CO2 Fertilization Effect Research Articles

Future Hurricanes Will Increase Palm Abundance and Decrease Aboveground Biomass in a Tropical Forest

AbstractHurricanes are expected to intensify throughout the 21st century, yet the impact of frequent major hurricanes on tropical ecosystems remains unknown. To investigate tropical forest damage and recovery under different hurricane regimes, we generate a suite of scenarios based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate projections and increased hurricane recurrence and intensity for the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico. We then use the Ecosystem Demography model to predict changes in carbon stocks, forest structure and composition. Our results indicate that frequent hurricane disturbances in the future would decrease the overall aboveground biomass, decrease the dominance of late‐successional species, but increase the dominance of palm species. Warmer climates with increased CO2 would have little effect on the functional‐type composition but increase the aboveground biomass. However, the predicted climate and CO2 fertilization effects would not compensate for the biomass loss due to more frequent severe‐hurricane disturbances.

Declining tree growth rates despite increasing water-use efficiency under elevated CO2 reveals a possible global overestimation of CO2 fertilization effect

Though rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations (Ca) harm the environment and society, they may also raise photosynthetic rates and enhance intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE). Numerous short-term studies have investigated tree growth under elevated CO2 (eCO2) conditions, but no long-duration study has investigated eCO2 impacts on tree growth and iWUE under natural conditions. Utilizing a new dendrochronological experimental design in a heavily-touristed nature preserve in Southwest China (Jiuzhaigou National Nature Reserve), we compared tree growth (e.g., basal area increment) and iWUE in two biophysically and environmentally similar valleys with contrasting anthropogenic activities. Trees in the control valley with ambient CO2 benefited from increasing Ca, possibly due to the CO2 fertilization effect and optimal environmental conditions. However, trees in the treatment valley with intensive tourism experienced comparatively higher localized eCO2 and growth rate declines. While iWUE increased (1959–2017) in the control (25.3%) and treatment sites (47.8%), declining tree growth rates in the treatment site was likely because comparatively extreme CO2 exposure levels encouraged stomatal closures. As the first long-term study investigating eCO2 impacts on tree growth and iWUE under natural conditions, we demonstrate that increased forest iWUE is unlikely to overcome negative drought stress and rising temperature impacts. Thus, forest potential for mitigating eCO2 and global climate change is likely overestimated, particularly under dry temperate conditions.

Consistent responses of vegetation gas exchange to elevated atmospheric CO2emerge from heuristic and optimization models

Abstract. Elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration is expected to increase leaf CO2 assimilation rates, thus promoting plant growth and increasing leaf area. It also decreases stomatal conductance, allowing water savings, which have been hypothesized to drive large-scale greening, in particular in arid and semiarid climates. However, the increase in leaf area could reduce the benefits of elevated CO2 concentration through soil water depletion. The net effect of elevated CO2 on leaf- and canopy-level gas exchange remains uncertain. To address this question, we compare the outcomes of a heuristic model based on the Partitioning of Equilibrium Transpiration and Assimilation (PETA) hypothesis and three model variants based on stomatal optimization theory. Predicted relative changes in leaf- and canopy-level gas exchange rates are used as a metric of plant responses to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration. Both model approaches predict reductions in leaf-level transpiration rate due to decreased stomatal conductance under elevated CO2, but negligible (PETA) or no (optimization) changes in canopy-level transpiration due to the compensatory effect of increased leaf area. Leaf- and canopy-level CO2 assimilation is predicted to increase, with an amplification of the CO2 fertilization effect at the canopy level due to the enhanced leaf area. The expected increase in vapour pressure deficit (VPD) under warmer conditions is generally predicted to decrease the sensitivity of gas exchange to atmospheric CO2 concentration in both models. The consistent predictions by different models that canopy-level transpiration varies little under elevated CO2 due to combined stomatal conductance reduction and leaf area increase highlight the coordination of physiological and morphological characteristics in vegetation to maximize resource use (here water) under altered climatic conditions.

THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON ASEAN RICE PRODUCTION IN SHORT AND LONG-RUN

There has been a growing concern over the escalating signs of climate change that could adversely affect the production of rice in ASEAN region. This study attempts to assess the impact of climate change on food security measured in terms of rice yield, with the focus being on ASEAN member countries. Panel data are collected on nine ASEAN countries and static panel data equations are estimated. In addition, the dynamic panel ARDL technique is also adopted to investigate the long-term and short-term cointegration between the variables. The findings show mixed results of impact of CO2 on rice yield among majority of ASEAN member countries in short-run which signify the positive CO2 fertilization effect in the region over the adverse impact of temperature increase on rice yield. In long-run, however, the negative effects are projected which might reduce rice yield in this tropical area. Thus, serious collaboration between developing and least-developed countries in the region to address the issues in agriculture and rice production is very crucial to solve food insecurity within the region in the long-term.

