Abstract
The rise in surface air temperature (SAT) in Venezuela, leading to the loss of all its glaciers, underscores the urgency of understanding human contributions to this phenomenon. This study investigates the impact of anthropogenic climate forcings on SAT across Venezuela, employing observational data, multi-model simulations, and optimal fingerprinting method. Anthropogenic forcings have driven a 0.40-0.85 C SAT rise during the industrial era, with land use (LU) emerging as a significant driver (0.36-0.68 C), surpassing greenhouse gases (GHGs) (0.10-0.62 C). Conversely, anthropogenic aerosols (Aaer) exhibit a cooling effect (- 0.93 to - 0.25 C) on SAT. Projections under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 indicate substantial SAT increases by the 21st century's end, underscoring human-induced SAT rise. Effective management of regional Aaer and LU changes in Venezuela holds the potential for mitigating current and future warming and its subsequent impacts on the fragile ecosystem of this region.
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