Clinical Prediction Rule Research Articles

Development and application of a serious adverse events risk model for concurrent chemoradiotherapy in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma.

The objective of this study was to construct a concise prediction model for serious adverse events (SAEs) in order to assess the likelihood of SAE occurrence among hospitalized patients undergoing concurrent chemoradiotherapy. An electronic database of a Cancer Centre was utilized to conduct a cross-sectional review survey. Our research involved the recruitment of 239 patients who were undergoing concurrent chemoradiotherapy in the Department of Nasopharynx and Radiotherapy. The clinical prediction rule was derived using logistic regression analysis, with SAE serving as the primary outcome. Internal verification was conducted. The occurrence rate of SAE in the derivation cohort was 59.4%. The ultimate model used had 3 variables, namely cystatin C, C-reactive protein, and serum amyloid A. The model exhibited an area under the curve of 0.626 (95% CI: 0.555-0.696; P < .001). The model accurately predicts the occurrence of SAE, and the variable data can be easily obtained, and the assessment technique is straightforward.

Acute pulmonary embolism pretest probability estimation by d-dimer test, our modified, new ECG score and clinical prediction rules

ObjectivesWe investigated whether a sufficiently sensitive D-dimer test could exclude acute pulmonary embolism (acPE) as a stand-alone diagnostic test and compared our previously published, modified ECG score with the Wells and Geneva scores in the estimation of acPE pretest probability. MethodsWe retrospectively evaluated 345 patients who underwent chest CT angiography (CTA) for the suspicion of acPE. The pretest probability of acPE was assessed in 120 D-dimer negative [DD (−)] and 225 D-dimer positive [DD (+)] patients. ResultsChest CTA verified acPE in 57/345 (16.5 %) patients and in 1/120 (0.8 %) DD (−) patient. In DD (−) patients the test accuracy (TA) and specificity (SP) of the ECG score (98 %, 99 %) were better than those of the Wells score (92.5 %, 92.4 %) (p = 0.063 and p < 0.05 respectively) and the Geneva score (76.7 %, 76.5 %) (p < 0.001 for both), the Wells score TA and SP were greater than those of the Geneva score (p < 0.001 for both). In DD (+) patients the SPs, TAs and positive predictive values (PPV) of the ECG score (94 %, 78.6 %, 69 %) and the Wells score (91.8 %, 75.1 %, 48 %) were greater than those of the Geneva score (71.3 %, 64.9 %, 38.2 %) (p < 0.001 for both SP and TA respectively, and p < 0.001 for PPV of the ECG score vs. the Geneva score and p < 0.05 for PPV of the Wells score vs. Geneva score), their sensitivities (SE) (36.4 %, 23.6 %) were less than that of the Geneva score (47.5 %) (p < 0.05 and p < 0.001 respectively). The ECG score's TA in a trend, its SE and PPV were significantly (p < 0.01 and p < 0.001) better than those of the Wells score. ConclusionIn contrast to the current guidelines, a stand-alone high sensitivity DD (−) test, without prediction rules, could reliably exclude acPE. Our ECG score slightly outperformed the Wells score, the ECG score and Wells score far outperformed the Geneva score in the estimation of acPE pretest probability. An acPE diagnosis with the ECG score, in addition to the supportive diagnosis with the clinical prediction rules, may further increase the chance of true DD positivity.

Development and validation of a clinical prediction rule for walking independence in hospitalized older adults with a vertebral compression fracture.

No reports on factors or Clinical prediction rules (CPRs) associated with walking independence among patients with vertebral compression fractures (VCFs) are available. Evidence regarding epidemiological walking independence rates is also sparse. Here, we sought to (i) obtain epidemiological data on the probability of inpatients with VCFs achieving walking independence, and (ii) develop and validate a CPR to determine walking independence in hospitalized patients with VCFs. We conducted a retrospective cross-sectional observational study of patients aged ≥60years who were hospitalized for VCF at four hospitals in Japan in 2019-2022. The outcome was walking independence at discharge. We performed a binomial logistic regression analysis to assess predictors of walking independence. Five independent variables were entered: age, American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status, cognitive function, Berg Balance Scale (BBS), and 10-m walking test. Among the independent variables that were significant, we converted the continuous variables to binary data by calculating cut-off values and then created the CPR. The area under the curve (AUC) was calculated as the measure of the CPR's diagnostic accuracy, and internal validation was conducted by bootstrapping. Of the 240 patients, 188 (78.3%) achieved walking independence. Cognitive function and the BBS score (with a cut-off of 45 points) were identified as significant predictors. We created a CPR using these two items (0-2 points). The CPR's AUC was 0.92 (0.874-0.967), and internal validation by bootstrapping yielded a mean AUC of 0.919 with a slope of 0.965. The walking independence rate of patients with a VCF during hospitalization was 78.3%, with cognitive function and BBS being predictors. The developed CPR performed well enough to retrospectively predict walking independence in VCF patients. The BBS cut-off value and the CPR may serve as useful indicators for clinicians to predict VCF patients' walking independence.

