Closure Policy Research Articles

Global COVID-19 Pandemic Waves: Limited Lessons Learned Worldwide over the Past Year.

The occurrence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was followed by a small burst of cases around the world; afterward, due to a series of emergency non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), the increasing number of confirmed cases slowed down in many countries. However, the lifting of control measures by the government and the public’s loosening of precautionary behaviors led to a sudden increase in cases, arousing deep concern across the globe. arousing deep concern across the globe. This study evaluates the situation of the COVID-19 pandemic in countries and territories worldwide from January 2020 to February 2021. According to the time-varying reproduction number (R(t)) of each country or territory, the results show that almost half of the countries and territories in the world have never controlled the epidemic. Among the countries and territories that had once contained the occurrence, nearly half failed to maintain their prevention and control, causing the COVID-19 pandemic to rebound across the world—resulting in even higher waves in half of the rebounding countries or territories. This work also proposes and uses a time-varying country-level transmission risk score (CTRS), which takes into account both R(t) and daily new cases, to demonstrate country-level or territory-level transmission potential and trends. Time-varying hierarchical clustering of time-varying CTRS values was used to successfully reveal the countries and territories that contributed to the recent aggravation of the global pandemic in the last quarter of 2020 and the beginning of 2021, and to identify countries and territories with an increasing risk of COVID-19 transmission in the near future. Furthermore, a regression analysis indicated that the introduction and relaxation of NPIs, including workplace closure policies and stay-at-home requirements, appear to be associated with recent global transmission changes. In conclusion, a systematic evaluation of the global COVID-19 pandemic over the past year indicates that the world is now in an unexpected situation, with limited lessons learned. Summarizing the lessons learned could help in designing effective public responses for constraining future waves of COVID-19 worldwide.

Choice With(out) Equity? Family Decisions of Child Return to Urban Schools in Pandemic

In response to the COVID-19 global pandemic, most schools across the country closed in-person instruction for a period of time and many shifted to online schooling. Beginning in fall 2020, schools around the United States began reopening and many districts offered families a decision or “choice” to return their children to an in-person or online schooling experience. In many cities, this approach complicated existing school choice and permanent closure policies with already existing equity issues. Building upon previous scholarship on school choice and closure, this study draws on the concept of school choice with(out) equity (Frankenberg et al., 2010; Scott & Stuart Wells, 2013; Horsford et al., 2019). Using data from an online survey (n = 155 participants) in August 2020, this study examines why families (50% white, 50% people of color) decided to return their children to in-person schooling in Hartford, Connecticut. This study uses a mixed-method analysis of qualitative responses and quantitative data to understand family decisions to return to in-person schooling (Creswell, 2014). Rather than school choices with full equity considerations during the pandemic, these family responses focused on needs of childcare for full-time work and health safety. These responses suggest a partial equity in the landscape of available choices. The study raises questions about reapplying old forms of school choice to a new form of temporary school closure during pandemic.

Socio-economic implications of COVID-19 pandemic in Nigeria

After half of a century as a major oil producer, the Nigerian economy is yet to diversify; thus, remains dominated by primary activities. Whereas oil and gas activities directly employ a negligible number of Nigerians, the industry impacts on the overall economy of the country. However, with large resource windfalls, limited technical capacity, and weak check and balances, the scope for inefficiency, corruption, and elite capture of Nigeria‘s oil-driven economy is substantial. Consequently, the arrival of COVID-19 further exposed the fragility of the economy. As a theoretical paper, the researcher relied on data from secondary sources which yielded quantitative and qualitative information. The secondary data were derived mainly from journals, books and empirical case studies on the impact of pandemics on global production of petroleum, the Nigerian economy, and the overall social sector. News media analysis, government bulletins, and relevant data from civil society organizations, State Security Forces, and Corporate organizations on the debilitating consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic were also reviewed. The paper revealed that the socio-economic implications of the pandemic derived from fall in global oil price, policy interventions by the government such as bans on certain types of activities, closure of borders, state lockdowns, school closure and social distancing policies, all of which resulted in disruptions felt in all the sectors of the economy and society. Thus, it is suggested here that efforts must be made to address poverty just as there is an urgent need to improve on the healthcare sector. Unemployment should be tackled positively while government should place greater emphasis on technology and other modern methods of imparting knowledge.

