Climate Threats Research Articles

Numeric social-media posts engage people with climate science.

Innumeracy (lack of math skills) among nonscientists often leads climate scientists and others to avoid communicating numbers due to concerns that the public will not understand them and may disengage. However, people often report preferring to receive numbers; providing them also can improve decisions. Here, we demonstrated that the presence vs. absence of at least one Arabic integer in climate-related social-media posts increased sharing up to 31.7% but, counter to hypothesis, decreased liking of messages 5.2% in two preregistered observational studies (climate scientists on Twitter, N > 8 million Tweets; climate subreddit, N > 17,000 posts and comments). We speculated that the decreased liking was due, not to reduced engagement, but to more negative feelings towards climate-related content described with numeric precision. A preregistered within-participant experiment (N = 212) then varied whether climate consequences were described using Arabic integers (e.g. "90%") or another format (e.g. verbal terms, "almost all"). The presence of Arabic integers about consequences led to more sharing, wanting to find out more, and greater trust and perceptions of an expert messenger; perceived trust and expertise appeared to mediate effects on sharing and wanting to find out more. Arabic integers about consequences again led to more negative feelings about the Tweets as if numbers clarified the dismaying magnitude of climate threats. Our results indicate that harnessing the power of numbers could increase public trust and concern regarding this defining issue of our time. Communicators, however, should also consider counteracting associated negative feelings-that could halt action-by providing feasible solutions to increase people's self-efficacy.

Applied climatology for heritage

The protection of heritage from a changing climate has been of increasing interest over the last few decades, which creates a need for a systematic approach to the impacts of climate on tangible and intangible heritage. We present heritage climatology as an applied, interdisciplinary field of science that examines aspects of climate that affect heritage and provides data, statistics, well-tuned climate parameters and projections that can aid interpreting past changes and future management of heritage. It must consider the impact of extreme events, cyclic processes and the gradual accumulation of damage. Climate threats to heritage need to be represented at the appropriate temporal and spatial scales, and transferred using dose–response functions such that they can be interpreted in terms of management decisions yet be resistant to errors from both the representation of the climate threat and its translation into policy.

The transition to nuclear energy in Bangladesh: The interplay between climate-related urgency and geopolitical factors

One of the significant issues in contemporary international politics is to examine the contexts of energy usage of different countries, keeping in mind the looming climate threat. Energy transition not only highlights the central role of energy usage but also exposes the vulnerability caused by it. Given the context, Bangladesh has adopted nuclear technology to meet its economic demand and environmental requirements. As a middle-income country, eyeing to graduate to a developing nation by 2041, its choice of exploring nuclear energy has exposed the country to the question of the rationality of the decision. Nuclear energy has a distinguished history that accommodates several debates about its safety and sustainability. Though many developed countries are planning for a nuclear phase-out, Bangladesh’s decision merits attention and explanation to embrace such a stand. Often, the economic priorities have been attached to Bangladesh’s decision for the energy transition, while the discussion about nuclear energy in Bangladesh ignores the geopolitical purposes and international political agenda. This paper, therefore, aims to explore the internal and external climate-related urgency, and geopolitical concerns responsible for such a transition, which have remained unexplored in the existing literature.

A national assessment of the economic and wellbeing impacts of recreational surfing in Australia

Surfing is a cultural ecosystem service, providing recreational benefits to over 50 million people worldwide and fostering economic activity through retail and tourism industries. Despite its growing popularity and threats to natural environments, surfing’s economic and social impacts remain sparsely documented. This study provides a nationwide assessment of surfing’s impact on Australia’s economy and participants’ wellbeing, using an online survey of Australian surfers (n=569). Domestic surf-related expenditure was estimated at A$3719 per surfer per year, including retail (A$1858) and travel (A$1861). Heterogeneity analyses reveal differences in expenditure patterns across regions, age groups and modalities of engagement in the sport. Aggregating across a population of 727,328 Australian adult surfers, the direct input into the market economy is estimated at A$2.71 billion per year. Standardized wellbeing measures indicate that over 80 % of participants experience positive effects from surfing, particularly in community connectedness, physical, and mental health. However, major concerns exist regarding the sustainability of surfing environments due to erosion and overcrowding pressures. Following the SEEA EA’s ‘logic chain’ framework, this study provides a set of baseline results that may be inputted into accounting processes considering recreational ecosystems services. Further, the systematic approach used in this study could be replicated by comparative analyses across time and other prominent surf regions. As coastal areas worldwide urgently respond to climate threats and the need to support the ‘blue economy’, a better understanding the socio-economic values derived from ocean-based recreation can help inform coastal polices aimed at fostering more resilient environments.