Future Land Use/Land Cover Change Has Nontrivial and Potentially Dominant Impact on Global Gross Primary Productivity

AbstractAnthropogenic land use/land cover (LULC) change alters terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP), the largest land‐atmosphere carbon exchanges. Identifying the impacts of LULC changes on future terrestrial GPP has been challenging due to the scarcity of standardized future LULC for ecosystem models. Here, we present eight scenario‐based projections of global spatially explicit LULC at 1‐km resolution over the period 2015–2100 with a Future Land Use Simulation model—consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways. Twenty computational experiments with different LULC patterns, climate forcing, and CO2 concentrations were conducted to quantify their contributions to future GPP dynamics. Results show that the global terrestrial GPP would decline in the 21st century in most LULC scenarios due to urbanization, agricultural expansion, and deforestation. Moreover, the contribution of LULC changes to global GPP dynamics ranges from 3.43% to 10.78% when CO2 fertilization effect (CFE) is not modeled during 2000–2100 (7%–9% of the terrestrial area is dominated by LULC change). However, this value may range from 10.92% to 16.16% during 2000–2050 and 1.41%–14.57% during 2050–2100. The contribution of LULC even reached 56.08% during 2050–2100 in Southeast Asia due to deforestation. Despite the relatively important role of LULC to GPP dynamics, it becomes trivial globally when incorporating CFE into the model (i.e., LULC accounts for 1.24%–2.51% during 2000–2100). Our findings emphasize the strategic role of CFE in enhancing global GPP and highlight the quantitatively nontrivial role of LULC at the regional scale.

Estimates of soil nutrient limitation on the CO2 fertilization effect for tropical vegetation.

The CO2 fertilization effect in tropical forests is a key factor for the global land carbon sink. We show that the normalized CO2 effect on tropical vegetation carbon was c. 70% lower in seedling CO2 experiments without nutrient fertilizers and c. 50% and 70% lower in models that consider nitrogen and phosphorus cycles, based on two model ensembles. The inadequate representation or lack of nutrient cycles in Earth System models likely leads to overestimating future tropical carbon gains.

An Investigation of the Effective Climate Sensitivity in GFDL’s New Climate Models CM4.0 and SPEAR

Abstract Despite a relatively low climate sensitivity indicated by atmospheric-only simulations with uniform sea surface temperature (SST) warming, GFDL’s new climate model CM4.0 participating in CMIP6 and the seasonal-to-decadal prediction system SPEAR, both of which use an identical atmospheric model AM4.0, produce relatively high effective climate sensitivity (EffCS). The substantial increase in CM4.0’s EffCS is found to be caused by additional positive forcing associated with the CO2 fertilization effect on vegetation, enhanced positive feedback due to stronger reduction in Southern Hemisphere (SH) sea ice concentration (SIC), and clouds whose feedback depends on SST warming patterns. Compared to a SPEAR run using a static vegetation model (SPEAR-SV), CM4.0 produces roughly 30% larger EffCS, among which roughly 1/3 of the increase is due to dynamical vegetation with the rest due primarily to changes in SIC. Although cloud feedback does not explain the key feedback differences among CM4.0, SPEAR, and SPEAR-SV, it is the primary cause of the models’ increase (less negative) in TOA net feedback during the later period of their quadrupling CO2 simulations due to changes in their SST warming patterns. Moreover, CM4.0’s SST warming pattern and its effects on cloud feedback appear to be the leading cause of CM4.0’s EffCS increase compared to the earlier generation GFDL model ESM2M, which produces one of the lowest EffCS values among CMIP5 models. In comparison, CM4.0’s enhanced reduction in SH SICs plays a slightly less important role in its increase in EffCS compared to ESM2M.

