Clyde Estuary Research Articles

The impact of estuarine flushing on greenhouse gases: A study of the stratified Clyde estuary

Estuaries and coastal waters are sensitive to ecological degradation but receive some of the highest levels of pollutants. One impact of these pollutants is increased greenhouse gas generation, which is significant, but difficult to estimate due to high variability and data paucity. This paper investigates key controls on methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) in the urban, mesotidal, stratified Clyde estuary, Scotland, between January 2020 and October 2022. Measurements covered the estuary longitudinally, through tidal cycles and across the river-estuary transition. Dissolved CH4 and N2O were always supersaturated relative to air exhibiting strong spatial and temporal variability. Estuary surface freshwater layer CH4 concentrations were positively correlated with turbidity and exceeded 5.4 μmol l−1. Lower saline layer CH4 concentrations exceeded 10.8 μmol l−1 and were highest after freshwater flushing events. The CH4 concentrations decreased exponentially with salinity persistence (time since last freshwater flushing event), reducing by 50% after 10 days of continuously saline water. Salinity persistence likely provides a tipping point between the dominance of different microbial communities. Considering the persistence of saline conditions can explain much of the previously reported variability in estuarine CH4. In the surface freshwater layer, N2O exceeded 0.15 μmol l−1, while in the lower saline layer N2O exceeded 0.21 μmol l−1, despite lower dissolved nitrogen, increasing the N2O per unit available nitrogen. There was a significant inverse exponential correlation (R2 = 0.96) between N2O and dissolved oxygen in the lower layer, with low oxygen driving elevated N2O concentrations. This study provides unique insights into the conditions that generate CH4 and N2O in a stratified urban-impacted estuary.

Participant perceptions of different forms of deliberative monetary valuation: Comparing democratic monetary valuation and deliberative democratic monetary valuation in the context of regional marine planning

As conceptual and theoretical discussions on environmental valuation approaches have advanced there is growing interest in the impact that valuation has on decision making. The perceived legitimacy of the outputs of valuation studies is seen as one factor influencing their impact on policy decisions. One element of this is ensuring that participants of valuation processes see the results as legitimate and would be willing to accept decisions based on these findings. Here, we test the perceived legitimacy to participants of two approaches to deliberative monetary valuation, deliberated preferences and Deliberative Democratic Monetary Valuation, in the context of marine planning in the Clyde estuary in Scotland. We compare and contrast deliberated preference and deliberative democratic monetary valuation and track their emergence as responses to critiques of conventional stated preference approaches. We then present the results of our case study where we found that deliberative democratic monetary valuation produced valuations that were perceived as more legitimate that deliberated preference as the basis for decision making by those involved in the valuation process.

Patterns of glacio‐isostatic adjustment in mainland Scotland: new data from western central Scotland, proximal to the zone of maximum rebound

The results of geomorphological mapping and survey of Lateglacial and Holocene displaced shorelines in the Clyde estuary and around Loch Lomond, western central Scotland are described. On the basis of morphology, sedimentology, altitude and radiocarbon dating, four discrete shorelines are identified and are correlated with previously identified Scottish displaced shorelines. The shoreline formerly referred to as the Main Postglacial Shoreline is renamed the Menteith Shoreline. This body of data, combined with data on displaced shorelines for Scotland as a whole has been analysed using Gaussian quadratic trend surface analysis in order to determine the centre of glacio‐isostatic displacement for each shoreline. These Gaussian models of palaeo‐relative sea‐level suggest that the zone of greatest displacement lay NNW of Loch Lomond in the Lateglacial then moved SSE to the region of Loch Lomond during the Holocene and the Clyde in the Late Holocene. The factors responsible for the movement of the zone of greatest uplift are discussed, including temporal variations in the ice‐sheet thickness, variations in water load in the adjacent sea‐lochs and neotectonic processes. Comparison is made with glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) models. A sensitivity analysis has been carried out on the use of Gaussian trend surface analysis glacio‐isostatic modelling and this is included in the research evaluation, and reported in full in the Supporting Information files, along with the raw data used throughout this study.

Investigating the behaviour of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) post-smolts during their early marine migration through the Clyde Marine Region.

