Climatic Stress Research Articles

Assessment of extreme climate stress across China’s maize harvest region in CMIP6 simulations

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency and severity of climate extremes, which will negatively impact crop production. As one of the main food and feed crops, maize is also vulnerable to extreme climate events. In order to accurately and comprehensively assess the future climate risk to maize, it is urgent to project and evaluate the stress of extreme climate related maize production under future climate scenarios. In this study, we comprehensively evaluated the spatio-temporal changes in the frequency and intensity of six extreme climate indices (ECIs) across China’s maize harvest region by using a multi-model ensemble method, and examined the capability of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to capture these variations. We found that the Independence Weight Mean (IWM) ensemble results calculated by multiple Global Climate Models (GCMs) with bias correction could better reproduce each ECI. The results indicated that heat stress for maize showed consistent increase trends under four future climate scenarios in the 21st century. The intensity and frequency of the three extreme temperature indices in 2080s were significantly higher than these in 2040s, and in the high emission scenario were significantly higher than these in the low emission scenario. The three extreme precipitation indices changed slightly in the future, but the spatial changes were more significant. Therefore, with the uncertainty of climate change and the differences of climate characteristics in different regions, the optimization of specific management measures should be considered in combination with the specific conditions of future local climate change.

Physiological Adaptations of Vegetables to Climate Stress

Vegetables, being rich in vitamins, carbohydrates, minerals, proteins and antioxidants are essential for overcoming micronutrient deficiencies, offering higher incomes and more employment opportunities per hectare to smallholder farmers compared to staple crops. Major challenges faced by vegetable growers are increased terminal heat stress, rainfall variability leading to flooding, drought, irrigation water availability, salinity, incidence of pests and diseases, extreme weather events. These gets further worsened in the future due to climate change. Vegetables exhibit various physiological adaptations to cope with changing environmental conditions such as enhanced photosynthetic efficiency, improved water-use efficiency, and altered phenological development. Higher temperatures accelerate the life cycle of vegetables cause increased respiration, leading to earlier maturation and potentially lower yields. Increased frequency of heat waves can cause heat stress, affecting growth and development. Moreover elevated temperatures increase the incidence of pests and diseases, leading to higher crop losses. Changes in precipitation patterns alter water availability, impacting growth and productivity. Nevertheless drought conditions cause stomatal closure limiting water loss besides reducing CO2 uptake. Excessive rainfall can lead to waterlogging, disrupting root function and nutrient uptake. Variability in climate conditions lead to inconsistent yields, making it challenging for farmers and necessitating adaptive strategies to ensure crop resilience and productivity. Genetic improvement through breeding for heat and drought tolerance helps to develop resilient vegetables. Additionally, agronomic practices like mulching, organic farming, and resource conservation technologies help mitigate the adverse effects of climate change. Understanding these physiological responses could streamline sustainable vegetable production in the face of a changing climate.

Sensitivity analysis of carbon fiber reinforced asphalt pavements: Experimental study and data driven predictive model using machine learning

It is well known that the impact of fibers on reinforcing asphalt pavement (AP) has been extensively investigated. However, the optimal fiber length and content considering various temperatures is still an unresolved issue in this field. To reach this goal, this research aims to study the impact of carbon fiber (CF) reinforcement on the fracture energy and toughness of AP under varying environmental conditions. Several mix designs considering different CF length (10–30 mm) and content (1–3.5 %) at 5 °C and ambient temperatures were evaluated to determine the optimal values. The results demonstrated that while increasing CF length and content generally improves fracture energy and toughness, there is an optimal threshold beyond which additional CF content yields diminishing returns. Notably, the sample with a 1.5 % replacement ratio and 15 mm CF length exhibited superior performance, significantly enhancing the AP’s resistance to fracture due to effective stress distribution and crack bridging. Conversely, samples with the higher fiber content and length showed decreased fracture toughness, due to fiber clustering and reduced workability. Additionally, experimental results indicated higher values at 5 °C for fracture energy and toughness. Advanced machine learning techniques were also utilized to develop predictive models to accurately simulate the fracture behavior of CF-reinforced AP mixtures. Among all models, Gaussian process regression demonstrated superior performance and exhibited lower error in predicting experimental data. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis of this model was conducted to determine how the length and content of CF, as well as temperature, influence fracture energy and toughness, guiding the optimization of CF integration in AP design. These findings provide valuable insights for engineering durable and resilient asphalt pavements capable of withstanding diverse climatic stresses, ultimately contributing to more sustainable and cost-effective infrastructuresolutions.

