Climate Vulnerable Research Articles

Vegetation increases global climate vulnerability risk by shifting climate zones in response to rising atmospheric CO2

Global climate zones are experiencing widespread shifts with ongoing rise in atmospheric CO2, influencing vegetation growth and shifting its distributions to challenge ecosystem structure and function, posing threats on ecological and societal safety. However, how rising atmospheric CO2 affects the pace of global climate zone shifts is highly uncertain. More attentions are urgently required to understand the underlying mechanisms and quantifications of regional climate vulnerability in response to rising CO2. In this study, we employ nine Earth system models from CMIP6 to investigate global climate zone shifts with rising CO2, unravel the effects of vegetation physiological response (PHY), and categorize climate vulnerable regions depending on the extent of climate zone shifts. We find that climate zone shifts over half of the global land area, 16.8% of which is contributed by PHY at 4 × CO2. Intriguingly, besides warming, PHY-induced precipitation changes and their interactions with warming dominate about two-fifths of PHY-forced shifts, providing potential direction for model improvement in future predictions of climate zone shifts. Aided with PHY effects, 4 × CO2 imposes substantial climate zone shifts over about one-fifth of the global land area, suggesting substantial changes in local climate and ecosystem structure and functions. Hence, those regions would experience strong climate vulnerability, and face high risk of climate extremes, water scarcity and food production. Our results quantitatively identify the vulnerable regions and unravel the underlying drivers, providing scientific insights to prioritize conservation and restoration efforts to ensure ecological and social safety globally.

Mapping coexisting hotspots of multidimensional food market (in)accessibility and climate vulnerability

With the increasing likelihood of agricultural production failures under a warmer global climate, the importance of markets in providing access to nutrient-dense foods (NDFs) through trade is predicted to grow. However, regions with relatively poor access to markets and supporting infrastructures (e.g. roads and storage facilities) are potentially ill-equipped to deal with both short-term hydrometeorological hazards such as droughts and floods, and longer-term shifts in agricultural productivity. Despite the increasing focus upon markets within academic and policymaking circles, a regional-scale assessment of these potentially coexisting hotspots of vulnerability has not been conducted. We conduct a two-stage geospatial analysis integrating three publicly available datasets across the Indian states of Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, and Odisha. Combining the 2011 national census with the new PMGSY-GeoSadak database, we conduct nearest neighbour analysis to measure multidimensional market inaccessibility by: (i) distance from a settlement to its nearest village, town or city with a market, (ii) distance from a settlement to its nearest major road, and (iii) distance from a settlement to its subdistrict headquarters. We then correlate these measures with India’s only district-wise assessment of climate vulnerability to identify hotspots of market inaccessibility and climate hazards. We find that the three market access measures are spatially autocorrelated and positively interrelated at the settlement (n = 129 555) and district (n = 107) levels, meaning that settlements located further from their nearest market tend to experience poorer road connectivity and access to the subdistrict economic hub. Approximately 18.5-million people live in districts with relatively high climate vulnerability and relatively high and multidimensional market inaccessibility. Hotspots of coexisting vulnerabilities are also disproportionately populated by ‘Schedule Castes and Schedule Tribes’ (SC/ST) communities. The identification of coexisting hotspots has important implications for the development of equitable and resilient markets that bolster NDF access for climate vulnerable and nutritionally insecure populations.

Gender, Conflict and Climate change: Dissecting Gendered Vulnerabilities of small holder farmers due to climate change in the Eastern Province Sri Lanka

Batticaloa district, which is situated in the Eastern coast of Sri Lanka is identified as one of the most climate vulnerable districts in Sri Lanka and one of the districts which were directly affected by the Sri Lankan armed conflict of 30 years. Agriculture being the main source of income generation in the district, increasing climate vulnerabilities such as droughts and frequent flooding make the livelihoods of small holder farmers uncertain and making them vulnerable to poverty. It is also imperative consider the alarming rate of irregular migration in the Eastern Province and the trend of farmers leaving their land behind in search of a stable employment both within and outside of the country. Furthermore, the impacts of the adverse methods to control COVID-19 and the ongoing economic crisis exacerbated the challenges faced by farmers of Batticaloa. As United Nations Sri Lanka along with World Food Programme identifies women and migrants as one of the most vulnerable groups for the ongoing economic crisis of Sri Lanka, women farmers in Batticaloa face multifaceted vulnerabilities than their male counter parts. This study proposes to analyze the gendered vulnerabilities of women small holder farmers in Batticaloa district in a post conflict climate change nexus, identify the social, structural and policy level restrictions women farmers have to face on a daily basis as and to come up with recommendations which can help them to mitigate their challenges.