Application of the Kaiser score on contrast-enhanced mammography in the differential diagnosis of breast lesions: comparison with breast magnetic resonance imaging.

The Kaiser score (KS) as a clinical decision rule has been proven capable of enhancing the diagnostic efficiency for suspicious breast lesions and obviating unnecessary benign biopsies. However, the consistency of KS in contrast-enhanced mammography (CEM-KS) and KS on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI-KS) is still unclear. This study aimed to evaluate and compare the diagnostic efficacy and agreement of CEM-KS and MRI-KS for suspicious breast lesions. This retrospective study included 207 patients from April 2019 to June 2022. The radiologists assigned a diagnostic category to all lesions using the Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS). Subsequently, they were asked to assign a final diagnostic category for each lesion according to the KS. The diagnostic performance was evaluated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The agreement in terms of the kinetic curve and the KS categories for CEM and MRI were evaluated via the Cohen kappa coefficient. The AUC was higher for the CEM-KS category assignment than for the CEM-BI-RADS category assignment (0.856 vs. 0.776; P=0.047). The AUC was higher for MRI-KS than for MRI-BI-RADS (0.841 vs. 0.752; P =0.015). The AUC of CEM-KS was not significantly different from that of MRI-KS (0.856 vs. 0.841; P=0.538). The difference between the AUCs for CEM-BI-RADS and MRI-BI-RADS was not statistically significant (0.776 vs. 0.752; P=0.400). The kappa agreement for the characterization of suspicious breast lesions using CEM-KS and MRI-KS was 0.885. The KS substantially improved the diagnostic performance of suspicious breast lesions, not only in MRI but also in CEM. CEM-KS and MRI-KS showed similar diagnostic performance and almost perfect agreement for the characterization of suspicious breast lesions. Therefore, CEM holds promise as an alternative when breast MRI is not available or contraindicated.

Clinical prediction model for pediatric lymphadenopathy: enhancing diagnostic precision and treatment decision making.

Lymph node enlargement is common in children, with 90% of physiologically palpable lymph nodes. This study aimed to develop a predictive model based on clinical characteristics to enhance the diagnosis of pediatric lymphadenopathy and provide insights into biopsy outcomes. A clinical prediction rule was developed using a retrospective, cross-sectional design for patients under 15years who underwent lymph node biopsy from 2012 to 2022. Multivariable risk regression was used to analyze benign and malignant lesions, presenting results through risk difference and AUROC for each group. Predicted probabilities were applied in a logistic regression equation to classify patients' lymphadenopathy as reactive hyperplasia, benign, or malignant. Of 188 children, 70 (37.2%) had benign lymphadenopathy beyond reactive hyperplasia, and 27 (14.4%) had malignant lymphadenopathy. The predictive model included 12 characteristics such as size, location, duration, associated symptoms, and lymph node examination. Predictive accuracy was 92.2% for benign cases (AUROC = 0.92; 95% CI 0.87-0.96) and 98.6% for malignancy (AUROC = 0.98; 95% CI 0.94-0.99). Overall accuracy for predicting both benign and malignant tumors was 68.3%. The model demonstrated reasonably accurate predictions for the clinical characteristics of pediatric lymphadenopathy. It tended to overestimate malignancy but did not miss diagnoses, aiding in reducing unnecessary lymph node biopsies in benign cases.

Relationship between the HeartMate Risk Score category on admission and outcome in patients with acute heart failure referred to a cardiac intensive care unit.

