Sample Size In Clinical Trials Research Articles

Standardized image post-processing of cardiovascular magnetic resonance T1-mapping reduces variability and improves accuracy and consistency in myocardial tissue characterization

BackgroundMyocardial T1-mapping is increasingly used in multicentre studies and trials. Inconsistent image analysis introduces variability, hinders differentiation of diseases, and results in larger sample sizes. We present a systematic approach to standardize T1-map analysis by human operators to improve accuracy and consistency. MethodsWe developed a multi-step training program for T1-map post-processing. The training dataset contained 42 left ventricular (LV) short-axis T1-maps (normal and diseases; 1.5 and 3 Tesla). Contours drawn by two experienced human operators served as reference for myocardial T1 and wall thickness (WT). Trainees (n = 26) underwent training and were evaluated by: (a) qualitative review of contours; (b) quantitative comparison with reference T1 and WT. ResultsThe mean absolute difference between reference operators was 8.4 ± 6.3 ms (T1) and 1.2 ± 0.7 pixels (WT). Trainees' mean discrepancy from reference in T1 improved significantly post-training (from 8.1 ± 2.4 to 6.7 ± 1.4 ms; p < 0.001), with a 43% reduction in standard deviation (SD) (p = 0.035). WT also improved significantly post-training (from 0.9 ± 0.4 to 0.7 ± 0.2 pixels, p = 0.036), with 47% reduction in SD (p = 0.04). These experimentally-derived thresholds served to guide the training process: T1 (±8 ms) and WT (±1 pixel) from reference. ConclusionA standardized approach to CMR T1-map image post-processing leads to significant improvements in the accuracy and consistency of LV myocardial T1 values and wall thickness. Improving consistency between operators can translate into 33–72% reduction in clinical trial sample-sizes. This work may: (a) serve as a basis for re-certification for core-lab operators; (b) translate to sample-size reductions for clinical studies; (c) produce better-quality training datasets for machine learning.

Future Perspectives for the Treatment of Diabetes: Importance of a Regulatory Framework.

The number of diabetes patients is steadily increasing worldwide. Consequently, the social burden of diabetes is huge, requiring urgent countermeasures. We performed an intensive survey of antidiabetic drugs approved in Japan, the United States, and the European Union. Information about approved antidiabetic drugs was obtained by searching databases of regulatory authorities in the 3 regions. Other relevant information was also obtained from publicly available literature and documents. No difference in the total number and types of approved drugs among the 3 regions was found (P = .173 by log-rank test). However, the numbers of approved dipeptidyl peptidase-4 and sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors in Japan were almost double of those in the other regions. The average sample size in clinical trials used for antidiabetic drug approval in Japan (1134 patients) was much smaller than that in the other regions (P < .001 by analysis of variance repeated measures test adjusted by the Holm method). Currently, 6 drugs with known modes of action are being developed for type 1 diabetes in Japan, whereas at the end of 2016, nearly 7-fold more products with novel modes of action were in clinical development in the United States. Antidiabetic drug development in Japan costs less than that in the other regions, although novel development is less active because of regulatory differences. To achieve better pharmacotherapy for diabetes, the regulatory framework requires careful consideration.

Sample sizes and statistical methods in interventional studies on individuals with spinal cord injury: A systematic review.

AimPrevalence and incidence of spinal cord injury (SCI) are low. However, sample sizes have not been systematically examined yet, although this might represent useful information for study planning and power considerations. Therefore, our objective was to determine the median sample size in clinical trials on SCI individuals. Moreover, within small‐sample size studies, statistical methods and awareness of potential problems regarding small samples were examined.MethodsWe systematically reviewed all studies on human SCI individuals published between 2014 and 2015, where the effect of an intervention on one or more health‐related outcomes was assessed by means of a hypothesis test. If at least one group had a size <20, the study was classified as a small sample size study. PubMed was searched for eligible studies; subsequently, data on sample sizes and statistical methods were extracted and summarized descriptively.ResultsOut of 8897 studies 207 were included. Median total sample size was 18 (range 4‐582). Small sample sizes were found in 167/207 (81%) studies, resulting limitations and implications for statistical analyses were mentioned in 109/167 (65%) studies.ConclusionsAlthough most recent SCI trials have been conducted with small samples, the consequences on statistical analysis methods and the validity of the results are rarely acknowledged.

Anti-vascular endothelial growth factor for neovascular age-related macular degeneration.

