Climatic Niche Dynamics Research Articles

Unveiling climatic niches for deeper insights into invasion potential and enhanced distribution models of freshwater fishes

AbstractIntroduced species may exhibit variations in their preferred climatic niches between their native and introduced ranges, which can have important implications for the transferability of distribution models. In the Himalayan ecoregion, little is known about the geographic distribution and climatic niche overlap between native and introduced cold‐water species. Here, we used the COUE (centroid shift, overlap, unfilling, and expansion) framework to explore the invasive potential of rainbow (Oncorhynchus mykiss) and brown (Salmo trutta fario) trout and corresponding climatic niche overlap with native snow trout (Schizothorax plagiostomus and Schizothorax richardsonii) in the Indus and Ganges River basins. Although we found more stability in the climatic niche for O. mykiss (93%) than S. trutta (58%), both species do not conserve their climatic niches in this region (p > 0.05). S. trutta has expanded more toward new environmental conditions (42%) compared to O. mykiss (7%). However, there are still available environmental gaps that O. mykiss and S. trutta can potentially occupy in the future. There was a higher overlap in climatic niches between S. plagiostomus and O. mykiss and between S. richardsonii and S. trutta. Observed shifts in climatic niches of these introduced species can negatively affect the transferability of distribution models, which may underestimate the assessments of habitat suitability for introduced trout in the Himalayas. Our study demonstrates that the information on climatic niche dynamics can inform the model‐building process and improve the transferability and predictive performance to better assess vulnerability of sensitive habitats to introduced species in the Himalayas and elsewhere.

Global spatial distribution of Prosopis juliflora -one of the world's worst 100 invasive alien species under changing climate using multiple machine learning models.

Climate change is one of the factors contributing to the spread of invasive alien species. As a result, it is critical to investigate potential invasion dynamics on a global scale in the face of climate change. We used updated occurrence data, bioclimatic variables, and Köppen-Geiger climatic zones to better understand the climatic niche dynamics of Prosopis juliflora L. (Fabaceae). In this study, we first compared several algorithms-MaxEnt, generalized linear model (GLM), artificial neural network (ANN), generalized boosted model (GBM), generalized additive model (GAM), and random forest (RF)-to investigate the relationships between species-environment and climate for mesquite. We identified the global climate niche similarity sites (NSSs) using the coalesce approach. This study focused on the current and future climatic suitability of P. juliflora under two global circulation models (GCMs) and two climatic scenarios, i.e., Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), 4.5 and 8.5, for 2050 and 2070, respectively. Sensitivity, specificity, true skill statistic (TSS), kappa coefficient, and correlation were used to evaluate model performance. Among the tested models, the machine learning algorithm random forest (RF) demonstrated the highest accuracy. The vast swaths of currently uninvaded land on multiple continents are ideal habitats for invasion. Approximately 9.65% of the area is highly suitable for the establishment of P. juliflora. Consequently, certain regions in the Americas, Africa, Asia, Europe, and Oceania have become particularly vulnerable to invasion. In relation to RCPs, we identified suitable area changes (expansion, loss, and stability). The findings of this study show that NSSs and RCPs increase the risk of invasion in specific parts of the world. Our findings contribute to a cross-border continental conservation effort to combat P. juliflora expansion into new potential invasion areas.

Climatic Niche Dynamics of the Astereae Lineage and Haplopappus Species Distribution following Amphitropical Long-Distance Dispersal.