The HeartMate Risk Score (HMRS), a simple clinical prediction rule based on the patients' age, albumin, creatinine, and the international normalized ratio of the prothrombin time (PT-INR), is correlated with mortality in the cohort of left ventricular assist device (LVAD) recipients. However, in an aging society, an LAVD is indicated for only a small proportion of patients with acute heart failure (AHF), and whether the HMRS has prognostic implications for unselected patients with AHF is unknown. This study aimed to assess the prognostic value of HMRS categories on admission in patients with AHF. We analyzed 339 hospitalized patients with AHF who had albumin, creatinine, and the PT-INR recorded on admission. The patients were categorized as follows: the High group (HMRS > 2.48, n = 131), Mid group (HMRS of 1.58-2.48, n = 97) group, and Low group (HMRS < 1.58, n = 111). The endpoints of this study were all-cause death and readmission for heart failure (HF). During a median follow-up of 247days, 24 (18.3%) patients died in the High group, 7 (7.2%) died in the Mid group, and 8 (7.2%) died in the Low group. In a multivariable analysis adjusted for highly imbalanced baseline variables, a high HMRS was independently associated with survival, with a hazard ratio of 2.90 (95% confidence interval 1.42-5.96, P = 0.004). With regard to the composite endpoint of all-cause death and readmission for HF, the Mid group had a worse prognosis than the Low group, and the High group had the worst prognosis. A high HMRS on admission is associated with all-cause mortality and readmission for HF, and a mid-HMRS is associated with readmission for HF after AHF hospitalization. The HMRS may be a valid clinical tool to stratify the risk of adverse outcomes after hospitalization in unselected patients with AHF.

The Florida Geriatric Head Trauma CT Clinical Decision Rule.

Several clinical decision rules have been devised to guide head computed tomography (CT) use in patients with minor head injuries, but none have been validated in patients 65 years or older. We aimed to derive and validate a head injury clinical decision rule for older adults. We conducted a secondary analysis of an existing dataset of consecutive emergency department (ED) patients >65 years old with blunt head trauma. The main predictive outcomes were significant intracranial injury and Need for Neurosurgical Intervention on CT. The secondary outcomes also considered in the model development and validation were All Injuries and All Intracranial Injuries. Predictor variables were identified using multiple variable logistic regression, and clinical decision rule models were developed in a split-sample derivation cohort and then tested in an independent validation cohort. Of 5776 patients, 233 (4.0%) had significant intracranial injury and an additional 104 (1.8%) met CT criteria for Need for Neurosurgical Intervention. The best performing model, the Florida Geriatric Head Trauma CT Clinical Decision Rule, assigns points based on several clinical variables. If the points totaled 25 or more, a CT scan is indicated. The included predictors were arrival via Emergency Medical Services (+30 points), Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) <15 (+20 points), GCS <14 (+50 points), antiplatelet medications (+17 points), loss of consciousness (+16 points), signs of basilar skull fracture (+50 points), and headache (+20 points). Utilizing this clinical decision rule in the validation cohort, a point total ≥25 had a sensitivity and specificity of 100.0% (95% CI: 96.0-100) and 12.3% (95% CI: 10.9-13.8), respectively, for significant intracranial injury and Need for Neurosurgical Intervention. The Florida Geriatric Head Trauma CT Clinical Decision Rule has the potential to reduce unnecessary CT scans in older adults, without compromising safe emergency medicine practice.

PECARN prediction rule for cervical spine imaging of children presenting to the emergency department with blunt trauma: a multicentre prospective observational study.