Monetary and Fiscal Policies to Respond to the Repercussions of the Corona Pandemic Spread on the Global Economy

The study aimed to review the most important economic repercussions of the Corona virus crisis on the global economy and on the performance of the most important macroeconomic indicators affected as a result of the embargo, closure and social distancing policies that most countries of the world have taken to confront the spread of the Covid-19 virus. The study found inaccuracies and clarity in the economic forecasts regarding the recovery of economic growth in light of the fear of the spread of a second or third wave that would make the global economy worse than it was in the beginning of the crisis, especially after the failure to reach a medical solution to eliminate the spread of the pandemic.

E-Learning Evaluation Using General Extended Technology Acceptance Model Approach at Schools in COVID-19 Pandemic

<p style="text-align:justify">The purpose of this research is to provide empirical evidence of the influence of perceived usefulness, convenience, experience, gender, and age on the intention to use e-learning after the government's school closure policy due to the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. Our sample is junior high school teachers in Indonesia and the data are analyzed using the Structural Equation Model (SEM). We show that perceived usefulness has a positive influence on e-learning intentions. The perceived convenience is not the reason for the teachers to use e-learning because they have no other alternative in carrying out their duties apart from e-learning. Besides, we have also found that gender and experience influence e-learning intentions. The teachers with different genders and experiences continue to implement e-learning as their way of teaching during the pandemic. The younger teachers have a higher intention of using e-learning. They have adequate digital abilities and are more confident in using e-learning, so they have a great intention in implementing e-learning for the delivery of the materials. Experienced teachers will find it easier to find the use and convenience of e-learning. Apart from experience, male teachers also report that it is easier to grasp the ease of e-learning. However, older teachers show more concern about their perception of system usability as a reason for using e-learning than system convenience.</p>

Government responses and COVID-19 deaths: Global evidence across multiple pandemic waves.

We provide an assessment of the impact of government closure and containment measures on deaths from COVID-19 across sequential waves of the COVID-19 pandemic globally. Daily data was collected on a range of containment and closure policies for 186 countries from January 1, 2020 until March 11th, 2021. These data were combined into an aggregate stringency index (SI) score for each country on each day (range: 0-100). Countries were divided into successive waves via a mathematical algorithm to identify peaks and troughs of disease. Within our period of analysis, 63 countries experienced at least one wave, 40 countries experienced two waves, and 10 countries saw three waves, as defined by our approach. Within each wave, regression was used to assess the relationship between the strength of government stringency and subsequent deaths related to COVID-19 with a number of controls for time and country-specific demographic, health system, and economic characteristics. Across the full period of our analysis and 113 countries, an increase of 10 points on the SI was linked to 6 percentage points (P < 0.001, 95% CI = [5%, 7%]) lower average daily deaths. In the first wave, in countries that ultimately experiences 3 waves of the pandemic to date, ten additional points on the SI resulted in lower average daily deaths by 21 percentage points (P < .001, 95% CI = [8%, 16%]). This effect was sustained in the third wave with reductions in deaths of 28 percentage points (P < .001, 95% CI = [13%, 21%]). Moreover, interaction effects show that government policies were effective in reducing deaths in all waves in all groups of countries. These findings highlight the enduring importance of non-pharmaceutical responses to COVID-19 over time.

School Management in Response to Coronavirus Disease 2019

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak emerged in Thailand in January 2020 with the situation worsening during March-April 2020. The government decided to lockdown most public places, including schools and daycare nurseries even though the proportion of cases in under 15-year-old was small (about 2.8%). Evidence at the global level did not reach consensus on how to manage school openings properly. The Department of Health of the Ministry of Public Health has delivered school guidelines for the prevention and control of COVID-19. The modelling team of the Department of Disease Control demonstrated that the risk of an infective presenting with a long incubation period (more than seven days) was approximately 12%. This figure reduced to only 1% if a fourteen-day cutoff was applied. The infectivity risk did not depend on the incubation period alone, but greatly relied on the ability of a school to detect a case. With a timely and comprehensive detection rate (close to 100%), a seven-day closure policy yielded almost the same infectivity risk as a fourteen-day closure policy. Policy makers should bring the issues of health, education, and the social impact of children to the table and identify the most appropriate measures to control COVID-19 while ensuring the best quality of life of a child.