Anti-vascular endothelial growth factor for neovascular age-related macular degeneration.

A practical approach to sample size calculation for fixed populations.

Researchers routinely compute desired sample sizes of clinical trials to control type-i and type-ii errors. While for many experimental designs sample size calculations are well-known, it remains an active area of research. Work in this area focusses predominantly on controlling properties of the trial. In this paper we provide ready-to-use methods to compute sample sizes using an alternative objective, namely that of maximizing the outcome for a whole population. Considering the expected outcome of both the trial, and the resulting guideline, we formulate and numerically analyze the expected value of the entire allocation procedure. Our approach strongly relates to theoretical work presented in the 60's which demonstrated the effectiveness of allocation procedures that incorporate population sizes when planning experiments over designs that focus solely on error rates within the trial. We add to this work by a) extending to alternative designs (mean comparisons not assuming equal variances and comparisons of proportions), b) providing easy-to-use software to compute sample sizes for multiple experimental designs, and c) presenting numerical analysis that demonstrate the efficiency of the suggested approach.

Central Slab versus Whole Brain to Measure Brain Atrophy in Multiple Sclerosis

Background: Structural Image Evaluation using Normalization of Atrophy (SIENA) is used to measure brain atrophy in multiple sclerosis (MS). However, brain extraction is prone to artefacts in the upper and lower parts of the brain. To overcome these shortcomings, some pivotal MS trials used a central slab instead of the whole brain as input for SIENA. The aim of this study was to compare the internal consistency and statistical dispersion of atrophy measures, associations with clinical outcomes and required sample sizes in clinical trials between these two approaches. Methods: Brain volume change was assessed using SIENA in 119 MS patients with 5-years follow-up on 3D T1-weighted Magnetization Prepared Rapid Gradient Echo datasets using the whole brain or a central slab ranging from –10 to +60 mm Montreal Neurological Institute atlas coordinates. The statistical analysis included the quartile coefficient of dispersion, partial correlations with clinical outcomes and sample size calculations. Clinical outcome measures comprised the Expanded Disability Status Scale, MS Functional Composite and Symbol Digit Modalities Test. Results: Annualized brain atrophy rates were higher using central slab than whole brain as input for SIENA (–0.51 ± 0.49 vs. –0.37 ± 0.39% per year, p < 0.001). Central and whole brain volume change showed comparable statistical dispersion and similarly correlated with clinical outcomes at 5-years follow-up. Sample size calculations estimated 14% fewer patients required to detect a given treatment effect when using the central slab instead of the whole brain option in SIENA. Conclusion: Central slab and whole brain SIENA produced comparable statistical dispersion with similar associations to clinical outcomes.

Deformation based morphometry study of longitudinal MRI changes in behavioral variant frontotemporal dementia.

To objectively quantify how cerebral volume loss could assist with clinical diagnosis and clinical trial design in the behavioural variant of frontotemporal dementia (bvFTD). We applied deformation-based morphometric analyses with robust registration to precisely quantify the magnitude and pattern of atrophy in patients with bvFTD as compared to cognitively normal controls (CNCs), to assess the progression of atrophy over one year follow up and to generate clinical trial sample size estimates to detect differences for the structures most sensitive to change. This study included 203 subjects - 70 bvFTD and 133 CNCs - with a total of 482 timepoints from the Frontotemporal Lobar Degeneration Neuroimaging Initiative. Deformation based morphometry (DBM) revealed significant atrophy in the frontal lobes, insula, medial and anterior temporal regions bilaterally in bvFTD subjects compared to controls with outstanding subcortical involvement. We provide detailed information on regional changes per year. In both cross-sectional analysis and over a one-year follow-up period, ventricle expansion was the most prominent differentiator of bvFTD from controls and a sensitive marker of disease progression. Automated measurement of ventricular expansion is a sensitive and reliable marker of disease progression in bvFTD to be used in clinical trials for potential disease modifying drugs, as well as possibly to implement in clinical practice. Ventricular expansion measured with DBM provides the lowest published estimated sample size for clinical trial design to detect significant differences over one and two years.

Determining clinically important differences in health-related quality of life in older patients with cancer undergoing chemotherapy or surgery.

