Climatological Sea Surface Temperature Research Articles

Projected Response of Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Intensification in a Global Climate Model

As one of the first global coupled climate models to simulate and predict category 4 and 5 (Saffir–Simpson scale) tropical cyclones (TCs) and their interannual variations, the High-Resolution Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution (HiFLOR) model at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) represents a novel source of insight on how the entire TC intensification distribution could be transformed because of climate change. In this study, three 70-yr HiFLOR experiments are performed to identify the effects of climate change on TC intensity and intensification. For each of the experiments, sea surface temperature (SST) is nudged to different climatological targets and atmospheric radiative forcing is specified, allowing us to explore the sensitivity of TCs to these conditions. First, a control experiment, which uses prescribed climatological ocean and radiative forcing based on observations during the years 1986–2005, is compared to two observational records and evaluated for its ability to capture the mean TC behavior during these years. The simulated intensification distributions as well as the percentage of TCs that become major hurricanes show similarities with observations. The control experiment is then compared to two twenty-first-century experiments, in which the climatological SSTs from the control experiment are perturbed by multimodel projected SST anomalies and atmospheric radiative forcing from either 2016–35 or 2081–2100 (RCP4.5 scenario). The frequency, intensity, and intensification distribution of TCs all shift to higher values as the twenty-first century progresses. HiFLOR’s unique response to climate change and fidelity in simulating the present climate lays the groundwork for future studies involving models of this type.

Impact of Arctic sea ice variations on winter temperature anomalies in northern hemispheric land areas

Coordinated numerical ensemble experiments with six different state-of-the-art atmosphere models have been used in order to evaluate the respective impact of the observed Arctic sea ice and sea surface temperature (SST) variations on air temperature variations in mid and high latitude land areas. Two sets of experiments have been designed; in the first set (EXP1), observed daily sea ice concentration and SST variations are used as lower boundary forcing over 1982–2014 while in the second set (EXP2) the SST variations are replaced by the daily SST climatology. The observed winter 2 m air temperature (T2m) variations are relatively well reproduced in a number of mid and high latitude land areas in EXP1, with best agreement in southwestern North America and northern Europe. Sea ice variations are important for the interannual T2m variations in northern Europe but have limited impact on all other mid and high latitude land regions. In particular, sea ice variations do not contribute to the observed opposite variations in the Arctic and mid latitude in our model experiments. The spread across ensemble members is large and many ensemble members are required to reproduce the observed T2m variations over northern Europe in our models. The amplitude of T2m anomalies in the coldest observed winters over northern Europe is not reproduced by our multi-model ensemble means. However, the sea ice conditions in these respective winters and mainly the thermodynamic response to the ice anomalies lead to an enhanced likelihood for occurrence of colder than normal winters and extremely cold winters. Still, the main reason for the observed extreme cold winters is internal atmospheric dynamics. The coldest simulated northern European winters in EXP1 and EXP2 between 1982 and 2014 show the same large scale T2m and atmospheric circulation anomaly patterns as the observed coldest winters, indicating that the models are well able to reproduce the processes, which cause these cold anomalies. The results are robust across all six models used in this study.

Importance of the Resolution of Surface Topography in Indian Monsoon Simulation

The influence of surface topography resolution in Indian summer monsoon simulation is investigated. Three sets of six-member ensemble simulations with climatological sea surface temperature are conducted with the Community Atmospheric Model, version 5.1 (CAM5.1): COARSE simulation at 1.9° × 2.5° latitude–longitude resolution, FINE simulation at 0.47° × 0.63° resolution, and HYBRID simulation, that is, using COARSE surface topography imposed on the FINE configuration. With regard to the representation of the surface topography, substantial differences occur at the regional scales between the simulations, especially over the foothills and steep flanks of the mountains. In the COARSE and HYBRID simulations, the orographic height of the foothills is overestimated whereas that of the steep flanks adjacent to the foothills is underestimated. The biases are severe (up to 1 km) over the Himalayas and Tibet and have detrimental effects on regional climate through barrier effects on the low-level flow, and the lapse rate and elevated heat source effects. Overall, the simulations show remarkable improvement with an increase in resolution, mainly because of the improved representation of atmospheric and surface processes. However, local climate—surface air temperature, sea level pressure, precipitable water, and wind—of the orographic regions, particularly where large orographic biases exist in COARSE, is found to benefit substantially from increased resolution of surface topography. Local precipitation and evaporation are exceptions, although, as they are negligibly sensitive to topographic resolution, showing strong dependence on the resolution of surface and atmospheric processes. Moreover, resolution of surface topography generally does not have notable remote impacts.

