Cointegration Equation Research Articles

A research study on market integration of cotton (Gossypium spp.) prices in various markets of Haryana

The study examined the market integration of cotton (Gossypium spp.) prices across various markets in Haryana. Monthly time series data on cotton prices were collected from 2005–06 to 2021–22 from published sources such as the Agricultural Produce Market Committees (APMC) and the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI). To analyse market integration among the selected cotton markets, various techniques were employed, including the Granger Causality test, correlation analysis, the Johansen co-integration test, and the Augmented-Dickey Fuller (ADF) test. The correlation analysis revealed a high degree of correlation among the markets, with correlation coefficients ranging from 0.97–0.99. The ADF test indicated that the level values were less than the critical value, suggesting the presence of a unit root and non-stationarity. However, at the first difference, the ADF values were greater than the critical value, indicating that the prices were stationary and no unit root was present. The Johansen co-integration analysis showed that there were no co-integrating equations at the 5% significance level based on the Maximum Eigen Statistic, while at least four co-integrating equations were identified at the 5% significance level based on the Trace statistic. Lastly, the Granger Causality test was conducted to determine the direction of causation between the price series of the selected markets in Haryana, identifying the Dabwali market as the leading cotton market.

PENGARUH KONSUMSI, HARGA ECERAN DAN GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) PER KAPITA TERHADAP IMPOR GULA PASIR DI INDONESIA

This research aims to determine the influence of consumption, retail prices and GDP per capita on sugar imports in Indonesia. The data used in this research is secondary data in the form of a time series for 1990-2022 obtained from the world bank and BPS (Central Statistics Agency). The data analysis method uses the Error Correction Model (ECM) approach, where the conditions for using this model are that all variables must be stationary first differences, have at least one cointegration equation and have a negative ECT (Error Correction Term) value so that the model is valid and can be used. The results show that in the short term consumption is not significant on sugar imports in Indonesia, while in the long term consumption has a negative and significant effect on sugar imports in Indonesia. The retail price variable has no effect on sugar imports in Indonesia in the short term, and in the long term retail prices have a positive and significant effect on sugar imports in Indonesia. The GDP Per Capita variable, both in the short and long term, has no effect on sugar imports in Indonesia.

CASH CRUNCH AND THE NIGERIAN ECONOMY

This study examined cash crunch and the Nigerian economy. To achieve this objective, relevant data used spanning from 1981-2022 were obtained for the review period from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin and World Bank Indicators. Descriptive statistics, Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) Unit root test, Granger causality and Ordinary Least Square (OLS) regression were the analytical tools for this study. Real Gross Domestic Product growth rate (RGDPgr) was used as the dependent variable, while Cash crunch proxy with prime lending rate (CC), Domestic credit by Banks to private sector (DCBPS), Loan to deposit ratio (LDR), Inflation Rate (INFR), Money supply growth rate (MSgr) as the independent variables. Based on the analysis, there exist positive relationship between RGDPgr, CC, DCBS, LDR, and M2gr and a negative relationship existed RGDPgr and INFR. The F-statistic of the regression output stood at 6.208930, this implies that the regression plane is statistically significant. It was also, revealed that cash crunch had negative and significant effect on the Nigerian economy C = -11.97721, P < 0.05 (0.0265 < 0.05), while the overall Prob.(F-Statistic) 0.000302 is less than the 0.05 level of significance implies that there is a statistical significant relationship between the variables. R2= 0.463044 implies that about 46.30% of the total variation in the model specified was accounted for by the independent variables. LDR is platykurtic, RGDPgr, CC, DCBPS, INFR and M2gr are leptokurtic, according to the descriptive analysis, which also showed that all the variables were normally distributed; All the variables were stationary and significant at their respective values. There is the existence of a long-run relationship between the variables indicated by Johansen co-integration equation. Therefore, cash crunch has negative effect on investment in an economy. In conclusion, cash crunch had negative and significant impact on the expansion of Nigerian economy for the period studied. The study recommended that the government through CBN should modified most of its tools and incorporate some of the macro prudential variables in its dealings so as to have robust grips of the economy with the intention of suppressing the adverse effect of inflationary pressure in the economy.
 Keywords: Cash Crunch, Domestic Credit By Banks To Private Sector, Inflation, Money Supply And Nigerian Economy.