Structure, agency and local climate governance: how do individual actors exploit local contexts to shape policymaking in smaller cities and towns?

ABSTRACT Previous studies stress that structural conditions influence local climate action, but often neglect the role of agency in policymaking. Drawing on fieldwork in 11 German towns, we show how municipal managers frame climate-related policies in different ways to gain local support for action. Although these framings are influenced by each town’s socio-economic, demographic and political conditions, as well as its vulnerability to climate threats, they nonetheless highlight the importance of individuals in policymaking. We then present a two-dimensional framework to inform future research into structure and agency in local governance, whilst cautioning that undertaking such studies can be difficult.

Climate change, corporate risk-taking, and financialization: evidence from Chinese A-share non-financial listed companies

AbstractClimate change-induced risks, such as global warming, can affect the economic development of entities and, consequently, the stability of financial markets. Businesses are progressively making the transition to green in order to lessen the negative consequences of climate threats. This study examines the relationship between corporate risk-taking (CRISK) and financialization (FIN) in light of climate change. The impact of business risk-taking on financialization is experimentally investigated through the transmission chain of “CRISK - enterprise value – FIN” using a fixed-effects model. The study also analyzes the moderating effect of climate change on the direct and indirect channels of climate change by using “temperature” and “investors’ concern about climate,” respectively. In addition, the empirical results are tested for robustness using propensity score matching and an instrumental variable method. This study’s findings reveal the following key insights. First, CRISK significantly enhances FIN by improving firm value. Second, enterprises with high financing constraints and manufacturing enterprises are more likely to have a positive correlation between CRISK and FIN. Third, the relationship between CRISK and FIN is enhanced by the direct transmission channel of increasing climate risk, but the indirect transmission channel is not significant. This study proposes policy recommendations to address the effect of climate risk on CRISK and FIN. Among these suggestions are the prudent distribution of financial resources among enterprises according to their level of risk-taking and the reinforcement of regulatory authorities’ financial oversight of businesses with high financing constraints and the manufacturing sector. By implementing these policies, companies can better manage climate-related risks and contribute to financial stability.

The response rules to maintain social stability facing the climate change in ming dynasty

Studying the mechanisms by which climate change interacted with human societies during the historical period can provide historical insights and cultural roots for climate policy building in the region. In this study, we constructed Stability-Robustness-Resilience Model (SSR model) and used the TOPSIS method (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) and the entropy weight method to assess the change processes of robustness, resilience, and stability of Ming's society in response to climate threats. We have also compared three extreme droughts that occurred in different periods of social robustness-resilience combinations by using the SRR model. The results are as follows. (1) The stability of the Ming society was high in YongLe - HongZhi period (1402–1505 CE), when both social robustness and resilience were higher than the average level of Ming Dynasty (0.5611 for the former and 0.4215 for the latter), but there was a significant decline in social stability in TianShun period (1457–1464 CE). In ZhengDe - ChongZhen period (1506–1644 CE), the stability of Ming society gradually decreased, and it rebounded shortly in the LongQing-WanLi period (1506–1620 CE). (2) The high stability benefited from higher socio-economic levels, better government finance levels, larger national food reserves, safer social environments (high robustness), and higher levels of ruling class governance and risk response (high resilience); whereas insecure social environment induced by war, declining socio-economic levels and government finance levels were the main reasons for the decline in society's stability. (3)The ChengHua and WanLi droughts both happened at a time with high social robustness, so although their meteorological anomalies were severe, their impact on society was small. While the JiaJing drought happened at a time with low social robustness and resilience, so although the meteorological anomaly was relatively weak, it resulted in a more severe social consequence than the other two events.

Lianas in tropical dry seasonal forests have a high hydraulic efficiency but not always a higher embolism resistance than lianas in rainforests.

