Climatic Niche Research Articles

Exploring the Climatic Niche Evolution of the Genus Falco (Aves: Falconidae) in Europe.

By integrating species distribution modeling techniques, phylogenetic comparative methods, and climatic data, we analyzed how European falcon climatic niches have changed over evolutionary time in order to understand their tempo and mode of evolution and gain phylogenetic insights related to the ecological context of falcon evolution. For this purpose, we tested the relative contributions of niche conservatism, convergent evolution, and divergent evolution in the evolutionary history of this group of species in Europe. The occupation of climatic niche spaces by falcon species in Europe was not similar, considering that their climatic niche evolution was characterized by heterotachy, especially after ca. 4 Mya. Our results indicate that convergent evolution and niche divergence played an important role in the evolutionary history of these species, with no significant evidence of closely related species retaining their fundamental niche over time (phylogenetic niche conservatism). In most analyses, less closely related falcon species occupied similar climatic environments. We found that speciation in the European genus Falco was influenced by climatic niche differentiation, more prevalent in the last 4 million years, with the main climatic niche shifts occurring between closely related falcon species.

Past, present and future in the geographical distribution of Mexican Tepezmaite cycads: Genus Ceratozamia.

Ceratozamia morettii, C. brevifrons, and C. tenuis are cycads considered endangered in montane forests in the center of Veracruz state. However, the amount of theoretical and empirical information available on the historical distribution of these species and how they could be affected in the future by the effects of climate change still needs to be increased. Our objective was to generate information on the spatial distribution of the species since the last glacial maximum, present, and future. To map the spatial distribution of species, we created a potential distribution model for each species. The spatial data used for the models included 19 bioclimatic data variables in the present, at the last glacial maximum using two models (CCSM4 and MIROC), and in the future (2080) using two models of the RCP 8.5 scenario of climate change (HadGEM2-CC and MIROC5). We found that each species occupies a unique ecoregion and climatic niche. Ceratozamia morettii and C. tenuis have a similar pattern with an expansion of their distribution area since the last glacial maximum with a larger distribution area in the present and a projected reduction in their distribution under future climatic conditions. For C. brevifrons, we also showed an increase in their distributional area since the last glacial maximum. We also showed that this expansion will continue under future climatic conditions when the species reaches its maximum distributional area. Projections about the future of these endemic cycad species show changes in their habitat, highlighting that temperate zone species (C. morettii and C. tenuis) will face imminent extinction if no effort is made to protect them. On the other hand, the tropical climate species (C. brevifrons) will be favored.

Invading plants remain undetected in a lag phase while they explore suitable climates.

Successful alien species may experience a period of quiescence, known as the lag phase, before becoming invasive and widespread. The existence of lags introduces severe uncertainty in risk analyses of aliens as the present state of species is a poor predictor of future distributions, invasion success and impact. Predicting a species' ability to invade and pose negative impacts requires a quantitative understanding of the commonality and magnitude of lags, environmental factors and mechanisms likely to terminate lag. Using herbarium and climate data, we analysed over 5,700 time series (species × regions) in 3,505 naturalized plant species from nine regions in temperate and tropical climates to quantify lags and test whether there have been shifts in the species' climatic space during the transition from the lag phase to the expansion phase. Lags were identified in 35% of the assessed invasion events. We detected phylogenetic signals for lag phases in temperate climate regions and that annual self-fertilizing species were less likely to experience lags. Where lags existed, they had an average length of 40 years and a maximum of 320 years. Lengthy lags (>100 years) were more likely to occur in perennial plants and less frequent in self-pollinating species. For 98% of the species with a lag phase, the climate spaces sampled during the lag period differed from those in the expansion phase based on the assessment of centroid shifts or degree of climate space overlap. Our results highlight the importance of functional traits for the onset of the expansion phase and suggest that climate discovery may play a role in terminating the lag phase. However, other possibilities, such as sampling issues and climate niche shifts, cannot be ruled out.