THE IMPACT OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND INFLATION ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TUKEY

Introduction: The impact of unemployment and inflation on economic growth in Turkey is considered as an important issue in the economic literature on Turkey. Unemployment and inflation are factors that directly affect economic stability and the welfare of citizens. In this context, it is critical to understand and interpret the effects of unemployment and inflation rates on economic growth and to formulate and implement economic policies in line with the realities. Analyzing Turkey's unemployment and inflation dynamics is a very important issue in this sense. In addition, this concept and data play an important role in providing guidance for policymakers in evaluating economic performance and implementing new economic policies. When today's Turkish economy is evaluated in general terms, it reveals the reality of Turkey, which has suffered serious losses in the last five years, a decrease in purchasing power, an increase in the prices of goods and services and an inflation rate of 150%. Objective: To investigate and determine the effects of unemployment and inflation on economic performance in Turkey within a specified period of time. To establish the relationship between unemployment and inflation on Real Gross Domestic Product in Turkey. Design, Methodology and Approach: The Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) technique was adopted with various diagnostic tests to determine how appropriate the data is for the analysis. The study uses only OLS and Diagnostics to perform the analysis and covers only the period from 1990 to 2021. Results: The result of the diagnostic test shows that the data for the analysis is stationary at level and there are 2 cointegration equations indicating that there is a long-run relationship between GDP, Unemployment and inflation. Conclusion: Unemployment and inflation are positively related to economic growth.

Impact of Stock Returns on Trading Volume in Indian Stocks: A Panel ARDL Approach

The purpose of this paper was to analyse the impact of stock returns on trading volume for the companies listed on BSE in India. This article attempted to analyse that whether there had been a significant impact of returns on the trading volume in the short-run and long-run. This study included a sample of 30 companies listed Sensex. To conduct this analysis, a two-stage methodology was employed. In the first stage, a panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach was used to investigate the impact of stock returns on trading volume. In the second stage, the focus was on checking the cross-section short-run relationship in the sample by extending the ARDL estimation. The results showed that the short-run co-integration equation, all the variables have shown significant relationship. The returns have shown significant positive impact on trading volume in short-run whereas significant negative impact in the long-run. The lagged trading volume and stock returns have also shown significant positive impact on current trading volume. These findings have significant implications for investors, equity analysts and portfolio management firms for stock selection and trading patterns.

Remittances and Financial Deepening in Nepal

In the case of remarkable remittance inflows, the impact of remittances on financial development in Nepal has not been adequately studied. Therefore, this paper investigates the effects of remittances on financial development, using Nepal as a case study for the period from 1975 to 2021. The study examines the impact of remittances on the broad money supply. Alongside remittances as the key explanatory variable, other control explanatory variables such as gross capital formation, total trade, real gross domestic product, the national consumer price index, and foreign aid were considered. Unit root analysis revealed that all variables were integrated at order one. Consequently, a cointegration test was conducted, indicating the presence of at least one cointegration equation. Subsequently, an ordinary least squares regression was performed using the first difference data. The results were subjected to various econometric diagnostic tests, including assessment for autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity, multicollinearity, normality, as well as the Durbin–Watson test, t-tests for coefficients, and the F-test. Both the coefficient of determination and the adjusted coefficient of determination confirmed that the models were well-fitted. The outcomes of the model suggest that remittances have a positive impact on the enhancement of the broad money supply. Based on these findings, the study recommends implementing policies aimed at boosting remittance inflows into the country to further financial development in Nepal, specifically promoting financialdeepening.