Using the EORTC Global Health Status (GHS) scale, we aimed to determine minimal clinically important differences (MCID) in health-related quality of life (HRQOL) changes for older cancer patients with a geriatric risk profile, as defined by the geriatric 8 (G8) health screening tool, undergoing treatment. Simultaneously, we assessed baseline patient characteristics prognostic for HRQOL changes. Our analysis included 1424 (G8 ≤ 14) older patients with cancer scheduled to receive chemotherapy (n = 683) or surgery (n = 741). Anchor-based methods, linking the GHS score to clinical indicators, were used to determine MCID between baseline and follow-up at 3months. A threshold of 0.2 standard deviation (SD) was used to exclude MCID estimates too small for interpretation. Logistic regressions analysed baseline patient characteristics prognostic for HRQOL changes. The 15-item Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS15), Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) for Fatigue and ECOG Performance Status (PS) were selected as clinical anchors. In the surgery group, MCID estimates for improvement and deterioration were ECOG PS (5*, 11*), GDS15 (5*, 2) and VAS Fatigue (3, 9*). In the chemotherapy group, MCID estimates for improvement and deterioration were ECOG PS (8*, 7*), GDS15 (5, 4) and VAS Fatigue (5, 5*). Estimates with * were > 0.2 SD threshold. Patients experiencing pain or malnutrition (surgery group) or fatigue (chemotherapy group) at baseline showed a significantly stable or improved HRQOL (p < 0.05) after their treatment. The reported MCID for improvement and deterioration depended on the anchor used and treatment received. The estimates can be used to evaluate significant changes in HRQOL and to determine sample sizes in clinical trials.

Recent advances in understanding dominant spinocerebellar ataxias from clinical and genetic points of view.

Spinocerebellar ataxias (SCAs) are rare types of cerebellar ataxia with a dominant mode of inheritance. To date, 47 SCA subtypes have been identified, and the number of genes implicated in SCAs is continually increasing. Polyglutamine (polyQ) expansion diseases ( ATXN1/SCA1, ATXN2/SCA2, ATXN3/SCA3, CACNA1A/SCA6, ATXN7/SCA7, TBP/SCA17, and ATN1/DRPLA) are the most common group of SCAs. No preventive or curative treatments are currently available, but various therapeutic approaches, including RNA-targeting treatments, such as antisense oligonucleotides (ASOs), are being developed. Clinical trials of ASOs in SCA patients are already planned. There is, therefore, a need to identify valid outcome measures for such studies. In this review, we describe recent advances towards identifying appropriate biomarkers, which are essential for monitoring disease progression and treatment efficacy. Neuroimaging biomarkers are the most powerful markers identified to date, making it possible to reduce sample sizes for clinical trials. Changes on brain MRI are already evident at the premanifest stage in SCA1 and SCA2 carriers and are correlated with CAG repeat size. Other potential biomarkers have also been developed, based on neurological examination, oculomotor study, cognitive assessment, and blood and cerebrospinal fluid analysis. Longitudinal studies based on multimodal approaches are required to establish the relationships between parameters and to validate the biomarkers identified.

On the Sample Size of Clinical Trials - Revisited.

On the Sample Size of Clinical Trials - Revisited.

Single scan quantitative gradient recalled echo MRI for evaluation of tissue damage in lesions and normal appearing gray and white matter in multiple sclerosis.

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic disease affecting the human central nervous system (CNS) and leading to neurologic disability. Although conventional MRI techniques can readily detect focal white matter (WM) lesions, it remains challenging to quantify tissue damage in normal-appearing gray matter (GM) and WM. To demonstrate that a new MRI biomarker, R2t*, can provide quantitative analysis of tissue damage across the brain in MS patients in a single scan. Prospective. Forty-four MS patients and 19 healthy controls (HC). 3T, quantitative gradient-recalled-echo (qGRE), Magnetization-prepared rapid gradient-echo, fluid-attenuated inversion recovery. Severity of tissue damage was assessed by reduced R2t*. Tissue atrophy was assessed by cortical thickness and cervical spinal cord cross-sectional area (CSA). Multiple Sclerosis Functional Composite was used for clinical assessment. R2t* in cortical GM was more sensitive to MS damage than cortical atrophy. Using more than two standard deviations (SD) reduction versus age-matched HC as the cutoff, 48% of MS patients showed lower R2t*, versus only 9% with lower cortical thickness. Significant correlations between severities of tissue injury were identified among 1) upper cervical cord and several cortical regions, including motor cortex (P < 0.001), and 2) adjacent regions of GM and subcortical WM (P < 0.001). R2t*-defined tissue cellular damage in cortical GM was greater relative to adjacent WM. Reductions in cortical R2t* correlated with cognitive impairment (P < 0.01). Motor-related clinical signs correlated most with cervical cord CSA (P < 0.001). Reductions in R2t* within cortical GM was more sensitive to tissue damage than atrophy, potentially allowing a reduced sample size in clinical trials. R2t* together with structural morphometry suggested topographic patterns of regions showing correlated tissue damage throughout the brain and the cervical spinal cord of MS patients. 2 Technical Efficacy: Stage 3 J. Magn. Reson. Imaging 2019;49:487-498.