Investigating odonates' response to climate change in Great Britain: A tale of two strategies

AbstractAimSpecies are largely thought to maintain broadly static niches over time, an assumption underpinning much theoretical ecology including the implementation of ecological models to project species' current and future distributions. Here, we assess niche conservatism in odonates in Great Britain over the past six decades by simultaneously quantifying changes in species geographic distribution and evaluating temporal trends in species realised climatic niche.LocationGreat Britain.MethodsDistributional changes were assessed by calculating changes in species distribution centres and deriving occupancy trends. Changes in climatic niches were assessed using a principal component analysis to quantify niche overlap, using information on both climate averages and extremes.ResultsWe show that dragonflies and damselflies displayed distinct responses to changing climatic conditions. Dragonflies shifting to higher latitudes maintained, on average, greater consistency in their climatic niches, providing evidence for climate tracking. Greater climate niche flexibility and increased occupancy over time, on the other hand, were more common in damselflies.Main ConclusionsWe unveil evidence for climatic niche divergence in damselflies on a national scale, casting doubt on the relevance of species distribution models for predicting the impacts of climate change on this, and potentially other, groups of species. More broadly, our results call for more multi‐species temporal comparisons of spatial distributions and climate niches during recent periods of changes in climatic conditions to improve our ability to contrast species' vulnerability risk to the ongoing climate crisis.

Records of urban occurrences expand estimates of the climate niches in tree species

AbstractAimQuantifying a species' climate niche is often the first step to determining potential sensitivity to climate change. This process typically relies on native occurrence records, assuming that these reflect the breadth of a species' climatic requirements. Yet, many species survive in non‐native regions with climates beyond their native range. Identifying their characteristics could help to better elucidate responses to climate change. Here, we use an extensive data set of urban street tree and native range records for 566 tree species to assess differences between species native and urban climate niches and whether niche differences are predictable given characteristics of species native ranges.LocationGlobal.Time Period1970–2020.Major Taxa StudiedTree species.MethodsMultivariate niche estimations were undertaken using eight climate variables. Calculations included the size of species' urban and native niches, overlap and direction of shift. Relationships between niches and native range attributes (temperature and precipitation breadth, range size, Köppen Geiger subclasses occupied) were calculated using multiple linear regression.Results83% of tree species studied had significantly larger urban niches compared to native niches. Species with narrow geographic ranges demonstrated greater mismatch between their two niches, and the direction of niche shift was associated with their native range Köppen Geiger zone. For example, species native to the wet tropics tend to be planted in cooler, drier urban spaces; those native to cold regions are planted in warmer urban spaces.Main ConclusionNative range occurrences may poorly reflect the breadth of climatic conditions a species can tolerate—particularly for species with narrow geographic ranges. For some species, Köppen Geiger zones may be a useful proxy to help understand sensitivity to climate change. Accounting for possible plasticity in tree species to climate can improve our understanding of their sensitivity and adaptive capacity to climate change.

A standard approach for including climate change responses in IUCN Red List assessments.

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List is a central tool for extinction risk monitoring and influences global biodiversity policy and action. But, to be effective, it is crucial that it consistently accounts for each driver of extinction. Climate change is rapidly becoming a key extinction driver, but consideration of climate change information remains challenging for the IUCN. Several methods can be used to predict species' future decline, but they often fail to provide estimates of the symptoms of endangerment used by IUCN. We devised a standardized method to measure climate change impact in terms of change in habitat quality to inform criterion A3 on future population reduction. Using terrestrial nonvolant tetrapods as a case study, we measured this impact as the difference between the current and the future species climatic niche, defined based on current and future bioclimatic variables under alternative model algorithms, dispersal scenarios, emission scenarios, and climate models. Our models identified 171 species (13% out of those analyzed) for which their current red-list category could worsen under criterion A3 if they cannot disperse beyond their current range in the future. Categories for 14 species (1.5%) could worsen if maximum dispersal is possible. Although ours is a simulation exercise and not a formal red-list assessment, our results suggest that considering climate change impacts may reduce misclassification and strengthen consistency and comprehensiveness of IUCN Red List assessments.

Divergence in evolutionary potential of life history traits among wild populations is predicted by differences in climatic conditions.

Short-term adaptive evolution represents one of the primary mechanisms allowing species to persist in the face of global change. Predicting the adaptive response at the species level requires reliable estimates of the evolutionary potential of traits involved in adaptive responses, as well as understanding how evolutionary potential varies across a species' range. Theory suggests that spatial variation in the fitness landscape due to environmental variation will directly impact the evolutionary potential of traits. However, empirical evidence on the link between environmental variation and evolutionary potential across a species range in the wild is lacking. In this study, we estimate multivariate evolutionary potential (via the genetic variance-covariance matrix, or G-matrix) for six morphological and life history traits in 10 wild populations of great tits (Parus major) distributed across Europe. The G-matrix significantly varies in size, shape, and orientation across populations for both types of traits. For life history traits, the differences in G-matrix are larger when populations are more distant in their climatic niche. This suggests that local climates contribute to shaping the evolutionary potential of phenotypic traits that are strongly related to fitness. However, we found no difference in the overall evolutionary potential (i.e., G-matrix size) between populations closer to the core or the edge of the distribution area. This large-scale comparison of G-matrices across wild populations emphasizes that integrating variation in multivariate evolutionary potential is important to understand and predict species' adaptive responses to new selective pressures.

