be used to examine the sectors that require CO2 reduction policies, along with the optimal application period. This study aims to provide an effective model that can help in CO2 forecasting and thus in environmental and sustainable development policymaking. Our approach to the CO2 forecasting model facilitates calculating effective CO2 reductions in various cities.

Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis on CO2 Emissions: Evidence for China

China is the largest CO2 emitter in the world, and it shared 28% of the global CO2 emissions in 2017. According to the Paris Agreement, it is estimated that China’s CO2 emissions will reach its peak by 2030. However, whether or not the CO2 emissions in China will rise again from its peak is still unknown. If the emission level continues to increase, the Chinese policymakers might have to introduce a severe CO2 reduction policy. The aim of this paper is to conduct an empirical analysis on the long-standing relationship between CO2 emissions and income while controlling energy consumption, trade openness, and urbanization. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and the bounds test were adopted in evaluating the validity of the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. The quantile regression was also used as an inference approach. The study reveals two major findings: first, instead of the conventional U-shaped EKC hypothesis, there is the N-shaped relationship between CO2 emissions and real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in the long run. Second, a positive effect of energy consumption and a negative effect of urbanization on CO2 emissions, in the long run, are also estimated. Quantitatively, if energy consumption rises by 1%, then CO2 emissions will increase by 0.9% in the long run. Therefore, the findings suggest that a breakthrough, in terms of policymaking and energy innovation under China’s specific socioeconomic and political circumstances, are required for future decades.

Transportation emissions scenarios for New York City under different carbon intensities of electricity and electric vehicle adoption rates.

Like many cities around the world, New York City is establishing policies to reduce CO2 emissions from all energy sectors by 2050. Understanding the impact of varying degrees of electric vehicle adoption and CO2 intensities on emissions reduction in the city is critical. Here, using a technology-rich, bottom-up, energy system optimization model, we analyse the cost and air emissions impacts of New York City's proposed CO2 reduction policies for the transportation sector through a scenario framework. Our analysis reveals that the electrification of light-duty vehicles at earlier periods is essential for deeper reductions in air emissions. When further combined with energy efficiency improvements, these actions contribute to CO2 reductions under the scenarios of more CO2-intense electricity. Substantial reliance on fossil fuels and a need for structural change pose challenges to cost-effective CO2 reductions in the transportation sector. Here we find that uncertainties associated with decarbonization of the electric grid have a minimum influence on the cost-effectiveness of CO2 reduction pathways for the transportation sector.

Energy consumption, CO2 emissions and economic growth in MENA countries

This study investigates the relationship between economic growth, final consumption, investment, energy use and CO2  emissions in two groups of Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries: Oil Poor Countries (OPC) and Oil Rich Countries (ORC). It is assumed and verified that the structural relationship between GDP growth, energy use and CO2  emissions is different in these two groups of countries. FGLS panel estimations were carried out over the period 1974–2014. In ORC, no significant relationships are observed between energy use and GDP, whereas CO2 emissions and GDP are positively linked. In OPC, there are opposite connections: a positive link between GDP and energy use, whereas the impact of CO2  emissions on GDP tends to be negative. In both groups of countries, a positive and bi-directional link is observed between energy use and CO2  emissions. The strength of this link is twice bigger in OPC than in ORC. This indicates that CO2 reduction policies conducted through energy use control (quantitative and qualitative) will have higher effect in OPC than in ORC. This also shows that the relationships between economic growth, energy use and CO2  emissions differ noticeably and structurally between OPC and ORC. These results provide new insights into the opportunities and threats faced by CO2 reduction policies in OPCs and ORCs.

Spillover and dynamic effects of energy transition and economic growth on carbon dioxide emissions for the European Union: A dynamic spatial panel model

AbstractThis paper introduces “spatial effects” and “dynamic effects” to investigate the influences of economic growth and energy transition on cross‐country CO2 emissions movements within the European Union (EU). We apply the fixed‐effects dynamic spatial Durbin error model to empirically gauge the magnitude of the spatial impacts and dynamic impacts for a sample of 26 EU countries throughout 1990–2015. By analyzing the empirical results, we conclude that: (1) Compared with dynamic spatial Durbin error model, the traditional dynamic panel model over‐estimates the parameters because traditional regression methods only capture the direct impacts, and neglect the indirect impacts. (2) A significant positive spatial spillover of CO2 emissions from neighboring countries to the local country is recognized, justifying the use of our spatial model. (3) Economic growth has positive impacts on CO2 emissions, while the spatial effects of economic growth exert negative impacts. Moreover, the total effects of economic growth are positive in both short‐term and long‐term. (4) Although the spatial effects of renewable energy are not significant, renewable energy has negative influences on CO2 emissions. (5) The impacts and spatial effects of natural gas are positive; therefore, its total effects are positive in both short‐run and long‐run. Based on our finding, we provide several policy recommendations, such as the emphasize of cooperation with CO2 reduction policies, the promotion of green economy and renewable energy, and the substitution of natural gas in the future.