Lianas have higher relative abundance and biomass in drier seasonal forests than in rainforests, but whether this difference is associated with their hydraulic strategies is unclear. Here, we investigate whether lianas of seasonally dry forests are safer and more efficient in water transport than rainforest lianas, explaining patterns of liana abundance. We measured hydraulic traits on five pairs of congeneric lianas of the tribe Bignonieae in two contrasting forest sites: the wet 'Dense Ombrophilous Forest' in Central Amazonia (~2 dry months) and the drier 'Semideciduous Seasonal Forest' in the inland Atlantic Forest (~6 dry months). We also gathered a broader database, including 197 trees and 58 liana species from different tropical forests, to compare hydraulic safety between habits and forest types. Bignonieae lianas from both forests had high and similar hydraulic efficiency but exhibited variability in resistance to embolism across forest types when phylogenetic relationships were taken into account. Three genera had higher hydraulic safety in the seasonal forest than in the rainforest, but species across both forests had similar positive hydraulic safety margins despite lower predawn water potential values of seasonal forest lianas. We did not find the safety-efficiency trade-off. Merging our results with previously published data revealed a high variability of resistance to embolism in both trees and lianas, independent of forest types. The high hydraulic efficiency of lianas detected here probably favours their rapid growth across tropical forests, but differences in hydraulic safety highlight that some species are highly vulnerable and may rely on other mechanisms to cope with drought. Future research on the lethal dehydration threshold and the connection between hydraulic resistance strategies and liana abundance could offer further insights into tropical forest dynamics under climatic threats.

When ‘fear factors’ motivate people to adopt electric vehicles in India: An empirical investigation of the protection motivation theory

Climatic extremes have caused immense harm around the world. Its harm in terms of the proportion of people and regions affected continues to increase every single day. Due to people's psychological distance from such climatic threats, active initiatives are not undertaken for mitigation of its source. Rather, localized short-term solutions are marking a new status-quo. This study examines if fear can be used as a motivator to nudge people away from the psychological distance and motivate them to adopt electric vehicles (EVs). While subsidies and tax rebates are popularly adopted means to boost demand and supply of EVs, monetary incentives are costly to sustain for developing nations, amidst their diverse priorities. Instead, use of motivators like ‘fear’ is cheap, yet not much explored. Using the protection motivation theory, the study interviews 1112 Indian individuals, to examine if fear can nudge EV adoption. Using structural equation modeling and mediation analysis, the study finds that the expectation of personal harm from climatic threats can nudge one to actively mitigate the source of threat. Various aspects of threat and the associated coping processes that need to be triggered sequentially to nudge the formation of a pro-environmental intention to adopt EVs are also outlined.

Climate change through the eyes of recreational hunters: impacts on wildlife and adaptive responses

ABSTRACT Climate change is increasingly recognized as a serious threat to wildlife globally. Environmentally unsustainable human activities do not only damage wildlife resources but also contribute to exacerbating the impacts of climate change. The objective of this research is to assess how local hunters in the Dana Biosphere Reserve perceive climate change and its impacts on wildlife resources, and to understand their adaptive responses to these impacts. Through semi-structured interviews with local hunters, it was revealed that the area faces multiple climate threats, including reduced rainfall, shifting rainy seasons, and more frequent and intense droughts. Climate change has resulted in several problems, including a decline in the rate of reproduction of many wild species, changes in geographical distribution, and substantial declines in wildlife abundance. Consequently, most hunters have changed their hunting practices, avoided overhunting, and engaged in alternative outdoor activities.

Partial planned relocation and livelihoods: Learnings from Narikoso, Fiji

Pacific Island Countries (PICs) are vulnerable to climate change impacts, including sea level rise, extreme weather events and other environmental changes. Planned relocation can be an adaptive response to climatic threats. In Fiji, six communities have already relocated. While there is growing interest in planned relocation, there are few empirical case studies from which to learn. Narikoso village, in the Kadavu Province of Fiji, undertook partial relocation in 2020. Drawing on qualitative research (interviews, group discussions, observation), informed by Vanua methodology in 2022, this study examines the impacts of partial planned relocation on people's lives and livelihoods. Seven sustainable livelihood assets – or forms of ‘capital’ – are explored: natural, social, financial, human, physical and cultural, with the addition of spiritual. Our research found that planned relocation altered forms of capital that underpin sustainable livelihoods, leading to both benefits and problems. We argue that planned relocation must not only reduce exposure to climatic and environmental risk, but promote and preserve the integrity of local ecosystems, value continuity of culture and sustain and develop diverse assets that support sustainable livelihoods. This demands deep engagement with climate change‐affected communities to ensure that planned relocations sustain people's livelihoods, dignity and survival.