Cervical spine injuries in children are uncommon but potentially devastating; however, indiscriminate neck imaging after trauma unnecessarily exposes children to ionising radiation. The aim of this study was to derive and validate a paediatric clinical prediction rule that can be incorporated into an algorithm to guide radiographic screening for cervical spine injury among children in the emergency department. In this prospective observational cohort study, we screened children aged 0-17 years presenting with known or suspected blunt trauma at 18 specialised children's emergency departments in hospitals in the USA affiliated with the Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Research Network (PECARN). Injured children were eligible for enrolment into derivation or validation cohorts by fulfilling one of the following criteria: transported from the scene of injury to the emergency department by emergency medical services; evaluated by a trauma team; and undergone neck imaging for concern for cervical spine injury either at or before arriving at the PECARN-affiliated emergency department. Children presenting with solely penetrating trauma were excluded. Before viewing an enrolled child's neck imaging results, the attending emergency department clinician completed a clinical examination and prospectively documented cervical spine injury risk factors in an electronic questionnaire. Cervical spine injuries were determined by imaging reports and telephone follow-up with guardians within 21-28 days of the emergency room encounter, and cervical spine injury was confirmed by a paediatric neurosurgeon. Factors associated with a high risk of cervical spine injury (>10%) were identified by bivariable Poisson regression with robust error estimates, and factors associated with non-negligible risk were identified by classification and regression tree (CART) analysis. Variables were combined in the cervical spine injury prediction rule. The primary outcome of interest was cervical spine injury within 28 days of initial trauma warranting inpatient observation or surgical intervention. Rule performance measures were calculated for both derivation and validation cohorts. A clinical care algorithm for determining which risk factors warrant radiographic screening for cervical spine injury after blunt trauma was applied to the study population to estimate the potential effect on reducing CT and x-ray use in the paediatric emergency department. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT05049330. Nine emergency departments participated in the derivation cohort, and nine participated in the validation cohort. In total, 22 430 children presenting with known or suspected blunt trauma were enrolled (11 857 children in the derivation cohort; 10 573 in the validation cohort). 433 (1·9%) of the total population had confirmed cervical spine injuries. The following factors were associated with a high risk of cervical spine injury: altered mental status (Glasgow Coma Scale [GCS] score of 3-8 or unresponsive on the Alert, Verbal, Pain, Unresponsive scale [AVPU] of consciousness); abnormal airway, breathing, or circulation findings; and focal neurological deficits including paresthesia, numbness, or weakness. Of 928 in the derivation cohort presenting with at least one of these risk factors, 118 (12·7%) had cervical spine injury (risk ratio 8·9 [95% CI 7·1-11·2]). The following factors were associated with non-negligible risk of cervical spine injury by CART analysis: neck pain; altered mental status (GCS score of 9-14; verbal or pain on the AVPU; or other signs of altered mental status); substantial head injury; substantial torso injury; and midline neck tenderness. The high-risk and CART-derived factors combined and applied to the validation cohort performed with 94·3% (95% CI 90·7-97·9) sensitivity, 60·4% (59·4-61·3) specificity, and 99·9% (99·8-100·0) negative predictive value. Had the algorithm been applied to all participants to guide the use of imaging, we estimated the number of children having CT might have decreased from 3856 (17·2%) to 1549 (6·9%) of 22 430 children without increasing the number of children getting plain x-rays. Incorporated into a clinical algorithm, the cervical spine injury prediction rule showed strong potential for aiding clinicians in determining which children arriving in the emergency department after blunt trauma should undergo radiographic neck imaging for potential cervical spine injury. Implementation of the clinical algorithm could decrease use of unnecessary radiographic testing in the emergency department and eliminate high-risk radiation exposure. Future work should validate the prediction rule and care algorithm in more general settings such as community emergency departments. The Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development and the Health Resources and Services Administration of the US Department of Health and Human Services in the Maternal and Child Health Bureau under the Emergency Medical Services for Children programme.

Derivation of the Quebec Brain Injury Categories for complicated mild traumatic brain injuries.

Approximately 10% of patients with mild traumatic brain injury (TBI) present with intracranial bleeding, and only 3.5% eventually require neurosurgical intervention, which often necessitates interhospital transfer. Better guidelines and recommendations are needed to manage complicated mild TBI in the emergency department (ED). The main objective of this study was to derive a clinical decision rule, the Quebec Brain Injury Categories (QueBIC), to predict the risk of adverse outcomes for complicated mild TBI in the ED. The secondary objective was to compare the QueBIC's performance with those of other existing guidelines. The authors conducted a retrospective multicenter cohort study in 3 level I trauma centers. Consecutive patients with complicated mild TBI (Glasgow Coma Scale [GCS] score 13-15) who were aged ≥ 16 years were included. The primary outcome was a combination of neurosurgical intervention, mild TBI-related death, and clinical deterioration. Statistical analyses included set covering machine analyses. In total, 477 patients were included in the study. The mean age was 62.9 years, and 68.1% were male. The algorithm classified patients into three risk categories (low, moderate, and high risk). The high-risk group (128 patients) (subdural hemorrhage [SDH] width > 7 mm or any midline shift) presented a sensitivity of 84% (95% CI 71%-93%) and a specificity of 80% (95% CI 76%-84%) to detect neurosurgical intervention and mild TBI-related death, leaving 8 undetected cases. Patients in the moderate-risk group (169 patients) had at least 1 variable: SDH width > 4 mm, initial GCS score ≤ 14, > 1 intraparenchymal hemorrhage, or intraparenchymal hemorrhage width > 4 mm. The combined QueBIC high- and moderate-risk category had a sensitivity of 100% (95% CI 63%-100%) and a specificity of 53% (95% CI 47%-58%) to detect mild TBI-related death or neurosurgical intervention. The sensitivity and specificity values for clinical deterioration when no death or neurosurgical intervention occurred were 81% (95% CI 64%-93%) and 44% (95% CI 39%-49%), respectively. The remaining 180 patients (37.7%) did not meet any high-risk or moderate-risk criteria and were considered low risk. None had neurosurgical intervention or mild TBI-related death. Only 6 (3.3%) low-risk patients showed clinical deterioration. QueBIC is a safe and effective tool to guide the management of patients presenting to the ED with complicated mild TBI. It accurately identifies patients at low risk for specialized neurotrauma or neurosurgical care. Further validation is required before its use in EDs.