The tribe Astereae (Asteraceae) displays an American Amphitropical Disjunction. To understand the eco-evolutionary dynamics associated with a long-distance dispersal event and subsequent colonization of extratropical South America, we compared the climatic and geographic distributions of South American species with their closest North American relatives, focusing on the diverse South American Astereae genus, Haplopappus. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that two South American genera are closely related to seven North American genera. The climatic niche overlap (D = 0.5) between South and North America exhibits high stability (0.89), low expansion (0.12), and very low unfilling (0.04). The distribution of the North American species predicted the climatic and geographic space occupied by the South American species. In central Chile, Haplopappus showed a non-random latitudinal gradient in species richness, with Mediterranean climate variables mainly explaining the variation. Altitudinal patterns indicated peak richness at 600 m, declining at lower and higher elevations. These findings support climatic niche conservatism in shaping Haplopappus species distribution and diversity. Two major endemism zones were identified in central Chile and the southern region, with a transitional zone between Mediterranean and Temperate macro-bioclimates. Our results indicate strong niche conservatism following long-distance dispersal and slight niche expansion due to unique climatic variables in each hemisphere.

Patterns and drivers of climatic niche dynamics during biological invasions of island-endemic amphibians, reptiles, and birds.

Shifts between native and alien climatic niches pose a major challenge for predicting biological invasions. This is particularly true for insular species because geophysical barriers could constrain the realization of their fundamental niches, which may lead to underestimates of their invasion potential. To investigate this idea, we estimated the frequency of shifts between native and alien climatic niches and the magnitude of climatic mismatches using 80,148 alien occurrences of 46 endemic insular amphibian, reptile, and bird species. Then, we assessed the influence of nine potential predictors on climatic mismatches across taxa, based on species' characteristics, native range physical characteristics, and alien range properties. We found that climatic mismatch is common during invasions of endemic insular birds and reptiles: 78.3% and 55.1% of their respective alien records occurred outside of the environmental space of species' native climatic niche. In comparison, climatic mismatch was evident for only 16.2% of the amphibian invasions analyzed. Several predictors significantly explained climatic mismatch, and these varied among taxonomic groups. For amphibians, only native range size was associated with climatic mismatch. For reptiles, the magnitude of climatic mismatch was higher for species with narrow native altitudinal ranges, occurring in topographically complex or less remote islands, as well as for species with larger distances between their native and alien ranges. For birds, climatic mismatch was significantly larger for invasions on continents with higher phylogenetic diversity of the recipient community, and when the invader was more evolutionarily distinct. Our findings highlight that apparently common niche shifts of insular species may jeopardize our ability to forecast their potential invasions using correlative methods based on climatic variables. Also, we show which factors provide additional insights on the actual invasion potential of insular endemic amphibians, reptiles, and birds.

Climatic niche dynamics in the invasive nutria, Myocastor coypus: global assessment under climate change

Climatic niche dynamics in the invasive nutria, Myocastor coypus: global assessment under climate change

Climatic Niche of Vegetation Greenness Is Likely to Be Conservative in Degraded Land

Satellite data have been widely used to study changes in vegetation greenness in geographical space; however, this change is rarely considered in climatic space. Here, the climatic niche dynamics of vegetation greenness, represented by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), was quantified in the climate space of the Loess Plateau, a piece of degraded land greening significantly from 2000 to 2018. The niche similarity test was used to examine the niche conservatism of vegetation greenness during the 19 years of restoration. The results show that the climate niche of vegetation greenness is always more similar than expected. The stability niche occupied most parts (83–98%) of their climatic niche, and niche overlap reached 0.52–0.69. Climate niche conservatism suggests that potential greenness constructed by statistical methods could be used as a criterion or baseline for ecosystem function restoration on the Loess Plateau. The study also suggests that the integrated niche similarity test in decision-making for restoration of degraded land will clarify our understanding of the climatic niche dynamics of vegetation greenness and the making of forecasts.