PERFORMANCE EVALUATION OF OLD VINE VARIETIES IN THE CONTEXT OF ECOPEDOCLIMATIC CHALLENGES AT INCDBH ȘTEFĂNEȘTI, ARGEȘ

This scientific paper analyzes the agrobiological and technological characteristics of the old autochthonous ancestral grapevine varieties, focusing on the specific ecopedoclimatic conditions of the Ștefănești vineyard, Argeș, in the context of contemporary climate challenges. The study conducted in 2024 at INCDBH Ștefănești examined five distinct varieties: Ardeleanca, Coada oilor, Galbenă uriașă, Gordan, and Coarnă neagră. Advanced analytical techniques were applied to assess fertility, facilitating a thorough understanding of agrobiological dynamics. Additionally, technological variables reflecting productivity, yield, and the biochemical traits of the grapes were investigated. The results obtained highlight a significant variability in phenotypic responses, emphasizing the resilience of these ancestral varieties in the face of climatic stress. The correlations identified between analytical characteristics and sensory traits emphasize their relevance in shaping effective strategies for sustainable viticulture. This paper aims not only to rejuvenate interest in the native viticultural heritage but also to promote the integration of these ancestral varieties into the contemporary viticultural landscape, thereby contributing to the development of viable solutions that meet the sustainability requirements of the wine industry.

Temporal ecotrophic impacts of fisheries and climate change in the Aegean Sea

Mediterranean fisheries face a crisis with rapidly depleting stocks due to overexploitation, exacerbated by various stressors, including climate change, alien species and pollution. To address these challenges, modelling tools like ECOPATH with ECOSIM (EwE) are being used to assess marine ecosystems within the context of the ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM). In this study, an ECOSIM model was developed for the Aegean Sea based on a previously developed ECOPATH configuration (calibration period: 2006-2021; projection period: 2022-2050), to assess the current state of the food web and predict future conditions. Forecast scenarios incorporating fisheries and climatic stressors were explored to propose management measures that will ensure fisheries sustainability. The baseline simulation demonstrated a decline in biomass and catch in most functional groups (FGs). Fishing effort reduction scenarios led to biomass increase in several FGs, but resulted in lower catches. Climate scenarios with sea surface temperature time series from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change triggered varied responses among FGs, with biomass gains observed in the demersal compartment, while the most negatively affected pelagic groups were mackerels and horse mackerels. Combined fisheries and climatic scenarios revealed synergistic effects, emphasizing the complex ecological interactions in the Aegean Sea. Ecological indicators from the ECOIND analysis highlighted losses in the demersal compartment in relation with the fisheries and climate scenarios, while trophic-based indices exhibited the most notable variations, suggesting cascading effects in the food web. The findings of this study will provide valuable insights for fisheries management and climate adaptation strategies in the Aegean Sea.

Identification of key chlorophyll fluorescence parameters as biomarkers for dryland wheat under future climate conditions.

Nowadays, climate change is the primary factor shaping the future of food and nutritional security. To investigate the interactive effects of various climate variables on photosynthetic efficiency, an experiment was conducted using 10 dryland wheat genotypes. These genotypes were exposed to different conditions: temperatures of 25 ± 3°C and 34 ± 3°C, carbon dioxide concentrations of 380 ± 50 ppm and 800 ± 50 ppm, and irrigation regimes of 50% field capacity and well-watered. Our results indicated that the wheat genotypes responded differently to both individual and combined climate stress factors. The traditional winter wheat genotype *Sardari*, along with the newly developed dryland wheat genotype *Ivan*, exhibited resilience to anticipated climate conditions. This resilience was reflected in enhancements in photochemical quantum efficiency parameters (Y(II), qP, and qL) under combined stress conditions. Resilient genotypes demonstrated superior regulation of the stomatal conductance (GS) and electron transport rate (ETR) under elevated temperature and CO2 levels. Principal component analysis (PCA) revealed significant correlations between chlorophyll fluorescence parameters and climate factors, such as NPQ with temperature, Y(NO) with CO2, qL in response to drought stress, and both qP and Y(II) with the interactions among temperature, CO2, and drought stress. Elevated CO2 reduced the ETR and GS across all genotypes. Our findings underscore the importance of assessing not only fundamental chlorophyll fluorescence parameters like Fm and Fo but also the efficiency of NPQ and Y(II) to understand climate change impacts on dryland wheat genotypes. We suggest that these parameters could serve as valuable biomarkers for breeding programs aimed at improving plant adaptation to future dryland climate conditions.