VAR and VECM models were used to investigate the factors that influence of Indian securities market performance, including the period of Covid 19's financial crises

Using a dummy variable, we evaluate commodities in addition to macroeconomic considerations of the Indian securities market from 2010 to 2021, which includes the era of the Covid 19 crises. We used the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) (Sensex) for securities market performance and developed a Vector Auto regressive models that combines the short- and long-run model of economics. On stock price indexes, we discovered that the Indian securities market reflects both macroeconomic indicators and prices of commodity. Growth in the economy, inflation, interest, rates, currency rates, crude oil prices, and gold prices are all factors to consider were all used in this study to see how they affected BSE (Sensex) prices during the Covid 19 crises. In their first difference, all series were judged to be stationary. We discovered that shocks to all eight factors had both positive and negative effects on BSE (Sensex) prices in the short and long term, including Covid 19 crises. Each securities market index’s most significant impulse is its own shock, decreasing from short to long-term. We also used the Joint Co-Integration Test to detect and confirm the lack of a long-term equilibrium link (cointegration) between all eight variables, resulting in four cointegration equations with an estimated error correction term at the 0.05 level (speed of adjustment towards equilibrium) of 0.007362. Vector Error Correction Mode (VECM), on the other hand, suggests that the BSE (Sensex) has a significant value with its lagged values of.007362 and 0.517952. We created Vector Auto regressive (VAR) models for the BSE (Sensex) using eight independent variables, including Dummy variables, but their statistics were not significant, despite the fact that the lagged value of crude oil, gold prices, the rupee, and the BSE (Sensex) lagged value were all significant. We proceed to estimate VECM. We proved the short and long-term effects of lagged BSE(Sensex) prices, crude oil prices, gold prices, and the currency on the BSE (SENSEX) using several robustness tests. Dummy factors have also been included to see how the Covid 19 crisis affected the BSE (Sensex) prices. We discovered that crude oil prices followed value, gold prices lagged value, and rupees based on the dollar had a significant impact on BSE(Sensex) pricing over the study period, including the Covid 19 crises from March 2020 to June 2021.

Innovations effect on CO2 emissions: asymmetric panel data approach.

The objective of this study is to uncover the nature and strength of the effect that innovations have on CO2 emissions. The main motivation of this research is to offer reliable and credible findings by eliminating some methodical and conceptual shortcomings of the existing papers. The scope of the analysis is examining the innovations-CO2 emissions relationship in a sample of 43 countries in the period from 1991 to 2018. The research is based on the application of hidden panel cointegration theory and the concept of a partially asymmetric cointegration equation. The main findings of the study demonstrate that when innovations grow by 1%, the pattern of their change leads to an increase in CO2 emissions by an average of 0.006%. At the same time, when innovations decline by 1%, their change leads to a reduction in CO2 emissions by an average of 0.001%. Strictly speaking, in the phase of innovations growth, they have environmentally hostile average influence, while in the phase of innovations reduction, their impact is on average environmentally friendly. The average effect of innovations is very asymmetric, because negative environmental impact is about six times stronger than the positive one. Analysis by countries demonstrates that innovations influence varies significantly from country to country. The impact is environmentally friendly in only 32.6% of countries, regardless of whether innovations increase or decrease. In the remaining cases, the influence on the environment is hostile either when innovations grow, when they decline, or in both situations. The main conclusion of this study is that nature of the impact of innovations on CO2 emissions is quite unfavorable, which points to the need for much greater support for green innovations.

Environmental taxes and environmental quality in Canada.

This paper aims to capture the effect of environmentally related taxes on environmental quality in Canada while controlling economic growth, financial development, and energy consumption over the period of 1990Q1 to 2020Q4. The present study employs novel econometric approaches, namely, the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (N-ARDL) test and the gradual shift causality (GS-C) test. The outcomes of the study reveal that (i) there is long-run cointegration equation between environmental taxes (E-TAX), carbon dioxide emissions (CO2E), economic growth (ECG), financial development (FD), and primary energy consumption (PREC); (ii) E-TAX causes to decrease in environmental degradation in Canada; (iii) PREC and ECG increase (and cause) environmental degradation in Canada; and (iv) financial development also positively affect the environmental sustainability. This effort may also be of great importance for policymakers and decision-makers to better understand the factors of environmental degradation for developing effective tax policies that will alleviate human impacts and contribute to reducing environmental degradation.