Identification of optimal transitions towards climate footprint reduction targets using a linear multi-period carbon integration approach

Multi-period carbon integration identified CO2 reduction schemes over a time horizon towards a specified target. Previously proposed multi-period approaches involving mixed integer non-linear formulations are difficult to solve. This paper introduces a two-step optimization approach to evaluate CO2 reduction policies using a mixed integer linear program (MILP) through decomposition. The first step includes an exhaustive search of optimal low cost source-sink connections to process non-linear information involving pipeline, multistage compressor sizing and costing into linear/piece-wise linear optimal costs. The second step applies these models in the linear multi-period optimization model to design cost optimal CO2 reduction networks. An example is solved where the method robustly and quickly found cost optimal solutions for CO2 capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) networks coupled with Renewable Energy (RE) schemes. It shows how the method can be applied to assess prescribed CO2 emissions reduction policies and identify improved policies resulting in reduced mitigation costs.

Comparing the territorial performances of renewable energy sources' plants with an integrated ecosystem services loss assessment: A case study from the Basilicata region (Italy)

Territorial transformations are currently influenced by the combination of multi-scale processes that generate complex change dynamics. In particular, we focus on the emerging conflicts between CO2 reduction policies and the preservation of natural and ecosystem values on a the local scale. Global policies stimulate a generalized effort in promoting the transition towards a low carbon economy, and a relevant component of such a development process is connected with Renewable Energy Sources (RES). Such technological settlement processes in low density areas generate relevant impacts.This paper discusses an ex-post-impact assessment methodology based on cumulative ecosystem services losses in a specific study area: the Melfi municipality in the Basilicata region (Italy).The proposed methodology, starting from a temporal evolution of RES plants, considers the ecosystem services estimation based on InVEST tools in order to deliver spatial multicriteria maps of the resulting territorial impacts. These results allowed to clarified the limits of a local sectorial planning approach and highlighted the opportunities offered by performance-based planning in assessing alternative transformation scenarios.The conclusions regard policy implications towards a multidimensional performance-based planning system where alternative low carbon transition scenarios could be compared in order to take into account territorial specializations and identity assets as a tool to drive decision-making in a sustainable planning perspective.

Unilateral Co2 Reduction Policy with More than One Carbon Energy Source

We examine an open economy’s strategy to reduce its carbon emissions by replacing its consumption of coal—very carbon intensive—with gas—less so. Unlike the standard theoretical approach to carbon leakage, we show that unilateral CO2 reduction policies generate a higher leakage rate in the presence of more than one carbon energy source, and may turn counterproductive, ultimately increasing world emissions. We establish testable conditions as to whether a unilateral tax on domestic CO2 emissions increases the domestic exploitation of gas, and whether such a strategy increases global emissions. We also characterize this strategy’s implications for climate policy in the rest of the world. Finally, we present an illustrative application of our results to the US.

Inter-regional carbon flows embodied in electricity transmission: network simulation for energy-carbon nexus

Energy use and CO2 emissions are inextricably linked. Energy utilization leads to an increase in CO2 emissions, which will in turn limit the formulation of energy policies and stability of energy systems. A provincial-scale Energy-Carbon Nexus Model is established to shed insight into the complicated system interactions among provinces. Specifically, different power generation types are considered to quantify the inter-provincial transfers of CO2 embodied in electricity transmission through the Multiregional Input-Output Analysis. Ecological Network Analysis is used to describe the integral mutual relationships between provinces and distinguish the control intensity of each province from different CO2 flows directions. Five new Energy-carbon emission factors are first performed to provide a more accurate assessment of the province's emissions capacity from different perspectives. Based on the theoretical basis of energy-carbon nexus, the emission reduction simulations considering energy substitution policy can be conducted to forecast the changes of provincial responsibility under different interventions. Results show that some provinces (e.g., Beijing) depend heavily on the supply of other provinces because of their low self-sufficiency rate in electricity, while some provinces (e.g., Guangdong) have high self-sufficiency rate and still emit more CO2 to other provinces to promote their own development. The importance of East China to the system cannot be ignored, but it should also undertake more responsibility for reducing emissions. However, the pace of development in Shandong will slow down because it mainly relies on coal power generation to indirectly promote the development of other provinces. What's more, importing electricity to achieve emission reduction may result in a rebound in indirect emissions and have a negative impact on the region's use of its own energy resources. This paper offers a new way to reveal details of energy-carbon interrelations across provinces and the achievements could provide references for formulating CO2 reduction policies of China electricity trading.