Spatio-temporal pattern of cross-continental invasion: Evidence of climatic niche shift and predicted range expansion provide management insights for smooth cordgrass

Introduction and spread of the halophyte Spartina alterniflora is one of the largest continental-scale biological invasion events in Asia and the Americas. Rapid globalization and broad environmental tolerance of the species increase the chance of novel invasions. Thus, we aimed to identify susceptible regions to inform prevention and control activities.A comprehensive global occurrence dataset and corresponding bioclimatic variables were used to characterize the species' climatic niche and predict current and future potential distributions. Conservatism of climatic niche between native and non-native ranges was tested, and climatic niche dynamics were analysed at spatial and temporal scales. The ensemble of eight species distribution models and eight climate change models was used to map the potential distribution of S. alterniflora under current and future climate conditions. We investigated the susceptibility of threatened ecosystems like mangroves and protected areas to S. alterniflora invasion to better inform management decisions.Our study revealed wide climatic tolerance and significant niche expansion of the species from humid regions of its native range to dry and arid environments of its non-native range with a very short lag period. With a marginal increase in temperature and precipitation in the future, range expansion was predicted towards higher latitude and more inland areas. The mangroves area, salt marshes, and protected areas that are at risk of ongoing and future invasions were identified. Given the invasion potential of S. alterniflora, the areas identified as climatically susceptible for the species’ establishment, both in current and future climates, should be prioritized for management actions.

Seasonal droughts during the Miocene drove the evolution of Capparaceae towards Neotropical seasonally dry forests

Introduction: Neotropical seasonally dry forest (NSDF) climatic constraintsincreased endemism, and phylogenetic niche conservatism in species that are restricted to thisbiome. NSDF have a large number of endemic Capparaceae taxa, but it is unknown ifphylogenetic niche conservatism has played a role in this pattern. Objective: We carried out anevolutionary analysis of the climatic niche of neotropical species of Capparaceae to identifywhether the climatic constraints of NSDF have played a major role throughout the family’sevolutionary history. Methods: Using three chloroplastic (ndhF, matK, rbcL) and one ribosomal(rsp3) DNA sequences, we proposed a date phylogeny to reconstruct the evolutionary climaticniche dynamics of 24 Neotropical species of Capparaceae. We tested the relationship betweenniche dissimilarity and phylogenetic distance between species using the Mantel test. Likewise,we used a set of phylogenetic comparative methods (PGLS) on the phylogeny of Capparaceae toreconstruct the main evolutionary historic events in their niche. Results: Capparaceae originatedin humid regions and subsequently, convergent evolution occurred towards humid and dry forestduring the aridification phases of the Middle Miocene (16-11 Mya). However, adaptationtowards drought stress was reflected only during the precipitation of the coldest quarter, wherewe found phylogenetic signal (Pagel ) for gradual evolution and, therefore, evidence ofphylogenetic niche conservatism. We found convergent species-specific adaptations to bothdrought stress and rainfall during the Miocene, suggesting a non-phylogenetic structure in mostclimatic variables. Conclusions: Our study shows how the Miocene climate may haveinfluenced the Capparaceae speciation toward driest environments. Further, highlights thecomplexity of climatic niche dynamics in this family, and therefore more detailed analyses arenecessary in order to better understand the NSDF climatic constrictions affected the evolution ofCapparaceae.

Climatic Niche Dynamics and Its Role in the Insular Endemism of Anolis Lizards

Insular systems are usually characterized by have a high species diversity, endemism, and evolutionary uniqueness. Although ecological and evolutionary factors shaping insular diversity and endemism are relatively well established, there is a little understanding about climatic niche dynamics for many insular adaptive radiations. Here, we evaluate the tempo and mode of climatic niche evolution in an iconic insular radiation of lizards. By using an extensive dataset of phylogenetic and coarse-grain climatic niches, we evaluated phylogenetic niche divergence and niche conservatism across temporal and spatial scales in the Caribbean Anolis lizard radiation. We found several instances of niche shifts during the anole radiation across islands. Many of these niche shifts converged to similar climatic regimes between different islands. Furthermore, we find evidence that single-island endemic species are more limited by low suitability of climatic conditions outside its native islands than oceanic barriers due to the high climatic heterogeneity observed at least between Greater Antillean islands. These results suggest that within-lineage climatic niche conservatism has been prevalent in short time scales and likely played a role driving the exceptional insular endemism observed today.

