Clinical Risk Assessment Research Articles

Screening for Osteoporosis to Prevent Fractures: US Preventive Services Task Force Recommendation Statement.

Osteoporotic fractures are associated with psychological distress, subsequent fractures, loss of independence, reduced ability to perform activities of daily living, and death. The US Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) commissioned a systematic review to evaluate the evidence on the benefits and harms of screening for osteoporosis to prevent fractures in adults 40 years or older with no known diagnosis of osteoporosis or history of fragility fracture. Adults 40 years or older without known osteoporosis or history of fragility fractures. The USPSTF concludes with moderate certainty that screening for osteoporosis to prevent osteoporotic fractures in women 65 years or older has moderate net benefit. The USPSTF concludes with moderate certainty that screening for osteoporosis to prevent osteoporotic fractures in postmenopausal women younger than 65 years at increased risk has moderate net benefit. The USPSTF concludes that the evidence is insufficient and the balance of benefits and harms for screening for osteoporosis to prevent osteoporotic fractures in men cannot be determined. The USPSTF recommends screening for osteoporosis to prevent osteoporotic fractures in women 65 years or older. (B recommendation) The USPSTF recommends screening for osteoporosis to prevent osteoporotic fractures in postmenopausal women younger than 65 years who are at increased risk for an osteoporotic fracture as estimated by clinical risk assessment. (B recommendation) The USPSTF concludes that the current evidence is insufficient to assess the balance of benefits and harms of screening for osteoporosis to prevent osteoporotic fractures in men. (I statement).

Evaluating atherogenic index of plasma as a predictor for metabolic syndrome: a cross-sectional analysis from Northern Taiwan

BackgroundThe rising global prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetS), characterized by a constellation of cardiovascular risk factors, underscores the urgent need to identify reliable predictive biomarkers. We hypothesize that an elevated atherogenic index of plasma (AIP) predicts MetS risk through lipid imbalance, but population-specific variations in its predictive strength remain unexplored. Our study aimed to assess AIP), a ratio of triglycerides to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, as a predictor of MetS.MethodBetween 2014 and 2018, our cross-sectional study collected and analyzed health examination data from 9,202 Northern Taiwan Medical Center employees without cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, and end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Our study classified AIP levels equally into three tertiles and evaluated their impact on MetS through a logistic regression model.ResultsAfter adjusting for age, gender, BMI, SBP, FPG, and LDL in our models, the ORs for MetS in the second and third tertiles of the AIP were 3.81 (95% CI: 2.33 to 6.21; OR: 37.14, 95%: 23.22 to 59.39). In addition, women have a higher MetS risk associated with elevated AIP than men across all models.ConclusionOur research identified the AIP as a significant predictive marker for the prevalence of MetS, suggesting its potential utility in clinical risk assessment and indicating the need for further research to explore its application in preventive strategies and therapeutic interventions.

Early Clinical Deterioration Risk Assessment in Inpatient Units of a Public University Hospital

Background: Clinical deterioration occurs due to changes in vital signs, which can be identified early to prevent negative outcomes. We used the NEWS2 system to assess the potential for early clinical deterioration in adult inpatient units at a public university hospital in southeastern Brazil. Materials and Methods: This was an exploratory study conducted at a public hospital in southeastern Brazil, following the guidelines of the Reporting of Strengthening Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) initiative. Data was collected from January to April 2021, involving 251 inpatients. A questionnaire was used to gather sociodemographic and clinical data, and the Brazilian version of NEWS2 was used to assess the risk of clinical deterioration. Data analysis included descriptive analyses, linear correlation tests, and comparative tests. Results: The average NEWS2 score was 2.9 points among 251 patients, indicating a moderate level of care complexity and recommending assessment by a registered nurse every 4–6 hours. There was no significant correlation between age and NEWS2 score, but the NEWS2 score was significantly higher for men. Conclusions: This study highlights the necessity of using robust assessment tools to evaluate the risk of early clinical deterioration, enabling clinicians to manage patient conditions effectively.

Comparison of PREMM5 and PREMMplus Risk Assessment Models to Identify Lynch Syndrome.

