Climate Forcing Research Articles

The curious case of a strong relationship between ENSO and Indian summer monsoon in CFSv2 model

An ensemble of forecasts is necessary to identify the uncertainty in predicting a non-linear system like climate. While ensemble averages are often used to represent the mean state and diagnose physical mechanisms, they can lead to information loss and inaccurate assessment of the model’s characteristics. Here, we highlight an intriguing case in the seasonal hindcasts of the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2). While all ensemble members often agree on the sign of predicted El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) for a particular season, non-ENSO climate forcings, although present in some of the individual members, are disparate. As a result, an ensemble mean retains ENSO anomalies while diminishing non-ENSO signals. This difference between ENSO and non-ENSO signals significantly influences moisture convergence and Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). This stronger influence of ENSO on seasonal predictions increases ENSO-ISMR correlation in ensemble mean seasonal hindcasts. Thus, this discrepancy in the ENSO-ISMR relationship is not present in the individual ensemble members, considered individually or together (without averaging) as independent realizations. Therefore, adequate care should be taken while evaluating physical mechanisms of teleconnection in ensemble mean predictions that can often be skewed due to constructive or destructive superposition of different impacts.

Tracing human influence on rising surface air temperature in Venezuela.

The rise in surface air temperature (SAT) in Venezuela, leading to the loss of all its glaciers, underscores the urgency of understanding human contributions to this phenomenon. This study investigates the impact of anthropogenic climate forcings on SAT across Venezuela, employing observational data, multi-model simulations, and optimal fingerprinting method. Anthropogenic forcings have driven a 0.40-0.85 C SAT rise during the industrial era, with land use (LU) emerging as a significant driver (0.36-0.68 C), surpassing greenhouse gases (GHGs) (0.10-0.62 C). Conversely, anthropogenic aerosols (Aaer) exhibit a cooling effect (- 0.93 to - 0.25 C) on SAT. Projections under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 indicate substantial SAT increases by the 21st century's end, underscoring human-induced SAT rise. Effective management of regional Aaer and LU changes in Venezuela holds the potential for mitigating current and future warming and its subsequent impacts on the fragile ecosystem of this region.

Terrestrial Photogrammetry–GIS Methodology for Measuring Rill Erosion at the Sparacia Experimental Area, Sicily

Rill erosion is a major issue on a global scale, and predicting the presence, position, and development of erosive forms on hillslopes is a significant challenge for the scientific community. Several plot-scale investigations confirmed the reliability of the terrestrial photogrammetric (TP) technique for studying rill erosion and the reliability of a method for extracting the rill network from Digital Surface Models (DSMs) and measuring the corresponding volume. In this paper, for an intense erosive event that occurred at the Sparacia experimental area (Sicily, Southern Italy), TP surveys of three plots, with different length and steepness, incised by rills, were performed to reconstruct the DSMs. For each plot, the rill network was extracted from the DSMs, and the non-contributing network was distinguished from the contributing one, from which the soil loss and the consequent eroded volumes V were determined. The specific aims were to (i) establish the effect of plot steepness on rill depths and some morphometric characteristics of the drainage rill network; (ii) test and calibrate the relationship between V and the total rill length L, using all rill measurements available in the literature and those obtained in this study; and (iii) modify the V–L relationship by including climate forcing and assessing the related performance. The rill depths, h, the drainage frequency, and drainage density of the rill networks detected in the three plots were compared. The analysis demonstrated that h and the morphometric parameters of the contributing rill network increase with plot steepness s. In particular, the mean depth increases from 2.79 to 4.85 cm for slope increasing from 14.9 to 26%. Moreover, the drainage frequency of the contributing rill network varies from 0.16 m−2 for s = 14.9% to 0.47 m−2 for s = 26%, while the drainage density of the contributing rill network varies from 0.92 m−1 for s = 14.9% to 2.1 m−1 for s = 26%. Finally, using the data available in the literature and those obtained in this investigation, an empirical relationship between V and the total rill length L was firstly tested and then rearranged considering the event rainfall erosivity Re. Including Re in the rearranged equation guaranteed the best performance in V estimation.