The CO2 fertilization effect on leaf photosynthesis of maize (Zea mays L.) depends on growth temperatures with changes in leaf anatomy and soluble sugars

Understanding the potential mechanisms and processes of leaf photosynthesis in response to elevated CO2 concentration ([CO2]) and temperature is critical for estimating the impacts of climatic change on the growth and yield in crops such as maize (Zea mays L.), which is a widely cultivated C4 crop all over the world. We examined the combined effect of elevated [CO2] and temperature on plant growth, leaf photosynthesis, stomatal traits, and biochemical compositions of maize with six environmental growth chambers controlling two CO2 levels (400 and 800 μmol mol−1) and three temperature regimes (25/19°C, 31/25°C, and 37/31°C). We found that leaf photosynthesis was significantly enhanced by increasing growth temperature from 25/19°C to 31/25°C independent of [CO2]. However, leaf photosynthesis drastically declined when the growth temperature was continually increased to 37/31°C at both ambient CO2 concentration (400 μmol mol−1, a[CO2]) and elevated CO2 concentration (800 μmol mol−1, e[CO2]). Meanwhile, we also found strong CO2 fertilization effect on maize plants grown at the highest temperature (37/31°C), as evidenced by the higher leaf photosynthesis at e[CO2] than that at a[CO2], although leaf photosynthesis was similar between a[CO2] and e[CO2] under the other two temperature regimes of 25/19°C and 31/25°C. Furthermore, we also found that e[CO2] resulted in an increase in leaf soluble sugar, which was positively related with leaf photosynthesis under the high temperature regime of 37/31°C (R2 = 0.77). In addition, our results showed that e[CO2] substantially decreased leaf transpiration rates of maize plants, which might be partially attributed to the reduced stomatal openness as demonstrated by the declined stomatal width and stomatal area. These results suggest that the CO2 fertilization effect on plant growth and leaf photosynthesis of maize depends on growth temperatures through changing stomatal traits, leaf anatomy, and soluble sugar contents.

Expanding vegetated areas by human activities and strengthening vegetation growth concurrently explain the greening of Seoul

Many studies have reported that urbanization leads to a decrease in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) due to the expansion of impervious cover. Some studies, however, have reported positive NDVI trends in urban areas due to warming and CO2 fertilization effects, as well as the creation of green space. Thus, we examined spatial and temporal variations of the growing season maximum NDVI in a megacity, Seoul, which has rapidly urbanized over the past decades, by analyzing a 32-year time series (1987 – 2018) of Landsat satellite images in Google Earth Engine. Continuous change detection and classification and random forest algorithms were integrated to classify Seoul land cover types annually. We found an overall increasing NDVI trend at the city scale (0.002 yr−1). Significant NDVI trends were found for approximately 46 % of Seoul, with greening and browning trends accounting for 39 % and 7 %, respectively. Greening pixels appeared mainly on impervious (23 % with a significant NDVI trend), deciduous (10 %), and evergreen (3 %) land cover as of 2018. Stable impervious, deciduous, and evergreen land cover pixels showed a greening trend over the 32 years (0.002 yr−1), which stemmed from the planting of trees in areas with impervious cover, such as streets and residential areas, and vegetation growth in forest areas. Disturbed area pixels showed fluctuating NDVI values, but there were more greening pixels (20 %) than browning pixels (5 %). Our findings indicate that a detailed knowledge of land use and land cover changes is required to understand NDVI trends in urban areas.

Projected changes of ecosystem productivity and their responses to extreme heat events in northern asia

Change of ecosystem productivity and its response to climate extremes in the context of global warming are of great interest and particular concern for ecosystem management and adaptation. Using the simulations with and without the CO2 fertilization effect from the Yale Interactive Biosphere (YIBs) model driven by seven CMIP5 climate models, this article investigates the future change in the gross primary productivity (GPP) of the Northern Asian ecosystem as well as the impacts from extreme heat events under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. The results show an overall increase of GPP in Northern Asia during the growing season (May-September) under both scenarios, in which the CO2 fertilization effect plays a dominant role. The increases in GPP under RCP8.5 are larger than that under RCP2.6, and the greatest projected increases occur in western Siberia and Northeast China. The extreme heat events are also projected to increase generally and their influences on the Northern Asian ecosystem GPP exhibit spatiotemporal heterogeneity. Under the RCP2.6 scenario, the positive and adverse effects from the extreme heat events coexist in Northern Asia during the middle of the 21st century. During the end of the 21st century, the areas dominated by positive effects are expected to expand particularly in Northeast China and central-western Siberia. For the RCP8.5 scenario, the facilitation effects of the extreme heat events are widely distributed in Northern Asia during the middle of the 21st century, which tends to decline in both intensity and extent during the end of the 21st century. The case is similar after the CO2 fertilization effect is excluded.