Clinical Prediction Rules for In-Hospital Mortality Outcome in Melioidosis Patients.

Melioidosis, a disease induced by Burkholderia pseudomallei, poses a significant health threat in tropical areas where it is endemic. Despite the availability of effective treatments, mortality rates remain notably elevated. Many risk factors are associated with mortality. This study aims to develop a scoring system for predicting the in-hospital mortality from melioidosis using readily available clinical data. The data were collected from Surin Hospital, Surin, Thailand, during the period from April 2014 to March 2017. We included patients aged 15 years and above who had cultures that tested positive for Burkholderia pseudomallei. The clinical prediction rules were developed using significant risk factors from the multivariable analysis. A total of 282 patients with melioidosis were included in this study. In the final analysis model, 251 patients were used for identifying the significant risk factors of in-hospital fatal melioidosis. Five factors were identified and used for developing the clinical prediction rules, and the factors were as follows: qSOFA ≥ 2 (odds ratio [OR] = 2.39, p= 0.025), abnormal chest X-ray findings (OR = 5.86, p < 0.001), creatinine ≥ 1.5 mg/dL (OR = 2.80, p = 0.004), aspartate aminotransferase ≥50 U/L (OR = 4.032, p < 0.001), and bicarbonate ≤ 20 mEq/L (OR = 2.96, p = 0.002). The prediction scores ranged from 0 to 7. Patients with high scores (4-7) exhibited a significantly elevated mortality rate exceeding 65.0% (likelihood ratio [LR+] 2.18, p < 0.001) compared to the low-risk group (scores 0-3) with a lower mortality rate (LR + 0.18, p < 0.001). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.84, indicating good model performance. This study presents a simple scoring system based on easily obtainable clinical parameters to predict in-hospital mortality in melioidosis patients. This tool may facilitate the early identification of high-risk patients who could benefit from more aggressive treatment strategies, potentially improving clinical decision-making and patient outcomes.

Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) Curves: The Basics and Beyond.

Diagnostic tests and clinical prediction rules are frequently used to help estimate the probability of a disease or outcome. How well a test or rule distinguishes between disease or no disease (discrimination) can be measured by plotting a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calculating the area under it (AUROC). In this paper, we review the features of ROC curves and interpretation of ROC curves and AUROC values. We highlight 5 underappreciated features of ROC curves: (1) the slope of the ROC curve over a test result interval is the likelihood ratio for that interval; (2) the optimal cutoff for calling a test positive depends not only on the shape of the ROC curve, but also on the pretest probability of disease and relative harms of false-positive and false-negative results; (3) the AUROC measures discrimination only, not the accuracy of the predicted probabilities; (4) the AUROC is not a good measure of discrimination if the slope of the ROC curve is not consistently decreasing; and (5) the AUROC can be increased by including a large number of people correctly identified as being at very low risk for the outcome of interest. We illustrate this last concept using 3 published studies.

Traumatic Brain Injury in Patients under Anticoagulant Therapy: Review of Management in Emergency Department.

The best management of patients who suffer from traumatic brain injury (TBI) while on oral anticoagulants is one of the most disputed problems of emergency services. Indeed, guidelines, clinical decision rules, and observational studies addressing this topic are scarce and conflicting. Moreover, relevant issues such as the specific treatment (and even definition) of mild TBI, rate of delayed intracranial injury, indications for neurosurgery, and anticoagulant modulation are largely empiric. We reviewed the most recent evidence on these topics and explored other clinically relevant aspects, such as the promising role of dosing brain biomarkers, the strategies to assess the extent of anticoagulation, and the indications of reversals and tranexamic acid administration, in cases of mild TBI or as a bridge to neurosurgery. The appropriate timing of anticoagulant resumption was also discussed. Finally, we obtained an insight into the economic burden of TBI in patients on oral anticoagulants, and future directions on the management of this subpopulation of TBI patients were proposed. In this article, at the end of each section, a "take home message" is stated.