Clinical risk assessment models can identify patients with hereditary cancer susceptibility, but it is unknown how multigene cancer syndrome prediction models compare with syndrome-specific models in assessing risk for individual syndromes such as Lynch syndrome (LS). Our aim was to compare PREMMplus (a 19-gene cancer risk prediction model) with PREMM5 (a LS gene-specific model) for LS identification. We analyzed data from two cohorts of patients undergoing germline testing from a commercial laboratory (n = 12,020) and genetics clinic (n = 6,232) with personal and/or family histories of LS-associated cancer. Individual PREMMplus and PREMM5 scores were calculated for all patients. Using a score cutoff of 2.5%, we calculated the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value (NPV) for identifying LS with each model. Overall ability to discriminate LS carriers from noncarriers was measured using receiver operating characteristic (ROC)-AUC. PREMMplus had higher sensitivity than PREMM5 in the laboratory- (63.7% [95% CI, 57.0 to 70.0] v 89.2% [95% CI, 84.4 to 93.0]) and clinic-based cohorts (60.8% [95% CI, 52.7 to 68.4] v 90.5% [95% CI, 84.8 to 94.6]). NPV was ≥98.8% for both models in both cohorts. PREMM5 had superior discriminatory capacity to PREMMplus in the laboratory- (ROC-AUC, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.77 to 0.84] v 0.71 [95% CI, 0.67 to 0.75]) and clinic-based cohorts (ROC-AUC, 0.79 [95% CI, 0.75 to 0.84] v 0.68 [95% CI, 0.64 to 0.73]). Both PREMM5 and PREMMplus demonstrated high NPVs (>98%) in LS discrimination across all patient cohorts, and both models may be used to identify individuals at risk of LS. The choice of which model to use can be based on the goals of risk assessment and patient population.

Differential impact of TyG and TyG-BMI indices on short- and long-term mortality in critically ill ischemic stroke patients

BackgroundIschemic stroke is a major contributor to global morbidity and mortality, particularly in critically ill patients in intensive care units (ICUs). While advances in stroke management have improved outcomes, predicting mortality remains challenging due to the involvement of complex metabolic and cardiovascular factors. The triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index, a marker for insulin resistance, has gained attention for its potential to predict adverse outcomes in stroke patients. Furthermore, the TyG-BMI index, which combines TyG with body mass index (BMI), may offer a more comprehensive measure by accounting for obesity-related metabolic burden. However, the comparative impact of these indices on short- and long-term mortality among critically ill ischemic stroke patients remains unclear.MethodsThis retrospective cohort study analyzed data from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV 3.0) database, including 1,334 critically ill ischemic stroke patients. The patients were divided into four groups based on TyG and TyG-BMI quartiles, respectively. Cox proportional hazards models were employed to assess the association of these indices with 30-day, 90-day, 180-day, and 1-year all-cause mortality (ACM). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to compare survival rates across different index levels. We utilized restricted cubic splines (RCS) to examine the association between the TyG, TyG-BMI index and the specified outcomes. Furthermore, TyG and TyG-BMI index were utilized to establish logistic regression models for mortality across different time periods, and corresponding Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves were generated.ResultsKaplan-Meier survival analysis show that Higher TyG levels were associated with significantly increased mortality risk at all time points, with patients in the highest TyG quartile exhibiting the greatest risk. Conversely, patients having a lower TyG-BMI level faced a heightened risk of long-term ACM. The RCS analysis results demonstrated that the TyG index did not exhibit a statistically significant nonlinear relationship with mortality across all time points. However, a significant nonlinear relationship was observed between the TyG index and long-term mortality. From the ROC curve, it can be observed that TyG performs better in predicting short-term mortality. Conversely, TyG-BMI demonstrates superior performance in predicting long-term mortality. The analysis revealed that while the TyG index alone is a strong predictor of mortality, the TyG-BMI index enhances the ability to predict long-term outcomes.ConclusionThis finding suggests both the TyG and TyG-BMI indices serve as valuable predictors of mortality in critically ill ischemic stroke patients. However, significant differences were observed across the various follow-up periods. Based on the distinct characteristics of these two indicators, future research should focus on the selective integration of TyG and TyG-BMI indices into clinical risk assessment models, tailored to the metabolic profiles of ischemic stroke patients in the ICU. This approach could enhance the precision of mortality risk stratification and optimize patient management strategies.

