Abstract The increase in the frequency of extreme precipitation in different parts of the world is well documented and a cause for concern in terms of global climate change. Although clouds are the only source of precipitation, there is a lack of knowledge about the type of clouds involved in extreme precipitation events. Satellite- and ground-based observations show that over the central Indian region (19°–26°N, 75°–85°E), about 60% of the extreme precipitation comes from deep convective clouds (DCCs), which have a cloud-top pressure (CTP) of less than 440 hPa and a cloud optical thickness (COT) of over 23. It was also observed that cloud liquid water (CLW) and COT show the highest correlation with extreme precipitation. Furthermore, CLW and COT show the highest contrast between extreme and nonextreme precipitation events. Simulations by a 12-km Global Forecast System (GFS, spectral) model show that the model underestimates the extreme precipitation threshold with increased forecast lead time. The simulation of associated cloud optical parameters is also poor at all lead times in different parts of India. The model also fails to capture the observed relationship between the frequency of extreme precipitation and deep convective clouds without showing any correlation between them at all lead times. This is possibly because the model simulates the observed vertical structure of the apparent heat source poorly at all lead times which leads to poor simulation of the observed relationship between cloud optical properties and extreme rainfall. Significance Statement The occurrence of extreme rainfall events is on the rise across the globe, and India is no exception. Clouds are the only source of rainfall; however, there is a lack of understanding about what type of clouds is causing them. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the relationship between cloud, convection, and extreme rainfall events during the Indian summer monsoon months. Furthermore, it is also important to investigate the skill of the current-generation global models to simulate them. This study highlights how cloud optical properties, convection, and extreme rainfall events are related to each other and also finds that a 12-km GFS model simulates these observed relationships poorly at all lead times leading to the poor simulation of extreme rainfall events.
Read full abstract