Climatic Niche Shifts Research Articles

Climate Futures for Lizards and Snakes in Western North America May Result in New Species Management Issues.

We assessed changes in fundamental climate-niche space for lizard and snake species in western North America under modeled climate scenarios to inform natural resource managers of possible shifts in species distributions. We generated eight distribution models for each of 130 snake and lizard species in western North America under six time-by-climate scenarios. We combined the highest-performing models per species into a single ensemble model for each scenario. Maps were generated from the ensemble models to depict climate-niche space for each species and scenario. Patterns of species richness based on climate suitability and niche shifts were calculated from the projections at the scale of the entire study area and individual states and provinces, from Canada to Mexico. Squamate species' climate-niche space for the recent-time climate scenario and published known ranges were highly correlated (r = 0.81). Overall, reptile climate-niche space was projected to move northward in the future. Sixty-eight percent of species were projected to expand their current climate-niche space rather than to shift, contract, or remain stable. Only 8.5% of species were projected to lose climate-niche space in the future, and these species primarily occurred in Mexico and the southwestern U.S. We found few species were projected to lose all suitable climate-niche space at the state or province level, although species were often predicted to occupy novel areas, such as at higher elevations. Most squamate species were projected to increase their climate-niche space in future climate scenarios. As climate niches move northward, species are predicted to cross administrative borders, resulting in novel conservation issues for local landowners and natural resource agencies. However, information on species dispersal abilities, landscape connectivity, biophysical tolerances, and habitat suitability is needed to contextualize predictions relative to realized future niche expansions.

Big-brained alien birds tend to occur climatic niche shifts through enhanced behavioral innovation.

Identifying climatic niche shift and its influencing factors is of great significance in predicting the risk of alien species invasions accurately. Previous studies have attempted to identify the factors related to the niche shift of alien species in their invaded ranges, including changes in introduction history, selection of exact climate predictors, and anthropogenic factors. However, the effect of species-level traits on niche shift remains largely unexplored, especially those reflecting the species' adaptation ability to new environments. Based on the occurrence data of 117 successful alien bird invaders at a global scale, their native and invaded climatic niches were compared, and the potential influencing factors were identified. Our results show the niche overlap was low, with more than 75% of the non-native birds representing climatic niche shift (i.e. >10% niche expansion). In addition, 85% of the species showed a large proportion (mean ± SD, 39% ± 21%) of niche unfilling. Relative brain size (RBS) after accounting for body size had no direct effect on niche shift, but path analysis showed that RBS had an indirect effect on niche shift by acting on behavioral innovation primarily on technical innovation rather than consumer innovation. These findings suggested the incorporation of species' important behavioral adaptation traits may be promising to develop future prediction frameworks of biological invasion risk in response to the continued global change.

Range and climate niche shifts in European and North American breedingbirds.

Species respond dynamically to climate change and exhibit time lags. Consequently, species may not occupy their full climatic niche during range shifting. Here, we assessed climate niche tracking during recent range shifts of European and UnitedStates (US) birds. Using data from two European bird atlases and from the North American Breeding Bird Survey betweenthe 1980s and 2010s, we analysed range overlap and climate niche overlap based on kernel density estimation. Phylogenetic multiple regression was used to assess the effect of species morphological, ecological and biogeographic traits on range and niche metrics. European birds shifted their ranges north and north-eastwards, US birds westwards. Range unfilling was lower than expected by null models, and niche expansion was more common than niche unfilling. Also, climate niche tracking was generally lower in US birds and poorly explained by species traits. Overall, our results suggest that dispersal limitations were minor in range shifting birds in Europe and theUSA while delayed extinctions from unfavourable areas seem more important. Regional differences could be related to differences in land use history and monitoring schemes. Comparative analyses of range and niche shifts provide a useful screening approach for identifying the importance of transient dynamics and time-lagged responses to climate change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Identifying Climatic Niche Shift of The Endemic Avifauna of Western Ghats

Identifying Climatic Niche Shift of The Endemic Avifauna of Western Ghats

Climatic and biogeographic processes underlying the diversification of the pantropical flowering plant family Annonaceae.