On the sample size of clinical trials.

On the sample size of clinical trials.

Evaluation of the extent of adaptation to sample size in clinical trials for cardiovascular and CNS diseases

A planned adaptation to sample size in an ongoing trial aims at providing an opportunity to modify design assumptions made at the trial planning stage. Reassessment of sample size in an ongoing trial may be performed in a non-comparative or a comparative fashion, either with or without use of external data that surface. We review the completed new drug applications (NDAs) and biologic license applications (BLAs) submitted since 2000 to cardio-renal, neurology and psychiatry drug products divisions of Center for Drug Evaluation and Research, U.S. Food and Drug Administration. Interestingly, it was found that the maximal sample size increase across the identified confirmatory clinical trials was less than 2-fold the originally planned sample size. Additionally, as a result of sample size increase, precision in treatment effect estimation was often improved for the primary endpoint and the key secondary endpoints.

Association of Bariatric Surgery Using Laparoscopic Banding, Roux-en-Y Gastric Bypass, or Laparoscopic Sleeve Gastrectomy vs Usual Care Obesity Management With All-Cause Mortality

Bariatric surgery is an effective and safe approach for weight loss and short-term improvement in metabolic disorders such as diabetes. However, studies have been limited in most settings by lack of a nonsurgical group, losses to follow-up, missing data, and small sample sizes in clinical trials and observational studies. To assess the association of 3 common types of bariatric surgery compared with nonsurgical treatment with mortality and other clinical outcomes among obese patients. Retrospective cohort study in a large Israeli integrated health fund covering 54% of Israeli citizens with less than 1% turnover of members annually. Obese adult patients who underwent bariatric surgery between January 1, 2005, and December 31, 2014, were selected and compared with obese nonsurgical patients matched on age, sex, body mass index (BMI), and diabetes, with a final follow-up date of December 31, 2015. A total of 33 540 patients were included in this study. Bariatric surgery (laparoscopic banding, Roux-en-Y gastric bypass, or laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy) or usual care obesity management only (provided by a primary care physician and which may include dietary counseling and behavior modification). The primary outcome, all-cause mortality, matched and adjusted for BMI prior to surgery, age, sex, socioeconomic status, diabetes, hyperlipidemia, hypertension, cardiovascular disease, and smoking. The study population included 8385 patients who underwent bariatric surgery (median age, 46 [IQR, 37-54] years; 5490 [65.5%] women; baseline median BMI, 40.6 [IQR, 38.5-43.7]; laparoscopic banding [n = 3635], gastric bypass [n = 1388], laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy [n = 3362], and 25 155 nonsurgical matched patients (median age, 46 [IQR, 37-54] years; 16 470 [65.5%] women; baseline median BMI, 40.5 [IQR, 37.0-43.5]). The availability of follow-up data was 100% for all-cause mortality. There were 105 deaths (1.3%) among surgical patients during a median follow-up of 4.3 (IQR, 2.8-6.6) years (including 61 [1.7%] who underwent laparoscopic banding, 18 [1.3%] gastric bypass, and 26 [0.8%] sleeve gastrectomy), and 583 deaths (2.3%) among nonsurgical patients during a median follow-up of 4.0 (IQR, 2.6-6.2) years. The absolute difference was 2.51 (95% CI, 1.86-3.15) fewer deaths/1000 person-years in the surgical vs nonsurgical group. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for mortality among nonsurgical vs surgical patients were 2.02 (95% CI, 1.63-2.52) for the entire study population; by surgical type, HRs were 2.01 (95% CI, 1.50-2.69) for laparoscopic banding, 2.65 (95% CI, 1.55-4.52) for gastric bypass, and 1.60 (95% CI, 1.02-2.51) for laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy. Among obese patients in a large integrated health fund in Israel, bariatric surgery using laparoscopic banding, gastric bypass, or laparoscopic sleeve gastrectomy, compared with usual care nonsurgical obesity management, was associated with lower all-cause mortality over a median follow-up of approximately 4.5 years. The evidence of this association adds to the limited literature describing beneficial outcomes of these 3 types of bariatric surgery compared with usual care obesity management alone.