The Andean zinc rush: Green extractivism and climate vulnerabilities in the Peruvian highland waterscapes

Zinc is a green mineral that is increasingly required for manufacturing low-carbon technology. This demand has been promoted mainly by the Global North-led green policies to mitigate the impacts of climate change. However, simultaneously expanding zinc mining risks further entrenching climate threats in fragile socio-ecological environments such as the Peruvian highlands. This article analyses the linkages between the accelerated green extractivism of zinc and its associated climate-related vulnerabilities in the Cunas watershed in the Central highlands of Peru. The study draws on ethnographic-oriented fieldwork in the area in 2019, and 2022 and a review of policy documents on climate mitigation and zinc mining in Peru. The analysis particularly focuses on the recently reopened Azulcocha zinc mine and its intertwined socio-ecological effects on the local waterscapes amid climate change. The analysis draws the theoretical approaches of the political ecology of green extractivism and vulnerability to disentangle the multi-scalar power dynamics embedded in the global low-carbon transition and green extractivism and how these shape climate-related vulnerabilities. The study shows that with the impacts of climate change, accelerated extractivism risks (re)producing multiple vulnerabilities in the Andean highland communities. The findings highlight the urgent need to rethink the global climate proposals in such a way that they do not deepen climate damage in the already marginalized waterscapes in the Andes and elsewhere in the Global South.

Role of Non-State Actors in National Security

Globalization has elevated the role of non-state actors (NSAs) in national security. This article underscores the need to acknowledge the influence of NSAs on international relations and national security. It discusses the role of NSAs only in democratic states with limited government, excluding the totalitarian and authoritarian states, as they blur the private-public distinction or restrict NSAs. The paper follows a qualitative methodology depending on the scholarly credibility of sources, recency, and relevance. The sources include expert interviews as primary data sources and relevant academic literature and case studies as secondary data sources. It employs thematic analysis for examining the data, enabling a nuanced investigation of the evolving influence of NSAs. The theoretical foundation distinguishes two primary NSA categories: private-sector corporate actors and non-governmental organizations (NGOs), including global social movements (GSMs). Likewise, it investigates how NSAs extend their influence beyond conventional territorial boundaries such as cyber threats, climate threats, and global policy making. The findings highlight the critical role of non-state actors in shaping contemporary national security paradigms through various case studies, offering insights for policymakers.

From a business risk to full-scale crisis: the understanding of ‘climate threat’ in the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Reports

ABSTRACT This article suggests that the business sector’s engagement in climate governance is not only expanding but also providing them with an increasingly influential role in determining how climate risks are framed and addressed. Using the methodological tools provided by the poststructuralist hegemony and discourse theory, the article analyses how the World Economic Forum has framed climate change as a security issue through its Global Risks Reports and what forms of authority and practice are promoted by this understanding.

City-scale methane emissions from the midstream oil and gas industry: A satellite survey of the Zhoushan archipelago

As the second most abundant greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide, methane (CH4) leakage and emissions pose potential climate threats and environmental problems in the midstream oil and gas storage and transportation (OGST) industry. In this study, the Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument on the Sentinel-5P satellite was adopted to investigate the coverage of atmospheric CH4 concentrations over the Zhoushan archipelago, which is China's largest OGST base. Specifically, the distribution of atmospheric CH4 and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) concentrations over Zhoushan in August 2022 and August 2023 were evaluated, where changes in concentrations around the OGST companies were monitored. Using surface temperature inversion and average temperature statistics, we analyzed the heat island effect in Zhoushan. The results showed that: (1) although there is limited valid data (>200 pixel/day) for Zhoushan, the amount of valid data increased from 3.2% in January 2020 to 32.3% in August 2023; (2) around the region of the OGST companies, the atmospheric CH4 concentration shown significant variation at both the spatial and temporal scales, which may be due to the storage, loading, and unloading of petroleum products; (3) under geographic isolation conditions, NO2 can be used as a tracer gas to track the CH4 emissions from OGST companies; and (4) Surface temperature analysis underscores OGST companies' contribution to Zhoushan's urban heat island effect, with local average temperature increases outstripping broader national trends, highlighting the intricate interplay of human and natural factors in the city-scale climate dynamics.