An investigation of CMIP5 model biases in simulating the impacts of central Pacific El Niño on the East Asian summer monsoon

The delayed impacts of the central Pacific (CP) El Nino on the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) are evaluated by comparing historical runs from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models against reanalysis data. In observations, an anomalous western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC), linking CP El Nino to the EASM, forms due to the transition of sea surface temperature (SST) warming into SST cooling over the CP, which generates a WNPAC through a Gill–Matsuno response. In comparison with the observational result, only one-third of the models (i.e., the type-I models) capture a weaker and smaller WNPAC, whereas the other two-thirds (i.e., the type-II models) fail to reproduce a WNPAC. The simulation biases in both of type-I models and type-II models mainly arise from an unrealistic, long-lasting CP El Nino warming, which causes a north Indian Ocean SST warming bias in models through air–sea interaction process. This north Indian Ocean SST warming generates the WNPAC through capacitor effects, which is different from the WNPAC formation mechanism in observations. This discrepancy leads to simulation biases in type-I models. In type-II models, the unrealistic CP El Nino warming persists into summer, which produces an anomalous cyclone over the central-western Pacific. The opposite effect of the CP and north Indian Ocean SST warming on the WNP atmospheric circulation leads to disappearance of the WNPAC. Hence, large simulation biases are produced in type-II models. Further analysis demonstrates the slow decay of CP El Nino is caused by the unrealistically simulated climatological SST, which creates strong warm meridional oceanic advection and results in a sustained CP El Nino warming.

Disentangling sea-surface temperature and anthropogenic aerosol influences on recent trends in South Asian monsoon rainfall

Recent studies point to combined effects of changes in regional land-use, anthropogenic aerosol forcing and sea surface temperature (SST) gradient on declining trends in the South Asian monsoon (SAM). This study attempted disentangling the effects produced by changes in SST gradient from those by aerosol levels in an atmospheric general circulation model. Two pairs of transient ensemble simulations were made, for a 40-year period from 1971 to 2010, with evolving versus climatological SSTs and with anthropogenic aerosol emissions fixed at 1971 versus 2010, in each case with evolution of the other forcing element, as well as GHGs. Evolving SST was linked to a widespread feedback on increased surface temperature, reduced land–sea thermal contrast and a weakened Hadley circulation, with weakening of cross-equatorial transport of moisture transport towards South Asia. Increases in anthropogenic aerosol levels (1971 versus 2010), led to an intensification of drying in the peninsular Indian region, through several regional pathways. Aerosol forcing induced north–south asymmetries in temperature and sea-level pressure response, and a cyclonic circulation in the Bay of Bengal, leading to an easterly flow, which opposes the monsoon flow, suppressing moisture transport over peninsular India. Further, aerosol induced decreases in convection, vertically integrated moisture flux convergence, evaporation flux and cloud fraction, in the peninsular region, were spatially congruent with reduced convective and stratiform rainfall. Overall, evolution of SST acted through a weakening of cross-equatorial moisture flow, while increases in aerosol levels acted through suppression of Arabian Sea moisture transport, as well as, of convection and vertical moisture transport, to influence the suppression of SAM rainfall.