Climatic‐niche breadth, niche position, and speciation in lizards and snakes

AbstractAimThe climatic niche is associated with diversification in many groups of animals and plants. However, the relationships between climatic‐niche breadth evolution, climatic‐niche position evolution, and speciation remain underexplored. It is particularly unclear whether changes in climatic‐niche breadth are related to diversification. We tested two hypotheses relating niche breadth, niche position, and speciation using climatic data in Squamata (lizards and snakes), one of the largest radiations of tetrapods. These hypotheses were: (1) the oscillation hypothesis (niche breadth changes along with niche position and speciation) and (2) the musical‐chairs hypothesis (niche breadth remains relatively constant when niche position changes during speciation).LocationGlobal.TaxonSquamata (lizards and snakes).MethodsWe estimated rates of speciation and evolutionary rates for both climatic‐niche position and climatic‐niche breadth for 5320 squamate species. We tested relationships among these rates using Bayesian phylogenetic generalised linear‐mixed models.ResultsHigher speciation rates were associated with higher rates of evolution in niche position and in niche breadth. Faster rates of change in niche breadth were related to narrower niches and faster rates of change in niche position.Main ConclusionsOur results support the oscillation hypothesis to explain the relationships between speciation and changes in climatic‐niche position and climatic‐niche breadth. We found that species that changed climatic‐niche breadths more rapidly: (1) speciated faster; (2) evolved towards narrower niche breadths; and (3) changed climatic‐niche positions more rapidly. These results suggest that oscillation between wider and narrower niches is coupled with climatic‐niche divergence and speciation. These conclusions may apply to many other groups of plants and animals in which speciation is often related to climatic‐niche divergence.

Tree-ring formation dynamics in Fagus sylvatica and Quercus petraea in a dry and a wet year

European beech Fagus sylvatica and Sessile oak Quercus petraea are reaching the north-eastern limits of their natural ranges in northern Poland. According to the projected changes in potential ranges in this region, climatic conditions for both species until 2080 will remain stable. On the other hand, a decrease in the vitality of mature trees and a reduction in their radial growth are currently observed. To understand these contradictory findings, we monitored the cambial activity in both species during two vegetation seasons. 2015 was characterized by a negative water balance, while 2017 was wet. This provided an opportunity to compare how the xylogenesis proceeds in diffuse-porous beech and ring-porous oak during contrasting in the summer precipitation seasons. The forming annual increments were sampled with Presler borer at variable time intervals depending on the leaf phenological phases. The cores were prepared using a sledge microtome and double-stained with safranin and astra blue. Observations of the phases of wood formation and measurements of the width of the forming increments were analysed on the microslide digital images. Differences in the dates of the phenological phases were analysed using Two-Way ANOVA, while the dynamics of the formation of annual increments were fitted to the Single and Double Gompertz function for beech and oak, respectively. The beginning of vessel formation started earlier in both seasons compared to previous studies. Inter-seasonal differences in the duration of spring phenological phases were insignificant for both species, while inter-species differences were significant due to physiological diversity between diffuse-porous beech and ring-porous oak. In dry 2015, cambial activity ceased sooner in both species than in 2017. Differences between oak and beech were insignificant in both years, but statistically significant disparities existed within each species due to varying in precipitation seasons. Rainfall significantly elongated the duration of cambial activity and caused wider tree-rings. According to our study, despite predicted maintaining their climatic niche, both species, situated at the north-eastern cooler range boundary, are expected to produce wood at a lower rate due to the projected warmer central European climate with increased heatwaves and summer droughts.

Global spatial distribution of Prosopis juliflora -one of the world's worst 100 invasive alien species under changing climate using multiple machine learning models.