Price transmission behaviour of major seed spices in Rajasthan

The present study was based on secondary price information. The study period from January, 2011 to December 2021 was chosen to analyse the price behaviour of major seed spice markets in Rajasthan. The data was analysed using the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test and Vector Error Correction Model to accomplish the objectives of the study. ADF test results showed that price data for coriander, cumin, fenugreek, and fennel were non-stationary at the level and stationary at the first difference level. Values of trace and maximum Eigen of Johansen multiple co-integration tests revealed three co-integration equations in cumin and coriander crops, but only one co-integration equation in fennel prices. Prices of coriander, cumin, and fennel in selected KUMS (Krishi Upaj Mandi Samiti) were primarily influenced by the one-month and two-month lag prices of respective market in the long run. The prices of coriander, cumin and fennel demonstrated one-way co-integration in KUMS, Merta City→KUMS, Jodhpur and Ramganj Mandi→Baran while combination of Baran↔Kota, Ramganj Mandi↔Kota and Merta City↔Niwai showed bi-directional co-integration. Fenugreek prices in selected KUMS did not move in tandem over a long period of time. We find that the prices of coriander, cumin and fennel in Rajasthan's selected markets moved in lockstep over time and were influenced by one month or two months lag price of other respective markets.

An Estimation of the Mexican Peso´s Overvaluation for 2023

We estimate the overvaluation of the Mexican peso for the second quarter and June 2023. The equilibrium real exchange rate is approximated by reestimating a cointegration equation where the variable of interest depends on Mexico's GDP, the US Industrial Production Index, the sum of private consumption, the government consumption and exports of Mexico, and US private fixed investment. We use these variables to approximate the relative supply and demand of the two countries. Under certain assumptions, we estimate that the Mexican peso is overvalued by 13.7% and 15.3% in the second quarter and in June 2023, respectively, with information available as of mid-July of the same year. We provide an estimate of the nominal exchange rate compatible with the elimination of the exchange rate misalignment, if this variable were the only one that adjusts.

Commercial bank credits and industrial development in Nigeria

The aim of this study is to determine how credit from commercial banks affects Industrial Growth in Nigeria. The study spans the years 1983 through 2020. For this reason, Commercial Bank Credits was divided into Commercial Banks Credit to the Manufacturing Sector (CBMF), Commercial Banks Credit to the Mining Sector (CBMN), and Commercial Banks Credit to the Real Estate and Construction Sector (CBRC), and their various effects on Industrial Development (Industrial Gross domestic product - IGDP) were taken into account. It was discovered that all the variables attained stationarity at the first and second difference and then freed themselves from the unit root tangle. The Johansen co-integration test results demonstrated that there is no co-integration equation between the variables listed in the model. The Granger Causality test, which was conducted, showed that there was only one causal relationship between Commercial Banks' contribution to the mining sector (CBMN) and Industrial Development (IGDP). According to the regression analysis's findings, there is a positive and significant relationship between commercial banks' lending to the manufacturing sector (CBMF) and industrial development (IGDP), as well as a negative and significant relationship between commercial banks' lending to the real estate and construction sector (CBRC) and industrial development. This suggests that there is a significant connection between Industrial Development and the credit offered by commercial banks. This research on the effect of Commercial Bank Credits on Industrial Development studied only the Nigerian case. So, the research recommends that this study be extended to other Sub Saharan African Countries. In order to enhance industrial growth and development in the long run, it is recommended that, the commercial banks should grant medium and long term loans to the major players in the industrial sector and avoid under-lending or over-lending. There is disagreement regarding whether there is a long-term or short-term relationship between commercial bank credits and industrial development, as well as the direction of causality. The majority of researchers on this subject did not examine the nature and direction of the relationship between Commercial Bank Credits and Industrial Development in Nigeria using the Cointegration Test and Granger Causality Test. This study closes the knowledge gap.