Age-Adjusted and Clinical Probability Adapted D-Dimer Cutoffs to Rule Out Pulmonary Embolism: A Narrative Review of Clinical Trials.

Diagnosis of pulmonary embolism remains a challenge for clinicians as its differential diagnosis is wide. The use of sequential diagnostic strategies based on the assessment of clinical probability, D-dimer measurement, and computed tomography pulmonary angiography have been validated in large prospective outcome studies. D-dimer measurement at a standard cutoff of 500 μg/L has gained wide acceptance to rule out pulmonary embolism in around 20 to 30% of patients with a clinically suspected pulmonary embolism. To improve the efficiency of D-dimer measurement, different ways of selecting a higher, albeit safe cutoff were explored: the age-adjusted D-dimer cutoff and the clinical adapted D-dimer cutoff. While both have been prospectively validated in large studies, some differences do exist. In particular, the prevalence of pulmonary embolism in these different validation studies was very different. Overall, the age-adjusted cutoff seems to be safer and less efficient, while the clinical probability adapted cutoff seems more efficient and less safe. Here, we report the available data regarding these two different ways to increase the diagnostic yield of D-dimer. Also, well beyond the accuracy of these adjusted/adapted cutoffs, some external factors, such as the prevalence of pulmonary embolism in the tested population and the clinical setting, have an important impact of the negative predictive value and on the overall efficiency of these cutoffs. Therefore, we also discuss which cutoff should be used according to the expected prevalence of the disease and according to the clinical setting.

Enhancing the Kaiser score for lesion characterization in unenhanced breast MRI

PurposeTo adapt the methodology of the Kaiser score, a clinical decision rule for lesion characterization in breast MRI, for unenhanced protocols. MethodIn this retrospective IRB-approved cross-sectional study, we included 93 consecutive patients who underwent breast MRI between 2021 and 2023 for further work-up of BI-RADS 0, 3–5 in conventional imaging or for staging purposes (BI-RADS 6). All patients underwent biopsy for histologic verification or were followed for a minimum of 12 months. MRI scans were conducted using 1.5 T or 3 T scanners using dedicated breast coils and a protocol in line with international recommendations including DWI and ADC. Lesion characterization relied solely on T2w and DWI/ADC-derived features (such as lesion type, margins, shape, internal signal, surrounding tissue findings, ADC value). Statistical analysis was done using decision tree analysis aiming to distinguish benign (histology/follow-up) from malignant outcomes. ResultsWe analyzed a total of 161 lesions (81 of them non-mass) with a malignancy rate of 40%. Lesion margins (spiculated, irregular, or circumscribed) were identified as the most important criterion within the decision tree, followed by the ADC value as second most important criterion. The resulting score demonstrated a strong diagnostic performance with an AUC of 0.840, providing both rule-in and rule-out criteria. In an independent test set of 65 lesions the diagnostic performance was verified by two readers (AUC 0.77 and 0.87, kappa: 0.62). ConclusionsWe developed a clinical decision rule for unenhanced breast MRI including lesion margins and ADC value as the most important criteria, achieving high diagnostic accuracy.

Validation of the PediBIRN-7 clinical prediction rule for pediatric abusive head trauma

BackgroundThe PediBIRN-7 clinical prediction rule incorporates the (positive or negative) predictive contributions of completed abuse evaluations to estimate abusive head trauma (AHT) probability after abuse evaluation. Applying definitional criteria as proxies for AHT and non-AHT ground truth, it performed with sensitivity 0.73 (95 % CI: 0.66–0.79), specificity 0.87 (95 % CI: 0.82–0.90), and ROC-AUC 0.88 (95 % CI: 0.85–0.92) in its derivation study. ObjectiveTo validate the PediBIRN-7's AHT prediction performance in a novel, equivalent, patient population. Participants and settingsConsecutive, acutely head-injured children <3 years hospitalized for intensive care across eight sites between 2017 and 2020 with completed skeletal surveys and retinal exams (N = 342). MethodsSecondary analysis of an existing, cross-sectional, prospective dataset, including assignment of patient-specific estimates of AHT probability, calculation of AHT prediction performance measures (ROC-AUC, sensitivity, specificity, predictive values), and completion of sensitivity analyses to estimate best- and worst-case prediction performances. ResultsApplying the same definitional criteria, the PediBIRN-7 performed with sensitivity 0.74 (95 % CI: 0.66–0.81), specificity 0.77 (95 % CI: 0.70–0.83), and ROC-AUC 0.83 (95 % CI: 0.78–0.88). The reduction in ROC-AUC was statistically insignificant (p = .07). Applying physicians' final consensus diagnoses as proxies for AHT and non-AHT ground truth, the PediBIRN-7 performed with sensitivity 0.73 (95 % CI: 0.66–0.79), specificity 0.87 (95 % CI: 0.82–0.90), and ROC-AUC 0.90 (95 % CI: 0.87–0.94). Sensitivity analyses demonstrated minimal changes in rule performance. ConclusionThe PediBIRN-7's overall AHT prediction performance has been validated in a novel, equivalent, patient population. Its patient-specific estimates of AHT probability can inform physicians' AHT-related diagnostic reasoning after abuse evaluation.