The comparative role of physical system processes in Hudson Strait ice stream cycling: a comprehensive model-based test of Heinrich event hypotheses

Abstract. Despite their recognized significance on global climate and extensive research efforts, the mechanism(s) driving Heinrich events remain(s) a subject of debate. Here, we use the 3D thermomechanically coupled glacial systems model (GSM) to examine the Hudson Strait ice stream surge cycling and the role of three factors previously hypothesized to play a critical role in Heinrich events: ice shelves, glacial isostatic adjustment, and sub-surface ocean temperature forcings. In contrast to all previous modeling studies examining HEs, the GSM uses a transient last glacial cycle climate forcing, global viscoelastic glacial isostatic adjustment model, and sub-glacial hydrology model. The results presented here are based on a high-variance sub-ensemble retrieved from North American history matching for the last glacial cycle. Over our comparatively wide sampling of the potential parameter space (52 ensemble parameters for climate forcing and process uncertainties), we find two modes of Hudson Strait ice streaming: classic binge–purge versus near-continuous ice streaming with occasional shutdowns and subsequent surge onset overshoot. Our model results indicate that large ice shelves covering the Labrador Sea during the last glacial cycle only occur when extreme calving restrictions are applied. The otherwise minor ice shelves provide insignificant buttressing for the Hudson Strait ice stream. While sub-surface ocean temperature forcing leads to minor differences regarding surge characteristics, glacial isostatic adjustment does have a significant impact. Given input uncertainties, the strongest controls on ice stream surge cycling are the poorly constrained deep geothermal heat flux under Hudson Bay and Hudson Strait and the basal drag law. Decreasing the geothermal heat flux within available constraints and/or using a Coulomb sliding law instead of a Weertman-type power law leads to a shift from the near-continuous streaming mode to the binge–purge mode.

Ocean-scale patterns of environment and climate changes driving global marine phytoplankton biomass dynamics.

Effects of marine environment and climate changes on phytoplankton dynamics in global oceans have received increasing attention but remain a mystery. This study used a comprehensive approach combining correlation and information flow to explore relationships among phytoplankton biomass, marine environment, and climate forcing based on global observations over the past multi-decadal period. Correlation and causality between phytoplankton biomass and environmental factors exhibit spatial asymmetry-regions where environmental factors directly drive biomass variations were concentrated in oceanic currents and subtropical circulations. Temperature, light, and mixed layer depth show pronounced influences on global phytoplankton interdecadal variations. Climate forcing over interdecadal timescales directly affects phytoplankton biomass in the equatorial Pacific, South Pacific, and Indian Oceans, with more uncertain biomass variability in the equatorial Pacific due to multiple climate events. Our findings revealed that environment and climate changes directly affect phytoplankton interdecadal variability only in specific regions at the oceanic scale.

Ecosystem damage by increasing tropical cyclones

Climate change is driving an ongoing increase in tropical cyclone (TC) activity. While global economic losses are projected to double by 2100, there are no comparable predictions for TC impacts to coastal ecosystems that protect and sustain human lives and livelihoods. Here, rising North Atlantic TC (NATC) activity from 1970 to 2019, influenced by anthropogenic and natural climate forcing, is used to study the ecosystem impacts of intensifying TCs, potentially indicative of broader future climate change scenarios. Analysis of 97 NATC landfalls revealed 891 immediate post-storm impacts on ecosystems, with particularly detrimental effects on mangrove forests. Specifically, NATCs reduced the performance of individual species. Additionally, they altered community structure and processes through impacts on foundation species and their associated organisms. The severity of impacts was directly correlated with NATC landfall intensity (wind speed) for mangroves, whereas changes to waves, surge, sediments, and salinity caused most impacts on coral reefs, salt marshes, seagrass meadows, and oyster reefs (respectively), indicating complex intensity-damage interactions for many ecosystems. The analyses also revealed a positive correlation between very intense NATC activity and ecosystem damages. The research highlights a concerning trend of escalating impacts on coastal ecosystems under rising storm intensities, with the potential to challenge ecosystem resilience.

Quantifying risk of a noise-induced AMOC collapse from northern and tropical Atlantic Ocean variability

Abstract The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) exerts a major influence on global climate. There is much debate about whether the current strong AMOC may collapse as a result of anthropogenic forcing and/or internal variability. Increasing the noise in simple salt-advection models can change the apparent AMOC tipping threshold. However, it's not clear if `present-day' variability is strong enough to induce a collapse.
Here, we investigate how internal variability affects the likelihood of AMOC collapse. We examine internal variability of basin-scale salinities and temperatures in four CMIP6 pre-industrial simulations. We fit this to an empirical, process-based AMOC box model, and
find that noise-induced AMOC collapse (defined as a decade in which the mean AMOC strength falls below $5 \ \rm{Sv}$) is unlikely, however, if the AMOC is pushed closer to a bifurcation point due to external climate forcing, noise-induced tipping becomes more likely.
Surprisingly, we find a case where forcing temporarily overshoots a stability threshold but noise decreases the probability of collapse. Accurately modelling internal decadal variability is essential for understanding the increased uncertainty in AMOC projections.