Public Access to Building Related Energy Data for Better Decision Making in Implementing Energy Efficiency Strategies: Legal Barriers and Technical Challenges

The EU is committed to achieve ambitious energy efficiency and CO2 reduction targets. Regarding improving the energy performance of the building stock, detailed building related energy data made accessible by means of GIS are crucial. For this purpose, geo-referenced data from Energy Performance Certificates (EPC) according to the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive is of central importance, in order to facilitate decision-making about large-scale renovation projects and developing targeted products and services. The ENERFUND project developed a method and subsequently an internet based tool making use of EPC data from 13 EU member states as well as other open-source data (such as renovation costs), thus clearly demonstrating the feasibility and usefulness of this approach. However, also technical challenges and legal barriers were encountered, such as a lack of data and varying data specifications depending on the national transposition of the European Directive, and different interpretation of specific clauses of the General Data Protection Regulation depending on EU member states’ societal norms. Recommendations include the development of guidance notes to be issued by the responsible EU bodies to specify and harmonize data for mandatory public access, to ensure the effective implementation of energy efficiency and CO2 reduction policies in the EU’s building sector.

Energy foresight: Exploration of CO2 reduction policy scenario for Ecuador during 2016–2030

The energy sector is an important factor that influences life quality and economic prosperity. Differences in infrastructure, technology and even in culture of each country make it imperative to include their own characteristics into energy analyses, making it necessary to identify the different types of sources of CO2 emissions and their magnitudes. The aim of this paper is to present a foresight analysis of the productive and energy matrices dynamics in Ecuador for the period 2016–2030 and to propose public policy that contributes to sustainable development. In a first stage, the research has an explanatory character, referring to construction of a model, which uses an extended variation of the Kaya Identity where the volume of CO2 emissions may be examined quantifying contributions of productive sectors activity, sectorial energy intensity, energy matrix, and CO2 emission features. Subsequently, the research acquires a predictive-experimental nature, using exploratory scenarios. That allows linking historic and present events with hypothetical futures. In consequence, driving forces of the scenario can be explained and analysed using quantitative modelling based on the Kaya Identity and qualitative narratives. Within this study two scenarios were built. The Business as Usual scenario, without modifying the structure of productive and energy matrices, and the Alternative scenario that seeks to reduce the consumption of oil derivatives in land transport, which consumes 50% of the country’s energy demand. The Alternative scenario, which promotes the use of biofuels, projects to reduce the CO2 emissions from 45.58 to 43.41 Mt of CO2 equivalent for 2030. The policy on biofuels in Ecuador is at an early stage. So, biofuels offer important opportunities: i) diversification of the energy matrix, ii) contribution to energy security, iii) promotion of the growth of the industrial sector, and iv) substitution of fossil fuels and mitigation of the greenhouse gas effects.

The Spatiotemporal Pattern of Decoupling Transport CO2 Emissions from Economic Growth across 30 Provinces in China

Since 2005, China has become the largest emitter of CO2. The transport sector is a major source of CO2 emissions, and the most rapidly growing sector in terms of fuel consumption and CO2 emissions in China. This paper estimated CO2 emissions in the transport sector across 30 provinces through the IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change) top-down method and identified the spatiotemporal pattern of the decoupling of transport CO2 emissions from economic growth during 1995 to 2016 by the modified Tapio’s decoupling model. The CO2 emissions in the transport sector increased from 103.10 million ton (Mt) in 1995 to 701.04 Mt in 2016. The year, 2005, was a turning point as the growth rate of transport CO2 emissions and the intensity of transport CO2 emissions declined. The spatial pattern of transport CO2 emissions and its decoupling status both exhibited an east-west differentiation. Nearly 80% of the provinces recently achieved decoupling, and absolute decoupling is beginning to take place. The local practices of Tianjin should be the subject of special attention. National carbon reduction policies have played a significant role in achieving a transition to low-carbon emissions in the Chinese transport sector, and the integration of multi-scale transport CO2 reduction policies will be promising for its decarbonisation.