Afforestation and climatic niche dynamics of black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia)

Abstract Many tree species have been introduced outside their native ranges, but there is little knowledge of their niche dynamics during afforestation in different regions. Here, we test the climatic niche dynamics of a species, black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia), planted worldwide, between its native range (southeastern parts of United States) and four introduced ranges (North America, Europe, East Asia, and Australia). A principal component analysis method with kernel smoothers was applied to species’ occurrence densities to investigate the climatic niche centroid, breadth and unfilling/expansion between native and introduced ranges of black locust. The niche equivalency test, the niche similarity test, and the niche centroid/breadth shift tests were used to evaluate the conservatism and dynamics of realized niche of black locust. Niche equivalency/similarity tests show that only the European population has the same identical climatic niche as the native population and all introduced population in four areas are similar to native population than expected by chance with niche overlap between native and introduced areas ranging from 0.13 to 0.4. Niche centroid/breadth shift tests reveal that the niche centroid of black locust will significantly shift to warm or colder areas, as well as drier areas, and the niche breadth of black locust will significantly broaden both in water and heat gradients in the four introduced ranges separately. Niche partitioning shows that the proportion of niche unfilling occurred from 0 to 27% and that of niche expansion occurred in the 42–83% range. Our results imply that the internal causes of realized niche dynamics of black locust are mainly due to the release of biotic constraints and change in dispersal capability, but the relative importance of these factors is different among the four introduced ranges. Our study suggests that black locust conserves its climatic niche in the afforestation process allowing future studies to use ecological niche models to predict areas with suitable habitat for introduction and cultivation around the world and respond to climate change needs.

Unravelling the climatic niche overlap of global sea turtle nesting sites: Impact of geographical variation and phylogeny

AbstractAimIdentifying processes that determine climatic niche dynamics is difficult, especially for wide‐ranging species where niche conservatism might differ at different life stages. Evolutionary history shapes climatic niche, with populations of the same or phylogenetically close species occupying similar conditions. However, the geographical separation of populations also leads to niche evolution as an adaptive response to local conditions. Here, we use five sea turtle species (loggerhead, green, leatherback, hawksbill, olive ridley) to test whether short‐ (environmental adaptation) or long‐term (phylogenetic separation) evolutionary events determined the level of niche conservatism among distinct groups of nesting populations (termed Regional Management Units; RMUs) distributed across different ocean basins.LocationGlobal.MethodsWe estimated the climatic niche of 4,829 georeferenced nesting locations using air and sea surface parameters. We quantified niche overlap among RMUs of the same species at a global scale and examined how the geographical ranges of each RMU are correlated with niche similarity. We also investigated the extent of niche conservatism among RMUs of different species in the same ocean basin.ResultsWe found limited within‐species niche similarity of RMUs at a global scale, with geographical range having negligible impact (latitudinal overlap, range size asymmetries). We detected generally higher niche overlap between RMUs of different species located within the same ocean basin, where the geographical range had a stronger effect on niche similarity.Main conclusionsWe show that adaptation to local conditions potentially prevails over distant evolutionary events when considering the climatic niche of RMUs of the same species across different oceans. Because sea turtles, like other long‐distance migratory animals, occupy distinct climatic niches, our findings support the importance of understanding this phenomenon for different life stages, populations and species to preserve unique adaptations to different environments that might enhance future viability under climate change, as well as help identify key conservation areas.