Several Mechanisms Drive the Heterogeneity in Browning Across a Boreal Stream Network

AbstractOver the past few decades, many catchments in Northern hemisphere have experienced increases in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations, resulting in a brownish color of the water, known as aquatic browning. Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain browning, but consensus regarding the relative importance of recovery from acid deposition, climate change, and land management remains elusive. To advance our understanding of browning mechanisms, we explored DOC trends across 13 nested boreal catchments, leveraging concurrent hydrological, chemical, and terrestrial ecosystem data to quantify the contributions of different drivers on observed trends. We first identified the related environmental factors, then attributed the individual trends of DOC to potential drivers across space and time. Our results showed that all catchments exhibited increased DOC trends from 2003 to 2021, but the DOC response rates differed by five‐fold. No single mechanism could fully explain the browning; instead, sulfate deposition, climate‐related factors, and site properties jointly controlled the variation in DOC trends. Specifically, the long‐term increases in DOC were primarily driven by recovery from sulfate deposition, followed by increases in terrestrial productivity, temperature, and discharge. However, catchment area and landcover type also regulated the response rate of DOC to these drivers, creating spatial heterogeneity in browning among sub‐catchments despite similar deposition and climate forcing. Interestingly, browning has weakened in the last decade as sulfate deposition has fully recovered and other current drivers are insufficient to sustain the long‐term increases. Our results highlight that multifaceted, spatially structured, and nonstationary drivers must be accounted for to predict future DOC changes.

Reductions in atmospheric levels of non-CO2 greenhouse gases explain about a quarter of the 1998-2012 warming slowdown

The observed global mean surface temperature increase from 1998 to 2012 was slower than that since 1951. The relative contributions of all relevant factors including climate forcers, however, have not been comprehensively analyzed. Using a reduced-complexity climate model and an observationally constrained statistical model, here we find that La Niña cooling and a descending solar cycle contributed approximately 50% and 26% of the total warming slowdown during 1998-2012 compared to 1951-2012. Furthermore, reduced ozone-depleting substances and methane accounted for roughly a quarter of the total warming slowdown, which can be explained by changes in atmospheric concentrations. We identify that non-CO2 greenhouse gases played an important role in slowing global warming during 1998-2012.

FROT: A Framework to comprehensively describe radiative contributions to temperature responses

Abstract Different human activities and associated emissions of CO2 and non-CO2 radiative forcing agents and feedbacks determine the final state of Earth’s climate. To understand and explain contributions to global temperature changes, many emission-based metrics have been employed, such as CO2-equivalent or -forcing equivalent. None of these metrics, however, include dynamic responses from Earth system feedbacks in terms of carbon and heat redistribution, known to play an increasingly important role in ambitious mitigation scenarios. Here we introduce a framework that allows for an assessment of such feedbacks in addition to CO2, non-CO2 anthropogenic forcing and natural external variability contributions. FROT (Framework for Radiative cOntributions to Temperature response) allows for an assessment of components of direct radiative impact to the system (climate forcing), as well as Earth system feedbacks concerning heat and carbon. The framework is versatile in terms of applications and allows for exploring individual components contributions to, for example, temperature stabilisation simulations, or comparisons in different models and scenarios, as it can reasonably explain their simulated temperature variability. Here, we apply FROT to both an intermediate complexity and a fully coupled Earth system model, as we simulate highly ambitious mitigation scenarios. Comparing temperature stabilisation scenarios, we can show that both net-zero CO2 emissions and small amounts of positive CO2 emissions could lead to a stable global temperature trajectory. Our assessment reveals that the effects of non-CO2 climate forcings, especially the development of sulphate aerosols in the atmosphere, and the dynamics of the carbon cycle, play a pivotal role in the final level of warming and in enabling a temperature stabilisation. Under highly ambitious climate mitigation scenarios it becomes crucial to include Earth system feedbacks, specifically ocean heat uptake, to understand interannual to decadal temperature development, since previously secondary processes now become increasingly dominant. Our framework offers the opportunity to do so.