The impact of COVID-19 epidemic on development of micro, small and medium enterprises policy in East Kalimantan government

This article discusses the efforts of the East Kalimantan Government handling cases of development of micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) during the COVID-19. The handling strategy can be assessed by understanding the measures, steps, and policies formulated and implemented by the East Kalimantan government. A deliberative policy analysis approach was used to analyze this case. This approach analyzes the narratives and arguments of the authorities to understand decision-making and policy implementation. The writing of this article uses a qualitative approach by utilizing the descriptive analysis method. The data collection technique used is a literature study using books, journal articles, newspapers, online news, and traditional institutions' websites. First, this paper's essential findings are reallocation and refocusing of the Covid-19 Budget for the cost of economic stimulus to strengthen capital for affected businesses and small industry players. Second, relaxation and credit restructuring. Third, the temporary closure policy for cafes or restaurants is due to residents' ignorance or non-compliance with government calls regarding health protocols. As a result, efforts to deal with it have stalled because the wider community does not support it. Combining these three factors complicates the provincial government's efforts to deal with MSMEs' development during the COVID-19 pandemic in East Kalimantan. Policy recommendations for the recovery of MSMEs in East Kalimantan Province, namely increasing the role of Indagkop through fostering and educating MSMEs in utilizing technology to sell online and the one-door policy for MSMEs.

Comparing the impact on COVID-19 mortality of self-imposed behavior change and of government regulations across 13 countries.

ObjectiveCountries have adopted different approaches, at different times, to reduce the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19). Cross‐country comparison could indicate the relative efficacy of these approaches. We assess various nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), comparing the effects of voluntary behavior change and of changes enforced via official regulations, by examining their impacts on subsequent death rates.Data SourcesSecondary data on COVID‐19 deaths from 13 European countries, over March–May 2020.Study DesignWe examine two types of NPI: the introduction of government‐enforced closure policies and self‐imposed alteration of individual behaviors in the period prior to regulations. Our proxy for the latter is Google mobility data, which captures voluntary behavior change when disease salience is sufficiently high. The primary outcome variable is the rate of change in COVID‐19 fatalities per day, 16–20 days after interventions take place. Linear multivariate regression analysis is used to evaluate impacts.Data collection/extraction methods: publicly available.Principal FindingsVoluntarily reduced mobility, occurring prior to government policies, decreases the percent change in deaths per day by 9.2 percentage points (pp) (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.5–14.0 pp). Government closure policies decrease the percent change in deaths per day by 14.0 pp (95% CI 10.8–17.2 pp). Disaggregating government policies, the most beneficial for reducing fatality, are intercity travel restrictions, canceling public events, requiring face masks in some situations, and closing nonessential workplaces. Other sub‐components, such as closing schools and imposing stay‐at‐home rules, show smaller and statistically insignificant impacts.ConclusionsNPIs have substantially reduced fatalities arising from COVID‐19. Importantly, the effect of voluntary behavior change is of the same order of magnitude as government‐mandated regulations. These findings, including the substantial variation across dimensions of closure, have implications for the optimal targeted mix of government policies as the pandemic waxes and wanes, especially given the economic and human welfare consequences of strict regulations.

Access to healthcare for people aged 50+ in Europe during the COVID-19 outbreak.