Climate change is one of the factors contributing to the spread of invasive alien species. As a result, it is critical to investigate potential invasion dynamics on a global scale in the face of climate change. We used updated occurrence data, bioclimatic variables, and Köppen-Geiger climatic zones to better understand the climatic niche dynamics of Prosopis juliflora L. (Fabaceae). In this study, we first compared several algorithms-MaxEnt, generalized linear model (GLM), artificial neural network (ANN), generalized boosted model (GBM), generalized additive model (GAM), and random forest (RF)-to investigate the relationships between species-environment and climate for mesquite. We identified the global climate niche similarity sites (NSSs) using the coalesce approach. This study focused on the current and future climatic suitability of P. juliflora under two global circulation models (GCMs) and two climatic scenarios, i.e., Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), 4.5 and 8.5, for 2050 and 2070, respectively. Sensitivity, specificity, true skill statistic (TSS), kappa coefficient, and correlation were used to evaluate model performance. Among the tested models, the machine learning algorithm random forest (RF) demonstrated the highest accuracy. The vast swaths of currently uninvaded land on multiple continents are ideal habitats for invasion. Approximately 9.65% of the area is highly suitable for the establishment of P. juliflora. Consequently, certain regions in the Americas, Africa, Asia, Europe, and Oceania have become particularly vulnerable to invasion. In relation to RCPs, we identified suitable area changes (expansion, loss, and stability). The findings of this study show that NSSs and RCPs increase the risk of invasion in specific parts of the world. Our findings contribute to a cross-border continental conservation effort to combat P. juliflora expansion into new potential invasion areas.

Bioinspire-Explore: Taxonomy-Driven Exploration of Biodiversity Data for Bioinspired Innovation.

Successful bioinspired design depends on practitioners' access to biological data in a relevant form. Although multiple open-access biodiversity databases exist, their presentation is often adapted to life scientists, rather than bioinspired designers. In this paper, we present a new tool, "Bioinspire-Explore", for navigating biodiversity data in order to uncover biological systems of interest for a range of sectors. Bioinspire-Explore allows users to search for inspiring biological models via taxa (species, genera, etc.) as an entry point. It provides information on a taxon's position in the "tree of life", its distribution and climatic niche, as well as its appearance. Bioinspire-Explore also shows users connections in the bioinspiration literature between their taxon of interest and associated biological processes, habitats, and physical measurements by way of their semantic proximity. We believe Bioinspire-Explore has the potential to become an indispensable resource for both biologists and bioinspired designers in different fields.

Species-level correlates of land-use responses and climate-change sensitivity in terrestrial vertebrates.

Land-use and climate change are major pressures on terrestrial biodiversity. Species' extinction risk and responses to human pressures relate to ecological traits and other characteristics in some clades. However, large-scale comparative assessments of the associations between traits and responses to multiple human pressures across multiple clades are needed. We investigated whether a set of ecological characteristics that are commonly measured across terrestrial vertebrates (ecological traits and geographic range area) are associated with species' responses to different land-use types and species' likely sensitivity to climate change. We aimed to test whether generalizable patterns in response to these pressures arise across both pressures and across vertebrate clades, which could inform assessments of the global signature of human pressures on vertebrate biodiversity and guide conservation efforts. At the species level, we investigated associations between land-use responses and ecological characteristics with a space-for-time substitution approach, making use of the PREDICTS database. We investigated associations between ecological characteristics and expected climate-change sensitivity, estimated from properties of species realized climatic niches. Among the characteristics we considered, 3 were consistently associated with strong land-use responses and high climate-change sensitivity across terrestrial vertebrate classes: narrow geographic range, narrow habitat breadth, and specialization on natural habitats (which described whether a species occurs in artificial habitats or not). The associations of other traits with species' land-use responses and climate-change sensitivity often depended on species' class and land-use type, highlighting an important degree of context dependency. In all classes, invertebrate eaters and fruit and nectar eaters tended to be negatively affected in disturbed land-use types, whereas invertebrate-eating and plant- and seed-eating birds were estimated to be more sensitive to climate change, raising concerns about the continuation of ecological processes sustained by these species under global changes. Our results highlight a consistently higher sensitivity of narrowly distributed species and habitat specialists to land-use and climate change, which provides support for capturing such characteristics in large-scale vulnerability assessments.