Tropical forests harbor the richest biodiversity among terrestrial ecosystems, but few studies have addressed the underlying processes of species diversification in these ecosystems. We use the pantropical flowering plant family Annonaceae as a study system to investigate how climate and biogeographic events contribute to diversification. A super-matrix phylogeny comprising 835 taxa (34% of Annonaceae species) based on eight chloroplast regions was used in this study. We show that global temperature may better explain the recent rapid diversification in Annonaceae than time and constant models. Accelerated accumulation of niche divergence (around 15 Ma) lags behind the increase of diversification rate (around 25 Ma), reflecting a heterogeneous transition to recent diversity increases. Biogeographic events are related to only two of the five diversification rate shifts detected. Shifts in niche evolution nevertheless appear to be associated with increasingly seasonal environments. Our results do not support the direct correlation of any particular climatic niche shifts or historical biogeographical event with shifts in diversification rate. Instead, we suggest that Annonaceae diversification can lead to later niche divergence as a result of increasing interspecific competition arising from species accumulation. Shifts in niche evolution appear to be associated with increasingly seasonal environments. Our results highlight the complexity of diversification in taxa with long evolutionary histories.

Exploring the Climatic Niche Evolution of the Genus Falco (Aves: Falconidae) in Europe.

By integrating species distribution modeling techniques, phylogenetic comparative methods, and climatic data, we analyzed how European falcon climatic niches have changed over evolutionary time in order to understand their tempo and mode of evolution and gain phylogenetic insights related to the ecological context of falcon evolution. For this purpose, we tested the relative contributions of niche conservatism, convergent evolution, and divergent evolution in the evolutionary history of this group of species in Europe. The occupation of climatic niche spaces by falcon species in Europe was not similar, considering that their climatic niche evolution was characterized by heterotachy, especially after ca. 4 Mya. Our results indicate that convergent evolution and niche divergence played an important role in the evolutionary history of these species, with no significant evidence of closely related species retaining their fundamental niche over time (phylogenetic niche conservatism). In most analyses, less closely related falcon species occupied similar climatic environments. We found that speciation in the European genus Falco was influenced by climatic niche differentiation, more prevalent in the last 4 million years, with the main climatic niche shifts occurring between closely related falcon species.

Invading plants remain undetected in a lag phase while they explore suitable climates.

Successful alien species may experience a period of quiescence, known as the lag phase, before becoming invasive and widespread. The existence of lags introduces severe uncertainty in risk analyses of aliens as the present state of species is a poor predictor of future distributions, invasion success and impact. Predicting a species' ability to invade and pose negative impacts requires a quantitative understanding of the commonality and magnitude of lags, environmental factors and mechanisms likely to terminate lag. Using herbarium and climate data, we analysed over 5,700 time series (species × regions) in 3,505 naturalized plant species from nine regions in temperate and tropical climates to quantify lags and test whether there have been shifts in the species' climatic space during the transition from the lag phase to the expansion phase. Lags were identified in 35% of the assessed invasion events. We detected phylogenetic signals for lag phases in temperate climate regions and that annual self-fertilizing species were less likely to experience lags. Where lags existed, they had an average length of 40 years and a maximum of 320 years. Lengthy lags (>100 years) were more likely to occur in perennial plants and less frequent in self-pollinating species. For 98% of the species with a lag phase, the climate spaces sampled during the lag period differed from those in the expansion phase based on the assessment of centroid shifts or degree of climate space overlap. Our results highlight the importance of functional traits for the onset of the expansion phase and suggest that climate discovery may play a role in terminating the lag phase. However, other possibilities, such as sampling issues and climate niche shifts, cannot be ruled out.

The interplay between climatic niche evolution, polyploidy and reproductive traits explains plant speciation in the Mediterranean Basin: a case study in Centaurium (Gentianaceae).