Spatial Association and Effect Evaluation of CO2 Emission in the Chengdu-Chongqing Urban Agglomeration: Quantitative Evidence from Social Network Analysis

Urban agglomeration, an established urban spatial pattern, contributes to the spatial association and dependence of city-level CO2 emission distribution while boosting regional economic growth. Exploring this spatial association and dependence is conducive to the implementation of effective and coordinated policies for regional level CO2 reduction. This study calculated CO2 emissions from 2005–2016 in the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration with the IPAT model, and empirically explored the spatial structure pattern and association effect of CO2 across the area leveraged by the social network analysis. The findings revealed the following: (1) The spatial structure of CO2 emission in the area is a complex network pattern, and in the sample period, the CO2 emission association relations increased steadily and the network stabilization remains strengthened; (2) the centrality of the cities in this area can be categorized into three classes: Chengdu and Chongqing are defined as the first class, the second class covers Deyang, Mianyang, Yibin, and Nanchong, and the third class includes Zigong, Suining, Meishan, and Guangan—the number of cities in this class is on the rise; (3) the network is divided into four subgroups: the area around Chengdu, south Sichuan, northeast Sichuan, and west Chongqing where the spillover effect of CO2 is greatest; and (4) the higher density of the global network of CO2 emission considerably reduces regional emission intensity and narrows the differences among regions. Individual networks with higher centrality are also found to have lower emission intensity.

Intensive carbon dioxide emission of coal chemical industry in China

As the largest producer of coal chemical products in the world, China faces tremendous pressure to reduce its carbon emission. An accurate quantification of the carbon dioxide (CO2) emission of coal chemical industry in China is therefore necessary. However, due to the variety of coal chemical products and limitations of CO2 emission factors, the total CO2 emission of coal chemical industry has yet to be determined. In this study, local CO2 emission factors of coal chemical products in China are published based on first hand data from twenty-three coal chemical enterprises and the total CO2 emission of China's coal chemical industry is extrapolated. The provincial-level spatial distribution of the CO2 emission of coal chemical industry is presented to assist the government in identifying key emission reduction areas. Additionally, scenario analysis of CO2 emission for China’s modern coal chemical industry in 2020 is conducted to determine whether the development of the modern coal chemical industry will have a significant impact on future CO2 emission, as well as the effect of carbon capture, utilization and storage technologies on the reduction in carbon emission. The estimate shows that the total CO2 emission of the coal chemical industry in 2015 was 607 million tonnes (Mt), accounting for approximately 5.71% of China’s total CO2 emission. The figure is higher than the total annual CO2 emission of a country such as Canada (555 Mt) or Brazil (486 Mt). Quantifying the emission of the coal chemical industry is therefore critical to understand the global carbon budget. The spatial distribution shows that Shandong, Inner Mongolia and Shanxi release one-third of the coal chemical industry’s total CO2 emission. Considering the development of the modern coal chemical industry, its CO2 emission is predicted to be as high as 416.52 million tonnes in 2020. However, the CO2 emission could be reduced by 317.98 million tonnes when carbon capture, utilization and storage are applied to process and energy systems simultaneously. This paper quantifies the CO2 emission of the coal chemical industry in China for the first time, identifies key chemical products and the provinces in which they are produced, explores the carbon reduction potential by scenario analysis, and provides specific data to support the assessment of effective CO2 reduction policy.

Did carbon dioxide emission regulations inhibit investments? A provincial panel analysis of China.

Investments, especially fixed asset investments, greatly affect carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. When investments are concentrated in regions with high CO2 emissions and high fossil energy consumption, the CO2 emission reduction targets in these areas are difficult to reach in the short term, and the cost of CO2 emission abatement is high. The current CO2 emission regulations focus on existing production activities and consumption behaviors. However, whether an investment, which may affect CO2 emissions in the long term, is effectively inhibited by CO2 emission regulations has not been investigated in previous studies. Using panel data from 30 provinces in China between 2003 and 2012, we tested whether the amount of provincial investment was constrained or promoted by the provincial CO2 emission regulations by creating a panel model with provincial samples. The results revealed that CO2 emission regulations did not inhibit the growth of an investment, but they stimulated investments to varying degrees in different provinces. A relatively positive result is that provinces with stronger CO2 emission regulations exhibited a relatively small contribution to investment promotion, while provinces with weaker CO2 reduction policies demonstrated a relatively large contribution to investment growth. We also found that investment was correlated with the growth rate of the gross domestic product (GDP) in the northeastern and western provinces. Finally, we proposed policy implications based on the utilization of policy tools from the perspectives of investment, energy structure, and local protectionism.