Deglaciation in the subtropical Andes has led to a peak in sediment delivery

Glaciers are thinning and retreating as climate warms, thus eroding less of the Earth’s surface. However, other hydrological factors in glacierized catchments are likely producing a transient increase in sediment delivery, resulting in ‘peak sediment’. Estimating the trajectory of the peak sediment is ecologically and socially important but scientifically challenging because of the delayed and non-linear response of glacier sediment export to climate forcing. This study used time series of suspended sediment concentration starting in the 1960s from 11 Andean rivers at subtropical latitudes to analyse past changes in sediment export and infer its future behaviour. The recent decade has experienced anomalously high sediment concentration in most glacierized catchments, but the 1970s experienced even higher values. Decadal variations in the relationship between sediment concentration and ice melt suggest that the magnitude of the current decade was lower due to reduced glacial sediment rather than other factors. Combining this result with the fact that glacial runoff is decreasing, it is inferred that, for most of the glacierized catchments, the peak sediment generated by the anthropogenic deglaciation started two centuries ago has already passed its maximum.

Marine heatwaves suppress ocean circulation and large vortices in the Gulf of Alaska

Large-scale anticyclonic vortices forming along the Gulf of Alaska continental slope serve as fertile ecosystems for marine life, significantly shaping the distribution of primary productivity, with 40–80% of the gulf’s open ocean surface chlorophyll-a concentrated in their cores. Between 2013 and 2023, Alaska experienced some of the largest and longest marine heatwaves ever recorded in the world’s oceans, persistently altering its ecosystem and fisheries. Here, using 30 years of satellite and reanalysis data, we find that the coastal upwelling atmospheric forcing conditions associated with the heatwaves have also significantly suppressed the Gulf of Alaska’s ocean circulation and the formation of large anticyclones. Climate model simulations spanning from 1850 to 2100 suggest that future changes in the Aleutian Low pressure system will lead to a 60% increase in upwelling extremes (>2 standard deviations), further weakening the ocean anticyclones. However, large uncertainties remain in the mechanisms controlling the Aleutian Low’s response to climate forcing in the models.

Extreme precipitation, exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change, drove Peru's record-breaking 2023 dengue outbreak.

Anthropogenic climate change is increasing the risk of extreme events that can lead to infectious disease epidemics, but few studies have directly measured this health cost of climate change. We do so by focusing on Cyclone Yaku, which affected northwestern Peru in March 2023, and was immediately followed by a dengue epidemic. Cyclone Yaku caused 67% of cases reported over six months in the affected region. Industrial-era climate forcing has increased the likelihood of extreme March precipitation like that associated with Cyclone Yaku by 42%. Assessing the linkages between climate change, extreme weather, and outbreaks of dengue and other infectious diseases is crucial for understanding the impact that climate change has already had and preparing for future health risks.

Long-lived topography of the Oaxacan Complex (southern Mexico) after the assembly of Pangea: Evidence from apatite fission-track dating

Understanding the exhumation history of ancient orogens is crucial for unraveling the tectonic and climatic forces that shape Earth's landscapes. Relict topography from ancient orogenic belts can persist on the surface for tens of millions of years, providing detritus to surrounding areas even without significant uplift events. This study examines the exhumation history of the Oaxacan Complex in southern Mexico, a Proterozoic peri-Gondwanan continental block located at the periphery of western equatorial Pangea during the l ate Paleozoic. This complex supplied detritus to extensional basins in southern Mexico throughout the Mesozoic and Cenozoic. We reinterpret existing apatite fission track (AFT) data from in situ samples of the Oaxacan Complex and add a set of detrital AFT data from modern sediments of the Peñoles River, which drains the northern Oaxacan Complex. The detrital AFT age distribution is continuous, ranging from ∼180 Ma to ∼50 Ma, without a predominant component age and showing a positive age-elevation correlation, suggesting a slow cooling history of the basement exposed in the drained area. QTQt thermal history modeling of the detrital AFT ages corroborates this slow cooling. Moreover, reinterpretation of in-situ AFT data from the literature confirms that the cooling history of the crustal block exposed in the northern Oaxacan Complex is characterized by a prolonged residence time in the Partial Annealing Zone of the apatite fission-track thermochronometer, spanning at least from the Triassic to the Paleogene. These results suggest that the Oaxacan Complex did not undergo any significant exhumation events after the Late Paleozoic assembly of Pangea, neither during the Triassic–Early Cretaceous rifting associated with Pangea breakup nor during development of the Late Cretaceous–Eocene Mexican Orogen. According to this scenario, we suggest that the post-collision relict topography of the Oaxacan Complex was likely sustained by isostatic rebound and lithological resistance, supplying sediment for tens of millions of years to the Mesozoic and Cenozoic basins of southern Mexico.

