Climatic Variations Research Articles

El Niño and positive Indian Ocean Dipole conditions simultaneously reduce the production of multiple cereals across India

Abstract Natural climate phenomena like El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) influence the Indian monsoon and thereby the region’s agricultural systems. Understanding their influence can provide seasonal predictability of agricultural production metrics to inform decision-making and mitigate potential food security challenges. Here, we analyze the effects of ENSO and IOD on four agricultural production metrics (production, harvested area, irrigated area, and yields) for rice, maize, sorghum, pearl millet, and finger millet across India from 1968 to 2015. El Niños and positive-IODs are associated with simultaneous reductions in the production and yields of multiple crops. Impacts vary considerably by crop and geography. Maize and pearl millet experience large declines in both production and yields when compared to other grains in districts located in the northwest and southern peninsular regions. Associated with warmer and drier conditions during El Niño, >70% of all crop districts experience lower production and yields. Impacts of positive-IODs exhibit relatively more spatial variability. La Niña and negative-IODs are associated with simultaneous increases in all production metrics across the crops, particularly benefiting traditional grains. Variations in impacts of ENSO and IOD on different cereals depend on where they are grown and differences in their sensitivity to climate conditions. We compare production metrics for each crop relative to rice in overlapping rainfed districts to isolate the influence of climate conditions. Maize production and yields experience larger reductions relative to rice, while pearl millet production and yields also experience reductions relative to rice during El Niños and positive-IODs. However, sorghum experiences enhanced production and harvested areas, and finger millet experiences enhanced production and yields. These findings suggest that transitioning from maize and rice to these traditional cereals could lower interannual production variability associated with natural climate variations.

A Detailed Sedimentological Analysis of Colour Lake, Axel Heiberg Island, Nunavut

This research project examines sediments in Colour Lake, a non-glacial lake on Axel Heiberg Island in the Canadian High Arctic. Analyzing the mineralogical composition, structural morphology and deposition patterns of the accumulated lake sediments provides information about the depositional environment and can serve as proxies for past environmental conditions. Work focused primarily on a 53 cm long sediment core collected in 2019. The objectives were: (1) to document distinct sediment units and interpret their depositional history by high resolution image analysis and microscopic observations in thin sections; (2) to identify schwertmannite, an iron oxyhydroxy-sulfate mineral within the sediments using scanning electron microscopy and x-ray fluorescence (XRF); (3) to determine this mineral’s relationship with siliciclastic deposits; and (4) to establish sediment chronology by 210Pb and 137Cs dating. Data was organized into pollen charts, incorporating images, scans, sediment stratigraphy, and grain size distributions to better understand sediment layers and their positions within the core. Thirteen lithozones were identified based on observed variations in the core, differing in terms of mud and clay lens distribution, the presence of schwertmannite, lamination patterns (graded or non-graded detrital laminations), the occurrence of biological components, and detrital mineral grain sizes. A recurring lithozone featuring non-graded, amorphous clay with schwertmannite, typically overlying either graded or reverse-graded mud, was observed throughout the core. While the mechanisms responsible for sediment deposition have not been fully explored, they are suspected to be related to hyperpycnal flows and slumping events. An Intervaled Sediment Extruder (ISE) was developed for precise sediment extrusion from a core collected in July for 210Pb and 137Cs dating, which will constrain sedimentation rates and correlate depositional events with past environmental conditions. Future work will focus on linking sediment structures to climatic events, identifying annually laminated layers (varves), and completing dating analyses to better understand past climate variations.

Do Climate Change Matter for Agricultural Production in an era of Globalization? Empirical Insights from Pakistan

The purpose of current research is to examine the “sunspot theory” of business cycles in the case of Pakistan in the globalization scenario. The current research uses time-series data from 1980 to 2021. To find out the impact of Climatic variation on agricultural Production, the NARDL technique is used for the estimation of results. Results confirmed that CO2 emissions and mean temperature show an asymmetric effect on Agricultural production. Variations in CO2 emissions and mean temperature pose mixed results about agricultural production both in the long-run and short-run in different globalization scenarios. Further, through discussion, it is confirmed that this decrease in agricultural production due to climatic variation has slowed down the economic activity in an economy. Based on the results, it is recommended that government must expand tree planting projects and maintain greenery at all costs. The problem is expected to worsen as the temperature rises and the population grows. Agriculture producers must be taught new and sophisticated agricultural and cultivation practices. To address the issue of water scarcity, the government of Pakistan must construct more dams and reservoirs to give farmers greater access to water. The last but not least, this research confirmed the validity of the sunspot theory in the case of Pakistan.

