Climatic niche shift and distribution of Melanagromyza sojae under current and future climate scenarios: does this species pose a risk to soybean production?

Abstract

AbstractThe soybean stem fly, Melanagromyza sojae (Zehntner) (Diptera: Agromyzidae), is an example of an insect pest with a restricted distribution that in the last few decades has been spreading to regions beyond its native range and causing economic losses. We evaluated whether M. sojae shifted its niche during biological invasion and used ecological niche models to estimate its global distribution under current and future climate conditions. In addition, we assessed whether the soybean stem fly represents a risk for major soybean‐producing countries, using Brazil as an example. Our analyses suggest that M. sojae has expanded its niche to new environments. Suitable habitats were predicted in all continents, including regions where this species has not yet been reported. Several soybean‐producing countries and all Brazilian growing areas are within the suitable ranges estimated for M. sojae. Also, most areas estimated as suitable under current climate conditions will remain so until at least 2080. These findings are important for invasion risk assessments aiming to prevent the spread of this species to major soybean‐producing areas.