CO2 Reduction Policies Research Articles

CO2 emission reduction policy assessment: Emission scenarios in China

With the rapid economic growth, China became one of the biggest countries for energy consumption and CO2 emission. This paper presents the forecast results of CO2 emissions for several cases and assessment of different policy options by using AIM/end-use model, and analyzed CO2 reduction cost for sectors. From the results, we found CO2 emission will increase with the rapid economic development in China, but it is possible to slow down the CO2 emission growth rate by technology progress though efficient market and by adoption of some policies for CO2 reduction.

Assessment of CO<SUB align=right>2 reduction policies for Switzerland

This report is an effort to document some quantitative results on the possibility of introducing CO2 reduction policies. It concludes that even for an industrialised country with a very efficient energy system that implies high carbon taxes, enough options are available to reduce carbon taxes to acceptable levels and effectively contribute to a sustainable environment. The conclusions of the study are based on analysis done with the model called MARKAL–MACRO. This is a link of MARKAL an engineering bottom–up model together with MACRO, a long–term neo–classical macroeconomic growth model. The model enables us to study general equilibrium issues of energy markets. In addition to the results of the deterministic model that cover cases with pure taxes and a tax–compensation approach, other conclusions are discussed based on stochastic analysis. The study concludes that one of the best short term strategies is to buy greenhouse insurance, starting with no–regrets, to remove distortions of the energy markets and to introduce voluntary measures, as proposed by the WEC Conference. A complement to a no–regrets policy would be to introduce low level and reversible taxes (i.e., the minimum regrets option as estimated by the stochastic programming approach). With this, we could gain time to resolve uncertainty, and to select and proceed with better technical choices, since alternative technologies will become available. In the longer term, if the threats are confirmed, efficient policy will be based on tax–compensation policies and international co–operation. Otherwise, if the climate change threats are not confirmed, the low–level taxes can be cancelled without regretting the loss of premature commitments to costly abatement strategies.

A Green Energy Plan for Denmark

Several political regulation instruments -- such as CO2 taxes -- have been suggested to implement CO2 reduction policies. But normally the cost of implementing CO2 reduction policies is considered to be a threat to both economic growth and employment. But to some extent, strategies can be developed which implement CO2 reduction goals by creating jobs and such strategies could help economic growth. This note presents the main results from a research project, in the Department of Development and Planning at Aalborg University. More detailed information of the full study is given in (Lund 1996: 2) and (Lund 1997). The research project has had the primary purpose of determining the consequences for employment and the need for foreign exchange in the investments in the different types of energy plants in Denmark. From this information it has been possible to develop and calculate the consequences of various energy strategies, which seek to avoid the conflict between environment, employment and economic growth. One example of such a strategy is called the Green Energy Plan. The Green Energy Plan, was published by the General Workers' Union and used as an input to the public debate on the future of energy in Denmark in the spring of 1996 (Lund 1996: 2). The official Danish energy plan Energy 21 (Danish Ministry of Environment and Energy 1996) was adopted soon after the public debate.

Energy technology changes and CO2 emission scenarios in China

With its recent rapid economic growth, China has become one of the foremost countries in terms of energy consumption and CO2 emission. The extent of future CO2 emission in China and how to reduce it are important issues. This paper presents the forecast results of CO2 emission studies for several cases and assesses the various policy options by using the AIM/end-use model and analyzing CO2 reduction costs for various sectors. The results shrued that CO2 emission will increase with the rapid economic development in China, but it is possible to slow down the CO2 emission growth rate by using technological progress, efficient markets, and by adopting policies for CO2 reduction.

Endogenous technical progress induced by CO2 reduction policies: Simulation results for Austria

Almost all model simulations of CO2 reduction policies focus on the effects of changes in the relative price of energy compared to the other factors of production caused by various energy taxation schemes. Typical results of these simulations as reported e.g. from the GREEN model of OECD show depressing effects on real GDP and upward pressures on inflation.

CETA: A Model for Carbon Emissions Trajectory Assessment

We present an economic growth and energy use model incorporating representations of greenhouse gas accumulation, global mean temperature rise, and the damage cost associated with this temperature rise. Under alternative assumptions about the damage cost function, we find optimal time paths of CO2 emissions control and associated optimal carbon taxes. Our work indicates that with plausible assumptions, an optimal carbon tax will rise over time, in contrast to the “hump-shaped” carbon taxes implied by CO2 reduction policies currently being discussed. Our work also suggests that the damage cost function would have to be both high and nonlinear in order to justify the general level of CO2 control and carbon taxes implied by these policies.