A framework for drought monitoring and assessment from a drought propagation perspective under non-stationary environments

According to the coupled influence of climate variation and anthropogenic activities, hydro-meteorological variables are hard to keep stationary in a changing environment. Consequently, the efficacy of traditional standardized drought indices, predicated upon the assumption of stationarity, has been called into question. In China, the challenge of drought monitoring and declaration is exacerbated by the need for multiple drought indices covering meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and groundwater aspects, often lacking real-time availability. To address these challenges, we developed a framework for drought monitoring and assessment from a drought propagation perspective. Central to this is the Nonstationary Integrated Drought Index (NIDI), which integrates responses from meteorological, agricultural, hydrological, and groundwater droughts, accounting for climate change and anthropogenic influences. First, we analyse the process of drought propagation to select the suitable time scale standardized drought index. Subsequently, significant large-scale climatic indices are selected through linear and nonlinear correlation analyses to identify climate anomalies. Anthropogenic influences are assessed using indicators such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Impervious Surface Ratio (ISR), and population density (POP). Nonstationary probability models are then developed for precipitation, soil moisture, runoff, and groundwater series, incorporating climatic and human-induced factors. Finally, the NIDI is calculated using a D-vine copula model, with parameter estimation and updating facilitated by a genetic algorithm, representing the temporal dependence structure among the variables. A case study in the Hulu River Basin of western China validated the NIDI. Results showed that the NIDI effectively accounts for nonstationary hydro-meteorological variables due to climate change and human activities, accurately reproducing their time-dependent structure. Compared to conventional indices like SPI, SSI, SRI, and SGI, the NIDI identifies more extreme drought events. In conclusion, the presented NIDI offers a more comprehensive approach to drought identification, providing valuable insights for accurate drought detection and effective drought-related policy-making.

Dominant features of phasic evolutions in the winter Arctic-midlatitude linkage since 1979

Abstract Over the past decades, the Arctic-midlatitude linkage has been extensively explored. Recent studies have suggested that the characteristics of phasic evolutions in the relationship between the Arctic warming and midlatitudes remain elusive. Therefore, this study systematically investigates this issue by using running empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and moving correlation, and the results show a phasic alternation process in the relationship between the tropospheric thickness over the Barents-Kara Seas (BKS) and East Asian temperature, characterized by a phasic weak (P1: 1979-2000)–strong (P2: 2001-2011)–weak (P3: 2012-2021) connection. Our results highlight that since the winter of 2010, despite the Arctic sea ice being in an exceptionally reduced phase and continuous Arctic warming, the Arctic-midlatitude connection has not exhibited sustained strengthening relative to P2 phase. Moreover, it is found that changes of the connection between the BKS warming and the East Asian winter Monsoon may contribute to this phasic evolution, and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) plays an important role in modulating their phasic evolutions. The conclusions of this study help to deepen our understanding of the evolution of the strength and weakness of the relationship between Arctic warming and climate variations in midlatitudes.

Environmental and ecological drivers of eye size variation in a freshwater predator: A trade‐off between foraging and predation risk

Abstract Variations in the size and shape of the eye have been observed in many species of fish. As eye size is positively related to visual acuity, larger eyes should favour foraging and detection of predators. However, few studies have examined the variation in eye morphology in relation to the complexity of lake conditions, including environmental perturbation and spatial variation in predation and competition. Such tests are especially important as the degrading of the visual climate is expected due to climate change, where browning, turbidity and variations in structural complexity should set different demands for visual acuity of foraging fish under predation risk. In this study, we tested the variation of the eye size among 667 individuals of an aquatic predator perch, Perca fluviatilis, from littoral and pelagic habitats of 14 lakes. We used Secchi depth to assess the effects of the visual climate of our lake systems, as fish foraging is highly related to visual conditions, and studied eye size variation in relation to the contribution of the pelagic resources to an individual's diet and the risk of predation. Secchi depth, the pelagic contribution to the diet and the percentage of piscivores had significant effects on eye size. These variable outcomes suggest that the lake environment in terms of visual climate, predation landscape and diet are major factors of eye size variation in this generalist predator. As many fish species trade off foraging against predation risk, future studies will show whether the complexity of intra‐ and interspecific interactions contribute to the variation in eye size in freshwater fish. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