Group-selection system as alternative management of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) forests facing climate change

AbstractThe Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) is economically and ecologically the most important forest tree species in Poland with its aerial share estimated at 59% and share in growing stock at 68%. Pine forests have been managed according to even-aged silviculture for decades, resulting in a simplified structure and increased vulnerability to climatic stress. Structurally simple forests also show low resilience and adaptability to the observed global changes. The growing awareness of the risks associated with global change is drawing particular attention to the need for alternative management of pine forests that meets the expectations of the public and foresters themselves. In 1992, an experiment with uneven-aged silviculture for pine forest was established in the Gubin Forest District (western Poland). Based on data collected from 49 permanent circular plots (size of 500 m2 each) covering approximately 30 ha of Scots pine forest, the effect of such silviculture on stand structure was analyzed. Dbh, total tree height, tree status, and tree coordinates (x, y) were measured on each plot. Measurements and observations were taken twice, in 1992 and 2019. Structural indices describing different aspects (size structure, vertical structure, spatial structure) were calculated. The dynamics of the stand structure were then analyzed over 27 years, during which the forest was managed under alternative management strategies. The results showed that group-selection cuttings promote strong differentiation of stand structure. The positive effect of such silviculture can be observed in each aspect of the stand structure. Together with other research findings, the results confirm the effectiveness of this alternative silviculture to diversify simplified pine forests to be better adapted to novel environmental conditions.

Genomic insights into climate change-induced forest dieback in Abies alba hotspots of decline

AbstractUnderstanding adaptive genetic responses to climate change is an issue of utmost importance to improve conservation policies and adaptive management. This study deeps on it, focusing on rear-edge silver fir (Abies alba) forests, where decline has been reported and linked to climatic stressors, such as warming and recurrent drought events. Hotspots and coldspots of forest decline and mortality were defined. Different sets of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), namely genome-wide and adaptive, were used to study their genetic characteristics, aiming to identify differences in genetic diversity between vigor classes (declining and non-declining trees) and age cohorts (adult trees and saplings). Global DNA methylation levels were assessed to investigate a possible role of epigenetic processes in adaptation to stressful environments. Parentage and relatedness analysis were conducted to track the genetic lineage of trees from each site. Our findings indicate that, even though adaptive SNPs seem to provide more insightful information than the genome-wide set, the optimal approach for evolutionary studies is a combination of both. Changes in adaptive genomic diversity and DNA methylation were observed between vigor classes, revealing the existence of a molecular basis behind the ongoing decline events in silver forests. Besides, trees’ relatives display a higher mixture of origins in coldspots, which could provide a temporary refuge for the species’ genetic diversity and adaptive potential. All in all, both genetic and epigenetic characteristics should be considered in order to comprehend how forest trees respond to climate stress to achieve adaptation to climate change.

Exploring plant-microbe interactions in adapting to abiotic stress under climate change: a review.

Climatic change and extreme weather events have become a major threat to global agricultural productivity. Plants coexist with microorganisms, which play a significant role in influencing their growth and functional traits. The rhizosphere serves as an ecological niche encompassing plant roots and is a chemically complex environment that supports the growth and development of diverse plant-interactive microbes. Although plant-microbe interactions have been extensively investigated however, limited exploration have been made how abiotic stresses affect the structure and assembly of microbial communities in the rhizosphere. This review highlights climate change influence on plant growth, functional traits, and microbial communities. It explores plant mechanisms for mitigating abiotic stress, such as removing reactive oxygen species (ROS), regulating antioxidant activity and indole-3-acetic acid (IAA) production, and controlling growth-inhibitory ethylene levels through colonization by bacteria producing ACC deaminase. Additionally, we elaborated the systematic communicatory network steered by hormonal crosstalk and root exudation, which can modulate and initiate the dialogues between plants and surrounding microbes. This network ultimately promotes the chemotactic movement of microbes towards the rhizosphere, facilitating their early colonization. Finally, we reviewed the recent advancements for understanding how plant-microbe interactions foster resilience under climate stress.