Monitoring of species’ genetic diversity in Europe varies greatly and overlooks potential climate change impacts

Genetic monitoring of populations currently attracts interest in the context of the Convention on Biological Diversity but needs long-term planning and investments. However, genetic diversity has been largely neglected in biodiversity monitoring, and when addressed, it is treated separately, detached from other conservation issues, such as habitat alteration due to climate change. We report an accounting of efforts to monitor population genetic diversity in Europe (genetic monitoring effort, GME), the evaluation of which can help guide future capacity building and collaboration towards areas most in need of expanded monitoring. Overlaying GME with areas where the ranges of selected species of conservation interest approach current and future climate niche limits helps identify whether GME coincides with anticipated climate change effects on biodiversity. Our analysis suggests that country area, financial resources and conservation policy influence GME, high values of which only partially match species’ joint patterns of limits to suitable climatic conditions. Populations at trailing climatic niche margins probably hold genetic diversity that is important for adaptation to changing climate. Our results illuminate the need in Europe for expanded investment in genetic monitoring across climate gradients occupied by focal species, a need arguably greatest in southeastern European countries. This need could be met in part by expanding the European Union’s Birds and Habitats Directives to fully address the conservation and monitoring of genetic diversity.

Three hundred years of past and future changes for native fish species in the upper Danube River Basin—Historical flow alterations versus future climate change

AbstractAimRivers belong to the most threatened ecosystems on Earth. Historical anthropogenic alterations have, and future climate change will further affect rivers and the species therein. While many studies have projected climate change effects on species, little is known about the severity of these changes compared to historical alterations. Here, we used a unique 300‐year time series of hydrological and climate data to explore the vulnerability of 48 native fish species in the upper Danube River Basin to past and potential future environmental changes.LocationUpper Danube River Basins (Germany and Austria).MethodsWe applied a climate niche factor analysis and calculated species‐specific vulnerability estimates based on modelled and observed hydrological and climate data from 1800 to 2100. We compared the estimated species vulnerabilities between two historical time intervals (1800–1830 and 1900–1930) and a future time interval (2070–2100, including the two representative concentration pathways 4.5 and 8.5) to an observed reference time interval (1970–2000). In addition, we identified the main environmental drivers of species vulnerability and their change over the past 200 years and for the predicted 100 years in the future.ResultsOur results showed that (i) in the past, species vulnerability was mainly driven by changes in discharge, while (ii) future potential vulnerabilities would be due to temperature. Moreover, we found that (iii) future environmental conditions for riverine fish species driven by temperature would change at a similar magnitude as past hydrological changes, driven by anthropogenic river alterations. Future changes, projected for the RCP 4.5, would result in moderate species vulnerability, whereas for the RCP 8.5, the vulnerability for all species would substantially increase compared to the historical conditions.Main ConclusionAccounting for an extended timeline uncovers the extent of historical pressures and provides unprecedented opportunities to proactively plan conservation strategies that are necessary to address future challenges.

Paleoclimatic reconstruction of the Late Pleistocene Talara Tar Seeps, Peru, using fossil reptiles, small mammals, and birds

Functional traits of vertebrates can be used to infer paleoenvironmental conditions, allowing research into past climate changes and biotic responses. Birds are generally considered poor palaeoclimatic proxies due to their high vagility. Here, we analyze biogeographical and climatic niche information from multiple vertebrate groups including small mammals, reptiles, and birds to infer the paleoclimatic conditions present during the Late Pleistocene (∼14,500–17,000 years BP) at Talara, an asphaltic paleontological locality on the northern Peruvian coast. We created Ecological Niche Models for the nearest living relative of each fossil species identified at Talara. We then used the Mutual Ecogeographic Range method, obtaining the overlapping area between distributions for each vertebrate group (birds, reptiles, and small mammals) as well as for combinations of groups, to infer the paleoclimate at Talara and to determinate what taxonomic groups are best for reconstructing climate in this system. Our analyses indicate that conditions at Talara were slightly cooler and significantly wetter than those of the present day. Individually, different vertebrate groups provide different paleoclimatic information. Birds were found to be a poor paleoclimatic proxy. Mammals were good for inferring paleoprecipitation but not paleotemperature. Reptiles were good group for inferring paleotemperature but not paleoprecipitation. While analyzing all vertebrate groups together yields the most robust conclusions, reptiles and small mammals combined are a good proxy for inferring both paleoprecipitation and paleotemperature. Our results suggest an interstadial period that agrees with paleotemperatures inferred from isotopic and sedimentary information. Our research indicates that today, the southern portion of the Cauca biogeographic province (230 km NE from Talara) has comparable climatic conditions to Late Pleistocene Talara. Understanding how the Talara region transitioned from this biodiverse ecosystem to the hyperarid coastal desert of today could have important implications for predicting biotic response and tipping points in the context of modern climate change.