It is thought that survival during migration is particularly poor for Atlantic salmon post-smolts immediately after entry into sea and particularly in the estuarine environment. Nonetheless, there is currently a lack of information on Atlantic salmon post-smolt movement behaviour in estuaries in the UK. This study used acoustic tagging to estimate loss rates and compare the behaviour of Atlantic salmon post-smolts migrating from two distinctly different rivers draining into the Clyde Estuary, the River Endrick (n=145) and the Gryffe (n=102). Contrary to most literature, post-smolts undertook rapid migrations through the estuary, potentially decreasing their exposure to predators/anthropogenic stressors and reducing their estimated loss rates (river: 1%-3%km-1 ; estuary: 0.20%-0.60%km-1 ). The low loss rates in the estuary occurred despite post-smolts engaging in passive reversal movements with the tide upon entering the estuary, possibly allowing them more time to adapt to the increased salinity. Atlantic salmon post-smolts from both the rivers used similar migration pathways exiting into the coastal marine zone during ebbing tide. This study provides novel information on the timing and migratory routes of Atlantic salmon post-smolts in the Clyde Estuary that can ultimately be used to inform management decisions on how to assess and reduce the potential impacts of current natural and anthropogenic stressors. Temporal repeatability of this study over multiple years is required to determine if there is variation in the factors driving the migratory patterns and loss rates of smolts in this system.

Occurrence and fate of chiral and achiral drugs in estuarine water - a case study of the Clyde Estuary, Scotland.

There is currently a lack of enantiospecific studies on chiral drugs in estuarine environments. In this study, the occurrence and fate of 20 prescription and illicit drugs, metabolites and associated contaminants were investigated in the Clyde Estuary, Scotland, over a 6 month period. More than half of the drugs were detected in at least 50% of water samples collected (n = 30), with considerable enantiomer enrichment observed for some of the compounds. Enantiomeric fraction (EF) values of the chiral drugs investigated in this study ranged from <0.03 for amphetamine to 0.70 for bisoprolol. Microcosm studies revealed enantioselective degradation of fluoxetine and citalopram for the first-time in estuarine waters (over 14 days at 8.0 °C in water of 27.8 practical salinity units). Interestingly, fish collected from the inner estuary (Platichthys flesus - European flounder) contained drug enantiomers in muscle and liver tissues. This included propranolol, fluoxetine, citalopram, and venlafaxine. Considerable enantiospecific differences were observed between the two fish tissues, and between fish tissues and water samples. For example, citalopram EF values in muscle and liver were 0.29 ± 0.03 and 0.18 ± 0.01, respectively. In water samples EF values were in the range 0.36-0.49. This suggests enantioselective metabolism of citalopram by P. flesus. The enantioselectivity of drugs observed within the Clyde Estuary highlights the need for enantiospecific effect-driven studies on marine organisms to better understand their impact in estuarine environments, contributing to the likely cumulative impacts of the range of contaminants to which marine coastal wildlife is exposed.

Heterologous production of novel and rare C30-carotenoids using Planococcus carotenoid biosynthesis genes

BackgroundMembers of the genus Planococcus have been revealed to utilize and degrade solvents such as aromatic hydrocarbons and alkanes, and likely to acquire tolerance to solvents. A yellow marine bacterium Planococcus maritimus strain iso-3 was isolated from an intertidal sediment that looked industrially polluted, from the Clyde estuary in the UK. This bacterium was found to produce a yellow acyclic carotenoid with a basic carbon 30 (C30) structure, which was determined to be methyl 5-glucosyl-5,6-dihydro-4,4′-diapolycopenoate. In the present study, we tried to isolate and identify genes involved in carotenoid biosynthesis from this marine bacterium, and to produce novel or rare C30-carotenoids with anti-oxidative activity in Escherichia coli by combinations of the isolated genes.ResultsA carotenoid biosynthesis gene cluster was found out through sequence analysis of the P. maritimus genomic DNA. This cluster consisted of seven carotenoid biosynthesis candidate genes (orf1–7). Then, we isolated the individual genes and analyzed the functions of these genes by expressing them in E. coli. The results indicated that orf2 and orf1 encoded 4,4′-diapophytoene synthase (CrtM) and 4,4′-diapophytoene desaturase (CrtNa), respectively. Furthermore, orf4 and orf5 were revealed to code for hydroxydiaponeurosporene desaturase (CrtNb) and glucosyltransferase (GT), respectively. By utilizing these carotenoid biosynthesis genes, we produced five intermediate C30-carotenoids. Their structural determination showed that two of them were novel compounds, 5-hydroxy-5,6-dihydro-4,4′-diaponeurosporene and 5-glucosyl-5,6-dihydro-4,4′-diapolycopene, and that one rare carotenoid 5-hydroxy-5,6-dihydro-4,4′-diapolycopene is included there. Moderate singlet oxygen-quenching activities were observed in the five C30-carotenoids including the two novel and one rare compounds.ConclusionsThe carotenoid biosynthesis genes from P. maritimus strain iso-3, were isolated and functionally identified. Furthermore, we were able to produce two novel and one rare C30-carotenoids in E. coli, followed by positive evaluations of their singlet oxygen-quenching activities.