Climate variability and worldwide migration: Current evidence and future projections

Abstract The literature linking climatic drivers and migration is growing, but there is still limited evidence and substantial uncertainty regarding future bilateral flows driven by climate stress on a global scale. The aim of this paper is to fill this gap by projecting changes in the flows of international migrants from medium-term population and climate change projections. We employ a bilateral gravity equation for emigration rates controlling for decadal weather averages of temperature, precipitation, droughts, and extreme precipitation in the origin countries. We use the parameter estimates of the gravity equation to estimate global, regional, and country-by-country emigration flows for several combinations of socio-economic development and climate change. Results indicate that global emigration flows are projected to increase to around 110 million in 2060 for SSP1 and RCP 4.5 and SSP5 and RCP 4.5; to 135 million for SSP5 and RCP 8.5; to 163 million for SSP3 and RCP 4.5. We report that changes in emigration flows are largely due to population growth in the origin countries.

Differences in species composition between calcareous and siliceous herbaceous communities are primarily explained by competition in favourable climates

Difference in vegetation composition between communities from calcareous and siliceous soils might be due to high competition on siliceous soils for species from calcareous origin, and high rock‐induced drought stress on calcareous soils for species from siliceous origin. We tested the hypothesis that, with increasing climate stress, competition should decrease on siliceous rock for species of calcareous origin and drought stress increase on calcareous rock for species of siliceous origin because of decreasing community biomass with increasing cold or drought stress. This question is of high interest for predicting changes in species distribution with climate change since bedrock type and climate change are both complex factors that are likely to interact with climate. We set up a transplant removal experiment in contrasting climate conditions of the south of France, warm and wet temperate, warm and dry Mediterranean, and cold temperate in the Alps and the Pyrenees. In each climate condition, three targets (two species and one population from a third species) from each origin were transplanted with and without neighbours on the two rock types and during two years with different levels of drought stress. Variation in the effects of neighbours and rock‐induced drought stress on transplant survival with and without neighbours were analysed with linear modelling at each site, separately, and with ANCOVA in the whole design. Competition was the highest on siliceous rock in the more favourable climate conditions but for species of siliceous origin. The lower competition found for species of calcareous origin was likely due to the occurrence of allelopathic effects that decreased the negative effect of neighbours as measured with the removal method. The rock‐induced drought stress was the highest on calcareous rock, in particular for species of siliceous origin. Thus, the decrease in competition intensity on siliceous rocks with increasing climate stress was more important for species from siliceous than calcareous origin. Additionally, the importance of the rock‐induced drought stress was relatively low in the most stressful climate conditions as compared to the overwhelming importance of climate drought stress over the two years of our experiment, which likely induced a collapse of the positive effect of growing on a siliceous rock.

Climate Sensitivity and Tree Growth Patterns in Subalpine Spruce-Dominated Forests of the North-Western Dinaric Alps

The mountain forests in Europe, especially the ecosystems dominated by Norway spruce [Picea abies (L.) Karst], are facing major challenges due to climate change. Climatic stress factors such as increased temperatures and drought contribute to reduced growth and increased mortality, especially at lower altitudes. In this study, which was conducted in the northern Velebit region, the growth dynamics and climate sensitivity of Norway spruce were analyzed using standard dendrochronological methods. The focus was on samples collected at altitudes between 1135 and 1545 m. The results show two different growth trends: a positive trend from 1950 to 1977, followed by a negative trend from 1977 to 2013. Precipitation proved to be a key factor for the stability of spruce growth, while the high summer temperatures of the previous year correlated negatively with growth increment. In addition, trees at higher altitudes showed greater resistance to climatic stress. These results underline the crucial role of precipitation and site-specific conditions in maintaining the vitality of spruce forests in mountainous regions, and suggest that climate change could further destabilize spruce ecosystems in the Dinaric Alps.