A Copernicus-based evapotranspiration dataset at 100 m spatial resolution over four Mediterranean basins

Abstract. Evapotranspiration (ET) is responsible for regulating the hydrological cycle, with a relevant impact on air humidity and precipitation that is particularly important in the context of acute drought events in recent years. With the intensification of rainfall deficits and extreme heat events, the Mediterranean region requires regular monitoring to enhance water resource management. Even though remote sensing provides spatially continuous information for estimating ET on large scales, existing global products with spatial resolutions ≥ 0.5 km are insufficient for capturing spatial detail at a local level. In the framework of ESA's 4DMED-Hydrology project, we generate an ET dataset at both high spatial and high temporal resolutions using the Priestley–Taylor Two-Source Energy Balance (TSEB-PT) model driven by Copernicus satellite data. We build an automatic workflow to generate a 100 m ET product by combining data from Sentinel-2 (S2) MultiSpectral Instrument (MSI) and Sentinel-3 (S3) land surface temperature (LST) with ERA5 climate reanalysis derived within the period 2017–2021 over four Mediterranean basins in Italy, Spain, France, and Tunisia (Po, Ebro, Hérault, and Medjerda). First, original S2 data are pre-processed before deriving 100 m inputs for the ET estimation. Next, biophysical variables, like leaf area index and fractional vegetation cover, are generated, and then they are temporally composited within a 10 d window according to S3 acquisitions. Consequently, decadal S2 mosaics are used to derive the remaining TSEB-PT inputs. In parallel, we sharpen 1 km S3 by exploiting the dependency between coarse-resolution LST and 100 m S2 reflectances using a decision tree algorithm. Afterwards, climate forcings are utilized to model energy fluxes and then for daily ET retrieval. The daily ET composites demonstrate reasonable TSEB-PT estimates. Based on the validation results against eight eddy covariance (EC) towers between 2017 and 2021, the model predicts 100 m ET with an average RMSE of 1.38 mm d−1 and a Pearson coefficient equal to 0.60. Regardless of some constraints mostly related to the high complexity of EC sites, TSEB-PT can effectively estimate 100 m ET, which opens up new opportunities for monitoring the hydrological cycle on a regional scale. The full dataset is freely available at https://doi.org/10.48784/b90a02d6-5d13-4acd-b11c-99a0d381ca9a, https://doi.org/10.48784/fb631817-189f-4b57-af6a-38cef217bad3, https://doi.org/10.48784/70cd192c-0d46-4811-ad1d-51a09734a2e9, and https://doi.org/10.48784/7abdbd94-ddfe-48df-ab09-341ad2f52e47 for the Ebro, Hérault, Medjerda, and Po catchments, respectively (Bartkowiak et al., 2023a–d).

Assessing the effects of fjord geometry on Greenland tidewater glacier stability

Abstract Tidewater glaciers frequently advance and retreat in ways uncoupled from climate forcing. This complicates the task of forecasting the evolution of individual glaciers and the overall Greenland ice sheet, much of which is drained by tidewater glaciers. Past observational research has identified a set of processes collectively known as the tidewater glacier cycle (TGC) to describe tidewater glacier evolution in four stages: the advancing stage, the extended stage, the retreating stage and the retreated stage. Once glacier retreat is initiated, the TGC is thought to depend largely on the glacier's calving rate, which is controlled by fjord geometry. However, there has been little modeling or systematic observational work on the topic. Measuring calving rates directly is challenging and thus we developed an averaged von Mises stress state at the glacier terminus as a calving rate proxy that can be estimated from surface velocities, ice thickness, a terminus position and subglacial topography. We then analyzed 44 tidewater glaciers in Greenland and assessed the current state in the TGC for them. Of the 44 glaciers, we find that fjord geometry is causing instability in ten cases, vs stability in seven, with 11 in rapid retreat and 16 have been historically stable.