Novel joint selection methods can reduce sample size for rheumatoid arthritis clinical trials with ultrasound endpoints.

To determine whether novel methods of selecting joints through (i) ultrasonography (individualized-ultrasound [IUS] method), or (ii) ultrasonography and clinical examination (individualized-composite-ultrasound [ICUS] method) translate into smaller rheumatoid arthritis (RA) clinical trial sample sizes when compared to existing methods utilizing predetermined joint sites for ultrasonography. Cohen's effect size (ES) was estimated (ES^) and a 95% CI (ES^L, ES^U) calculated on a mean change in 3-month total inflammatory score for each method. Corresponding 95% CIs [nL(ES^U), nU(ES^L)] were obtained on a post hoc sample size reflecting the uncertainty in ES^. Sample size calculations were based on a one-sample t-test as the patient numbers needed to provide 80% power at α = 0.05 to reject a null hypothesis H0 : ES = 0 versus alternative hypotheses H1 : ES = ES^, ES = ES^L and ES = ES^U. We aimed to provide point and interval estimates on projected sample sizes for future studies reflecting the uncertainty in our study ES^S. Twenty-four treated RA patients were followed up for 3 months. Utilizing the 12-joint approach and existing methods, the post hoc sample size (95% CI) was 22 (10-245). Corresponding sample sizes using ICUS and IUS were 11 (7-40) and 11 (6-38), respectively. Utilizing a seven-joint approach, the corresponding sample sizes using ICUS and IUS methods were nine (6-24) and 11 (6-35), respectively. Our pilot study suggests that sample size for RA clinical trials with ultrasound endpoints may be reduced using the novel methods, providing justification for larger studies to confirm these observations.

Present Uses, Future Applications, and Technical Underpinnings of Electrical Impedance Myography.

In this article, we provide an overview of electrical impedance myography (EIM), including its technical and theoretical basis, a summary of its varied applications, and ongoing developments. EIM has been used as a disease severity biomarker in a variety of disorders affecting the muscle, ranging from amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) to muscular dystrophies to disuse atrophy due to the weightlessness of space. In ALS, studies have demonstrated that major reductions in sample size in clinical trials can be achieved. Similarly, in the Duchenne muscular dystrophy, the technique tracks disease progression and is sensitive to the beneficial effect of steroids. More basic work has demonstrated that EIM can provide a non-invasive means of tracking muscle fiber size. Ongoing innovations include the development of techniques for assessing muscle contraction. EIM is gradually being adopted as a useful, practical, and convenient tool for the assessment of neuromuscular conditions.

Design optimization for clinical trials in early-stage manifest Huntington's disease.

The purpose of this study was to inform the design of randomized clinical trials in early-stage manifest Huntington's disease through analysis of longitudinal data from TRACK-Huntington's Disease (TRACK-HD), a multicenter observational study. We compute sample sizes required for trials with candidate clinical, functional, and imaging outcomes, whose aims are to reduce rates of change. The calculations use a 2-stage approach: first using linear mixed models to estimate mean rates of change and components of variability from TRACK-HD data and second using these to predict sample sizes for a range of trial designs. For each outcome, the primary drivers of the required sample size were the anticipated treatment effect and the duration of treatment. Extending durations from 1 to 2 years yielded large sample size reductions. Including interim visits and incorporating stratified randomization on predictors of outcome together with covariate adjustment gave more modest, but nontrivial, benefits. Caudate atrophy, expressed as a percentage of its baseline, was the outcome that gave smallest required sample sizes. Here we consider potential required sample sizes for clinical trials estimated from naturalistic observation of longitudinal change. Choice among outcome measures for a trial must additionally consider their relevance to patients and the expected effect of the treatment under study. For all outcomes considered, our results provide compelling arguments for 2-year trials, and we also demonstrate the benefits of incorporating stratified randomization coupled with covariate adjustment, particularly for trials with caudate atrophy as the primary outcome. The benefits of enrichment are more debatable, with statistical benefits offset by potential recruitment difficulties and reduced generalizability. © 2017 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Quantitative assessment of airway dimensions in young children with cystic fibrosis lung disease using chest computed tomography