Anaysis of Interest Rate Spread, Financial Development and Foreign Capital Inflow Nexus in Nigeria

ABSTRACT: The world has gone through various economic crises in the past century, and their effects have had varying implications on the economies of countries all over the world. In a bid to help stabilise economies all over the world, various measures have been put in place. Some of these measures include regulations and policies by the Bretton Woods institutions (World Bank and International Monetary Fund) and their agencies. The idea behind these measures is to ensure sustainable growth and development among member states and other countries of the world. Some of these policies include the privatization and liberalization policies of the Bretton Woods institutions as well as other policies bordering on such economic and social benefits for people all over the world. The Nigerian economy in our contemporary time can be described as passing through a rather 'volatile' phase with respect to interest rate, financial development and foreign capital inflow. Thus, this study investigated the impact of interest rate spread and financial development on foreign capital inflow in Nigeria. Several studies have been carried out using different methodologies, such as; co-integration equation, multivariate vector auto regressive (VAR) model and vector error correction technique. Each methodology used was in line with the objective of the research in question. However, to achieve its objective, this paper adopted the Classical Linear Regression Model. The results of the study showed that financial development has a positive impact on foreign capital inflow, while interest rate spread on the other hand, was also found to have a positive impact on foreign capital inflow. Other control variables such as market capitalization and treasury bills rate were also found to positively affect foreign capital inflow, while the all share index had a negative impact on foreign capital inflow. Some economists have opined that the Nigerian economy is currently going through a phase of recession. In order for large scale investments to be made within the country, there is a need for foreign participants to be attracted to the Nigerian economy and pull their resources, both financial and non-financial into the country (but, not without regulation). However, for these investors to have confidence to make investments in the Nigerian economy, there has to be a high degree of economic stability in the country. This can be supported by enacting and implementing policies that can enhance the quality of interest rates spread and financial development within the country. The policy implication here involves enhancing financial development through sound policies and adopting competitive interest rates, could increase the rate of foreign inflow into the economy. In view of this, it is also recommended that government policies should target interest rate competitiveness, financial and economic development as well as sustainability.

Analysis of Macro Economic Influence on Indonesian Trade

This study aims to analyze the influence of macroeconomic factors on Indonesia's international trade. The variables in this study are trade values, exchange rates, exports, imports, Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF), Gross Domestic Income (GDP), and foreign investment (FDI). The method used in this study is the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The VECM method is used in the analysis of long- and short-term relationships. The relationship studied is between the independent and dependent variables in the time series data. To find out the long-term relationship in research, researchers must analyze through the cointegration equation on the VECM test results. The data used in this study is time series data for 1991-2020 taken from World Development Indicators and the Indonesian Central Bureau of Statistics. Based on the results of the short-term analysis of the GFCF variable, imports and exports have no effect on the value of trade in Indonesia. While the FDI, GDP and import variables have a significant effect on the value of trade. In the long term, the variables of exchange rates, imports, GFCF, and FDI have a positive and significant effect on the value of trade in Indonesia.

Analysis of the Impact of Global Oil Prices On GDP (on the Example of the Azerbaijan Republic)