Physical therapy in burn wound healing: Development of clinical prediction rules to identify the efficacy of pulsed electromagnetic therapy

Many studies have demonstrated the effect of pulsed electromagnetic therapy (PEMT) on wound healing. This study aimed to develop a clinical prediction rule (CPR) to assess PEMT's efficacy in burn healing, potentially enhancing treatment decisions and outcomes. It was a one-group intervention study with 46 patients (21 males, 25 females) aged 20 to 55 years, having partial-thickness burns in the first or second healing stage, and a total burned surface area (TBSA) over 15%. The intervention involved pulsed electromagnetic therapy (Fisioline, Italy) for up to six weeks, with 60-minute sessions at 12 Hz and 12 Gauss, three times per week. The statistical analysis was conducted using the SPSS. The study revealed a significant decline in wound surface area (WSA) post-intervention (p &lt; 0.05). A significant negative relationship was found between wound improvement and both age and total body surface area (TBSA) (p &lt; 0.05), while a significant positive relationship was observed between wound improvement and initial wound size (p &lt; 0.05). No significant relationship was found between wound improvement and wound stage (p &gt; 0.05). The study concluded that pulsed electromagnetic therapy significantly reduces wound surface area. Additionally, age, TBSA, and initial burn wound size are important predictors of the therapy's efficacy in treating burn wounds.

Avoidable Overuse of Computed Tomography Pulmonary Angiography (CTPA) in Patients with Suspected Acute Pulmonary Thromboembolism (PTE): The Role of Clinical Prediction Rules and D-Dimer Assay

Background: Computed tomography pulmonary angiography (CTPA) is an imaging technique widely used in the diagnosis of acute pulmonary thromboembolism (PTE). Despite its disadvantages and potential risks, the overuse of CTPA has been a growing concern over the past decades. Objectives: The objective of this study was to investigate the rate of avoidable overuse of CTPA in patients with suspected PTE and to identify factors contributing to this overuse. The study aimed to highlight the importance of proper training for physicians in using validated diagnostic algorithms to minimize the overuse of CTPA and improve patient outcomes. Methods: In a cross-sectional study conducted between April 2016 and March 2019 at Shariati Hospital at Tehran University of Medical Sciences (TUMS), 1058 patients underwent CTPA due to suspected PTE. Wells scores were calculated retrospectively for all patients. The study defined avoidable overuse of CTPA as an imaging request without prior D-dimer testing or ignoring a negative D-dimer result in patients with low clinical pre-test probability. Results: Two hundred and seventy-three patients were excluded from the study due to unavailable documentation or pregnancy. Among the included 785 patients, 139 (17.7%) revealed PTE on CTPA. Based on the Wells scores, 480 patients were identified as the “PTE-unlikely” group. In this group, 299 patients (62.3%) underwent CTPA directly despite recommendations to order a D-dimer test first. Of these patients, 281 (94%) cases showed negative results. Moreover, CTPA was performed inappropriately in 52 “PTE-unlikely” cases despite negative D-dimer serum levels, and only one patient was diagnosed with PTE. Conclusions: The study revealed that 44.7% of the CTPA requests for patients with suspected PTE were avoidable, indicating the need for better adherence to current diagnostic guidelines to reduce unnecessary radiologic investigations and improve patient care.

Performance of Febrile Infant Algorithms by Duration of Fever.