Relative role of sea surface temperature and snow on Indian summer monsoon seasonal simulation using a GCM

Indian summer monsoon is a global scale phenomenon controlled by different land, ocean, and atmospheric parameters. Sea surface temperature (SST) and snow are two of the major parameters, which may alter the spatial and temporal patterns of circulation and rainfall during Indian summer monsoon. In the current paper, we study the monsoon variability using long integrations (20 years) of the Indian Institute of Technology Delhi (IITD) Spectral model at T80L18 resolution with observed and climatological SST and snow. Study shows response of IITD GCM in simulating the Indian summer monsoon rainfall and circulation relative to the snow and SST as boundary conditions. The model’s response to SST and snow is examined by conducting four types of experiments by varying observed and climatological values of snow and SST. This paper discusses the seasonal total rainfall for country as a whole and 850 and 200 hPa wind for the period of 20 years starting from 1985 to 2004. The model has been integrated in the ensemble mode with five different initial conditions from the last week of April and first week of May. The model is able to capture the climatological patterns of seasonal total rainfall and averaged wind at lower and upper levels. Observed snow in the presence of climatological SST as a boundary condition shows much impact on rainfall and circulation than observed SST in the presence of climatological snow. Model performance is good in simulating the normal and excess monsoon conditions; it shows poor skill in capturing deficit monsoon years.

Influence of the Pacific–Japan Pattern on Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall

Abstract This study discusses the impact of the Pacific–Japan (PJ) pattern on Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall and its possible physical linkages through coupled and uncoupled pathways. Empirical orthogonal function analysis of 850-hPa relative vorticity over the western North Pacific (WNP) is used to extract the PJ pattern as the leading mode of circulation variability. The partial correlation analysis of the leading principal component reveals that the positive PJ pattern, which features anticyclonic and cyclonic low-level circulation anomalies over the tropical WNP and around Japan respectively, enhances the rainfall over the southern and northern parts of India. The northwestward propagating Rossby waves, in response to intensified convection over the Maritime Continent reinforced by low-level convergence in the southern flank of westward extended tropical WNP anticyclone, increase rainfall over southern peninsular India. Meanwhile, the anomalous moisture transport from the warm Bay of Bengal due to anomalous southerlies at the western edge of the low-level anticyclone extending from the tropical WNP helps to enhance the rainfall over northern India. The atmospheric general circulation model forced with climatological sea surface temperature confirms this atmospheric pathway through the westward propagating Rossby waves. Furthermore, the north Indian Ocean (NIO) warming induced by easterly wind anomalies along the southern periphery of the tropical WNP–NIO anticyclone enhances local convection, which in turn feeds back to the WNP convection anomalies. This coupled nature via interbasin feedback between the PJ pattern and NIO is confirmed using coupled model sensitivity experiments. These results are important in identifying new sources of ISM variability/predictability on the interannual time scale.

Simulating Eastern- and Central-Pacific Type ENSO Using a Simple Coupled Model

Severe biases exist in state-of-the-art general circulation models (GCMs) in capturing realistic central-Pacific (CP) El Nino structures. At the same time, many observational analyses have emphasized that thermocline (TH) feedback and zonal advective (ZA) feedback play dominant roles in the development of eastern-Pacific (EP) and CP El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), respectively. In this work, a simple linear air–sea coupled model, which can accurately depict the strength distribution of the TH and ZA feedbacks in the equatorial Pacific, is used to investigate these two types of El Nino. The results indicate that the model can reproduce the main characteristics of CP ENSO if the TH feedback is switched off and the ZA feedback is retained as the only positive feedback, confirming the dominant role played by ZA feedback in the development of CP ENSO. Further experiments indicate that, through a simple nonlinear control approach, many ENSO characteristics, including the existence of both CP and EP El Nino and the asymmetries between El Nino and La Nina, can be successfully captured using the simple linear air–sea coupled model. These analyses indicate that an accurate depiction of the climatological sea surface temperature distribution and the related ZA feedback, which are the subject of severe biases in GCMs, is very important in simulating a realistic CP El Nino.