Purpose of the study. The article analyzes the impact of world oil prices (external and internal factors) on the country’s GDP, considers fluctuations in world oil prices, their impact on the national economy of Azerbaijan and the integrability of these macroeconomic indexes. Materials and methods. The study of the dynamics of the functioning of time series based on the initial data revealed their non-stationarity, which does not allow creating a “qualitative” predictive model. In order to achieve the goals of the study and “improve the quality” of the model being formed, which is used to calculate predictive estimates, appropriate econometric procedures were carried out and the integrability of time series was investigated. In particular, the method of vector error correction model VECM is used. The test is based on the use of cointegration equations between variables, where lag lengths and Granger causality definitions are solved within this model. When forming the VECM model, the hypotheses put forward in the work were tested using econometric tests. The responses of the impulse function to the independent variables of the model were studied by the method of graphical representation based on the values of the model and its residuals.Results. It has been determined that the long-term equilibrium relationship between variables can be considered stable, since after short-term disturbances from shock reactions, stability is restored. The applied method of decomposition of forecast error variances to determine the influence of exogenous variables on the endogenous variable showed that the greatest uncertainty in the forecast for GDP, Azeri_light, Brent and West is given by their own changes during the first trimester of the period under consideration.Conclusion. The results obtained can be useful for identifying real trends in Azerbaijan’s GDP and determining its interdependencies with other macroeconomic variables, for determining its interdependencies with variations in energy prices based on an analysis of the dynamics of the indexes under consideration, for developing recommendations and forming directions for the longterm development of GDP.

How China is mitigating resource curse through infrastructural development?

With the aim to stimulate economic activities, an effective and stable financial system is indispensable in each country, and meanwhile, natural resources should help to promote economic and financial development in that country. Motivated by this, we examine the effect of natural resources on financial development with the cointegration method, the cointegration regression (namely FMOLS and DOLS), and wavelet coherence approach in China. Mainly, we take the effect of transportation infrastructure into account and utilize economic growth as a control variable. The cointegration test indicates a long-run cointegration equation among natural resources, transportation infrastructure, economic growth, and financial development. Natural resources have a negative impact on financial development, which means the resource curse hypothesis exists, while transportation infrastructure and economic growth play a positive role in enhancing financial development in China. Furthermore, the results of a wavelet coherence analysis show that transportation infrastructure, natural resources, and financial development are all vulnerable at distinct frequencies. The results of FMOLS and DOLS are also supported by wavelet coherence. Our results have significant policy recommendations, indicating that efficient use of natural resources is required to promote sustainable and sound financial development.

Investigation of the relationship between renewable energy, natural gas, and coal consumption with economic growth in Turkey: evidence from augmented ARDL approach.

Energy is an indispensable requirement for the sustainable development of countries. Turkey has been trying to increase the use of renewable sources in electricity energy production with the policies it has implemented recently. This study investigates the effect of disaggregate energy consumption on economic growth in Turkey via the Augmented ARDL. Robust results are obtained by Augmented ARDL in econometric analysis. In this context, it is to examine the impact of renewable energy, natural gas, and coal consumption. Considering the 2001 crisis in Turkey, we add a dummy variable to the cointegration equation. The paper employs the recently developed augmented ARDL approach in the presence of one structural break to investigate annual time series data during the period 1988-2018. The results obtained in this study showed that all variables were statistically significant eventually. Long-term estimation results suggest that among the energy sources examined in the study, on economic growth has a positive effect coal consumption, natural gas consumption, and renewable energy. Moreover, empirical results indicated that economic growth and energy consumption also contribute to environmental damage. On the contrary, natural gas both increases economic growth and is effective in increasing environmental quality. The fact that the positive effect of renewable energy sources on economic growth eventually is greater than natural gas is the most striking finding of the study. In line with these results, it can be said that Turkey can reduce its energy dependence by increasing the use of domestic and renewable energy sources and providing sustainable economic growth.

Impact of Oil Factor on Investment: The Case of Azerbaijan

This article investigates the long-term and short-term interactions between crude oil prices, crude oil exports, and domestic and foreign investment in Azerbaijan using annual data from 1999 to 2021. In this research, the ARDL model was used to assess co-integration and short-term relationships. In addition, this study used the FMOLS, DOLS, and CCR co-integration equations to explore long-term coefficients between variables. Granger causation tests were performed, Granger causation analysis was assessed using the Wald test (short-term or weak causation, long-term causation, and both short-term and long-term causation or strong causal relationship). The study proposed 9 hypotheses regarding the impact of oil prices and oil exports on domestic and foreign investment. Some of the hypotheses were generally, if not completely, justified. Based on the established models and tests carried out, there are co-integrating relationships between the variables. Model coefficients are selected according to their economic and statistical significance. It is necessary to increase competition for the market between foreign and domestic investments, not only through the exchange rate, but also through other economic instruments. The study revealed the importance of the exchange rate of the Manat.

