Climate Anomalies Research Articles

Global increase in the occurrence and impact of multiyear droughts.

Persistent multiyear drought (MYD) events pose a growing threat to nature and humans in a changing climate. We identified and inventoried global MYDs by detecting spatiotemporally contiguous climatic anomalies, showing that MYDs have become drier, hotter, and led to increasingly diminished vegetation greenness. The global terrestrial land affected by MYDs has increased at a rate of 49,279 ± 14,771 square kilometers per year from 1980 to 2018. Temperate grasslands have exhibited the greatest declines in vegetation greenness during MYDs, whereas boreal and tropical forests have had comparably minor responses. With MYDs becoming more common, this global quantitative inventory of the occurrence, severity, trend, and impact of MYDs provides an important benchmark for facilitating more effective and collaborative preparedness toward mitigation of and adaptation to such extreme events.

Hydroclimatic extremes threaten groundwater quality and stability

Heavy precipitation, drought, and other hydroclimatic extremes occur more frequently than in the past climate reference period (1961–1990). Given their strong effect on groundwater recharge dynamics, these phenomena increase the vulnerability of groundwater quantity and quality. Over the course of the past decade, we have documented changes in the composition of dissolved organic matter in groundwater. We show that fractions of ingressing surface-derived organic molecules increased significantly as groundwater levels declined, whereas concentrations of dissolved organic carbon remained constant. Molecular composition changeover was accelerated following 2018’s extreme summer drought. These findings demonstrate that hydroclimatic extremes promote rapid transport between surface ecosystems and groundwaters, thereby enabling xenobiotic substances to evade microbial processing, accrue in greater abundance in groundwater, and potentially compromise the safe nature of these potable water sources. Groundwater quality is far more vulnerable to the impact of recent climate anomalies than is currently recognized, and the molecular composition of dissolved organic matter can be used as a comprehensive indicator for groundwater quality deterioration.

Peatland Hydro-Climatological Parameters Variability in Response to 2019–2022 Climate Anomalies in the OKI Regency

Peatlands in OKI Regency are highly flammable during extreme dry seasons and experience flooding during extreme rainy seasons. Research related to peatlands is important to be carried out in disaster mitigation efforts on peatlands. In this study, we aimed to examine the impact of climate anomalies occurring between 2019 and 2022 on the Rainfall (RF), Groundwater Level (GWL), and Soil Moisture (SM) in this region. We analyzed data collected at the CJ2 station to understand the dynamics of these parameters throughout the occurrence of the ENSO and IOD phenomena in 2019–2022. The findings of this study indicate a positive correlation between RF and GWL. Specifically, a higher amount of RF resulted in a stronger correlation. Moreover, the rate of the GWL decline was 0.24 mm/d, while the rate of the SM decline was 0.06%/day. Furthermore, the soil moisture in CJ2 OKI must be maintained at a minimum of 20% to prevent fires. In addition, an empirical equation was derived to express the relationship between GWL (m) and SM (%) as SM = 49,044 GWL + 59,142. The findings of this study provide valuable in-sights for all stakeholders involved in efforts to mitigate the impact of natural disasters on peatlands.

Recent changes in ENSO’s impacts on the summertime circumglobal teleconnection and mid-latitude extremes

The boreal summer circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) provides a primary predictability source for mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere climate anomalies and extreme events. Here, we show that the CGT’s circulation structure has been displaced westward by half a wavelength since the late 1970s, more severely impacting heatwaves and droughts over East Europe, East Asia, and southwestern North America. We present empirical and modelling evidence of the essential role of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in shaping this change. Before the late 1970s, ENSO indirectly promoted CGT by modulating the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR). Since 1980s, the ENSO–ISMR link has weakened, but the westward-displaced ENSO forcing has been able to directly trigger a Rossby wave response at the exit of the East Asian westerly jet, resulting in a shift of the previous CGT’s North Pacific and downstream centers westward along the westerly jet waveguide. State-of-the-art climate models with prescribed anthropogenic forcing cannot simulate these changes, suggesting that they are driven by natural variability. This work highlights the importance of studying the impacts of changing ENSO to improve seasonal prediction of mid-latitude extreme events.