To analyze the performance of commonly used blood tests in febrile infants ≤90 days of age to identify patients at low risk for invasive bacterial infection (bacterial pathogen in blood or cerebrospinal fluid) by duration of fever. We conducted a secondary analysis of a prospective single-center registry that includes all consecutive infants ≤90 days of age with fever without a source evaluated at 1 pediatric emergency department between 2008 and 2021. We defined 3 groups based on caregiver-reported hours of fever (<2, 2-12, and ≥12) and analyzed the performance of the biomarkers and Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Research Network, American Academy of Pediatrics, and Step-by-Step clinical decision rules. We included 2411 infants; 76 (3.0%) were diagnosed with an invasive bacterial infection. The median duration of fever was 4 (interquartile range, 2-12) hours, with 633 (26.3%) patients with fever of <2 hours. The area under the curve was significantly lower in patients with <2 hours for absolute neutrophil count (0.562 vs 0.609 and 0.728) and C-reactive protein (0.568 vs 0.760 and 0.812), but not for procalcitonin (0.749 vs 0.780 and 0.773). Among well-appearing infants older than 21 days and negative urine dipstick with <2 hours of fever, procalcitonin ≥0.14 ng/mL showed a better sensitivity (100% with specificity 53.8%) than that of the combination of biomarkers of Step-by-Step (50.0% and 82.2%), and of the American Academy of Pediatrics and Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Research Network rules (83.3% and 58.3%), respectively. The performance of blood biomarkers, except for procalcitonin, in febrile young infants is lower in fever of very short duration, decreasing the accuracy of the clinical decision rules.

Utility of Synovial Fluid Biomarkers for Culture-Positive Septic Arthritis in a Lyme Disease-Endemic Region.

To evaluate the performance of synovial fluid biomarkers to identify children with culture-positive septic arthritis. We identified children 6 months to 18 years old presenting to a single emergency department between 2007 and 2022 undergoing evaluation for septic arthritis defined by having a synovial fluid culture obtained. Our primary outcome was septic arthritis defined by a positive synovial fluid culture. We evaluated the ability of synovial fluid biomarkers to identify children with septic arthritis using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) analyses. We measured the sensitivity and specificity of commonly used synovial fluid biomarkers. We included 796 children, of whom 79 (10%) had septic arthritis. Compared with synovial white blood cell count (AUC, 0.72; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.65-0.78), absolute neutrophil count (AUC, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.66-0.79; P = 0.09), percent neutrophils (AUC, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.60-0.71; P = 0.12), and glucose (AUC, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.67-0.90; P = 0.33) performed similarly, whereas protein (AUC, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.40-0.63, P = 0.04) had lower diagnostic accuracy. Synovial fluid white blood cell count ≥50,000 cells/μL had a sensitivity of 62.0% (95% CI, 50.4%-72.7%) and a specificity of 67.0% (95% CI, 63.4%-70.4%), whereas a positive synovial fluid Gram stain had a sensitivity of 48.1% (95% CI, 36.5%-59.7%) and specificity of 99.1% (95% CI, 98.1%-99.7%) for septic arthritis. None of the routinely available synovial fluid biomarkers had sufficient accuracy to be used in isolation in the identification of children with septic arthritis. New approaches including multivariate clinical prediction rules and novel biomarkers are needed.

Paediatric meningitis in the conjugate vaccine era and a novel clinical decision model to predict bacterial aetiology

The aims of this study were to assess aetiology and clinical characteristics in childhood meningitis, and develop clinical decision rules to distinguish bacterial meningitis from other similar clinical syndromes. Children aged <16 years hospitalised with suspected meningitis/encephalitis were included, and prospectively recruited at 31 UK hospitals. Meningitis was defined as identification of bacteria/viruses from cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and/or a raised CSF white blood cell count. New clinical decision rules were developed to distinguish bacterial from viral meningitis and those of alternative aetiology. The cohort included 3002 children (median age 2·4 months); 1101/3002 (36·7%) had meningitis, including 180 bacterial, 423 viral and 280 with no pathogen identified. Enterovirus was the most common pathogen in those aged <6 months and 10-16 years, with Neisseria meningitidis and/or Streptococcus pneumoniae commonest at age 6 months to 9 years. The Bacterial Meningitis Score had a negative predictive value of 95·3%. We developed two clinical decision rules, that could be used either before (sensitivity 82%, specificity 71%) or after lumbar puncture (sensitivity 84%, specificity 93%), to determine risk of bacterial meningitis. Bacterial meningitis comprised 6% of children with suspected meningitis/encephalitis. Our clinical decision rules provide potential novel approaches to assist with identifying children with bacterial meningitis. This study was funded by the Meningitis Research Foundation, Pfizer and the NIHR Programme Grants for Applied Research.