Niche dynamics of two cryptic Prosopis invading South American drylands

Whether or not species track native climatic conditions during invasions (i.e., climate match hypothesis) is fundamental to understand and prevent potential impacts of invasive species. Recent empirical work suggests that climatic mismatches between native and invasive ranges are pervasive. Whether these differences are due to adaptation to new climatic spaces in the invasive range or due to partial filling of the potential climatic space are still subject to debate. Here, we analyze climatic niche dynamics associated with the invasion of the two most common invasive plants in Brazilian semi-arid areas, Prosopis juliflora and Prosopis pallida. These species have been simultaneously introduced in the region, which creates a unique opportunity to compare their niche dynamics during invasion. Given that P. juliflora have a much wider native range size, we expect these species would present different dispersal potentials, which might translate into different unfilling levels. Using an ordination method with kernel smoother and null models, we contrasted climate spaces occupied by each species in both native and invasive ranges. We further used ecological niche models (ENMs) to compare reciprocal predictions of potentially suitable areas. Against our expectation based on differences in native range sizes, climatic niches of P. juliflora and P. pallida overlapped greatly, both in their native and invasive ranges. Our results support niche conservatism during the invasion process. Climatic mismatches among native and invaded ranges were exclusively attributed to unfilling of native climates in the invasive range. Both species showed similar unfilling levels. Likewise, ENMs predicted regions not yet occupied in the invasive range, revealing a potential for further expansion. We discuss colonization time lag and founder effect as potential mechanisms that may have prevented these species to fully occupy their native niches in the invasive range.

The evolution of climatic niches in squamate reptiles

Despite the remarkable diversity found in squamate reptiles, most of their species tend to be found in warm/dry environments, suggesting that climatic requirements played a crucial role in their diversification, yet little is known about the evolution of their climatic niches. In this study, we integrate climatic information associated with the geographical distribution of 1882 squamate species and their phylogenetic relationships to investigate the tempo and mode of climatic niche evolution in squamates, both over time and among lineages. We found that changes in climatic niche dynamics were pronounced over their recent squamate evolutionary history, and we identified extensive evidence for rate heterogeneity in squamate climatic niche evolution. Most rate shifts involved accelerations, particularly over the past 50 Myr. Most squamates occupy similar regions of the climatic niche space, with only a few lineages diversifying into colder and humid climatic conditions. The changes from arid to mesic conditions in some regions of the globe may have provided opportunities for climatic niche evolution, although most lineages tended to remain near their ancestral niche. Variation in rates of climatic niche evolution seems common, particularly in response to the availability of new climatic conditions over evolutionary time.

Niche-tracking migrants and niche-switching residents: evolution of climatic niches in New World warblers (Parulidae).

Differences in life-history traits between tropical and temperate lineages are often attributed to differences in their climatic niche dynamics. For example, the more frequent appearance of migratory behaviour in temperate-breeding species than in species originally breeding in the tropics is believed to have resulted partly from tropical climatic stability and niche conservatism constraining tropical species from shifting their ranges. However, little is known about the patterns and processes underlying climatic niche evolution in migrant and resident animals. We evaluated the evolution of overlap in climatic niches between seasons and its relationship to migratory behaviour in the Parulidae, a family of New World passerine birds. We used ordination methods to measure seasonal niche overlap and niche breadth of 54 resident and 49 migrant species and used phylogenetic comparative methods to assess patterns of climatic niche evolution. We found that despite travelling thousands of kilometres, migrants tracked climatic conditions across the year to a greater extent than tropical residents. Migrant species had wider niches than resident species, although residents as a group occupied a wider climatic space and niches of migrants and residents overlapped extensively. Neither breeding latitude nor migratory distance explained variation among species in climatic niche overlap between seasons. Our findings support the notion that tropical species have narrower niches than temperate-breeders, but does not necessarily constrain their ability to shift or expand their geographical ranges and become migratory. Overall, the tropics may have been historically less likely to experience the suite of components that generate strong selection pressures for the evolution of migratory behaviour.