Micro‐ and macroclimate interactively shape diversity, niches and traits of Orthoptera communities along elevational gradients

AbstractAimTemperature is one of the main drivers shaping species diversity and assembly processes. Yet, site‐specific effects of the local microclimate on species and trait compositions of insect communities have rarely been assessed along macroclimatic temperature clines.LocationBavarian Alps, Germany.MethodsBayesian joint species distribution models were applied to investigate how ecological and morphological traits drive variation in the climatic niches of 32 Orthoptera species on 93 grassland sites with contrasting microclimatic conditions along a steep elevational macroclimatic gradient in an Alpine region in Central Europe.ResultsSpecies richness and abundance decreased along the elevational macroclimatic gradient, and both benefitted from warm microclimate. Interactive effects of elevation and microclimate on the abundance were, however, species‐specific, and partly mediated by traits: Warm microclimatic conditions facilitated the occurrence of demanding xerophilic and late‐hatching species, resulting in marked community dissimilarities at mid‐elevations where colder sites harboured only a subset of the species. The latter mainly occurred at low elevations together with long‐winged species. Abundance peaks of non‐xerophilic species were further upslope when microclimate was warm. Intraspecifically, the body sizes and wing lengths of the larger females, but not the males, decreased with elevation akin the community mean, and brown colour morphs were more frequent at sites with warm microclimate.Main ConclusionsOur nuanced results reveal that trait‐dependent responses of species to microclimate play a key role in the assembly and structuring of insect communities along macroclimatic gradients. Since microclimate preferences changed with elevation, we conclude that species temperature niches are narrower than the elevational range suggests and both macro‐ and microclimatic conditions must be considered when predicting species responses to climate change. Microclimatic contrasts among sites at similar elevations enhanced species turnover mediated by moisture preferences and phenology, highlighting the importance of mountains for conservation as climatic refugia where species with diverging niches can persist in proximity.

Testing the Tropical Niche Conservatism Hypothesis: Climatic Niche Evolution of Escallonia Mutis ex L. F. (Escalloniaceae).

We assess the Tropical Niche Conservatism Hypothesis in the genus Escallonia in South America using phylogeny, paleoclimate estimation and current niche modelling. We tested four predictions: (1) the climatic condition where the ancestor of Escallonia grew is megathermal; (2) the temperate niche is a derived condition from tropical clades; (3) the most closely related species have a similar current climate niche (conservation of the phylogenetic niche); and (4) there is a range expansion from the northern Andes to high latitudes during warm times. Our phylogenetic hypothesis shows that Escallonia originated 52.17 ± 0.85 My, in the early Eocene, with an annual mean temperature of 13.8 °C and annual precipitation of 1081 mm, corresponding to a microthermal to mesothermal climate; the species of the northern and central tropical Andes would be the ancestral ones, and the temperate species evolved between 32 and 20 My in a microthermal climate. The predominant evolutionary models were Brownian and Ornstein-Uhlenbeck. There was phylogenetic signal in 7 of the 9 variables, indicating conservation of the climatic niche. Escallonia would have originated in the central and southern Andes and reached the other environments by dispersion.

The interplay between climatic niche evolution, polyploidy and reproductive traits explains plant speciation in the Mediterranean Basin: a case study in Centaurium (Gentianaceae).