Speciation and diversification patterns in angiosperms are frequently shaped by niche evolution. Centaurium Hill is a Mediterranean genus with ca. 25 species, of which 60% are polyploids (tetra- and hexaploids), distributed mainly in the Mediterranean Basin and in areas with temperate and arid climates of Asia, Europe, North-Central Africa and North America. The evolutionary history of this genus has been studied using morphological, biogeographical and molecular approaches, but its climatic niche characterization and its relation with genome evolution (chromosome number and ploidy level) has not been addressed yet. Thus, this study aims to identify the role of the evolution of climatic niche, ploidy level, life cycle and floral traits in the diversification of Centaurium. Climatic niche characterization involved estimating present climate preferences using quantitative data and reconstructing ancestral niches to evaluate climatic niche shifts. The evolution of climatic niche towards selective optima determined by ploidy level (three ploidy levels) and different binary traits (polyploidy, floral size, floral display, herkogamy and life cycle) was addressed under the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model. Chromosome number evolution was inferred using the ChromoSSE model, testing if changes are clado- or anagenetic. Chromosome number evolution and its link with cladogenesis, life cycle and floral traits was modeled on the phylogeny. The reconstruction of the ancestral niches shows that Centaurium originated in a mild climate and diversified to both humid and cold as well as to dry and warmer climates. Niche conservatism was estimated in the climatic niche of the ancestors, while the climatic niche of the current taxa experienced transitions from their ancestors' niche. Besides, the evolution of climatic niche towards multiple selective optima determined by the studied traits was supported, life cycle optima receiving the highest support. The reconstruction of chromosome number transitions shows that the rate of speciation process resulting from chromosomal changes (chromosomal cladogenesis) is similar to that of non-chromosomal cladogenesis. Additionally, dependent evolution of floral size, floral display and herkogamy with chromosome number variation was supported. In conclusion, polyploidization is a crucial process in the Mediterranean region that assisted speciation and diversification into new areas with different climates, entailing niche shifts and evolution of reproductive strategies.

Climatic niche shift after range expansion of Eustachys (Poaceae).

Eustachys presents lower diversity in the Old World than in the Neotropics and it occurs disjunctly between main tropical regions. This qualifies Eustachys as a good model to test whether lineages expand their niches during the process of range expansion. We performed ancestral range reconstruction, compared environmental spaces of the different geographic areas and assessed bioclimatic trait evolution. Ancestral range reconstruction indicated that most speciation in Eustachys occurred in the South America. Ancestral climatic niches of the New World are different from those of African and Australasia lineages. Our results show that Eustachys experienced niche expansion when it reached the New World. Evolutionary history of Eustachys illustrates how the range expansion promoted climatic niche shifts, which could drive unbalanced species richness of the genus among different tropical regions.

Forest herb species with similar European geographic ranges may respond differently to climate change

Many phenological studies have shown that spring geophytes are very sensitive to climate change, responding by shifting flowering and fruiting dates. However, there is a gap in knowledge about climatic drivers of their distributions and range shifts under climate change. Here we aimed to estimate climate niche shifts for four widely distributed and common geophytes of the nemoral zone of Europe (Anemone nemorosa, Anemone ranunculoides, Convallaria majalis and Maianthemum bifolium) and to assess the threat level under various climate change scenarios. Using MaxEnt species distribution models and future climate change scenarios we found that the precipitation of the warmest quarter was the most important factor shaping their ranges. All species studied will experience more loss in the 2061–2080 period than in 2041–2060, and under more pessimistic scenarios. M. bifolium will experience the highest loss, followed by A. nemorosa, A. ranunculoides, and the smallest for C. majalis. A. ranunculoides will gain the most, while M. bifolium will have the smallest potential range expansion. Studied species may respond differently to climate change despite similar current distributions and climatic variables affecting their potential distribution. Even slight differences in climatic niches could reduce the overlap of future ranges compared to present. We expect that due to high dependence on the warmest quarter precipitation, summer droughts in the future may be particularly severe for species that prefer moist soils. The lack of adaptation to long-distance migration and limited availability of appropriate soils may limit their migration and lead to a decline in biodiversity and changes in European forests.