Molecular and bulk geochemical proxies in sediments from the Conwy Estuary, UK

Owing to their restricted riverine flow and greater numbers, small estuaries (annual discharge < 2000 m3 s−1) are important sites of organic carbon (OC) storage in sediments. The Conwy Estuary is an exemplar small rural-agricultural catchment which delivers a diverse pool of terrestrial OC to the Irish Sea. Thirty-nine surface sediments, covering a distance of 10.5 km, were taken transversal as well as longitudinal to the estuary to examine local and distant catchment inputs. Biomarkers (branched Glycerol Dialkyl Glycerol Tetraethers - brGDGTs, n-alkanes) and molecular and bulk proxies (BIT, Paq, TAR, δ13C, C/N), showed sediments were dominated by terrestrial inputs, with only sediments of the three most seaward sites showing stronger physical and geochemical characteristics of a marine influence (e.g., sandier sediments and lower BIT). Biomarker concentrations in the Conwy were comparable to the more urbanised Thames and the Clyde estuaries. The three estuaries showed similar fractional abundance of the brGDGTs, recording an inverse trend between the hexamethylated and the tetramethylated brGDGTs, and showing the pentamethylated brGDGTs as the dominant group. A systematic decrease in terrestrial biomarkers from bank to the main channel confirmed either a strong localised erosion/runoff process or a decrease in water velocity leading to a higher deposition.

The legacy of industrial pollution in estuarine sediments: spatial and temporal variability implications for ecosystem stress

The direct impacts of anthropogenic pollution are widely known public and environmental health concerns, and details on the indirect impact of these are starting to emerge, for example affecting the environmental microbiome. Anthropogenic activities throughout history with associated pollution burdens are notable contributors. Focusing on the historically heavily industrialised River Clyde, Scotland, we investigate spatial and temporal contributions to stressful/hostile environments using a geochemical framework, e.g. pH, EC, total organic carbon and potentially toxic elements: As, Co, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn and enrichment indicators. With regular breaches of the sediment quality standards in the estuarine system we focused on PTE correlations instead. Multivariate statistical analysis (principle component analysis) identifies two dominant components, PC1: As, Cr, Cu, Pb and Zn, as well as PC2: Ni, Co and total organic carbon. Our assessment confirms hot spots in the Clyde Estuary indicative of localised inputs. In addition, there are sites with high variability indicative of excessive mixing. We demonstrate that industrialised areas are dynamic environmental sites dependant on historical anthropogenic activity with short-scale variation. This work supports the development of ‘contamination’ mapping to enable an assessment of the impact of historical anthropogenic pollution, identifying specific ‘stressors’ that can impact the microbiome, neglecting in estuarine recovery dynamics and potentially supporting the emergence of antimicrobial resistance in the environment.

Summer survival and activity patterns of estuary feeding anadromous Salmo trutta

AbstractThere is generally a very poor understanding of how anadromous brown trout, Salmo trutta, use marine ecosystems. In this study, we use acoustic telemetry techniques to test four alternative hypotheses for estuarine coastal habitat use by this species on a population in the Clyde, west‐central Scotland. Anadromous brown trout in their second (or more) summer feeding in the marine environment did not show patterns of estuarine use predicted from studies on other populations of this species. They did not (a) use the inner Clyde Estuary as a staging post for onward migration to open coastal waters, nor did they (b) pass through the estuary rapidly nor did they (c) make multiple incursions into freshwater. In contrast, fish utilised a very geographically constrained area of the inner estuary (&lt;8 km in length), within which fish were highly mobile, exhibiting more activity during a flooding tide and exhibited high survivorship compared with reports from other studies. The reasons why estuarine use by anadromous brown trout in the Clyde may differ from that reported elsewhere is discussed.