Land Use and Land Cover Change Analysis in Brazilian Urban centres: an approach using Cellular Automata and Neural Networks

Abstract. During the 1970s, Brazil experienced most of its population living in cities for the first time. Historically, urbanization has been intensely related to land use and cover changes, amplifying climatic and ecological stress in recently established metropolises. This study aims to analyze, through classified Remote Sensing images and the Cellular Automata and Artificial Neural Networks (CA-ANN) machine learning model, land use and land cover trends in regions that have experienced accentuated demographic growth in the decades 2000 and 2010. The methodology consists of: i) identifying areas with a high density of buildings, ii) defining the variables that drive land use change, and iii) proposing a methodology for predicting changes in the urban area. The results indicate that the urban class prediction presented high precision (≥ 0.74) and recall (≥ 0.86) indices. Forest class also presented a high precision score (≥0.72), showing an elevated prediction hit rate. Furthermore, the proposed methodology improved the results obtained in previous works for the same cities, presenting higher Kappa values in all cases.

Numerical Thermo-Hydraulic Simulation of Infiltration and Evaporation of Small-Scale Replica of Typical Dike Covers

Measurements taken on a historical dike in the Netherlands over one year showed that interaction with the atmosphere led to oscillation of the piezometric surface of about 0.7 m. The observation raised concerns about the long-term performance of similar dikes and promoted a deeper investigation of the response of the cover layer to increasing climatic stresses. An experimental and numerical study was undertaken, which included an investigation in the laboratory of the unsaturated behavior of a scaled replica of the field cover. A sample extracted from the top clayey layer in the dike was subjected to eight drying and wetting cycles in a HYPROP™ device. Data recorded during the test provide an indication of the delayed response with depth during evaporation and infiltration. The measurements taken during this continuous dynamic process were simulated by means of a finite element discretization of the time-dependent coupled thermohydraulic response. The results of the numerical simulations are affected by the way in which the environmental loads are translated into numerical boundary conditions. Here, it was chosen to model drying considering only the transport of water vapor after equilibrium with the room atmosphere, while water in the liquid phase was added upon wetting. The simulation was able to reproduce the water mass balance exchange observed during four complete drying–wetting cycles, although the simulated drying rate was faster than the observed one. The numerical curves describing suction, the amount of vapor and temperature are identical, confirming that vapor generation and its equilibrium is control the hydraulic response of the material. Vapor generation and diffusion depend on temperature; therefore, correct characterization of the thermal properties of the soil is of paramount importance when dealing with evaporation and related non-steady equilibrium states.

Plant phenology predicts the stability of primary production in three ecosystems of the northern Chihuahuan Desert

Abstract The temporal stability of plant productivity affects species' access to resources, exposure to stressors and strength of interactions with other species in the community, including support to the food web. The magnitude of temporal stability depends on how a species allocates resources among tissues and across phenological stages, such as vegetative growth versus reproduction. Understanding how plant phenological traits correlate with the long‐term stability of plant biomass is particularly important in highly variable ecosystems, such as drylands. We evaluated whether phenological traits predict the temporal stability of plant species productivity by correlating 18 years of monthly phenology observations with biannual estimates of above‐ground plant biomass for 98 plant species from semi‐arid drylands. We then paired these phenological traits with potential climate drivers to identify abiotic contexts that favour specific phenological strategies among plant species. Phenological traits predicted the stability of plant species above‐ground biomass. Plant species with longer vegetative phenophases not only had more stable biomass production over time but also failed to fruit in a greater proportion of years, indicating a growth–reproduction trade‐off. Earlier leaf‐out dates, longer fruiting duration and longer time lags between leaf and fruit production also predicted greater temporal stability. Species with stability‐promoting traits began greening in drier conditions than their unstable counterparts and experienced unexpectedly greater exposure to climate stress, indicated by the wider range of temperatures and precipitation experienced during biologically active periods. Our results suggest that bet‐hedging strategies that spread resource acquisition and reproduction over long time periods help to stabilize plant species productivity in variable environments, such as drylands. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