Linear and nonlinear winter atmospheric responses to extreme phases of low frequency Pacific sea surface temperature variability

This study examines Northern Hemisphere winter (DJFM) atmospheric responses to opposite strong phases of interdecadal (low frequency, LF) Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) forcing, which resembles El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on a longer time scale, in observations and GFDL and CAM4 model simulations. Over the Pacific–North America (PNA) sector, linear observed responses of 500-hPa height (Z500) anomalies resemble the PNA teleconnection pattern, but show a PNA-like nonlinear response because of a westward Z500 shift in the negative (LF−) relative to the positive LF (LF+) phase. Significant extratropical linear responses include a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like Z500 anomaly, a dipole-like Z500 anomaly over northern Eurasia associated with warming over mid-high latitude Eurasia, and a Southern Annular anomaly pattern associated with warming in southern land areas. Significant nonlinear Z500 responses also include a NAO-like anomaly pattern. Models forced by LF+ and LF− SST anomalies reproduce many aspects of observed linear and nonlinear responses over the Pacific–North America sector, and linear responses over southern land, but not in the North Atlantic–European sector and Eurasia. Both models simulate PNA-like linear responses in the North Pacific–North America region similar to observed, but show larger PNA-like LF+ responses, resulting in a PNA nonlinear response. The nonlinear PNA responses result from both nonlinear western tropical Pacific rainfall changes and extratropical transient eddy feedbacks. With LF tropical Pacific forcing only (LFTP+ and LFTP−, climatological SST elsewhere), CAM4 simulates a significant NAO response to LFTP−, including a linear negative and nonlinear positive NAO response.

Impact of ENSO longitudinal position on teleconnections to the NAO

While significant improvements have been made in understanding how the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impacts both North American and Asian climate, its relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) remains less clear. Observations indicate that ENSO exhibits a highly complex relationship with the NAO-associated atmospheric circulation. One critical contribution to this ambiguous ENSO/NAO relationship originates from ENSO’s diversity in its spatial structure. In general, both eastern (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Nino events tend to be accompanied by a negative NAO-like atmospheric response. However, for two different types of La Nina the NAO response is almost opposite. Thus, the NAO responses for the CP ENSO are mostly linear, while nonlinear NAO responses dominate for the EP ENSO. These contrasting extra-tropical atmospheric responses are mainly attributed to nonlinear air-sea interactions in the tropical eastern Pacific. The local atmospheric response to the CP ENSO sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies is highly linear since the air-sea action center is located within the Pacific warm pool, characterized by relatively high climatological SSTs. In contrast, the EP ENSO SST anomalies are located in an area of relatively low climatological SSTs in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Here only sufficiently high positive SST anomalies during EP El Nino events are able to overcome the SST threshold for deep convection, while hardly any anomalous convection is associated with EP La Nina SSTs that are below this threshold. This ENSO/NAO relationship has important implications for NAO seasonal prediction and places a higher requirement on models in reproducing the full diversity of ENSO.

Intraseasonal Variability of the Indian Monsoon as Simulated by a Global Model

This study uses the global forecast system (GFS) model at T126 horizontal resolution to carry out seasonal simulations with prescribed sea-surface temperatures. Main objectives of the study are to evaluate the simulated Indian monsoon variability in intraseasonal timescales. The GFS model has been integrated for 29 monsoon seasons with 15 member ensembles forced with observed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) and additional 16-member ensemble runs have been carried out using climatological SSTs. Northward propagation of intraseasonal rainfall anomalies over the Indian region from the model simulations has been examined. It is found that the model is unable to simulate the observed moisture pattern when the active zone of convection is over central India. However, the model simulates the observed pattern of specific humidity during the life cycle of northward propagation on day − 10 and day + 10 of maximum convection over central India. The space–time spectral analysis of the simulated equatorial waves shows that the ensemble members have varying amount of power in each band of wavenumbers and frequencies. However, variations among ensemble members are more in the antisymmetric component of westward moving waves and maximum difference in power is seen in the 8–20 day mode among ensemble members.