Assessing the Effects of Drought on Livestock Farming Livelihoods in Western Odisha: A Study of Drought and Non Drought Years

The irregular climatic variation, which is causing drought, flood, cyclone, etc., across the globe is increasingly affecting the livestock rearing leading to great distress to livestock farmers financially, socially and economically during the above periods [1,2]. Drought is a recurring phenomenon in Western Odisha, posing significant threats to the livelihoods of livestock farmers. This study investigates the effects of drought on the livelihoods of livestock farmers in the region, exploring the socio-economic and environmental implications. A mixed-methods approach was employed, combining surveys, interviews, and focus group discussions with 72 livestock farmers. Results show that drought leads to reduced livestock productivity, decreased income, and diminished food security. Farmers' coping strategies, such as distress sales of assets and migration, exacerbate their vulnerability. The study highlights the need for drought-specific livestock management practices, improved access to credit and insurance, and enhanced extension services to support climate-resilient livelihoods. The study further revealed that animal rearing in the drought affected areas provides a sense of food security, social status and ability to meet the expenses in social rituals. By understanding the impact of drought on livestock farmers' livelihoods, this research aims to inform targeted interventions to enhance their resilience and adaptive capacity. Therefore, the Government of Odisha may initiate serious efforts to promote animal husbandry activities in these districts to support the farmers to negate the adverse impact of drought and to check the distress migration from these districts during the drought period. Policy recommendations include integrating livestock support into drought relief programs and promoting water harvesting and conservation practices.

Humans and climate in ritualized landscapes, the case of Lake Tota in the eastern highlands of Colombia

Tota is an Andean lake located in the Altiplano of the Eastern Andes of Colombia where socio-politically hierarchical societies of the Herrera and Muisca, flourished for millennia. To them, the lake and surrounding forest were places used for diverse of activities including religious rituals. In this study we produced a multi-proxy paleolimnological reconstruction using diatoms, isotopes, and geochemistry, to try to understand the lake’s pathways of change in response to natural climatic variations and anthropogenic activities. The diatom record is dominated by tychoplanktonic Staurosirella dubia and planktonic Aulacoseira species including species A. cf lirata, A. granulata, A. distans, and A. ambigua. Diatoms were grouped into functional groups and used to infer limnological changes that were further complemented with the geochemistry of the sediments to reconstruct the past environment. Results show three main periods in which the lake changed significantly, these are dated from ~800 to 1200, 1200 to 1500, and 1500 to 1900 CE. A correlation with the archeological record of the region, ethnohistoric accounts and climate suggests that these changes occurred simultaneously with changes in archeological stages, the Spanish arrival, and more recently by the industrial revolution, and the Little Ice Age.

Assessing the Features of PV System’s Data and the Soiling Effects on PV System’s Performance Based on the Field Data

This paper assesses the features/characteristics of a photovoltaic system’s data, investigates the relationship between the soiling and solar panel performance, and leverages real-world data obtained from a solar site in Shams Solar Facility located at the German University of Technology in Oman. Through an experimental approach, different parameters were scrutinized to unravel the dynamics at play. Due to the lack of studies on how to assess the features of a PV System’s data, and in order to model the PV System’s data, extensive analyses were conducted based on a big dataset containing 36,851 observations of each parameter (environmental factors) of the study. In addition, diverse environmental factors, operational conditions, and the collected data were analyzed by various mathematical/statistical measures, and inferential statistical measures were applied to obtain accurate and significant results that explain the level of each parameter (environmental factors), and are developed to examine the features/characteristics and performance of PV Systems and reveal the influence of soiling accumulation on the energy output. The research findings do not only deepen the understanding of the features of PV Systems data and the impact of soiling on solar panels, but also underscore the significance of considering geographical and climatic variations. This research contributes significantly to advancing knowledge within the realm of solar energy systems and provides actionable insights for optimizing the performance and reliability of PV installations in real-world settings. The discussion, conclusions, limitations, and future directions have been discussed.