This paper combines SHARE Corona Survey and SHARE Wave 7 data for 25 European countries and Israel (N = 40,919) with institutional and epidemic-related country characteristics to investigate healthcare access for Europeans aged 50+ during the outbreak of COVID-19. We use a micro–macro approach to examine whether and to what extent barriers to accessing healthcare measured by reported unmet healthcare needs vary within and between countries. We consider various aspects of barriers and distinguish among: (1) respondents who forewent medical treatment because they were afraid of becoming infected with the Coronavirus; (2) respondents who had pre-scheduled medical appointments postponed by health providers due to the outbreak; and (3) respondents who tried to arrange a medical appointment but were denied one. Limited access to healthcare during the initial outbreak was more common for the occupationally active, women, the more educated and those living in urban areas. A bad economic situation, poor overall health and higher healthcare utilisation were robust predictors of unmet healthcare. People aged 50+ in countries of ‘Old’ Europe, countries with higher universal health coverage and stricter containment and closure policies were more likely to have medical services postponed. Policymakers should address the healthcare needs of older people with chronic health conditions and a poor socio-economic status who were made more vulnerable by this pandemic. In the aftermath of the health crisis, public health systems might experience a great revival in healthcare demand, a challenge that should be mitigated by careful planning and provision of healthcare services.

Survey of Work Zone Practices and Validation of Highway Capacity Manual Work Zone Capacity Model

Capacity at work zones is one of the major factors affecting queueing at work zones. Different states within the United States use their own methodology in determining work zone capacities and when to implement lane closures at work zones. The objective of this study was two-fold: first, to provide a synthesis of work zone lane closure procedures practiced by the various Departments of Transportation (DOTs) nationwide; and secondly, to validate the Highway Capacity Manual 6th edition’s (HCM 6) work zone capacity model using field-collected data in the state of Louisiana. The first objective was met by administering a survey to DOTs nationwide. The survey revealed that half of the states that responded to the survey require minimum capacity for short-term work zone lane closures, with minimum capacity ranging from 1100 to 1900 passenger cars per hour per lane. In addition, most of the states reported implementing consistent policies across various district offices. The survey findings provide a good source of information on queue analysis and work zone lane closure policies adopted across different DOTs. The second objective was met by collecting traffic flow data from 10 work zone sites within the state of Louisiana and validating the capacity model in the HCM 6. Results showed the HCM 6 model slightly overestimating the average field-observed capacity by 6%. In the absence of local data, the HCM 6 model provides a great tool to estimate work zone capacities in Louisiana.

Molecular Epidemiological Study of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in a Kindergarten-Based Setting in Bangkok, Thailand.

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a contagious childhood illness and annually affects millions of children aged less than 5 years across the Asia–Pacific region. HFMD transmission mainly occurs through direct contact (person-to-person) and indirect contact with contaminated surfaces and objects. Therefore, public health measures to reduce the spread of HFMD in kindergartens and daycare centers are essential. Based on the guidelines by the Department of Disease Control, a school closure policy for HFMD outbreaks wherein every school in Thailand must close when several HFMD classrooms (more than two cases in each classroom) are encountered within a week, was implemented, although without strong supporting evidence. We therefore conducted a prospective cohort study of children attending five kindergartens during 2019 and 2020. We used molecular genetic techniques to investigate the characteristics of the spreading patterns of HFMD in a school-based setting in Bangkok, Thailand. These analyses identified 22 index cases of HFMD (symptomatic infections) and 25 cases of enterovirus-positive asymptomatic contacts (24 students and one teacher). Enterovirus (EV) A71 was the most common enterovirus detected, and most of the infected persons (8/12) developed symptoms. Other enteroviruses included coxsackieviruses (CVs) A4, CV-A6, CV-A9, and CV-A10 as well as echovirus. The pattern of the spread of HFMD showed that 45% of the subsequent enteroviruses detected in each outbreak possessed the same serotype as the first index case. Moreover, we found a phylogenetic relationship among enteroviruses detected among contact and index cases in the same kindergarten. These findings confirm the benefit of molecular genetic assays to acquire accurate data to support school closure policies designed to control HFMD infections.

The effectiveness of national-level containment and closure policies across income levels during the COVID-19 pandemic: an analysis of 113 countries.