Hydroclimate modulation of central-eastern Mexico by the North Atlantic subtropical high since the little ice age

We reconstructed the hydroclimate of central-eastern Mexico over the last 700 common era (CE) based on inferences from multi-proxies from a stalagmite (K-Inc) collected at Karmidas cave, eastern México. Projections on hydroclimate variability in Mexico raise concerns about possible future occurrences of severe droughts and seasonal water balance fluctuations related to increased global temperatures caused by anthropogenic climate change (Murray-Tortarolo, 2021). The eastern region influences the production and supply of food to Mexico. Simulations of past climates, validated by paleoclimate records, yield valuable perspectives on climate change and enhance our understanding of future projections. However, the paucity of paleoclimatic records hinders understanding past hydroclimatic variations and their climatic mechanisms in eastern Mexico. Our record covers the Little Ice Age (LIA) through the Historical Interval (HI), a crucial period for understanding the climate repercussions spanning the transition from Earth's climatic history to the post-industrial era. The reduced intensity of the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH) during the LIA enabled a prominent negative phase of NAO-like variability from 1600 CE until the end of LIA. Consequently, preferent meridional airflow within the continent fosters the encounter of moisture-laden intrusions with the increased frequency of cold surges as the occurrence of frontal rain in eastern Mexico, impairing the amount effect on the K-Inc δ18O record. However, after the artificial opening of the cave in 1910 CE, the δ18O records of K-Inc began to exhibit a ∼20-year oscillatory periodicity. In this context, the trace elements of K-Inc help elucidate the climatic conditions that governed the precipitation regime during the investigated period. The visual alignment between the zonal sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) and the trace elements (Sr/Ca and Ba/Ca) of K-Inc reveals their relationship. Warm zonal SST in the EEP appears to be associated with changes in the length of the winter and summer seasons in eastern Mexico during the LIA. In contrast, over the HI, the trace elements of K-Inc show an anti-phase response to Warm zonal SST in the EEP, denoting wetter climate conditions at the vicinities of Karmidas Cave. This configuration led to questioning the influence of SST zonal variability in the EEP during the HI, which was probably masked by more relevant climate forcing. Our findings enabled us to draw climate scenarios by addressing the main climate drivers in our records.

Molecular Insights into Gas-Particle Partitioning and Viscosity of Atmospheric Brown Carbon.

Biomass burning organic aerosol (BBOA), containing brown carbon chromophores, plays a critical role in atmospheric chemistry and climate forcing. However, the effects of evaporation on BBOA volatility and viscosity under different environmental conditions remain poorly understood. This study focuses on the molecular characterization of laboratory-generated BBOA proxies from wood pyrolysis emissions. The initial mixture, "pyrolysis oil (PO1)", was progressively evaporated to produce more concentrated mixtures (PO1.33, PO2, and PO3) with volume reduction factors of 1.33, 2, and 3, respectively. Chemical speciation and volatility were investigated using temperature-programmed desorption combined with direct analysis in real-time ionization and high-resolution mass spectrometry (TPD-DART-HRMS). This novel approach quantified saturation vapor pressures and enthalpies of individual species, enabling the construction of volatility basis set distributions and the quantification of gas-particle partitioning. Viscosity estimates, validated by poke-flow experiments, showed a significant increase with evaporation, slowing particle-phase diffusion and extending equilibration times. These findings suggest that highly viscous tar ball particles in aged biomass burning emissions form as semivolatile components evaporate. The study highlights the importance of evaporation processes in shaping BBOA properties, underscoring the need to incorporate these factors into atmospheric models for better predictions of BBOA aging and its environmental impact.

Towards the construction of regional marine radiocarbon calibration curves: an unsupervised machine learning approach