High-mountain phylogeography in the Balkan Peninsula: isolation pattern in a species of alpine siliceous grasslands and its possible background

Although the Balkan Peninsula belongs to the most mountainous regions of Europe, phylogeographic structure of its alpine flora remains insufficiently understood, especially for species distributed both in the western and eastern parts of the Peninsula. We analyzed Campanula orbelica, a Balkan endemic typical of high-mountain siliceous grasslands, based on the population genetic structure, climatic niche modeling at the species- and intraspecific level, and niche hindcasting back to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; 20 kya). Our data reveal a clear phylogeographic pattern with three geographically coherent genetic groups: (i) the most divergent and spatially restricted lineage of the Pirin mountains (east), (ii) neighboring Rila mountains and other eastern Balkan massifs (Rhodopes, Stara Planina, Vitoša), and (iii) the most geographically disjunct mountains of the Scardo-Pindhic range (Šar Planina and Korab) in the west. This pattern indicates multiple refugia and isolated evolutionary centers within the Balkan Peninsula mountains, with the eastern part of the range as likely ancestral area, and an early dispersion into the western region, which formed the main geographical disjunction. The genetic divergence was only partly correlated with geographical isolation, clear dispersal barriers, or climatic niche shifts, suggesting contrasting isolation/dispersal dynamics in various parts of the range. Climatic niche overlap was low among eastern vs. western groups, which correlates with the longest spatial distance and significant genetic divergence, while niche characteristic of the Pirin lineage was a subset of the adjacent Rila lineage niche. High genetic divergence of the Pirin populations was also not correlated with persistent gaps in potential distributions but hypothetically may have been triggered by diversified (limestone/silicate) bedrock conditions. Our results highlight the need for high-mountain phylogeographic surveys in the eastern part of the Balkan Peninsula, to assess the biogeographical relevance of isolation patterns and definition of evolutionarily important units in the high-mountain flora.

Climate change will cause climatic niche contraction of Vaccinium myrtillus L. and V. vitis-idaea L. in Europe

We estimated climate niche shifts and threat levels under various climate change scenarios for Vaccinium myrtillus L. and V. vitis-idaea L. We developed the MaxEnt species distribution models, and predicted future climatic optima for climate change scenarios for 2041–2060 and 2061–2080. The precipitation of the warmest quarter was the most important factor shaping the climatic niches of the studied species. We predicted the largest shifts in climate niches from the present to the 2040–2060 period, with the most pessimistic scenario predicting significant range losses for both species, mainly in Western Europe. Under the most optimistic SSP126 scenario, both species will lose 39 % of their climatic niche for both periods. In the worst-case scenario (SSP585) for 2061–2080, climatic niche contraction will cover 47 % and 39 % of the current climatic niche for V. myrtillus and V. vitis-idaea, respectively. The predicted changes in species distribution could have far-reaching consequences for temperate and boreal forests due to their crucial biocenotic role in forest ecosystems, high potential for carbon sequestration, and prevention of soil erosion. Furthermore, the changes would likely affect the economic potential regarding fruit production and culturally relevant uses of different parts of the plants, mainly fruits.

Climatic niche and range shifts of grey squirrels (Sciurus carolinensis Gmelin) in Europe: An invasive pest displacing native squirrels.

As an invasive pest from North America, grey squirrels (GSs; Sciurus carolinensis Gmelin) are displacing native squirrels in Europe. However, the climatic niche and range dynamics of GSs in Europe remain largely unknown. Through niche and range dynamic models, we investigated climatic niche and range shifts between introduced GSs in Europe and native GSs in North America. GSs in North America can survive in more variable climatic conditions and have much wider climatic niche breadth than do GSs in Europe. Based on climate, the potential range of GSs in Europe included primarily Britain, Ireland, and Italy, whereas the potential range of GSs in North America included vast regions of western and southern Europe. If GSs in Europe could occupy the same climatic niche space and potential range as GSs in North America, they would occupy an area ca. 2.45 times the size of their current range. The unfilling ranges of GSs in Europe relative to those of GSs in North America were primarily in France, Italy, Spain, Croatia, and Portugal. Our observations implied that GSs in Europe have significant invasion potential, and that range projections based on their occurrence records in Europe may underestimate their invasion risk. Given that small niche shifts between GSs in Europe and in North America could lead to large range shifts, niche shifts could be a sensitive indicator in invasion risk assessment. The identified unfilling ranges of the GS in Europe should be prioritized in combating GS invasions in the future. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.