The profound impact of the greenhouse effect on urban environments based on mechanisms and mitigation strategies

As the city of Xi'an expands rapidly, the urban heat island (UHI) effect and the greenhouse effect are becoming more and more pronounced in terms of the city's temperature impact. The dense population in the urban core, coupled with the expanding suburbs, makes the city's climate change particularly dramatic. This study examines how the greenhouse effect is further exacerbating the urban heat island effect in Xi'an, with a particular focus on the impacts on the city's energy demand, public health, and the quality of life of its residents. Based on long-term climate data, pollutant levels and satellite remote sensing analysis, the study shows that urban sprawl and the accumulation of greenhouse gases are clearly leading to an increase in the temperature difference between the city centre and the surrounding areas. These findings not only reveal the causes of localized climate anomalies, but also show increased health risks and energy demand for residents. Through these observations, this paper highlights the strong link between urban planning and climate, and suggests that the necessary measures to address these challenges are to increase green space and promote energy-efficient buildings, measures that are essential to alleviate the problems in Xi'an's urban environment.

Cropland expansion links climate extremes and diets in Nigeria.

Climate change threatens smallholder agriculture and food security in the Global South. While cropland expansion is often used to counter adverse climate effects despite ecological trade-offs, the benefits for diets and nutrition remain unclear. This study quantitatively examines relationships between climate anomalies, forest loss from cropland expansion, and dietary outcomes in Nigeria, Africa's most populous country. Combining high-resolution data on forest cover and climate variables within random forest and panel regression models, we find that 25 to 31% of annual forest loss is linked to climate variability. Using georeferenced household survey data, we then find that changes in forest cover have a significant positive association with changes in child diet diversity-a key proxy of nutritional adequacy-while cropland expansion does not, suggesting that such forest conversions may be an ineffective climate adaptation strategy for improving nutrition. Our findings highlight the potential of nutrition-sensitive climate adaptation to enhance yields, promote nutritious cropping choices, and protect remaining forests.

Coral-derived seasonal seawater δ18O records from the Northern South China Sea: Hydroclimatic insights into the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age

Coral-derived seasonal seawater δ18O records from the Northern South China Sea: Hydroclimatic insights into the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age

Human neuroinvasive Toscana virus infections in Italy from 2016 to 2023: Increased incidence in 2022 and 2023.

BackgroundToscana virus (TOSV) is transmitted to humans through bites of infected sand flies. Neuroinvasive TOSV infections are leading causes of meningitis/encephalitis in southern Europe and notifiable in Italy since 2016. In 2022-23, Italy experienced extreme climate anomalies and a concomitant increase in mosquito and tick-borne disease transmission.AimTo identify the spatiotemporal distribution and risk groups of neuroinvasive TOSV infections in Italy in 2022-23 vs 2016-21.MethodsWe retrospectively described all autochthonous, laboratory-confirmed neuroinvasive TOSV cases notified to the national surveillance system in 2016-23 using frequencies, proportions, incidences and incidence risk ratios (IRRs) with 95% CIs, stratified by year, sex, age, region/autonomous province (AP) of infection/exposure and infection/exposure municipality by urbanisation level.ResultsIn 2022-23, 276 cases were notified (average annual incidence: 2.34/1,000,000 population) vs 331 cases in 2016-21 (0.92/1,000,000), with increased incidence extending into September. In 2022-23, infections were acquired in 12/21 regions/APs, predominantly in Emilia Romagna (57.6%; 159/276) as in 2016-21, including four regions/APs with no local infections in 2016-21. Similar to 2016-21, during 2022-23 residence in rural municipalities (vs urban), male sex, working age (19-67 years) and age > 67 years (vs ≤ 18 years) were identified as risk factors with IRRs of 2.89 (95% CI: 2.01-4.17), 2.17 (95% CI: 1.66-2.84), 5.31 (95% CI: 2.81-10.0) and 5.06 (95% CI: 2.59-9.86), respectively.ConclusionItaly experienced a nearly 2.6-fold increase in neuroinvasive TOSV incidence in 2022-23 vs 2016-21. Raising public awareness on risk factors and personal protection measures may enhance prevention efforts.

Ensemble habitat suitability model predicts Suaeda salsa distribution and resilience to extreme climate events.