Modelling climate change impacts on wet and dry season rice in Cambodia

AbstractIrregular rainfall, rising temperatures and changing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are projected to reduce crop yields and threaten food security across the tropical monsoon sub‐region. However, the anticipated extent of impact on crop yields and crop water productivity (CWP) is not yet thoroughly understood. The impacts of climate change on rice yields and CWP are assessed over the Northern Tonle Sap Basin in Cambodia by applying the AquaCrop model into the mid‐ (2041–2070) to long‐future (2071–2099) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (4.5 and 8.5). Short (95 days), medium (125 days) and long (155 days) cycle varieties are tested during the wet and dry seasons. An assessment of different sowing dates and irrigation strategies (fixed and net irrigation during the dry season) elucidated the variation in response to changing environmental conditions. Higher yields (+15% by 2041–2070 and +30% by 2071–2099) and CWP values (+42% by 2071–2099) are expected if using short‐cycle varieties, in particular when sown in July. Dry season rice yields are also projected to increase (+28% by 2071–2099), especially under a higher greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP 8.5) compared to a medium emission scenario (RCP 4.5) as a result of the CO2 fertilization effect. Depending on the climatic scenario, rice variety, irrigation scheme, and sowing date, increasing heat and drought‐stress conditions are likely to have different impacts on rice yields and CWP over time. Overall, this study highlights the benefits of adjusting crop calendars to identify the most suitable irrigation schedules and rice varieties to effectively adapt to projected future climate.

Enhanced leaf turnover and nitrogen recycling sustain CO2 fertilization effect on tree-ring growth.

Whether increased photosynthates under elevated atmospheric CO2 could translate into sustained biomass accumulation in forest trees remains uncertain. Here we demonstrate how tree radial growth is closely linked to litterfall dynamics, which enhances nitrogen recycling to support a sustained effect of CO2 fertilization on tree-ring growth. Our ten-year observations in two alpine treeline forests indicated that annual (or seasonal) stem radial increments generally had a positive relationship with the previous year's (or season's) litterfall and its associated nitrogen return and resorption. Annual tree-ring width, annual litterfall and annual nitrogen return and resorption all showed an increasing trend during 2007-2017, and most of the variations were explained by elevated atmospheric CO2 rather than climate change. Similar patterns were found in the longer time series of tree-ring width index from 1986-2017. The regional representativeness of our observed patterns was confirmed by the literature data of six other tree species at 11 treeline sites over the Tibetan Plateau. Enhanced nitrogen recycling through increased litterfall under elevated atmospheric CO2 supports a general increasing trend of tree-ring growth in recent decades, especially in cold and nitrogen-poor environments.

Predicting resilience through the lens of competing adjustments to vegetation function

There is a pressing need to better understand ecosystem resilience to droughts and heatwaves. Eco-evolutionary optimization approaches have been proposed as means to build this understanding in land surface models and improve their predictive capability, but competing approaches are yet to be tested together. Here, we coupled approaches that optimize canopy gas exchange and leaf nitrogen investment, respectively, extending both approaches to account for hydraulic impairment. We assessed model predictions using observations from a native Eucalyptus woodland that experienced repeated droughts and heatwaves between 2013 and 2020, whilst exposed to an elevated [CO2 ] treatment. Our combined approaches improved predictions of transpiration and enhanced the simulated magnitude of the CO2 fertilization effect on gross primary productivity. The competing approaches also worked consistently along axes of change in soil moisture, leaf area, and [CO2 ]. Despite predictions of a significant percentage loss of hydraulic conductivity due to embolism (PLC) in 2013, 2014, 2016, and 2017 (99th percentile PLC > 45%), simulated hydraulic legacy effects were small and short-lived (2 months). Our analysis suggests that leaf shedding and/or suppressed foliage growth formed a strategy to mitigate drought risk. Accounting for foliage responses to water availability has the potential to improve model predictions of ecosystem resilience.