Geography and associated bioclimatic factors differentially affect leaf phenolics in three ivy species (Hedera L.) across the Iberian Peninsula

The biosynthesis of secondary metabolites in plants, especially that of phenolic compounds, is stimulated to protect against several environmental stress factors such as cold temperatures, drought, and UV-irradiance. As a result, when a species occurs under different climatic conditions, differences in phenolic accumulation are expected across species distribution in response to the environmental cues. However, our understanding of phenolic compounds' natural variation is limited, as most of our knowledge on secondary metabolite biosynthesis stems from experimental studies conducted under controlled conditions. In this study we analyze phenolic content and its relation to climatic and geographic variation in three closely related Hedera species (H. helix, H. hibernica and H. iberica) across their southwestern range limits in the Iberian Peninsula (82 populations, 401 individuals). The Iberian Peninsula concentrates the highest global species richness of Hedera, with the three species sharing range boundaries along the latitudinal and longitudinal climatic gradient of the region. We found that the three species exhibited different climatic and geographic patterns of phenolic content variation in the study area. The phenolic production in H. helix increased with elevation in relation to the decrease of temperature and the increase of temperature contrast, whereas in H. hibernica varies with latitude in relation to summer temperature and precipitation regimes, increasing in areas with no summer drought. In contrast, we did not find any environmental variables associated with phenolic content in H. iberica, likely due to its narrow geographic and climatic range and a higher influence of microclimatic conditions. Although the three Hedera species are closely related, our results suggest that leaf phenolic production may be triggered by different environmental conditions in each species. Our study underscores the species-specific nature of phenolic compounds' role in plant stress response.

Spatial and Temporal Variations of Climate Resources during the Growing Season of Early-Season Rice in Hunan Province

The rising temperatures and changes in precipitation due to climate change have significantly impacted agricultural production. Evaluating the effects of climate change on rice production is crucial for improving rice cultivation techniques and ensuring food security. It is essential to comprehensively examine the climatic, spatial, and temporal variations during the duration of crop production. Previous research has mainly focused on different rice planting areas, rice types, and various growth stages of rice. However, more research is needed on the climatic changes during the crop-growing season in specific regions. Therefore, this study compiled complete daily meteorological data from 37 meteorological stations in Hunan Province from 1961 to 2020. The period from 1961 to 2020 was divided into three segments: 1961–1980 (a), 1981–2000 (b), and 2001–2020 (c), to analyze the characteristics of agricultural climate resource changes during different growth stages of early-season rice in Hunan Province. Results show that the heat resources were significantly increased (accumulated temperature growth rate of 43.36 °C/10a), the sunshine resources were decreased by −14.60 h/10a, and the precipitation resources were slightly increased by 6.85 mm/10a. The increase in heat resources mainly occurs during the vegetative growth stage of early-season rice. Additionally, the high-value regions of heat resources and precipitation in period c are 97.8% and 34.2% higher than the average values of periods a and b, respectively. In contrast, the regions with high sunshine hours significantly decreased in period c compared to periods a and b. In summary, the heat, sunshine, and water resources in the central and eastern regions of Hunan Province increase simultaneously, and appropriate cultivation measures should be adopted in the future to improve the yield and resource utilization efficiency of early-season rice in a double-cropping system.

Diatom dynamics during the last six centuries in Lake Odensjön: a new varved sediment record from southern Sweden

AbstractVarved lake sediments offer valuable insight into past environmental conditions with high temporal resolution and precise chronological control. A combination of diatom and geochemical analyses of the recently deposited sediments of Odensjön, a small dimictic lake in southern Sweden, shows alternating light and dark laminae composed of greater amounts of biogenic silica and organic matter, respectively. As confirmed by independent radiometric dating and Pb pollution data, and supported by scanning electron microscopy of individual laminae, these features represent ongoing deposition of biogenic varves. Corresponding diatom and geochemical data obtained from a 92-cm long freeze core provide evidence of substantial lake-ecosystem dynamics during the last six centuries, related mainly to variations in light penetration and wind shear driven by human-induced changes in catchment vegetation. The diatom assemblage of Odensjön’s varved sediments is dominated by planktonic species, primarily Asterionella formosa, Fragilaria saxoplanktonica and Discostella lacuskarluki during periods of forest cover, while increased catchment openness from the mid-1500s to the late 1800s led to increased abundance of Lindavia comensis. Long-term variations in climate and land use, mediated through changing length of the ice-cover season and nutrient input, respectively, probably contributed to the observed trends, as well as to variations in the appearance and visibility of the varve record across the sampled sediment sequence. Odensjön represents the southernmost varved sediment record in Fennoscandia documented to date, offering potential to study the effects of various types of external forcing on its sensitive lacustrine ecosystem since the Late Weichselian deglaciation. In the present study, we investigated the possibility of assessing the local impacts of two major, historically documented volcanic events, Laki 1783–84 and Tambora 1815, which are known to have affected European societies. Although the mildly alkaline waters of the lake are well buffered and hence relatively resilient to volcanic acid deposition, a minor response to the Laki eruption may be recorded in the diatom stratigraphy.