Climate anomalies lead to an increased occurrence of extreme temperature and drought events in coastal wetlands, resulting in heightened survival pressure on salt marsh plants. It is imperative to anticipate the effects of these events on the habitat suitability and resilience of coastal salt marsh vegetation to inform restoration efforts and management strategies. Herein, an ensemble model was developed to evaluate the recovery of Suaeda Salsa in the two subsequent years following the anomalously high temperatures and decreased precipitation experienced during the summer of 2018, potentially leading to a decline in this species in the eastern coast of Liaohe Estuary wetland (Bohai Sea, China). Additionally, the resilience of the ecosystem was evaluated based on the evolution of density and morphology metrics of S. salsa. The findings suggest that the ensemble model demonstrates exceptional predictive performance in assessing habitat suitability, as evidenced by True Skill Statistic (TSS) values of 0.94±0.02 and 0.96±0.03 for the years 2019 and 2020, respectively, and Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (AUC) values of 0.96±0.03 in 2019 and 0.97±0.02 in 2020. Tidal elevation and soil salinity were identified as the primary predictors for the habitat suitability of S. salsa, while sand content emerged as the most influential factor driving its expansion. The core and suitable habitat areas of S. salsa experienced a significant increase from 9.61±1.16km2 in 2019 to 15.66±2.24km2 in 2020, representing a 62.96±8.44 % growth. A notable increase in density and above-ground biomass was noted, indicating a potential recovery of salt marsh vegetation from multi-stresses. However, a decline in below-ground biomass, from 61.9gm-2 in August 2018 to 39.8gm-2 in August 2020, suggests a reduction in the resilience of S. salsa to future disturbances. This decrease in below-ground reserves, which were crucial for the tolerance of S. Salsa, may impact the vegetation's ability to withstand future challenges. The results highlight the effectiveness of optimizing freshwater irrigation and implementing artificially constructed tidal channels as strategies for future restoration efforts. Besides, the evaluation method of habitat suitability and bio-metrics proposed herein is applicable to the restoration and protection for other estuarine halophytes.

The Relative Contributions of Internal Variability and External Forcing to Pacific Walker Circulation over the Last Millennium

Abstract Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) is an important component of tropical atmospheric circulation. Current studies have mainly focused on PWC changes over recent decades and the near future, while less effort has been devoted to long-term PWC variations. In this study, we investigate PWC changes over the last millennium (LM) based on the Community Earth System Model LM Ensemble (CESM-LME). The simulated PWC variations show no significant trend but do reveal decadal fluctuations during the LM, which underestimate the strengthened Little Ice Age (LIA)–Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) PWC differences indicated by proxy-based reconstructions. A quantitative estimation of the contributions made to PWC variability from internal variability and external forcing is conducted by using multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis. The internal variabilities contribute approximately 80% to the changes in PWC during the LM, among which the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) has the largest contribution. In the positive phase of the IPO, the Indo-Pacific sea level pressure (SLP) gradient decreases, and anomalous westerlies occur in the tropical western Pacific, corresponding to a weakened PWC. The relationships between the IPO and PWC show multidecadal-to-centennial fluctuations, suggesting that other internal modes or external forcings may have modulated the IPO–PWC relationship. Volcanic forcing is also an important contributor to PWC variability during the LM. The simulated PWC significantly weakens and lasts for 1–2 years after large volcanic eruptions. The El Niño–like SST pattern and the corresponding zonal SLP gradient lead to the PWC weakening following large volcanic eruptions. Significance Statement As one of the most active components of tropical atmospheric circulation, Pacific Walker circulation (PWC) can significantly modulate global climate through atmospheric teleconnections. Previous studies have mainly focused on PWC variability over recent warm periods and future changes. However, understanding of PWC changes is currently lacking due to limited instrumental observations. The last millennium (LM) has a rich archive of proxy records that give us a longer perspective on climate variability and change, which is an excellent period for understanding the long-term mechanisms and changes in PWC. In this study, we use simulations from the CESM-LME to quantify the relative importance of internal variability and external forcings to PWC variations during the LM. The simulated PWC variations show no significant trend but decadal fluctuations, which underestimates the reconstructed PWC variations during the LM. The internal variabilities contribute approximately 80% to the changes in PWC, among which the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) has the largest contribution. External forcing, especially the contribution made by volcanic forcing, is also nonnegligible. Both the positive phase of the IPO and large tropical volcanic eruptions could trigger El Niño–like SST anomalies, accompanied by a decreased Indo-Pacific SLP gradient and a weakened PWC.