Despite heterogeneity in income levels, countries implemented similarly strict containment and closure policies to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic. This research assesses the effectiveness of these containment and closure policies, which we defined as larger decreases in mobility and smaller COVID-19 case and death growth rates. Using daily data for 113 countries on mobility and cumulative COVID-19 case and death counts over the 130 days between February 15, 2020 and June 23, 2020, we examined changes in mobility, morbidity, and mortality growth rates across the World Bank’s income group classifications. Containment policies correlated with the largest declines in mobility in higher income countries. High-income countries also achieved lower COVID-19 case and death growth rates than low-income countries. This study finds better epidemiological outcomes of containment and closure policies for higher income countries than lower income countries. These findings urge policymakers to consider contextual differences, including levels of economic activity and the structure of the economy, when crafting policies in response to public health emergencies.

Exploring Turkish parents’ lived experiences on online science lessons of their children with mild intellectual disability amid the COVID-19 pandemic

Background: The purpose of this qualitative study was to explore Turkish parents’ lived experiences on online science lessons of their children with mild intellectual disability amid COVID-19 pandemic. Method: This study used the phenomenological qualitative research design. Participants in this study were 16 parents, who have children with mild intellectual disability and participated in one-on-one semi-structured phone calls. Interview data were thematically analyzed. Result: Five overarching themes were found: (1) parents’ general experiences on online science lessons, (2) advantages of online science lessons, (3) disadvantages of online science lessons, (4) barriers in online science lessons, and (5) parents’ recommendations for online science lessons. Conclusion: The results revealed that the majority of parents agreed on the school closure policy due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but were not satisfied with the online science lessons, and focused on the disadvantages of online science lessons for their children with mild intellectual disability.

Effects from containment and closure policies to market quality: Do they really matter in Vietnam during Covid-19?

During the Covid-19 pandemic, the Vietnamese government has actively implemented various policies to achieve dual objectives: (i) to minimize the loss of life due to the infection; and (ii) to support economic growth. This paper is conducted to examine the effect of the government’s containment and closure policy on the stock market quality in Vietnam. Unlike other papers, we focus exclusively on market quality during the pandemic. We find that the policies appear to positively affect the market quality, except for closing-school policy (negative effect) and international travel (no effect). We argue that the government should sustain the policies until the wide availability of the vaccine to support the stock market quality in the near future.

Using a hybrid agent-based and equation based model to test school closure policies during a measles outbreak

BackgroundIn order to be prepared for an infectious disease outbreak it is important to know what interventions will or will not have an impact on reducing the outbreak. While some interventions might have a greater effect in mitigating an outbreak, others might only have a minor effect but all interventions will have a cost in implementation. Estimating the effectiveness of an intervention can be done using computational modelling. In particular, comparing the results of model runs with an intervention in place to control runs where no interventions were used can help to determine what interventions will have the greatest effect on an outbreak.MethodsTo test the effects of a school closure policy on the spread of an infectious disease (in this case measles) we run simulations closing schools based on either the proximity of the town to the initial outbreak or the centrality of the town within the network of towns in the simulation. To do this we use a hybrid model that combines an agent-based model with an equation-based model. In our analysis, we use three measures to compare the effects of different intervention strategies: the total number of model runs leading to an outbreak, the total number of infected agents, and the geographic spread of outbreaks.ResultsOur results show that closing down the schools in the town where an outbreak begins and the town with the highest in degree centrality provides the largest reduction in percent of runs leading to an outbreak as well as a reduction in the geographic spread of the outbreak compared to only closing down the town where the outbreak begins. Although closing down schools in the town with the closest proximity to the town where the outbreak begins also provides a reduction in the chance of an outbreak, we do not find the reduction to be as large as when the schools in the high in degree centrality town are closed.ConclusionsThus we believe that focusing on high in degree centrality towns during an outbreak is important in reducing the overall size of an outbreak.

Investigating the effect of national government physical distancing measures on depression and anxiety during the COVID-19 pandemic through meta-analysis and meta-regression.