Pure and mixed Scots pine forests showed divergent responses to climate variation and increased intrinsic water use efficiency across a European-wide climate gradient

AbstractThe present study examined Pinus sylvestris L. growth responses to climatic variations and its relationship with intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) across a water availability gradient and also in pure P. sylvestris and P. sylvestris-Quercus species mixed forests. Study sites were selected in the Mediterranean, temperate, and temperate continental climates in Spain, Italy, and Poland, respectively. A combined tree-ring dendrochronological and stable carbon isotope analysis was used to assess the relationship between tree growth and climate variation. Results showed that P. sylvestris growth is critically affected by summer water availability, regardless of study site and species mixing. Warming temperatures during the early growing season benefit tree growth in Mediterranean and temperate continental climates, while no significant effect was observed in the temperate climatic conditions. At the Mediterranean site, trees in mixed stands showed enhanced growth during wet years when moisture is not limiting. At the temperate continental site, trees in the mixed stand grew at a lower rate than those in pure stands, which suggests that intense interspecific competition for water could overwhelm the benefits of species mixing. Also, we found a divergent growth-iWUE relationship of non-significant and significantly positive and significantly negative correlations at the Polish, Italian, and Spanish sites, respectively. Overall, the negative growth-iWUE relationship at the drier Mediterranean site signifies the risk of tree growth decline, particularly in drier climate conditions. Despite that, elevated iWUE levels would benefit tree radial growth when water is not limited and the admixing tree species have compatible light and water use strategies.

Merging modelled and reported flood impacts in Europe in a combined flood event catalogue for 1950–2020

Abstract. Long-term trends in flood losses are regulated by multiple factors including climate variation, demographic dynamics, economic growth, land-use transitions, reservoir construction and flood risk reduction measures. The attribution of those drivers through the use of counterfactual scenarios of hazard, exposure or vulnerability first requires a good representation of historical events, including their location, their intensity and the factual circumstances in which they occurred. Here, we develop a chain of models that is capable of recreating riverine, coastal and compound floods in Europe between 1950 and 2020 that had a potential to cause significant socioeconomic impacts. This factual catalogue of almost 15 000 such events was scrutinized with historical records of flood impacts. We found that at least 10 % of them led to significant socioeconomic impacts (including fatalities) according to available sources. The model chain was able to capture events responsible for 96 % of known impacts contained in the Historical Analysis of Natural Hazards in Europe (HANZE) flood impact database in terms of persons affected and economic losses and for 81 % of fatalities. The dataset enables the study of the drivers of vulnerability and flood adaptation due to a large sample of events with historical impact data. The model chain can be further used to generate counterfactual events, especially those related to climate change and human influence on catchments.

Drying and wetting trend in Xinjiang and related circulations background over the past 60 years

The study of climate variability and trend provides important evidence for water resource management strategies in Xinjiang. The scientific community has systematically studied the ‘warming and wetting’ process in the Xinjiang region. However, significant controversy persists regarding whether this trend has stagnated, and there remains a gap in understanding the decadal climate variability across different seasons within the subregions of Xinjiang. Here, we analyzed the spatiotemporal characteristics of seasonal-to-annual climate variations in Southern and Northern Xinjiang over the past 60 years by the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI-3) and identified the change points of mean and trend changes in the SPEI series and further explored the atmospheric circulation patterns before and after the transition from dry/wet conditions. Specifically, although the mean change point test indicated a wetter climate after 1986 at both the annual and seasonal scales, the trend analysis showed a shift from wet to dry from 1996, which has persisted until the present. There were significant interdecadal features in the spatial distribution of SPEI. Xinjiang exhibited a predominantly dry pattern from 1961 to 1980, which changed to a wetter pattern from 1981 to 2000, Xinjiang experienced its wettest decade from 1991 to 2000, and the whole region returned to a drier pattern from 2001 to 2020. From the annual and seasonal variation, the rate of change is greater in the south, with stronger change amplitude in summer and autumn and a higher frequency of anomalous SPEI. The results of the atmospheric circulation analysis demonstrated that the net water vapor flux in the Xinjiang region increased by about 8.30 g·kg−1·m·s−1 in the period 1987–2020 compared to 1961–1986 due to the combined interaction of high-, mid-, and low-latitude systems with the Central Asian low-pressure system. The results indicated a sharp increase in aridification in Xinjiang, providing valuable insights for disaster prevention, mitigation, and risk management related to regional drought hazards.