Climatic niche attributes and diversification inAnolislizards

AbstractAimThe aim of this study was to test the link between climatic niche dynamics and species diversification inAnolison islands and on the mainland. We tested the hypotheses that lineages in warmer climates and with narrow climate niches diversified more than lineages in cold climates and with broad climate niches. We also tested the hypothesis that species‐rich clades exhibit greater niche diversity than species‐poor clades.LocationNeotropics.MethodsWe collated occurrence records for 328Anolisspecies to estimate niche breadth, niche position and occupied niche space (as a proxy for niche diversity). We compared niche breadth between insular and mainlandAnolisspecies and amongAnolisclades, controlling for the potential confounding effect of range size. Using two approaches (clade‐based and QuaSSE) we explored the association between niche metrics and diversification rates inAnolislizards.ResultsWe found that CaribbeanAnolishad a narrower niche breadth and niche space occupation compared to mainland anoles after controlling for range size differences. There was a significant association between niche traits (mean niche position and niche breadth) and diversification in anoles. Anole lineages with narrow niche breadths and that occupy warmer areas exhibited higher speciation rates than those with broader niche breadths and that occupy cold areas. Similarly, clades with higher total diversification exhibit more niche diversity than clades with lower total diversification.Main conclusionsClimatic niche attributes play a role in anole diversification with some differences between mainland and insular anole lineages. Climatic niche differences between regions and clades likely are related to differences in niche evolutionary rates. This also suggests that climate plays a strong role in shaping species richness between and within mainland and islands.

Climatic niche conservatism and biogeographical non-equilibrium in Eschscholzia californica (Papaveraceae), an invasive plant in the Chilean Mediterranean region.

Species climate requirements are useful for predicting their geographic distribution. It is often assumed that the niche requirements for invasive plants are conserved during invasion, especially when the invaded regions share similar climate conditions. California and central Chile have a remarkable degree of convergence in their vegetation structure, and a similar Mediterranean climate. Such similarities make these geographic areas an interesting natural experiment for testing climatic niche dynamics and the equilibrium of invasive species in a new environment. We tested to see if the climatic niche of Eschscholzia californica is conserved in the invaded range (central Chile), and we assessed whether the invasion process has reached a biogeographical equilibrium, i.e., occupy all the suitable geographic locations that have suitable conditions under native niche requirements. We compared the climatic niche in the native and invaded ranges as well as the projected potential geographic distribution in the invaded range. In order to compare climatic niches, we conducted a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Species Distribution Models (SDMs), to estimate E. californica's potential geographic distribution. We also used SDMs to predict altitudinal distribution limits in central Chile. Our results indicated that the climatic niche occupied by E. californica in the invaded range is firmly conserved, occupying a subset of the native climatic niche but leaving a substantial fraction of it unfilled. Comparisons of projected SDMs for central Chile indicate a similarity, yet the projection from native range predicted a larger geographic distribution in central Chile compared to the prediction of the model constructed for central Chile. The projected niche occupancy profile from California predicted a higher mean elevation than that projected from central Chile. We concluded that the invasion process of E. californica in central Chile is consistent with climatic niche conservatism but there is potential for further expansion in Chile.

Residence time, expansion toward the equator in the invaded range and native range size matter to climatic niche shifts in non‐native species

AbstractAimIdentifying climatic niche shifts and their drivers is important for the accurate prediction of the risk of biological invasions. The niches of non‐native plants and birds have recently been assessed in large‐scale multispecies studies, but such large‐scale tests are lacking for non‐native reptiles and amphibians (herpetofauna). Furthermore, little is known about the factors that contribute to niche shifts when they occur. Based on the occurrence of 71 reptile and amphibian species, we compared native and non‐native realized niches in 101 invaded ranges at a global scale and identified the factors that affect niche shifts.LocationGlobal except the Antarctic.MethodsWe assessed climatic niche dynamics in a gridded environmental space that allowed niche overlap and expansion into climatic conditions not colonized by the species in their native range to be quantified. We analysed the factors that affect niche shifts using a model‐averaging approach, based on generalized linear mixed‐effects models.ResultsApproximately 57% of the invaded ranges (amphibians, 51%; reptiles, 61%) showed niche shifts (≥ 10% expansion in the realized climatic niche). Island endemics, species introduced to Oceania and invaded ranges outside the native biogeographical realm all showed a higher proportion of niche shifts. Niche shifts were more likely for species that had smaller native range sizes, were introduced earlier into a new range or invaded areas located at lower latitudes than the native range.Main conclusions The proportion of niche shifts for non‐native herpetofauna was higher than those for Holarctic non‐native plants and European non‐native birds. The ‘climate‐matching hypothesis’ should be used with caution for species undergoing niche shifts, because it could underestimate the risk of their establishment.