Tropical Cyclone Activity in the High‐Resolution Community Earth System Model and the Impact of Ocean Coupling

AbstractHigh‐resolution Atmosphere General Circulation Models (AGCMs) are capable of directly simulating realistic tropical cyclone (TC) statistics, providing a promising approach for TC‐climate studies. Active air‐sea coupling in a coupled model framework is essential to capturing TC‐ocean interactions, which can influence TC‐climate connections on interannual to decadal time scales. Here we investigate how the choices of ocean coupling can affect the directly simulated TCs using high‐resolution configurations of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). We performed a suite of high‐resolution, multidecadal, global‐scale CESM simulations in which the atmosphere (∼0.25° grid spacing) is configured with three different levels of ocean coupling: prescribed climatological sea surface temperature (SST) (ATM), mixed layer ocean (SLAB), and dynamic ocean (CPL). We find that different levels of ocean coupling can influence simulated TC frequency, geographical distributions, and storm intensity. ATM simulates more storms and higher overall storm intensity than the coupled simulations. It also simulates higher TC track density over the eastern Pacific and the North Atlantic, while TC tracks are relatively sparse within CPL and SLAB for these regions. Storm intensification and the maximum wind speed are sensitive to the representations of local surface flux feedbacks in different coupling configurations. Key differences in storm number and distribution can be attributed to variations in the modeled large‐scale climate mean state and variability that arise from the combined effect of intrinsic model biases and air‐sea interactions. Results help to improve our understanding about the representation of TCs in high‐resolution coupled Earth system models, with important implications for TC‐climate applications.

The connection between the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and the Indian summer monsoon in CMIP5 models

A number of observational and modeling studies have shown a co-relationship between higher than normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the North Atlantic and increased summer precipitation over India. However, discrepancies among the models make the robustness of the results debatable. This study examines the connections between the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) and the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) in 66 “Historical” runs of 22 coupled models that were part of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Diverse results are obtained, and correlation coefficients between the AMO and ISM range from − 0.39 to 0.66. Only 10 out of 66 members (~ 15%) show a positive correlation statistically significant at the 90% level (> 0.42), close to the observation (0.5). The models with positive AMO–ISM correlations show an AMO-related atmospheric teleconnection that involves an extratropical–tropical SST gradient in the North Pacific, as well as a more regional temperature difference between the Indian subcontinent and the tropical Indian Ocean. In comparison, the models with negative correlations fail to capture these teleconnections. Moreover, the models with higher climatological precipitation over the tropical Atlantic and warmer climatological SST in the tropical Atlantic and the North Pacific relative to multi-member ensemble, as well as a weak westerly jet, perform better at reproducing the observed teleconnections.

Mechanisms for the Maintenance of the Wintertime Basin-Scale Atmospheric Response to Decadal SST Variability in the North Pacific Subarctic Frontal Zone

Abstract Mechanisms for the maintenance of a large-scale wintertime atmospheric response to warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with decadal-scale poleward displacement of the North Pacific subarctic frontal zone (SAFZ) are investigated through the following two ensemble experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM): one with climatological-mean SST and the other with positive SST anomalies along the SAFZ prescribed on top of the climatological-mean SST. As actually observed, the simulated January ensemble response over the North Pacific is anticyclonic throughout the depth of the troposphere, although its amplitude is smaller. This response is maintained through energy conversion from the ensemble climatological-mean circulation realized under the climatological SST as well as feedback from anomalous transient eddy activity, suggesting that the response may have characteristics as a preferred mode of variability (or “dynamical mode”). Conversions of both available potential energy and kinetic energy from the climatological-mean state are important for the observed anomaly, while the latter is less pronounced for the model response. Net transient feedback forcing is also important for both the observed anomaly and simulated response. These results imply that a moderate-resolution (~1°) AGCM may be able to simulate a basin-scale atmospheric response to the SAFZ SST anomaly through synoptic- and basin-scale dynamical processes. Weaker PNA-like internal variability in the model may lead to the weaker response, suggesting that misrepresentation of intrinsic atmospheric variability can affect the model response to the SST anomaly.