Coping strategies and barriers to coping in climate- vulnerable Bangladesh: a qualitative study

Abstract With the mental wellbeing of billions of people at risk due to climate change, more research is required to better understand mental health and psychological implications of climate vulnerability. This research contributes to understanding how people in climate vulnerable populations psychologically cope with stress with crucial implications for adaptation efforts. We conducted n = 60 qualitative in-depth interviews with men and women in Bhola, Bangladesh to elicit the lived experiences of a climate vulnerable population. We analysed data following the tenets of Grounded Theory. Through our inductive analysis, we found coping strategies where participants highlighted what they did when encountering stress, such as ‘Resignation’ or ‘Help Seeking'. Barriers to coping were, among others, limited ‘Efficacy', ‘Time’ or ‘Stigma'. We categorized coping strategies with barriers as high-barrier coping strategies and, those without reported barriers, as low- barrier coping strategies. High-barriers restricted participants - especially women - in their coping efforts and led them to using low-barrier coping strategies. Some low-barrier coping strategies can be interpreted as maladaptive if used frequently, as they are unhealthy and draw upon resources needed to adapt for the future. Maladaptive coping strategies can thus impede long-term adaptation by reducing motivation and the ability and willingness to act. To enable adaptive coping, we recommend lifting the barriers to coping through community-led interventions where community workers create platforms for sharing problems and knowledge, such as group support meetings. Sharing and discussing could strengthen efficacy and open new opportunities for functional, adaptive coping. As the negative impacts of climate change will be felt globally with more intensity and frequency, enabling adaptive coping and removing barriers to coping in frontline communities will be essential to supporting physical and mental wellbeing. Key messages • Barriers to adaptive coping strategies can lead people to using maladaptive low-barrier coping strategies, which draw upon resources needed for long-term adaptation. • Enabling adaptive coping by lifting barriers to coping in climate vulnerable populations is crucial to strengthen adaptation efforts.

Climate adaptation, vulnerability and rights-based litigation: broadening the scope of climate litigation using political ecology

his article examines the nexus between climate vulnerability, rights and litigation with a focus on the Global South. Reducing vulnerability is inherent to climate adaptation and the protection and realization of human rights. However, despite these linkages, vulnerability has been given scant attention in climate law literature. Through a more detailed understanding of vulnerability, we can identify a wider variety of cases that are relevant to why people are climate vulnerable and the potential for strategic interventions. Accordingly, using an interdisciplinary framework drawing upon political ecology, the article outlines two broad approaches to vulnerability: the hazards approach, based upon protecting people from the physical impacts of climate change; and the social vulnerability approach, which foregrounds the socio-political factors that underpin why particular groups of people are more vulnerable than others. India is then used as a case study to illustrate three types of litigation relevant from a vulnerability perspective: litigation on droughts, land conflicts and agrarian debt. These cases, though not traditionally defined as ‘climate litigation’, fundamentally concern issues of climate vulnerability, adaptation and rights. The cases demonstrate how different framings of climate vulnerability are embedded within the arguments and directions of the courts. Ultimately, the article argues that through a closer understanding of climate vulnerability, litigation can be a vehicle for adaptation by identifying and tackling the structural causes of vulnerability and rights issues.

The impact of climate vulnerability on firms’ cost of capital and access to finance

• First systematic investigation of the effect of climate vulnerability on firms’ cost of capital and access to finance. • Theoretically, shows how climate vulnerability could affect firms’ cost of capital and access to finance. • Constructs new climate vulnerability index and uses panel instrumental variable regressions to address endogeneity problems. • Use of comprehensive firm-level data in panel data regressions and structural equation models. • Sheds light on a hitherto under-appreciated cost of climate change for climate vulnerable developing economies. This article presents the first systematic investigation of the effects of climate-related vulnerability on firms’ cost of capital and access to finance and sheds light on a hitherto under-appreciated cost of climate change for climate vulnerable developing economies. We first show theoretically how climate vulnerability could affect firms’ cost of capital and access to finance. Apart from a possible impact on cost of debt and equity, which drive cost of capital, firms in countries with high exposure to climate risk might be more financially constrained. The latter results in low levels of debt relative to total assets or equity due to restricted access to finance. We then examine this issue empirically, using panel data of 15,265 firms in 71 countries over the period 1999–2017. We invoke panel data regressions and structural equation models, with firm-level data from the Thomson Reuters Eikon database and different measures of climate vulnerability based on the ND-GAIN climate vulnerability index. We construct a new climate vulnerability index and use panel instrumental variable regressions to address endogeneity problems. Our empirical findings suggest that climate vulnerability increases cost of debt directly and indirectly through its impact on restricting access to finance. However, we find limited evidence that climate vulnerability affects cost of equity. Our estimations suggest that the direct effect of climate vulnerability on the average increase in cost of debt from 1991 to 2017 has been 0.63%. In addition, the indirect effect through climate vulnerability’s impact on financial leverage has contributed an additional 0.05%.