Siberian larch is better adapted to stress in wet-stressed areas than in drought-stressed areas

With climate change, the frequency and intensity of wet and dry events are increasing, as is the uncertainty of their impact on tree growth. There have been studies on the effects of wet and dry conditions on tree growth, but there is a lack of comparisons of tree adaptation strategies to different types of wet and dry events in heterogeneous environments. Therefore, we explored differences in the response of tree radial growth to different types of wet and dry events using data on tree ring widths of Siberian larch (Larix sibirica) in the Altai Mountains (west) and Mongolian Plateau (east) of Central Asia. The results showed that western tree radial growth was significantly negatively correlated with precipitation and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and significantly positively correlated with mean temperature. The radial growth of trees in the east was significantly and positively correlated with precipitation and SPEI, and significantly and negatively correlated with mean temperature. Trees in wet-stressed areas are less resistance to composite cold-wet events than to ordinary wet events. Trees in drought-stressed areas are less resistance to composite hot-drought events than to ordinary drought events. Trees in the wet-stressed area recovered to normal growth levels in the first year after both ordinary wet and compound cold-wet events, and trees in the drought-stressed area failed to recover after both ordinary drought and compound hot-drought events, but then experienced compensatory growth. Thus, climate warming had a positive effect on radial growth of trees in the wet-stressed areas and a negative effect on radial growth of drought-stressed trees. Forest management should be based on the different adaptation strategies of larch to climatic stresses in heterogeneous environments.

Study of the Genetic Mechanisms of Siberian Stone Pine (Pinus sibirica Du Tour) Adaptation to the Climatic and Pest Outbreak Stresses Using Dendrogenomic Approach.

A joint analysis of dendrochronological and genomic data was performed to identify genetic mechanisms of adaptation and assess the adaptive genetic potential of Siberian stone pine (Pinus sibirica Du Tour) populations. The data obtained are necessary for predicting the effect of climate change and mitigating its negative consequences. Presented are the results of an association analysis of the variation of 84,853 genetic markers (single nucleotide polymorphisms-SNPs) obtained by double digest restriction-site associated DNA sequencing (ddRADseq) and 110 individual phenotypic traits, including dendrophenotypes based on the dynamics of tree-ring widths (TRWs) of 234 individual trees in six natural populations of Siberian stone pine, which have a history of extreme climatic stresses (e.g., droughts) and outbreaks of defoliators (e.g., pine sawfly [Neodiprion sertifer Geoff.]). The genetic structure of studied populations was relatively weak; samples are poorly differentiated and belong to genetically similar populations. Genotype-dendrophenotype associations were analyzed using three different approaches and corresponding models: General Linear Model (GLM), Bayesian Sparse Linear Mixed Model (BSLMM), and Bayesian-information and Linkage-disequilibrium Iteratively Nested Keyway (BLINK), respectively. Thirty SNPs were detected by at least two different approaches, and two SNPs by all three. In addition, three SNPs associated with mean values of recovery dendrophenotype (Rc) averaged across multiple years of climatic stresses were also found by all three methods. The sequences containing these SNPs were annotated using genome annotation of a very closely related species, whitebark pine (P. albicaulis Engelm.). We found that most of the SNPs with supposedly adaptive variation were located in intergenic regions. Three dendrophenotype-associated SNPs were located within the 10 Kbp regions and one in the intron of the genes encoding proteins that play a crucial role in ensuring the integrity of the plant's genetic information, particularly under environmental stress conditions that can induce DNA damage. In addition, we found a correlation of individual heterozygosity with some dendrophenotypes. Heterosis was observed in most of these statistically significant cases; signs of homeostasis were also detected. Although most of the identified SNPs were not assigned to a particular gene, their high polymorphism and association with adaptive traits likely indicate high adaptive potential that can facilitate adaptation of Siberian stone pine populations to the climatic stresses and climate change.

Climate shocks and food insecurity: Are Burkinabè households resilient in the face of various disruptions?