The toxicity of potentially toxic elements (Cu, Fe, Mn, Zn and Ni) to the cnidarian Hydra attenuata at environmentally relevant concentrations

The domestic, agricultural, industrial, technological and medical applications of potentially toxic elements (PTEs) have led to global pollution in all environments. In this study, the cnidarian Hydra attenuata was exposed individually and to a mixture of 5 metals (copper, iron, manganese, zinc and nickel) at environmentally relevant concentrations (1×) within the Clyde estuary, Scotland and incremental concentrations ranging from 0.0001× to 1000×. Toxicity was investigated using morphology, attachment, hydranth number and feeding behaviour as endpoints. When exposed individually, Cu, Mn and Fe significantly reduced Hydra morphology, feeding and attachment at environmentally relevant concentrations. Hydra mortality was measured, having an LC50 of 0.045× (for the environmentally relevant mixture of metals) and Cu 0.5 mg/l, Fe 3 mg/l, Mn 2 mg/l, Zn 0.1 mg/l, Ni 0.5 mg/l for each element exposed individually. The PTE mixture incurred a significant decrease (p ≤ 0.05) in morphology at 0.0001×, with 100% mortality at 0.1× (containing a concentration of Cu 0.05 mg/l, Fe 0.3 mg/l, Mn 0.2 mg/l, Zn 0.01 mg/l, Ni 0.05 mg/l) and a toxicity threshold (TT) of 0.000005×. Both copper and iron when exposed individually to the concentration of their respective metals found in the environment resulted in 100% mortality for all Hydra exposed. These results indicate that the PTE mixture (including the individual concentrations of copper, iron, manganese and nickel) could potentially prove significantly toxic to the aquatic environment.

Microplastic pollution in estuaries across a gradient of human impact

Microplastic (MP) pollution is an emerging issue in aquatic sciences. Little comparative information currently exists about the problem in coastal systems exposed to different levels of human impact. Here we report a year-long study on the abundance of MP in the water column of three estuaries on the east-coast of Australia. The estuaries are subject to different scales of human impact; the Clyde estuary has little human modification, the Bega estuary has a small township and single wastewater treatment works discharging to its waters, and the Hunter estuary which has multiple townships, multiple wastewater treatment plants, and heavy industry. MP abundance followed an expected pattern with the lowest abundance in the low-impact Clyde estuary (98 part. m3), moderate levels of MP in the moderately impacted Bega estuary (246 part. m3), and high MP abundance in the highly impacted Hunter estuary (1032 part. m3). The majority of particles were <200 μm and fragment-like rather than fiber-like. MP abundance was positively related to maximum antecedent rainfall in the Bega estuary, however there are no clear environmental factors that could explain MP variation in the other systems. MP were generally higher in summer and following freshwater inflow events. On the Hunter estuary MP abundance was at times as high as zooplankton abundance, and within the range of numbers reported in other highly impacted systems globally. The results confirm that higher levels of human impact lead to greater plastic pollution and highlight the need to examine aquatic ecosystems under a range of conditions in order to adequately characterize the extent of MP pollution in rivers and coastal systems.

First record of the non-native green palpworm Marenzelleria viridis (Annelida: Spionidae) in the Clyde Estuary

The non-native polychaete worm Marenzelleria viridis (Verrill, 1873) was found for the first time in the upper Clyde Estuary in 2016. This represents the first occurrence of this alien species on the west coast of Scotland. It appearsto be well established in low salinity waters at Govan Wharf where it dominated the biomass of riverbed infaunal invertebrates with densities of around 1,300 worms m-2.

Woodlouse diversity on some Clyde Estuary islands

Woodlouse diversity on some Clyde Estuary islands

Geochemistry and related studies of Clyde Estuary sediments

ABSTRACTGeochemical and related studies have been made of near-surface sediments from the River Clyde estuary and adjoining areas, extending from Glasgow to the N, and W as far as the Holy Loch on the W coast of Scotland, UK. Multibeam echosounder, sidescan sonar and shallow seismic data, taken with core information, indicate that a shallow layer of modern sediment, often less than a metre thick, rests on earlier glacial and post-glacial sediments. The offshore Quaternary history can be aligned with onshore sequences, with the recognition of buried drumlins, settlement of muds from quieter water, probably behind an ice dam, and later tidal delta deposits. The geochemistry of contaminants within the cores also indicates shallow contaminated sediments, often resting on pristine pre-industrial deposits at depths less than 1m. The distribution of different contaminants with depth in the sediment, such as Pb (and Pb isotopes), organics and radionuclides, allow chronologies of contamination from different sources to be suggested. Dating was also attempted using microfossils, radiocarbon and 210Pb, but with limited success. Some of the spatial distribution of contaminants in the surface sediments can be related to grain-size variations. Contaminants are highest, both in absolute terms and in enrichment relative to the natural background, in the urban and inner estuary and in the Holy Loch, reflecting the concentration of industrial activity.