Обзор результатов двадцать седьмой сессии Северо-Евразийского климатического форума (СЕАКОФ-27) и семинара под эгидой ЭСКАТО ООН

The North Eurasian Climate Centre held the 27th session of the North Eurasian Climate Outlook Forum (NEACOF-27) combined with a workshop under the auspices of the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), as a parallel section within the 8th All-Russian Joint Meteorological and Hydrological Congress. The joint event served as an important platform for the exchange of knowledge and experience in the field of climate research, seasonal forecasting and adaptation to climate change, which emphasized its importance for regional cooperation. During the forum, a consensus forecast of the temperature and precipitation regime for the territory of Northern Eurasia for the winter of 2024/2025 was presented. Based on the consensus forecast, using the impact-based forecasting model developed by ESCAP, a forecast of the likely impact of climate anomalies on economic sectors in the winter of 2024/2025 for the Northern Eurasia region was developed and presented. A discussion was held with the participation of representatives of ESCAP, NEACC and NHMS on the development of regional cooperation in the field of disaster risk reduction, adaptation to climate change, and strengthening the response to large-scale and transboundary emergencies in Central Asia.

Interannual Variation of Global Surface Potential Vorticity Forcing in Boreal January and Its Link with Long-Persisting Droughts in Southwest China

Abstract An increasing number of studies have recognized the essential influence of surface potential vorticity (PV) forcing on atmospheric circulation. In this study, we investigated the temporal characteristics of global surface PV forcing in January and its associated climate anomalies. The global surface PV forcing exhibited a pronounced decreasing trend, implying reduced forcing on atmospheric PV. Its interannual component was accompanied by cold winters on the Eurasian and North American continents and long-persisting droughts in southwest China (SWC), consistent with the coexistence of these extreme events. Based on the global surface PV forcing index, the mechanism underlying long-persisting droughts, which lasted from October to January, was investigated. The formation mechanisms of persistent drought varied monthly. Specifically, the occurrence of drought in October was closely related to Rossby wave activity over Eurasia, which enhanced the anomalous anticyclone over the Tibetan Plateau and subsequently induced air descent over SWC. In contrast, drought in November and December could be ascribed to La Niña events in the central Pacific, which facilitated subsidence over SWC through local meridional circulation anomalies. Distinct from other months, the combined effects of La Niña events and circulation anomalies over northern Eurasia caused the drought in January. The former reduced precipitation over southern SWC, whereas the latter influenced precipitation over central SWC. The present study provides novel insights into simultaneous extreme events in the Northern Hemisphere. Significance Statement Long-persisting droughts in southwest China (SWC) usually coexist with cold winters in the Eurasian and North American continents. Here, we suggested that the coexistence of these extremes was closely linked to interannual variability in global surface potential vorticity forcing. Based on this relationship, the mechanism underlying long-persisting droughts in SWC, lasting from October to January, was investigated. The formation of these droughts could be ascribed to Rossby wave activity over Eurasia in October and to La Niña events in the central Pacific in November and December. The drought in January was ascribed to the combined effects of La Niña and circulation anomalies over northern Eurasia. This study provides a broader view for understanding extremes that occurred simultaneously in the Northern Hemisphere.

Climate Anomalies of Maize Drought Level based on Land Water Balance in Gorontalo Province, Indonesia

Background: The complexity of the distribution patterns of drought and soil water balance across various regions raises questions about how the mechanism of drought events responds to climate anomalies. The research aims to determine the climate anomaly pattern of maize drought levels based on land water balance with FAO Penman Monteith evapotranspiration value estimates in Gorontalo district, Indonesia. This research was carried out from April to August 2020. Methods: The research location was in Limboto subdistrict, Gorontalo Province, Indonesia. The material in this research is climate data from 1997 to 2016 (20 years) including rainfall, solar radiation, maximum and minimum air temperature, exposure time, air humidity and wind speed. The tools in this research are sample rings, Belgi drills, GPS, documentation tools. The method used is the drought index analysis method and the water adequacy index based on the FAO Penman Monteith evapotranspiration method. Result: El Nino and La Nina climate anomaly patterns occur every 5 to 7 year recurring period. The highest level of drought with strong drought status occurred during the El Nino anomaly in 1997-1998 for 8 months and this triggered a decrease in harvested area and corn production with a coefficient of reduction in vulnerable production category. La Niña climate anomaly years 1999 and 2007 had an impact on low accumulation potential of water loss with highest level of drought weak status and this triggered an increase in harvested area and corn production with a coefficient of reduction in very resistant production category.