EFFECTIVENESS OF DISTRACTION AND ORTHOGNATHIC INTERVENTION IN THE TREATMENT OF MESIAL OCCLUSION IN PATIENTS WITH MAXILLARY UNDERDEVELOPMENT

Mesial occlusion is a complex orthodontic pathology that adversely affects facial aesthetics, masticatory function, and patient quality of life, making timely treatment critical. One of the modern methods of correction is distraction osteogenesis, which allows gradual expansion of bone structures while minimizing the risk of relapse. The choice of treatment is based on the patient's clinical presentation, with distraction being a priority in cases where traditional surgery is contraindicated. Aim of the study was a detailed analysis of the effectiveness and safety of various treatment methods for mesial occlusion in adult patients with maxillary underdevelopment. Material and methods. The study included 15 adolescent patients between the ages of 19 and 23 with skeletal mesial occlusion. Baseline diagnostic data were obtained for each patient, and the volume of bone tissue in the vestibulo-oral direction at the site of planned implant placement was assessed during preparation for implant placement. Statistically significant differences between alternative quantitative characteristics with normal distributions were evaluated using Student's t-test. A difference was considered statistically significant at p<0.01. The study was carried out in compliance with the main provisions of the Council of Europe Convention on Human Rights and Biomedicine (4 April 1997), the World Medical Association Declaration of Helsinki on the Ethical Principles for Scientific Medical Research Involving Human Subjects (1964-2013), ICH GCP (1996), orders of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine No. 690 of 23.09.2009, No. 944 of 14.12.2009, No. 616 of 03.08.2012. The work is a fragment of the research project “Correction of violations of osteogenesis processes in the treatment and prevention of complications of dental diseases wartime” state registration No. 0123U103247. Results. The results of the study showed that in adult patients, orthognathic surgery ensures favorable skeletal outcomes for maxillary mesialization. However, when the replacement of lateral incisors with canines is feasible, this treatment approach may reduce the number of rehabilitation stages while achieving dentoalveolar relationships that conform to normal standards. The use of distraction osteogenesis in adult patients has yielded good results and may be justified in cases of critical reduction of maxillary body dimensions or contraindications to conventional orthognathic surgery. Conclusion. Distraction osteogenesis and orthognathic procedures effectively correct mesial occlusion, ensuring a stable increase in the sagittal dimension of the maxilla and improving occlusion. Replacement of lateral incisors with canines minimizes the need for additional surgery in cases of agenesis. The choice of treatment method should be based on individual clinical indications and risk assessment for each patient.

Stumbles, Gait, and Cognition: Risk Factors Associated with Falls in Older Adults with Subjective Memory Complaints.

Falls are a public health problem, impacting quality of life, independence, and health costs. Subjective memory complaints (SMCs) and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) increase with age and may coexist. The risk of falls coinciding with SMCs is less understood. This study explored the risk factors associated with falls in adults with SMCs or MCI. A case-control study in adults over 50 was conducted. All participants underwent a neuropsychological assessment and a Timed Up and Go (TUG) test for gait analysis. Logistic regression calculated OR and p values, adjusting for demographic, clinical, cognitive, and gait variables. There was a total of 64 patients (47.06%) and 72 controls (52.94%). Fallers were older (70.76 ± 7.31) and had hypertension (29.63%), a history of stumbling (13.97%), slow TUG test performance (19.12%), and an asymmetric arm swing (19.85%). Fallers had lower verbal fluency (p = 0.043) and impairment on the Rey-Osterrieth figure copy (p = 0.047). Highest risk factors included female sex (OR 3.55, p = 0.006), older age (OR= 1.08, p = 0.006), hypertension (OR 3.33, p = 0.005), and stumbles (OR 5.65, p = 0.002). This study reconsiders clinical fall risk assessments in older adults with SMCs. Visuo-constructional abilities and executive dysfunction should be followed over time. Female sex, hypertension, and stumbles are risk factors. Integrated cognitive and motor assessments are crucial for detecting and proposing interventions for fall prevention in this population.

Construction of a risk prediction model of diquat poisoning based on clinical indicators.

This study aims to explore the clinical characteristics and prognostic factors in patients with diquat (DQ) poisoning and to develop a clinical risk assessment model to improve diagnosis and treatment strategies. Data from 60 patients with DQ poisoning, including basic characteristics, poisoning severity, and inflammatory response indicators, were collected. The plasma concentration of DQ was measured using liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry. The included patients were categorized into survival and death groups based on their 30-day outcomes. Fisher's exact test was used to identify statistically significant clinical indicators (p<.05), and logistic regression within a generalized linear model (GLM) framework was employed to analyze these indicators alongside the severity index of diquat poisoning (SIDP), followed by the construction of a prognostic model. The performance of the model was evaluated through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and the accuracy of the model was assessed. Additionally, two independent sample Wilcoxon tests compared the clinical indicators between high-risk and low-risk groups. Fisher's exact test identified significant differences in variables such as oral drug dosage (ODD), time from poisoning to admission (TFPTA), state of consciousness (SOC), Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), white blood cells (WBC), myoglobin (Myo), high-flow nasal cannula (HFNC), invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV), acute kidney injury (AKI), and acute lung injury (ALI) (p<.05) between the survival and death groups. The GLM-based risk assessment model demonstrated high predictive accuracy, with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.97 (SE 0.017, 95% CI 0.939-1.001), indicating potent prognostic capability. The Wilcoxon test revealed that ODD, Myo, SIDP, aspartate transferase (AST), creatine kinase (CK), hemoglobin (Hb), cardiac troponin (cTnT), and serum creatinine (Cr) levels were significantly higher in the high-risk group. The clinical risk assessment model effectively predicts the prognosis of patients with DQ poisoning, aiding clinicians in personalizing treatment strategies to improve patient outcomes.