Multiple invasion trajectories induce niche dynamics inconsistency and increase risk uncertainty of a plant invader

AbstractOur knowledge of how niche dynamic patterns respond to invasion trajectories and influence invasion risk prediction is elusive for the majority of notorious invaders, hindering scientific understanding, biosecurity planning and practice, and management implementation of biological invasions. We used Mikania micrantha, one of the world's worst invasive alien species (IAS), to test the hypothesis that multiple invasion trajectories could induce niche dynamics inconsistency and increase risk uncertainty of IAS. We compiled a robust database of M. micrantha occurrence across its native range in Central and South America and invaded range in China. This database was used to clarify different invaded ranges and invasion trajectories of M. micrantha in China. Principal components analysis of climatic variables associated with the database was used to explore the niche dynamic patterns associated with multiple invasion trajectories of M. micrantha. Maximum entropy algorithm was used to predict the high‐risk area of M. micrantha invasion using occurrence datasets for invaded ranges where niches remained conservative, and to detect area changes with the inclusion of occurrence datasets for invaded ranges where niche shifts occurred. M. micrantha invasion occurred in three geographically distinct regions, with conservative climate niches in southern and southeastern China and climatic niche shifts in southwestern China. A high‐risk area for M. micrantha invasion spanned multiple provinces and cities and expanded considerably with the inclusion of the occurrence dataset for southwestern China. Our findings contribute to the theoretical understanding of invasion mechanisms and the practical optimization of biosecurity planning and implementation.

Niche and Range Shifts of the Fall Webworm (Hyphantria cunea Dury) in Europe Imply Its Huge Invasion Potential in the Future.

The fall webworm (Hyphantria cunea Dury) has a strong impact on agricultural systems in Europe. However, its invasive potential, which was inherited from its native niche in North America, remains unknown. Here, we investigated the climatic niche and range shifts of the fall webworm in Europe and compared them with those in native North America, then assessed the worms' invasive potential in Europe. Compared with the fall webworm in Europe, those in North America survived in more diverse climatic conditions, which was closely associated with their broader niche and larger potential ranges in Europe. If the fall webworm in Europe could exploit the native niche inherited from those in North America to adapt to climatic conditions in Europe, their potential ranges in Europe could be 5.5-fold those based on the niche as introduced in Europe. The potentially unfilled ranges of the fall webworm in Europe were mainly detected in vast regions of Europe, excluding Norway, Sweden, Finland, North Russia, Hungary, Croatia, Romania, and Ukraine, suggesting that, without strict control, these vast regions might be preferably invaded by the fall webworm in Europe in the future. Therefore, strict control against its invasion is needed. Given that small niche shifts in this invasive insect could result in large range shifts, the niche shifts represent a more sensitive indicator of invasion risk than range shifts.

Climatic niche shift and distribution of Melanagromyza sojae under current and future climate scenarios: does this species pose a risk to soybean production?

AbstractThe soybean stem fly, Melanagromyza sojae (Zehntner) (Diptera: Agromyzidae), is an example of an insect pest with a restricted distribution that in the last few decades has been spreading to regions beyond its native range and causing economic losses. We evaluated whether M. sojae shifted its niche during biological invasion and used ecological niche models to estimate its global distribution under current and future climate conditions. In addition, we assessed whether the soybean stem fly represents a risk for major soybean‐producing countries, using Brazil as an example. Our analyses suggest that M. sojae has expanded its niche to new environments. Suitable habitats were predicted in all continents, including regions where this species has not yet been reported. Several soybean‐producing countries and all Brazilian growing areas are within the suitable ranges estimated for M. sojae. Also, most areas estimated as suitable under current climate conditions will remain so until at least 2080. These findings are important for invasion risk assessments aiming to prevent the spread of this species to major soybean‐producing areas.

The role of climate change and niche shifts in divergent range dynamics of a sister-species pair.