Contrasting spatio‐temporal climatic niche dynamics during the eastern and western invasions of spotted knapweed in North America

AbstractAimThe spotted knapweed (Centaurea stoebe), a plant native to south‐east and central Europe, is highly invasive in North America. We investigated the spatio‐temporal climatic niche dynamics of the spotted knapweed in North America along two putative eastern and western invasion routes. We then considered the patterns observed in the light of historical, ecological and evolutionary factors.LocationEurope and North America.MethodsThe niche characteristics of the east and west invasive populations of spotted knapweed in North America were determined from documented occurrences over 120 consecutive years (1890–2010). For this investigation, the 2.5 and 97.5 percentiles of values along temperature and precipitation gradients, as given by the two first axes of a principal components analysis (PCA), were calculated. We additionally measured the climatic dissimilarity between invaded sites and the native niche using a multivariate environmental similarity surface (MESS) analysis.ResultsAlong both invasion routes, the species established in regions with climatic conditions that were similar to those in the native niche. An initial spread in ruderal habitats always preceded spread in (semi‐)natural habitats. In the east, the niche gradually increased over time until it reached limits similar to the native niche. Conversely, in the west the niche abruptly expanded after an extended time lag into climates not occupied in the native range; only the native cold niche limit was conserved.Main conclusionsOur study reveals that different niche dynamics have taken place during the eastern and western invasions. This pattern indicates different combinations of historical, ecological and evolutionary factors in the two ranges. We hypothesize that the lack of a well‐developed transportation network in the west at the time of the introduction of spotted knapweed confined the species to a geographically and climatically isolated region. The invasion of dry rangelands may have been favoured during the agricultural transition in the 1930s by release from natural enemies, local adaptation and less competitive vegetation, but further experimental and molecular studies are needed to explain these contrasting niche patterns fully. Our study illustrates the need and benefit of applying large‐scale, temporally explicit approaches to understanding biological invasions.

Niche evolution through time and across continents: The story of Neotropical Cedrela (Meliaceae)

Climatic and geological changes have been considered as major drivers of biological diversification. However, it has been generally assumed that lineages retain common environmental affinities, suggesting a limited capacity to switch their climatic niche. We tested this assumption with a study of the evolution of climatic niches in the Neotropical tree genus Cedrela (Meliaceae). • We combined distribution models of extant Cedrela with a dated molecular phylogeny based on one nuclear (ITS) and three plastid markers (psbA-trnH, trnS-G and psbB-T-N) to reconstruct the evolutionary dynamics of climatic niches. We calculated relative disparity of climatic tolerances over time to test for niche evolution within subclades or divergence between subclades and conservatism among closely related groups. Published fossil records and studies on paleosols were evaluated for the distribution and climatic conditions of extinct Cedrela. • The fossil record of Cedrela suggested a major biome shift from paratropical conditions into warm-temperate seasonal climates in the Early Oligocene of western North America. In the Miocene, Cedrela extended from North America (John Day Formation, Oregon, USA) to southern Central America (Gatún, Panama). Diversification in the early evolutionary history was mainly driven by changes in precipitation. Temperature had an increasing impact on ecological diversification of the genus from the Miocene onwards. Sister-species comparisons revealed that recent speciation events may be related to divergence of climatic tolerances. • Our study highlights the complexity of climatic niche dynamics, and shows how conservatism and evolution have acted on different temporal scales and climatic parameters in Cedrela.