Policy implications from revealing consumption-based carbon footprint of major economic sectors in Japan

In Japan, the Great East Earthquake caused numerous casualties and the subsequent suspension of operations at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant continues to have an adverse impact on the national energy supply chain. The structural changes in energy supply have served to reinforce the importance of national emissions accounting in promoting overall CO2 reduction policies. However, traditional approaches for evaluating industrial emissions have been criticized for their production-based perspective, which fails to consider emissions embodied in sectoral indirect consumption. The purpose of this study is therefore to understand the sectoral emission transfer. By applying economic input-output tables, detailed sectoral economic interactions can be usefully identified. It was found that the emissions embodied in final consumption generated largely by households. Besides, although emission intensity of manufacturing sector is extremely high in direct emission, agriculture sector is found to exceed other sectors in indirect emission intensities. From the consumption-side, these findings strongly suggest that a high priority be given to mitigation efforts aimed at reducing residential consumption, whist policy priorities are expected to be located on agriculture-related sectors from production-side. The study hence provides insights into how we can better allocate emissions responsibility and set reduction priorities among major economic sectors.

Assessing the policy impacts on non-ferrous metals industry's CO2 reduction: Evidence from China

Abstract The nonferrous metals industry (NMI) consumes a great amount of energy, and is a typical high CO2 emission sector. The NMI is one of the eight most concerning industries in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report. In this study, we summarized policies that impact Chinese NMI's development and grouped them into three types: energy structure policies, energy efficiency improving policies and production-scale policies. Based on those quantitative policy goals, a bottom-up model has been developed to study the CO2 emissions of five NMI's major sub-sectors from 2010 to 2030. The results showed that if China's central government could stick to the CO2 reduction policy strength of 13th Five-Year Plan (2016–2020), then the copper, lead and zinc industries can reach their emissions peak before 2030. Furthermore, if the Chinese government restricts the production of primary aluminum of 46.2 million tons in 2025, then the CO2 emissions of China's non-ferrous industry could reach the peak in that year, when the CO2 emissions peak is 297 million tons. Having benefited from the effective CO2 reduction policies of NMI, China may reach its ambitious CO2 peaking goals more easily.

The U.S. power sector decarbonization: Investigating technology options with MARKAL nine-region model

The U.S. economy decarbonization over the next 35 years requires a large transformation of the energy system. The main finding of this study is that it is technically feasible to achieve 80% greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction below the 2005 levels by 2050 through deployment of existing or near-commercially available technologies. GHG reductions are primarily achieved through high levels of electricity sector decarbonization, electrification of end uses, and exchange of the remaining end-uses to lower carbon fuels such as natural gas. However, deep decarbonization by 2050 triggers very high marginal CO2 reduction costs, unless significant cost reductions of zero and near-zero carbon technologies occur.The results show that CO2 reduction policies accelerate the deployment of renewables and carbon capture and storage (CCS) only in the scenarios where the decarbonization policies are more stringent than those in the Clean Power Plan (CPP). Electricity generation mixes in the reference scenarios are largely dependent on the price of natural gas, but also show significant sensitivity to cost reductions in CCS. When increased CCS learning rates are incorporated into the model runs, more CCS is optimal in the medium-term and long-term future in the scenarios with CO2 constraints. An 80% reduction scenario also prompts electrification in end-use demand sectors, creating even more dependence on CO2 management in the electricity generation sector.

Sustainable energy and CO2 reduction policy in Thailand: An input–output approach from production- and consumption-based perspectives

Energy shortages and CO2 emissions reductions are critical contemporary challenges for Thailand. A consumption-based analysis provides crucial information that enables policymakers to more comprehensively understand the hidden contributors of energy demand and CO2 in the economy. The other manufacturing, construction and food and beverage sectors were amongst the five largest contributors to energy use and emissions in both 2000 and 2010, based on a consumption perspective. However, these sectors have been neglected by energy conservation and climate change mitigation policies in Thailand because they were the least energy-intensive sectors per government energy reports from 1995 to 2015. The CO2 emissions burden from exports was almost 50% of Thailand's national CO2 inventory in 2000 and 2010. The embodied CO2 emissions results revealed that Thailand could reduce its emissions inventory by 12% and 13% if embodied imports replaced exports in 2000 and 2010, respectively. Furthermore, the leading gross domestic product-generating industries in Thailand are seriously vulnerable to natural gas and crude oil shortages despite some sectors using them in small proportions in their production processes. Energy and emissions policies should better reflect consumption characteristics to increase the potential of energy-saving interventions and CO2 mitigation.