Speciation and diversification patterns in angiosperms are frequently shaped by niche evolution. Centaurium Hill is a Mediterranean genus with ca. 25 species, of which 60% are polyploids (tetra- and hexaploids), distributed mainly in the Mediterranean Basin and in areas with temperate and arid climates of Asia, Europe, North-Central Africa and North America. The evolutionary history of this genus has been studied using morphological, biogeographical and molecular approaches, but its climatic niche characterization and its relation with genome evolution (chromosome number and ploidy level) has not been addressed yet. Thus, this study aims to identify the role of the evolution of climatic niche, ploidy level, life cycle and floral traits in the diversification of Centaurium. Climatic niche characterization involved estimating present climate preferences using quantitative data and reconstructing ancestral niches to evaluate climatic niche shifts. The evolution of climatic niche towards selective optima determined by ploidy level (three ploidy levels) and different binary traits (polyploidy, floral size, floral display, herkogamy and life cycle) was addressed under the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model. Chromosome number evolution was inferred using the ChromoSSE model, testing if changes are clado- or anagenetic. Chromosome number evolution and its link with cladogenesis, life cycle and floral traits was modeled on the phylogeny. The reconstruction of the ancestral niches shows that Centaurium originated in a mild climate and diversified to both humid and cold as well as to dry and warmer climates. Niche conservatism was estimated in the climatic niche of the ancestors, while the climatic niche of the current taxa experienced transitions from their ancestors' niche. Besides, the evolution of climatic niche towards multiple selective optima determined by the studied traits was supported, life cycle optima receiving the highest support. The reconstruction of chromosome number transitions shows that the rate of speciation process resulting from chromosomal changes (chromosomal cladogenesis) is similar to that of non-chromosomal cladogenesis. Additionally, dependent evolution of floral size, floral display and herkogamy with chromosome number variation was supported. In conclusion, polyploidization is a crucial process in the Mediterranean region that assisted speciation and diversification into new areas with different climates, entailing niche shifts and evolution of reproductive strategies.

How many species will Earth lose to climate change?

Climate change may be an important threat to global biodiversity, potentially leading to the extinction of numerous species. But how many? There have been various attempts to answer this question, sometimes yielding strikingly different estimates. Here, we review these estimates, assess their disagreements and methodology, and explore how we might reach better estimates. Large-scale studies have estimated the extinction of ~1% of sampled species up to ~70%, even when using the same approach (species distribution models; SDMs). Nevertheless, worst-case estimates often converge near 20%-30% species loss, and many differences shrink when using similar assumptions. We perform a new review of recent SDM studies, which show ~17% loss of species to climate change under worst-case scenarios. However, this review shows that many SDM studies are biased by excluding the most vulnerable species (those known from few localities), which may lead to underestimating global species loss. Conversely, our analyses of recent climate change responses show that a fundamental assumption of SDM studies, that species' climatic niches do not change over time, may be frequently violated. For example, we find mean rates of positive thermal niche change across species of ~0.02°C/year. Yet, these rates may still be slower than projected climate change by ~3-4 fold. Finally, we explore how global extinction levels can be estimated by combining group-specific estimates of species loss with recent group-specific projections of global species richness (including cryptic insect species). These preliminary estimates tentatively forecast climate-related extinction of 14%-32% of macroscopic species in the next ~50 years, potentially including 3-6 million (or more) animal and plant species, even under intermediate climate change scenarios.

Modeling the current and projected distribution of Brazilian peppertree Schinus terebinthifolia Raddi (Anacardiaceae) in the Americas.

Global biodiversity is under substantial threat due to biological invasions, a problem exacerbated by climate change. Such invasions have detrimental effects on the environment, economy, and human health, resulting in significant financial burdens. Recently, understanding these challenges has become a highlighted priority within the scientific community. This study focuses on the evaluation of Schinus terebinthifolia, native to South America, and its invasive spread into North and Central America, which has resulted in wide distribution and considerable impact. The primary objectives of this study include analyzing the potential distribution of the species under current and future climate scenarios, identifying the areas where its climatic niche is changing. Data collection encompassed a vast dataset of over 30,000 occurrence records of this species, from the following databases: (1) The Global Biodiversity Information Facility provided 22,163 records (GBIF), (2) The virtual Herbarium Reflora contributed 1,438 records, and NeoTropTree made available 6,591 records. Following a rigorous filtering process, 992 occurrences were considered for modeling. In this process, we utilized climate data and climate projections, employing various algorithms, with an emphasis on the consensus model methodology. The research results reveal a clear trend of reduced habitat suitability for S. terebinthifolia, especially under scenarios of high global warming. This accentuates the urgency of implementing emission control measures and mitigation strategies. Additionally, the study underscores the crucial importance of continuous monitoring, as well as actions for controlling and restoring affected ecosystems. The significant role played by S. terebinthifolia in both its native and invaded areas highlights the need for comprehensive management approaches. In the face of climate change and biodiversity threats, this study provides insightful observations on the dynamics of biological invasions. Success in addressing these issues relies on close cooperation between the scientific community, policymakers, land managers, and local communities. This collaboration is essential for guiding and conducting conservation and biodiversity management efforts in an ever-evolving world.