Increased Global Vegetation Productivity Despite Rising Atmospheric Dryness Over the Last Two Decades

AbstractRising atmospheric dryness [vapor pressure deficit (VPD)] can limit photosynthesis and thus reduce vegetation productivity. Meanwhile, plants can benefit from global warming and the fertilization effect of carbon dioxide (CO2). There are growing interests to study climate change impacts on terrestrial vegetation. However, global vegetation productivity responses to recent climate and CO2 trends remain to be fully understood. Here, we provide a comprehensive evaluation of the relative impacts of VPD, temperature, and atmospheric CO2 concentration on global vegetation productivity over the last two decades using a robust ensemble of solar‐induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) and gross primary productivity (GPP) data. We document a significant increase in global vegetation productivity with rising VPD, temperature, and atmospheric CO2 concentration over this period. For global SIF (or GPP), the decrease due to rising VPD was comparable to the increase due to warming but far less than the increase due to elevated CO2 concentration. We found that rising VPD counteracted only a small proportion (approximately 8.1%–15.0%) of the warming and CO2‐induced increase in global SIF (or GPP). Despite the sharp rise in atmospheric dryness imposing a negative impact on plants, the warming and CO2 fertilization effects contributed to a persistent and widespread increase in vegetation productivity over the majority (approximately 66.5%–72.2%) of the globally vegetated areas. Overall, our findings provide a quantitative and comprehensive attribution of rising atmospheric dryness on global vegetation productivity under concurrent climate warming and CO2 increasing.

Beneficial effect of climate change on wheat yield and water footprints in the Middle-Manyame sub-catchment, Zimbabwe

Abstract Climate change is a major concern in wheat agroecosystems as it can affect productivity and crop water use. This study used the AquaCrop model to evaluate climate change impacts on the wheat yield, crop water use and water footprint of wheat production in the Middle-Manyame sub-catchment of Zimbabwe. Climate scenarios were based on simulations from the NCC-NorESM1-M, CCCma-CanESM2 and MOHC-HadGEM2-ES General Climate Models downscaled using three Regional Climate Models (RCA4, RegCM4 and CRCM5) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The results showed that, compared to the baseline climate (1980–2010), yield may increase by 22.60, 29.47 27.80, and 53.85% for the RCP4.5 2040 s, RCP4.5 2080 s, RCP8.5 2040 s and RCP8.5 2080 s scenarios, respectively. Crop water use may decrease by 1.68, 1.25, 3.7 and 6.47%, respectively, under the four scenarios, respectively. Consequently, the blue water footprint may decrease by 19, 23, 24 and 38%, respectively, under the four scenarios. Sensitivity analysis attributed the increase in yields and the decrease in crop water use to the CO2 fertilization effect, which had a dominant effect over high-temperature effects. The results suggest that future wheat yields could be enhanced while crop water use is reduced because of climate change. However, the realization of these benefits requires farmers to adapt to climate change by adopting recommended agronomic practices and farm input rates that are consistent with those used in the modelling approach of this study.

Mitochondrial and peroxisomal NAD+ uptake are important for improved photosynthesis and seed yield under elevated CO2 concentrations.

As sessile organisms, plants must adapt their physiology and developmental processes to cope with challenging environmental circumstances, such as the ongoing elevation in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2 ) levels. Nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NAD+ ) is a cornerstone of plant metabolism and plays an essential role in redox homeostasis. Given that plants impaired in NAD metabolism and transport often display growth defects, low seed production and disturbed stomatal development/movement, we hypothesized that subcellular NAD distribution could be a candidate for plants to exploit the effects of CO2 fertilization. We report that an efficient subcellular NAD+ distribution is required for the fecundity-promoting effects of elevated CO2 levels. Plants with reduced expression of either mitochondrial (NDT1 or NDT2) or peroxisomal (PXN) NAD+ transporter genes grown under elevated CO2 exhibited reduced total leaf area compared with the wild-type while PXN mutants also displayed reduced leaf number. NDT2 and PXN lines grown under elevated CO2 conditions displayed reduced rosette dry weight and lower photosynthetic rates coupled with reduced stomatal conductance. Interestingly, high CO2 doubled seed production and seed weight in the wild-type, whereas the mutants were less responsive to increases in CO2 levels during reproduction, producing far fewer seeds than the wild-type under both CO2 conditions. These data highlight the importance of mitochondrial and peroxisomal NAD+ uptake mediated by distinct NAD transporter proteins to modulate photosynthesis and seed production under high CO2 levels.