ANALISIS CURAH HUJAN EKSTREM DI KEPULAUAN MALUKU DAN HUBUNGANNYA DENGAN FENOMENA ENSO

Global climate anomalies can cause extreme climates, especially in Indonesia, one of which includes extreme rainfall events. Rainfall in Indonesia itself is coherent and correlated with ENSO variations in the Pacific Ocean. Apart from the influence of ENSO, there are other influences such as regional, local factors and regional topography which also greatly determine the characteristics of rainfall, especially in the Maluku Islands which have different rainfall patterns from other areas in Indonesia. The complex phenomena that influence rainfall in the Maluku region attract the attention of researchers to analyze extreme rainfall patterns and their relationship to ENSO relationships. This research uses daily rainfall data at BMKG and Metomanz stations from 1992 to 2022 for 30 years, and uses a simple linear regression method obtained from the results of ERA 5 reanalysis data with BMKG data, at stations that do not have complete data for 30 years. This research was conducted using the Mann-Kendall and Sen's Slope methods. The Mann-Kendall method is used to determine the degree of significance and change in positive or negative direction. Meanwhile, the Sen's Slope Method is used to determine the magnitude of the linear slope of the resulting trend. Extreme climate patterns in the Maluku Islands are influenced by the ENSO phenomenon and geographical conditions of the region. There are significant trend changes in CDD, CWD, and PRCPTOT. The Rnmm index is divided into three index limits (R20mm, R15mm, and R10mm). Increasing trends of CDD, CWD, PRCPTOT, occurred sequentially at Mathilda Batlayeri, Kuffar, Bandaneira stations. The Rnmm index is divided into three index limits R20mm, R15mm, and R10mm and there is a sequential increasing trend at Bandaneira, Namlea and Mathilda Batlayeri stations

Comparative analysis of east Asian summer monsoon northern boundary indices: variability, climate anomalies and driving mechanisms

Comparative analysis of east Asian summer monsoon northern boundary indices: variability, climate anomalies and driving mechanisms

Impacts of Changing Atmospheric Circulation Patterns on Aviation Turbulence Over Europe

AbstractAddressing aviation turbulence not only enhances passenger comfort but also help to reduce fuel consumption and environmental impact, supporting aviation sustainability. By using ERA5 reanalysis data we explore how changing atmospheric circulation, monitored via sea level pressure trends, impacts aviation turbulence over Europe. Our results show coherent climate anomalies, with rising turbulence intensity over the UK and Northern Europe where most events involve clear air turbulence, which occurs unexpectedly and without warning, particularly at flight altitudes. We also highlight a clear seasonal patterns in moderate‐or‐greater turbulence encounters, most frequent and intense in winter, with a key role of wind shears due to the sub‐tropical jet position over Southern Mediterranean. Our approach adds to previous studies on the same topic by analyzing individual atmospheric circulation pattern changes and their effects on turbulence‐related factors. This offers insight into how climate change affecting atmospheric dynamics may contribute to increased aviation turbulence.

Projected Drought Prevalence in Malawi’s Lufilya Catchment: A Study Using Regional Climate Models and the SPI Method

Droughts are caused either by a deficiency in precipitation compared to normal levels or by excessive evapotranspiration exceeding long-term averages. Therefore, assessing future drought prevalence based on projected climatic variables is essential for effective drought preparedness. In this study, an ensemble of three Regional Climate Models (REMO2009, RCA4, and CCLM4-8-17) was used for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), covering two future time periods (2025–2069 and 2070–2100). The quantile distribution mapping technique was employed to bias-correct the RCMs. The ensemble of RCMs projected an increase in rainfall, ranging from 40% to 85% under both RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5. Both RCPs indicated an increase in daily average temperatures. RCP 4.5 projects an increase in average daily temperature by 1% between 2025 and 2069 and 6.5% between 2070 and 2100, while under RCP 8.5, temperatures are expected to rise by 3.7% between 2025 and 2069 and 12.7% between 2070 and 2100. The Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to translate these projected climatic anomalies into future drought prevalence. The results suggest that RCP 4.5 forecasts an 8% increase in drought prevalence, while RCP 8.5 projects an 11% increase in drought frequency, with a greater rise in moderate and severe droughts and a decrease in extreme drought occurrences.