Panic activism or crisis solidarity? Reworking crisis narratives in climate activism through the COVID‐19 pandemic

AbstractCrisis narratives have long been a prominent feature of the climate movement to spur system change. The COVID‐19 pandemic brought to the fore the complexities of navigating climate action through the overlapping crises of the Anthropocene. While crisis is seen to offer possibilities for transformational change, it also threatens to prioritise urgency over justice. It is therefore important to understand how climate activists, in practice, are mobilising different narratives of crisis. To this end, we empirically examine climate activists' reflections on crisis in Aotearoa New Zealand through their experiences of the COVID‐19 pandemic. We identify a narrative of ‘panic‐activism’ that uses crisis to demonstrate the severity of the climate threat to enable drastic action. Such narratives are often underpinned by a ‘hierarchy of crisis’ that positions climate change as the most imminent existential crisis. We caution that this crisis narrative is troubling for climate justice, particularly as it positions one crisis as more urgent than others. However, in contrast to panic‐activism, our study suggests climate activists in Aotearoa tended to approach crisis cautiously and with reluctant necessity, rather than as something to be actively catalysed or capitalised on. Instead, activists cultivated a narrative of ‘crisis solidarity’ that highlights the networks of reciprocity and vulnerability across and within communities for more intersectional social movement organising.

Interspecific competition impacts the occupancy and range limits of two ptarmigan species along the elevation gradient in Norway

Many mountain species are expected to respond to climate change through upslope shifts of their range limits, but competition may restrict or alter this response. Under traditional range‐limit theory, it is expected that lower‐elevation species are better competitors than closely related higher‐elevation species. However, recent work finds that this prediction is often unmet. We investigated evidence for the impact of competition during breeding season on the elevational range limits of a pair of closely related bird species, willow ptarmigan Lagopus lagopus and rock ptarmigan L. muta, in mainland Norway. The species share overlapping ranges that loosely divide slightly upslope from the treeline ecotone, with willow ptarmigan generally occupying lower sites and rock ptarmigan occupying higher sites. We used multi‐species occupancy models to test four competing hypotheses for how competition may affect the range limit between willow ptarmigan and rock ptarmigan: 1) asymmetric competition that restricts the lower range limit of rock ptarmigan; 2) asymmetric competition that restricts the upper range limit of willow ptarmigan; 3) condition‐specific competition that restricts both species' range limits; and 4) range limits unaffected by competition. We found evidence for a negative pairwise interaction between the two species. Changes in interaction strength along the elevation gradient suggested evidence for condition‐specific competition. However, a strong positive correlation between rock ptarmigan and higher‐elevation habitat resulted in a highly asymmetric outcome, where the upper range limit of willow ptarmigan was restricted but rock ptarmigan occupancy was fairly independent of willow ptarmigan. This outcome is opposite to the prediction of traditional range‐limit theory and may suggest a greater climate threat to willow ptarmigan than has been previously projected. Thus, our results demonstrate the importance of considering biotic interactions at both the higher and lower ends of species' range limits along elevation gradients.