Prevalence of depressive symptoms, suicidal ideation and behaviours in young people presenting with a first episode of psychosis.

Suicide accounts for a proportion of the early mortality in people affected by psychotic disorders. The early phase of illness can represent a particularly high-risk time for suicide. Therefore, in a cohort of young people presenting with first-episode psychosis, this study aimed to determine: (i) the prevalence of suicidal ideation, intent with plan and self-harm and any associated demographic or clinical factors and (ii) the prevalence of depressive symptoms and any associated demographic or clinical factors. Young people with a first episode of psychosis attending the Early Psychosis Prevention and Intervention Centre in Melbourne were included. Suicidal behaviours were recorded using a structured risk assessment - 'Clinical Risk Assessment and Management in the Community', and depressive symptoms were measured using the PHQ-9. A total of 355 young people were included in the study. 57.2% were male, 95.4% were single and over one quarter were migrants. At the time of presentation, 34.6% had suicidal ideation, 6.2% had suicidal intent with a plan, and 21.4% had engaged in self-harm before their presentation. Combined, 39.7% (n = 141) presented with suicidal ideation, intent with plan or self-harm. A total of 71.5% (n = 118) had moderately severe or severe depressive symptoms, which was strongly associated with suicidal ideation or behaviours at the time of presentation (OR = 4.21, 95% C.I. 2.10-8.44). Depressive symptoms, self-harm and suicidal behaviours are commonly present in the early phases of a psychotic disorder, which has important clinical implications for assessment and management.

A study of impulsivity and adverse childhood experiences in a population health setting.

As complex mental health traits and life histories are often poorly captured in hospital systems, the utility of using the Barratt Impulsivity Scale (BIS) and Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACEs) for assessing adult disease risks is unknown. Here, we use participants from the Healthy Nevada Project (HNP) to determine if two standard self-assessments could predict the incidence and onset of disease. We conducted a retrospective cohort study involving adult participants who completed the Behavioral and Mental Health Self-Assessment (HDSA) between September 2018 and March 2024. Impulsivity levels were measured using the BIS-15, and retrospective self-reports of ACEs were collected through a standardized questionnaire. In total, 17,482 HNP participants completed the HDSA. Our findings indicate that ACEs were significantly associated with impulsivity. Disease associations with impulsivity and ACEs were evaluated using a phenome-wide association study, identifying 230 significant associations with impulsivity. Among these, 44 were related to mental health diagnoses, including major depressive disorder (MDD). Kaplan-Meier survival estimates characterized the differences in the lifetime predicted probability between high and low impulsivity for major depressive disorder and essential hypertension. This analysis showed that having both high ACEs and high impulsivity confer substantial risk of MDD diagnosis (hazard ratios 2.81, 2.17, respectively). Additionally, lifetime predicted probability of MDD was approximately 40% higher for high ACEs and high impulsivity compared to no ACEs and low impulsivity. Essential hypertension demonstrated similar trends, with an approximate 20% increase in predicted lifetime probability of diagnosis. These results demonstrate that high ACES and elevated impulsivity scores are associated with a range of negative health outcomes and a simple self-assessment of complex traits and life history may significantly impact clinical risk assessments.

Real-World Evidence of the Impact of CanAssist Breast on Physician's Decision About the Use of Adjuvant Chemotherapy in Early Breast Cancer.