"Two zones and three centers" distribution and suitable areas shift of an evergreen oak in subtropical China under climate scenarios.

Understanding the impact of climate change on the geographical distribution of species is a fundamental requirement for biodiversity conservation and resource management. Quercus oxyphylla, an evergreen oak endemic to China, plays a crucial role in maintaining the ecological stability in subtropical regions and high economic value attributed to its dark and high-density heartwood, but the existing resources are close to endangered. Currently, limited knowledge exists regarding its distribution and potential influences of climate change on suitable areas. This study utilized 63 occurrence records and Biomod2 platform, to predict changes in suitable areas for Q. oxyphylla under future climate change. The results revealed that (1) Q. oxyphylla showed a pattern of three disjunctive geographical centers in the eastern subregion of subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest region (IVA): Qinling-Daba Mountains, Nanling Mountains and Wuyi Mountains center. Currently, the highly suitable areas concentrated in two zones divided by the Yangtze River, that is, the northern subtropical evergreen and deciduous broad-leaved forest zone (IVAii) and the mid-subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forest zone (IVAi). (2) The temperature-related variables, such as annual temperature range (Bio7), the mean diurnal range (Bio2), and annual mean temperature (Bio1), were identified as the key determinants of the distribution pattern. Because of its considerable climatic variations in temperature and water conditions, Q. oxyphylla's habitat displayed a wider climate niche and strong physiological tolerance to climate change. (3) Under future climate scenarios, the suitable area of the species was expected to overall expand with significant regional differences. The suitable area in IVAi was expected to expand significantly northward while that in IVAii was expected to gradually shrink. To address the impact of climate change, it is necessary to develop conservation plans focused around the three distribution centers, implement localized and regional conservation policies, and conduct educational outreach among local people.

Suitability of Protected Structures for Round the Year Vegetables Cultivation

The fully and partially controlled protected structures can be constructed for providing suitable microclimates for cultivation of vegetables. The fixed and operating cost of protected structures affects the profitability of cultivated vegetables. In this study protected structures i.e. shade net structure, insect proof net structure and polyhouse were constructed to study its suitability for round the year vegetables i.e. tomato and capsicum cultivation. Based on minimum and maximum temperature, it is found that shade net structure can be used only during summer season, insect proof net can be used during winter season and polyhouse can be used during winter and rainy season. Due to variation of open field micro climate round the year and different working principle of protected structures, not a single structure is found suitable for round the year cultivation of tomato and capsicum.

Uneven changes in air and crown temperatures associated with snowpack changes affect the phenology of overwintering cereals

Time series analysis of overwintering cereals in snowy areas has revealed several phenological patterns associated with climate changes in winter. Herein, to investigate the recent effect of climatic variations on overwintering cereals, we investigated the phenology over multiple decades at three snowy region sites with an air temperature (Tair) increase trend of 0.48–1.09 °C/decade. Our findings were as follows: heading trends differed within the same cultivar at different sites; phenology was promoted with increasing temperatures in cooler regions and decreasing snow duration in regions with heavy snow; crown temperature (Tcrown) was a more direct determinant than Tair in phenology estimation model in regions with heavy snow. A thermal gap of more than a few degrees Celsius between Tair and Tcrown, owing to the insulation effect of snowpack, affected the phenology of overwintering cereals. A shorter snow cover period promoted phenology in locations with temperatures >0 °C. Subsequently, we found that when the thermal gap was >0 °C of the growing temperature range, Tcrown directly helped determine the phenology of overwintering cereals, and irrespective of the warming trend, the periodic inflow of cold air into the northern mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere and associated snow cover changes dominated Tcrown, resulting in annual phenological anomalies with a range of fluctuations of approximately 1 month. The trend of increasing Tair during spring in northern Japan is consistent with the global trend, with a pronounced trend of advancing phenology reaching >4 days/decade in a typical cooler location experiencing snowmelt in March.