How Do Arable Crop Farmers’ Adapt to Climate Change? New Evidence from Nigeria

In Nigeria, climate change is not a new phenomenon and arable crop production is vulnerable to climate change. Arable crop farmers have always responded to climate change with local strategies believed to be climate-smart. Arable crop farmers' knowledge of climate change is an important step in understanding any action to be taken to reduce its effect. However, empirical studies on the link between climate change and crop farmers’ adaptation strategies are still relatively scanty in the area. This presents a dearth in research. Therefore, our paper examined how arable crop farmers adapt to climate change using cross-sectional data obtained through a structured focused group discussion and questionnaire from 120 arable farmers across critical farming communities in Imo State, Nigeria. We utilized multistage and purposive sampling procedure in the selection of arable crop farmers. The reason we utilized purposive sampling procedure was to select areas with high intensity of arable crop farmers and farming. Data collected was analyzed using descriptive statistical tools and mean (x̄) score analysis. Our result shows that the mean age was 42.00 years. Greater proportions (73.00%) were female. The average farm size was 1.45 hectares. Vegetables (100.00%), maize (99.17%), cassava (98.33%) and rice (96.67%) were among the crops produced in the area. The result confirmed the incidence of climate change in the area and farmers perceived rightly the direction of the change, which includes declining crop yields (x̄ = 3.00; σ = 0.50), increased in new pests and diseases infestation (x̄= 2.88; σ = 0.58); unstable decrease and increase in temperature and rainfall (x̄=3.63, σ = 0.83) among others. Our study further shows that the major climate change adaptation measures farmers practiced were diversification of livelihood (99.17%) and changing planting/harvesting dates (97.50%). Farmers identified inadequate information (99.17) and inadequate climate change adaptation fund (98.33%) among others as the barriers they faced in adapting to climate change in the area. We recommend that, since arable crop farmers are members of cooperatives, they are encouraged to take advantage of their strength to collectively project a common demand in obtaining funds and other necessary inputs in adapting to climate change in the area. Finally, our study also suggests that the agricultural extension service system should be strengthened so as to provide farmers with stable and right early warning signs which will be critical in minimizing risks of climatic threats in the area.

A Comprehensive Analysis of Vegetation Dynamics and Their Response to Climate Change in the Loess Plateau: Insight from Long-Term kernel Normalized Difference Vegetation Index Data

The Loess Plateau (LP) is a typical climate-sensitive and ecologically delicate area in China. Clarifying the vegetation–climate interaction in the LP over 40+ years, particularly pre- and post-Grain to Green Program (GTGP) implementation, is crucial for addressing potential climate threats and achieving regional ecological sustainability. Utilizing the kernel Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (kNDVI) and key climatic variables (precipitation (PRE), air temperature (TEM), and solar radiation (SR)) between 1982 and 2022, we performed an extensive examination of vegetation patterns and their reaction to changes in climate using various statistical methods. Our findings highlight a considerable and widespread greening on the LP from 1982 to 2022, evidenced by a kNDVI slope of 0.0020 yr−1 (p < 0.001) and a 90.9% significantly increased greened area. The GTGP expedited this greening process, with the kNDVI slope increasing from 0.0009 yr−1 to 0.0036 yr−1 and the significantly greened area expanding from 39.1% to 84.0%. Over the past 40 years, the LP experienced significant warming (p < 0.001), slight humidification, and a marginal decrease in SR. Post-GTGP implementation, the warming rate decelerated, while PRE and SR growth rates slightly accelerated. Since the hurst index exceeded 0.5, most of the vegetated area of the LP is expected to be greening, warming, and humidification in the future. In the long term, 75% of the LP vegetated area significantly benefited from the increase in PRE, especially in relatively dry environments. In the LP, 61% of vegetated areas showed a positive correlation between kNDVI and TEM, while 4.9% exhibited a significant negative correlation, mainly in arid zones. SR promoted vegetation growth in 23% of the vegetated area, mostly in the eastern LP. The GTGP enhanced the sensitivity of vegetation to PRE, increasing the area corresponding to a significant positive correlation from 15.3% to 59.9%. Overall, PRE has emerged as the dominant climate driver for the vegetation dynamics of the LP, followed by TEM and SR. These insights contribute to a comprehensive understanding of the climate-impact-related vegetation response mechanisms, providing guidance for efforts toward regional sustainable ecological development amid the changing climate.

Climate threats to coastal infrastructure and sustainable development outcomes

Climate hazards pose increasing threats to development outcomes across the world’s coastal regions by impacting infrastructure service delivery. Using a high-resolution dataset of 8.2 million households in Bangladesh’s coastal zone, we assess the extent to which infrastructure service disruptions induced by flood, cyclone and erosion hazards can thwart progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Results show that climate hazards potentially threaten infrastructure service access to all households, with the poorest being disproportionately threatened in 69% of coastal subdistricts. Targeting adaptation to these climatic threats in one-third (33%) of the most vulnerable areas could help to safeguard 50–85% of achieved progress towards SDG 3, 4, 7, 8 and 13 indicators. These findings illustrate the potential of geospatial climate risk analyses, which incorporate direct household exposure and essential service access. Such high-resolution analyses are becoming feasible even in data-scarce parts of the world, helping decision-makers target and prioritize pro-poor development.