Background Clinicians use prognostic biomarker/multi-gene-based tests for predicting recurrence in hormone receptor-positive/HER2-negative (HR+/HER2-) early-stage breast cancer (EBC). CanAssist Beast (CAB) uses the expression of five protein biomarkers in combination with tumor-specific parameters such as tumor size, histopathological grade, and lymph node status to predict the risk of distant recurrence within five years of diagnosis for patients with HR+/HER2-, EBC. The current study aimed to evaluate the impact of prognostic tests on adjuvant chemotherapy decisions by assessing the agreement between clinical and CAB risk stratification as low-risk (LR) or high-risk (HR) for distant recurrence. Methods The primary study group included 300 patients with HR+/HER2-, EBC diagnosed between 2016 and 2021. The clinical risk assessment and recommended treatment plan were captured before and after receiving the results for CAB. The risk stratification of patients into CAB LR and HR was obtained. Finally, compliance with CAB was analyzed by assessing the concordance of treatment prescribed with the CAB risk category. Results Before performing the CanAssist Breast test, patients were stratified based on clinicopathological features, with 52% of patients as LR, 21% as HR, and 27% of patients distributed as uncertain/intermediate risk (IR) category. CAB re-stratified the same cohort of patients, 67% as LR and 33% as HR, which was 15% higher than that of clinical LR assessment. The clinical IR category was re-stratified by CAB as 51% LR and 49% HR. Changes in treatment recommendations were seen in both clinical HR and clinical LR groups, which were 87% and 85%, respectively. Conclusions CAB has a significant impact on chemotherapy decisions. CAB provides definite treatment recommendations for patients with clinical intermediate risk. Overall, CAB has changed treatment recommendations in 23% of the cohort and for 88% of clinical IR patients helped physicians make a treatment decision.

Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratios as mortality predictors in acute Aluminum phosphide (grain pills) poisoning: clinical insights and risk assessment.

Aluminum phosphides (AlP) is a solid fumigant pesticide known for its high toxicity and mortality. Diagnosis of AlP is based on the history and clinical examination. The literature on the early prediction of adverse outcomes following AlP exposure is limited. Therefore, the current study aimed to investigate the role of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet-to-lymphocyte Ratio (PLR) as early accessible predictors of mortality in AlP-exposed patients. We conducted a retrospective cross-sectional study on 420 adult patients with acute AlP poisoning. This study reported mean NLR and PLR of 4.07±3.82 and 182.97±147.29, respectively. Patients with high NLR and PLR showed more severe presentation, indicated by the significantly lower Glasgow scales and higher poison severity score grades. Besides, the need for mechanical ventilation, vasopressor therapy, and ICU admission was significantly higher among patients with high NLR and PLR (P=0.000). We observed a significantly higher proportion of mortality among patients with high NLR (69.5%) and PLR (87.4%) (P=0.000). The NLR>3.42, PLR>172.5, and their combinations were significant predictors of mortality, showing area under curves above 0.94. Utilizing a combination of NLR and PLR yielded a modestly improved performance as a mortality predictor with a slight increase in the Youden index (0.81). The high NLR and high PLR groups had mean survival times of 28.851 and 16.256h respectively. These findings suggest that high NLR and PLR are associated with a worse prognosis and a higher mortality risk among patients with acute AlP poisoning.

Longitudinal history of mammographic breast density and breast cancer risk by familial risk, menopausal status, and initial mammographic density level in a high risk cohort: a nested case–control study

BackgroundElevated mammographic density is associated with increased breast cancer risk. However, the contribution of longitudinal changes in mammographic density to breast cancer risk beyond initial mammographic density levels, considering familial breast cancer risk and menopausal status, remains uncertain but holds important clinical implications.MethodsIn a nested case–control study within the Sister Study (323 cases, 899 controls; 12,095 mammograms), a cohort enriched for family history of breast cancer, we examined case–control status in relation to the largest annual change in percent density and dense area using mammograms available spanning 5.4 years, on average, using multivariable logistic regression and to the rate of mammographic density change using linear mixed-effects models. We considered effect modification by: mammographic density level of the earlier mammogram, the extent of family history, Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation (BOADICEA) risk strata, and menopausal status.ResultsCases (diagnosed < 60 years) had greater initial percent density and dense area levels and a slower rate of decline in dense area than controls. Women with stable mammographic density (≤ 10% annual change) had an increased breast cancer risk as compared with women whose largest mammographic density change was > 10% annual decline (e.g., Odds Ratio (OR) 2.34, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) 1.63–3.37 for dense area). Increasing vs. decreasing dense area was also associated with elevated risk, especially in women with the highest dense area levels at the earlier mammogram (OR: 2.56, 95%CI 1.50–4.36). Although generally similar across menopausal and familial risk categories, the associations of MD change with risk appeared stronger in pre-menopausal and lower-risk women.ConclusionsWomen who maintain higher levels of mammographic density (i.e. do not decrease over time) or have increasing mammographic density over time have a higher risk of subsequent breast cancer than women with high mammographic density that decreases over time. These findings suggest potential for incorporating mammographic density trajectories in clinical risk assessment, and the importance of additional breast cancer monitoring in women not experiencing declines in mammographic density over time.