Late Holocene morphosedimentary and palaeoenvironmental study of the Middle Drâa river basin (southeastern Morocco)

The alluvial filling of the middle basin of the Drâa River (southeastern Morocco) has recorded hydrogeomorphological responses to environmental changes. A systematic study of the Holocene fluvial terraces along an upstream-downstream section of about a hundred kilometers, combined with a sedimentary multiproxy study, was carried out on the alluvial archives of the Drâa's river. The stratigraphic field studies, combined with granulometric and geochemical X-ray Fluorescence analyses and radiocarbon dating, enable us to propose, for the first time, a reconstruction of the major stages in the morpho-hydrodynamic and paleo-environmental evolution of the middle Drâa river over the past 3500 years. Our results highlight six morpho-hydrodynamic and paleoenvironmental phases. Between 3500–2700 and 1800–1600 cal BP, the Drâa river was highly active, associated with torrential activity, reflecting arid climatic conditions. The lack of sedimentary record observed between 2800 and 2350 cal BP points either to a phase of erosion, or to a minimal and discontinuous activity that left no traces in the studied archives. The periods 2350–1800 (Roman Warm Period) and 1600–550 cal BP (Medieval Climate Anomaly) are characterized by strong fine and more regular alluviation punctuated by episodes of low energy of the Drâa floodplain, sometimes favoring fluviosols development that showed similar characteristics in the three outcrops studied. Finally, from 550 cal BP the fluvial records generally shows signs of anthropization, marked by the formation of anthrosols characteristic of fluvial oasis construction, and associated with the presence of ceramics and hearths, in which eolization features are frequent. The comparison of Drâa evolution in a broader paleohydrological and climatic context, integrating other Moroccan studies and regional data, shows solid connection with the river, lakes, and marine archives from the southern Mediterranean to the Western Sahelian steppe zones, revealing a clear response of this large hydrosystem to regional climatic variations.

Niche of woody plant populations in Picea purpurea community in the upper Taohe River

The niche of plant populations is affected by the environment, species characteristics and anthropogenic disturbance. Picea purpurea, as a major constructive species in the northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, had been severely damaged. Although the national project for the protection of natural forests has promoted the recovery of its community, its structure, survival status, development trend, and the factors affecting it are still unclear. We selected P. purpurea communities in Zecha, Dayugou and Yeliguan forest zones at different altitudes and disturbance levels. We analyzed niche characteristics of the woody plants and the relationship between niche and altitude, and disturbance. P. purpurea has absolute advantages as a constructive species, and its population dominance and niche width in the tree layer show a decreasing trend with decreasing altitude, there is niche overlap between all species pairs. In the shrub layer, the dominant species are mostly Caprifoliaceae and Rosaceae besides P. purpurea seedlings, the proportion of species pairs with niche overlap is YLG>ZC>DYG, and all appeared niche divergence and convergence species pairs. In addition, P. purpurea seedlings had niche overlap with most woody species, and this overlap index was the highest. The mean values of the niche overlap index between species in the tree and shrub layers were all YLG>DYG>ZC. The niche overlap index between species in the tree layer was greater than that in the shrub layer in the same forest zones, indicating that the tree layer is more stable than the shrub layer, providing evidence that niche overlap maintains community stability. Regression analyses showed that minimum temperature was the main factor affecting dominance, niche, niche overlap and shrub layer species richness of the P. purpurea population. Disturbance did not significantly affect dominance and niche of P. purpurea seedling populations, but promoted niche differentiation of shrub layer species. We conclude that the P. purpurea community is mainly influenced by altitude and anthropogenic disturbance. Altitude-induced climatic variation fundamentally determines the distinct community composition and population niche. Anthropogenic disturbance has altered habitat heterogeneity and enriched community structure. Furthermore, the P. purpurea populations show a trend towards expansion. Understanding the structure and niche characteristics of P. purpurea communities on different environmental gradients enriches our ideas for implementing vegetation restoration and sustainable forest management in subalpine zones in the context of climate change, and is conducive to improving the conservation capacity of this population or community type.