To evaluate lung disease progression using airway and artery (AA) dimensions on chest CT over 2-year interval in young CF patients longitudinally and compare to disease controls cross-sectionally. Retrospective analysis of pressure controlled end-inspiratory CTs, 12 routine baseline (CT1 ) and follow up (CT2 ) from AREST CF cohort; 12 disease controls with normal CT. All visible AA-pairs were measured perpendicular to the airway axis. Inner and outer airway diameters and wall (outer-inner radius) thickness were divided by adjacent arteries to compute Ain A-, Aout A-, and AWT A-ratios, respectively. Differences between CF and control data were assessed using mixed effects models predicting AA-ratios per segmental generation (SG). Power calculations were performed with 80% power and ɑ = 0.05. CF, median age CT1 2 years; CT2 3.9 years, 5 males. Controls, median age 2.9 years, 10 males. Total of 4798 AA-pairs measured. Cross-sectionally: Ain A-ratio showed no difference between controls and CF CT1 or CT2 . Aout A-ratio was significantly higher in CF CT1 (SG 2-4) and CT2 (SG 2-5) compared to controls. AWT A-ratio was increased for CF CT1 (SG 1-5) and CT2 (SG 2-6) compared to controls. CF longitudinally: Ain A-ratio was significantly higher at CT2 compared to CT1 . Increase in Aout A-ratio at CT2 compared to CT1 was visible in SG ≥4. Sample sizes of 21 and 58 would be necessary for 50% and 30% Aout A-ratio reductions, respectively, between CF CT2 and controls. AA-ratio differences were present in young CF patients relative to disease controls. Aout A-ratio as an objective parameter for bronchiectasis could reduce sample sizes for clinical trials.

The Application of Magnetic Resonance Imaging in Alzheimer's Disease

In Alzheimer's disease (AD), magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is essential for early diagnosis, differential diagnosis, and evaluation of disease progression. In structural MRI, the automatic diagnosis of atrophy by computers, even when it is not visually noticeable, is possible in daily clinical practice. Furthermore, subfield volumetric measurements of the medial temporal structures, as well as longitudinal volume measurements with high accuracy, have been developed and are useful for calculating the needed sample size in clinical trials. In addition to detecting local atrophy, graph theory has been applied to structural MRI for evaluation of alterations of the brain networks potentially affected in AD.

Evaluation of Pre-marketing Factors to Predict Post-marketing Boxed Warnings and Safety Withdrawals.

An important goal in drug regulation is understanding serious safety issues with new drugs as soon as possible. Achieving this goal requires us to understand whether information provided during the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) drug review can predict serious safety issues that are usually identified after the product is approved. However, research on this topic remains understudied. In this paper, we examine whether any pre-marketing drug characteristics are associated with serious post-marketing safety actions. We study this question using an internal FDA database containing every new small molecule drug submitted to the FDA's Center for Drug Evaluation and Research (CDER) on or after November 21, 1997, and approved and commercially launched before December 31, 2009. Serious post-marketing safety actions include whether these drugs ever experienced either a post-marketing boxed warning or a withdrawal from the market due to safety concerns. A random effects logistic regression model was used to test whether any pre-marketing characteristics were associated with either post-marketing safety action. A total of 219 new molecular entities were analyzed. Among these drugs, 11 experienced a safety withdrawal and 30 received boxed warnings by July 31, 2016. Contrary to prevailing hypotheses, we find that neither clinical trial sample sizes nor review time windows are associated with the addition of a post-marketing boxed warning or safety withdrawal. However, we do find that new drugs approved with either a boxed warning or priority review are more likely to experience post-marketing boxed warnings. Furthermore, drugs approved with boxed warnings tend to receive post-marketing boxed warnings resulting from new safety information that are unrelated to the original warning. Drugs approved with a boxed warning are 3.88 times more likely to receive a post-marketing boxed warning, while drugs approved with a priority review are 3.51 times more likely to receive a post-marketing boxed warning. Although drugs approved with a boxed warning or priority review are more likely to experience serious post-marketing safety events, other information provided during the FDA drug review that is easy to quantify is generally not associated with post-marketing safety events. It appears that these post-marketing events are not discernible during a pre-marketing review and therefore might not be avoidable using current review data.