Analysis of factors related to venous thrombosis after ankle fracture combined with type 2 diabetes mellitus applying tourniquet surgery.

The objective was to study the risk factors of venous thrombosis after ankle fracture with type 2 diabetes mellitus surgery using a tourniquet and to assess the effect of ischemic preconditioning and metformin combination therapy in preventing thrombosis. One hundred eighty patients with ankle fractures combined with type 2 diabetes mellitus treated with lower extremity tourniquet surgery between January 2020 and December 2023 were analyzed. Based on postoperative color Doppler ultrasound of both lower extremities, the patients were divided into thrombus-positive and negative groups. Multifactorial logistic regression analysis was utilized to determine the high-risk factors for venous thrombosis and construct a prediction model. There were 64 cases in the positive group and 116 cases in the negative group. The differences between the 2 groups in gender, age, fracture site, preoperative glycosylated hemoglobin, thromboelastography parameters, duration of surgery, D-dimer level at 1-week postoperatively, and thromboelastography K, α, and MA values were not statistically significant (P > .05); however, there was no statistically significant difference in the preoperative D-dimer level, tourniquet duration, bleeding volume, thromboelastography R-value at 1-week postoperatively, and ischemic preconditioning in combination with metformin treatment patient There was a significant difference in the proportion (P < .05). Multifactorial logistic regression analysis showed that preoperative high D-dimer, prolonged tourniquet application, massive bleeding, and increased thromboelastography R-value at 1-week postoperatively were independent risk factors, and ischemic preconditioning combined with metformin was a protective factor. Preoperative high D-dimer, prolonged tourniquet application, massive bleeding, and increased thromboelastography R-value at 1-week postoperatively were independent risk factors for postoperative venous thrombosis in patients with ankle fracture with type 2 diabetes mellitus and ischemic preconditioning combined with metformin treatment was a protective measure, and the prediction model is valuable in guiding clinical thrombosis risk assessment.

The Analysis Study of Diagnosis and Management of Epitaxis :A Comprehensive Systematic Review

Background: Epistaxis, or nasal haemorrhage, is a common and potentially serious clinical presentation that can range from a minor inconvenience to a life-threatening emergency. This systematic review aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the diagnosis and management of epistaxis, emphasizing the interplay between epidemiological factors, anatomical considerations, and clinical risk assessment. Methods: The study followed PRISMA 2020 guidelines, reviewing English-language publications from 2014 to 2024. Editorials, duplicate reviews from the same journal, and papers lacking a DOI were excluded. The literature search was conducted using PubMed, SagePub, SpringerLink, and Google Scholar. Result: A total of 2,172 articles were initially identified through online databases (PubMed, SagePub, SpringerLink, and Google Scholar). After three rounds of screening, eight relevant studies were selected for full-text analysis. Conclusion: Epistaxis is a multifactorial condition influenced by local and systemic factors, including comorbidities, medication use, and blood markers. Comprehensive treatment, such as effective initial management, bleeding point identification, and control of hypertension and anemia, is essential for improving outcomes. NOACs offer promising alternatives but require careful treatment consideration.

GINGIVAL STATUS AND ORAL HYGIENE HABITS IN CHILDREN BETWEEN 10-12 YEARS

Introduction: Children's adolescence is characterized by dynamically changing indicators of periodontal and oral health, related mainly to the eruption of the permanent dentition and stabilization of the periodontal space. This age period is also characterized by an increased incidence of gingival diseases, with the dental biofilm being the main risk factor for the inflammatory process. Aim: The aim of this study is to assess the relationship between gingival status, oral hygiene habits and knowledge on topics related to oral health in children aged 11-13. Material and methods: The subject of the study was 106 children aged 11-13 years. All children overwent a clinical periodontal examination and periodontal risk assessment at 4 levels. An electronic periodontal probe PA ON (Orangedental) with specially designed software was used to assess periodontal and oral hygiene status. The study included a survey method for assessing children's knowledge on topics related to oral health with periodontal focus. The survey consists of 38 questions divided into eight topics. Results: All the children aged 11-13 years had an initial form of gingival inflammation, against the background of plaque accumulation affecting more than 69% of tooth surfaces, unstable and irregular oral hygiene habits, as well as insufficient knowledge of oral/periodontal health. Through appropriate preventive programs, this age is best suited to create consciously motivated behavior for proper oral hygiene and oral health.