Social representations of climate change and climate adaptation plans in southern Brazil: Challenges of genuine participation

Despite some honorable advances, a huge quantity of public, private, and civil climate adaptation initiatives have failed to work in the Santa Catarina State (SC), Southern Brazil. Consequently, the state continues to face climate impacts; sometimes resulting in human fatalities. The main objective of this paper is to present a case study (Tapera da Base) within the context of the project, “Climate Change and Vulnerable Populations in Brazil”, which discusses the problems associated with climate adaptation and relates these to risk-reducing activities. The methodology adopted involved: identifying local development organizations, focus group, interviews, and survey among families in the most vulnerable areas. The main findings show that Tapera residents do not associate the possible increase in their vulnerability to climate dynamics. They point to areas such as education, sanitation, and social assistance, as their most important local problems; thus not including climate change. To generate genuine participation it is crucial to creating initiatives that promote a social learning space for residents to evaluate their self-state of vulnerability and possibilities of development. Therefore climate change can make sense and the responses at the community level will be created in the context that shape how climate risk is perceived, prioritized and managed.

An assessment of climate change vulnerability for Important Bird Areas in the Bering Sea and Aleutian Arc.

Recently available downscaled ocean climate models for the Bering Sea and Aleutian Arc offer the opportunity to assess climate vulnerability for upper trophic level consumers such as marine birds. We analyzed seasonal and annual spatial projections from three climate models for two physical climate variables (seawater temperature and sea ice) and three forage variables (large copepods, euphausiids, and benthic infauna), comparing projected conditions from a recent time period (2003–2012) to a future time period (2030–2039). We focused the analyses on core areas within globally significant Important Bird Areas, and developed indices of the magnitude of projected change and vulnerability agreement among models. All three climate models indicated a high degree of change for seawater temperature warming (highest in the central and eastern Aleutian Islands) and ice loss (most significant in the eastern Bering Sea) across scales, and we found those changes to be significant for every species and virtually every core area assessed. There was low model agreement for the forage variables; while the majority of core areas were identified as climate vulnerable by one or more models (72% for large copepods, 73% for euphausiids, and 94% for benthic infauna), very few were agreed upon by all three models (only 6% of euphausiid-forager core areas). Based on the magnitude-agreement score, euphausiid biomass decline affected core areas for fulmars, gulls, and auklets, especially along the outer shelf and Aleutian Islands. Benthic biomass decline affected eiders along the inner shelf, and large copepod decline was significant for storm-petrels and auklets in the western Aleutians. Overall, 12% of core areas indicated climate vulnerability for all variables assessed. Modeling and interpreting biological parameters to project future dynamics remains complex; the strong signal for projected physical changes raised concerns about lagged responses such as distribution shifts, breeding failures, mortality events, and population declines.

Social Work Perspectives on Climate Change and Vulnerable Populations in the Caribbean: Environmental Justice and Health

Abstract Caribbean small island nations are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and some communities within these nations may be at increased risk for health and mental health ...

Climate Vulnerability and the Cost of Debt

We use indices from the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative to investigate the impact of climate vulnerability on bond yields. Our methodology invokes panel ordinary least squares with robust standard errors and principal component analysis. The latter serves to address the multicollinearity between a set of vulnerability measures. We find that countries with higher exposure to climate vulnerability, such as the member countries of the V20 climate vulnerable forum, exhibit 1.174 percent higher cost of debt on average. This effect is significant after accounting for a set of macroeconomic controls. Specifically, we estimate the incremental debt cost due to higher climate vulnerability, for the V20 countries, to have exceeded USD 62 billion over the last ten years. In other words, for every ten dollars they pay in interest cost, they pay another dollar for being climate vulnerable. We also find that a measure of social readiness, which includes education and infrastructure, has a negative and significant effect on bond yields, implying that social and physical investments can mitigate climate risk related debt costs and help to stabilize the cost of debt for vulnerable countries.