Species ranges are set by limitations in factors including climate tolerances, habitat use, and dispersal abilities. Understanding the factors governing species range dynamics remains a challenge that is ever more important in our rapidly changing world. Species ranges can shift if environmental changes affect available habitat, or if the niche or habitat connectivity of a species changes. We tested how changes in habitat availability, niche, or habitat connectivity could contribute to divergent range dynamics in a sister-species pair. The great-tailed grackle (Quiscalus mexicanus) has expanded its range northward from Texas to Nebraska in the past 40 years, while its closest relative, the boattailed grackle (Quiscalus major), has remained tied to the coasts of the Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico as well as the interior of Florida. We created species distribution and connectivity models trained on citizen science data from 1970-1979 and 2010-2019 to determine how the availability of habitat, the types of habitat occupied, and range-wide connectivity have changed for both species. We found that the two species occupy distinct habitats and that the great-tailed grackle has shifted to occupy a larger breadth of urban, arid environments farther from natural water sources. Meanwhile, the boattailed grackle has remained limited to warm, wet, coastal environments. We found no evidence that changes in habitat connectivity affected the ranges of either species. Overall, our results suggest that the great-tailed grackle has shifted its realized niche as part of its rapid range expansion, while the range dynamics of the boat-tailed grackle may be shaped more by climate change. The expansion in habitats occupied by the great-tailed grackle is consistent with observations that species with high behavioral flexibility can rapidly expand their geographic range by using human-altered habitat. This investigation identifies how opposite responses to anthropogenic change could drive divergent range dynamics, elucidating the factors that have and will continue to shape species ranges.

Drivers of range expansion in a pair of sister grackle species

A recommendation of: Jeremy Summers, Dieter Lukas, Corina J. Logan, Nancy Chen The role of climate change and niche shifts in divergent range dynamics of a sister-species pair https://doi.org/10.32942/osf.io/879pe

Predicting the impact of future climate changes and range-shifts of Indian hornbills (family: Bucerotidae)

Climate change influences species distribution and is regarded as a major threat to biodiversity. Hornbills (Family: Bucerotidae) are large tropical birds in Asia and Africa. They are seed dispersers known as forest farmers because they help maintain the ecological community structure by allowing forest regeneration. They are keystone species, and their presence in a forest implies a healthy ecosystem. Range shifts due to climate change is a serious threat because their long-term survival is already imperilled by anthropogenic disturbances. This study models the current and future potential climatic niches of eight of the nine hornbill species present in India. We used GBIF-mediated species presence records along with eight WorldClim V2.1 bioclimatic variables to model the current climatically suitable areas and projected it into the future (mid-century, i.e., 2041–60 and end of the century, i.e., 2081–2100) for different CMIP6 based Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSPs) (i.e., SSP126, SSP245, 370 and 585). Range shifts, centroid changes, and the impact of current land use practices for each of the eight species under various climatic conditions were also examined. The Area Under Curve (AUC) values for final models ranged between 0.736 and 0.994. Result indicates that majority of species' climatic niche shift is towards the west, followed by northwest and northern shifts. The species are expected to lose >40% of their suitable present climatic niche under the SSP 585 scenario in 2081–2100. Natural areas were found to be climatically suitable for hornbills throughout the study area, implying the merit of conserving their existing habitats. Our research provides detailed information on how the distribution of Indian Hornbills may change because of future climatic conditions. Detailed spatial and temporal distribution and range shift patterns will aid in a targeted approach for conserving hornbills and their habitat in a changing climate.

Introduction history and hybridization determine the hydric balance of an invasive lizard facing a recent climate niche shift.

As anthropogenic activities are increasing the frequency and severity of droughts, understanding whether and how fast populations can adapt to sudden changes in their hydric environment is critically important. Here, we capitalize on the introduction of the Cuban brown anole lizard (Anolis sagrei) in North America to assess the contemporary evolution of a widespread terrestrial vertebrate to an abrupt climatic niche shift. We characterized hydric balance in 30 populations along a large climatic gradient. We found that while evaporative and cutaneous water loss varied widely, there was no climatic cline, as would be expected under adaptation. Furthermore, the skin of lizards from more arid environments was covered with smaller scales, a condition thought to limit water conservation and thus be maladaptive. In contrast to environmental conditions, genome-averaged ancestry was a significant predictor of water loss. This was reinforced by our genome-wide association analyses, which indicated a significant ancestry-specific effect for water loss at one locus. Thus, our study indicates that the water balance of invasive brown anoles is dictated by an environment-independent introduction and hybridization history and highlights genetic interactions or genetic correlations as factors that might forestall adaptation. Alternative water conservation strategies, including behavioral mitigation, may influence the brown anole invasion success and require future examination.