Modelling sea level surges in the Firth of Clyde, a fjordic embayment in south-west Scotland

Storm surges are an abnormal enhancement of the water level in response to weather perturbations. They have the capacity to cause damaging flooding of coastal regions, especially when they coincide with astronomical high spring tides. Some areas of the UK have suffered particularly damaging surge events, and the Firth of Clyde is a region with high risk due to its location and morphology. Here, we use a three-dimensional high spatial resolution hydrodynamic model to simulate the local bathymetric and morphological enhancement of surge in the Clyde, and disaggregate the effects of far-field atmospheric pressure distribution and local scale wind forcing of surges. A climatological analysis, based on 30 years of data from Millport tide gauges, is also discussed. The results suggest that floods are not only caused by extreme surge events, but also by the coupling of spring high tides with moderate surges. Water level is also enhanced by a funnelling effect due to the bathymetry and the morphology of fjordic sealochs and the River Clyde Estuary. In a world of rising sea level, studying the propagation and the climatology of surges and high water events is fundamental. In addition, high-resolution hydrodynamic models are essential to forecast extreme events and to prevent the loss of lives, or to plan coastal defences solutions.

Sediment Contaminants and Infauna Associated with Recreational Boating Structures in a Multi-Use Marine Park.

Multi-use marine parks achieve conservation through spatial management of activities. Zoning of marine parks in New South Wales, Australia, includes high conservation areas and special purpose zones (SPZ) where maritime activities are concentrated. Although such measures geographically constrain anthropogenic impacts, we have limited understanding of potential ecological effects. We assessed sediment communities and contaminants adjacent to boating infrastructure (boat ramps, jetties and a marina) in a SPZ from the Clyde Estuary in Batemans Marine Park. Metal concentrations and fines content were elevated at boating structures compared to reference sites. Species richness was higher at sites with boating structures, where capitellid polychaetes and nematodes dominated the communities. Changes associated with boating structures were localised and did not extend beyond breakwalls or to reference sites outside the SPZ. The study highlights the benefits of appropriate zoning in a multi-use marine park and the potential to minimise stress on pristine areas through the application of spatial management.

Estimating estuarine turbidity: An application to estuaries of the Isle of Man and northeast Irish Sea

A simple estimation method for estuarine turbidity that may be helpful for management purposes is used to predict SPM concentrations for the strongly tidal estuaries of the northeast Irish Sea. It demonstrates a systematic tendency for the longer, more slowly flushed estuaries to have greater ‘intrinsic’ SPM concentrations within their high turbidity regions than the shorter estuaries. Predicted maximum SPM concentrations for the mainland estuaries vary from ∼10 mg l−1 (Bladnoch) to ∼10 g l−1 (Solway, Mersey and Dee). The Isle of Man estuaries are predicted to have maximum SPM concentrations that are less than 10 mg l−1. These small predicted concentrations are largely a consequence of their short lengths and short residence times. Geomorphology is the ultimate reason for this difference in Isle of Man and mainland estuarine turbidity. The Isle of Man has steep slopes and small rivers that flow rapidly to sea via short estuaries, whereas the mainland has a number of large, long, coastal plain estuaries that allow strong tidal currents to develop and provide storage for large quantities of fine sediment. Survey data for the Solway Esk and the Forth and Clyde Estuaries are used to illustrate the effects of uncertainty in the definition of an estuary's tidal length, which is a problem both for estuarine science and estuarine management. Despite the dearth of published, good quality field data for the estuaries described herein, there is nevertheless a good qualitative agreement between the predicted values of SPM and the majority of these observations.