Unique relationship between tropical rainfall and SST to the north of the Mozambique Channel in boreal winter

ABSTRACTIn this study, we investigate a possible mechanism for the dichotomy in climatology of marine rainfall and sea surface temperature (SST) over a part of the Southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) during boreal winter (January and February) with state‐of‐the‐art satellite and reanalysis data sets. Rainfall to the north of the Mozambique Channel, bounded 10°–5°S and 40°–50°E, is found to be quite feeble despite being in the warm SST regime of up to 29–29.5 °C. The rainfall intensity is rather found to be highly associated with the atmospheric surface divergence. The vigorous rainfall is associated with the more convergence over the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), while the weak rainfall is linked with the divergence to the north of the Mozambique Channel. The surface divergent flow to the north of the Mozambique Channel is associated with a deep southward penetration of the northerly Indian Winter Monsoon (IWM). Corresponding to the surface divergent field, a relatively high sea level pressure (SLP) compared to the SLP in the ITCZ, weak subsidence, and low‐level stratiform clouds are formed to the north of the Mozambique Channel, despite the warm, tropical SST. These atmospheric conditions are most likely conductive to the inhibition of cumulus convection over the region and the unique relationship between rainfall and SST seems peculiar. Our analysis also shows that the rare occurrence of tropical cyclones over the area is attributed to a high‐pressure surge and the associated positive surface vorticity (anti‐cyclonic). This study suggests that the area to the north of the Mozambique Channel is dynamically interesting for climatological studies.

Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in Superparameterized CAM in Response to Warmer SSTs

Subdaily temperature and precipitation extremes in response to warmer SSTs are investigated on a global scale using the superparameterized (SP) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM), in which a cloud-resolving model is embedded in each CAM grid column to simulate convection explicitly. Two 10-yr simulations have been performed using present climatological sea surface temperature (SST) and perturbed SST climatology derived from the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. Compared with the conventional CAM, SP-CAM simulates colder temperatures and more realistic intensity distribution of precipitation, especially for heavy precipitation. The temperature and precipitation extremes have been defined by the 99th percentile of the 3-hourly data. For temperature, the changes in the warm and cold extremes are generally consistent between CAM and SP-CAM, with larger changes in warm extremes at low latitudes and larger changes in cold extremes at mid-to-high latitudes. For precipitation, CAM predicts a uniform increase of frequency of precipitation extremes regardless of the rain rate, while SP-CAM predicts a monotonic increase of frequency with increasing rain rate and larger change of intensity for heavier precipitation. The changes in 3-hourly and daily temperature extremes are found to be similar; however, the 3-hourly precipitation extremes have a significantly larger change than daily extremes. The Clausius–Clapeyron scaling is found to be a relatively good predictor of zonally averaged changes in precipitation extremes over midlatitudes but not as good over the tropics and subtropics. The changes in precipitable water and large-scale vertical velocity are equally important to explain the changes in precipitation extremes.

Analyses of the Positive Bias of Remotely Sensed SST Retrievals in the Coastal Waters of Rio de Janeiro

This paper analyzes the large positive bias of sea surface temperature (SST) retrievals of selected remotely sensed algorithms recorded during the simultaneous occurrence of upwelling and atmospheric subsidence along the coastal waters of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The optimal estimator (OE) for retrieving SST and the multichannel (MCSST) and nonlinear (NLSST) estimators are compared using Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer-3 data. The in situ SST (SSTbuoy) data set used to validate the remotely sensed SST retrievals was collected from five moored buoys (four in the open sea and one in coastal waters). The principal results of this paper are as follows. First, the sensitivity analyses show that OE is quite susceptible to the first-guess SST rather than to the humidity profiles. Second, the comparison between the SSTOE and 365 cloud-free SSTbuoy measurements in open sea waters presents an root mean squared error (RMSE), bias, and standard deviation (STD) with the intervals of [0.5, 0.6], [−0.51, 0.13], and [0.27, 0.48], respectively. Third, the MCSST, NLSST, and OE SST produce a positive bias that can reach 5 K during simultaneous upwelling and atmospheric subsidence in coastal waters. Such unexpected errors are due to low SST values and water vapor compression in the lower layer of the atmosphere related to a temperature inversion. Fourth, an alternative approach using SSTbuoy obtained on the previous day as a first guess instead of the climatological SST significantly improves the errors (SSTOE–SSTbuoy) by reducing RMSE, bias, and STD by 58% (from 3.30 to 1.39 K), 73% (from 3.00 to 0.80 K), and 19% (from 1.38 to 1.12 K), respectively.