Nonlinear association of alkaline phosphatase-to-albumin ratio with all-cause and cancer mortality: Evidence from NHANES 2005 to 2016.

The relationship between the alkaline phosphatase-to-albumin ratio (APAR) and mortality remains unclear. This research looked into the association between APAR levels and cause-specific mortality in US adults. A cohort of 7561 participants from National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2005-2016) was analyzed, with mortality outcomes collected from National Death Index records. Cox proportional hazards models and restricted cubic spline (RCS) analysis were utilized to determine hazard ratio (HR) and reveal the nonlinear relationship between APAR levels and mortality. Inflection points were calculated using a recursive algorithm. Followed for an average 99.41 months, a total of 1048 deaths occurred, including 200 cancer deaths and 348 cardiovascular disease-related deaths. Following multivariate adjustment, significant associations were observed between APAR levels and increased all-cause (HR 1.50, 95% CI 1.28-1.75, P < .001) and cardiovascular disease (HR 1.39, 95% CI 1.06-1.82, P = .018) mortality. Furthermore, nonlinear correlations between APAR levels and all-cause and cancer mortality were revealed, characterized by an L-shaped pattern, with mortality rates stabilizing at 1.289 and 2.167, respectively. Participants with APAR levels above the inflection point exhibited a 29.2% increase in all-cause mortality risk per unit increase in APAR levels (HR 1.292, 95% CI 1.217-1.372, P < .001), and a 38.3% increase in cancer mortality risk (HR 1.383, 95% CI 1.199-1.596, P < .001). This study demonstrated nonlinear associations between APAR levels and all-cause and cancer mortality. Thresholds of 1.289 and 2.167 might serve as potential targets for APAR to reduce all-cause and cancer mortality, respectively. Our findings suggest that APAR can be a valuable prognostic tool for clinical mortality risk assessments, helping to identify individuals at higher risk. Nevertheless, these findings necessitate validation through large-scale clinical trials for further substantiation.

Abstract 4127919: Disease-associated variants in DSP -encoded desmoplakin are common, yet low penetrant alleles associated with development of myocarditis and cardiomyopathy at a population level

Intro: DSP- encoded desmoplakin is implicated in a distinct form of arrhythmic cardiomyopathy (ACM), often involving the LV and characterized by myocardial inflammation. Conventional ACM diagnostic criteria has poor sensitivity for DSP -associated ACM, thus highlighting the need to identify the full spectrum of phenotypic risk associated with disease-associated DSP variants. Objective: To analyze the genotypic and phenotypic spectrum of DSP -mediated disease at a large population level. Methods: UK Biobank participants with exome sequencing (ES) were included. Variants were filtered by gene evidence category, yielding 3 groups: predicted deleterious (pDel); subset with predicted loss of function (LOF); and ultra-filtered subset by ClinVar 2* pathogenic/likely pathogenic (P/LP). Phenotypic penetrance was analyzed with DSP -neg individuals as control. Variant location analysis assessed LOFs by susceptibility to nonsense mediated decay region and missenses by amino acid sequence to identify mutational hotspots where P/LPs localize. Results: Out of 200,580 with ES, 1407 DSP carriers had pDel, 168 with LOF, and 44 with ClinVar 2* P/LP. DSP carriers had higher burden of myocarditis, cardiomyopathy (CM), and heart failure. A progressive enrichment in myocarditis and CM was observed by more stringent variant filtering in DSP carriers compared to control. A higher proportion of DSP carriers had myocarditis – 0.28% (4) of the pDels, 1.8% (3) of LOFs, and 4.5% (2) compared to control 0.07% (p&lt;0.05). A parallel trend noted the proportion of DSP carriers with CM growing from 1.4% (19) to 5.4% (9) and 6.8% (3) in the pDel, LOF, and ClinVar 2* P/LPs respectively compared to 0.6% in the control group (p&lt;0.01). Location analysis of missense variants revealed that P/LPs localized in higher proportions (74%) to key domains compared to non-P/LPs (50%; p&lt;0.001), highlighting prognostic value of predicting pathogenicity of missense DSP variants by mutation hotspots. Conclusions: While DSP variants are relatively common in the population, variant presence is associated with low penetrance. Enhancing clinical penetrance with increasingly stringent filtering of DSP variants emphasizes the importance of variant evaluation in clinical risk assessment. This first-in-kind population study of DSP provides insights into novel risk prediction factors, allowing us to predict pathogenicity by type and location of mutation and using variant filtering strategy to better assess phenotypic penetrance.