Socio-Economic and Communication Characteristics of Farmers and Farm Women in Climate Vulnerable Regions of Uttarakhand State, India

Socio-Economic and Communication Characteristics of Farmers and Farm Women in Climate Vulnerable Regions of Uttarakhand State, India

Vulnerability of Tea Sector for Climate Change in the Major Tea Growing Regions in Central Hills of Sri Lanka

The climate change impacts are becoming a prominent issue in the Sri Lankan tea sector. This study has attempted to identify vulnerability of tea sector in the major tea growing district of Nuwara Eliya in the central hills of Sri Lanka. Mean monthly rainfall and temperature, drought conditions and soil erosion of Nuwara Eliya district were considered as major variables in climate vulnerability mapping. Climate vulnerability map was developed using weighted overlay modeling in Geographic Information Systems (GIS) by allocating appropriate weightages for the main variables mentioned above for their influence on tea production. Rainfall data analysis for the study period from 1945 to 2005 revealed significantly higher rainfall variability for months of January, June, July, and August, which highlights the need of special management attention in these months. Around 65% of land extent of the study area possessed an ideal temperature regime (18-250C) for growth of tea. Land extent of 3.96% under tea was highly vulnerable for soil erosion in the study area. Less and moderately soil erosion vulnerable tea extent were 79.64% and 16.40%, respectively. The climate vulnerability map developed based on all four variables, revealed that 13.15% tea extent as highly vulnerable for current climate change. Land extent of 20.54% and 66.31% were categorized as moderately and less climate vulnerable, respectively, which could also become vulnerable in future, if present trends continues. Necessary adaptation strategies should therefore be implemented immediately to ensure the sustainability of the tea industry in the central hill region of Sri Lanka. Journal of Environmental Professionals Sri Lanka: 2015 Vol. 4 No. 1: 29-48

Health adaptation policy for climate vulnerable groups: a 'critical computational linguistics' analysis.

BackgroundMany countries are developing or reviewing national adaptation policy for climate change but the extent to which these meet the health needs of vulnerable groups has not been assessed. This study examines the adequacy of such policies for nine known climate-vulnerable groups: people with mental health conditions, Aboriginal people, culturally and linguistically diverse groups, aged people, people with disabilities, rural communities, children, women, and socioeconomically disadvantaged people.MethodsThe study analyses an exhaustive sample of national adaptation policy documents from Annex 1 (‘developed’) countries of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change: 20 documents from 12 countries. A ‘critical computational linguistics’ method was used involving novel software-driven quantitative mapping and traditional critical discourse analysis.ResultsThe study finds that references to vulnerable groups are relatively little present or non-existent, as well as poorly connected to language about practical strategies and socio-economic contexts, both also little present.ConclusionsThe conclusions offer strategies for developing policy that is better informed by a ‘social determinants of health’ definition of climate vulnerability, consistent with best practice in the literature and global policy prescriptions.

Agroecosystem specific climate vulnerability analysis: application of the livelihood vulnerability index to a tropical highland region.

In topographically diverse highland terrain, socio-economic and environmental conditions can vary dramatically over relatively short distances. This presents a challenge for climate resilient development strategies, as exposure to climate variability and change, climate impacts, and adaptive capacity differ between communities located within common cultural and administrative units. The Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) framed within the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) vulnerability framework (LVI-IPCC) offers a tool to assess climate vulnerability through direct household surveys. This makes it particularly appropriate for analyses at sub-community and community scales. Here we apply the LVI-IPCC to communities of Choke Mountain, located in the Blue Nile Highlands of Ethiopia. Recognizing the physiographic and climatic diversity that exists in this mountainous environment, we implement LVI-IPCC analysis for 793 mixed crop-livestock farming households using the five distinct agroecological systems (AES) that compose the populated area of Choke Mountain as a framework for analysis. For each AES, an LVI index, adaptive capacity metric, and LVI-IPCC vulnerability score was calculated. We found that each of these metrics varied systematically across AES. High elevation sloping lands and low elevation steep lands exhibited relatively low adaptive capacity and high vulnerability while midland AES had higher capacity and lower vulnerability. These results suggest that resilience building interventions for Choke Mountain ecosystems should be targeted to address the specific circumstances of each AES. The approach of applying LVI-IPCC at AES scale could be applicable to other climate vulnerable mountainous regions.