Scale Dependence of Midlatitude Air–Sea Interaction

Abstract It has traditionally been thought that midlatitude sea surface temperature (SST) variability is predominantly driven by variations in air–sea surface heat fluxes (SHFs) associated with synoptic weather variability. Here it is shown that in regions marked by the highest climatological SST gradients and SHF loss to the atmosphere, the variability in SST and SHF at monthly and longer time scales is driven by internal ocean processes, termed here “oceanic weather.” This is shown within the context of an energy balance model of coupled air–sea interaction that includes both stochastic forcing for the atmosphere and ocean. The functional form of the lagged correlation between SST and SHF allows us to discriminate between variability that is driven by atmospheric versus oceanic weather. Observations show that the lagged functional relationship of SST–SHF and SST tendency–SHF correlation is indicative of ocean-driven SST variability in the western boundary currents (WBCs) and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). By applying spatial and temporal smoothing, thereby dampening the signature SST anomalies generated by eddy stirring, it is shown that the oceanic influence on SST variability increases with time scale but decreases with increasing spatial scale. The scale at which SST variability in the WBCs and the ACC transitions from ocean to atmosphere driven occurs at scales less than 500 km. This transition scale highlights the need to resolve mesoscale eddies in coupled climate models to adequately simulate the variability of air–sea interaction. Away from strong SST fronts the lagged functional relationships are indicative of the traditional paradigm of atmospherically driven SST variability.

A reduction in the asymmetry of ENSO amplitude due to global warming: The role of atmospheric feedback

AbstractThis study analyzes a reduction in the asymmetry of El Niño Southern–Oscillation (ENSO) amplitude due to global warming in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 models. The multimodel‐averaged Niño3 skewness during December–February season decreased approximately 40% in the RCP4.5 scenario compared to that in the historical simulation. The change in the nonlinear relationship between sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation is a key factor for understanding the reduction in ENSO asymmetry due to global warming. In the historical simulations, the background SST leading to the greatest precipitation sensitivity (SST for Maximum Precipitation Sensitivity, SST_MPS) occurs when the positive SST anomaly is located over the equatorial central Pacific. Therefore, an increase in climatological SST due to global warming weakens the atmospheric response during El Niño over the central Pacific. However, the climatological SST over this region in the historical simulation is still lower than the SST_MPS for the negative SST anomaly; therefore, a background SST increase due to global warming can further increase precipitation sensitivity. The atmospheric feedbacks during La Niña are enhanced and increase the La Niña amplitude due to global warming.

Potential impact of sea surface temperature on rainfall over the western Philippines

ᅟThe study used a 5 km-resolution regional climate model, the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting Model, to quantify the potential impact of sea surface temperature (SST) west of the Philippines on summer monsoon rainfall on the northwestern coast of the country. A set of control simulations (CTL) driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis data and the monthly National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Optimum Interpolation SST dataset was performed for the months of June to August of 1982–2012. A second set of simulations driven by climatological SST values was performed for the same period. The difference between these two simulation sets is analyzed to determine the sensitivity of rainfall to interannual variations in local SST, not remote SST, via a regional climate model. The CTL simulations represented spatial and temporal variations in rainfall well, yielding realistic climatological rainfall values with high spatial correlations with observations. The interannual correlation of monthly rainfall over the northwestern region of the Philippines was also high when compared to observations. The results showed that positive SST anomalies west of the Philippines induced positive rainfall anomalies in the northwestern Philippines via an increase in latent heat flux from the sea surface, implying that summer monsoon rainfall in the northwestern Philippines is modulated by interannual variations in SST west of the Philippines. The impact of SST on latent heat flux and rainfall were 20–40%, greatly exceeding the 7% approximation from the Clausius–Clapeyron equation, which can be explained by the enhancement of low-level winds and a weak warming of surface air temperature over the ocean.