COVID-19 physical distancing measures can potentially increase the likelihood of mental disorders. It is unknown whether these measures are associated with depression and anxiety. To investigate meta-analytic global levels of depression and anxiety during the COVID-19 pandemic and how the implementation of mitigation strategies (i.e. public transportation closures, stay-at-home orders, etc.) impacted such disorders. PubMed, MEDLINE, Web of Science, BIOSIS Citation Index, Current Content Connect, PsycINFO, CINAHL, medRxiv, and PsyArXiv databases for depression and anxiety prevalences; Oxford Covid-19 Government Response Tracker for the containment and closure policies indexes; Global Burden of Disease Study for previous levels of depression and anxiety. Original studies conducted during COVID-19 pandemic, which assessed categorical depression and anxiety, using PHQ-9 and GAD-7 scales (cutoff ⩾10). General population, healthcare providers, students, and patients. National physical distancing measures. Meta-analysis and meta-regression. In total, 226 638 individuals were assessed within the 60 included studies. Global prevalence of both depression and anxiety during the COVID-19 pandemic was 24.0% and 21.3%, respectively. There were differences in the prevalence of both anxiety and depression reported across regions and countries. Asia (17.6% and 17.9%), and China (16.2% and 15.5%) especially, had the lowest prevalence of both disorders. Regarding the impact of mitigation strategies on mental health, only public transportation closures increased the prevalence of anxiety, especially in Europe. Country-level data on physical distancing measures and previous anxiety/depression may not necessarily reflect local (i.e. city-specific) contexts. Mental health concerns should not be viewed only as a delayed consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic, but also as a concurrent epidemic. Our data provide support for policy-makers to consider real-time enhanced mental health services, and increase initiatives to foster positive mental health outcomes.

Effects of containment and closure policies on controlling the COVID-19 pandemic in East Asia.

Growing efforts have been made to pool coronavirus data and control measures from countries and regions to compare the effectiveness of government policies. We examine whether these strategies can explain East Asia’s effective control of the COVID‐19 pandemic based on time‐series data with cross‐correlations between the Stringency Index and number of confirmed cases during the early period of outbreaks. We suggest that multidisciplinary empirical research in healthcare and social sciences, personality, and social psychology is needed for a clear understanding of how cultural values, social norms, and individual predispositions interact with policy to affect life‐saving behavioural changes in different societies.

The origin and early spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Europe

The investigation of migratory patterns during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic before spring 2020 border closures in Europe is a crucial first step toward an in-depth evaluation of border closure policies. Here we analyze viral genome sequences using a phylodynamic model with geographic structure to estimate the origin and spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Europe prior to border closures. Based on SARS-CoV-2 genomes, we reconstruct a partial transmission tree of the early pandemic and coinfer the geographic location of ancestral lineages as well as the number of migration events into and between European regions. We find that the predominant lineage spreading in Europe during this time has a most recent common ancestor in Italy and was probably seeded by a transmission event in either Hubei, China or Germany. We do not find evidence for preferential migration paths from Hubei into different European regions or from each European region to the others. Sustained local transmission is first evident in Italy and then shortly thereafter in the other European regions considered. Before the first border closures in Europe, we estimate that the rate of occurrence of new cases from within-country transmission was within the bounds of the estimated rate of new cases from migration. In summary, our analysis offers a view on the early state of the epidemic in Europe and on migration patterns of the virus before border closures. This information will enable further study of the necessity and timeliness of border closures.

The effect of state-level social distancing policy stringency on mobility in the states of Brazil

Abstract In Brazil, sub-national governments have played a particularly important role as the key actors implementing non-pharmaceutical interventions to halt the spread of COVID-19. Building on the methodology proposed by the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT), we coded the stringency levels of state-level school, commerce, services, industry, public gathering, and private event closure policies and describe these actions’ duration at the state-level in Brazil from early February to mid-May 2020. Our results suggest significant heterogeneity across Brazil and across weeks in social distancing policy stringency during this period. We then apply dynamic times-series cross-sectional methods to evaluate the effect of anti-contagion policies on the population’s mobility using cell phone location data. We find that anti-contagion policies had a significant effect on producing higher adherence to remaining at home even though social distancing policies were relatively moderate as compared to other countries. Our results also suggest that social distancing policies have a greater impact when a more complete and coherent set of policies were introduced and sustained by state governments.