In response to climate change and international economic crises, which exacerbate the vulnerability of populations in developing countries to various disturbances and shocks, resilience is proposed as a programmatic solution to prevent the deterioration of food security and well-being. This study aims to measure and analyze Burkina Faso households’ resilience to food insecurity during periods of climatic shock and stress. Drawing on the literature concerning the notion of resilience and its conceptualization, we assessed a resilience structure based on three pillars: absorption, adaptation, and transformation. The data used come from the Harmonized Survey of Household Living Conditions conducted in 2018 by Burkina Faso’s National Institute of Statistics and Demography, covering 7,020 households across the country. Statistical analysis, based on structural equation models, revealed that all three pillars are significant in explaining the level of household resilience, measured by a standardized index ranging from 0 to 1. Based on this scale, the average resilience index was estimated at 0.3985 at the national level and exhibited significant differences across regions and socioeconomic factors. Thus, the average resilience index is lower in rural areas compared to urban areas, and similarly, households headed by women exhibit lower resilience levels relative to those headed by men. Furthermore, the resilience capacity index and food security indicators show statistically significant negative correlations with idiosyncratic and systemic disturbances reported, suggesting that their occurrence could have negative impacts on households. One of the key findings is that strengthening the pillars positively impacts social well-being. Therefore, we recommend that development policies focus on supporting households in diversifying income sources, improving access to essential social services, developing supportive economic infrastructure, and enhancing social safety nets to increase the resilience of vulnerable households.

Vegetation greening mitigates the positive impacts of climate change on water availability in Northwest China

Climate change alters water availability (precipitation minus evapotranspiration, i.e., water yield, WY), especially in arid regions like Northwest China (NWC) where water resources are limited. Despite large-scale implementation of ecological restoration projects has contributed to greener vegetation, this may exacerbate dryland water stress, which in turn interferes with climate change impacts on WY. To better understand this issue we used the random forest model to differentiate the effects of climate change and human activities on WY. We also employed the structural equation model to explore how vegetation greening influenced climate-induced WY trends. The results showed that the multi-year average WY in NWC was 2162.21 t and demonstrated a rising trend from 1982 to 2018, primarily driven by climate change. In contrast, anthropogenic activities had minimal effects on WY but were effective in amplifying the warming and wetting effects of climate (6.64 %-7.98 %) and counteracting unfavorable climate stress effects. Vegetation greening exacerbated soil water depletion, leading to increased evapotranspiration and mitigating the positive effects of climate change on WY. Our results are crucial for an effective comprehension of the role of vegetation in regulating terrestrial water fluxes in arid regions, providing a theoretical basis for ecological restoration.

Future directions for deep ocean climate science and evidence-based decision making

IntroductionA defining aspect of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports (AR) is a formal uncertainty language framework that emphasizes higher certainty issues across the reports, especially in the executive summaries and short summaries for policymakers. As a result, potentially significant risks involving understudied components of the climate system are shielded from view.MethodsHere we seek to address this in the latest, sixth assessment report (AR6) for one such component—the deep ocean—by summarizing major uncertainties (based on discussions of low confidence issues or gaps) regarding its role in our changing climate system. The goal is to identify key research priorities to improve IPCC confidence levels in deep ocean systems and facilitate the dissemination of IPCC results regarding potentially high impact deep ocean processes to decision-makers. This will accelerate improvement of global climate projections and aid in informing efforts to mitigate climate change impacts. An analysis of 3,000 pages across the six selected AR6 reports revealed 219 major science gaps related to the deep ocean. These were categorized by climate stressor and nature of impacts.ResultsHalf of these are biological science gaps, primarily surrounding our understanding of changes in ocean ecosystems, fisheries, and primary productivity. The remaining science gaps are related to uncertainties in the physical (32%) and biogeochemical (15%) ocean states and processes. Model deficiencies are the leading cited cause of low certainty in the physical ocean and ice states, whereas causes of biological uncertainties are most often attributed to limited studies and observations or conflicting results.DiscussionKey areas for coordinated effort within the deep ocean observing and modeling community have emerged, which will improve confidence in the deep ocean state and its ongoing changes for the next assessment report. This list of key “known unknowns” includes meridional overturning circulation, ocean deoxygenation and acidification, primary production, food supply and the ocean carbon cycle, climate change impacts on ocean ecosystems and fisheries, and ocean-based climate interventions. From these findings, we offer recommendations for AR7 to avoid omitting low confidence-high risk changes in the climate system.