Optimized Evaluations of Irrigation Profits and Balance of Irrigation Water Demand and Supply Under Climate Change

Optimizing irrigation profit is essential for enhancing agricultural productivity and ensuring sustainable water resource management, especially under the uncertainties caused by climate variability. It signifies that maximizing irrigation profits has become the primary consideration of current agricultural irrigation systems. By discussing the change in irrigation profits with irrigation fraction f, which represents the proportion of irrigated farmland per unit area of cultivated land, a new method of qualitative diagnosis of irrigation supply and demand balance was proposed by means of the optimal irrigation fraction f0 corresponding to the objective function yf and the correlation coefficient ρ between irrigation water demand anomalies D^ and irrigation water withdrawal anomalies I^ (ρD^,I^=0). It will serve as a new attempt to optimize irrigation profits. We argue that the optimal objective function yf0 represents the state of equilibrium of irrigation supply and demand. This study proposes a reverse optimization idea, which includes two comparison methods, to estimate the comprehensively optimal irrigation fraction f0 that maximizes irrigation profits and irrigation profit per unit area while minimizing risks associated with climatic anomalies. By demonstrating that f0 performs exceptionally well in meeting the objectives of maximizing irrigation profits and minimizing risks across various climatic scenarios, we suggest a robust method for optimizing irrigation profits, which simply calculates ρD^,I^f=0 because ρD^,I^ is the function of f. Since f0 could capture the optimal solution to the greatest extent. It can serve as a simple and effective solution to determine the optimal objective function yf0 and diagnose the state of balance between irrigation water demand and supply. This method offers practical implications for water resource management and agricultural planning in the face of climate change.

Rainfall Patterns in Indonesian Provinces During El-Nino and La-Nina: FFT and Lomb Periodogram Analysis

Indonesia is a country affected by the El Nino and La Nina climate anomalies. The provinces of Aceh, Central Kalimantan, and Maluku are three regions representing parts of Indonesia that have a variety of rainfall distribution and climatic conditions. This research was conducted to determine the influence of the El Nino and La Nina climate anomalies on these three regions by looking at the areas that have a dominant influence due to these climate anomalies. The research used BMKG Indonesia rainfall data with a total of 16 rainfall stations and a data range of 22 years. The methods used for modeling are the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) and Lomb Periodogram to obtain rainfall spectrum data. Then, the amplitude value was obtained, and a comparison of the data from the two methods was carried out to determine the recurrence value and the area with the highest impact due to climate anomalies. The results of data analysis according to the FFT and Lomb Periodogram showed that the highest affected area was the eastern part of Indonesia, namely Maluku Province, with the dominant frequency according to the FFT method being 5.61 years with a PSD of 7.67 mm2 and the Lomb Periodogram 6.06 years with a PSD of 18.64 mm2. Based on the average PSD value, using both FFT and Lomb Periodograms, it also shows that the influence of El Nino and La Nina is greatest in the eastern part of Indonesia; as you move towards the west, this influence decreases. The smallest influence occurred in western Indonesia. This shows that the influence of ENSO is more dominant than the influence of IODM.

Developing an early warning land degradation indicator based on geostatistical analysis of Ecosystem Functional Types dynamics

Identifying and quantifying ecosystem degradation and recovery is of critical importance for ecosystem health, biodiversity, food security and the livelihoods of local communities. Remote sensing datasets and techniques, particularly land cover maps, provide crucial data for capturing spatial and temporal changes, supporting informed decision-making and targeted interventions. However, these maps often emphasize structural rather than functional attributes and, also due to their thematic and temporal resolution, may not detect early degradation signs. This study evaluates the effectiveness of Ecosystem Functional Attributes (EFAs) and Ecosystem Functional Types (EFTs) as early warning indicators of ecosystem degradation. Using Sentinel-2 derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from 2016 to 2022, we conducted qualitative and quantitative EFA/EFT analysis on two fragile protected areas, Moyowosi Game Reserve (Kigoma region, Tanzania) and the Sheikh Jamal Inani National Park (Cox’s Bazar district, Bangladesh). Firstly, EFA analysis characterized vegetation productivity and seasonality, revealing temporal trends and spatial patterns of change. Secondly, EFTs served as indicators of change levels. Our findings showed significant insights into productivity shifts due to human activities and climate anomalies, identifying specific temporal events and turning points. Variogram-based geostatistical analysis highlighted changes in vegetation diversity’s spatial distribution. Integrating EFA/EFT analysis with geostatistical methods proved effective for early detection of land degradation, surpassing traditional land cover change analysis. Hence, the presented approach forms a robust framework for an early warning system, aimed at monitoring and evaluating environmentally fragile areas and aiding decision-makers in mitigating environmental degradation and promoting sustainable land management.