CO2 fertilization of crops offsets yield losses due to future surface ozone damage and climate change

Tropospheric ozone (O3) is harmful to plant productivity and negatively impacts crop yields. O3 concentrations are projected to decrease globally in the optimistic Representative Concentration Pathway of 2.6 W m–2 (RCP2.6) but increase globally following the high-emission scenario under the RCP8.5, with substantial implications for global food security. The damaging effect of O3 on future crop yield is affected by CO2 fertilization and climate change, and their interactions for RCP scenarios have yet to be quantified. In this study, we used the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator modified to include crops (JULES-crop) to quantify the impacts, and relative importance of present-day and future O3, CO2 concentration and meteorology on crop production at the regional scale until 2100 following RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. We focus on eight major crop-producing regions that cover the production of wheat, soybean, maize, and rice. Our results show that CO2 alone has the largest effect on regional yields, followed by climate and O3. However, the CO2 fertilization effect is offset by the negative impact of tropospheric O3 in regions with high O3 concentrations, such as South Asia and China. Simulated crop yields in 2050 were compared with Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) statistics to investigate the differences between a socioeconomic and a biophysical process-based approach. Results showed that FAO estimates are closer to our JULES-crop RCP8.5 scenario. This study demonstrates that air pollution could be the biggest threat to future food production and highlights an urgent policy need to mitigate the threat of climate change and O3 pollution on food security.

Interannual variability in summer climate change controls GPP long-term changes

Global environmental change is rapidly altering the dynamics of terrestrial vegetation, with implications for the functioning of the Earth system and the provision of ecosystem services. How vegetation responds to a changing environment is an important scientific issue, but there is a lack of coverage of the relative contributions that long-term variation and interannual variability in vegetation across seasons play in ecosystem response to global change. Here, we used four terrestrial ecosystem models provided by MsTMIP to examine four key environmental drivers of gross primary productivity (GPP) change over the period 1901–2010. Our findings showed that (1) for all seasons, interannual variability in climate change are the main environmental factor controlling seasonal GPP variability. (2) Summer is the key season controlling the variation of annual GPP, and its long-term trend and interannual variability can explain 61.50% of the variation of grassland GPP in China. (3) Interannual variability in summer climate change exceeded the CO2 fertilization effect and nitrogen deposition as the controlling component (more than 40%) of long-term variation in Chinese grassland GPP. These studies highlight the important role of interannual variability in climate in reshaping the seasonality of vegetation growth, and will provide a precursor to future environmental drivers that can be precisely attributed to global vegetation change.

Response of terrestrial net primary production to climate change associated with the quadrupling CO2 forcing in CMIP6 models

AbstractTerrestrial net primary production (NPP) has shown remarkable changes in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 and associated climate change. Many studies have investigated and emphasized the CO2 fertilization effects, while the climatic effects remain uncertain in magnitude and spatial pattern. This study investigates these climatic effects and underlying causes by using outputs of the simulation abruptly quadrupled CO2 from 23 CMIP6 models. We find that tropical terrestrial NPP decreases but extratropical terrestrial NPP increases in response to the CO2‐induced climate change. The decreased tropical terrestrial NPP is significantly correlated with the warmer and drier climate anomalies, while the increased extratropical terrestrial NPP is significantly correlated with the warmer and wetter climate anomalies. These results emphasize the climatic effects on terrestrial NPP and reveal the differences among different terrestrial ecosystems, which is favorable for a better understanding of the terrestrial carbon cycle and its coupling with climate.

A watershed-scale assessment of climate change impacts on crop yields in Atlantic Canada

Agriculture in Atlantic Canada (AC) is dominated by a rain-fed potato production system, with potatoes typically rotating with cereal crops such as barley and oats. Under rain-fed conditions, crop yields are sensitive to weather and its variations and are thus affected by climate change. Previous research regarding climate change impacts on crop yields in AC has been limited to a regional-scale assessment, mostly focusing on climate without considering real-world field conditions (e.g., soil and topography). In this study, an enhanced Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to estimate crop yields at the watershed scale under climate change conditions projected for the period of 2020–2099 using global climate models with three different greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios from the Representative Concentration Pathways (i.e., RCP2.6, 4.5, and 8.5). Results suggest that climate change will negatively impact potato and barley yields under all three RCP scenarios. In particular, under the RCP8.5 scenario, there will be significant reductions (13–23%) in crop yields between 2060 and 2099. The leading cause of crop yield reductions is attributed to the soil water stress resulting from increased temperature and evapotranspiration during the growing season due to climate change. Elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations could potentially increase crop yields due to the CO2 fertilization effect. However, it is not enough to offset the negative impacts of soil water stress. Our results suggest that on top of controlling GHG emissions to below the RCP4.5 level, it is critical to develop and adapt crop, soil, and water management practices such as new crop-rotation systems, early planting dates, and supplemental irrigation to maintain future crop yields in AC.