A questionnaire study evaluating the completion and content of unlicensed medicines risk assessments in NHS Trusts

Abstract Introduction Unlicensed medicine (ULM) use is necessary and prevalent within the NHS. Compared to licensed medicines, there are no centralised assessments of safety, efficacy, and quality. The risks associated with using unlicensed medicines have been well documented: increased risk of adverse events, potentially poorer quality formulation and absence of regulated manufacturing and supply standards1. Therefore, there is a requirement for NHS organisations to risk assess the need and quality of unlicensed medicines to reduce harm2. There are currently minimal published data on whether NHS trusts complete these risk assessments and whether practice is standardised3. This study focuses on understanding how NHS trusts in England conduct Unlicensed Medicine Risk Assessments (ULMRA). Aim To determine whether there is variability in the completion, content, and volume of unlicensed medicines risk assessments for unlicensed medicines procured within NHS trusts. Methods An online and anonymous questionnaire was developed and distributed to procurement pharmacy professionals. The questionnaire assessed four key areas: quantity of ULMRA conducted; completion and content of ULMRA; completion of clinical ULMRA; and risk management and mitigation strategies for ULM. To increase response rates, potential respondents were contacted via regional procurement groups as well as the NHS Chief Pharmacist network. Approval for this study was granted by the NHS Health and Research Authority and the University of Reading Ethics Committee. Results Content validity was ensured by a panel of six secondary care pharmacy professionals, achieving a content validity index (CVI) of greater than 0.8 for each question. Thirty-seven responses were received, representing a 20% response rate. Most respondents (48.6%) were pharmacists, followed by pharmacy technicians (45.9%). The questionnaire revealed that 73% of respondents conducted quality and clinical risk assessments for all ULMs before use, and 94.4% had a ULM policy or procedure. Most respondents procured 1-3 ULMs per month, with some conducting over 12 ULMRA monthly. 97% specified procuring imported products licensed in the country of origin and 'Specials' from UK manufacturers, and 57% indicated they procure imported medicines not licensed in the country of origin. 68% of respondents indicated that quality checks were not completed upon receipt of ULMs. Discussion The study highlighted significant variation and duplication in the ULMRA processes across NHS trusts. Variations were identified in the content of ULMRA, professionals completing risk assessments and the volume of unlicensed medicines procured. While most trusts performed quality and clinical risk assessments, inconsistencies in practices and ULMRA content were evident. Standard methodologies for ULMRA and collaborative data sharing could improve reliability and efficiency, reducing patient risk and resource duplication. A limitation of this study is that the low response rate limits generalisability of data. Conclusion This study identified areas of variation within the NHS around the content and quantity of ULMRA completed, as well as some areas of duplication, particularly in the medicines risk assessed. Future research should explore the reasons for variation identified and evaluate the acceptability of current risks. Addressing these variations could lead to improved patient safety and optimised use of NHS resources.

Trajectories of obesity indices and their association with pain in community-dwelling older adults: Findings from the English longitudinal study of ageing

BackgroundThe prevalence of pain has increased with the increase of obesity, and finding indicators to predict pain risk has become an urgent need. BMI, WC, and WHtR have the potential to be excellent predictors. However, the association of these obesity indicators with various pains remains unclear. MethodsThis longitudinal cohort study included 2155 pain-free participants (mean age = 68.5 years, standard deviation [SD] = 8.6) from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA). BMI, WC, and WHtR were measured during nurse visits at waves 0, 2, and 4. The Group-Based Trajectory Model (GBTM) was used to identify optimal trajectories for BMI, WC, and WHtR. Self-reported pain at four anatomical sites (lower back, hip, knee and total pain) was assessed at Waves 4 to 9. Cox proportional hazards models were employed to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the association between obesity indices and pain risk. ResultsOver a median follow-up period of 7.49 years, we observed 1,059 incident cases of all-cause pain. After adjusting for confounders, participants in the High-Stable WC group had a 30% higher risk of experiencing pain (HR: 1.30, 95 % CI: 1.05–1.60, P = 0.014), while those in the High-Stable WHtR group had a 29% higher risk (HR: 1.29, 95% CI: 1.06–1.56, P = 0.010) compared to the Low-Stable group. High-stable trajectories for BMI, WC, and WHtR were also associated with an elevated risk of back, hip, and knee pain. ConclusionThis study identifies long-term obesity indices as significant predictors of pain, suggesting the importance of monitoring these measures for effective clinical risk assessments. Further research is needed to explore the underlying mechanisms of these associations.