Effect of bank credit on agricultural gross domestic product

Purpose. This study aimed to provide the central bank of Bangladesh with some empirical data on the impact of bank agricultural credit on agricultural output as a priority sector lending. 
 Methodology / approach. Econometric analysis is applied to discover the nature of the relationship between banks’ agricultural credit and agricultural gross domestic product (GDP) and to find the impact of bank agricultural credit on agricultural output in Bangladesh. Data are extracted from secondary sources, i.e., Bangladesh Bank, Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, World Bank, and Ministry of Finance for 1991 to 2018. Time-series data are analyzed using the Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) unit root test and the Johansen cointegration test and later examined with Vector Error Correction Model (VECM).
 Results. The Augmented Dickey–Fuller unit root test confirmed that the variables were non-stationary at their level data and became stationary after taking their first difference value. Since the variables are integrated at I(1), we performed the Johansen Co-integration test. Subsequently, one co-integration equation was found, and Vector Error Correction Model estimation was done afterwards. According to the results of VECM estimation, bank agricultural credit, pesticide consumption, and use of cropped areas have long-run relation with agricultural output. 
 Originality / scientific novelty. This study reveals the nature of relationship and assessment of the impact of bank credit on agricultural GDP with empirically valid techniques and tools. In this context, the data from Bangladesh remains very rare. Moreover, for those works which have been done in the context of Bangladesh, appropriate methods and techniques are not always inherent. Hence, this significant research gap is addressed in our present study. Thus, we expect that the findings of this study from Bangladesh based on empirically valid standard techniques can incrementally contribute to the existing literature.
 Practical value / implications. Findings of this research, can be used as an information basis by the central bank of Bangladesh. Based on the findings of this research, Bangladesh Bank should initiate new policies and programs regarding agricultural credit for the projected increase in agricultural GDP in Bangladesh.

A Gender Perspective on Mexico's Economic Growth

Among the Latin American countries, the Mexican economy has shown since the late 1990's one of the lowest rates of economic growth. This is perplexing, because of the persistency of the stagnation tendencies, and because of the rapid growth shown by its exports, especially to the US, that reached $370 billion in 2018. The poor economic performance has had adverse consequences in terms of unemployment, emigration, social conflict, and especially in terms of the losses of female and male youth employment. This paper seeks to explain the causes of Mexico's economic stagnation. The methodology consists of the estimation of cointegration equations that express per capita economic growth as a function of the growth of labor productivity, plus the growth of the female and male employment to population ratios. Additional equations were estimated to identify the variables that explain the growth of productivity and of employment ratios and to estimate the role of deindustrialization in economic stagnation. An analysis was made of the role of female employment on the mobilization of domestic savings, on the determination of the deficit in the trade account, and on the constraint exerted by the balance of payments on growth. The source of data was the World Bank's World Development Indicators. The results indicated that female employment is an important determinant of external solvency and contributes to overcoming the balance of payments constrain on economic growth. Another salient result is the negative impact of youth unemployment on labor productivity and the negative impact of the percentage of young women that neither study nor work on economic growth. The policy implications are related to the importance of promoting male and female employment with a view towards accelerating economic growth, and the need to establish measures to facilitate women's entry into the labor market. This would require the establishment of national networks of childcare centers, the expansion of early childhood education, improving the quality of education, and increasing wages. As well, policies must be implemented to promote the reindustrialization and reagriculturalization of the Mexican economy to obtain national self-sufficiency and security and impart dynamism to economic growth.