Chemical signatures of the Anthropocene in the Clyde estuary, UK: sediment-hosted Pb, 207/206 Pb, total petroleum hydrocarbon, polyaromatic hydrocarbon and polychlorinated biphenyl pollution records

The sediment concentrations of total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPHs), polyaromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), Pb and (207/206)Pb isotope ratios were measured in seven cores from the middle Clyde estuary (Scotland, UK) with an aim of tracking the late Anthropocene. Concentrations of TPHs ranged from 34 to 4386 mg kg(-1), total PAHs from 19 to 16,163 μg kg(-1) and total PCBs between less than 4.3 to 1217 μg kg(-1). Inventories, distributions and isomeric ratios of the organic pollutants were used to reconstruct pollutant histories. Pre-Industrial Revolution and modern non-polluted sediments were characterized by low TPH and PAH values as well as high relative abundance of biogenic-sourced phenanthrene and naphthalene. The increasing industrialization of the Clyde gave rise to elevated PAH concentrations and PAH isomeric ratios characteristic of both grass/wood/coal and petroleum and combustion (specifically petroleum combustion). Overall, PAHs had the longest history of any of the organic contaminants. Increasing TPH concentrations and a concomitant decline in PAHs mirrored the lessening of coal use and increasing reliance on petroleum fuels from about the 1950s. Thereafter, declining hydrocarbon pollution was followed by the onset (1950s), peak (1965-1977) and decline (post-1980s) in total PCB concentrations. Lead concentrations ranged from 6 to 631 mg kg(-1), while (207/206)Pb isotope ratios spanned 0.838-0.876, indicative of various proportions of 'background', British ore/coal and Broken Hill type petrol/industrial lead. A chronology was established using published Pb isotope data for aerosol-derived Pb and applied to the cores.

An assessment of persistent organic pollutants in Scottish coastal and offshore marine environments

Concentrations of persistent organic pollutants (POPs), including polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) were determined in sediment and biota (fish liver) from around Scotland. The concentrations were investigated using assessment criteria developed by OSPAR and ICES. Organic contaminant concentrations, PAHs, PCBs and PBDEs in sediment, and PCBs and PBDEs in fish liver, were significantly higher in the Clyde compared to all other sea areas. This is mainly due to historic industrial inputs. Highest PCB and PAH concentrations were found in the strata furthest up the Clyde estuary, with concentrations of POPs in these strata being at levels such that there is an unacceptable risk of chronic effects occurring in marine species. Furthermore, for PAHs in Clyde sediment there was a significant negative gradient going from north to south towards the open sea. PAH and PCB concentrations in sediment and biota in all other Scottish sea areas (except for PCBs in sediment from East Scotland) were unlikely to give rise to pollution effects, being below relevant assessment criteria. Although no assessment criteria are available for PBDEs, the concentrations observed in Scottish sediments were low with all congeners below the limit of detection (LoD; 0.03 µg kg(-1) dry weight) in 140 out of a total of 307 samples analysed. Where PBDEs were detected, the dominant congeners were BDE47 and BDE99. PBDEs were detected in fish livers, although concentrations were less than 150 µg kg(-1) lipid weight in all sea areas except the Clyde where concentrations ranged between 8.9 and 2202 µg kg(-1) lipid weight. Few trends were detected in contaminant concentrations in biota or sediment at any Scottish site with more than five years data. Downward trends were detected in PAHs in sediment from the Clyde, Irish Sea and Minches and Malin Sea and PCBs in fish liver from the Moray Firth. Rules were developed for the aggregation of the contaminant data across a sea area. An overall assessment for each sea area was then assigned, looking at the frequency of sites or strata within each sea area that were above or below the relevant assessment criteria. Overall the status of the various sea areas, with respect to the assessed POPs, can be considered to be acceptable in that they were below concentrations likely to result in chronic effects for all sea areas except the Clyde.

Modelling the long-term morphological evolution of the Clyde Estuary, Scotland, UK

The long-term morphodynamic response of the Clyde Estuary to any possible change in environmental forcing associated with global climate change and human interference is examined here using a model based on a systems approach. The model, which uses Boolean Algebra as its formal mathematical language, provides a qualitative insight into the long term morphodynamic behaviour of the estuarine system, at this level without the need for detailed and quantitative hydrodynamic and morphodynamic process knowledge or extensive data resources. The model predictions suggest that the long-term morphological changes in the Clyde Estuary largely depend on the fluvial flow of the River Clyde. Salt marshes in the upper reaches of the estuary were found to be the most vulnerable morphological feature of the estuary. In the event of increased river flow in the future, a likely situation according to climate change scenarios, saltmarshes will deplete or disappear altogether, irrespective of the sediment influx into the estuary. Changes to waves and tides will also contribute to the evolution by taking the estuary through significantly different intermediate morphological states whilst evolving towards a stable end state.