Subnational Climate Justice? Adaptation Finance Distribution and Climate Vulnerability

Summary This article investigates subnational adaptation finance distribution within Malawi. Malawi is highly climate vulnerable and a significant per-capita recipient of adaptation finance. This empirical study models distribution dynamics through “need” (climate vulnerability) and “government interest” (patronage). Results indicate those areas most in need receive relatively little finance. Rather, donor utility and the ability to absorb capital offer the most persuasive explanations for distribution across the state. These findings suggest that the distribution of adaptation funds do not support the larger goal of climate justice.

Climate change, vulnerability and adaptation experiences of farmers in Al-Suwayq Wilayat, Sultanate of Oman

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to give policy makers, professionals and researchers in Sultanate of Oman and in the region an understanding of the impacts of climate change (CC) related to agriculture and offer farming communities a basis for developing adaptation strategies. It is important to clearly understand and realize what is happening at the community level, because farming communities are the most climate vulnerable groups in this region. The information generated from this study is expected to be used by stakeholders, particularly the Omani Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries, to address issues related to CC and its variability in areas of similar agro-climatic conditions. Design/methodology/approach – Primary data from the study site were collected through structured interview, interviews with community leaders, and field observation. The participatory rural appraisal method was applied to gather information on perception and awareness of CC, vulnerability, adaptation measures of local farmers and communities to minimize such impacts. The focused group discussions approach was used to understand the attitudes, perceptions and existing practices. Findings – The analysis of primary data and the perception of the local people indicated that a shift in the sowing period has occurred from July to the end of September. This shift appears to be in response to the shortening of rainfall period and increased frequency of drought. A combination of adaptation strategies are in place, such as proper timing of agricultural operations and crop diversification, changing planting dates, the use of crop varieties, the use of increased water and soil conservation measures and diversifying from farm to non-farm activities. Originality/value – This paper provides valuable inputs for policy makers, managers at the Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries, researchers and other stakeholders on issues related to CC impacts on agriculture and its management through appropriate adaptation strategies in Oman and the region.

Local level climate justice? Adaptation finance and vulnerability reduction

Climate change creates a double inequality through the inverse distribution of risk and responsibility. Developed states are responsible, but are forecast to confront only moderate adverse effects; least developed states are not culpable and yet experience significant threats to livelihoods, assets and security. Adaptation finance addresses inequity by developed states facilitating/funding behaviour adjustments necessary for exposed communities to lessen climate risk. This article investigates the ground-level effectiveness of adaptation finance in climate vulnerable villages across Malawi, while controlling for disparities in vulnerability. Malawi and selected districts are both climate vulnerable and significant recipients of adaptation finance. This concludes a larger top–down multi-scalar analysis of climate justice, which applies the distribution and effectiveness of adaptation finance as a proxy. The study avails of participatory assessments to compare actions of villages receiving adaptation finance with those engaging in autonomous and informal adaptations. Adaptation finance villages: (a) address more climate related risks; and (b) enhance agency, security and sustainably lessen climate vulnerability. Conversely, informal practice villages attend to a lower proportion of climate risks and often develop short-term strategies with less enduring vulnerability reduction. Vulnerable communities receiving adaptation finance do change behaviours to reduce climate risk and thus secure local level climate justice.

A Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment of California's At-Risk Birds

Conservationists must develop new strategies and adapt existing tools to address the consequences of anthropogenic climate change. To support statewide climate change adaptation, we developed a framework for assessing climate change vulnerability of California's at-risk birds and integrating it into the existing California Bird Species of Special Concern list. We defined climate vulnerability as the amount of evidence that climate change will negatively impact a population. We quantified climate vulnerability by scoring sensitivity (intrinsic characteristics of an organism that make it vulnerable) and exposure (the magnitude of climate change expected) for each taxon. Using the combined sensitivity and exposure scores as an index, we ranked 358 avian taxa, and classified 128 as vulnerable to climate change. Birds associated with wetlands had the largest representation on the list relative to other habitat groups. Of the 29 state or federally listed taxa, 21 were also classified as climate vulnerable, further raising their conservation concern. Integrating climate vulnerability and California's Bird Species of Special Concern list resulted in the addition of five taxa and an increase in priority rank for ten. Our process illustrates a simple, immediate action that can be taken to inform climate change adaptation strategies for wildlife.