Abstract. Radiocarbon may serve as a powerful dating tool in palaeoceanography, but its accuracy is limited by the need to calibrate radiocarbon dates to calendar ages. A key problem is that marine radiocarbon dates must be corrected for past offsets from either the contemporary atmosphere (i.e. “reservoir age” offsets) or a modelled estimate of the global average surface ocean (i.e. delta-R offsets). This presents a challenge because the spatial distribution of reservoir ages and delta-R offsets can vary significantly, particularly over periods of major marine hydrographic and/or carbon cycle change such as the last deglaciation. Modern reservoir age and delta-R estimates therefore have limited applicability. While forward modelling of past R-age variability has been proposed as a means of resolving this problem, this requires accurate a priori knowledge of past global radiocarbon budget closure (i.e. production, and cycling), which we currently lack. In this context, the construction of empirical regional marine calibration curves could provide a way forward. However, the spatial reach of such calibrations and their robustness subject to (uncertain) temporal changes in climate and ocean circulation would need to be tested. Here, we use unsupervised machine learning techniques to define distinct regions of the surface ocean that exhibit coherent behaviour in terms of their radiocarbon age offsets from the contemporary atmosphere (R ages), regardless of the causes of R-age variability. We apply multiple algorithms (k-means, k-medoids, and hierarchical clustering) to outputs from two different numerical models spanning a range of climate states, forcings, and timescales of adjustment. Comparisons between the cluster assignments across model runs confirm some robust regional patterns that likely stem from constraints imposed by large-scale ocean and atmospheric physics. At the coarsest scale, regions of coherent R-age variability correspond to the major ocean basins. By further dividing basin-scale shape-based clusters into amplitude-based subclusters, we recover regional associations, such as increased high-latitude R ages, or the propagation of R-age anomalies from regions of deep mixing in the Southern Ocean to upwelling sites in the eastern equatorial Pacific, which cohere with known modern oceanographic processes. We show that the medoids (i.e. the most representative locations) for these regional sub-clusters provide significantly better approximations of simulated local R-age variability than constant offsets from the global surface average. This remains true when cluster assignments obtained from one model simulation are applied to simulated R-age time series from another. Further, model-based clusters are found to be broadly consistent with existing reservoir age reconstructions that span the last ∼30 kyr. We therefore propose that machine learning provides a promising approach to the problem of defining regions for which empirical marine radiocarbon calibration curves may eventually be generated.

Miocene ice sheet dynamics and sediment deposition in the central Ross Sea, Antarctica

Drill cores from the Antarctic continental shelf are essential for directly constraining changes in past Antarctic Ice Sheet extent. Here, we provide a sedimentary facies analysis of drill cores from International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Site U1521 in the Ross Sea, which reveals a unique, detailed snapshot of Antarctic Ice Sheet evolution between ca. 18 Ma and 13 Ma. We identify distinct depositional packages, each of which contains facies successions that are reflective of past baseline shifts in the presence or absence of marine-terminating ice sheets on the outermost Ross Sea continental shelf. The oldest depositional package (>18 Ma) contains massive diamictites stacked through aggradation and deposited in a deep, actively subsiding basin that restricted marine ice sheet expansion on the outer continental shelf. A slowdown in tectonic subsidence after 17.8 Ma led to the deposition of progradational massive diamictites with thin mudstone beds/laminae, as several large marine-based ice sheet advances expanded onto the mid- to outer continental shelf between 17.8 Ma and 17.4 Ma. Between 17.2 Ma and 15.95 Ma, packages of interbedded diamictite and diatom-rich mudstone were deposited during a phase of highly variable Antarctic Ice Sheet extent and volume. This included periods of Antarctic Ice Sheet advance near the outer shelf during the early Miocene Climate Optimum (MCO)—despite this being a well-known period of peak global warmth between ca. 17.0 Ma and 14.6 Ma. Conversely, there were periods of peak warmth within the MCO during which diatom-rich mudstones with little to no ice-rafted debris were deposited, which indicates that the Antarctic Ice Sheet was greatly reduced in extent and had retreated to a smaller terrestrial-terminating ice sheet, most notably between 16.3 Ma and 15.95 Ma. Post-14.2 Ma, diamictites and diatomites contain unambiguous evidence of subglacial shearing in the core and provide the first direct, well-dated evidence of highly erosive marine ice sheets on the outermost continental shelf during the onset of the Middle Miocene Climate Transition (MMCT; 14.2−13.6 Ma). Although global climate forcings and feedbacks influenced Antarctic Ice Sheet advances and retreats during the MCO and MMCT, we propose that this response was nonlinear and heavily influenced by regional feedbacks related to the shoaling of the continental shelf due to reduced subsidence, sediment infilling, and local sea-level changes that directly influenced oceanic influences on melting at the Antarctic Ice Sheet margin. Although intervals of diatom-rich muds and diatomite indicating open-marine interglacial conditions still occurred during (and following) the MMCT, repeated advances of marine-based ice sheets since that time have resulted in widespread erosion and overdeepening in the inner Ross Sea, which has greatly enhanced sensitivity to marine ice sheet instability since 14.2 Ma.